A Look to 2024

Posted By on April 14, 2023

I predicted that Will Smith would be a good backup catcher… and that was based on his defensive prowess at the time. No one, ZIP, ZERO, or NADA, ever expected him to become a feared power hitter. He has disappointed somewhat on the defensive side. Well, disappointed is not the right word, but he is not the best defensive catcher in baseball… though he isn’t bad. Austin Barnes is a better catcher, pitch blocker, and framer… to say nothing of his propensity to get ejected from games (That’s a joke, son!)

I wonder if next year, the Dodgers could get him to sign a long-term deal and move him to 3B, or LF, where he would not require so much rest and keep his bat in the lineup? He has played about 60 games at third base in the minors, and while his .891 Fielding Percentage does not look good, it’s a small sample. . He might hit .300 with 35 HR there and play excellent defense (he does have a good glove and an above-average arm). LF is a possibility as well, as he has above-average speed and an above-average arm.

Next off-season would be the time to do it, and he is not a Boras client. The Dodgers could buy out his last two years of Arbitration and sign him to a 10-Year/$200 Million Dollar Deal. Of course, he could catch if needed, but with so many other catchers in the system, he would be a natural choice to change positions. Will is not a big guy – he is listed as 5′ 10″ and 195 pounds. The pounding he takes behind the plate reduces his at-bats. Will is very strong, however, especially with a bat in his hands. It’s at least worthwhile to consider.

Diego Cartaya, Dalton Rushing, Hunter Fedduccia, and Yenier Fernandez, as all catchers who have a shot at making the big club over the next couple of years. Ideally, I would like to see Cartaya and Rushing (R-L Duo) behind the plate, with Will Smith serving as the emergency catcher. It’s not often that you take an All-Star Catcher and move him (Biggio, anyone), but the Giants might have been wise to do that with Buster Posey, who was actually a lot bigger than Smith (6′ 2″/215 lbs.). He would still be playing…

It’s starting to look like the Dodgers may have found a 3B (well, this is after two games) in Mike Busch, who played his second game there. Watch and see. He looks very athletic there and plays there like he played it in a past life.

Additionally, Busch hit his first HR last night:

I think it would do the Dodgers well to let Busch play the majority of his games at 3B at OKC THIS season, and next season, he can take over for Muncy, who slides into the DH role. Right about now, Michael Busch is hitting .367 with a .985 OPS at OKC. Last night, at Tulsa, Diego Cartaya was 3-5 with a Grand Slam. He will likely move to AAA sometime this year.

Speaking of Catchers, Yenier Fernandez was 3-5 last night with Great Lakes. He is hitting .300 with a .968 OPS, while Dalton Rushing is hitting .294 with a 1.007 OPS. Maybe it is pushing the envelope too much, but remember, Will Smith was pushed, and it paid off. Let’s assume that Gavin Lux makes a complete recovery (and that AF is right and Gavin can handle SS). He’s what 2024 could look like:

  1. Betts RF
  2. Smith LF
  3. Freeman 1B
  4. Muncy DH
  5. Cartaya C
  6. Outman CF
  7. Vargas 2B
  8. Busch 3B
  9. Lux SS

Home Cooking is the best!

Bradley should consider starting a Comedy Routine. He make s me laugh!

This article has 64 Comments

    1. Why block Busch? Why pay that contract if Busch can do the job? Use the money to keep Urias. Chapman will be 30 in his free agency. So how much is he going to cost?

      1. It is 2 games at 3B in the minors. We don’t know if Busch can do the job yet. Geez!!

        1. I understand that. But I also know that Chapman is going to be 30 next year. And he is going to get a huge contract. Why would they do that? Especially if they have designs on signing Ohtani or retaining Urias. He does not make financial sense. Busch will probably play a lot more than just 2 games at 3rd over the next couple of months.

          3. Hondo. the front office cannot really comment because he is on a major league roster and that would be tampering. Now, many pundits..aka baseball reporters say that the two teams with the best chance of landing Ohtani in free agency are the Dodgers and the Mets. Moreno has stated he will not trade Ohtani if they are in the hunt. SO most likely if the Angels cannot re-sign him, he will enter free agency this winter and break all records for salary. He is expected to get a contract north of 500 million.

          4. Sorry, but if Busch could play 3B, don’t you think the Dodgers would have tried that by now?
            The way I see it, he is getting reps at 3B to enhance his versatility as a UT guy, not to become “the answer” at 3B.
            The rap on Busch has been arm strength. He was a first baseman at UNC, and the Dodgers drafted him as a second baseman. He’s been described as a very good athlete, but his throwing ability limit shim to 1B, 2B and LF. (Still boggles my mind that Busch, with his limitations on D, has always been considered a better prospect than Outman.) Proving himself at 3B seems quite a leap for a guy who is already 25 years old.

            All considered, I’d wager that either Cartaya or Rushing could be better at 3B. You can’t succeed at catcher without quickness and a strong arm. Many catchers have moonlighted at 3B. The Dodgers sometimes used Russell Martin there. (It was considered sort of a “day off” because of the lighter physical demands.)

            I’m not sure how Cartaya’s defense compares to Smith’s. Perhaps there’s not much difference. But if one is clearly better, I’d keep him at catcher, since the catcher is involved in every play of the game. Rushing is about the same age as Cartaya and is reportedly good defensively. The fact that he bats lefthanded adds to his appeal. As I understand it, he also plays 1B.
            BTW, the idea that a catcher with a relatively compact stature, like the 5-10, 190-pound Smith, would be less durable than a bigger catcher is a myth. Size might add a little strength, but it does not add stamina or toughness. Both Roy Campanella and Yogi Berra were smaller than Will Smith.

      1. If he plays well in Tulsa, he could get to OKC soon.
        Outman went from Tulsa to OKC to the majors in 2022.

  3. If Barnes could hit .250 he’d start for 1/2 the teams in baseball. But his bat has more holes than Swiss cheese! Has had a couple of big hits over the years, but he’s so painful to watch at the plate. Will smith is a 300 hitter waiting to happen. Hopefully Muncy can keep it going, and Taylor comes alive! His facial expressions never change, but inside you know he’s tied in knots. Would love to see Busch at 3rd soon. But could this all be a showcase for that big trade later on? Hope syndergard bounces back tonight, really pulling for him. Yea sports!

  4. I like the lineup but I would put Smith between Freeman and Muncy and try someone else in the 2 spot (Vargas?).
    And I agree @ Busch, play him at 3rd , see what he can do there. Of course Chapman would be great but how many big contracts can you have? We have a good farm and we need to use it, either play them or trafe them for what we need.

    1. 2025:
      C Cartaya
      1B Freeman
      2B Betts
      SS Lux
      3B Smith
      LF Vargas
      CF Outman
      RF Pagés
      DH Rushing
      Bench:
      C Feduccia
      UT Leonard
      UT Vivas
      OF Avans
      SP
      1 Julio
      2 May
      3 Buhler or Burnes?
      4 Miller
      5 Stone

    2. Thanks, Mark for the heads up on the JDM (good dude) story in the Athletic. I’m all in on your 2024 Home Cooking line-up.

      1. I stumbled upon another piece in The Athletic, this one by Peter Gammons that explores the baserunning gifts of Mookie Betts.
        https://theathletic.com/3534689/2022/08/25/gammons-baserunning-betts-dodgers/

        A lot of us here want to replace Mookie as the leadoff hitter, even though he’s one of the best baserunners in the game. Speed is only one component. Instincts, quickness, savvy–those are some of the other elements. As I see it, the top of the lineup know makes a lot of sense. While I’d like Mookie to increase his on-base percentage–and it’s looking good now–his ability to generate runs is unmatched. Freddie is both the team’s best pure hitter and best OBP guy–and he’s a good baserunner too. Both Smith and Muncy provide quality ABs and more HR power than Freddie. JDM protects Max. And it was nice to see Outman get moved into the No. 6 slot the other day.

  7. Busch looked better in game two than he did in game 1. Too bad he is blocked by Smith at third.

    Pages should be at AAA. He is doing well and will surely compete for an outfield spot in 2024.

    If we think Busch, Pages, and quite a few of our pitching prospects are good enough for the Dodgers it would seem that they would get a great player from a team that needs many players more than keeping one superplayer.

      1. Worst in baseball, probably.
        Seems like some guys get the huge contract and then just phone it in.

  9. Well I make you laugh but just giving you possibilities that are out there to make the Dodgers better.

  10. Will has certainly hit better than many expected. I wasn’t as surprised as I always liked his swing. I never saw him as a .220 hitter. I’ve been wrong on plenty of other things but not Will. I also think the Dodgers would like to move him from behind the dish long term for all the reasons Mark pointed out. Catchers can transition easily to be adequate or better at 3rd or 1st as they are masters at picking short hops. If their feet are good enough, then 2nd can come into play as well as the outfield. But don’t forget, Yogi Berra, hardly a speedster body, played over 500 games in the outfield for the Yankees.
    I think Vargas inevitably is destined for 3rd base, so that puts Will in left. I too think it’s worth a try to extend his career and get one or 2 of our young stud catching prospects on the field.

  11. I’m no fielding expert, but Busch’s across the body throws looked good! Quick release and had zip. Perhaps his footwork could use a little work, but I’d say his arm is at least capable at 3rd.

    I thought we were talking about Cartaya at 3rd a few weeks ago? It’s a position he used to play when he first came up.

  12. Hinch on Baez after game:

    “He’s one of the better baseball minds on our team.”

  13. Per FanGraphs, the Dodgers are currently dead last in the National League in offensive production from the shortstop position with a -.4 fWAR and a slash line of .118/.179/.255, and a WRC of 14.

    1. Worst case, which is much more likely than I’d like, it’s gonna be like that until the deadline at the earliest.

    2. Hey dodgerrick, are you surprised that the Dodgers are “dead last” in the NL in offensive from SS? If so, why? We lost our starting shortstop the first week. A guy we’d hoped would solidify the position defensively and hit .280? CT3 and Rojas could be better and may be down the road, but they were pencilled in as back up’s at SS from the start. That’s why we didn’t get somebody else.
      Would that situation be different if we had signed Turner, Swanson, Bogarts or another expensive free agent shortstop and he would have blown his knee out? I don’t get your point.
      We kinda got stuck with CT3 and Rojas as a starter. That was bad luck more than a bad decision.

  14. Thursday scores
    Oklahoma City 12, Sugar Land 5
    Tulsa 9, Midland 3
    Great Lakes 15, Dayton 3
    Rancho Cucamonga 6, Visalia 0

    Friday schedule
    4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Ben Casparius) at Dayton (Julian Aguilar)
    5 p.m.: Tulsa (Kyle Hurt) at Midland (David Leal)
    5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (William Cuevas) vs. Sugar Land (Jimmy Endersby)
    6:30 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Peter Heubeck) at Visalia (Jose Cabrera)

    1. In reading the article, it seems that all the Dodgers interviewed had an extreme sadness about Cody.

  16. Last year i suggested that Busch could play 3B and was told by Mark and the Penguin that he had no arm. It looks like the Dodgers will take a look at him at the position

    1. I would not say he has “no arm,” I have said that I did not think he had the arm for it, but last night changed my mind.

      I really like the defense Vargas is displaying at 2B too.

  18. Trending on pods today:

    The ‘Sweeper’ pitch. Flat, one plane curve. More pronounced break than curve, typically 84-87 mph.

    Ohtani gets noticed with it. Mark Prior start this?

  19. Entering tonight, we are middle of the pack in batting average…

    BUT are

    2nd in OBP behind Tampa
    2nd in SLG behind Tampa
    2nd in OPS behind Tampa
    2nd in OPS+ behind Tampa

    1. The offense is really playing well while getting next to nothing from the SS position.
      I noticed that the walks are up from last season, with Vargas leading the way. Dodgers at No. 2 in walks, following only the Mets.
      It’s early and perhaps just an anomaly, but I wonder if this is part of a concerted strategy. Perhaps there are more “take” signs. Mookie’s OBP is up over .400 in part because of walks.

  20. 10:10 PM ET

    Cubs (6-5)
    Dodgers (7-6)

    Justin Steele L
    1-0 .75 ERA 12IP 11K
    Confirmed Lineup
    2B Nico Hoerner R
    SS D. Swanson R
    LF Ian Happ S
    RF Seiya Suzuki R
    CF C. Bellinger L
    3B P. Wisdom R
    1B Eric Hosmer L
    DH Edwin Rios L
    C Yan Gomes R

    Noah Syndergaard R
    0-1 6.30 ERA 10IP 8K
    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    DH J. Martinez R
    3B Max Muncy L
    CF T. Thompson R
    2B M. Vargas R
    SS Miguel Rojas R
    LF Chris Taylor R
    C A. Barnes R

    Partly-cloudy-day
    0% rain
    60° Wind 8 mph Out

  21. Friday schedule
    4:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Ben Casparius) at Dayton (Julian Aguilar)
    5 p.m.: Tulsa (Kyle Hurt) at Midland (David Leal)
    5:05 p.m.: Oklahoma City (William Cuevas) vs. Sugar Land (Jimmy Endersby)
    6:30 p.m.: Rancho Cucamonga (Peter Heubeck) at Visalia (Jose Cabrera)

    1. Smith was supposed to start tonight but is suffering an illness. At least that’s the report on my fantasy team.

  25. On vacation and can’t watch the game. Can you let me know the welcome Belli gets? It should be a good one! And Rios!

  26. I don’t know about anyone else but I like it when Kershaw talks with Joe and Orel during the game. He’s not interested in it but I think he would be a pretty good color commentator.

  27. So Rojas is a better hitter against LHP than Outman? Because Taylor could be playing SS allowing Outman to start.

  28. Syndergard wasn’t good last year throwing in the mid nineties and now he’s in the high eighties. This isn’t going to end well!

  29. This was a piss poor managed game. Rojas instead of Outman. Jackson in a close game. Another loss on Doc.

    1. There should be eight every day players:
      Smith
      Freeman
      Vargas
      Taylor
      Muncy
      Betts
      Outman
      Martinez
      Do what you need to do with the last outfield Spot. Obviously Smith needs a day off here and there because of his position.

      And there’s always those two or three crappy bullpen pitchers that Doc seems to find and use in close games.

  30. That was like watching someone drown. It made me angry to watch that. I mean where the *@ck is Dodger Pride.

  33. On another thread, our fearless leader posed a question about whether Outman’s current advantage over Vargas in BABIP–or batting average on balls in play–is just a matter of luck.
    But then, Mark has long insisted that Outman, who is LADT’s 4th or 5th-ranked OF prospect, is an exceptionally lucky player–obviously not as skilled as Pages, Ramos, DeLuca or Busch. After all, Outman homered in his first AB in the majors. He hit 30 other bombs in the minors during the season, which just goes to show how lucky he’s been.
    Anyway, I decided to take the Timmons Challenge!
    if we delve a bit deeper into the advanced stats, I think the evidence suggests not that Outman is lucky–but maybe Vargas is a bit unlucky.
    Who hits the ball harder? Outman or Vargas?
    Outman has the edge in exit velocity, by about 3 mph. That may not seem like much, but it can be the difference between a liner that is snagged and one that gets through for a hit.
    Who gets more barrels? Outman or Vargas?
    Again, it’s Outman–and it’s really not close. Outman’s barrel per plate appearance is at 12.5% this season, while Vargas’s B/PA is at 4.9%. (This may help explain why Outman has hit 3 HRs and Vargas has yet to hit one. I assum that HRs are still factored in BABIP, even though the ball usually ends up over the fence.)
    Something else I noticed on FanGraphs: Outman’s BABIP seemed pretty healthy in the minors , and so did Vargas’s. So maybe Vargas has been a bit unlucky. He does make contact–but not as much hard contact as Outman.
    At any rate, the biggest surprise in Vargas’s game this season has been his walk rate. Perhap it’s a statistical fluke based on the still-small sample, but he is walking at a much higher rate than he did in the minors. But Outman is also walking more too, which suggests that his plate discipline is improving as well. As for luck, I’d say the Dodgers are lucky to have both guys.

    I feel the need to chide Mark about another matter.
    He took strong exception to my suggestion that Max, not Taylor, should have started against the Giants after his first 2-HR day. As an old mentor of mine used to say, “Strike when the iron is hot,” and Max was suddenly hot–so why bench him in favor of the ice-cold Taylor? Taylor wound up striking out three times that day–but I would assure you I wanted Max in the lineup before that debacle. (Nice blast today, though! Also by Max!)
    Anyway, Mark’s defense pointed out–incorrectly–that Max was one-for9 in his career against Alex Wood and also–correctly this time–that a Wood pitch had broken Max’s finger once.
    Here is what Mark posted to prove his point. I don’t think you have to be a really careful reader to see the problem here.

    ” 1. Max had a scheduled day off that day because he was 1-9 against Wood (source: https://usatoday.sportsdirectinc.com/baseball/mlb-preview.aspx?page=/data/MLB/matchups/g4_preview_29.html)
    Muncy does have a homer — but just one other hit — in nine career at-bats against Wood, who threw 71 pitches in three innings in a tag-team effort with Jakob Junis in his only previous start this season against the Chicago White Sox.

    2. Wood like to come inside to Muncy and last year hit Max in the hand, breaking Max’s finger, which contributed to his bad season).

    3. Max had that game scheduled as an “off day” ahead of time, and when players have an off day, they plan for it and truly take the day off. Maybe they can pinch-hit, but it is what it is called and it was scheduled.

    So, Max was 1-9 against Wood. Wood broke his finger pitching inside, and it was a scheduled off day. It easy to be a legend in your own mind when you don’t have all the facts.”

    So that’s what Mark posted–and this is what amused me: “Max does have a homer–but just one other hit–in nine career at bats against Wood.”
    So that means that Max was 2-9 against Wood, including a homer. Not bad at all! That means he’s a pretty dangerous hitter against Wood!
    I decided to delve a bit deeper. It’s true that a Wood pitch broke Max’s finger in 2000–but it was in the next game that they faced each other that Max took him deep. Anyway, it’s clear that Max didn’t shy away from Wood because of the broken finger, and that Roberts didn’t shy away either.

    Now, let me express something else.
    While I enjoy chiding Mark for various reasons–like his propensity to dish out gratuitous insults, or the supposed Zen master sagacity before us mere “grass-hoppahs!”– I greatly appreciate all the effort and humor he puts into LADT. We wouldn’t be ranting and raving or bitching and moaning here with Mark’s efforts.
    So as I chide Mark, I also salute our scout-in-chief!
    Outman, he insists, may be nothing more than “a flash in the pan,” while he is predicting that Vargas will be ROY.
    He may be right about Outman.
    But a lot of gold nuggets started out as a flash in the pan.

  34. I just saw that video of Busch playing 3B.
    Nice! He looked solid–though none of the plays were particularly challenging.
    Why the hell weren’t they trying him there after he got drafted? Sure, they chose Hoese ahead of him to play 3B…. but why wasn’t Busch getting some action?
    Bizarre.

  35. Mark, heading to Scarsdale NY to watch my 10 year grandson play a doubleheader in baseball and my 13 year granddaughter play lacrosse under the lights. I will be unable to post today’s Dodger lineup. Will post Sunday’s lineup.

  36. At least the Padres lost today too.
    Best news about this game today for me is that Max hit his 6th HR, pushing his OPS near .950. Perhaps he really is on track to be the 35-HR Max we used to know.
    Some of these “home-cooking” lineups have me thinking that maybe Bryan Reynolds may not be needed, if Vargas or even Smith winds up in LF.
    While that’s a promising video of Busch at 3B, I still like Chapman if the price is acceptable. He’s a true vacuum who would improve the performance of every pitcher. Perhaps only Arrenado is better. And he’s never hit better than he is hitting now, batting cleanup in a strong lineup. He attended Cal State Fullerton, so SoCal might have some attraction for him.
    Still, I’d rather have Ohtani.
    But that’s for next season. This season, I hope we find out what Busch can do.

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