Do the Dodgers need Shohei Ohtani?? Good question. I am of a mind that most of the Dodger fans would love to see this guy play at Dodger Stadium. Can you imagine a 1-2-3 punch featuring Betts, Freeman and Ohtani? Would be hard not to love that combo. Three thirty homer guys at the top of the lineup. But if the Dodgers do jump in with both feet and sign the Japanese superstar, what do they do with Max Muncy? Muncy’s option will almost certainly be picked up. It is for 14 million dollars.
How much do the Dodgers spend to land one of the premier power hitters in baseball? Lucky for Muncy, he can actually play a position on the field. Most do not like his defensive metrics at third. But he actually is a decent second baseman. His fielding stats there are much better. If Max is playing second and not doing the DH role, Betts moves back to RF full time. Lux is going to get the first crack at SS. That leaves Vargas and Busch fighting for the third base job. And competition at any position is a good thing.
Many stories I have read, especially over the last few weeks still believe that Ohtani is going to get upwards of a 400-million-dollar deal. Had he not had to have surgery on his pitching arm, that number would almost certainly be well above 500 million. The Dodgers will be involved. Not a guess. They have to be involved simply because they cannot allow the competition to just scoop a player of his caliber up without at least making an effort to see what he will cost.
They can afford it. I also believe if they are in on the Ohtani sweepstakes, Kershaw will not be re-signed unless it is at less than what he was paid last time. 20 million for an injury prone pitcher seems a little steep. But then again, the Dodgers have a soft spot for Kersh.
But do they need Ohtani? He is an asset as a hitter, but you add his pitching to that, and yes, they would definitely need him with what looks like a rotation with a ton of questions. Only Miller is a lock. Yeah, Buehler is coming back, but just how effective will he be? Gonsolin is done for the year, and May is not expected back until mid-season. And just how effective he will be after his surgery is a huge question mark also.
Ohtani will not be ready to pitch until 2025. But being ready and being effective are two entirely different things. Do they back load a contract to give him more AAV when he actually is a two-way player again? That is one possible scenario. I am pretty sure they would love to get the guy and stick it to Moreno.
Say Ohtani gets 35 mil the first year, and 45 each season after when he pitches. They still have close to 65 mil to fill in the gaps. I believe they will seek at least one other starting pitcher who can give them some innings. Forget Blake Snell. They are not going to give any pitcher more than three years. They could kick the tires on Giolito, since they love reclamation projects, same thing with Flaherty. I would love to see them get Montgomery, but I understand he is a Boras client, and his stock is rising with his performances so far in the post-season for the Rangers. He will most likely get between 4-6 years. Other than Brandon McCarthy, Freidman has never given a contract longer than three years.
With Ohtani as the DH, it opens up all sorts of possibilities. The concessions people will love it. Sushi at Dodger Stadium! Or the Samauri dog. He does lengthen the lineup. One thing I think they are going to need besides some starting pitching is a right-handed power hitter to go along with Mookie. Martinez, Betts and Smith were the power providers from the right side this season. 91 homers between the three. Muncy, Freeman and Heyward were the lefty power guys hitting 80. Taylor added 15 off of the bench.
Lux almost certainly would hit more than Miggy’s 5. So, power wise, they would be ok as long as they get another RH bat to help out. Martinez is probably the odd man out. His age is one reason, and he will probably get at least a two-year offer from someone else.
A few might be available as free agents. Teoscar Hernandez, Mark Canha, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader, Andrew McCutcheon. Duvall has probably the most power of those guys and he is a solid defensive outfielder. Jorge Soler has a lot of power, but he has a 9-mil player option. Guys like Grichuk are also out there as is Jake Marisnick who the Dodgers obtained mid-season. Then there is the trade option. It will be very interesting to see who some teams might make available.
Jonny Deluca will get some time in spring training to show his wares to the powers that be. His speed is his best asset. I don’t see Pages getting much of a chance until he at least spends some more time at AAA. His season was cut short by his injury.
I really have to believe it is going to take some fancy sell job to convince Shohei that he should come play with the Dodgers. But does he want to be in the spotlight? Is he happier playing with a team that has less pressure to win? I believe he is a competitor who wants to play with the best. That is one thing I believe will keep him from the Yankees. They are in worse shape pitching wise than the Dodgers.
I also think that the Dodgers are going to have to lean on the kids heavily for next season. Unless they sign a couple of free agent pitchers, they really have no other choice. I trust Miller, and I really liked the bulldog I saw in Pepiot. Sheehan has a lot of good pitches; he just lacks experience. Grove is more of a bullpen guy to me, and Stone, well Stone is a work in progress. He could end up being very good.
I say go ahead and spend the money to land Shohei. If nothing else, it gets the fans minds off of the lousy way the 2023 season ended and gives them a genuine superstar to cheer for.
A player the Dodgers could trade for is Harold Ramirez of the Rays. The Rays have 16 players eligible for arbitration, and their team payroll is going over $150 Million unless they trade some players to cut $20 to $30 Million off of payroll. The Dodgers should be interested in Harold Ramirez! He is arbitration-eligible in 2024 and 2025 and hits free agency in 2026. He can DH or play LF. He is a RH Hitter.
Now, here’s the best part. His splits have gotten better each year. Last year:
Against RHP: .281 BA /.749 OPS
Against LHP: .387 BA /.966 OPS
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha02.shtml?utm_medium=linker&utm_source=www.mlbtraderumors.com&utm_campaign=2023-10-21_br
If I were AF, I would see who they would want for him – I’d be on him like stink on a goat!
I read about him this morning. He is definitely a player to look at.
I have gone back and forth on the Ohtani “opportunity.” But, in one of the last posts from yesterday, DukeNotSnider made a compelling case for why the Dodgers WILL go after him. He convinced me they will and I think they should…
They will certainly go after him, but they won’t win the bidding.
He may still end up in LA!
Former Brewer Pete Ladd passed away yesterday at the age of 67. He was part of the 82 AL Champs. Phyllis Coates passed away also at 96. She was one of two female actresses who played Lois Lane on the TV version of Superman. USC’s defense is lousy. They lost a game they should have won. 2 two-point conversions missed and that was the difference.
I was on the fence about Shohei, but I am convinced this is one winter where Andrew is going to have to do something as dramatic as he did when he traded for Betts. Fan confidence is not really sky-high right about now. Kyle Schwarber is a beast. 461-foot homer last night on a pitch right in the middle of the plate. Unreal.
Good call, Bear.
Mark,
pure gold today from you … it’s why I read this blog
I am on the DukeNotSnider bandwagon concerning Ohtani … his post makes good sense in terms of enhancing a brand
South Florida resident and I watch many Rays games … Ramirez is very good and would look great in LA
What’s need got to do with it?
No, they can win the NL West, make the playoffs without Ohtani. World Series? That’s another story. Maybe, maybe not.
Obviously the current formula isn’t working. We should just admit it. They’ve won a hundred games or more in the past two seasons and have only one playoff win. Or you could say they’ve won 100 or more in three straight seasons and are 3-10 in the playoffs.
I suppose we could blame that on bad luck or misfortune.
Really good article this morning by Jack Harris of the LA Times (Dynasty Derailed).
As Harris points out the “culprits have ranged from subpar starting pitching to poor situational hitting, ill-timed offensive slumps to inexplicable superstar failings.”
That pretty much sums it up.
Which brings us back to Ohtani.
He won’t be able to pitch in 2024 and look no further than this year’s starting pitching meltdown to understand why the Dodgers are not still playing.
So, do the Dodgers really need Ohtani? In a word, yes. Because his signing makes a statement to the fan base.
But if the Dodgers intend to try to solve starting pitching issues then they need to make an effort to sign the other Japanese pitcher or Montgomery. Even both, depending what Clayton does.
Hey, I like Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan and the rest of the young pitchers, but do the Dodgers really to put all their chips in that bucket?
So whatever Friedman is going to do needs to be done this winter.
Yes, Ohtani’s bat will be a boost and it will act like a shot in the arm for the organization and the fans.
Not only that, but it will make Arte miserable. What more could you ask for?
But the Dodgers need to be all in for 2024. They need a Parade.
It’s okay to sign a project or two, but you simply can’t rest on that.
Supposedly, that’s what the lack of activity has been about the past couple of years. So sign Shohei, add quality starters and give young players like Michael Busch a legitimate shot.
106-111-100. And their record in the playoffs is 7-12. The beat St. Louis 1-0, SF, 3-2, lost to Atl, 4-2 then the last two debacles. Need has nothing to do with it, but just asking the question.
No, I don’t think Ohtani solves their problems in ’24. They need to acquire starting pitching, hope the young pitchers mature. Yes, he would be a great asset with the bat, makes the line-up even tougher and maybe is the clutch hitter they need in the playoffs.
But starting pitching is their biggest need. If the Dodgers don’t come away with Ohtani this winter, after two straight playoff meltdowns, it will be a huge disappointment to the fan base.
Not sure they can afford to further upset their fan base.
Look, I understand it’s player failure for all the reasons Harris lists. If it’s not one thing, it’s something else.
But it always comes down to the top and that’s Friedman. As he has said before, the buck stops here.
I like Friedman and think he has done a very good job. But two years in a row, the Dodgers have finished a whole lot of games ahead of San Diego and Arizona. But the Padres and the DBacks knocked them out of the playoffs.
Once is a fluke, twice is a trend.
I would never clean out the farm system like some teams do in pursuit of a championship. That cripples your ability to have long term success.
But they have approximately $100 million coming off the books, right?
Use it. I like the idea of making a trade for a player like Ramirez, if you can make that deal or some other deal that makes sense.
I should correct what Harris said, the Dodgers are “3-10 in their last 13 post season games.”
The Dodgers are at a turning point. Again, LA needs a Parade. Signing Ohtani, a starting pitcher or two, and maybe a good trade could be the key.
If nothing else, it will make a disheartened fan base feel better.
Good catch, Bear.
Thanks. I try I really do.
Let’s look at the Phillies this year. They are one game away from the World Series, and here’s what their top three hitters are OPSing:
1. Schwarber – 1.057
2. Turner – 1.224
3. Harper – 1.282
Now, look at the Dodgers top three:
1. Betts – .083
2. Freeman – .350
3. Martinez – .833
Yet, everyone blames Friedman!
It is always on the players, but most fans do not want to blame their heroes, so it goes on management. Oh, Freidman didn’t get the right guys, Roberts can’t manage a boy scout troop let alone ballplayers. Somethings never change.
Nohtani
I guess you are against signing him then? Many are. I have read numerous posts on X, formerly Twitter, and a lot of fans think spending a ton of cash on one player is el dumbo.
One thing is for sure Friedman needs to assemble a team in the offseason without GLARING holes, instead of needing multiple players at the trade deadline.
Peralta and Heyward needed platoon partners and Friedman only had Trayce Thompson who has never hit LHP good and Taylor, a utility guy for platoon partners.
He gave Miguel Vargas 2B and as I predicted that failed.
So he had to go get Hernandez, Rosario, Wong and how did they turn out.
I don’t know if you guys consider these guys a success? I don’t.
David Peralta .254/.290/.384.675 against RHP as he was brought in for. And basically the same slashline overall.
Miguel Rojas .236/.290/.322/.612
Yes Lux was supposed to play SS, but Rojas would have ended up starting anyways because of the failure of the original plan at 2B.
I’m not bringing up Peralta and Rojas as pertaining to this past season. Because the Dodgers ended up having a top 5 offense depending on what stat you use. Driven mostly by the monster year Betts and Freeman had and to a lesser extent Martinez. I’m bringing it up as a philosophy Friedman might have that he’ll use no matter what when he assembles the next team.
So getting back to my original thought. Friedman needs to assemble a team in the offseason without GLARING holes.
This isn’t a Friedman bashing post because I like the overall job he’s done.
By the way, I left out the pitching because it’s complicated AND all of the unpredicted injuries.
Peralta won’t be back, but Heyward might be. As for Vargas, he has less than 100 games at the big-league level. Maybe he figured it out at AAA. We will find out come spring because I fully expect the Dodgers to give him, and Busch extended playing time. Even with Vargas falling on his butt, I do not think they would have moved Lux. They need to find out if he can play there full time. Rojas will be what he was traded for, a backup infielder. They traded for Thompson in 22 because he was killing lefties at AAA. But it did not carry over to the majors.
Eric,
I find it extremely comical that you say Friedman assembled a team full of “holes” offensively and yet they were #2 in all of baseball in runs scored! The team that led MLB in runs scored is also out!
The Dodgers scored 25 more runs than the Rangers, 79 more than the Astros, 110 more than the Phillies, and 160 more than the D-Backs.
You are looking in the wrong places. They score in the regular season!
They don’t score in the playoffs, and of one final thing: You should be making A Million Dollars a year since you are such a great talent evaluator!
Sometimes I shake my head.
“full of holes”
No not full. Never said that.
“You should be making A Million Dollars a year since you are such a great talent evaluator”
No.
“yet they were #2 in all of baseball in runs scored”
Betts and Freeman monster year. Martinez lesser extent.
And here’s 1 of my 2 main points from the beginning.
“They score in the regular season! They don’t score in the playoffs”
Betts and Freeman go cold in the playoffs they don’t score. Reliant on 2 guys. Yes Smith showed up in the playoffs and to a lesser extent Martinez.
You missed my other main point where I basically said get it right in the offseason or you’ll end up with guys like Rojas, Hernandez, Rosario, Wong. Let alone pinch hitting Barnes for Peralta in the final game of the playoffs.
Pardon my ignorance, but how long could it take before Ohtani could hit without taking a chance of reinjuring his elbow? I’m just curious, I don’t want to see the Dodgers go after him.
It is a thing.