The Cutting Edge

Posted By on April 4, 2023

Ever since Andrew Friedman assumed the role of President of Baseball Operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers, he has pushed the envelope and has the Dodgers on the “Cutting Edge” in a variety of areas of baseball operations. Despite drafting at the bottom of each round, Andrew Friedman has built one of the TOP TWO FARM SYSTEMS in all of baseball. Under Mark Prior and Conner McGinnis, and several others, the Dodgers have built a “Pitchers’ Factory” that is unrivaled in baseball.

I want to say that they have also built a “Hitters’ Factory,” and they have established a program that seems to elevate hitters’ games. Yes, they have – but it doesn’t always work. It’s hard to articulate this because I don’t even know how to describe it, but Robert Van Socyoc has been a huge part of “making” JD Martinez, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Chris Taylor into All-Star or MVP-type players.

But, there is also a downside… or so it would seem. It seems to me that the “bigger they are, the harder they fall.” Cody, Max, CT3, and to a lesser extent, JD Martinez have fallen. It seems like whatever made them great is also their Kryptonite. Even Justin Turner seemed to falter after years of success. It seems like their swings are complicated to the point that if they get out of whack, it’s hard to get back into (shall we say?) the “swing of things.”

Still, they move forward. They have helped re-tool the swings of James Outman, Jason Heyward, and Trayce Thompson. The just is still out, but there is reason for optimism about all four players. There must be something to it because most other teams are emulating what the Dodgers are doing. The only part of this that bothers me is that it seems to be “feast or famine”. So far this season, there have been three feasts and two famines and it has alternated every other game:

  • Game 1 – 8 Runs
  • Game 2 – 1 Run
  • Game 3 – 10 Runs
  • Game 4 – 1 Run
  • Game 5 – 13 Runs

The Dodgers are averaging 6.6 runs a game in this microcosm of the season. That will win you a lot of games… especially when you have that kind of pitching as well. A team doing that could challenge the All-Time Season Record for wins. However, if it remains “feast or famine,” that record is safe. It’s no secret that the Dodgers as currently constructed, are not good in one-run games. The reasons for that are perfectly clear: They refuse to play “small ball.” I understand why – statistics and probabilities say to stick with what you do best and this is a mandate that most likely comes from the Top (Andrew Friedman).

Some of you would be quick to blame it on Dave Roberts, but this is an Organizational Decision and then Dodgers will likely have the best offense in the NL again in 2023. So why change? I am not suggesting that you get away from what made you successful, but what I am saying is you do not always have to “Grip it and Rip it!” When you are locked in a pitcher’s duel, one run can win or lose the game. There comes a time to shorten up, lay down a bunt, steal a base and hit behind the runner. I have seen some of this but not enough.

It’s time for the Dodgers to stop playing for the homerun and just move the runners in those close critical games. It will add 10-15 more wins, and it is critical in the playoffs, which are now a crapshoot at best. Being able to play “small ball” at certain times should be the next step in the Dodger’s Evolution.

Dodgers News & Notes

  • I did not have a lot of hope for Jason Hayward… but that is changing. Great character, an excellent baserunner, great glove, and it’s starting to look like he can hit a little bit. They could have something…
  • After a good Spring, Max Muncy is battling (himself) and can’t seem to catch a break. He might need to sit a couple of games just to clear his head.
  • If Julio can get a clean first inning, he might pitch a no-hitter tonight!

This article has 88 Comments

  1. Yes, Mark, but according to Scott Andes over at ladodgerreport.com, the Dodger farm system is mediocre and doesn’t produce any position players. I think you’re way off base and it was a travesty that you banned him. (sarcasm alert)

    Meanwhile, it’s early. It’s way early, but some encouraging early stats that buttress my fantasy that Outman and Vargas can get locked in a competition for ROY.

    Some interesting early observations, but Outman is already 3rd on the WAR leaderboard on Fangraphs with .5 WAR. Yes, his K rate is high at 31%, but we expected that. However, his BB% is also pretty good. BABIP is .500, which is obviously unsustainable, and that .333 BA is going to come down quite a bit. One thing to note, however, is that his defensive metrics are outstanding, and he already has 3 Defensive Runs Saved. I don’t think defense is going to be as variable as offensive metrics, so Outman has a good chance to be one of the league leaders defensively.

    Bellinger, meanwhile, is batting .067. I’m glad I don’t have to watch his futility at the plate anymore.

    Vargas is also off to an outstanding start and has .5 WAR to match Outman. While Outman has done it with power, with a silly ISO at .583, Vargas is doing it with OBP, walking at a 50% clip, and only striking out 16.7% of the time.

    Vargas has also been much better than average defensively. I really like the thinking of putting him at 2nd base. It’s a less demanding position than 3rd base, and for a rookie it puts a lot less pressure on him than the hot corner. At some point he could move over to 3rd, but I like him at 2nd.

    Some of the off-the-charts metrics are obviously going to come down to Earth, but we can get a sense of some trends.

    1. I’d like to hear your thoughts on why 2nd base is less demanding. I’ve always thought the 2 positions required different skill sets.

      1. I’m not a baseball guy, but from my understanding, it’s easier to hide an infielder’s questionable defense at 2nd than it is at SS or 3rd. Muncy was most comfortable at second. Michael Busch, not the best defensive player, is currently a second baseman. Lux manned second, in part because TT was there, but also many want him to stay there because there’s a belief he can’t play SS.

        My speculation is that making throws from the backhand side is much harder at 3rd than it is at second, and making across the body throws from bunts or dribblers along the 3rd base line is a very difficult play for any fielder.

        I really don’t know for sure. All I know is that Vargas is doing pretty well at 2nd so far, and the rap on him as a prospect was that his defense was suspect.

        1. Look at dWAR values (and a lot goes into determining dWAR, including DRS and TZR) for all the positions and you will see which positions are the most valuable. I’ve posted them here a few times but didn’t get much conversation from them. second base and third base are close in value but I believe second is slightly higher. It’s an up the middle position and traditionally they have always had higher value than corner positions.

          1. I would say for a certainty that with Rojas, Vargas, Smith, and whoever plays CF, the Dodgers are very strong up the middle this year.

          2. The hot corner is closer to home plate than 2nd base so a quicker read and a further throw to first demands extra. Max is really very athletic. It’s called the hot corner for that reason is my guess.

    2. Hey Belli hit a 3 run bomb yesterday! You never know. Expectations aren’t high there so without all the pressure maybe he finds something. Do or die season for him tho.

  2. Dave: The reason they call 3rd “the hot corner” is because next to the pitcher, the 3rd baseman is closest to the plate. Hence the ball gets there sooner than anywhere else. 2nd base requires more speed, but 3rd requires more agility, making it the harder position to play.

    1. Really!!?

      I always thought I t’s the hot corner because the majority of hitters are RH and this the ball comes much harder at the 3Bman than anywhere else.

      Live and learn

        2. !st base is where the plays end more often and they begin at 3rd often so RH bats also figure in making 3rd ‘hot’. Still me guessing.

    2. My limited personal experience (high school and amateur adult leagues) had me prefer 3rd to 2nd. I tend to think personality plays a role almost as much as athletic ability. I liked third because it’s a position where you generally don’t have time to think. You react to something hit hard or you charge at a ball weakly hit in front of you. When you throw the ball, you almost always throw it hard. And almost never to your right side. Footwork and arm angle are almost always the same. Not many opportunities come where you have to judge how hard or soft to throw the ball. There is very little need to analyze angles of approach. And you almost never have to cover another base other than your own.

      2nd (and to a much greater extent SS), you have to not only know the situation (runners on, number of outs ect) but you have to quickly calculate the best angle to play a ball. You then have to calculate where the other players are and how hard to throw the ball. Is the pitcher covering first? You can’t just throw a bullet at the bag. Do you play the ball and take it second yourself of soft toss it to the short stop? Is the first baseman charging? Are you in the correct position to cover first or do you let the pitcher cover the bag and do you backup the play at first? At 2b you have to be much more aware of everything going on and adjust continuously. Much more so than at 3b. 3b you need a strong and accurate arm and the ability react very quickly (almost instinctively). 2b you have a lot more time and more responsibilities so you have quickly choose among multiple options and take into account multiple variables. I sucked at that. When I played 2b I often found myself taking the wrong angle or finding myself out of position to make a good throw. At 3b I just had to react and throw a bullet, most of the time.

      I think 2b requires a higher baseball IQ. Not sure how the two compare with advanced stats. That’s just always been my take.

      Vargas seems very comfortable at 2b so far. I haven’t seen him make any awkward looking throws or take any bad angles. Then again, it is early.

      Just MHO

      1. You covered exactly how I would have. Even better.

        I played left field, third and short in high school. I played all three infield positions in college and I played all over the field in softball and MABL into my 50s. I thought third was the easiest of any of them. As you say, it’s you get it or you don’t. It’s like a ping pong ball coming at you. It’s there in a hurry. As far charging the ball, short and second do that too.

        As I mentioned, short and second are more rewarded in MLB WAR calcs, and I agree with that assessment for the reasons you just skillfully mentioned.

        Vargas is 6’3” 205 and I think he might put on more muscle weight as ages. I still see him at third and frankly I see Betts coming into second base. I’m willing to be wrong about that.

  3. Poor Julio. It’s his turn for nothing tonight! Can this team ever just score 4-5 runs! Oh and why the heck did AF sign Shelby Miller and why does Roberts let him pitch? Idiots! Don’t they know that Miller has bad numbers against lefties who’s names begin with S and wear high socks!

    1. “Don’t they know that Miller has bad numbers against lefties who’s names begin with S and wear high socks!”

      That’s what the fantasy baseball stats say! So there!

    1. same. Hopefully all goes well with that thumb today.

      I was already thinking ahead “hmm, do we let Michael Busch come up and play 2b, or will Mookie move over, or will CT3 get majority of starts….”

        1. Yeah, but I believe “cleanup” meant to clean up the bases in case the first three hitters got on.

          There isn’t the “just get on base” thesis to baseball anymore. Teams don’t play to load the bases, thus teams don’t set their order to “clean” up.

  6. “Feast or Famine” Indeed Mark! This has been my concern with the team since the end of last season. Let’s hope they do incorporate some “small ball” into their game plan. IMO small ball is needed at times in the playoffs.

    1. Exactly. The Dodgers approach works fine during the regular season when the statistics have a large enough sample size. Once the playoffs start, you’re looking at short term statics which may or may not represent a larger sample size.

      While trusting the process can be valid, applying some tweaks to the system, such as small ball in a close game are warranted. However, in order to have your players ready for such situations, you need to use things like bunts/steals in regular season games. Otherwise you end up asking players to do things in the playoffs that they’ve never done. Based on the past few seasons I doubt the Dodgers will do this. So for better or for worse, we’re stuck with what we have.

      1. So, abandon the philosophy that worked for 111 wins for a philosophy that nobody employs anymore, because….

        Because there are fewer games??!??!

  7. Muncy appears to lack confidence at this point. After last year and a 1 for 19 start, who can blame him. He’s hunting walks instead of strikes. I have felt for two years now he’s a DH, and the older he gets the less valuable he is in the field. And he’s proving that now isn’t he. If all he had to think about was hitting I think he would improve.

    I am happy to see both Vargas and Outman OPSn like they are. I do not expect that to continue. They’re rookies. Major League pitchers will find ways to get them out.

    Mark I think the “harder they fall” guys you mention are just getting old. Take a close look at stat pages by year on baseball players and you will see most start trending down in their early 30’s. Heck, Bellinger started trending down at 24. When it’s possible you want to get the guys whose star is rising.

    1. I agree on Bellinger. I remember the first time I saw him play in Rancho Cucamonga, he struck out with a massive, violent hack. I thought to myself “that’s a messed up swing”. His next AB he hit the ball halfway to LA.

      His swing requires perfect timing and perfect hand eye coordination. I’m wondering if simply being in his late 20s has degraded those skills just enough where his swing simply doesn’t work anymore?

  8. Mark, I couldn’t agree more with your assessment about our offensive philosophy and approach to situational hitting. I have lobbied for more contact and less strikeouts which was a huge problem last spot season. I call it the faucet being full on or full off; a feast or famine. Our approach creates an inability to manufacture runs in tight games. When the bats are quiet we don’t adjust well and it has been costly. Remember the old “anyway you can” advice?
    I’m not trying to turn the line up into a band of punch and judy hitters. But there is a time and place where small ball can be a weapon. Put down a bunt, start a runner, run and hit. Force other teams to make plays. It needs to be practiced throughout the season and we don’t want to.
    Last night was a classic example how one pitch, one call, can change every thing. It did for Michael Grove. Top 5, Moustakas up after an opening walk to McMahon. Grove throws a high strike 3 and Smith cuts down McMahon stealing 2nd. Double play that clears the bases. But wait. Mark Carlson calls the obvious high strike, ball 4. (He missed 9 strikes high or low on the day) Now with 2 on, a double ends Grove’s night. He loses a chance for a win and gets tagged for 3 earned run.
    Grove’s fate should have been different. ABS please.
    I love watching Vargas play. He seems to have so much fun. Always smiling, chatting with Freddie and the Vets. They all seem to like the kid. Nice to see.
    Max. Can’t field and can’t hit, right now.
    Trayce Thompson seems to lose concentration and mails in at bats sometimes. He gave away an at bat bottom 7. He casually took strike 3 like he had a cab double parked and wanted to get home.

    1. His 3 home runs seemed like he hit the same pitch in the same location into the same direction.

      1. I was asking that same exact question in my head.

        I know we all really like our own opinions here, myself included, but I can say with near absolute certainty that the decision makers in the Dodgers organization are not reading this blog, and that our opinions – as insightful as they are – mean nothing.

        1. Actually, I have not been back in the pressbox for about ten years, but back then, when you went to the media area, they had media packets which were news articles and blogs from different sources. Frequently, LADT was part of that packet.

  9. Excellent article Mark. And good points Phil.
    My outlook turns very optimistic after a big win compared to two frustrating one run losses. While the hitting production has been like a roller coaster, the starting pitching has been great. Michael Grove deserved better but he kept the Dodgers in the game. And the young players are fun to watch.

  12. Boy when they feast they do it up good. Get so full all want to do next day is take a nap. Curious to see if can stay awake tonight

  14. I agree completely, Mark

    Here is my question: AF and Doc aren’t stupid. The feast v famine dynamic has been an issue for the Dodgers for many years in close games. The 3 outcome approach has been an issue in close games. Why have they stubbornly refused to make adjustments? There has to be a reason. However, I haven’t a clue what that reason may be.

    Freddie is a master at adjusting his swing to different situations. He does it all the time. Seager was very good at that as well. Yet, I’ve watched for years as Kike, CT3, Bellinger and Muncy take gargantuan hacks or take a strike right down the middle with two strikes (usually attempting to work a walk, in Muncy’s case); in situations where we just needed contact. Almost any contact. Bases loaded no out strikeouts! That has frustrated me way more than Doc’s pitching change decisions.

    Why? Is it that they don’t want players altering their swing in situations because that might mess up their mechanics? I’m just tossing that out there because I got nothing else.

    These guys are smarter than us. Yet they do not make adjustments in close games.

    Anybody have any theories as to why?

  15. The three outcome approach is the lamest thing any hitting coach could teach and I want so much to believe that it’s more theory than reality

  16. !st base is where the plays end more often and they begin at 3rd often so RH bats also figure in making 3rd ‘hot’. Still me guessing.

  17. OPS. It would appear I’m the only one talking about it. On base plus slugging. Strikeouts only matter if your OPS is below league average. Our guys led the entire league in runs scored and they did it with OPS and OPS+.

    Mickey Mantle led the league in strikeouts 5 times. So did Babe Ruth. You want to criticize them?

    Get on base and drive the ball. Do it a lot. If you make an out now and then, don’t sweat it. That’s baseball.

    1. I still think there are times especially in a close game when you just have to make contact
      What OPS doesn’t show is the advantage that contact has over a strike out by moving or driving in runners

      1. I understand that. That’s the way I was taught, I played and I coached. What I’m trying to say is that is NOT what teams are teaching now. It’s about a. get on base, don’t make an out. And b. exit velocity. Drive it to the wall, or over it, and watch all those guys who a. got on base run around the bases and score.

        And it has been working.

        When Friedman first got here I didn’t care much for him. I went round and round with Mark about him. It took a while, but I could see clearly it was working. The Dodgers have won more games than anybody since he’s been here. And isn’t it about winning games?

        Now, about October.

        1. You’re right that is what teams are teaching now. And you can’t argue with the Dodgers winning percentage during the season.

          Now, about October?
          Does something have to change, or is it just baseball?

          1. Good question. How do get a team that won 111 to win short series’ against the better teams.

            I think it’s fair to point out the Dodgers were only 14 strikeouts above the league average in 2022. Who led the league in OPS and runs scored? The Dodgers. It’s working.

  18. Jayne Cobb,

    I believe that Friedman’s background in Wall Street and his interest in Statistics and Probability come into play here. What some may describe as “stubborn’ he will say is being “disciplined.” “Stick to the plan and the the plan will reward you.”

    1. My background is also Wall Street. A lifetime ago, admittedly. Probability. Financial modeling. The whole deal. I have been a competitive poker player. No limit Texas hold ‘em. Tournaments. I understand probability and the laws of averages. That still doesn’t explain not adjusting to circumstances or a changing environment. There is typical strategy, then there is adjusting to atypical, but quantifiable different, circumstances. You don’t play the same hand in poker at a regular game verses a tournament when the blinds have massively increased and there is no re-buy-in. You adjust as the odds change.

      At least that’s my perspective. I just don’t see the Dodgers making those adjustments. As if the odds are the same regardless of circumstance. Which is never correct. But that’s what they do. Which I don’t understand. But I will fully admit I’m not an expert in baseball. I’m just wondering what is different? Because they are smarter than me, in terms of baseball. They obviously have analyzed every possible angle. They know what they are doing. But what I do know, I know. And it tells me there should be adjustments. But they don’t make them. Which tells me I’m missing something. I just don’t know what that is.

    1. I am not saying that at all. I am staying that is his plan and he believes it should not be deviated from.

      1. It’s worked. Why change it? I hope he’s working the algorithms for October baseball.

        1. I think there are two issues at work here:

          1. The Feast or Famine methods can deliver some great regular season results.

          2. The Playoffs are now a different animal. A team can get hot and win. We saw the Phillies, who were not a great team, get hot at the right time and “almost” win last year.

          You can’t compare the two.

  20. 10:10 PM ET

    Rockies (2-3)
    Dodgers (3-2)

    SPGerman Marquez R
    1-0 3.00 ERA 6IP %K
    SP Julio Urias L
    1-0 3.00 ERA 6IP 6K

    Confirmed Lineup
    2B Mookie Betts R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    3B Max Muncy L
    DH J. Martinez R
    LF D. Peralta L
    CF James Outman L
    SS Chris Taylor R
    RF J. Heyward L

    Clear-day
    0% None
    59° Wind 17 mph L-R

    1. Miguel Vargas, who got hit by a pitch in Monday’s game but remained in to finish it, is out of the lineup. We don’t know if this is due to injury, or just to get a day off, as he was able to stay in yesterday’s game. He could just be a little extra sore today.

    2. David Vassegh
      @THEREAL_DV

      Miguel Rojas felt something in his left groin when turning a DP on Sunday. #Dodgers being cautious with Rojas with off day tomorrow. He could play through it if necessary.

  21. Diego Cartaya, the Dodgers top prospect, will begin the 2023 season in Double-A Tulsa, one of five players on the Dodgers’ 40-man roster to open the year with the Drillers.

    Other Dodgers on the 40-man roster who open this season in Tulsa are infielders Jorbit Vivas and Eddys Leonard — who both played at Great Lakes all last season and are entering their second season on the 40-man roster — plus outfielders Andy Pages and Jonny DeLuca, who ended last season in Double-A.

    Pitchers Nick Frasso and River Ryan, both acquired by the Dodgers last season in trades, plus 2021 sixth-round draft pick Emmet Sheehan all were named on at least one national Dodgers top-10 team prospect list, and open the year in Tulsa. Frasso and Sheehan pitched for the Drillres last year, while Ryan pitched with Great Lakes.

    Ben Harris, another 2021 draft pick who struck out 45 percent of batters faced last year across both Class-A levels but also walked 15.5 percent, joins Tulsa after ending last year in Great Lakes. Same trajectory for outielder Jose Ramos, who played for Panama this spring during the World Baseball Classic.

  22. Poor Edwin Uceta must feel like a ping pong ball. DFA’d last week and picked up by the Pirates, he was DFA’d again today. Lets hope tonight is one of those famine games. I won’t be watching, heading out to Tarzana to play some music.

  23. This is what Tulsa’s roster could look like:

    C – Diego Cartaya
    1B – Brandon Lewis
    2B – Jorbit Vivas
    SS – Eddys Leonard
    3B – Kody Hoese (one more try)
    LF – Jose Ramos
    CF – Jonny DeLuca
    RF – Andy Pages

    Subs: Imanol Vargas, Yusneil Diaz, Carson Taylor

    Starting Pitchers:

    1. Emmett Sheehan
    2. Nick Frasso
    3. River Ryan
    4. Landon Knack
    5. John Rooney

    That should be a fun team to watch.

    1. None.

      I am also fine with not signing Anderson.

      You can’t predict when all these arms will arrive, so you have to stay flexible so as not to block them.

        1. Anderson got the qualifying offer of 1 year for $19 million, but opted for the security of a 3-year deal with the Angels for about $36 million. Off to a good start with the Halos.
          Dodgers have a bunch of ML-ready arms, and got a good deal with Syndergaard, who supposedly turned down bigger offers to work under Dodger coaches. At any rate, the Dodgers are really deep in pitching talent–so deep that I hope they make trades to upgrade the roster.
          Fun fact: Vargas not only has more walks than strikeouts right now, but more walks (9) than at bats (8). I wish MLB.com included a PA column (for plate appearances) in its stat report, Vargas’s walk rate now is somewhat flukish, but not totally, since he has always been known for his bat-to-ball skills. But if he keeps this up he has a chance to be one of those rare players who do walk more than the K. (Yoshida, the Red Sox rookie, is known for this.) And he could earn a promotion toward the top of the lineup.
          Scary moment in today’s game when Heyward and Betts collided. Nice to see Betts running well later.

  30. The Rockies top of the 3RD inning is why the Three True Outcome approach has so much resonance today.

  31. Maybe that Big Fly will get Muncy to relax and just play. He looks like he is wound too tight.

      1. Strange that they move Outman to LF. I’m not complaining because he’s still playing but it seems strange.

        1. Thompson is as good a CFer as Outman… at least in my opinion.

          It’s also seniority!

          1. That’s reasonable since it’s just defense and you’re not taking him out of the game just moving him

  34. It’s looking a bit embarrassing for Max at third! Ouch! Average seems a long ways away

  37. I think Max is/was pressing at bat and in the field. I think he will be just fine. Give it time. Like another 30 games.

    But right about now, he can’t catch a break!

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