Why Shohei Ohtani is not Coming to the Dodgers
It is fun to think about Ohtani in the Dodgers lineup. There is a lot of talk about marketing opportunities, reaching the Japanese population, and jersey sales. However, let us not forget that the Dodgers put more butts in seats than any other team and already are a marketing dynamo. I seriously doubt that signing Ohtani will improve the bottom line. Most likely, it will make that smaller number! So, that is the first reason why the Dodgers will not sign him. Oh, Andrew Friedman will be “all in” on Ohtani, but when push comes to shove, the Giants or Mets will get him, and it will kill them.
Secondly, “there is no Ohtani in team.” He may be the best player in the game, but getting the best player guarantees nothing. The Angels had the two best players in the game, and what did that get them? In some ways, it can be a huge distraction. It might even become a “freak show.” Thirdly, we have seen cracks in Shohei’s armor with this latest TJ injury and his oblique strain that shut him down late last season. If the Angels had been in the playoffs, he could not have played. Shoehei will be 30 in July of 2024, and I believe that he is going to sustain more injuries.
He is determined to pitch again, but he needs two arms to swing a bat. The odds of him returning to the mound being the force he once was are the same as Walker Buehlers’: NOT GOOD! If he comes back and injures his UCL again, he will likely miss a huge amount of time. The kind of contract he will command can cripple a team. I am against signing Ohtani. Of course, I will root for him if he becomes a Dodger, but I think the odds of him doing that are long.
It would be much smarter for the Dodgers to offer JDM the Qualifying Offer. If he takes it, the DH is set. If not, the Dodgers get a draft pick and can offer Justin Turner the spot. JT played 58 games on the field last year. While he still could fill in for a minute, I think he would be better off DH’ing the entire season. It would be a nice reunion.
You can take that $400 Million Ohtani would command and give it to Snell and Yamamoto and have a little change in your pocket. The Dodgers will get younger as Vargas, Busch, De Luca, Pepiot, Miller, Sheehan, Hurt, Stone, Grove, and others will command roster spots. I would love to see Kike come back, but that could be problematic. There will be some twists and turns in this offseason, but I think it will be interesting. “Play Hot Stove!” (like you are saying “Play Ball’)
There is much to discuss, including what can be done to help Mookie and Freddie hit in the playoffs. Life is best lived in the windshield – not the rear-view mirror.
How do you do Your Taxes?
You can start at the bottom of Tax Form 1040 – fill in a number (pick one) and then work your way back up the page, but I am guessing that there is no one reading this that is literally going to do something that silly. Yet, day after day, all over the blogosphere, Dodger Fans do precisely the same thing. They put Dave Roberts’ name or Andrew Friedman’s name at the bottom… or both, and work backward. They use this as proof that they need to be fired!
- Too much platooning
- Too much player movement
- Too many Dollar General Players
- Too many reclamation projects
- Players play too many positions
- Failed to make some trades
- Traded away some players they shouldn’t
- Made some bad trades
- Stays too long with pitchers
- Doesn’t stay with pitchers long enough
- Too many lineups
- Rookies aren’t given opportunities
- Rookies are given too many opportunities
- Too many AAAA players
- Yada, Yada, Yada
You can get your tax bill to be whatever you want it to be if you are dumb enough to start at the bottom. I doubt any of you are. But, some of you have no compunction for starting at the bottom line (Fire Roberts or Fire Friedman or Fire Both) and working backwards. You can cherry-pick your facts to make them say whatever you want, and the IRS will never come calling on you… It used to be that I might call you a moron, but in the interest of becoming a “kinder, gentler” blog, I am going to dispense with the word moron. Now, you really may be one, but I will not call you that.
Instead, I will use Hammerhead, Featherbrain, or Nincompoop! There, I hope you feel better… I sure do! I have a new direction. See, you can cherry-pick anything you want and twist it to fit your needs.. maybe that makes you feel like you are running something. Maybe it makes you feel smart. It actually does the opposite to others, but have at it! By the way, I can do that with any team and make a case. Try it and see… I could go back and cherry-pick facts and prove that the Rangers won in spite of Bruce Bochy, but I don’t believe that.
Dodger News
- Clayton Kershaw will pitch again, most likely in late summer, if at all, next year. At age 36, recovery from shoulder surgery will not be a breeze. I would like to see him end his career with the Dodgers, so maybe he does sign an incentive-laden deal.
- Watch for Yariel Rodriguez, who is now a free agent. He is an interesting prospect whom the Dodgers have an interest in.
- BTW, there are updates in the Top 30 Prospect list at the top of the page. Eric correctly pointed out that some of the prospects I had listed were, indeed, no longer prospects, so I fixed that. Thank you, Eric, for pointing out the error of my ways.
- I have not had any reports on the AFL, as there has been no Dodger player activity. Maybe they took their gloves and went home!
I think AF would be a featherbrain if he signed Ohtani
Okay, you make some sense and there are some logical points.
But I have to point out Friedman signed Mookie Betts to a 12-year, $365 million extension. Not only did he do it, but it was during a pandemic.
But in Friedman’s world, if he doesn’t sign Ohtani, would he turn around and spend that money elsewhere — Snell, Yamamoto, Montgomery or other high ticket players? Not so fast. Friedman being Friedman might work around the edges, work the fringe, go for the low cost options like Jack Flaherty. He might try to go younger, find a trade partner and then sign a less costly free agent or two, cross his fingers and hope it all works out.
Doing nothing, but working around the fringe probably gets the Dodgers another NL West title and a hundred wins. If the starting pitching holds up and the young guys come through, who knows, it might just be enough to win a World Series.
Will Friedman try to out Texas the Rangers and sign the big expensive and lengthy contracts or we will he try to stay risk averse, within the confines, remain flexible and continue to be Stan Kasten’s Braves. Always really good, but just short of being great.
Maybe you’re right, Mark.
Or just maybe, Dodger fan frustration is real and doing the same thing might not be the right formula. Twice out in the first round, eliminated by the division rival and runner-up, is really bad. Imagine what a third time will look like. Whoa, ugly thought, especially if you didn’t go all out to change the trend.
To Ohtani or not to Ohtani, simple advice; splurged on premier players with few red flags in their track records. That’s the best way to get exactly what you pay for. Then keep spending on pitching.
Do they need to sign Kershaw early or can they wait until Julyish to sign/add him to roster? I guess just adding him to 60 day does same thing. I agree on Ohtani, sign a couple of pitchers, sign a short term DH , leave more long term flexibility. I think Ohtani’s contract could be crippling for possibly just a DH and maybe just a mediocre pitcher ( TJ no guarantee)
Claude,
You were always steady and underrated!
I think the rule is, he cannot be re-signed until after May the 15th. Not really sure how that works. But once the free agency signing period starts, he can be signed by anyone, including the Dodgers. But it is in CK’s court anyway.
I think if Kershaw wants to rehab with a team, he needs to be signed.
Good points Mark. I’m think it would be better to add two quality starting pitchers, a pitching project, another position player, a DH, and a few relievers. This could be done for much less than $400 million. My potential candidates would be:
Sonny Gray – 3yr, $60 million
Snell – 5 year, $125 million
Flaherty – 1 yr, $7 million
Candelario – 2 years, $20 million
JDM/JT/Soler/Hoskins/Joc/Garver – 1 yr, $10 million.
Seth Lugo – 2 yrs, $22 million
Brasier/Miller 1 yr, $4 million
Kershaw – 1 yr, $10 million.
Total guarantees of $260 million, 2024 annual salary of $100 million.
Would add 6 quality pitchers and two quality hitters for half the guarantees of Ohtani and stay below luxury tax limit in 2024.
Ohtani is a great talent, but most are projecting that his career hitting year in 2023 will last for the next 10 years. There is significant injury risk that his hitting in 2024 will be impacted by his elbow and oblique injuries in 2024. Plus he will be 30 next year, and age catches up with everyone. I would rather split $500 million among multiple talented players than invest it all into only one, potentially great player.
I love JDM, but would not give him the Qualifying offer. There are too many other external DH candidates at less than $20.3 million, and JDM had injuries late in the year. The Dodgers also have several internal candidates like Will Smith, Muncy, Busch and Vargas to fill the DH slot. Plus if you give JDM the QO, the Ohtani chase ends early.
Interesting list, RC.
Just my opinion, which certainly isn’t worth any more than yours, but I don’t think there is any way you can sign JDM for 1/10. I think he’ll get more than 1 year and a higher AAV than 10 mil.
Actually, I don’t think you could get JT for 1/10 either or Soler.
Last but not least, I think your estimate of Brasier at 1/4 is low in both years and AAV.
But like I said, my opinions aren’t worth any more than yours. Interesting food for thought in any case.
I’d love to see us get both the Japanese pitcher Yamamoto and the Korean outfielder Lee. They’re both in their mid 20’s so we’d be getting younger and better at the same time.
JT just opted out of a contract that would have paid him 13.4 million. Why in the world would he come back to LA for a one year 10-million-dollar deal? Snell is a Boras client. He is going to get about the same money as Boras got for Rodon, who got 6/162. I think on the open market, Brasier and Miller both could get closer to 2/5 each. Kersh might settle for one year at 10 mil since he most likely will miss half of the season. But I also think he stays close to home and signs with Texas. I believe the Dodgers will be outbid for Ohtani by an organization that needs to add a big name, SF or the Mets.
Correct Bear some of the salary numbers may need to be higher. JT received a $6.7 million buyout when he opted out of the $13.7 million Boston contract. If he takes $10 million from the Dodgers he will make $16.7 total this year. I think Bowden estimated $10 million to $12 million for Turner.
Keith Law estimated slightly under $10 million for JDM . Maybe a little low but I wouldn’t give him the QO.
Soler will probably be more like $13 million per year.
But a solid DH should be no more than $10-15 million. Or just rotate the DH among Smith, Muncy, Busch and Vargas.
In any event, much less than $40 to $50 million for Ohtani as a DH.
It isn’t our money unfortunately, and as fans we have no idea what their plans are, but I guarantee you they need to make some sort of a big splash, and the two biggest, are both Japanese. Ohtani and Yamamoto.
That isn’t consistent with how Friedman and Gomes operate, but I guess they could change.
Flight attendants blocked from ritzy Dodgers charter for not being ‘blond, blue-eyed’: lawsuit
https://twitter.com/FoxBusiness/status/1719338655297245235?t=RBWzo2CRGEbGmCorXGM5uA&s=19
Mark
You’re welcome about pointing out those prospects. Anything I can do to help I will.
Keeshaw has earned the right to retire a Dodger but when was the last time he lasted a full sea?!? He should sign with the Dodgers for a very low price so the payroll will not be negatively affected . All of this indecision is negatively affecting the team. It is time for Friedman and Gomes to get Ohtani, Snell, a true 3rd baseman , and a true shortstop and go out and get a championship ! All of this oh the Dodgers were in the running to sign this player or that but another team gets him is old news! Time to do your job Friedman !
They have a true shortstop. His name is Rojas. He just doesn’t hit a lot.
As usual, the Dodgers and Arenado are being linked in trade scenarios.
Arenago will be 33 next year (April), and Muncy is arguably a better offensive player – at least he was last year. The Dodgers would have to up several prospects and pay him for four more years until he is 36.
Over the past three years, his games played have declined every year.
I don’t see it.
And as usual, there is no real reason to believe that is happening. His age, dwindling production and the fact that the Cardinals really need what he does bring, defense, make that scenario about as possible as Mark becoming the next Dodger manager.
He sucks
a. Me?
b. Arenado?
c. Both?
So many possibilities
I think that Kershaw will wait until he able to play before signing a deal.
White Sox decline the option on Tim Anderson. He is now a free agent.
He scares me and I’m fearless!
I like Soler. But remember he opted out of a 13M one year deal with Marlins, so not signing here for 10M and one yr.
Stroman opted out of his contract, the Reds cut Joey Votto loose, and the Rays put 5 players on outright release waivers. Curt Casali was also cut loose by the Reds.
Eduardo Rodriguez opted out of his deal with Detroit. and they made the first trade, getting Mark Canha from the Brewers for a minor league pitcher.
Is that the same Rodriguez who didn’t want to come to LA because his family was settled in Detroit?
Yes he’s the one and we wound up with Lynn instead.
Mark i agree with you on Ohtani.
It’s like going to the grocery store with a shopping list to feed your family of five for a week and coming home with a case of beer and a bottle of booze. You might feel good for a day or two but by the end of the week you’ll be feeling like a fool.
We could blow all our money on a case of champagne or get some meat and potatoes to really strengthen us.
Like Soler who hit 36 Homers surrounded by a weak hitting team
Well, the Rangers paid $325 mil for Corey Seager. Do you think team officials and Ranger fans are thinking maybe they should have spent the money differently?
20/20 hindsight. what about Trout, Harper, Judge, deGrom, Trea Turner, Rendon, Stanton, Yelich and, for that matter, Betts.
And by the way, Texas didn’t win until they brought Bochy in. Seager was with Texas in 2021 and 2022 and they didn’t win spit.
Didn’t realize Bochy got all the big hits. If Bochy was managing the Dodgers this year, they’d be the World Series champs, right? Uh, no.
Agree with you on Ohtani, Stevied. Just pointing out that Seagers’first year with Texas was 2022
Seager was a Dodger in 21. He did not sign until after the 21 season with the Rangers. He played SS in 21 and Trea played second after the trade. One reason the Dodgers did not worry about losing Seager was because they had Turner for the whole year.
You all like to look at stats. How about these:
Bochy has won 15 of 16 playoff series. He is 6-0 in elimination games and 49-21 overall (.700) in playoff games.
Dodgers are 12-10 in playoff series since 2013 and 48-45 overall. And please don’t tell me Bochy had better players than the Dodgers, especially when he managed the Giants.
Managing short payoff series is not the same as managing a 162 game season.
Okay, how about a deeper dive on your theory.
First of all, yes, Bochy is a good manager. He has been successful, no doubt will land in the Hall of Fame.
But you tend to ignore the contributions of GM Chris Young who put together the team.
He went big, shocking baseball (spending over $500 million in 2022) signing Seager and Semien. Then adding pitchers like Eovaldi and Montgomery this season. Not to mention others like Garcia earlier.
You mention the Giants world series teams, but remember the Giants benefitted from losing seasons, acquiring Bumgarner, Posey and Lincecum with high draft picks. So the Giants were pretty good.
If Bochy would have managed the Dodgers this year, would they have won it all? I don’t think so.
You mention Betts earlier. The Dodgers won in 2020 with Betts and Seager was the MVP in the NL championship and the World Series.
Seager was also the MVP in the series this year.
So big name players do make a difference.
But your point that you need more than just a big name to win it all is well taken. The Angels never had the pitching so even with Trout and Ohtani, they were going to fall short.
The bottom line is you need the players to win. You need the GM to put together the right mix of talent, fill in holes where needed. And yes you need a manager to manage the personalities and gain buy-in.
The Dodgers have many potential paths to reach a World Series, Ohtani is just one of them. But they need veteran starting pitcher so there is more to do even if they sign him.
Lots of paths, no easy road.
Yep, Bochy has done all that. But in the years, he did not have good teams, he sucked. Bochy has managed 26 seasons, in 13 of those, his teams finished under .500, which accounts for the fact that he is still under .500 during the regular season. Joe Torre never won until he managed the Yankees. Casey Stengel, the same thing. Managers become genius’s when they have players who are actually good. If Bochy is so great, how come his teams have lost so much???
You’re right. I ignored everything but Bochy’s record because all the other factors are not the point Chris Young spent alot? What about Cohan and the Mets?
You said you don’t think the Dodgers would have won the World Series this year if Bochy was the manager. I have no idea if they would have won with Bochy. Here’s what I do know: The Dodgers were eliminated in the first round for the last two years losing to teams they dominated and finished ahead of during the regular season.
Keep coming up with what ifs and hypotheticals. We can discuss this again (and again) after each season and come up with new excuses because it sure seems like the Dodgers don’t have a clue when it comes to October.
OK, I do not buy into arguments that have no logic, so I want you to explain how what Bochy does that is different and better. I don’t want to hear you parrot what some of the idiots in the media say like, “Managing short payoff series is not the same as managing a 162-game season.” I want you to explain that… how that works… or it’s just Bullshit! Oh, and keep in mind that Dave Roberts Ace has never won when they needed him. Please explain that… maybe I am missing something that you know. Otherwise, you are just another windbag. Here is your opportunity to set me straight.
Oh, and how many ABs and pitches did Dave Roberts have?
Also, how can you even make this statement with a straight face: Texas didn’t win until they brought Bochy in. Seager was with Texas in 2021 and 2022 and they didn’t win spit.
Please explain that because it is one of the dumbest things I have ever read, but maybe you can enlighten me.
Marc sorry to disappoint you but logic isn’t in play here. All of our comments are opinions and would not stand up to logical thinking. You saw my historical statistics regarding Bochy’s playoff records and the Dodger records. I have no idea what Bochy does differently. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bochy doesn’t either. We all have ideas and opinions. I can’t logically support my ideas and concerns nor can you. But remember what you (and Einstein) always say–“insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result”
Windbag? Really?
OK, I can accept your viewpoint. I get it. I disagree, but after that comment, you are no windbag.
Stevie, I’ve been following this one with interest.
The answer as to why Bochy has such a great Post Season record was clearly stated by the doubters earlier this week, and of course it’s totally logical.
He is the luckiest manager of all time.
I was listening to MLB Radio yesterday and one commentator said that Bochy established a good lockerroom and a culture of winning in Texas and the other commentator said that Chris Woodward had a good lockerroom too and what if Bochy had come a year earlier, would be have done any better than Woodward? The answer was no, although he admitted you never know. He asked if Woodward would have done what Bochy did and he responded “Probably.”
I am not trying to take anything away from Bochy – he is a good manager, but you tend to get called a good manager when you have hitters like Adolis Garcia and Corey Seager who OPS over 1.100, four players hit over .300, and your ace go 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA. Then you have guys like Josh Sborz whose career ERA is 5.50, put up a 0.75 ERA .
People tend to call you a moron and want you fired when your ace puts up a 162.00 ERA and your #1 AND #2 hitters (both superstars) hit .000 and .100 in the playoffs.
Some people say Clayton should have never started game 1. I guarantee that was an organizational decision and he wanted to. Clayton had a 2.33 ERA down the stretch. He was going to pitch 2 to 5 innings (whatever he could do) and if he had, that would have certainly energized his team. Instead, he did what Clayton does!
Bochy had Tim Lincecum who had a 2.40 ERA in the Postseason, and Madison Bumgarner who had a 2.11 ERA in the Postseason. The last year he won the World Series with SF he had 7 players (count ’em 7) hit over .300 in the WS.
It’s all about the players and beyond creating a winning culture and lockerroom (which is important and which the Dodgers have) a manager usually needs to just get out of the way and let the players play. Bochy did a great job of that… and yes, Watford nailed it: he is somewhat lucky!