The Iceberg Principle: What’s Below the Surface

When an iceberg is floating free in the ocean, only a small part of the whole is actually visible. Perhaps ten percent of the iceberg is discernible above the water line, while the rest is hidden below the surface in the depths of the ocean. Think about that, ninety percent of the iceberg is invisible.

People are like that too. Many times they only share a small part of whom they actually are. However, no matter what it looks like on the outside, they may feel that it is not safe to share certain things, so they keep those on the inside. They keep deeper feelings, beliefs, and ideals that they are not as comfortable revealing to the world inside. Baseball teams are composed of people… and we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg. What is underneath all of this?

Some players are deeply religious – others are not. Some players, including Clayton Kershaw, are deeply offended by the Dodgers honoring the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence on Dodgers Pride Night. This is to the point where it is rumored that he may not be a Dodger next year. I am certain that other players feel the same way. Maybe this is not an “open fracture” in the clubhouse, but maybe they feel less and less like a team.

On May 18, 2023, the Dodgers canceled plans to honor Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence during the Pride Celebration, only to re-invite them on May 23rd. The Dodgers came into Saturday’s game against the Giants with an 11-15 record since May 18. They dropped to 11-16 with their worst loss of the season, a 15-0 blowout at Dodger Stadium.

I think the Dodgers have multiple problems: One is that other teams are understanding what type of pitches are coming and where it is coming, due to studying Mark Prior’s amazing success. Some of you think I am blaming Mark for the pitching issues, but it is actually a compliment that other teams have gone to this extreme. As a highly disciplined pitching coach, I am certain that Mark Prior teaches certain ways of handling particular hitters. If after a certain pitch is made, maybe 60% of the time, other teams have figured out that a “backdoor slider” low and away is coming next. Even a gimpy pinch hitter who can barely walk can hit it if he knows what is coming… at least he can hit it at a higher rate than not knowing.

The Second Problem that may exist is a fractured clubhouse. Dave Roberts has openly proclaimed his support of the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence. I suspect that as much as a third to half of the team may feel different that Doc, but keep it inside, under the water level of the iceberg. This may not be fixable, but Prior can change his strategy… it might take days… or weeks, however..

There is something below the surface of the tip of that iceberg!

Shallow

This article has 70 Comments

  1. This roster is just not good enough. Sometimes a problem is that easy.
    The opening day roster was a slightly above .500 roster and with the injuries and too many struggling players what you see is what you get.
    IMHO has nothing to do with these so called “sisters”.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. A lot of us like the Karma attributed to the Sisters debacle.
      A well warranted one.

    2. Or maybe those “sisters” didn’t curse, in a baseball game you can win or lose, but there are ways and more against those bastards from SF.

  2. Happy Father’s Day to all the Dads out there!!!! The Dodgers right now are an embarrassment. Is this the bottom or are they going lower? As I’ve said many times in the past, the Dodgers are not a very good baseball team with too many flaws to be fixed in 2023. I hope AF realizes this and doesn’t make any costly future trades to make a short run in the playoffs.

  3. These prospects won’t bloom until we trade them to someone else! Our luck! Keep the faith!

  4. Now we’ll see what Miller’s made of. Stone has fallen to pieces. Remember this day when the parade heads down Figueroa in early November!

  5. These last two games were debacles, but allow me to start with the positives.
    But on the bright side, Emmet Sheehan showed the potential to be a front-line starter. The comparisons to Ross Stripling’s debut were inevitable, but Sheehan’s fastball was special. I think he illustrates what the pitching mavens mean by “carry.” Big talent…. And we got another strong start from Miller, until it fell apart in sort of classic fashion (walk, stolen base, bad pickoff, HBP…. And credit to Wade for nailing a pretty good breaking ball. Anyway, Miller had a helluva run to start a career.
    And in the Sheehan game, I’ll salute Mookie for taking full responsibility for the baserunning blunder at the end. Certainly iIt was his fault for not recognizing how Dino Ebel put the brakes on Busch. But at the same time, Dino was late on that decision–and I’m not sure it was the right decision. Tough judgment call.
    If Busch and Dino are aggressive, there’s a close play at the plate, and Mookie easily takes 3B on that play, regardless of whether Busch is safe or out. If Dino plays it conservative from the start–if he stops Busch at 3B and not down the line–Mookie is more likely to see what’s happening. Anyway, another player might have sought to distribute the blame sor explain it the way I am doing here. Mookie didn’t do that. He simply owned it and took full blame. (This is one of those character lessons my 13-year-old son has yet to learn. If something goes wrong on the baseball field or soccer pitch, he’s too quick to point fingers and reluctant to own his own mistakes.)
    Also positive: Outman came up with two hits after Peralta’s injury. Hoping he gets back on track.
    Now for the negative side of the ledger….
    The bullpen followed one great game with two more bad ones. Ouch. Must be especially tough for Vesia, who had been so effective before the pitch clock. (Well, we need some explanation, right?) So AF probably has a veteran RP like Scott Barlow on his shopping list.
    After the Giants put this latest game out of reach, we learned something we probably already knew. One is that Heyward is not a very good backup first baseman. Another is that Busch just doesn’t have the arm for 3B.
    Anyway, the Dodgers’ depth is really coming into play with all these injuries. The mettle is getting tested.

    1. If Busch would have been the tying run, Dino sends him and makes the defense have to make a perfect throw. He made the right decision stopping him. Would have been two runners in scoring position with one out.

  6. Just maybe here is where they turn on their engines and fight. You can be certain they don’t feel comfortable with last night’s display and I don’t mean the sisters act. Today I fully expect the real Dodgers to show. The answer is inside today’s game. 0-15 ain’t who they are and you know that!

  7. Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there.

    While AF proclaimed the Dodgers would be “pigs” and always go big to make the team
    better every year, it appears the Todd Bohley faction of team ownership convinced others to go small and not go big game hunting in free agency. The decision to infuse young talent, while laudable perhaps has the Dodgers over estimating the talent level of some of that young talent. Let’s hope the big leagues are too difficult as they mature and develop, but I’m skeptical.

    Outman might run into one once in awhile he Ks far too much, Vargas is just OK at this point and not much more.

    I posted late last night that the one FA that was allowed to
    Leave that troubles me the most was that of Corey Seager. Drafted and developed, young, hits for average and power and simply allowed to leave. If it’s true that AF is tow to theee steps ahead of everyone else and looks to the future for his acduisitions he should have been able to foresee that Trea Turner was going to be difficult to keep
    And the one that should
    Have been retained was Seager. Look at his stats and he has 10
    HRs and is hitting over .300.

    Mookie is not the superstar he was signed as. His .265 avg. is pedestrian.

    Maybe a reset year but he better get this off season correct
    And if that means $50 million AAV for Ohtani I’m
    All for it. Watching the dodgers filed a team with four to five
    Rookies in the starting line-up
    With none of them particularly effective offensively is depressing.

    1. I think pigs was not meant to be a multi-year descriptor.

      If I’m right, it’s nearly as irrelevant this year as looking at batting average, number of sacrifices or fallout from marketing events.

      1. That is case of taking a sentence and wildly over and misapplying it.

        It was said in the context of something else.

    2. Seager was not simply let go. Prior to the end of the 21 season, the Dodgers offered him a contract extension in excess of 250 million. He declined, instead he wanted to test the free agency waters. He signed a contract with Texas for 10/365 million. Mind you, in order for the Dodgers to match that deal with Texas, the Dodgers would have had to offer him a contract in excess of 400 million dollars. The reason is simple, in order for Seager to collect as much as he does with the Texas contract, they would have to compensate for the fact that there is no state income tax in Texas. They had the foresight to get Turner included in the Scherzer trade so their butt was covered at SS for 22. They probably knew even then that Turner had a preference to stay on the east coast, and most likely had decided that Lux was the SS in waiting. His injury skewed the whole thing. AF had the foresight to trade for an experienced SS to back up Lux. Mookie’s BA is pedestrian and he is definitely not the same player he was in Boston. But they are stuck with him.

  8. Saturday scores
    Oklahoma City 14, Salt Lake 5
    Tulsa 7, Springfield 5 (12 innings)
    Great Lakes 5, Wisconsin 4
    Rancho Cucamonga 15, San Jose 2

    Sunday schedule
    10:05 a.m. PT: Great Lakes (Hyun-il Choi) vs. Wisconsin (Edwin Jimenez)
    11:35 a.m.: Tulsa (Nick Nastrini) at Springfield (Wilfredo Pereira)
    12:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (Matt Andriese) vs. Salt Lake (Luis Ledo)
    1 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Gabe Emmett) at San Jose (Jack Choate)

    The Rancho Cucamonga Quakes, Class-A affiliate of the Dodgers, clinched a playoff berth with a win in San Jose on June 17, 2023 by winning the first half in the South Division of the California League.

  9. I’m not buying this “valley” is cause by the Sister’s Of Mercy or Perpetual Indulgence. It’s the players who are not executing or maybe being outsmarted. Time for a colon cleanse, blow this out the back end. I’m gonna believe they can make this happen, and do so as a team. They are professionals and there is no crying in baseball. What I am liking about the malaise is watching them play kids and see who can stand tall. This too shall pass……

      1. Amen and we were cookin’ just a few weeks ago. Big three in lineup, plus JDM and Peralta chipping in, and occasional help from Muncy, Taylor kept us going and scoring enough to cover bad bullpen. So injuries plus mini slumps and bullpen getting worse is the problem. Don’t blame outside noise, not trying, AF or Roberts. Sometimes just everything bad happening at once. A long season so lets be positive. So once every ten years or so Ariz or SF might beat us out. It happens

    1. They are robots, impervious and resistant to any emotion whatsoever. They just play the game and emotions and beliefs have no effects.

      Sounds like Aesops Fables.

  10. The Curse of the Nuns for Perpetual Indulgence.

    For whatever reason, maybe not knowing how the Bauer contract would impact them or maybe it was was the payroll and the penalties that come with it, the Dodgers were mostly quiet this winter. Whatever their internal issues, according to a story about ticket costs, the Dodgers are now the highest in MLB and this is what you get to watch. After 20 plus years of being a season ticket holder, I’m not regretting my decision to move on.

    They made no real effort to re-sign Corey Seager or Trea Turner or Justin Turner. All players fans really liked. Okay, maybe Trea was moving east, but then he said he would have enjoyed playing for the Dodgers, but they really had no conversations. No offers were extended. You would have thought that just maybe they would have sat down with him, asked him what it would take to sign him. But apparently they didn’t. Justin is playing first, second and third for the Red Sox. He’s hitting far better than Vargas. I’m beginning to wonder about what the Dodgers say to justify not pursuing some of the big contracts. Maybe they are just looking for an excuse to move on and not spend the long term bucks, which is fine, just lower ticket costs. Oh wait, they continue to raise them every year.

    Injuries are a problem, but injuries happen every year. The bullpen isn’t good and if we look back at the bullpen implosion, isn’t it the real culprit.

    The decision to host the Nuns came high up and when asked Dave Roberts had no choice to say what he said. The players know this. All of this is on management and ownership. I think people read too much into the Kershaw is unhappy with the Dodgers decision to honor a religious hate group and that he will move on after this season. Unhappy with Dodger management, no doubt about it. Not sure he won’t be back.

    So how do you break the curse? Or fix the problem. Is it even fixable? It’s a long season. Other teams have been a mess in June and July and rose through the rubble to recover.

    It probably depends on leadership within the clubhouse and whether Andrew Friedman can make moves to inspire the team to rise above it all and win.

    Some in the bullpen need to step up and turn their season around, add a couple of relievers can help, maybe a hitter or even a starter. That’s a lot of change and it will come with a high cost.

    With so many teams in the hunt, that will no doubt create a seller’s market. Maybe the times are changing and the Dodgers need to address the upcoming season in the winter. July will be interesting.

    When Bear asked for everyone to don their GM hats and offer up possible trade deadline candidates, I honestly had no idea. Years ago it was easy. You, more or less, knew which teams would sellers and buyers.

    As of now, the starting pitching has internal options, apparently the bullpen doesn’t other than a couple off the IL.

    Hopefully, Vargas and Outman hit better.

    What a difference a year makes.

  11. No matter what we think of Friedman, the talking heads will swear he’s a genius. We’ll look at Tampa! Best record in baseball Luke Raley is mashing. Arozarena is a mvp candidate. Pitching is outstanding. And except for the Blake snell thing, Kevin cash is a lot better than doc. So who’s the model organization now? We can be. But trading a couple high end prospects ain’t going to kill the farm system. Hopefully Sheehan and Miller can pitch well enough to keep us close

  12. Go watch a Braves game. They don’t seem to have this problem they bring up a player from the minors and they don’t miss a beat. Team plays the same way. But the dodgers Muncy goes down and then Taylor and it’s like. Wait it’s like now we’re watching the OKC Dodgers players in the the majors and you can tell there not ready for this. But other teams they bring guys up and bam ready for the show.

  13. In response to Bear’s comment last night on Giant hitters. Joc Pedersob has 912 OPS this year and 808 career OPS. Usually OPS is a better indicator of hitting value than just batting average. And while Slater and Bailey have good batting averages, they only have 51 and 79 at bats.
    My bigger point however was that the Giants take leftovers from the Dodgers like Joc and Wood and then turn around and beat them 15-0.

    1. Seems like short memory syndrome. So we took leftovers like Anderson, Turner, Taylor, Muncy etc and won over 100 games. This after losing fan favorites-Seager, Kike and Joc. Are we all forgetting that. Now this year if not for all injuries we would be saying another coup for AF getting JDM and Peralta.

      1. AF signing of JDM has been very good.
        Peralta has been decent recently
        Syndergard was terrible. Maybe the worst starting pitcher in the league. But you forgot to mention him.
        Rojas trade and signing below average.
        Of course, all of this with perfect hindsight.

        The Injuries have been a major factor this year. Losing Lux for the whole year was a major blow. Losing May, Urias, Pepiot, and Gonsolin hurt both starters and bullpen. Dodgers have been bad the last month, but if they get healthy they can still compete.

    2. Joc has been gone for 4 years, and he wasn’t picked up from the Dodgers. The Giants got him after the Braves did not resign him in free agency. Get your facts right. Same thing with Wood. He was traded to Cincinnati and his record until last night was 0-5 so he is not all that. One game does not a season make.

  14. Mark –

    I think you are on to something with your Iceberg Principle.

    If the Dodger organization can’t see the pitfalls in honoring a group that mocks Christ’s crucifiction – the foundation belief of Christianity for 2000+ years – it makes me question all of the executive decisions being made.

    It could have serious and long-term consequences.

  15. I don’t expect to win a lot of games when we field 4-5 rookies, but the tradeoff in growth for these young players is worth it.

    That said, it it unacceptable to lose 15-0 to the Giants. Period. And, I don’t want to hear how “it only counts as one loss.”

    It is also unacceptable to get walked-off multiple times and have a losing record in extra inning games.

    Every team’s pitching staff goes thru ups and downs, but this is where management earns their paycheck — by controlling the burn, and eeking out wins and being opportunistic. Instead, what is I see is a team that seems to be waiting for the next bad thing to happen.

    This reminds me of the last fews years when our record was so bad in extra inning games. How could that be when we had so much talent? Baseball and its players are to be managed, pushed, prodded, and given oppty’s to succeed. I don’t see much of this with our Dodgers.

  16. I agree that there is something going on. I don’t think it’s just the “Sisters” thing.

    Dodgers offense has been abysmal in this series. But they are scoring more runs this year than last.

    Yes, pitching injuries have killed us. But our best bullpen arms from 2022 are trash this year. Not just inconsistent but fold under any kind of high leverage situation. Blowing leads, over and over again.

    Winning is contagious. So is lousing. The timing of the whole “Sisters” BS couldn’t have been worse. The bullpen was in a death spiral before that. It only could have made the “losing” contagion worse.

    I have a friend who’s playing in AAA. He used to play for the Dodgers. I might reach out to him for his opinion on the “Sisters” thing. He’s very religious. I might ask him is he thinks this is effecting the clubhouse. Or if would have effected him had he been on the team. But I’m guessing there is more to it all than that.

    Winning, ultimately, can fix nearly anything.

  17. Bullpen is in shambles, holes and injuries are contributing to poor play in recent weeks but would think it only takes a few players to be deeply disturbed over whole sisters debacle as myself and sure countless other fans are and then to hear manager condone it could only lead to toxic, might be why seeing some playing lifeless and uninspired. There’s a few Catholic’s on the team that management completely disrespected along with others for various reasons. To some it’s a come and gone thing to others it’s not. Turning this season around won’t be easy will take more than just getting a couple better players

    1. Perfect timing, Cassidy. That will give Bradley a couple of weeks before the deadline to work his magic.

      1. Excellent. I’ve already placed my tentative order for my Trout Ohtani and Alcantra jerseys

      2. Thank you I could make it happen but some of these players will be on other teams give me Freeman and Betts and I would make a team and buehler May coming back with Miller and Shehan let’s see so all I need to do is get a starting pitcher this deadline either Flarethy from Cardinals or Rodriquez from Tiger or Marquez from Rockies so next year that will be a better five man rotation and then look at the bullpen getting better a better third baseman and a Leftfielder okay I will work on that. Still say a trade with Yelich Adams and Burnes would really work for these Dodgers then move Lux back to second base next year and put Vargas at third base. Use Muncy Taylor as trade bait and Busch. And my favorite Thompson get him to somebody maybe the Giants would want him I think Joey Bart is available Bart or Barnes hmmm.

  18. I’ve never been on the fire Roberts bandwagon but I’m getting there quick and it’s much more than in game strategy. For him to condone such disgraceful has taken it over the edge

  19. Regarding sequencing of pitching;

    In the White Sox series,

    Almonte givens up 2 runs, then the next game gives up nothing
    Vesia gives up 1 run in one game pitched
    Gonzalez gives up 0 runs in one game pitched
    Grateral gives up 0 runs in 2 games
    Miller gives up 0 runs in one game pitched
    Ferguson gives up 0 runs in 2 games pitched
    Phillips gives up 0 runs in 2 games pitched
    Gonzalez gives up 0 runs in one game pitched
    Scott gives up 1 run and then 3 runs in 2 games pitched

    Against the Giants

    Ferguson gives up 0 runs in one game pitched
    Graterol gives up 2 runs in one game pitched
    Vesia gives up 1 run in one game pitched
    Gonzalez gives up 3 runs in one game pitched

    So is the issue really sequencing of pitches or that over the last two series the players performing the worst are Scott, Vesia and Gonzalez. In other words players who have had issues this year and have only been brought up due to injuries.

    Vesia in particular is having problems with the pitch clock. Last year he averaged 25 seconds between pitches and now has to perform with a 15 second clock. It appears he is still struggling with adjusting to the faster pace. He needs to be sent down to work on clock management. Scott has been DFA. Gonzalez has been at best inconsistent.

  20. I don’t see a leader in the bullpen, every arm in the pen seems to be trying to make the team not knowing where they stand . Say what you want about Kenly the plan was get the ball in his hand , no such plan now as far as I can tell .

  21. I’ve always felt it was movement over velocity but everyone likes that radar gun .
    They say curls gets the girls but if you can make them laugh is key, same thing . I’m a fan of the two seamer, pitch to contact.

  22. 4:10 PM ET

    Giants (38-32)
    Dodgers (39-32)

    SP Logan Webb R
    5-6 3.15 ERA
    SP Tony Gonsolin R
    4-1 1.93 ERA

    Confirmed Lineup
    SS Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    LF D. Peralta L
    DH J. Martinez R
    CF James Outman L
    2B M. Vargas R
    RF J. Heyward L
    3B M. Busch L

  23. Jacob Amaya. 1 – 3 so far with a run scored for Miami
    I personally wasn’t for the trade, but I understood it from the Dodgers point of view. I thought they wanted Rojas to mentor Vargas. I didn’t understand the extension though that made no sense to me

  24. They say Ohtani probably won’t stay with the Angels because he wants to go to a team that wins.
    The Dodgers are favored to land Shoehei because he wants to go to a team that wins.

    If the Angels win today and we lose, they will have a better record than we do.

  25. A little too early to bunt in that situation, but we finally scratched one across after 14 shut out a innings

  26. Peralta looked like the coache’s kid on my son’s Ponu team from 5 years ago on that F**k up.

    That can’t happen.

    No juice box for Davy.

  27. Gonso already tiring in the 6th. He needed to close the door this inning. Instead he collapses and the Giants pull away.

  28. Tony just doesn’t have the stamina. He look like he was already gassed. In the beginning Giants were sucking on that splitter. But then later on, he’s not able to locate his fastball, so they’re sitting on the splitter and wacking it all over the outfield.
    Same old shit different day

  29. Webb, the expert nibbler. No shame for the Dodgers to struggle with this guy on the mound. But Heyward’s last ab was pitiful.

  30. One thing we learned in this series is that the Giants are much better than us. They take advantage of every opportunity. Bear, here’s the new nickname for the Dodgers. The LA Lambs!

  31. Mark is right to suspect the Iceberg Principle is presently in play with this team. But we won’t know what’s “below the surface” until AFTER this season’s over. Though one thing’s for sure – Even Ray Charles can see this team now plays a heartless brand of baseball.

  32. From Jack Harris:

    The sac bunt didn’t pan out. J.D. Martinez was thrown out at home with the infield in on a grounder, then Michael Busch bounced out to end the inning

    Analytic lovers, rejoice

  33. Move Mookie to short permanently and immediately. He is a better option there than Rojas. Find a RH hitting outfielder with good power and defense. When Lux returns next season, make him the starting second baseman. Vargas can move to the outfield or replace Muncy at third. My patience is getting thin Andrew, get off of your butt and make some changes or you shall face the wrath of Bear, something you do not wish to experience!

  34. If the Dodgers can honor the sisters they could have Bauer on the roster.

    Pulling the guy pitching a no hitter and losing the game was a gut punch. I blame the loss on Roberts. You can’t tell me that pitcher could not have pitched another inning or two or maybe a no hitter.
    On the other hand Roberts left the Cat Man in for 7 runs. I don’t blame Roberts for this loss but he sure doesn’t help much.

  35. I would counter the Iceberg Principle with a variation of Occam’s Razor – the simplest explanation is often the best explanation. In the last 30 games, the Dodgers are 12-18. During that stretch they lost Urias in mid May and Dustin May days later. This is on top of losing Walker Buehler for the whole year and Ryan Pepiot missing the first three months. Noah Syndergaard imploded and it became unsustainable to keep running him out there. That left them with Kershaw, Gonsolin (still building up after missing the first month to 5 weeks) , Michael Grove (7+ era) and two rookies making their ML debuts.
    Their bullpen is among the worst in baseball and was stressed to the breaking point by having to pitch more innings than the starters did for a 10 to 11 game stretch in late May and early June.
    Their offense has actually performed well in the aggregate but is heavily dependent on the top 5 hitters in their lineup. They are breaking in two rookie starters in Vargas and Outman and have used two other rookies to fill in for injured players. They lost one of their top 5 to 6 hitters for the year in Gavin Lux. For the last week, Betts, Freeman, Martinez and Smith have cooled off after being scorching hot for a week or two.
    This all happened in a year where the Dodgers purposely tried to hold spending down and patch some gaps in their roster with band aids. Some have worked out well, a couple others not so much. For the time being they will trust their young players in their farm system to backstop the veterans. There are growing pains when you do that.
    To attribute any of this to the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence and a fractured clubhouse seems too convenient. Could it be true? I suppose so. But the people who are quick to blame this on the Dodgers decision regarding the Sisters are the same ones most offended by the decision. I don’t live in LA or California and honestly have only heard about the Sisters on this blog. No doubt it was a self inflicted wound by management if it has had that kind of effect. But still, this roster is not as talented as any of the rosters the Dodgers have put together in the seven year run when they have the best record in baseball during that time. That to me is the bottom line.

  36. Some people always want to speculate on how Doc would do with a less talented team. Well, we’re seeing it.

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