Potter Stewart was an American lawyer and judge who served as an associate justice of the United States Supreme Court from 1958 to 1981. During his tenure, he made significant contributions to criminal justice reform, civil rights, court access, and Fourth Amendment jurisprudence. In 1964, Justice Stewart was asked to describe his test for obscenity, and he responded: “I know it when I see it.“
I write this in response to a comment that Duke (Not Snider) wrote yesterday:
“My advice: Take the independent prospect ratings with a grain of salt. They read each other’s ratings and mostly concur with each other. Rarely see an outlier. I’d be much more interested in a glimpse of the Dodgers internal ratings–but they may be screwy too. (Will somebody please explain why Jahmai Jones didn’t get a chance?)
Been over this topic before. Outman NEVER rated highly in prospect ratings, while Vargas and Busch always have. I never saw a ratings list that put Outman, a good outfielder, ahead of Busch, a guy still in search of a true position. (Cartaya always rates highly too, but he’s too young to be considered a peer of those three.) Because they needed an outfielder, the Dodgers brass promoted Outman to the majors before the other two, and his debut was spectacular–and too short.
Vargas, we were assured, was the closest thing to a “can’t-miss” but so far, so bad. The ump probably called a couple of close misses as strikes on that last at bat, but with two runners on and the game on the line, the batter has to swing at the close ones. With a 13-year-old still playing, I probably reminded him and his teammates with two outs to “protect the plate” about 300 times these last few years. Get a piece of it, Miguel. Foul it off. The umps won’t help you when the game is on the line.
Are the Dodger prospects over-hyped? I suspect that’s true, because of the Dodgers’ reputation. The Dodgers, after all, have a winning system, and they have produced more ROYs than any other franchise. So a guy like Vargas may be perceived as the next Seager or Belli or Will Smith. There was more hype surrounding Lux and it took him time to adjust. Vargas will need more time and perhaps a reset in OKC. We can only hope that Outman has started a new hot streak. But overall, I’d say Outman’s rookie season has met or exceeded expectations.
AF can take advantage of this hype in the trade market. When he snagged Sherzer and Trea, the typical story was how the Dodgers gave up “their top two prospects.” My guess, however, is the Dodger brass already valued Cartaya more than Keibert, and perhaps some younger pitchers more than Gray. The Nats needed MLB-ready talent–and both Keibert and Gray were blocked on the Dodgers’ roster.
I like blockbusters. They’re fun. The Scherzer-Trea deal was fun. It’s highly unlikely, but at least one baseball scribe thinks the Sox could put Luis Robert on the market. Big-time talent. What would we offer for Robert and Giolito?
I’d start with Cartaya, because the Sox will need catching and the Dodgers already have Smith and Rushing is rushing. Add Busch, because he has no clear fit with the Dodgers–and his debut was underwhelming. Add DeLuca or Pages or Ramos to replace Robert. Maybe Outman, because Robert strikes out too much too. Add a near-ML arm like Knack or Nastrini, plus a lottery ticket type.
OK, this might be an overpay, but the point is that the Dodgers have the player capital to do something bold.
Hey, the Dodgers could also deal Vargas if they prefer a gracefully aging Mookie at 2B.
Of course this is pure speculation, based on a scribe’s speculation.
But did any of us see AF landing both Scherzer and Trea in a single deal? And Trea had another year on his contract, which helped the Dodgers to a 111-win season and set up the transition to the Lux Era, for which we’ll have to wait ’til next year.
Looking for a strong performance from Bobby Miller today. The Dodgers need to stop losing to weak teams.
I still think the Dodgers will win the division, in part because AF & Associates will learn from their mistakes of ’22 and make a bold trade or two before Aug. 1.”
— Duke (Not Snider)
There is a lot to unpack here, but I think that this raises some very worthy questions. The answer to some of them is the answer that Justice Potter Stewart gave: “I know it when I see it.” So, here we go:
“Take the independent prospect ratings with a grain of salt. They read each other’s ratings and mostly concur with each other. Rarely see an outlier. I’d be much more interested in a glimpse of the Dodgers internal ratings–but they may be screwy too.“
You have to take everything involving prospect development with a grain of salt. I’d like to see you walk into a room of them who make their living doing this and say that. They would bitch slap you to hell. They often do not agree with each other, but they all have strong opinions. Why? Because they watch the players, they are talking about players they have watched… a lot! I will ask Duke the same question I asked Eric: “How many A- A+, AA, and AAA Dodger games have you watched over the past five years?” I am going with the answer NONE! Until this year, you had to subscribe to MiLB.com, which was an extra charge. This year with MLB.com is also delivering the Minor League Games at no charge. So, my question is: “How can you have opinions on players you have never watched develop?
Every team has independent ratings, and they have many, if not dozens, of employees who watch the players play and watch the film of them playing. I read all the top ratings services: Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, and others every year. I have every Baseball America Prospect Handbook ever published that I refer back to, yet I only have a fraction of the knowledge that the organizational employees have because they also get access to all of these employees of MLB teams who are involved in the process.
Player development and predicting player development are not exact sciences… in fact, they are very inexact because only a small percentage of minor-league players will make the Show… perhaps 20-30% and most will not be stars. There are no training schools for scouting and player evaluation. It’s a talent that you develop over time. Generally, it involves “years” to develop this talent as you have to learn by your successes as well as your mistakes… and you will make a lot of them. It also involves whether you have “sight” or “vision.” Can you see what a player can become or just what he is? Do you really watch them develop? Did you read the book (watch the games), or did you just watch the movie (read a summary)?
“Will somebody please explain why Jahmai Jones didn’t get a chance?”
The simple answer is that the Dodgers’ player development people do not value a player who can only play 2B and has little power. When Jahmai was drafted, he was extremely fast, but as he matured, he became “thicker” and slower. His defense is below average, and he has poor plate discipline. Additionally, he will be 26 next month. The Angels, Orioles, and Dodgers have all given up on him. He started out as CF’er, but as his speed declined, he was moved to 2B, where he never really mastered the pivot. The Dodgers elected to replace him with a player who can play all over and maybe equal as a hitter. Jahmai Jones is a good guy who is an AAAA player (that’s my opinion). I do wish him well with Milwaukee, as he is a genuinely good guy.
Been over this topic before. Outman NEVER rated highly in prospect ratings, while Vargas and Busch always have. I never saw a ratings list that put Outman, a good outfielder, ahead of Busch, a guy still in search of a true position. (Cartaya always rates highly too, but he’s too young to be considered a peer of those three.) Because they needed an outfielder, the Dodgers brass promoted Outman to the majors before the other two, and his debut was spectacular–and too short.
Define “Never ranked highly.” In Basedball Americas’ 2023 Prospect Handbook, he was ranked as the Dodgers’ #10 Prospect. He was ranked ahead of Jacob Amaya, Nick Frasso, Josue De Paula, Emmet Sheehan, Eddys Leonard, Ronan Kopp, River Ryan, Jonny DeLuca, Michael Grove, Maddux Bruns, Devin Mann, Landon Knack, Jose Ramos, and several other excellent prospects.
In 2022, he was ranked #15, and in 2021 he was at #40. How do you rank players? Well, I think my question was answered: “Did you watch him in minor-league games? I say no! You evaluate a player by what you see, and Michael Busch just has more “tools.” Even Ray Charles can see it. Now, I am guessing that you and Eric “discovered” James Outman when he was called up in 2022 and went 7 for 13 with a hundred home runs. Baseball scouts laugh at “small samples” and rightfully so. They mean very little. In case you don’t know, “luck” is really a thing in baseball.
Again, in three years, Outman went from #40 to #15 to #10. That’s a great rating, and “Outman is becoming a “good outfielder” in that he frequently misplays balls in CF, but that is just a lack of experience. I think he will ultimately be an above-average Centerfielder. Busch is still in search of a true position because the Dodgers are not sure where they need him, not for lack of athletic skill. Let us not forget that Outman’s swing was just awful in the beginning. He says he “swung like a caveman.”
“Vargas, we were assured, was the closest thing to a “can’t-miss” but so far, so bad. The ump probably called a couple of close misses as strikes on that last at bat, but with two runners on and the game on the line, the batter has to swing at the close ones. With a 13-year-old still playing, I probably reminded him and his teammates with two outs to “protect the plate” about 300 times these last few years. Get a piece of it, Miguel. Foul it off. The umps won’t help you when the game is on the line.”
Well, there is probably no such thing as “can’t miss.” Ranking prospects is an inexact science, at best. One game does not define Vargas, and he has certainly not lived up to his press clippings. Yes, he has had some injuries that have impeded his progress, but it is what it is. However, the reason I know you never watched him or Outman in the Minor Leagues is that you would not write that if you did. Even Ray Charles could see Vargas’ skills. How do you describe it? “I know it when I see it!” I am still high on Vargas and so are the Dodgers – this is a setback, but so far, the Dodgers are sitting him and not sending him back. I have to believe that they know something about him that we don’t. Also, progress is not linear.
Are the Dodger prospects over-hyped? I suspect that’s true, because of the Dodgers’ reputation. The Dodgers, after all, have a winning system, and they have produced more ROYs than any other franchise. So a guy like Vargas may be perceived as the next Seager or Belli or Will Smith. There was more hype surrounding Lux and it took him time to adjust. Vargas will need more time and perhaps a reset in OKC. We can only hope that Outman has started a new hot streak. But overall, I’d say Outman’s rookie season has met or exceeded expectations.
First of all, how are the Dodgers players over-hyped? BA, BP, The Athletic, Fangraphs, and all the others are independent and not affiliated with any team. Do you read about the other teams’ prospects? There is nothing inherently different about the way they write about the players. The fact is, other organizations may have some prospects with more skills, but the Dodgers have a depth that is not apparent with any other team. In other words, it is quite likely that other teams may produce more superstars than the Dodgers due to drafting higher. The Dodgers do not get a shot at players like Elly de la Cruz, so they make up for it with better player development.
James Outman is having a nice season; I predicted he would be a 4th or 5th outfielder. So far, he looks to be a starter. Again, I can see his development from what he was a year or two ago. I had him ranked as the Dodgers’ #12 prospect. It will take two or three years to determine where he lands, but he has exceeded expectations thus far.
AF can take advantage of this hype in the trade market. When he snagged Sherzer and Trea, the typical story was how the Dodgers gave up “their top two prospects.” My guess, however, is the Dodger brass already valued Cartaya more than Keibert, and perhaps some younger pitchers more than Gray. The Nats needed MLB-ready talent–and both Keibert and Gray were blocked on the Dodgers’ roster.
I like blockbusters. They’re fun. The Scherzer-Trea deal was fun. It’s highly unlikely, but at least one baseball scribe thinks the Sox could put Luis Robert on the market. Big-time talent. What would we offer for Robert and Giolito?
I’d start with Cartaya, because the Sox will need catching and the Dodgers already have Smith and Rushing is rushing. Add Busch, because he has no clear fit with the Dodgers–and his debut was underwhelming. Add DeLuca or Pages or Ramos to replace Robert. Maybe Outman, because Robert strikes out too much too. Add a near-ML arm like Knack or Nastrini, plus a lottery ticket type.
OK, this might be an overpay, but the point is that the Dodgers have the player capital to do something bold.
This is the truth, but we shall have to see. AF will not make a move out of desperation. Ruiz and Gray still have not arrived. I liked Ruiz over Smith, but Smith has developed like no one ever imagined! Cartaya is the Wild Card. The Dude has “light-tower power,” but so does Edwin Rios. His development has stalled this season. There could be reasons for this that we are not privy to, or he could simply not be that good.
It has taken Andrew Friedman years to rebuild the Farm System, and while it might be lacking in “Superstar Power” it makes up for that in depth, and there may be some marginal superstars there as well. So it will be interesting to see what he does. I have no clue, but I do think that it may be difficult to get a starter better than Landon Knack via trade without gutting the farm. I think we will see him soon.
In my opinion, the Dodgers do not have to do anything. David Peralta and Jason Heyward improved this season. I can see Vargas doing the same. Michael Busch has a nice bat and is a better fielder than given credit for. Jonny DeLuca is a lefty killer. I could go either way: Trade the farm or stand pat! An argument could be made for both. Making blockbuster trades no longer works like it once did because of the randomness of the playoffs, which makes them somewhat of a crapshoot.
In conclusion, what determines how good a player might be? There are so many factors that we could not list them all, but when you watch a player 50, 70, or 90 times a season for a few years you can see the cream rise to the top. It’s hard to describe, but “I know it when I see it!”
Quick: Which Dodger rookie has the highest batting average? Jonny DeLuca (albeit a small sampling).
Before I sign off, the Dodger Bullpen ERA is up to #24. Hudson is going to help… a lot. Give him a week or two.
Speaking of prospects:
Knack is scheduled today at OKC. If I had my way I would call him up to make a start on Friday or Saturday.
Kid has looked awesom his last few games .
Bullpen needs rest, rest and some more rest. Start him and have Grove ready should Knack struggle.
Now Graterol is ailing with what they call and arm problem . If the luck of our Dodgers continues with pitchers Bazooka will face TJ surgery.:-(
More prospect news:
Josue dePaula continues to rake at RC. 2 more hits yesterday, now batting a more than respectable .260. Again, only 18 years old and facing opponents who are 2-3 years older than him.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
In my opinion the Dodgers need a RH bat and a playoff caliber starter to have any chance
Totally agree.
And 1-2 quality bullpen guys…
Agree! And now with Hudson’s MCL sprain, TM is right too.
I could almost fill a book with prospects who were can’t miss or close. Remember Kyle Lewis with the Mariners? He wowed everyone with some stellar catches and hitting well his rookie year. He played in 58 of the Mariners 60 games in 2020 and won the ROY. He has played in 63 games since, is hitting under the Mendoza Line and he is now with the D-Backs. I do not remember him, but Clint Hartung, AKA ” The Hondo Hurricane” was the Ohtani of his era. Power hitter and starting pitcher. He finished 29-29 on the mound with an ERA north of 5. His career BA was .238 and he hit only 14 homers in 5 years. Bobby Valentine was about the closest thing to a can’t miss the Dodgers ever had. He hit .249 in his rookie year and .274 the next, But the Dodgers swung a huge deal with the Angels to get Messersmith and McMullen. They also unloaded Grabarkewitz in the same trade. Valentine’s career was forever altered when he slammed into the outfield wall and broke his leg. He was never the same player again.
Nice piece
Not if you’re Duke NS
It’s nothing against Duke – He brought up some very interesting questions that others have as well.
And Mark had some weak answers.
Elsewhere I’ve addressed the nonsense that the Angels “gave up” on Jahmai Jones when in fact he was a top prospect who was traded for Alex Cobb. Did the Dodgers “give up” on Verdugo, Wong and Jeter Downs to get Mookie?
Did the O’s “give up” on Jones? It’s more complicated. Jones didn’t play well–and then he suffered an major injury that required TJ surgery. Meanwhile, the O’s restocked their middle infield with talented prospects.
So Jones moved on, and signed an ML contract with the Dodgers–which is also how Justin Turner and Max Muncy arrived with the Dodgers after the Mets and A’s really did give up on them.
And I stand by my assertion that Outman was never rated highly in the prospect lists. He has outplayed dozens of players who were consistently rated more highly, including teammates Vargas and Busch.
Mark’s own rankings placed Outman as merely the Dodgers’ 4th best OF prospect– or 5th if we include Busch. Let’s recall how, when Outman slumped, Mark likened him to Aesop’s hare (a loser), with Vargas as the winning turtle. (He must have figured that Vargas’s bright and shiny progress would be linear,)
Yet here we are now, and it’s Vargas who is inspiring doubts.
I was hoping that Mark might comment more on my suggestion that perhaps the Dodgers will let Mookie age gracefully at second base.
If so, perhaps Vargas gets packaged in a trade.
A win tonight is huge.
Need Julio to step up and give us 6 solid.
With all the struggles, and all the injuries, we are sitting a game and half back in the division.
I like where we are at, a couple tweaks here and there and we have a good a shot to win this thing as anyone. This Dodger team may have the best Clubhouse as any I can remember. They have shown a knack for not rolling over when they get down…this bodes well going forward.
Double-A: Right-hander Ricky Vanasco, who was designated for assignment on June 30, cleared waivers and was sent outright to the minors. He’s back with Tulsa.
Wednesday scores
Albuquerque 5, Oklahoma City 4
Tulsa 4, Wichita 1
Great Lakes 4, Dayton 2
Rancho Cucamonga 2, Inland Empire 0
Thursday scores
4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Maddux Bruns) at Dayton (Thomas Farr)
5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Landon Knack) vs. Albuquerque (Jeff Criswell)
5:05 p.m.: Tulsa (Kyle Hurt) vs. Wichita (Chad Donato)
6:35 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Peter Heubeck) at Inland Empire (Jake Madden)
I said this before to Mark and I’ll say this again since he brought it up again.
1) I watched Outman in 2021 spring training and I saw something I liked.
2) EARLY in the season last year I was calling for Outman to be brought up. I even got into one of my many arguments with Bulldogs because he was calling for Jason Martin (WHO?) and I was calling for Outman.
You keep bringing up the small sample in MLB that Outman had late last year and pointing at it as when I suddenly got on the Outman train. Maybe that’s the case with others but not me.
Outman is not the Dodgers problem . Kid will end the season batting around .240 with 20 HR and 80 rbi with solid while not great defense. Vargas is underperforming and so are Muncy and Barnes.
Pitching is the bigger problem. Starters and pen. Starters more or less because of the injury bug and pen because too many guys are not performing .
Dodgers only will go as far as the pitching will take them. That was the story before the season started and it is still.
Now with May out for good and Buehler a question mark Dodgers will have to bring in a front line pitcher for the rotation and a reliable bullpen arm, perferably a closer.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If you subscribe to the best talented team has the best chance in the playoffs, then the Dodgers need more pitching than you mentioned.
Also an outfielder that hits LHP good to platoon with either Peralta or Heyward. Deluca being the other one. That would put Betts at either SS or 2B to solve one of those problems. Taylor can adequately solve the other or give Busch a try at 2B NOW so he can get as many at bats as possible before the trade deadline to see if he solves 2B.
I don’t see Muncy as a problem like you do. Sure there’s room for improvement.
Barnes is just the backup catcher. Who cares. But Feduccia can’t do any worse since Barnes set the bar so low.
There’s another thing to think of. How many rookies do you want on the team.
All of this is if you subscribe to the best talented team has the best chance in the playoffs.
Just my 2 cents.
I have a problem with Muncy if Roberts insist on batting him cleanup.
Put him 7th or 6th and it is okay.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I agree.
I have no problem with Outman.
If CT3 can return healthy, he platoons in LF and DeLuca platoons in RF.
Max is slumping and underperforming but it may not be as bad as commonly perceived.
Terrible BA, south of .200, but relatively decent OBP at .326–though still not up to Max’s career average. JDM, hitting behind him, has an OBP of .296.
The OPS of .786 is well above league average (but not up to Max’s norm) in part because 19 HRs is way above average. He’s streaky, so these numbers could rise.
Max’s problem, in a way, is that he walks too much. If half his walks were infield singles of equal impact in the game, he’d have a better BA and fewer fans would notice. But by seeing a lot of pitches, he is allowing teammates to get a better read on pitchers, and running up their pitch counts. I bet Dave Roberts would rather see a 10-pitch walk than an infield single in the first couple of pitches.
The other day, when the Dodgers were down 4-0 but came back to win 6-4 on homers by JDM and Peralta, Max had two walks and two runs. His contributions were barely noticed.
A reminder, nobody saw Will Smith coming, but I did.
Not “nobody” Eric. He has exceeded expectations at the plate, however. I loved his swing from the start, as others did, seeing more than the .240 guy some predicted.
Oops I’m sorry I should have been more clear. The so called experts didn’t see him coming.
Baseball America pre-2019 ranked him #95, Baseball Prospectus #59.
If you thought he would hit .300 with 30 HR and .900 OPS you were smoking crack!
“If you thought he would hit .300 with 30 HR and .900 OPS”
I don’t understand what you’re saying here.
I am saying he is damn near a superstar. Nobody thought that.
Yep I agree Mark. I didn’t see superstar just star.
Will Smith is always projected as a Defense First Catcher!
In 2016 he hit .246 with 4 HR.
In 2017 he hit .231 with 11 HR.
In 2018 he hit .233 with 20 HR
The Dodgers totally overhauled Smith’s swing from 2018 to 2019, and who predicted he would be a guy capable of hitting .300 with .900 OPS and 30+ HR?
I liked his D better than Ruiz but felt Ruiz was the better offensive player. So far, that is not true although Kaybear is younger.
Ok I hear everything you are saying but there is more to it then BA and HR in the minors as you listed.
I always liked Ruiz’s approach at the plate. It was advanced when he was in A ball. However, my son and I got to meet him a couple times. There was just “something” he was lacking. He didn’t seem to have confidence. Didn’t seem comfortable. Sure, he was 19 at the time. But he didnt seem to talk to the other players and didn’t like being around fans.
Now compare that to Cartaya!
I’ll use a line from Moneyball. “He’s the kind of guy who walks into a room and his d**k has already been there for 10 minutes”.
I’m a big time stat guy, but I do believe there are intangibles that are difficult to quantify, other than with your eyes.
I was at the game when Smith hit his walk off homer, the first of his career, against the Phillies. I thought he could be good, but this good? Did not have a clue. But he has exceeded expectations. The only player I saw early in his career and said, this guy is going to be great was Mike Piazza. I saw him rip a double off of the wall in deep right center field off of Nolan Ryan. Next time I saw him he homered deep to right. I knew the kid had what it would take to be a star. But trying to pick stars from any draft picks is not that easy.
In Spring Training of 2021, James Outman had 22 ABs and hit .227 with 10 Ks, and had “a swing like a caveman.” OK!
He was ranked the #40 prospect then; My point is that there was not much to like about him until the 2021 Regular Season when he hit .266. 2022 was his “breakout year when he jumped from Prospect #15 to #10.
Jason Martin was at the time a 26 year old minor league free agent who was playing at OKC and having a very good year. Outman started the season at AA and moved to OKC after 68 games. Outman had 17 homers at AA and would hit an additional 14 at OKC giving him 31 for the year. He drove in 106. Martin spent the entire season at OKC hitting .285 with 32 homers and 107 driven in. They both hit left handed. Both had OPS numbers over .900. Basically the same guy except Martin had more experience at the time and had 85 games big league experience. So one or the other would have been a good call at the time since they both were raking at AAA. Martin is now playing in the Korean Baseball Association.
“Martin is now playing in the Korean Baseball Association.”
And there you have it. Where is Outman playing? Martin never caught on at the MLB level. He’s a AAAA player. The better suggestion (my suggestion) was to call up Outman.
Well good for you. You should work for the Dodgers you are so damn smart and insightful. Even blind squirrels finds nuts Eric, and school is still out on Outman. He is going to have to prove he can do it year after year. I have seen numerous one-year wonders. And Outman isn’t exactly lighting up the league.
I know we absolutely need some length from our starters to take some pressure off the bullpen arms but I would have had the hook out for Miller after he gave up the 3 run homer to Suwinski in the 4th. He looked like he just didn’t have it.
To Doc’s credit, he left him in to sink or swim. And the kid responded getting in a valuable 5.2 innings on 101 pitches.
Nice to see Doc stay with the kid and nice to see him respond.
Show ya what I know.
Good discussion. Duke’s trade scenario is realistic. Albeit, probably unlikely. But if AF does make a big move, that’s probably what it will look like.
Opinions on if AF will go big or stay small?
Depends on who is available and where our roster stands. He has gone big in the past. I really don’t know.
Prospect evaluation is relatively easy on the lower levels. I’m no scout, by any means. But my son and I have gone to over 100 CA league games in the last 7 or 8 years. I haven’t much since the CA league dropped to low A from high A. Many of the best prospects often jump from Rookie to high A. (Outman skipped Rancho and went directly to the Loons, for example). So it’s not as interesting anymore.
But evaluating young players at the lower levels isn’t as difficult as one would think. Those with significant talent stand out like sore thumbs. I’ve often used the term “a man among boys”. And that’s a “I know when I see it” thing. It’s athleticism, obviously playing ability but also “presence”. Some players seem like they’re scared of their own shadow. While others you see confidence, determination and focus.
Players come into the lower levels raw. Some don’t impress much but develop over time and become viable prospects. Most players at these levels are little more than roster depth (you have to field 10 players every game, after all). The really talented ones stand out, quite obviously.
First time I saw players like Seager, Bellinger, Urias… they were men among boys. I saw the same thing with Vargas. It was obvious that he had an advanced approach at the plate, made consistent very hard contact and rarely chaises anything. Pitchers in A ball were totally overmatched. And he was confident, outgoing and completely comfortable with where and who he was. My son got to know him when he was down here. You don’t see that often. Will Smith, on the other hand, wasn’t terribly impressive. Especially for a 1st round pick. But he got a lot better as the seasons went on and “figured it all out” AAA. Jaren Kendall was also totally unimpressive when he came to the Quakes. He was also a 1st round pick. Crazy good athlete and a super nice guy (he was my son’s favorite player when he was down here). But he looks out of sorts and pitchers often completely befuddled him. In A ball! His swing made Outman’s look like a work of art. I only had to watch him play a few times to know he was going to have an uphill battle. And, unlike Smith, he never did figure it out. Lux was the similar. Great athlete but struggled with the bat in A ball. But you could see the massive potential. And his makeup was 100% determination. By AA he figured it out and ended up having one of the best minor league seasons in Dodger history between AA and AAA. DJ Peters destroyed CA league pitching. Did reasonably well in AA and AAA but never could shorten his swing and not strikeout nearly 50% of the time. Believe it or not, DJ is now a pitcher in the Tigers org. They began converting him after ST.
My point? There is a reason why many scouts agree on many prospects. Even an untrained novice like myself could pretty much nail who the best prospects are. It gets more complicated by the time players get to AAA and much much more complicated when predicting which good players in AAA can make the transition to success at the MLB level. That’s the secret sauce. And not many can do it. A lot of it is totally unpredictable at that point. Among the top rated prospects the Dodgers have traded, few have found much more than mediocre success in MLB. I think the Dodgers internal scouting is much better than what fans get to see. And much better than most other teams. Ask the Orioles and Rangers. Only a single player we sent to them are still with those orgs or MLB (Dean Kremer).
I still believe that Vargas will find success. It just may take more time. Just as Lux struggled when early on but really figured it out last season before he got banged up. What Vargas has is rare. And his intangibles are off the charts. I still think he will figure it out at the MLB level. The Dodgers are going to give him a long runway this year and next. Just as they did Lux.
And I haven’t given up on Cartaya. If you see him play and meet the guy in person (my son and I did several times) you’d see his potential too. He was also “a man among boys”. He’s still struggling in AA (hitting .200) but hit his 11th home run last night. I also think he will “figure it out”.
Ya know it when you see it. Until AAA. Then I don’t know shit.
That is just a spot on terrific post Jayne Cobb. I don’t know much about hockey but when I attend an NHL game, it takes about a period to see who the best players are, without knowing any names. Their skills are readily apparent. They’re faster or stronger or more physical. They just stand out. They have it.
From many years of playing, growing up with the game, being around watching and talking baseball with smart people, I’m good at spotting talent. But you are so right. I’ve seen plenty of “can’t miss” guys, who missed. They can be easy to spot in MiLB but the jump to the big leagues is so hard to predict. I love AA baseball where young talent is stashed. You can see mechanics and fundamentals that are impressive. I’m amazed at the size of pitchers today. One 6’4″ to 6’7″ pitcher after another throwing a hundo in Fall Ball. But predicting who will make it and who won’t can be summed up in 2 words. “YaNever Know”.
I did see Adley Rutschman catch is first game at Oregon State as a freshmen and he looked like a young switch hitting Buster Posey. He was as “can’t miss” as they come.
He even kicked a 60 yard field goal in high school.
There is no substitute for seeing a player in person. Usually, it takes several times. I have seen Vargas, Smith, Lux, Busch, and many others dozens of times. Cartaya and Vargas have “IT” – whatever it is, but they are different.
In 2006, I visited the Gulf Coast League Dodgers and watched a few games. I saw no position players that I thought were worth a second look. The farm system was deplorable then.
There was, however, one pitcher who made my heart race. Two other Dodger fans traveled with me the next year to see him pitch in Beloit, WI. The Ball just came out of his hand differently, and his 12-6 curve was jaw-dropping. Clayton Kershaw was the real deal.
I look back at some of those prospects and realize what an abundance of talent the Dodgers now have. It is phenomenal.
I wish I had had the opportunity to see Kersh in the minors. I heard stories. But I was a new father and my days of spending late hours at the ballpark (and playing adult league ball myself) had to be put on hold. Until my son turned 7 or 8 and caught the disease.
Speaking of “it”. Verdugo is having a solid season in Boston. I was always impressed with his play on the field. But the fist time my son met Alex (asking for an autograph)… I was like “huh?, who the hell is this dude”. He had cornrows and about 125lbs of jewelry on and was dressed like a teenage kid in rural Wisconsin who wanted to pretend he was in a gang. He was, well….. kinda “douchie”. He had “it”. I just wasn’t sure what that “it” was.
Mark do you think it’s better for Vargas to go back to OKC and play everyday and regain his confidence and his swing or stay up and play sporadically and try to figure it out up with the Dodgers?
I will defer to the Dodgers, but it sounds like (so far) they have no intention of sending him back down.
Mike Digiovanna of The LA Times wrote an excellent piece a few days ago:
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-06-28/rookie-miguel-vargas-second-base-hitting
Miguel Vargas makes strides at second base for Dodgers, but at what cost at the plate?
They talk about his progress at 2B defensively:
“Vargas’ eyes light up when asked if the work he is putting in with Ebel is paying off — ”Yeah, yeah, 100%,” he said with a grin — but a strange thing happened on the way to the 23-year-old becoming a more proficient defender at a position he made only 27 starts at in five minor league seasons:
He suddenly forgot how to hit, which is the skill that got the Cuban native to the big leagues in the first place.
“It’s a mental break more so than anything,” Roberts said. “I had a great conversation with him [on Sunday] to kind of ease his mind, to let him know our confidence in him hasn’t wavered. I think for me, it’s just going back to what he does really well, and that’s to get hits.
“If we can kind of simplify it to that, to swing at good pitches and not try to do too much, to not have to be a carrier [of the offense] and slug, just to get hits, I think things will start to turn. But I’m really proud of the fact that the defense hasn’t been compromised.”
Vargas was the best pure hitter in the farm system, a gap-to-gap slugger who hit .313 with an .878 OPS, 49 homers and 265 RBIs in 410 minor league games.
He hasn’t been as prolific at the plate in the big leagues, with a .201 average, .678 OPS, seven homers, 14 doubles and 30 RBIs in 72 games entering Wednesday, but he has looked overmatched for much of the past 2½ weeks.
“I think once you start to struggle, you start to press a little bit, you try to get things back in one game, one at bat, and then it just snowballs,” Roberts said. “It’s not just young players — it happens to veteran players, too — but it’s more magnified for a younger player. Hopefully this little reset will [help him] get back on track.”
The problem, Vargas said, hasn’t been swinging at bad pitches or a lack of contact. His 20.7% chase rate entering Wednesday is actually well below the league average of 28.4%, and his 22.0% whiff rate was below the 24.8% league average.
“I feel like I’m seeing pitchers well, but I’ve been missing a lot of pitches in the zone,” Vargas said. “Sometimes in the big leagues, you only get one pitch, and if you miss it, it sucks. But I don’t feel like I’ve lost my confidence, and that’s what matters for me.”
The juxtaposition of Vargas’ struggles at the plate and improvement in the field makes you wonder if his offense is suffering because he’s expending so much time and energy on defense.
When Freeman moved to third base for 16 games with the Atlanta Braves in 2017, he hit .286 with an .881 OPS, still solid production but a dip during a season in which he hit .307 with a .989 OPS.
“I mean, I’m sure,” Freeman said when asked if a player’s offense can lag when he’s focused so much on defense. “When I switched to third base in 2017, that’s all I thought about, was making sure I didn’t mess up in the field. And I didn’t hit as well playing third, so it affected me.”
Vargas doesn’t feel like his offensive preparation has taken a back seat. He’s spending as much time in the batting cages now as he did when he hit .290 with a .914 OPS, three homers, seven doubles and 12 RBIs in 16 games from May 2-20.
“I feel like I’ve been working both sides of the ball pretty well,” Vargas said. “Obviously, when you don’t have good results on offense, you feel really bad. But I feel confident, and every time I go up to hit, I feel I’m in a good position to compete.”
Vargas may be losing some starts at second base to Mookie Betts, but the Dodgers haven’t lost faith in him. Vargas has shown flashes of the offensive player he was in the minor leagues, and they believe his bat will play in the big leagues.
“Miguel is a really good hitter,” Freeman said. “He’ll be fine.”
Mookie, Freddie, JDM, Buehler, Kershaw, and Roberts all insist he will be an outstanding player. I still believe.
What do you expect them to say?
Would you expect them to badmouth Vargas?
If you can cite any examples of Dodgers pissing on teammates in interviews, that would really be something. Anybody who trashed a teammate would be known as a trashy teammate.
Vargas could and should be OK, but I think your prediction of an eventual MVP is absurd. Early on, was it reasonable to think Vargas could be ROY? Sure, because obviously the Dodgers believed in him and all the hype about his bat. He was performed far, far below expectations.
As for Jahmai Jones, it’s amazing that someone who portrays himself as a Great Sage of All Things Baseball would say the Angels “gave up” on him.
Why do I have to repeat this? Jones was a top prospect with the Angels and they traded him to the O’s for Alex Freaking Cobb, a darn good veteran pitcher. This is the same Alex Cobb who right now leads the Giants rotation with a 2.91 ERA and a 6-2 record. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Dodgers had somebody like Alex Cobb right now?
It’s really hard to take your scouting “intel” seriously when you make such faulty judgments. Is Jones limited defensively? Well, sez you. Is he really limited offensively? Well, at OKC he put up some pretty impressive numbers: a .292 BA, a .427 OBP (!!!) and a OPS of .969. You say he lacked power–but he hit 9 HRs in half a season. But it’s that OBP that really stands out. Sure seems like a guy who can get on base! Must have had a lot of quality ABs, right? He walked 46 times against 55 Ks. A 4/5 ratio is really good!
Plus he bats righthanded. Don’t the Dodgers need that? Isn’t a righty bat on the shopping list?
It’s baffling.
I truly hope Jones thrives in Milwaukee and winds up facing the Dodgers in the playoffs. That would be a good story, huh? About how the Dodgers gave up Jones–and now he’s come back to haunt them!
But I’ll say it again: It’s Jones who really gave up on the Dodgers, with good reason.
We will know someday, as history will be the judge.
10:10 PM ET
Pirates (40-46)
Dodgers (48-38)
SP Johan Oviedo R
3-9 4.61 ERA
SP Julio Urias L
5-5 4.94 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
SS Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Martinez R
LF D. Peralta L
RF J. Heyward L
2B M. Vargas R
CF James Outman L
C A. Barnes R
Clear-day
70° Wind 10 mph Out
I was hoping to see Mookie at 2B with De Luca inserted. I don’t care if it’s a RHP….I just want to see what the kid can do.
De Luca is going to play RF or LF only when a LHP is starting. He is a lefty-killer.
One of these nights, Vargy is going to Break Out!
Daniel Hudson has just been put on the IL with a sprained MCL.
I’m guessing this ends his career.
How the hell did he pitch with that last night (or when exactly did it happen)?
I’m not surprised…..he looked horrible last night….struggling big time…..I figured it was only a matter of time he would go back down….hate to be so pessimistic but when it rains it pours,,,,
I feel bad for Hudson. AF will probably now go out and sign a couple of more broken down/injured relief pitchers, sign them for the balance of this season and a 2024 contract with the hope they will rehab and be ready for ST. How’s that plan working out for us?
How’s that working out? Well, let’s see, we’re 1.5 games out of first place in our division.
Don’t worry, norcal, we’re getting Ohtani, Stroman and Hader at the deadline.
Put down the crack pipe and back away slowly! 😉
After I hit the pipe, I realized that progress isn’t linear.
DODGERS RECALL NICK ROBERTSON & ALEX VESIA
LOS ANGELES – Los Angeles Dodgers recalled right-handed pitcher Nick Robertson and left-handed pitcher Alex Vesia, placed right-handed pitcher Yency Almonte on the paternity list and Daniel Hudson on the 15-day injured list with right knee MCL sprain.
Robertson, 24, returns for his second stint with the club and he is 0-0 with 7.04 ERA (6 ER/7.2 IP) and eight strikeouts. With Oklahoma City, he was 2-0 record with a 2.73 ERA (8 ER/26.1 IP) and 39 strikeouts. He is in his fourth minor league season with the Dodgers, and he is a combined 5-7 with a 3.58 ERA (67 ER/168.1 IP) and 212 strikeouts in 133 games. He was originally a seventh-round selection in the 2019 First Year Player Draft out of James Madison University.
Vesia, 27, returns for his third stint with the team after going 0-4 with a 7.58 ERA (16 ER/19.1 IP) and 30 strikeouts in 23 games with the Dodgers this season. He appeared in 13 games for the Oklahoma City Dodgers, allowing five runs in 13.1 innings with 22 strikeouts. He has been in the Major Leagues parts of four seasons with Miami (2020) and Los Angeles (2021-23) and he is 8-6 with 168 strikeouts in 117.2 innings. He was originally acquired from the Miami Marlins on February 12, 2021 along with right-hander pitcher Kyle Hurt in exchange for right-handed pitcher Dylan Floro.
Almonte, 29, has appeared in 38 games, posting a 3-1 record with a 5.15 ERA (21 ER/36.2 IP) and 36 strikeouts. He has been with the Dodgers two seasons, and he is a combined 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA (25 ER/72.0 IP) and 69 strikeouts. He has been in the Major Leagues parts of six seasons with Colorado (2018-2021) and Los Angeles (2022-23) and he is combined 7-5 with a 4.50 ERA (98 ER/196.0 IP) and 182 strikeouts. He was signed by the Dodgers on March 16, 2022.
Hudson, 35, recorded the save last night, tossing a scoreless inning with two strikeouts against the Pirates. He has pitched in three games, allowing two hits in 3.0 innings with five strikeouts. In 15 Major League seasons with Chicago (2009-10), Arizona (2010-16), Pittsburgh (2017), Los Angeles (2017, 2022), Toronto (2019), Washington (2019-21), San Diego (2021) and Los Angeles (2022-23), he is a combined 59-43 with a 3.79 ERA (334 ER/792.1 IP) and 754 strikeouts.
I would not assume that Hudson is done. I guess an MRI will determine how bad the MCL Sprain is. He was out up until now with ACL Surgery. When it rains, it pours.
Brutal. Feel terrible for Hudson. Will we have even one pitcher healthy and make it through the year unscathed!
Bellinger was 4-4 today and hitting .298 and the Cubs will probably be sellers. Just sayin
…..but RVS couldn’t fix him, he just needed a change of scenery so my sources say.
And Lane Thomas for Nationals is having a heck of a year
..and w/o fanfare, under-the-radar.
I watched all four of his AB’s and he has cut down his swing soooooo much!
The Dodgers know him.
Crazier things have happened.
Belli is up to .298 but he only has 8 HRs.
He’s back to being a good player, but far from MVP caliber. He’s not the Belli we used to know.
I would take it, He missed a couple of weeks on the IL and hadn’t hit a homer until tonight’s game. But he is hitting line drives and not long fly balls and he has drastically reduced his K rate. He went 4-4 in the Cubs loss. I would rather have him hitting for average than power. The power will come.
Landon Knack is here in L.A. in case Graterol goes to the IL.
I think he is going to start Saturday.
I hope so.
It’s great that the pitching prospects get a taste of the majors. Some may thrive. The Dodgers could also decide to use an minor league SP as an RP.
It could also serve as a showcase for a trade. Most teams that deal a frontline pitcher will want a potential frontline back.
If dodgers went and got Hornier Bellinger and Stroman at trade deadline it would give you a second baseman a starting pitcher and Bellinger in centerfield and move heyward and outman to be in leftfielders down the stretch Bellinger fielding wise looks like the only outfieldeer I would want in any of those potential teams to trade with and that Hornier could play third and move Muncy to second base and send Vargas down the fans would like Belli back and if he doesn’t produce he becomes a free agent again or if he does hit them they resign him and have a outfield if Outman Belli and Betts and off season figure out third base and second base shortstop problem. Has any team ever done that traded for a free agent that went to another team and then take him back.
You do realize what Peralta is doing right now!
You talking about Nico Hoerner? Ok, just what do you think it would cost the Dodgers to get those three players? By the way, Hoerner has played exactly 9 games at third in his major league career and none this year. He is under team control until 2027. So he would not be cheap. Neither would Stroman or Belli because even though they are rentals, they would get at least half of the salaries they are now making. Stroman would be getting around 10 mil and Belli 6. Stroman also has a team option for 21 million. To get all three of those guys would take a huge package of prospects. And maybe a MLB ready player or two. And their GM is not going to just give them away. Greg Maddux left LA as a free agent then a year later they traded with the Padres to get him back. But in the same season, I cannot remember any one ever doing that.
Here we go again with ball/strike calls. Electronic strike zone, electronic strike zone, electronic strike zone, ad infinitum.
Lately, Vargas seems to get the shaft. I guess it evens out later!
Has Austin Gauthier made any prospect lists yet?
Signed as an undrafted free agent out of Hofstra. Middle infielder. Zipped through Rancho and Great Lakes, and now at Tulsa. Over 70s games in 2023, riding GL and Tulsa, his BA is .330, with an OBP of .454 and OPS of .992. His performance has dipped a bit in Tulsa, but he bears watching. Numbers similar to Jorbit Vivas–but Vivas is on the 40-man.
He has garnered attention. Usually, after the All-Star Break, some of the Rankings Services will update their ratings.
Here’s a good interview with him:
Roberts finally wised up and didn’t bat Muncy 4th. Is everyone happy now/
Ha, Ha!
Be careful what you wish for?
I happen to believe that batting orders are overrated.
The Big Dodger in the Sky just intervened and said, “My boy, Miguel needs a little help.”
YAY. 6 innings pitched
Interesting opinions and posts today. Some random thoughts.
1. Don’t see AF going big at trade deadline. A starter, a right handed hitting outfielder, and one or two relief pitchers. Targeting guys who are due to become free agents after the year. I think the biggest need is a starting pitcher who can can slot in with Kershaw and Urias at top of rotation. This, to me, is not a team nor a year, to swing big. It is not the way they approached the off-season and I don’t see them changing their approach at the deadline.
2. I think, and hope, that Knack gets a start in one of the two games this weekend. Nice to see so many of these young pitchers getting their feet wet this year. I think some of them might get a chance out of the pen in August.
3. Has any one heard an update on Pepiot and Feyereisen as to when (or if) they may return?
4. The one big change in the Dodger farm system these last three to four years has been the influx of talented young international free agents. After hiring the scout from the Blue Jays (?) a few years ago they have really improved. That wave is now at AA with plenty behind them. Accounts for a lot of the depth in the system. Many of them are playing at ages that are two years younger or more than the average age for their level.
5. I am not an expert on hitting by any stretch but Vargas seems to be popping up a lot of pitches and is not real aggressive early in the count. In the minors, he was advertised as a line drive hitter with the ability to hit the ball hard to all fields. He seems to be feeling for the ball now instead of swinging through the ball. Are the Dodgers trying to get more loft to his swing? Those who saw him in minors like Mark and Jayne may have noticed a difference.
His bat just looks slow through the zone. Julio looked like an ace tonight. Peralta should have made that catch in the 2nd. He had total command of his slurve tonight. If he and Kersh come back after the break pitching like aces then we could take off. And isn’t Robert’s brilliant batting Max third! Good sign Max goes left center.
Pepiot and Feyereisen?
No clue!
Damn, I am glad that Doc did not bat Muncy cleanup!
Roberts. Genius move again
I know Mark has been walking on glaciers in Alaska and selling super water all over but anyone notice how much he looks like the Pirates manager? Could he be moonlighting in his spare time ?
Here’s Shelton:
Here’s who I usually get confused with:
Freddie Wills!
Get rid of Muncy!
Ha, Ha!
Is that the Shelton in you talking ?
Dodgers now 1/2 game out of first.
Nice to see Urias and the bullpen come through. Max too.
And Freddie was Freddie and Mookie was Mookie.
Missed the last two innings as we had a power outage. Damn.
Look, we all know Muncy can get hot and hit homers in bunches. I would just like to see him be hitting around at least .230 when he is doing it. He kills as many rally’s as he helps. Two homers in the last couple of days does not change the fact that he still A. Strikes out way too much. B. Usually does not have multihit games.
Only for moronic minds does the occasional HR game by Muncy change his overall assessment.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Landon Knack was suppose to start for Oklahoma City last night,but didn’t. Wondering if he will be brought up and start against the Angels on Saturday.
That would be a smart move by the Dodgers considering that totally overworked and injured pen.
Maybe Knack has the same good fortune as did Bobby Miller and Sheehan when making their debuts.
That pen needs rest, rest and rest. Another bullpen game should be avoided .
Overall the ASG could not come at a better time for this unit.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nice to wake up and see that Graterol pitched an inning, and good for Vesia. We need either him or Gonzalez to have a much better 2nd half as our 2nd lefty in the pen. Could it be possible that we’re in first place at the all star break?
Maybe!