On June 15, 2016, Yordan Alvarez signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers as a scrawny, wide-eyed International Free Agent out of Cuba. He received a $2 Million Dollar Signing Bonus back in the days when guys like Hector Olivera (who was an adept hitter… of women) got $62.5 Million Dollar Deals. In his initial scouting report, it described him as “an athletic contact hitter who has shown some power.” What an understatement! Yordan Alvarez is now one of the best players in baseball.
It just so happens that Andrew Friedman and the Dodger brass decided that they needed another bullpen piece so they coaxed the Astros into trading Josh Fields to them for one Jordan Alvarez, on August 15, 2016. Josh Fields came to the Dodgers and was a nice bullpen piece. In 2016, he had a 2.79 ERA, and followed that with a 2.84 ERA in 2017 and 2.20 in 2018… and then he was out of baseball! All told, he pitched 117.1 innings for the Dodgers and was 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA.
Andrew Friedman is an excellent talent evaluator and he surrounds himself with a cadre of people who have similar skills – both scouting, developing, and evaluating players… but he is not infallible. He is not perfect! He traded away a legitimate superstar for a solid middle-reliever! Rest assured, he is eager to do it all over again, if I listen to all the traded scenarios many of the fans throw out there. Rest assured, that is pure sarcasm! I am sure he is bothered by that. I would be. The thing is, evaluating a scrawny 19-year-old is not an exact science. One never knows what a player might become.
Look at it like this (these are made-up numbers, but I think they may be pretty accurate):
- The Dodgers have 40-60 prospects in their deep system who “have a shot” at making the show.
- Most will not be successful… probably less than 30% and some of them will just have a “cup of coffee.” So that means that 12-18 of those players will make it to MLB and for some, it will not be long.
- Of those 12-18 players, one or two may become legitimate stars (may!).
- Three or four may become journeyman players and see an occasional All-Star Game.
- Another three or four players may become role players (sort of like Josh Fields).
- Sometimes you get lucky with drafts (and luck does come into play) and you can have six to eight players from one draft make it to the Show, but that is rare.
There is no denying that the Dodgers are deep in prospects. They are ranked by many ranking services are the #1 Farm System in Baseball. They are unquestionably the deepest Farm System in baseball. However, which prospects will be great and which will be mediocre? Who will make it and who won’t? Who will be a star and who will be a dud? Evaluation of talent is not an exact science because (wait for it) progress is not linear. If it were, we could just “project” what a player might do and it would be done.
If you ask twenty seasoned baseball scouts to rate and rank thirty players, they will disagree more than they agree. Evaluation of talent is also based on the amount of time spent watching a player or studying film. Why did most scouts love Miguel Vargas? Because of his bat-to-ball skills. He is still struggling with MLB pitching but has quite a body of work to support that he might be a very good-to-great player in the making.
Why was James Outman not rated higher? Well, he had a “caveman swing” that needed “fixed” and very little history to back up any evaluation. It’s OK to root for James Outman (I do), but to rank him higher than a player like Vargas means you were thinking with your heart – you had no point of reference. That he has “crashed and burned” is not surprising to talent evaluators. But, baseball is a game of adjustments. I see evidence that J.O. can adjust, just like I still think Miguel Vargas will be a star.
Gavin Stone and Diego Cartaya were highly rated last year, but this year, they have “crashed and burned.” Diego is finally putting it back together in the last few games. I remain high on both players. Cartaya has prodigious power and at worse, Stone will be a bullpen arm, where he only needs a fastball and changeup. However, there are no guarantees.
Bobby Miller looks like a stud, but Frasso, Sheehan, Ryan, Nastrini, Bruns, Pepiot, Stone, and several others COULD be generational talent… or not. Cartaya, Rushing, Pages, Busch, De Paula, Fernandez, DeLuca, and some others are worthy prospects and maybe one will be a star… or not. How would the Dodgers look right about now with this lineup:
- Mookie Betts SS
- Freddie Freeman 1B
- Jordan Alvarez LF
- Max Muncy 3B
- Will Smith C
- JD Martinez DH
- James Outman CF
- Miguel Vargas 2B
- Jason Heyward and whoever RF
That is a 120 Win Team, but Andrew Friedman made a dope-fiend move in trading for Josh Fields. Remember that if you want a Top-of-the-rotation pitcher and/or a star hitter, you are going to have to part with some prospects. Which one could be Yordan Alvarez? I am not saying that you hoard all the prospects and never make a trade, but who really knows if 19-year-old O’Neil Cruz will be a star or not? At some point, you can sign a free agent or two and allow the farm to supply the players you need, but it has to start sometime… and now is as good as any. I would not trade one damn player!
The Dodgers are good enough to win it all. Yes, the D-Backs have surprised many fans. They won’t win the division, but they are having a hell of a run. The Dodgers have too much depth! It’s a new day – tonight it is Cole and Grove. Can Michael have his breakout game?
Rhetorically you’re correct. But unfortunately there’s the rule 5 draft. The Dodgers will have to trade some prospects or will end up with nothing.
Its a crapshoot with all these prospects. So the more you have the more you can trade away for current needs. So I don’t call these trades ‘mistakes’. Just moves that don’t always work out. Just like other moves. Jason Heyward/ Thor. So one works out, one does not.
Enjoyed this piece. Its central point is completely correct. We can’t have it both ways: bemoan the loss of an impact stud traded too soon AND wanting to improve the team through trade. Those thoughts are incompatible.
I’m fine with holding onto them. Swapping one of the arms for a decent SS wouldn’t bother me though.
M.V. – J.O. = M.V. When will it ever stop. Nice read up top though.
M.V. – J.O. = M.V.
I do not begin to comprehend why you think that.
I said that both payers are struggling. I also said that I believe Outman will make the necessary adjustments.
I wrote it in English – surely you should comprehend that I think both players are important to the Dodger’s success.
It’s never been about Vargas over JO with me. Maybe with you? I rank players where I see them. I was pleasantly surprised by what JO did early, but his season and Vargas’s too, hang on what they do from hereon!
Tell me i’m not the only one who noticed Don ‘The Gerbil’ Zimmer lookalike in Yankee dugout last nite? .
I saw him too
Son of Zimm?
Possible, I would like to find out who the guy is. There is also a guy in one of the commercials where it shows that guy saving the fans in the upper deck by catching balls. He sticks his glove in front of a guy to catch the ball, the guy he saves looks a lot like Weird Al.
Excellent Mark, i agree with you, but please stop with that about Vargas and Outman.
Vargas and Outman are both very much part of this team. Both are struggling, but I think both will turn it around. I you can’t look back, you can’t look forward. We will keep talking about both players.
I mean don’t compare them, they are two diferent “animals”.
I missed most of last night’s game due to stream buffering. Spectrum must be on to me. But yo_ho+yo-ho a pirates life for me.
Tsk Tsk Quas! LOL>
My Hulu live buffers way too much.It has been a problem since the beginning.It is not a wi fi problem.Does anyone have Hulu trouble.
I’m typically against trading away minor league talent. But I see the possibility of a lot players being blocked at the MLB and AAA level in the next couple years. Add in the rule 5, as others have pointed out, and I do believe AF will make some moves at the deadline.
Having a loaded system is great. But it does creat problems from a “asset management” point of view, for lack of a better term. I don’t foresee any blockbuster type trade, but I do think we will add MLB level pitching depth.
Alvarez was an outlier. Nobody foresaw how he would develop into a super star. He had not played in a single pro game when he was traded. So I wouldn’t call that move “dope fiend”. AF has traded quite a few players who were in our top 20 list who haven’t done squat in the majors. Hell, Yusneil Diaz was the cornerstone of the Machado trade. He’s back in the Dodger system wallowing in AA, all these years later. He was much more highly regarded than Alvarez back in 2016 (he signed for $15m, vrs $2m for Alvarez). You win some and you lose some. Some just much more than others.
Well, the Astros obviously saw more in Alvarez than the Dodgers when they aquiried him for a solid MLB reliever.
And just as the Dodgers the Astros did not see him in a professional game.
This deal is one of the top 5 worst Dodger trades all time no matter how you look at it.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Not even close. The Astros got lucky pure and simple. It was not a case of better scouting or assessment of the player. The kid had barely played any ball before he was signed.
That is EXACTLY the point: Pure Blind Luck!
Right! Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.
Even looking back on the White Sox Padres trade for James Shields; the Padres got extremely lucky. That wasn’t some genius scouting move, albeit Preller would love us to think otherwise.
People forget the circumstance. The Padres gave Shieds a fat contract in 2015. One of Prellers first big FA moves. The Padres were all in. They had signed BJ and Justin Upton, traded for Matt Kemp and wanted a top of the rotation ace. That season completely blew up in their face. Preller went into full sell mode in 2016. Gutted the team. The Shields trade was a salary dump, pure and simple. Chicago gave them a couple low level trade chips. Again, nobody saw Tatis Jr coming. The Sox signed him from the DR for $700k. Any other team in baseball could have had him for $1m. But $700k was the most he was offered. That’s literally pocket change in the international market.
Of course, in hind site, the Sox would do just about anything to get a mulligan on that one (much like the Dodgers and Alvarez). But they got (what they thought) was a solid #1 or #2 starter for a mid level minor league pitcher and a 16 year old who hadn’t had his first shave. Shields was terrible, but he’d been very good the previous few years. The Padres simply wanted to dump his salary and get some young talent in return. Almost any young talent.
Was that also a terrible trade? Of course. But nobody saw Tatis Jr coming at that time.
The really really bad trades are the ones where you know that you’re giving up really high level talent for a short term gain or because you don’t want to meet a players salary demands.
I would rank the Pedro and Pizza trades 10x worse than the Alvarez trade. In both cases we knew what we had. Piazza was a bonafide super star, Fox just didn’t want to pay him. Pedro was an electric young flame thrower who came off a 10 win, sub 3:00 ERA season out of the bullpen in his first year. The geniuses in charge thought he was “too short” to be a starter and wanted a light hitting, albeit fast, second baseman/lead off hitter. Pedro wasn’t some “trade chip”. I remember reading about Ramon’s little brother in 1991. He went through all three levels in the minors (A+ through AAA) in 91. Won 18 with a 2.20 ERA combined for the season. Then was dazzling out of the pen in his first season in the show.
Those trades weren’t bad luck. They were just dumb.
Alvarez and Tatis Jr trades were pure dumb luck. Simple as that.
The genius was none other than Lasorda who said, he is too small to be a successful starter. Seems they said the same thing about Bobby Shantz and Elroy Face.
It’s ALWAYS better to be lucky than good!
100%.
Except that “luck is the residue of design,” sayeth Branch Rickey.
Good assessment. Alvarez was a totally raw talent when they signed him. He had not played a single game in the system like you said, and they traded him for a proven MLB talent. So, what’s the beef? You can count the number of prospects who did not pan out in the thousands. And when he has traded prospects, how many of those guys have gone on and had even good MLB careers? Jeter Downs was the main piece in the Betts trade. He has not stuck in the majors. Five players went to the Orioles in the Machado deal. None have blossomed and like you stated, we got Diaz back. Ruiz and Gray are a part of DC’s big rebuild, but Smith is a much better player than Ruiz, so what did we lose? The Rangers do not have any of the guys we traded for Darvish. Calhoun is with the Yankees. Any first base prospect the Dodgers have in their system now is blocked for at least the next 4 years. Vargas and Outman are rookies, one learning a new position. They will either figure it out or they won’t. Sometimes it clicks for a player, and sometimes it does not.
Mark –
Good article on the precarious nature of player assessment and development. We all know now that Yordan Alvarez situation was a mistake; but baseball history tells us it has happened many times dating back 103 years ago when the Red Sox sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees in 1919 for $125K.
Even the Brooklyn Dodgers made some big mistakes as illustrated in 1954 they signed Roberto Clemente to a contract for a $10K signing bonus and $5K annual salary. He was shortly thereafter drafted Number 1 in the Rule 5 draft by the Pirates from the Dodgers by former Dodger executive Branch Rickey.
I think I will leave player assessment and development up to AF and his staff.
Good choice. As a bonus baby, Clemente would have had to been kept on the major league roster for the entire 1954 season. So, they tried to hide him in the minors and not play him very much. But he was spotted by a former Dodger scout, who reported to Rickey. That was a huge mistake by Bavasi.
DODGERS ACTIVATE MICHAEL GROVE
LOS ANGELES– The Los Angeles Dodgers activated Michael Grove from the 15-day injured list and optioned left-handed pitcher Justin Bruihl to Triple-A.
Grove, 26, returns from the injured list after missing 38 games with a right groin strain. He will make the start this afternoon and he is 0-1 with an 8.44 ERA (15 ER/16.0 IP) and 14 strikeouts in four starts this season. He made two rehab starts for Triple-A Oklahoma City, allowing two runs over 10.0 innings with 14 strikeouts. He has been with the Dodgers two seasons, and he is a combined 1-1 with a 5.96 ERA (30 ER/45.1 IP) and 38 strikeouts. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the second round of the 2018 First Year Player Draft out of West Virginia University.
Bruihl, 25, has appeared in 14 games with the Dodgers, posting a 4.41 ERA (8 ER/16.1 IP) and 13 strikeouts this season. In 59 games (two starts) for the Dodgers, he is 2-2 with a 3.68 ERA (24 ER/58.2 IP) and 37 strikeouts while limiting left-handed hitters to a .191 (21-for-110) batting average against with 20 strikeouts. The southpaw was originally signed as a non-drafted free agent on July 15, 2017 after finishing his collegiate career at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo.
DC got more bad news, their 200-million-dollar pitcher, Steven Strasburg has been shut down from ALL PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. He had another setback in his recovery from thoracic outlet syndrome. He has what has been called, severe nerve damage. His chances of ever pitching again have taken a huge hit. Chris Owings, has been DFA’d by the Pirates. Kole Calhoun was released by the Yankees, and Jorge Alfaro released by the Red Sox.
Wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers are taking a look at Calhoun. He got a cannon and gas hit well in the past.
Yordan Álvarez one of the best players? Players? He doesn’t even play the field, I don’t know, but I think he’s got a brick for a glove, he’s just a batter.
To be considered a good or great player, you just have to hit, no matter if you can’t field?
So today’s baseball, and this team is full of great players…
Very true, he is a true DH same as Harold Baines and Edgar Martinez. They proved they are hitters, but in no way are they true baseball players.
Before becoming the gold standard as a DH and having the DH Award named after him, Edgar Martinez played 564 games early in his career at 3rd base. He played there in 12 of his 18 seasons in MLB and fielded .946. He wasn’t terrible there. I don’t consider him less than a “true baseball player”.
Good point, but he got into the Hall as a hitter.
1. MLB has changed the rules so that the DH is utilized by every team; and
2. Hitting a baseball with movement is the single most difficult thing to do in sports, so I consider him a true baseball player.
Alvarez’s biggest problem is his bad knees. Alvarez has also made great strides as a defender. Early in his career in Houston, he was considered a lumbering defender with very limited range. His defensive runs saved above average went from a -8 in 2021 to a +13 in 2022.
DODGERS RECALL TAYLER SCOTT
LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers have recalled right-handed pitcher Tayler Scott and placed right-handed pitcher Phil Bickford on the 15-day injured list with lower back tightness.
Scott, 30, returns for his second stint with the team. He is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA (3 ER/19.2 IP) and 25 strikeouts against 10 walks in 19 games with Triple-A Oklahoma City. He has appeared in 304 minor league games in his career, posting a 43-37 record with a 3.83 ERA (285 ER/670.0 IP) and 537 strikeouts. He has spent parts of two seasons in the Major Leagues with Seattle (2019), Baltimore (2019) and San Diego (2022) and he is a combined 0-1 with an 11.12 ERA (35 ER/28.1 IP) and 27 strikeouts in 21 games (two starts). He was signed by the Dodgers as a minor league free agent on January 3, 2023.
Bickford, 28, pitched last night, allowing two runs in 1.0 inning of work. He has appeared in 23 games this season, posting a 7.33 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 27.0 innings. He has been in the Majors parts of four seasons with Milwaukee (2020) and Los Angeles (2021-23) and he is a combined 7-5 with a 4.75 ERA (74 ER/140.1 IP) and 164 strikeouts. He was originally drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the first round (18th overall) of the 2015 First Year Player Draft out of Southern Nevada College.
Lineup:
1. Betts 2B
2. Freeman 1B
3. Smith C
4. Muncy 3B
5. Martinez DH
6. Heyward RF
7. Peralta LF
8. Outman CF
9. Rojas SS
Grove P
Grove’s kinda fun to watch.
You can see why he went straight from AA.
Two bad pitches to Bauer aside, I hope he stays
Left-handers and home runs are Michael Groves kryptonite
John Smoltz called that second home run to Bauers a fastball
Looked to me like a change up that stayed up , It was only 87
His fastball had been clocking at 94 and above reaching as high as 98
Red Sox beat Devil Rays with JT, Verdugo and Kenley all playing key roles.
Yeah, too bad about the Alvarez trade. If the Dodgers had him, he’d probably be the DH. Still not the worst trade though. Giving up Pedro Martinez turned out worst.
(Truth be told, I was excited about Delino at the time., in part because I foolishly bought into the chatter that Pedro wasn’t “big enough” or “physical enough” to succeed as a starter. We kept his taller, “better” brother Ramon, didn’t we? Did anybody here lament that trade the moment it was announced? )
Rumors abound that Shane Bieber will be dealt. He’s struggling a bit but has been one of the best in recent years. Hmm…
Bottom of the order rally!
Come on, Mookie….
Thompson got a walk but man I feel bad for him because Doc continues to use him the wrong way. Why doesn’t AF bring up Deluca to platoon with Hayward and doc give Taylor either SS or the outfield and that’s the same thing either SS or the outfield.
Quit blaming DOC. You are just killing the messenger. You can’t take THOMPSON over HEYWARD. He either has to do it or move on. Tonight it worked.
Thompson over Hayward? No bring up Deluca to platoon with Hayward for an outfield of Betts Outman and Hayward/Deluca. And then Taylor at SS. Or switch Betts and Taylor’s positions.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect Deluca before the end of the year.
But almost no chance before the All-Star game
The end of my post didn’t turn out right because the timer ran out.
Doc give Taylor either shortstop or the outfield and same thing with Betts shortstop or the outfield.
Come on, Freddie!!
Argh!
Come on, Will!
NO!!!
Bug fan of Grove.
Legit four-pitch mix.
We learned tonight that Taylor Scott is much better that Phil
Bickford who has probably pitched his last game as a Dodger last night. We can only hope.
Grove over Stone at this point!
And why did Thompson hit for Outman when Outman is doing better against LHP than RHP. Doc doesn’t understand reverse splits.
Trayce going on the IL, as he was injured on a check swing.
It is a personal belief for me that the Dodgers are going to need to trade for a front line starter at the deadline. If they seriously feel they can go deep in the playoffs, and maybe get to the WS, they need another front line guy. Not sure who that would be, but it has to happen. And how much longer can they carry Barnes. He is abysmal.
Dodgers are calling up Jonny DeLuca to take Trayce’s place on the roster.
Welcome to the bigs, Jonny!
Can someone erase my comment above so I don’t look as silly and pompous as I really am?
Good article Mark!
Talent evaluation in baseball is a very difficult task. All GMs are going to make bad trades and bad draft picks.
The Alvarez for Fields trade was a terrible trade for the Dodgers. Fields was a decent middle reliever for 3 years for the Dodgers, but Mark omitted his most famous outing. In the 2017 WS against Houston, he gave up 2 HR and 3 hits while not getting an out in the 10th inning of game 2. His WS era is infinity.
And while some call the trade bad luck since Alvarez never played a game for the Dodgers, the team did pay Alvarez a $2 million bonus. This is a significant investment in a player and the Dodgers should have completed significant due diligence to payout that bonus. For comparison, the same month in 2016, the Dodgers drafted Will Smith and only paid him a bonus of $1.8 million as the 30th draft pick in the first round.
The Astros asked for Alvarez, but would have taken many other options for Josh Fields. The Dodgers need to own that mistake and not chalk it up to bad luck.
DeLuca time!
That’s a quick rise from Tulsa to OKC to LA–a faster rise than Outman’s. But it sounds good to me. If he hits lefties, He could stick around and bump Trayce or Peralta to another team. And the promised “youth movement” would be more real.
Except for those pitches to Bauer, Grove was impressive. It was nice to see Vargas come through with the triple. Dodgers had a great comeback opportunity only to have Mookie and Freddie line out, and Will get called out on strikes. (I didn’t see it, but my son insisted the pitch was low.)
Another highlight: JDM played a little leftfield! Will it happen again? Will he get a start so that Will can DH?
Up next is a big test for Bobby Miller. Young gun vs. Judge and the Yankees. Good time to be a Dodgers fan.
JDM played emergency Left Field, that’s it.q
19 year old C Thayron Liranzo hit his 14th dinger last night for RC . Another young promising C in the Dodgers pipeline.
And Josue De Paula also now playing at RC , he just had his 18th birthday couple days ago.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!