The only constant is change. Nothing could be more true than what is going to happen with your LA Dodgers this offseason. I am sure that Andrew Friedman has a plan that is better than mine, but I am willing to share my plan, and he is not. He just does not play well with others, and I do. So here is my plan for 2023.
- Sign Shohei Ohtani to a 8-year/$400 Million deal plus incentives for starts and length of starts in pitching starting in 2025.
- Sign Kike Hernandez to a 2-Year/$20 Million deal.
- Exercise the option on Max Muncy, and then trade him, along with Austin Barnes and Chris Taylor, to the NY Yankees for LHP, Brock Selvidge and LH pitcher Edgar Barclay. Muncy will play 1B and hit 45 HR for the Yankees, Selvidge will become a LH starter in 2025 and Barclay will be a solid LHP in the pen for the Dodgers in 2024.
- Make the announcement that Mookie Betts will become the Team Captain and the starting SS for the Dodgers.
- Put Hunter Feduccia on the 40-man roster.
- Offer Jason Heyward a 2-year/$20 Million deal. Do it now – take it or leave it. I think he wants to stay. If he takes it, he will platoon with Jonny DeLuca in RF.
- Have James Outman work with someone all winter to do two things: (1) Cut down his strikeouts by 20% and work on getting better jumps. He is really the only one who profiles as a Centerfielder, but he needs to get better.
- Let David Peralta Walk.
- Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch have to make the team – Vargas at 3B and Busch in LF as a platoon partner with Kike.
Here’s my rationale. If Ohtani wants to win and be a Dodger, make it a quick signing. He either wants to or not. Next, Kike and CT3 are the same guys… well, not the same, but close. The biggest difference is that Kike hits LHP better, and he strikes out less than half as much as CT3! I am trading away CT3 and Max in our to cut down on strikeouts and if I have to include cash in the deal to get two LHP, then so be it. Kike is a great presence in the clubhouse and bench.
Next, I just do it. I make Mookie the Captain and move him to SS where he becomes one of the best in baseball, and I use Rojas as a Swiss army knife. Barnsie has to go, and I am giving Hunter a shot. In order to sign Ohtani, I am going with platoons in LF and RF so that the rookies can play, and Vargas has to deliver at 3B. I want Gavin Lux and his speed at the top of the lineup, and I put him at 2B so he can just focus on his hitting and not worry about the yips (hopefully). He could have a breakout year. The rookies have to play to cut costs. Freddie drops off the roster in 2028.
The Dodgers can’t trade for Chapman or others as Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, and Smith eat up a lot of salary, and the Dodgers are going to have to sign at least one LH Starting Pitcher (think Jordon Montgomery). BTW, this is assuming that they do not get under the Luxury Tax Threshold. If that is a thing, all bets are off (except Mookie).
Here’s the lineup:
- Betts SS
- Lux 2B
- Freeman 1B
- Ohtani DH
- Smith C
- Outman CF
- Busch/Hernandez LF
- Heyward/DeLuca RF
- Vargas 3B
Bench: Rojas, Feduccia
The Dodgers’ 2023 bullpen was one of the best, if not THE BEST in baseball. AF will do what he knows how to do with relievers. The starters are less clear, but I am still saying that Clayton Kershaw will not play in 2024. Either he retires or has surgery and misses a year. That’s up to him.
The Dodgers need a LH starter, and Jordon Montgomery is obvious – if he can be signed for a reasonable number. Blake Snell is out there, but that does not seem likely because he has the Devil as an agent. The Dodgers will also be in on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is only 25 and could vie for the Ace Position in a year or two. Walker Buehler will try and come back, but we have to face it: the odds are not in his favor. He may be just another five-inning guy or he could crash and burn. I have no expectations except hope! Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone, and Emmet Sheehan will compete for two or three spots. Grove is a bullpen guy and someone whom I think will be very good.
However, Andrew Friedman has his own ideas, and he likes to get a player “before he becomes that player.” Most fans on this board look at what a player’s stats were last year and want him – that’s called “buying at the top of the market,” which is felony stupid! Keep that in mind! That’s my plan – there will be several hundred more during this offseason.
On Platooning
Most oldtimers do not like platooning, but if you just do it at a couple of positions and do it right, it makes a world of sense. Take Kike Hernandez: he hits RHP to the tune of .228 BA/.290 OB% and a .667 OPS, but against LHP, he hits .257 BA/.343 OB% and an .801 OPS! Jonny DeLuca is similar, but Jason Heyward can’t hit LHP. So, platoons are an effective way to put very good players on the field without breaking the bank. If a player can hit both LH and RH Pitching equally, he will get big bux. The upside is that (1) You get more production, and (2) You save money. I have suggested platoons in LF and RF only.
I agree about Lux and Mookie in the infield, but will depend on where we need him the most. Infield or outfield. We’ll have to see what management feels is the best defense as to who plays short and second. I think Heyward signs if we offer him a 2 year deal. After all he had retired already. I don’t see him going anywhere else. Peralta. obviously not back. He may retire. Will someone offer him a contract at age 38?? You didn’t mention JDM. Had a great year when he was on the field. Again could he get a better deal elsewhere?? Chances are he’s only good for 100 games or so. As for trade talk. That is for entertainment only
I did not mention JDM because, with Ohtani, he has no place to play. I also think his health is a big impediment.
Has there ever been another 100 win team that endured the worst bad luck we had.You lose your entire rotation for injuries of over half of your team starts.We lost 3 starters in our lineup of stars. I don’t know howwe win 100.If we do not sign Ohtani we have to Sign Jdm.
I’m an old timer Mark, and you are correct! although I can live with a Heyward/Deluca platoon in right, that’s enough for me. if Michael Busch can play left field let him. But if you commit to him let him play 140 games! Beating a dead horse, Barnes has to go! His bat is awful, and I think his defense is mediocre at best, but no Grandal, Bradley, may as well keep Barnes! Walker Buehler might make one hell of a closer! just saying!
If Busch proves he can hit LHP, then, by all means, let him play. Kike can fill in all over.
100% agree! being a UVA fan I love Taylor. but between Muncy, Taylor and Barnes I can’t stand much more of that swing and miss especially with runners on base. If Ohtani is the dh, okay! Lux at second works with Mookie playing shortstop. I’m still not sold on Vargas, but they can start there and fix it later if needed. he is better defensively than Max, but most 3rd baseman are. His bat has to play. .280 with 18-25 homers would work just fine! Good defensively and the infield is set. Snell is tempting, but he can be really bad for stretches. Montgomery is steady and could probably win 12-15 games in Dodger blue. Miller, Pepiot, and Sheehan comprise 3/4s of an excellent core! if Buehler is healthy let’s go! I agree, Max would be much better off in pinstripes! Barnes too!
Interesting ideas Mark, and moves the Dodgers can make.
But I do not see Mookie Betts as an everyday SS. Mookie is a great athlete and did very well at second base, but SS is the most difficult position in baseball. Mookie is now 31, and projecting him to be an effective full time SS defensively is not reasonable. Mookie played 98 innings at SS in 2023 and made 3 errors with a 935 fielding percentage. For comparison Rojas had 986 FP and Tayler was 980. Yes Mookie had a limited sample size, and he could fill in at SS occasionally, but I would not rely on him as an everyday SS.
The Dodgers have Lux, Rojas, and Taylor under contract for next year as SS already, and Kike and Rosario are on the current roster who can play SS also. Mookie is a gold glove RF and a solid 2B fielder. Moving him to be a below average SS hurts the team defensively in multiple positions.
I would not judge Mookies’ defensive abilities at SS by 98 innings and 3 errors. If he gets the reps, he will do fine.
I also happen to believe that RF is much more physically difficult than SS.
I agree. Less chance of injury in the infield. Crashing into walls, and diving on the warning track for balls can be detrimental to your health, and Lux has proven he can handle second base.
Not bad ideas, Mark.
I think Kershaw wants to play, but he will spend time determining whether the balky shoulder will allow him to do it at a high level. If not, he retires. I think we should all understand the Dodger payroll budget is fluid, nothing set. A lot of money coming off the books. Everyone assumed that last winter’s “all quiet” approach by the Dodgers was a precursor to the Ohtani deal.
Obviously, both national and local pundits, experts and writers have speculated that is what is happening, helped by leaks or indications from inside the organization that was the plan, maybe it still is the goal.
But one thing is for sure, the Dodgers probably need to make a splash after two dismal showings in the playoffs.
Are we at an Adrian Gonzalez moment? LA needs to make a statement and the bigger, the better.
The Dodgers have proven they don’t need a mega deal with a player or two to win the NL West and even if they make one, it does not guarantee they fare any better in October.
All this may intrigue Ohtani. The Dodgers always get to the playoffs, but he would have the opportunity to put them over the top.
Maybe the headlines in today’s LA Times Sports letters section, filled with mostly letters about the Dodgers, of course, says it all. It reads “They’re done with the Dodgers … until next free agent signing.”
So maybe this is the moment where the Dodgers again need to make a big splash. One thing for sure, the Dodgers need to show through action they intend to compete for a World Series Championship.
Maybe signing big free agents isn’t the solution, but it hasn’t exactly hurt the Phillies, who signed Trea Turner for $300 million last winter after giving Harper a $300 million plus free agent deal.
It has apparently paid dividends for the Texas Rangers. Then, of course, there are the New York Mets. No real plan other than flexing financial muscle. That was bound to go bad.
First the Dodgers need to figure out the 40-man roster and options they need to exercise or decline.
I expect Max Muncy to return. His $10 million option will be easy for Friedman. Yes, he strikes out way to much, but they will look at his power and plate discipline, his ability to play multiple positions. Done deal. I don’t think they trade him.
Okay, Gavin Lux gets the the nod at shortstop, backed by Miguel Rojas. I think they keep Austin Barnes too.
Jordan Montgomery would makes some sense for the Dodgers, steady and consistent. But he also probably makes sense for a lot of teams. Then there is Japanese hurler Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is both young and talented. As to a lefty starter that may depend on Kershaw and his shoulder. No matter what, Yamamoto seems to be a likely fit.
The return of Walker Buehler and Ryan Pepiot seem to resolve some starter issues. From the time Pepiot debuted in August until the end of the season, only five MLB pitchers had a lower ERA for 40 innings or more. Maybe Emmett Sheehan is part of the rotation. Yes, he was inconsistent, but opponents hit only .210 and he struck out a batter per inning.
As to Michael Busch, his fate may be tied to whether the Dodgers ink Ohtani or move Muncy or re-sign JD Martinez. Maybe Busch is an option at DH. Otherwise, he may be the big piece in a trade.
Both Jason Heyward and Kike Hernandez would certainly be welcomed back. As to the big trades that might occur, no question the Dodgers will be working that market hard.
No matter what, the Dodgers will be seeking to make a splash or two.
Buff, Muncy’s option is 14 million. He met all the requirements for the boost.
Good to know, Bear, I got the $10 mil from JP Hoonstra in this morning’s Daily News.
I always check their baseball reference page and Spotrac has up to the minute updates.
As I said earlier, too many .220-230 hitters! Barnes needs to go ! Taylor and Muncy need to go. Peralta is gone. Kike , utility, ok. there is no need for Barnes with Hunter ready in minors. can’t hit any worse. and like said, Barnes isn’t all that behind the plate.
Actually, Barnes is an excellent defensive catcher. He calls a great game, and he rarely has a passed ball. The biggest deficiency in his catching is his caught stealing percentage which this season was 11%. But a lot of that is because of the new rules and the fact that many Dodger pitchers suck at holding runners. Will Smith also had that problem. His percentage was 21. Both are excellent at keeping balls in front of them and not allowing passed balls. Smith had 2 and Barnes, 3. Feduccia is also a fine defensive catcher. At AAA. No one has any idea how he might fare in the majors. Barnes is signed for next season. Unless they decide to include him in a trade, he will be back since he is the perfect backup catcher with excellent defense. Now, the best thing for Barnes is to go back to being the contact type hitter he was when he first came up. Many forget Barnes replaced Grandal during the 2017 post season because of Grandal’s lack of production that year.
Interesting Mark and thought provoking too. I am of the mind that if they sign more than one big ticket free agent, I will be totally surprised. But change is needed. All up and down the chain.
Respect the heck out you Bear! but I disagree with you on Barnes. change of scenery might do both parties good!
No problem, I am just saying the guy is one of management’s favorites or he would not have gotten a two-year deal. For them he is low cost while their best prospects, and Feduccia is not one of them, mature and get experience.
Buehler, May and Ohtani, will be their second tommy John and from things I’ve read from doctors who have performed the operation aren’t that confident about success rate after a second one so with that I’d be hesitant to put a lot of hope in them ever getting back to where they were and if they get close to it for how long. And personally I wouldn’t put much stock in Lux ever being the same after that horrific injury. Of course I wish them all the best and hope they come back like it never happened. I only mention this due to seeing them mentioned in all these predicted lineups like these serious injuries don’t play a part
Agree Michael. I was just going to mention that about Ohtani and second TJ surgeries, but you beat me to it.
50 million a year for eight years is a lot to pay for a DH.
I do like most of Mark’s other ideas though
We shall see what the market dictates. It may be less.
Yes it be a dope fiend move to sign a DH for fifty mil hoping he bucks the odds in future years in regaining his pitching form. Hell we don’t even know if he wouldn’t melt away in the playoffs like Mookie’s been doing. If could guarantee he’d play like Harper or Alvarez when it counted most I’d say sign him quick and gosh think of the other talent could acquire for fifty mil
I fear he might be like Pujols. Not worth a lonnnng term deal
Here’s what I would do:
1. Go after Ohtani and the Japanese pitcher.
2. Exercise Muncy option–he’s either full-time DH or back-up to rookie 3b/2b combo of Vargas/Busch.
3. Let Kershaw walk.
4. Give Lux SS.
5. Sign an offensive-minded LF for one year.
6. Add a high-end veteran SP on short-term deal.
7. Trade Barnes and give Feduccia job.
8. Keep developing the prospects.
9. Grow the next closer from within: Graterol, Hurt, Frasso.
10. Consider replacing Roberts.
No
Yes
* There’s been plenty of complaining after our early playoff exit. Many complaints revolve around AF not adding much last off-season and particularly at the Trade Deadline. There’s wasn’t much help actually, especially for the money. What seems to be forgotten is this was the year to cut payroll, even get under the “ceiling” and look to spend smartly this off season. We didn’t even know what our payroll was due to the Bauer decision left blowing in the wind for far too long. AF likes reclamation projects but much of that was to conserve money. Whether it’s for Ohtani or other proven players, we have the money now. We know more about our youngsters and their trade value to fill needs. This was the plan from the Git-Go and AF stuck to the plan and didn’t deviate from the mission to whittle salary. I can’t wait to see how we use that cash and trade pieces this winter.
* I’m an “old-timer” but I am absolutely not opposed to change and progress. With few exceptions, I think the game has never been better. My comments yesterday opposed to all the fraternization in today’s game was more of a history lesson of how things have changed. A history sharing, as opposed to complaining about the change. It is what it is. I was instructed to “get over it”. I’m not sure what it is I’m supposed to get over.
I did play before free agency in an old wool horse-blanket uniform at first. I’ve watched the game evolve to its current state, having played and coached for 35+ years and watch intently forever. The game is better now in many ways. The rules are better, the players are better, the coaching is way better, The technology is better and the crowds are better. There are things I don’t love about today’s game but I’m not stuck in 1970.
* I’m not opposed to platoons in general, just our platoons. My problem with our platoons is really the one in left field. I was okay with Mookie and Heyward in right. Heyward’s .276 vs RHP is solid. Kike’s splits are negligible as are Outman’s. CT3 was the weak link in that platoon. He hit .210 vs LHP. Both he an Peralta hit the same vs RHP, .254 & .255. Peralta had limited AB’s and is a career .241 hitter vs LHP, still better than CT3. Also Doc became way too quick and predictable with the replacements. Lovely flipped our line up in the 4th by going to a LHP anytime he wanted.
Mark has some interesting ideas for 2024. Many I agree with. Some not so much:
* CT3 needs to go. It’s redundant with Kike and the proposal of Rojas being another utility guy. We don’t need 3 and CT3 is the most expensive one, and more so given his lack of contact. Muncy needs a new home and Feduccia needs to be the backup catcher for at least a year.
* I’m not excited about Mookie at SS. I like him at 2nd. Mark thinks he would improve there over what he has shown in a limited bases. I also think it’s equally possible that he won’t. I would live with Rojas and his hands.
* If Lux can move around on his repaired knee, I’d trade him. He’s not a good infielder defensively. His bat my be valuable as a trade piece or an outfielder. Like Busch, and perhaps Vargas, he doesn’t have a position. One of those guys needs to earn the job at 3rd or package them all up and trade for a proven 3rd baseman who can hit.
* I’m not convinced that Ohtani is worth the asking price. I think we could add some quality position players including a solid everyday DH for $400 million.
* We definitely need one or two quality LHSP. Top shelf. Not a reclamation project. Beyond that with our returning pitchers, minus Kershaw, we should be outstanding when they get healthy. Beuhler and eventually May could make a big difference.
* I loved this regular season. It was as fun as any in recent memory. This team absolutely overachieved given the circumstances. Great group in the clubhouse, synergy, chemistry and fun. That’s not going away. The end was a major bummer but we weren’t good enough.
* As I mentioned the anomaly was winning 100 games; Not losing 3 straight in the playoffs.
Good points Phil.
The Dodgers absolutely over achieved in the regular season, and they have high character players with good chemistry. The team overcame so many injuries and setbacks including Lux, May, Gonsolin, Urias, Kershaw, Hudson, Treinen, and Bauer who was their 3rd highest paid player this year.
It was still very discouraging to get knocked out of the playoffs by an inferior team for the third year in a row, and the 4th time in 5 years. Since 2019, the Dodgers have lost to teams who finished 12 to 21 games worse than them in the regular season. The Dodgers have lost 3 playoff series in a row and are 3-10 in those series.
The organization needs to take responsibility for these failures and put players and coaches on the field who will perform in the playoffs. Arguably, the two biggest at bats in the series were taken by pinch hitters Austin Barnes and Kolten Wong who batted 180 and 183 this season. Surely with a payroll of $250 million, the Dodgers can do better.
None of us know how Ohtani, or anyone for that matter, will perform on the biggest stage, until he gets there and does it or doesn’t do it.
However, I’d say the World Baseball Classic this past March was a pretty big stage. And here’s what Shohei Ohtani did:
435/. 606/. 739 with four doubles, a home run, and 10 walks in the tournament while also pitching to a 1.86 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. Ohtani was, truly, the best hitter and pitcher in the WBC.
Yea, I’ll trust him to rise to the occasion in the World Series.
Something else to consider. If he was that spectacular on the big stage, think of how much better his average season would be playing here instead of in Anaheim where they knew by the All Star break most years that their season was over with.
I find it interesting that posters say we should trade Barnes. Please post a potential suiter and the trade that we could make. Barnes attributes- Can’t throw out anyone and bats under .200. Ok he is good at blocking pitches
I posted the trade I would make. Read what I wrote!
Attach a prospect to him.
Here is what I would do in the off-season.
As a Bear fan, I’m looking at scenarios where the Bears suck enough (they do) and get the top two picks in the draft. All the while, I’m going to occasionally watch the Lakers and be reminded how much I don’t like Lebron James. And that the NBA from my childhood is now garbage. I will also watch some hockey. When I’ve had a few too many.
49ers suck. Screw them.
Watch any team not the named the 49ers or Packers in the SB.
Get ready for Spring Training.
So that’s my plan.
And make Outman strikeout less.
Some bold thinking here!
And not at all moronic!
I like about 85% of Mark’s plan. But there are a couple of assumptions that perhaps should not be assumed.
Is Mookie a top-tier SS?
Certainly offensively he is there. On defense, he might well be second only to Rojas on this team. Mookie is the de facto captain already. Making it official seems like a positive move.
Should Vargas take over 3B?
I think Vargas would be a better choice at 3B than Busch–but Vargas still hasn’t proved he can hit big-league pitching. (Neither has Busch, but it’s a much smaller sample.) A lot of people are understandably down on Max’s defense, but we have little reason to think Vargas would be better.
I’m fine with trading Max if there’s a good return–and if 3B doesn’t become a problem. I know nothing about the Yankees’ lefties, but lefty SPs are clearly a need. (Too bad AF didn’t get Jordan Montgomery at midseason. Kudos to the Rangers.) I wouldn’t rule out Matt Chapman for 3B. His price has come down because of a poor second half, and he’s a SoCal boy. I think AF kicks the tires.
Will Lux make a successful return?
I think so, and I don’t rule out SS for him, with Mookie again doing the 2B/RF shuttle. Remember the extra muscle Lux added? I assume that hasn’t melted away, and I assume the rebuilt ACL will slow him down a bit.
At any rate, I don’t see Lux squeezing into the top of the lineup. His on-base % has been good, but Mookie, Freddie and Shohei have been significantly better. The Dodgers would go from having the best 1-2 punch in the game to the best 1-2-3 combination. (And Ohtani is the fastest.)
So maybe …
Mookie SS (yeah, why not?)
Freddie 1B (duh)
Shohei DH (fingers crossed)
Will C
Outman CF (his second half rebound was encouraging)
DeLuca/ Heyward RF
Vargas 3B (if he hits) –but don’t rule out Max or Chapman
Busch/Kike LF
Lux 2B (second leadoff)
Seems that we are assuming Kershaw will retire or move on to the Rangers We already know that Julio is history. So the Dodgers should be shopping for LH starters. But I also wonder if they’ll consider fast-tracking Maddux Bruns, the first-round pick who is proving himself at the lower levels. He may be a year or two away, but let’s remember that Julio was only 19 when he broke in, and Kershaw was 20.
Right now Bruns is 21.
I wrote that Bruns is “proving himself” at the lower levels.
Well, yes and no.
His raw talent is impressive, but he needs to work on his control. In 2023, he struck out 126 in 97 innings, but walked 67 and gave up 7 HRs.
But if he can fix the flaws…
Well I got on here late but I think they need a legit third baseman a legit second baseman and a Leftfielder and Betts stays in right field outman in center field resign Kiki trade Muncy Barnes Taylor and Busch to like the pirates and lets see pirates have a third baseman named Hayes which is younger they have a outfielder by the name of Bryan Reynolds wouldn’t be look good as the everyday Leftfielder and wear that number ten jersey and they resign jd martinez as the DH and bring up Feduccia as the backup catcher. Deluca if they think he can do better then Heyward then he should be another outfielder if he can’t then you sign Heyward you also have Kiki and Rojas as utility guys. With the guys intention there all younger and good ball players why spend so much fit Ohtani when we need three every day position players there’s got to be a trade out there or free agent and yes Montgomery or Snell added to the starting rotation that’s my take get guys that strikeout less out the ball in play