I really do. I also have an irrational fear of them.
The Dodgers begin their postseason quest on Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are fresh off of the Wild Card sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers in what could likely be Craig Counsell’s last game for the Brewers. It is widely speculated that he will leave the Brewers for the Mets, as his contract is now up. There are two reasons for this: (1) Former President of Baseball Operations for the Brewers, David Stearns, is now in that same capacity with the Mets, and (2) The Mets will throw Craig a boatload of money. But I digress!
The Dodgers were 8-5 against the D-Backs this season. Arizona finished the season 84-78, 16 games behind the Dodgers and with a run differential of -15! The Dodgers finished at 100-62 with a run differential of +207. The only team in baseball with a better run differential is Atlanta with a +231. The Snakes Pythagorean W-L record should be 80-82, meaning they were sometimes very lucky.. and opportunistic! Interestingly, the Dodgers’ Pythagorean W-L record is the same as their season record. Not as much luck was involved… maybe they are saving it for the Postseason. Let’s hope so!
Of course, most blogs and websites will run a side-by-side comparison of the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. They will compare Christian Walker to Freddie Freeman, Lourdes Gurriel to David Peralta and Chris Taylor, Will Smith to Gabriel Moreno (except for the fact that Moreno could be out with a head injury), but that is not how it works. The first basemen do not just play each other. I have always thought those kinds of comparisons were silly. I mean, if you are going to compare Ketel Marte at 2B, who do you compare him with? Mookie, Rosario, Kike, Kolten?
What we do know is that the D-Backs do not have four hitters with over 100 RBIs as the Dodgers do, but they do have some home run hitters: Walker (33), Carroll (25), Marte (25), and Gurriel (24). They also have a Corbin Carroll, who has stolen 54 bases and can wreak havoc if he gets on. He has 25 HR, 30 doubles, and 10 triples to go with those 54 stolen bases. If the Dodgers have one mission, it is to keep Carroll off base.
The Diamondbacks are 17th in OPS, while the Dodgers are #2. The Diamondbacks are 14th in OB% while the Dodgers are 2nd, but the Diamondbacks are 2nd in Stolen Bases with 166, while the Dodgers are 19th with 105. Finally, the Dodgers scored 906 runs (2nd to the Braves), while the D-Backs scored 746 runs. Here are the most important stats:
Of course, the Stats don’t suit up and play the game. The Dodgers are #3 in baseball in Defensive Runs Saved (60), while the Diamondbacks are #4 (45)… but the Brewers were #2 (69), so there is that! The Braves are #15 (17), and the Phillies are #25 with a negative number (-29). Ouch!
The Brewers had the #1 pitching staff during the regular season with a 3.71 ERA. The Dodgers were #1 last year with a 2.80 ERA, and I would say that the new rules certainly favored the offense as the Best ERA went up almost a run a game! The Dodgers were 13th with a 4.06 ERA, while the Diamondbacks were #20 with a 4.48 ERA.
The biggest difference is in the bullpens. Milwaukee was rated #2 in Bullpen ERA at 3.40, while the Dodgers were #3 at 3.42 Bullpen ERA. The Diamondbacks are #18 in Bullpen ERa at 4.22! So, if you are thinking that the Diamondbacks Starter ERA must be better, you would be wrong! The Dodgers are #20 in Starter ERA at 4.57, while the D-Backs are #21 at 4.67. BTW, the Brewers were #6 in Starter ERA at 3.94. The best team in baseball was the San Diego Clowns, with a Starter ERA of 3.69! Starters are overrated!
Soft-tossing Lefty Clayton Kershaw will be on the mound on Saturday for Game 1 and will likely be followed by Emmett Sheehan, which will be quite a contrast for the hitters. Game 2 is on Monday, and it will be Bobby Miller’s “baptism by fire” in the playoffs. Merrill Kelley (RHP) will likely start Game 1. The Dodgers have a .315 BA against Kelly (over his career) with a .381 OB% and a .891 OPS. He is 0-11 against them with a 5.49 ERA. It’s even worse in Dodger Stadium as the Dodgers’ OPS against him there is .945!
Zac Gallen will likely start on Monday in LA, and he has fared better, holding the Dodgers to a .205 BA and .277 OB%. His ERA is 3.48 against them, and he is 1-4 in his career against them. All the losses at Dodger Stadium.
If Gabriel Moreno misses the series, that will be a big blow, as he has been a real asset both behind the plate and at bat. The good news for the D-Backs is that Moreno is not in concussion protocol. After the game, Torey Lovullo said,” “He’s still getting diagnosed right now. We’re hopeful that he can avoid the concussion protocol. He has not entered the concussion protocol. We’re still finding out what his status is right now.” I am assuming he will play.
The Dodgers will likely release their roster on Friday, and the main questions are: Will Kolten Wong make the team, and what about Kyle Hurt? Both are viable choices. The D-Backs have the two high RH Pitchers due up in the first two games, and Wong has a .275 BA against RHP in Dodger Stadium with a .375 OB for his career! We shall see!
FROM MLBTR.com:
“According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Daniel Hudson will pitch during an intrasquad game on Thursday. The Dodgers righty only made three appearances during the regular season and has not played in a big league game since July 5, but he hasn’t ruled out an October return. He won’t be available for the NLDS, but he could pitch later in the postseason should the Dodgers advance. Over the past three years, Hudson has been an excellent reliever when healthy, pitching to a 2.85 ERA and 2.60 SIERA in 79 innings of work. Unfortunately, he has dealt with a litany of injuries since last summer, including a torn ACL, ankle tendinitis, and, most recently, an MCL sprain in his right knee.”
Arizona Fall League
From MLB.com:
Dodgers: Ben Casparius, RHP
Casparius trusts his plus 82-85 mph slider more than his low-90s fastball, and he may be better off moving from the rotation to the bullpen in the long run. A 2021 fifth-round pick from Connecticut, he compiled a 5.27 ERA with 120 strikeouts in 107 2/3 innings between High-A and Double-A.
Last night, catcher and second baseman Yenier Fernandez played shortstop the entire game and also hit a HR. Do the Dodgers believe he can really he can play there, or is he just becoming a “super utilityman?” Kendall Williams started and went 5 innings, allowing 5 hits and 1 ER. He walked one and struck out three.
Bring em on! Snakes are easy to kill………as long as you see them first.
You do a great job at this, Mark. Keep it up. Agree about those roster spots being up in the air.
This looks vaguely familiar to 22. A team and a pitcher we have absolutely dominated. We need the August Mookie!
Bill Plaschke just wrote the best article of his career… and it wasn’t negative!
Holy Crap, Batman! This is incredible!
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-10-05/plaschke-dodgers-winning-the-world-series
Here’s a snippet:
They are fighting their tattered rotation, their untested bullpen, their shallow lineup.
Clayton Kershaw is too old. Bobby Miller is too young. Evan Phillips is too green. Mookie Betts is too soft. Will Smith is too tired. James Outman is too young.
They are fighting their lousy October history, the flameouts, the implosions, the fact that they haven’t won a full-season title in 35 years.
The San Diego Padres punked them, the Atlanta Braves rolled them, the Washington Nationals stunned them, the baseball world laughed at them.
Entering the 2023 postseason, the Dodgers are fighting against the same sorts of perceptions that have saddled them since they began the 1988 postseason as heavy underdogs.
Remember how that ended? Vin Scully once said it, and these Dodgers are about to relive it.
In a year that has been so improbable, the impossible is about to happen again.
The Dodgers will win the 2023 World Series.
You read it here first, probably because you will likely not read it anywhere else, so maybe you should read it again.
The Dodgers will win the 2023 World Series.
Print it out. Put it in plastic. Bring it to the parade.
The Dodgers are just relentless enough, just resilient enough, and just resourceful enough to survive a postseason that will bend to their undying will.
It gets better after that…
Well, I’m ready to celebrate! A lot of factors seem to say no. Resiliency may prevail!
Lets have a repeat of the 2017 NLDS with those guys.
Hopefully AZ doesn’t limit tickets sales to certain zip codes, like SD did.
Hope the temp is okay in the pool in Arizona.
Love it
The boys in blue know how to warm it up!
So as I expected, the D’Backs made light work of Milwaukee.
This is the match up that I really didn’t want, but at this stage it’s definitely better than facing either of the alternatives, namely the Braves or Phillies.
Let’s hope that the Brainstrust is working hard on stopping the Running Game.
We looked totally at a loss on how do hold runners early in the season, but all of those Pitchers are no longer a factor, with the exception of Clayton, who to my eye certainly looks the best at that skill.
Please let’s not underestimate them as we did earlier in the season and as we did with the Padres last year.
Team will be ready. I’m expecting a series win.
AZ got pretty lucky in MKE, there were a LOT of hard hit balls that went right at them. Also MKE made some bad mistakes on the bases. That wont happen vs the Dodgers.
Dbacks got me nervous and it’s only Thursday, so does Plaschcke’s prediction. Great article though. Got to love the confidence
Marlins game maybe 50% of strike calls were wrong it seemed (well maybe not that high, but bad)
* David, here’s my book on Doug Eddings who did the Marlins – Phillies game:
“Doug Eddings – worst list. Just an adventure game to game. brutal North and south missing strikes. Will expand the 5 river all day. Had a game where he called 25 of 70 pitches strikes that were balls (64%) primarily in 5 river, some 1 and some south. Brutal. The next game the pitching coach was ejected delivering the line up card. How do you miss 26 pitches?”
Last night, the Umpires Scorecard has him missing 11 pitches. 8 of those were actual balls, called strikes, which fits my book. However, I’m trusting the Scorecard less and less.
* So here is my roster vs D-Backs:
CK, Miller, Pepiot, Sheehan, Yarbrough, Phillips, Graterol, Kelly, Brasier, Shelby Miller and reluctantly Lynn, Vesia and Fergie. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the LHP replaced by Stone and I think Grove is out.
Smith, Barnes, Freeman, CT3, Rosario, Kike, Rojas, Muncy, Mookie, Heyward, Outman, JDM and Peralta.
No need for Wong,
I love the CK / Sheehan combo.
There is no way the D-Backs win this series.
I’m real glad they don’t re-seed after the Wildcard Series.
I think it is possible that Wong takes Rosario’s place.
I agree. He’s been getting a long look and his superior defensive skills and LH bat may ultimately win out.
And I’d bet Grove makes the roster
Also I like Rosario better than Wong
I still like Wong over Peralta.
Hoping for Wong.
Interested to hear why you think Stone is more likely than Grove. It seems to me that Grove has pitched substantially better than Stone, especially lately, and only referring to what he’s done in a Dodger uni, not OKC.
Neither Stone nor Grove would be used as a starter so we’re talking about their success with the Dodgers as relief pitchers. I’m a big Stone fan but for this year’s post season I’m choosing Grove. Of course, I don’t get a choice and I need to speak to AF about that.
I think Grove has made the roster.
I will post my final guess later, but Wong and Grove are both on it… at least against the D-Bags.
Wussy! I’ve had dozens and dozens of dozens of creepy crawlers in my time. Snakes lizards scorpions tarantulas, you name it.
But yes, there were some people who would not even step foot in my house. I call that a winner!
The Dodgers must not just dodge the snakes, but kill them. No mercy..
While I don’t meant to distract our psychic energy, Michael Elizondo at a TrueBlueLA has offered a requiem of sorts for the hated Padres. How could a team with so much talent–a team with a run differential of +104, exceeded in the NL by only by the Braves and Dodgers–wind up so mediocre? They needed a 3-win sweep at the end of the season to finish at 82-80.
Here’s how:
“A deep dive into how this team folded in on itself is pretty ugly to see.
9-23 (.281) in one-run games
2-12 (.143) in extra-inning games (both wins came in the final five games)
12 walk-off losses (in contrast, the Dodgers had 6)
2 walk-off wins (in contrast, the Dodgers have 7)
11 times shutout (in contrast, the Dodgers were shut out 4 times)
The statistics continue in this way. While the Giants sacked Gabe Kapler (for all the good that will do), even mediocre play from the Padres in these situations likely would have meant that the Padres would have snuck into the playoffs like a burglar in the night.”
Elizondo borrowed an insult from Teddy Roosevelt to describe the Pads as a team “with the backbone of a chocolate eclair.”
All of this is neither here nor there, but I am reminded again that, first, it’s good to be a Dodgers fan, and second, the D’Backs do not have backbone of pastry.
The Snakes’ run differential was -15, which is 119 runs worse that the Padres’. But they finished 84-78, drawing the Wild Card. Then they beat the Brewers, which had at +81 differential.
These Snakes are kind of scary.
STB, here’s my take on Grove, Stone and the 2 lefties in relief.
As we wait on the roster decisions. I’m really looking at the playoff pitchers based on who can get LHB out.
I suggested both Vesia and Fergie on the roster. Sorta by default but I’m not convinced or confident in either.
Both of our one inning LHRP are ineffective vs LHB:
Vesia has playoff experience but he’s got the 11th best success vs LHB on the staff, with reverse splits. He earns his keep by being very good the last 2 weeks.
Fergie has been lousy the last 2 weeks, .375 BA / 1.090. He too is ineffective vs LHB. #9 on the staff vs LHB at .266.
Grove has 3 appearances for 5 innings in the last 28 days and his line is .063/.118
Good numbers in an extremely limited sample. But LHB hit .344 off him for the season.
Stone also has 3 appearances and 13 innings in the last 28 days; one as a starter. His line is .338/.870. RHB = .351, LHB = .322. Not inspiring numbers. If it’s between he and Grove, Grove is my pick.
All things considered, Grove might be the better choice over Fergie despite his inexperience. Maybe we won’t get that deep.
Oddly, our best guys vs LHB are:
Pepiot, Kershaw, Shelby Miller, Kelly Graterol, Brasier, Phillips; all better than any of our LHRP. We might see some odd match ups against the book.
We should see shortly.
Another encouraging nugget from TrueBlueLA:
“In the first 81 games of the season, the Dodgers allowed 101 steals, worst in the majors, at an 88.6-percent clip. Even removing Syndergaard’s 20 steals allowed, Dodgers pitchers would have been third-worst in giving up steals in the first half of the season.
But in the last 81 games, Dodgers pitchers have allowed only 41 stolen bases, second-fewest in the majors, at a 71.9-percent clip.
Most of the worst Dodgers pitchers at holding runners are gone, including Phil Bickford (11 steals in only 42 innings with LA). Julio Urías (11 steals, an anomaly for him). Shelby Miller allowed eight steals in nine attempts in only 42 innings, but has allowed only one steal in 11 appearances since returning from the injured list. It helps that he has only allowed eight of 43 batters to reach base during that time.”
Certainly remember how bad the Dodgers were at holding runners early in the season. The improvement is really impressiv.e
The sites you are quoting are sites that want to monetize as many clicks as possible. TRANSLATION: It’s all about the money!
When you produce a quote from one of those sites, I say: “You must be a dumbass.”
Don’t take it too badly! Everyone is a dumbass at times.