There are a couple of choices: Star or Journeyman. It’s hard to be a star, and it is just about as hard to be a journeyman. A year ago, I thought that James Outman was destined to be a 4th or 5th outfielder, and while some fans took exception, there really wasn’t anything that suggested he would be any more than a platoon player. Of course, all fans have their favorites, and rationality is not part of the rooting equation.
It’s like when Will Smith came into the Dodgers’ Farm System. He was a defense-first catcher who did not have much of a hit tool, but there were fans who predicted greatness for him. Were they super-savvy? No, they were super lucky. It was a WAG (Wild Ass Guess). Will Smith had his swing re-made and is now a hit-first catcher whose defense has slipped a little. He’s a candidate to move to another position to unleash his big bat. If he were to move to 2B, he would be an All-Star (25 HR/100 RBI/.900 OPS).
James Outman is an outstanding athlete, and he still has a strange swing, but I guess it’s better than the caveman he used to be. It is a short, powerful stroke… that still needs (and will likely get) refinement. He has had a promising rookie year – much better than I expected, and I am especially impressed with his defense. We have seen him evolve all this season into a much better centerfielder. He’s still far from being Gold Glove-caliber, but I would not bet against him. The question is, can he become a star, or will he be a journeyman?
Again, there is no problem with being a journeyman. Joc Pederson is one. David Peralta is one. Jason Heyward is one… You need those guys. They are important! Often, they are platoon players, but they have some issues in certain aspects of the game that prevent them from becoming stars. What would prevent JO from stardom? One word: “Strikeouts!”
Strikeouts are the bad news. It could also be good news if he could eliminate some of them… and I think he is capable. After all, he has a .800 OPS in his rookie year, but his strikeout rate is almost 32%. He needs to learn better strike zone and pitch recognition, and I think that will come. It can come over the winter – not with physical practice but with mental training. James Outman will hit 30-40 home runs in a season… that’s a given (in my mind), but if he can master the strike zone (and shorten up with two strikes, like Cody did), he will hit 30 HR and 40 doubles.
If James can cut his strikeouts to mid-20%, he will also walk more. This means knocking about 50 strikeouts off his total. It can be done. If he can do that, he will put up this kind of line: 30 HR/30 Doubles/20 SBs/80 BB, and a .275 BA with close to a .900 OPS. I believe that is fully attainable for James Outman… but it will take a lot of work to become a star. I think he can do it, but he will have to show us! Progress is not linear… ask Miguel Vargas! I look forward to more growth with James.
Dodger News & Notes
- Saturday, September 30th, the OKC Dodgers play the Norfolk Tides in a “Winner-Take-All” Championship Game. Now that IS a crapshoot! This game, at 10 PM EDT/7 PM PDT, could put the icing on the cake that the Dodgers have the best winning percentage of any team in baseball – Majors and Minors combined. The Dodgers’ minor league teams have been to six playoffs and already won one. This will be two.
- On Monday, October 2nd, the AFL Kicks off. The Glendale Desert Dogs (which is the team the AFL Dodgers are on) kick it off at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick – Scottsdale, AZ. Other AFL Dates:
- November 4th – Home Run Derby
- November 5th – Fall Stars Game
- November 10th – SemiFinals Game
- November 11 – Championship Game
Legends of the Fall
I always post this clip at the start of every AFL Season – It’s from Legends of the Fall – one of my Top 3 Favorite Movies, along with the Shawshank Redemption and The Last of the Mohicans (Daniel Day Lewis).
If Outman puts in the work, and I absolutely think he will, he can be a very good major league player. He has the tools, now he needs the desire. I see that kind of desire in Bobby Miller. That kid wants to be a superstar. He takes failure personally. Last night was a nothing game, and it showed. Yarbrough took one for the team. Ferguson is pitching himself right off of the playoff roster. Two bad outings in a row, against the Rockies? Cmon, if they beat you like a drum, what happens when you meet up with the Braves?
Yes Ferguson can be pissed off about his treatment on the IL, etc. But the way to make your point is to perform. So I think he has performed himself off the post season roster and perhaps off the team as well for next season
Would not bother me one bit.
Call it luck or saavy, but I’ve always liked Outman. He has certainly got 30 homerun power and I think he gets there. Yes, he needs to cut down on strikeouts, but everything I read says he works hard. Hey, he had an impressive start, fell off, made changes and bounced back.
Impressive the Dodgers now have four hitters with over a hundred runs batted in, first time in Dodger history with Betts, Freeman, Muncy and now Martinez reaching the century mark. JD’s march to one hundred came in just 110 games after two trips to the injury list.
Ferguson can’t be a serious contender for a spot on the post season roster. I defended him a couple of days ago and thought he would make it over Vesia.
Not now, he has been utter dog chit his last two outings and doesn’t deserve to be on the playoff roster. He can be pissed and entitled all he wants but MLB is a results based business and when you don’t post good results you’re gone.
Yarbrough sure didn’t inspire any confidence in that could be counted on in a tight playoff game. Maybe if mop up duty if needed. Roberts is gonna have to pull off some manager of the year kinda stuff managing a pen where lefty arms are a glaring weakness. Even so all in all I like our chances
Did you see my explanation of the WCGB from the September 27th thread? If so I hope it helped.
James Outman surprised me this year. After his great start, then he slumped badly, I thought this was bye bye for him….but he surprised me by making adjustments and lifting himself above mediocrity. He has almost made me forget Cody Bellinger but considering their salaries, we are getting quite a deal with Outman.
Ferguson be gone!
Outman gets to an 0-2 or 1-2 count faster than anyone on the team. Even Taylor. And I think we all know what comes after 0-2.
I suspect he will improve.
He gets to 0-2 and then works it for a 8 or 9 pitch at bat. I don’t know the stats, but I bet he has one of the higher pitch counts on the team. I’m not saying he doesn’t K a lot, just saying that I’ve seen him get behind in the count a lot and always seem to battle.
Do you all think that Freeman will bleed some MVP votes from Mookie ensuring that Acuna will win the award?
I think 40-70 locked the award up for Acuna
I think you’re right and it bugs me.
I also think more MVP voters see Braves games than Dodgers games. Some might not even aware he played THREE positions and played them at a very high level. To me, that is the very definition of valuable.
Like in most things Mookie is right. MVP is irrelevant to the goal. Win the World Series. GO DODGERS!
There is no way anyone should be mad about Acuna getting MVP…. monster season.
.339 41Hr 105 RBI 70 steals!!! I love Mookie too, but man 70 steals is going to push him way over the top.
Ya, Mookie is going to get “Trouted” as I used to say. Monster year but somebody had a better one. This will be the third time Mookie finished second. Trout has finished second 4 times.
100%. Only a homer at this point thinks Mookie deserves it over Acuna. When September started it was an even race but Acuna has outperformed Mookie this month by about every metric. How long has Mookie been stuck on 39 HR? Acuna has also been the most consistent player out of the two and has been pretty spectacular all year. Mookie had a MONSTER August but also had some mediocre months sprinkled in. Still getting second this year in MVP voting isn’t anything to sniff at there are 4 players who any other year would most likely be a lock.
An absolutely damning article today in the Athletic about Arte Moreno’s ownership of the Angels. He pulled no punches and had a lot of quotes from current and former players and employees. Arte will drop big money on star players while simultaneously being the biggest cheapskate in every other aspect of the organization. Sam Blum basically called him out for having no interest in winning. He wants to put some shiny stars on the roster to sell tickets and has no interest in investing in the rest of the organization.
I know several Angels fans who have used injuries as the excuse believing there is some sort of curse. The curse is the owner. The Dodgers have had even more injuries yet have been able to call on the massive depth of young arms and role players to not only fill those gaps but do so effectively. I still can’t believe we might end the season with 100 wins. I wouldn’t have believed that after spring training, even if you told me the team would stay healthy.
Playoffs are a crapshoot and I have tempered my expectations. But good organizations find a way to win despite adversity. Arte Moreno, in 6 years, couldn’t turn Ohtani and Trout into a single winning season. And now they won’t have Ohtani and the roster has two boat anchor contracts, a rock bottom minor league system and one of the worst stadiums in baseball.
It’s good to be a Dodger fan.
https://theathletic.com/4911000/2023/09/29/angels-squander-mike-trout-shohei-ohtani/?source=user_shared_article
Just finished reading the article. Don’t think Moreno will be inviting Sam Blum to dinner anytime soon.
Ohtani must be thrilled to be getting out of there and I can’t believe that Trout would willingly stay there, although I don’t see any way Moreno pays someone to take him so he may just be stuck there.
Baseball would have been much better off if Moreno had followed through with his plan to sell the team. Maybe he still will at some point in the near future now that he knows Ohtani won’t return and Trout is only healthy enough to play part seasons.
The Disney days were even worse. Those hokey Disney character ‘mascots’ and cheerleaders between innings was the end of my Anaheim games. It was a quick trip with cheap seats to see Red Sox and Yankees. Often more away fans than Angel fans.
Angel Stadium is the heart of the Concrete Jungle. Kinda sad to see so many great baseball fans around here hanging their head down. They deserve better.
I had season seats from around 98 to 2001 (yes, I gave them up the year they won it all.) Front row club. Full playoff rights. Anaheim is an hour closer than LA for me. And I. The 90s season seats were about 1/4 the price compared to the Dodgers. I typically got half my money back selling Yankee, Boston and Seattle tickets (especially in 2001 when Ichiro was a rookie).
Yes, Disney ran the stadium like an extension of a theme park. It was annoying. But they did a good job running the franchise. They left the Angels as world champs with a stacked minor league system. I believe they were ranked #1 or 2 when Arte bought the team.
Disney Corp cumulative w/ l record was 333-381 (.466)
With the ‘02 ring in the bag they bailed a year later. Smart move.
Bad luck with young pitchers has plagued them ever since.
Kind of like when FOX owned the Dodgers.
Yarbrough and Ferguson may be two pitchers that can’t pitch at Coors field. I would see if they can bounce back in SF this weekend before putting them to the curb. Coors field is not friendly for some pitchers. If Ferguson is on the IL, he probably wont be on the roster in October.
* Two valuable things we learned this week; Yarbrough isn’t an opener and Fergie isn’t an opener. In fact, Fergie might be “Gone Johnson” entirely. That paves the way for Stone or Grove (I don’t know much about Hurt, other than his AA and AAA numbers. We do know about Stone, whose numbers don’t pop and he’s an unsuccessful opener. But he’s been better the last month. Grove hasn’t been successful in relief (.427/1.156 in 8 games out of the pen) His 2 starting appearance in the last month have been good.
But neither Stone nor Grove are a reliable upgrade so it’s entirely possible Ferguson makes the roster by default. As I mentioned yesterday, it you don’t want to be on the bubble Caleb; pitch better.
* Mark, I will respectfully disagree with your statement “but there were fans who predicted greatness for him (Smith). Were they super-savvy? No, they were super lucky”. Years ago, maybe after his 2019 season, I remember you predicting Smith would be a .220 hitter and a quality receiver. Not to pat myself on the back, but I predicted he would hit much better than that. Why? I liked his swing. I don’t know if was after a ‘revamp” or not, but he didn’t look like a .220 guy to me. I was not “Super Lucky”.
* What do you know, Frookie Freebetts took an of’er last night.
You are right – that is what I said… and believed… in 2018.. after he was drafted.
However, almost every scout I know subscribed to this (from BA): “He faces questions about his overall hitting and contact ability.”
Anybody who saw anything more has a lot more vision than me… or is lucky! 😉
I just call ’em as I see ’em.
I thought Keibert Ruiz was a better Catcher then and I still think he will be. However, the Dodgers were successful with Smith’s swing makeover.
I also saw James Outman’s swing, before the makeover, and if anyone had predicted stardom for him at that juncture, they would have been institutionalized!
Yeah Zeke I managed to put two and two together and figure out the WCE line after giving it a little thought. Threw me for a loop being first time I seen it. Appreciate the looking out though bud and sure did tickle me pink see the big E next to the padres
Not quite yet to be ” tickle{d} pink [to] see the big E next to the padres, but real soon. Like 6:50 PST.
It’s gonna take a very talented team all playing together, hot with right intangibles going when it matters most to win a ring. Especially now that got to get thru so many teams to get there and how hard it is compared to the old days. It makes me cringe every time I hear someone call it a crapshoot like it’s possible to luck into a championship and if so what would a championship even mean or why would it be so desirable. I just don’t get it and hoping I never do because it would take the purpose of it all away for me at least
Open season on Brave’s fans now with their starters banged up and even Striders getting whacked. He’s in need of rest.
They’re running out no-namers (like us) and w/o that bombing lineup their going inning by inning to get through.
At least we started auditions for the farm guys earlier than they had to. And our bullpen is deeper than Braves.
Chop- chop the Braves getting whittled down a couple pegs.
Pepiot & Sheehan looking better everytime I watch Brave’s kids. Dodger talent just keeps firing away.
David Vassegh
@THEREAL_DV
Dave Roberts said #Dodgers are planning on opening next Wednesday’s simulated game at Dodger Stadium to season ticket holders.
It looks like the Dodgers are taking the time between their first game playoff game more seriously than last year’s debacle. Hoping for better results.
Gabe Kapler Fired!
Just read that,
aww, shucks that SF is suffering.
Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. He might come back to the Dodgers and work in the front office again.
Ferguson has been pitching really bad for some time now. You can look way back for the last clean inning.
Well “the genius” didn’t give Kapler much to work with!
10:10ET
Betts2B R 39 106 14 .308 .995
Freeman, F1B L 28 101 23 .331 .975
Smith, W.D.C R 18 74 3 .258 .787
Martinez, JDHR 32 100 1 .274 .901
HeywardRF L 15 40 2 .270 .821
PeraltaLF L 7 55 4 .256 .670
Hernández,3BR 10 58 4 .239 .646
OutmanCF L 23 69 15 .252 .800
Rojas, MSS R 5 31 8 .238 .613
Lynn SP
Lineups subject to change
The Brewers pitching has his got my worry meter on high alert. Good thing got to spend a lot in WC round
6:39:58 PST the Padres are eliminated. Now you can get as pink as you desire.
They have a very talented Marlins team to contend with the way things are looking.
You guys may be right about Peralta. Yikes he’s struggling!
Not really a Stats guy
But has a Sunday never been needed at a Ryder Cup before?
Never watch golf, so I would not know. USC-Colorado game on at 10:00 this morning.
Freddie one double away from 60. That would be historic. Mookie in a little funk right now. Nice shot to center from Smitty. Nice to see him hit a ball that hard. Padres eliminated, Kapler fired, Cubs sinking like a stone, and it looks like the Marlins are going to sneak into the playoffs and the Brewers are going to have to deal with them. Rockies signed Blackmon to a one-year extension. The home plate umpire tonight was atrocious. That strike three call on Mookie was at least 6 inches outside. MLB really needs to do something about that.
Ferguson was drafted as a starter if I remember right. But they moved him to the pen. If he could get in the strike zone more consistently, maybe I would trust him more. But he sure throws a ton of first pitch balls. He also hits a lot of guys. He has 8 so far this season and his WHIP is now 1.466.