I don’t think any Dodger fan (me included) has any idea what kind of effort goes into prospect evaluation, player development, and everything involved with that. How much time do you spend each week on things related to the Los Angeles Dodgers? 40 hours? No way! 20 hours? What would your boss (wife) say? 10 Hours? Maybe… That might be what I spend each week… and that’s a lot!
The reality is that people working in baseball analytics, scouting, and analysis positions routinely work 60-80 hours a week. They gather information, and people like Andrew Friedman are charged with evaluating, processing, and acting on that information. Here’s what this looks like:
The funnel to Andrew Friedman is likely comprised of at least 40-60 people… people who are putting in 60-80 hours per week doing what they do. My point is that if 50 people spend 70 hours a week doing their jobs, it equals 3,500 hours a week of player evaluation. That is over 14,000 hours a month that Andrew Friedman has to process.
Do you think he might (maybe) have a little more understanding about player development and acquisition than any of us do? Maybe! Yet, he still is not always right! He frequently gets it wrong… as does every baseball person, because no matter how much analytics enter into it, prospect evaluation is very subjective. Sometimes you get it right. Sometimes, you get it wrong. The more you exercise your skills, the better you get, but you will never be perfect. Shoot, you may never get over 60% right. But, that’s dang good.
What is!
The Dodgers have what may be baseball’s best 1-2 punch which is Betts and Freeman. They also have Max Muncy. All three of those players had an OPS over .800. OPS don’t lie. If you have an OPS over .800, you are valuable to a team. Atlanta had six players with an OPS over .800 (Acuna, Olson, Ozuna, Riley, Albies, and Harris II). The Dodgers had four (Betts, Freeman, Martinez, Muncy) and two more that were close (Smith at .797 and Outman at .790). Next year, I would hope that Smith and Outman can both improve. Smith by maybe resting more and DH’ing more and Outman just by improving… and I believe he will improve.
Miguel Vargas: There are excuses, and then there are reasons. Two broken fingers are enough to derail even the best hitters. He was trying to play through it, and that was a bad idea. You will see a different player this year. I also believe that Busch will be on the 2024 Dodgers and be a valuable asset.
Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Emmet Sheehan form an extremely solid young core of a pitching staff. Add in Michael Grove, who may be destined to be a multi-inning bullpen arm, along with Kyle Hurt, and you have some electric arms that can build on that experience. Add in the possibility that Striker Buehler will likely be back, and there is only one spot open. In his interview with Dodgers’ Nation last night, Andrew said that Buehler was pitching very well in September. It’s just that he was taking longer to recover between starts, and that is why they shut him down. That gives me a lot of hope that Buehler will at least be close to what he once was.
I do not believe that Andrew Friedman will go out and sign a pitcher who (1.) Has a QO attached to him; and (2.) Who commands a long-term contract. The young staff needs to pitch. You could see pickups like Michael Wacha, Kenta Maeda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sonny Gray, Sean Manaea, Martin Prez, Cal Quantrill, or maybe Lucas Gilito, Seth Lugo, or Jack Flaherty.
Shohei Ohtani is rumored to be willing to accept a shorter contract with a higher AAV. I could see AF offering him a 5-Year $275 Million Deal with opts out in years there and four. I do not believe AF will pay him $500 Million … nor should he.
I would not be surprised to see this lineup:
- Betts 2B (maybe it’s time to just play one spot that should be easier on his body)
- Freeman 1B (he will have another monster season)
- Martinez DH (the Dodgers love him, and he loves LA-they can make it work)
- Muncy 3B (look for a .900 OPS year from Max)
- Smith C (He is capable of .900 OPS too, if he is not beat up – Is Feduccia an option? I think we find out in the Spring)
- Hernandez (Teoscar)/Heyward (both on two-year deals)
- Outman CF (If James can improve just 10-15% in strikeouts and pitch selection, he will OPS .850)
- Vargas /Busch LF (Time to turn their promise into production)
- Lux SS (all the way back… and more? )
That is a solid lineup. They could use a LHP in the rotation, and Landon Knack and Nick Frasso are knocking at the door, along with Ronan Kopp and others. That is a very viable blend of youth and experience. David Peralta was part of the transition year and was beloved by the Dodgers, but there is no room for him. I do want Kike back – he recently had double hernia surgery so that was an issue last year. Kike hit .375 in the playoffs and overall, as a Dodger, hit .262 with just a 17% strikeout percentage.
P.S. How would you like to be a Padre Fan? No manager, no owner, and AJ Preller as GM. Ron Fowler and his group own 49% of the team, but I am not sure they have the capital to buy out Seidler’s estate. It is almost certain they will have to sell or bring in a deep-pocket investor. There may be a “Fire Sale.” Stay Tuned. R.I.P. Peter!
I saw something on MLB. Network last week I never thought I would see. Someone actually arguing about how analytics do not give you the whole story with Brian Kenny. I cannot remember for the life of me who it was, but his argument was very well thought out and even Kenny had to admit that analytics are not flawless. This guy was advocating the eye test. And I am pretty sure the discussion was centered around the differences in the two managers in the World Series. Bochy is a gut kind of guy. He goes by what he sees, not what some spreadsheet tells him. Lovullo is the exact opposite. Roberts is a spreadsheet guy. He follows the percentages. Now a lot of the time, it works. But when it doesn’t work, it is epic and that is when the fans get restless. I always liked Roberts when he was a player. Why? Not a lot of skill, but a desire to be good and help any team he was with. As a manager, he, like most humans, has failings. He has made some head scratching decisions in big games over the years, but we all know he is following the plan the front office has laid out for him. Look at the day-to-day lineups. They are based on percentages first, then they take into account what some player might have done against that particular pitcher. I doubt that will change. But Roberts is only as good as the players they give him. Hopefully this year, he gets a significant upgrade.
Mark –
Lots of good information and observations as the Dodgers prepare for 2024.
Just in the nick of time for me since I am getting together with two life-long buddies this Friday to discuss “Dodger baseball.”
LADT is a real asset in my “continuing education” program on a sport I have been following for over 70+ years!
Thanks for all your work to keep me relevant!
Not a big fan of analytics.
Honestly, does anyone seriously believe that analystics can tell a complete story when you are scouting players for a draft. Too many variables. High school or college, not all things equal.
Now that the shift is gone, the game is better. Too many teams spend far too much time trying to analyze this or that. Too much data. Even Max Muncy questioned whether the approach helped or hurt the Dodgers in the playoffs.
Just play the game. You can over analyze all this and I think teams do. I found it interesting how the Phillies tried to keep things simple compared to the Dodgers. That was according to Trea Turner. The Dodgers provided lots of information and data, maybe way too much.
Looking for an edge, promote contact, less strikeouts. Tired of seeing swings and misses killing rallies. Of course the Dodgers can point to all the runs they scored in 2023. But did it work against them in the playoffs. Muncy mentioned that the Dodgers willing to go deep in counts may have been a problem.
I just read the Dodgers ownership is pushing for a deal with Ohtani. It has been mentioned before. But it would make sense. Remember the pursuit of the trade with Boston for Nick Punto and company. That was pretty much done by ownership. This may be about more than just a baseball deal.
I’m guessing the Dodgers pursue the lefty from Japan, which would make sense. Signing Jack Flaherty wouldn’t be a surprise. Lot of upside. Friedman will ink a couple of pitchers who some may consider projects.
Friedman continues to mention pitchers. Is there one he would be willing to go beyond the comfort zone to acquire? That may mean five years. Probably. Better to do it this winter than try to fix it at the trade deadline. Less players available, more competition due to the expanded playoff format.
Then there is the trade market. Some possibilities there if they are indeed available.
Not sure about Hernandez. Too many strikeouts. Do they really need more whiffs with runners in scoring position? Busch in left makes sense. Not sure where Vargas plays, but if his bat bounces back, he’ll play somewhere.
Hard to know which direction the Dodgers go until the Ohtani signs with LA or somewhere else.
Guys like Tony Oliva, Brett Butler, Tony Gwynn would drive today’s pitchers nuts. Butler would have hit .400 against the shift. As good of a bunter as he was, the minute that third baseman slid over towards the middle of the field, boom, he drops one down the third baseline.
Signing Ohtani makes great financial sense. He generated a lot of extra income for the Angels. Some think his impact financially on the Dodgers would be even greater. And hitting in a lineup that includes two of the best table setters in the majors, Betts and Freeman, his stats would be even stronger. He definitely would not be hitting leadoff like he did with the Angels.
Signing Ohtani makes great financial sense. He generated a lot of extra income for the Angels. Some think his impact financially on the Dodgers would be even greater. And hitting in a lineup that includes two of the best table setters in the majors, Betts and Freeman, his stats would be even stronger. He definitely would not be hitting leadoff like he did with the Angels.
Here’s a piece ib BA about the Astros and Scouting. It was published about a year and a half ago:
When James Click took over as Astros general manager before the 2020 season, one of his first tasks was to assess the state of the organization.
Very quickly, Click came to a realization. After years of cutting scouts under previous GM Jeff Luhnow, the Astros did not have enough personnel to sufficiently evaluate amateur players.
“The Astros organization has done a lot over the last decade to push things forward in baseball and to add new information and new ways of evaluating players,” Click said. “But at the end of the day, the scout being in the ballpark, being in the house, being able to get a feel for the person and not just the data on the field, is something that we place a lot of value on.
“And in my assessment, when I came in, I think the staff had gotten a little too lean. So we decided to add some people to make sure that we could get all that critical information that we need before we select a player.”
Once known as the organization at the forefront of replacing scouts with video and data, the Astros are pivoting and hiring scouts at a rate faster than any other franchise. The Astros increased their number of scouts from 27 to 38 in the offseason, an increase of 41%. They hired six new domestic amateur scouts, increasing their amateur staff by more than a third, as well as five new international scouts.
The Astros still don’t have any pro scouts, and their scouting department remains one of the smallest of the 30 teams. Still, their growth is notable. The Astros’ addition of 11 scouting positions was the largest increase of any team from a year ago.
“I think we’ve learned to keep the draft population as big as we can and scout as many as we can, and you never know what you’ll uncover and find,” Astros scouting director Kris Gross said. “It’s been very welcome this year to have a full staff. It’s already paid dividends.
“We already had a few guys pop up and we were able to be on top of it early. Little things like that allow us to be in on certain players that maybe we were a little slow to be on in previous years.”
The Astros were lauded for their use of data en route to winning the 2017 World Series and three American League pennants in five years, but the core of those teams was built through the draft with a fully-staffed scouting department.
The Astros maintained a department of between 45-60 total scouts—including at least 22 domestic amateur scouts—every year from 2010-17, on par with industry standard.
Those were the years in which the Astros drafted franchise cornerstones Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Lance McCullers Jr., as well as longtime future big leaguers Mike Foltynewicz, Vince Velasquez, J.D. Davis, Adrian Houser, Abraham Toro and Tony Kemp. It was also in those years they drafted late-round finds Ramon Laureano, Patrick Sandoval, Myles Straw, Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Tyler White, Josh Rojas and Ryan Thompson and uncovered lightly-regarded pitchers Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier on the international market.
While data played a role in the Astros’ assessments during those years, in-person evaluations were central to their scouting processes.
It was not until after the 2017 draft, with their championship core already in place and their farm system already flush with talent, that the Astros began cutting scouts.
There is a lot more on this, but I think it is behind a paywall:
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/after-years-of-cutting-scouts-astros-pivot-to-hiring-them/
And James Click is no longer Houston’s GM.
Of course not. This was 18 Months ago.
Thanks to whoever posted that link with the Andrew Friedman interview; that was a good listen (while having coffee and scrolling emails)
That was norcaldodgerfan who posted that,
Agree!
I just read that Ohtani donated 60,000 baseball gloves to kids in Japanese schools in order to promote the games popularity. Wow.
My opinion and prediction is that Ohtani will be a Dodger. I’m hoping on a shorter term higher average salary rather than a long term 10 year plus deal. All indications and what I’ve read it will happen before or at the manager’s meetings in early December. The Dodgers have everything Ohtani would be looking for money,weather and a winning culture. Once he’s signed Yakamoto is next. AF will not lose out signing him a second time.
The winter meetings start on Dec 6th in Nashville.
Sure want to think Friedman and co will make one big splash in the free agent market and another in trade for front end starters and shy away from reclamation projects and hate to see whiff king Hernandez in the lineup. Love Lux in nine hole and sure hope he can stretch out a triple with the best of em
Listened to Andrew Friedman’s interview with DodgerNation in its entirety and found the following statement regarding Shohei Ohtani extremely interesting:
“…especially as we try to blur lines internationally and grow this game, from a worldwide perspective, what he has done these last three years is historic, and obviously that is great for the game. You look at marketing dollars and opportunities in baseball compared to other sports and how far we lag behind that, Shohei has a chance to bust through that ceiling and create a lot of opportunity for other players behind him and as he does that will only help baseball continue to grow in popularity.”
I realize Friedman was asked to comment as a “fan of the game” and not as an executive of the Dodgers; however, we can safely deduce the following:
1. Clearly, the stakes are high and go beyond regional marketing dollars.
2. Friedman sees Ohtani as a potential ambassador for the game internationally.
3. The sport in general stands to benefit.
4. Friedman sees Shohei as a catalyst for other players.
While I still believe it is a long shot that the Dodgers end up signing Shohei Ohtani, Friedman’s view has soften my rather pessimistic view a bit. I wouldn’t be shocked if some common ground is found. Clearly, it is in MLB to have Ohtani play in a market that lends him the best opportunity to showcase his skills on the big stage. No other team provides that opportunity than the Dodgers. The real question at hand is how much value does Dodgers’ brass place Shohei’s internal marketing dollars? I believe MLB will put pressure on the Dodgers to make a strong push for Ohtani, but ultimately the decision will boil down to return on investment. Ugh, those pesky profit margins! (sarcasm)
What is Fraudman and Uncle Gomez waiting on?!? The Phillies are busy getting better ! Why wait?!? Lets get better while we can!!!
Yawn!
Ohtani signing will come down to Ohtani. Most of us agree the Dodgers aren’t going to sign him to 10 years + and $400m+.
Ohtani is making somewhere in the range of $40-$60 million per year in endorsements. He’s not just the face of baseball in Japan, he is the face OF Japan, internationally. If he makes the proper investments he will be be worth $500m by the end of his career. Barring some freak career ending injury that ends his career very early; he will die a billionaire and one of the most prominent sports icons in the world. And that’s even if he plays baseball for free.
So money may not be his greatest concern. If he wants to win, the Dodgers will give him the best opportunity. In the second largest baseball market in MLB.
But who knows? Maybe he likes the city of Seattle and wants to follow in Ichiro’s footsteps. And they are a young and talented team. Maybe the prospect of transforming a franchise like the Mets (with the deepest pockets in baseball) intrigues him. Or maybe he will simply take the largest offer he receives.
I’m sure AF will make the best offer they feel makes sense. I haven’t a clue if Ohtani will take it.
I will add, I have some delusional friends who are Angels fans and they are confident he will stay with the Angels. That will happen when monkeys fly out of Mike Trout’s butt.
What? Trout doesn’t do that?
10y/$400m is a bargain
From MLBTR:
Like the Padres, the Dodgers have a reduced starting staff. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn are all now free agents. It’s unclear what the future holds for Urías given an ongoing domestic violence investigation, which could lead to his second such suspension of his career. Kershaw recently underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain path forward, perhaps having to miss the first half of 2024. Lynn’s home run troubles were pronounced enough that the Dodgers probably don’t want him back. Among guys still on the roster, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both recovering from surgery and may miss all of 2024.
That leaves them with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own surgery rehab, and then a batch of guys who were rookies coming into 2023: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Nick Frasso and Landon Knack, who were just added to the roster yesterday, but adding some proven MLB arms into the mix is a sensible path forward. Heyman lists them as one of many clubs that are looking for multiple starters this winter.
Their payroll situation is far more pleasant than that of the Padres, as Roster Resource has them at just $142MM right now, along with a CBT number of $159MM. Non-tendering Ryan Yarbrough and Yency Almonte would cut both of those figures by over $5MM. It’s unknown how high they want to take the budget in 2024 but they’ve been as high as $280MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to stay under the luxury tax in 2024, the base threshold is $237MM next year, meaning they have around $80MM in wiggle room.
However, they may end up using a big chunk of that on Shohei Ohtani, with many observers considering them the most likely landing spot for the two-way superstar. Signing a player like Snell would also go against their track record. Despite their big payrolls, they haven’t really spent wildly on long-term deals for pitchers. In the past decade, they gave an eight-year deal to Kenta Maeda, but with a minimal guarantee of just $25MM. Since the Zack Greinke signing way back in 2012, they haven’t given a free agent pitcher more than $50MM.
Okay here is what I see Mark. Keep Betts in right field okay then move Lux to second base okay two positions nailed down. Then at first base you got Freeman and catcher Smith two more positions filled. Okay centerfield you have Outman almost every game but you do have Taylor still and Kiki so centerfield covered. Now let’s move to shortstop you go get Addames and Burnes from the Brewers okay Addames becomes your everyday shortstop then you still have Hernandez and Taylor and you traded Rojas to the Brewers so he will be gone. Burnes now becomes your number 1 starter okay. Now you put Muncy at third base okay and the backup for him you have Kiki, Taylor, then at DH you get Ohtani and then in Leftfielder you go and get Jorge Soler in Leftfielder with Taylor and Hernandez platooning your bench would have Taylor Hernandez Feduccia Heyward and a supeeise outfielder from spring ttaining why no Busch or Vargas because you use them ti gwy yii Addames and Burnes and another player or look at pirates and go after third baseman Bryan Hayes and Bedar you do that then muncy is thw DH ans you can get two starters in rotation . So get Burnes and Snell add them to Buehler Miller Pepiot and Sheehan okay Bedar could then be your closer so I think if they don’t go after Ohtani thank make a trade with pirates and Brewers that’s how I see it.
Whoa there horsefly. That is a lot of ifs. First the Brewers have got to want to trade Adames and Burnes. All indications so far is that they are interested in moving them. But they have to want what you are offering in return. Getting Burnes alone would cost you more than Vargas and Busch. These other GMs are not idiots. Kike just had surgery and he is a free agent. Soler is a terrible defensive outfielder. Brewers probably would want whoever takes Burnes and Adames to take Yelich too. Too much money on his contract. Snell is not coming to the Dodgers. Any player who receives a QO is going to cost you draft choices. His agent is Scott Boras and with Snell winning the Cy Young, he is going to want at least a 5–6-year deal. AF doesn’t do that. Longest he has ever given a starting pitcher is four. The Pirates are not trading Hayes. He just signed a long-term deal, and he is the face of the franchise. If they trade Bednar at all, it will be at the deadline mid-season. You keep talking about Snell. AF does not like doing business with Boras. The only guy with a QO the Dodgers will even consider signing is Ohtani.
Well I like my lineup way better then having Busch and Vargas both in it and then Lux remember last year 7,8,9, hitters would all strikeout we can’t have that this year’s I said Soler because he has power and hwy he can also Dh but if you have Ohtani when are you not going to have him be the DH. So a outfielder of Betts outman and Soler would have power and Heyward the fourth guy plus you still have Kiki and CT3. They have got to get a number one and number two pitcher maybe it’s Burnes and Nola but you saw in playoffs if you have two good pitchers it can carry you in a four game series I would prefer Burnes and Montgomery then Miller Buehler and Pepiot that would be the ideal starting rotation
Bradley, they don’t have Kike. You have no clue how Busch and Vargas will play. They haven’t had enough time in the majors to show what kind of players they are. Soler couldn’t catch a cold. Sorry, I don’t want that guy in left field. He too strikes out a ton and they have enough of that. Kike had double hernia surgery. No one knows how he will play after that. Nola has a QO attached. He is not signing with the Dodgers. Trades have to be wanted by both sides. You are throwing stuff at the wall and hoping it sticks. The Dodgers have shown no interest in Soler. It is said that they like Teoscar Hernandez. But he strikes out more than Muncy, Taylor, Soler and just about anyone else. 211 times last season. There are no four-game series. The Wild card is three, NLDS five and NLCS is seven. Just having two good pitchers means nothing and guarantees nothing. Bobby Miller for most of the year was a stud. But no experience. Montgomery had a losing record this season. He pitched well for Texas but not so much for the Cardinals. And again, Montgomery is a Boras client. He is not signing with the Dodgers. At some point, you have to let the kids play. Vargas and Busch will get the opportunity, if they are not traded, to do that in spring training. Those two broken fingers Vargas had last spring really screwed up his swing. He has hit everywhere he has played. All he needs is a chance. Lux is going to be the SS. The Dodgers have complete faith in him. You need to look at things more realistically.
Stan Kasten apparently likes the opt-out concept. In lieu of an extra contract year. six years instead of five, he offered Greinke an opt-out after year three. Greinke took the opt-out, and left after his third year here.
I would never offer anyone an opt-out; he leaves if he’s done very well, stays if he hasn’t, It gives the player far too much leverage. We know that the Dodgers somehow thought that Harper would take four years rather than the ten the Giants offered, and the 14 that the Philies over-offered, but which has worked out so far.
If you want Ohtani, offer him at least five years, they can work out the salary. If you mostly want to come up with the same team as this year, you can do that, and save a lot of money, though you won’t win a tile. There are owners out there who put up big money for star players. I know that the Dodgers gave Betts 13 years,. He is a great guy and fine player, but I think that was too many years for him. If Ohtani is all that. as the term goes, , pay him. Otherwise, go with Outman, who will hit around .265 with 25 HRs. and strike out a lot, like Muncy, whom i would not have signed, and]Teoscar. i think that LaDuca may be better than Outman, but it’s just a guess.
I would sign Ohtani for six years or so, sign or trade for a #1 pitcher, and a legitimate closer, and the team would have real shot at a title. I would try to sign JDM. I would not bring back Kike’ again. Treinen is not that good even at his best; we need a top closer, we haven’t developed one in six years. Just some thoughts.
Opt out’s part of the game now. Muncy is a bargain at 12 million a year for two years. And it is because of his OPS which is what most GMs look for. Anyone over 800 is excellent. I think all the talk about Teoscar Hernandez is just that. Add a guy who struck out 211 times last year? Dumb. He doesn’t hit enough homers to offset that. Two most notable opt outs the Dodgers have had, JD Drew and Greinke. My view of those guys is don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.
How bad of a name is Woo Suk Go???? He is a Korean pitcher that might be posted next season.
When we were living in Vietnam, I encountered the name Phuc Dat Bich.
Still don’t know if it is real or not.
Yeah, there are some real weird ones out there.
Mark’s lineup is certainly plausible, but I think unlikely.
Frankly, it also seems boring–pretty much a rehash of the ’23 lineup, but a year older. Lux, batting ninth, would be the “new guy,” except that he isn’t new. (Teoscar would be new–but I suspect he may receive better offers than what the Dodgers would give him to be a platoon player.)
So yeah, I’m hoping that Ohtani brings an extra jolt of energy. JDM had a fine season–but Ohtani is on a much higher level in terms of BA, on-base ability, power and speed.
Mark also expresses doubt that AF would sign any free agent who has a QO attached or insists on a long-term contract. I have my doubts about that, but it underscores why AF, in his quest for ace-level talent, would have to turn to the trade market to get guys who are under contract–a group that includes Burnes, Cease, Beiber, Glasnow.
Who should the Dodgers deal? Does it make sense to hold on to both Vargas and Busch if you envision them part-time players? Would you deal Cartaya or Rushing instead of Vargas or Busch? (I wouldn’t.)
Should be an interesting winter. So many options to consider.
They do not like giving up draft spots. Any player with a QO attached is going to cost them draft choices. If the Dodgers sign Ohtani, it will cost them 1 million in International Pool money, and their second and fifth highest selections in the 2024 draft. The reason? Because they are paying the CBT. I think that is one reason why he would sign only one of those guys. If they signed two, they would lose four picks. So outside of Ohtani, to me that takes the Dodgers out of the running for Snell, Bellinger, Chapman, Nola, Gray and Hader. Now they can sign the Japanese pitchers or any other free agent and not get penalized. I think they can live with signing Ohtani and losing two picks and a million in pool money. But they are not comfortable with giving up four and the pool money. I too think AF will chase a couple of trades, or do as he always does and sign a shitload of pitchers who are reclamation projects. But he needs that one big splash signing and the more I read, the more I believe that guy will be Shohei.