Change is coming, bank on it. Change in baseball is inevitable. There will be tweaks to the rules, from the looks of things, a lot of player movement, and somewhere down the road, expansion and maybe a team or two moving to a new city.
Rosters change every year. Just how much in today’s game depends on the number of free agents a team might have, prospects ready to crack the major league roster, and what kind of holes the team feels it needs to address.
The Dodgers at this point need some experienced starting pitchers. Right now you have four kids penciled in the starting rotation. Miller, Sheehan, Pepiot, and Grove. The only vet is Buehler. And just how effective he is going to be is a huge question.
There are two main ways to fix this. A. Free agents, and there are a bunch. B. Trades, and there can be a lot of options. But with so many teams looking for pitching, especially this year, your free agent options are likely to disappear while you are considering them.
Add to that a couple of very interesting Japanese imports, well, you can see that bidding this year is going to be exceptionally spirited.
The Dodgers have several talented kids in the minors, Frasso, Stone, they also have the shadow of Kershaw hanging over their heads. We all know Kersh had surgery but still wants to pitch next year. Will it be for the Dodgers or somebody else. That decision is up to Kershaw.
The Dodgers have left the door ajar for a return, but it would not be until mid-season at the earliest. We also know that neither May nor Gonsolin will be back next season.
I have to believe the path of least resistance is a trade and maybe signing one experienced starter from the free-agent pool.
The rotation at this point is RH-heavy. So they need a LH starter. Montgomery would be a great choice, but his agent is Boras, so I am scratching him off of the list.
Eduardo Rodriguez, who turned down a trade to the Dodgers at the deadline, is now a free agent and he says there are no geological barriers to keep him from signing with any team.
AF likes this guy, he is only 30, and I could see AF giving him a four-year deal. His last contract called for 49 million over the last three seasons of the deal.
I am also thinking his agents are going to be talking 5-6 years at close to or more than the Tigers were paying him. 20 million a year? Not sure Andrew is willing to pay that.
Snell is also a Boras client, and a 5 inning pitcher at that. He has had exactly 2 good seasons in his 8 years in the majors. He walks too many and is inconsistent. Hard pass.
AF loves reclamation projects and there are several on the board. Both hitters and pitchers. Giolito, Flaherty, are prime members of the we need some help group. And there are several veteran arms out there who could help most any team.
The rumor is that AF covets Teoscar Hernandez as a corner outfielder. I hope it isn’t true. Hernandez has decent power, but he whiffs way too often. 211 K’s this past year. That is 58 more than Muncy with less power.
Most fans want upgrades at SS and 3rd base. Lux is going to be the SS until he proves he cannot handle the job, only then will they consider a trade. They showed that last season when they did not re-sign Turner.
The only way I see that changing at all is if they had a trade with the Brewers for Burnes, and they had to take Adames as part of the deal. And if Milwaukee insisted on Wisconsin native, Lux as part of the trade. Otherwise, the Dodgers could keep Lux and his speed and move him to second.
The fans obvious choice for third is Arenado. Some problems, his huge remaining contract, diminished production as he gets to his mid-30’s, and the Cardinals having a desire to move him, which at this point they do not.
Next choice that I have seen mentioned a lot, Matt Chapman. Solid defender, definitely brings something to the dance there. .240 hitter, some good power. Only 30 years old, so he can probably get 6 years at least. Biggest roadblock to his signing with LA? His agent, Scott Boras.
Many fans do not like the Dodgers in house rookie solutions to 3rd. Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch. Busch has more power, is older and also can play first and has logged a little time in the outfield.
Fans were not impressed with Vargas’s debut this year. He hit .195 in 256 at bats. He did hit 7 homers and had 15 doubles and 4 triples. He struck out about 20 percent of the time, 61 in 256 AB’s. But in his defense, GM Brandon Gomes put the blame squarely on the broken hand he suffered in spring training.
I tend to agree with that. I do not think his showing is indicative of the player he could be. He has hit at every level. I will give him the benefit of the doubt in this. But I also think he is not a great defender at any position. He is going to have to produce offensively at a high level.
Busch is also an average defender. But I also believe with regular playing time, he will become more like a Matt Beatty type than a superstar.
I am not in the habit of making predictions, but I feel pretty safe in saying the Dodgers will definitely kick the tires on guys like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Imanaga, Giolito, Flaherty and Rodriguez for the staff and the DH. But they will most likely sign Heyward back. He and the team have a desire for him to come back.
They will keep their options open on Kersh and most likely JD Martinez. There will be some surprise signings too. I expect they will make offers to Brasier and Miller. But relievers are easy to find. Outside shot, they bring back Kike, and fan favorite, JT. Forget about Bellinger and Joc. Those ships have sailed into the sunset.
Did I miss it?
The theme was “change” and I don’t recall a single mention of Ohtani.
Are you testing us?
He mentioned it:
” I am not in the habit of making predictions, but I feel pretty safe in saying the Dodgers will definitely kick the tires on guys like Ohtani, Yamamoto, Imanaga, Giolito, Flaherty and Rodriguez for the staff and the DH. But they will most likely sign Heyward back. He and the team have a desire for him to come back.”
Not testing, I believe he and the Dodgers will meet. But where he goes? That is anyone’s guess. Most experts think he will sign with the Dodgers. But what kind of deal? Up in the air.
Great summery of our choices. Sam Cooke on u tube popped up whilst reading?
Mark added that. The new dashboard for the site does not allow me to do the story there. I have to send it in an email to Mark.
Sounds like if all MLB players hire Boras as their agent the Dodgers are screwed.
AF really does not like dealing with Boras. JD is a Boras client, but he dictated where he wanted to sign. Boras usually is just one of those guys whose idea of what his client is worth, is a lot more than what the team might value him at. One of the reasons most expected Urias to leave via free agency is the fact he hired Boras. AF has yet to sign a Boras client to a long term deal.
i just can’t get all hot and bothered about eduardo rodriguez! after watching him in boston it was very good or very mediocre. i kinda like marks cease and robert package. and why not try Wacca on a 2 year deal.? really good for the friars last year. snell is a boras client, montgomery too. so why not kick the tires on the japanese left handed? along with miller and a healthy walker that’s a very good rotation. and if Buehler can’t go, pepiot slides into the rotation. this is a lot of fun talking about trades and signings. all ideas have some merit, although some can’t be taken completely serious. i’m glad i’m not the GM signing ohthani! you’re either gonna look like a genius or a dumbass! it’s a gamble, but one that could pay off in the future. counting on pitching could be a fatal mistake. his bat will be a game changer, but if he can’t pitch his value drops immensely! he’s a dh about to turn 30. don’t get me wrong, i think he makes the dodgers a very dangerous offense. but as mark said earlier, will his body hold up for 6-8 years? 8 years at 320 million? yep, otherwise no. i know bear , that won’t get it done. just my 2 cents!
You might not like Rodriguez, but AF does. And he is a lefty. I like Wacha. He is a little older than some of the other free agents and probably would take a two-year deal. I mentioned the Japanese lefty, Imanaga, but I guess you missed that. Buehler might be healthy, but how durable is he going to be? He is a huge question mark. Pepiot should be in the rotation period. Ohtani is going to eclipse 400 mil, bank on it. Teams will have to decide what kind of structure his contract will have. Does he get less for one season because he can only DH? How much will the surgery affect his swing? Will his power be diminished? Remember, Muncy’s arm was injured in the last game of 2021. The first season after the injury, 22, he never really got going. This year he improved, and his power returned. I expect him to hit for a higher average and still deliver 30 plus bombs in 24.
yeah Bear, didn’t see the japanese guy you suggested, my bad. AF likes different guys more than other GMs , not a criticism, just a fact. like the outfielder hernandez, another swing and miss guy with no glove. no thanks
I hate to burst your bubble, but AF is NOT the GM. The GM is Brandon Gomes. AF is, and this is his official title, “The President of Baseball Operations,” Gomes just assumed GM duties this past season. They had been working without one since Zaidi left for the Giants. Hernandez does not have a gold glove it is true, but he had 12 outfield assists last year. He had 10 the year before. So, he has a cannon for an arm.
Just titles.
Gomes is the Kahuna, AF is the Big Kahuna, and Kasten is the Biggest Kahuna.
I think they all want Ohtani. But Kasten fully trusts AF and Gomes to make the more routine personnel moves. How much does Gomes do without AF’s approval?
Dodgers have so many options in both the FA and trade markets. And beyond the Dodgers, it will be interesting to see where guys like Belli and Soto wind up.
Bo Bichette?
I wonder if the Dodgers just decided to start that rumor to stir the pot…
Wacha has been injury prone his whole career. He has thrown 165 innings or more twice in an 11 year career. He has been good the last two seasons but in 134 innings or less. Flaherty is much worse – he has thrown 165 innings or more one time, back in 2019. Last year he was 8-9, 4.99. Giolito was even worse last year, 8-15, 4.88 but he pitched 184 innings. He hasn’t been good since 2021. Any of the 3 would be a flyer. The Dodgers have rolled the dice under Friedman on reclamation projects. Some have been good, some not so good. If it’s a short term deal then there is no long-term downside, but they will need new starters in 2024 and if one of the projects doesn’t work out, it could affect the team’s current need for pitching.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been a league average pitcher until last year, when he set career bests for ERA and WHIP. He is not a $20MM/year pitcher. I don’t see Snell – like Bear said a 5 inning pitcher who walks too many. Last year was the second time he threw 180 innings ( the first time was his other Cy Young season in 2018). He’s usually good for about 130 IP per season. Career BB/9 4.1, last year it was 5.0.
This is why I think they make a trade or two for starting pitching.
Loved JT, (past tense)
Okay, I really hate change. The days of Garvey, Lopes, Cey and Russell a distant memory. Fun times.
But I’m truly excited to see the Dodgers preparing to make changes.
I’m just hoping we’re not counting on bargain bin deals to move the team forward.
Will the front office actually make a couple of big deals or will they again shy away. History may offer some perspective. Usually they don’t pursue high end free agent pitchers.
But pitching is what they need, right? Although they do have some good young arms, plus Walker Buehler returning. They could use a lefty, maybe the pitcher from Japan.
Rodriquez? Nah, they’re not that hard-up. They’ve been linked to Aaron Nola. Uh, okay. We should just admit it, before it’s over the Dodgers will be linked to most of the free agents.
So, who really knows. But I like Nola.
As to Teocar Hernandez, he’s a strikeout machine, which would be great if he was a pitcher. Only he’s not. Just pass, Chapman too. Forget Arenado.
Heyman back would be a plus. Kiki too.
Play Busch and Vargas or trade ’em. They deserve a chance or in Vargas case, another chance. But I’m guessing one may be included in a trade for a pitcher.
But, hey, I really like Miller, Sheehan and Pepiot. Add a couple of solid veteran starters and maybe a a flyer, good to go.
Nice write-up today, Mark
Actually, it was Bear!
Good post, Bear.
Thanks Buff.
If Shohei decides against the Dodgers, AF could pivot to Chapman or Candelario and make Max the primary DH.
A lot hinges on Shohei’s decision.
While some players are pure mercenaries and want the top $$, many consider other factors. The Dodgers may have extra appeal to SoCal natives like Chapman, Giolito and Flaherty that makes the cost more reasonable.
In addition to Burnes and Cease, there could be deals involving Bieber and Glasnow, two major talents coming back from injury. Just because Thor didn’t work out doesn’t mean these guys would flop.
I fully expect AF to be all over the Japanese guys like Asstros on trash cans. Believe also that he will make some trades that do not include our top prospects. . He needs to do some trades for roster management.
I’ve read that Japanese players who come over prefer not to have their countrymen as teammates. I hope that isn’t true, and that Imanaga might want to play with Ohtani.
I expect that AF will trade a few top prospects because that’s what it will take to land the likes of Burnes or Cease. If AF tries to get Burnes and Adames, the package could include two of Lux, Busch and Vargas, as well as a couple ML-ready arms.
If the Brewers were to insist on Cartaya or Rushing instead of Lux, Busch or Vargas, would AF pull the trigger?
Stone not Grove in the rotation.
I see Grove as a long reliever, not in the rotation. But he started mainly in the minors.