I was traveling to San Francisco yesterday, so I was pretty out of the mix, although I did watch most of the game yesterday. I overdid it big time with my back – so much so that I am not able to fly to LA tomorrow. I walked over 5 miles and paid for it last night. It is slightly better today, but I am going to have to get a wheelchair at the airport. At any rate, I read through the comments last night and had to laugh. In 20 years of doing this, I have noticed that the naysayers come out early in the season to make their annual predictions of how horrid the Dodgers are going to be and then disappear, except for a few “drive-by shootings” such as when they have a losing streak.
And every year, they win close to 100 games and win the division, and the naysayers repeat it again the next season. I have concluded that many have had a nerve in their eye intersect with a nerve in their a$$, and it results in Optic-Rectumitis (which is pretty much a shitty outlook on life)! That’s just how they do life, and if it works for them… great! Me? I prefer not to make myself and others miserable with wild imaginings!
Let me address whether Mookie Betts is a “superstar” first. I use a lot of metrics and the “good ole’ eye test” in determining that, but I put a tremendous amount of weight into OPS. If a player has a career OPS of over 1.000, he is a Superstar… PERIOD! Mookie’s career OPS is .888. Not a superstar! He is an All-Star PERIOD! He was close to a superstar at one point, OPS’ing over .900 from 2018 until 2020. To me, he is a candidate to “bounce back” to a .900 OPS this season, but if he is .875, he is no chump.
Freddie Freeman has a career OPS of .895. He is a perennial All-Star… or close. He has OPS’ed over .900 in five of his years and has been close four other times. He was at .918 last year and could better that this season. JD Martinez has a .872 OPS in his career… again an above-average player, but not a superstar. He has OPs’ed over .900 in six of his 12 years, including OPS of over 1.000 in 4 straight years. I look for him to be close to his career average this season… maybe better. Hopefully, Betts and RVS, and JD can all push each other.
The Dodgers have another “Close-to a Star Player,” and that is Max Muncy, who has a career OPS of .828. That is remarkable when you consider that last season, when he had a .713 OPS, and his first two years were at .650 and .565. He has had three years with an OPS of over .889. He will be back with a vengeance this year to earn another year with the Dodgers, and those of you who think his defense is a detriment have no idea about the content of his character. Max will work his butt off to become a solid third baseman. You may not believe it now… but you will thank me later. Let him play!
There is yet another player who has an OPS of “Close to a Star“, and that is Will Smith, with a career OPS of .856. Look for him to assert his position as an All-Star and OPS at near .900 this season. Here’s one that may surprise you: David Peralta has a career OPS of .798, but against RHP, he has a career OPS of .836. If you wonder why the Dodgers signed him, look no further than that. If you have a 6th or 7th hitter who can OPS .800, you have something! I think a lot of fans will be surprised (pleasantly) by David Peralta. He is a solid player. Miguel Rojas has a career OPS of .672 but has OPS’ed above .710 in four of his nine years. I think he has one good year left under RVS and is re-energized by being a leader on a winning team.
Gavin Lux OPS’ed .745 and was praised by most Dodger fans as being awesome, yet one fan who liked Lux at #9 said Rojas was a “shitty player,” leading me to go off on him. What if Rojas OPSes close to what Lux did? Now what? Miguel Vargas has a career minor-league OPS of .858 with a BA of .306. Corey Seager had a career OPS of .891 with a BA of .307. I think you will see Miguel Vargas put up similar stats to Seagers’ Rookie Year with an OPS of over .800. But, if you live by “sight,” which is what the stats tell you, you will disagree. Sight is the “past” – I live by “Vision,” which is today and tomorrow. Yes, sometimes history repeats itself… and sometimes the players grow into stars… and progress is not linear!
BTW: Looks at these OPS:
- Ohtani – .875 (his value as a hitter only)
- Trout – 1.002 – A True Superstar
The Roster is pretty well set. On Opening Day, this will likely be the alignment:
- Catcher – Smith
- 1B – Freeman
- 2B – Rookie of the Year – Vargas
- SS – Rojas
- 3B – Muncy
- LF – Peralta
- CF – Outman (he deserves the start against a RHP)
- RF – Betts
- P- Urias
That’s a good team that could be great, depending on CT3, Thompson, and Heyward. What if Outman makes himself into a ROY candidate too? I would not bet against him. To those of you who think the Padres are “The Class of the Division,” all I will say is “Watch and learn.” Character counts!
With the expanded playoffs, the best team does not always win. A Bike Guy said it best:
I think with the expanded playoffs structure, I don’t know that there really is such a thing “good enough to make the playoffs every year but not good enough to win.” At this point, anyone can get hot in the playoffs and it almost doesn’t matter what your record was in the regular season.
— Dodgerpatch
Finally, if some players get off to a slow start and the Dodgers are not performing, they will tap the Farm System for players or trade some. Just about every publication has them as the #1 or #2 Farm System. It’s that simple, but the trades are not coming now, and you cannot trade garbage for stars… I laugh my ass off at how some commenters try to trade players they do not like or think will be bad, for superstars. “Give me your best players, and I will send you junk!” Yeah, Right! How on earth are you going to trade CT3, Thompson, or Heyward? You could cut them now, and no one may take them.
I am very optimistic about the season!
Very true what Dodgerpatch says. No doubt about it. You only have to get in to win it all. We have seen it many times before.
You can win the WS as a WC team though the path is easier as a division champion.
IMHO the Dodgers will not win the West this season. I believe the Padres will win the division as I see the Dodgers at 90-92 wins with the current roster. Trade deadline might change that but as of now that is what I see .
However the Dodgers 2023 team is probably the best roster as far as pitching goes. Rotation and bullpen look excellent and deep. And as we all know pitching is the name of the game , especially in postseason play.
Good pitching will beat good hitting more often than none. This current team looks more like the old fashinoed Dodgers team of the 60 and 70. Based on great pitching, winning many low scoring and close games. Not the offensive juggernaut of the last 5-6 years.
Let the games begin!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
3:05 PM ET vs Royals at Glendale
Zack Greinke R
0-1 8.74ERA 11.1IP 11K
Dustin May R
2-1 2.13ERA 12.2IP 16K
Confirmed Lineup
RF J. Heyward L
CF James Outman L
C Will Smith R
DH S. Duggar L
SS L. Williams R
2B M. Busch L
3B Y. Hernandez S
LF B. Zimmer L
1B Devin Mann R
Clear-day
0% Rain
61° Wind 5 mph Out
Mark: First of all, so sorry you are dealing with the back. Secondly, I couldn’t agree more. As I said in a previous post, I do believe this is a 100+ team and here is why:
1. Betts. Freeman, and Smith should give us numbers equal to or better than (Smith) what they achieved in 2022.
2. Muncy should get much better numbers than 2022. I did think it was somewhat comical when one poster said in effect that Muncy was done and within 2 hours of that comment, he hit a home run which at that moment brought his spring OPS over 900.
3. I believe any combination of Outman/Thompson/Heyward will get better numbers than Bellinger.
4. Replacing JT with JDM should be a wash, at worst.
5. I think Vargas will get numbers equal to or better than Lux (2nd base).
6. That only leaves Rojas vs T Turner and that obviously is a step back offensively but a really good improvement defensively.
7. I think May will have a great bounce back season, which should replace Anderson’s numbers. Thor will be better than Heney. It will be tough for Gonsolin to repeat his 2022 season but he (and Pepiot and any others called up) should come close. Therefore, the rotation should be equal to or better than 2022’s.
8. The bullpen should also be as good, if not better than 2022’s.
So, the offense should be close to 2022’s. The pitching should be equal to or better than 2022’s.
Obviously, 111 wins is an all world season. As pointed out in a previous post, the schedule will be harder this year. Taking that and 111 wins being so difficult to accomplish makes me feel that 11 wins less than last year is doable.
You could definitely call me a half full glass person. I do choose to look at life that way. I also have a great deal of faith in our organization to do whatever it takes.
Is there no consideration to defense in your rating scale? Mookie has certainly been a superstar defender in his career.
OPS is an Offensive Number only.
WAR takes into consideration Defense as well.
With WAR, Betts is closer to Trout.
However, most Superstars are because of their bats, not their gloves.
Good stuff Mark, watch the back buddy. A lot of info to absorb. Although Mookie has not had a great spring at Camelback, he did have 10 hits, tying for the most on the team, in the WBC. He is close to ready. Muncy looked like his old self yesterday, a long homer to center and then a long double off of the left-center field fence, Martinez crushed one too.
Coming off of the bat, those were two of the loudest sounds I have heard all spring. Julio’s big bugaboo, homers, cost him again yesterday. He did go 5 innings but was not at all impressive. He had better pitch much better opening night.
Taylor continues to miss pitches. He is about as out of whack as a player can be.
Some of the players headed to LA last night. It will be mostly kids in todays getaway game which starts an hour earlier at 12:05 LA time. Tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday they have the Angels. Then opening day on Thursday
A couple of notes about division rivals. The Giants have two three outfielders out. Rodriguez for at least 3 months if not more. Mitch Haniger and Austin Slater are both still sidelined and probably will begin the year on the IL. Alex Cobb is still feeling the effects of getting hit on the knee by a drive off of the bat of Miguel Vargas and may open the season on the IL.
San Diego is going to start the season without Tatis, 20 more days on his suspension, Musgrove and Morejon. Soto has a slight oblique strain and might not be ready by opening day. Austin Nola had his nose broke, so his availability for opening day is also in question.
The Rockies will be without star second baseman, Brendan Rogers for the entire season. Otherwise the Rocks seem to be in good shape. Carson Kelly of the D-Backs will be out for a while with a broken arm.
As for how the Dodgers will fare this year, I think they will be better than some think, but not as good as some hope. This is not last year’s 111-win team. I think the first three starters are good enough to win in double figures. Thor is a wild card, but if he pitches like he did early in spring training, pounding the strike zone and not walking hitters, he will be fine.
You do not need to throw 100 miles an hour all the time to win in the majors. If he can sit at 94-96 most of the time, I believe he will do well. Pepiot has some time to show his wares. Gonsolin will probably be on he IL for at least the first month of the season if not longer. All he needs to do is cut down the walks.
The bullpen should be fine. I kind of like not having a set closer. I think Phillips is more than capable of handling that. And Graterol is getting close to being a lock down guy. Ferguson and Vesia are more than capable from the left side. The only real question mark I see is Miller. He has not looked all that great this spring, but he is going to make the roster.
As far as the offense, there are five guys I have total faith in, Mookie, Freeman, Smith, Martinez and Muncy. I look for Peralta to have better numbers as he is healthy this year and the banning of the shift. Rojas will be Rojas and probably hit close to his career numbers. Same with Barnes. We do not know what we will get out of our two rookies on the roster, but we hope for good numbers and some consistency. That leaves, Heyward, Taylor and Thompson. Of the three, Heyward has had the best spring numbers. Thompson has not looked sharp at the plate, but at least the last couple of games I have watched, he is at least making contact. He had a long double to right yesterday.
Taylor is totally out of whack, and I have not see a single thing that makes me think he is going to turn it around anytime soon. I relegate him to playing against Lefty’s only. And he has not even hit them. His confidence is totally shot. He is a 15 million dollar anchor.
Interesting take Mark. By your chart there have only been 11 Superstars in the history of baseball. If you go to .950 you get 23. If you were to go by WAR leaders, over 100 WAR gives you 32. In my opinion a star is someone people pay to see. I’d have to give that more thought. Right off the top of my head I’d say Ohtani, Trout, Kershaw, Judge.
As for what patch had to say there the only thing I’d take issue with is it does indeed matter what your regular season record is. Ask Tigers, Pirates and Angels fans about that.
Dodgers with 2 players listed in ten best now in Betts and Freeman. Does that make them superstars based on current peer status?
What do you think about this statement: “Barrel rate is more predictive of future power than any other single power stat — probably because it’s actually launch angle and exit velocity wrapped into one stat, meaning it’s not really one stat,” — taken from the Athletic
“Barrels are overrated!” – Justin Turner
Only after he gets a hit on a doink.
The Athletic is right in my estimation. A hitters job is barrel strikes. A pitchers job is to throw strikes and miss barrels.
Who would be a superstar based on barrel rate?
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast?type=batter&year=2022&position=&team=&min=q&sort=16&sortDir=desc
I actually think it is a very useful stat.
I have been thinking about combining a few stats together to form one “superstar”, such as
OPS
WAR
BBLS
OPS+
Etc.
That’s for a rainy day!
Add b.i.s. to your algorithm
“I found that some of the biggest names of the last decade have been associated with thousands of extra tickets sold.” Robert Arthur, Baseball Prospectus.
Some use above .900 as Superstar Status.
If you have to think about whether a player is a superstar or not, they aren’t . Betts is not the superstar the Dodgers are paying for. The bar for superstar status is much lower today than it has been in the past. When I think superstar, I think, Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Williams, Musial, Frank Robinson, and Clemente type players. Todays game has nothing close to those true superstars. Ohtani might be in there only because he can also pitch.
I am convinced that Mays, Mantle, Aaron, Williams, Musial, Frank Robinson, and Clemente would be stars today, but I believe that their stats would suffer. They did not have to face 100 MPH pitchers and spin rates like today, as well as scouting and analytics. .. to say nothing of how well-conditioned pitchers are.
Reds released Hunter Strickland. Familia and Bundy get new teams.
Some fans are content with winning record that makes playoffs relying on a lucky crapshoot, not I, only a championship by having the best team does it for me and please don’t mention the 88 team they had Orel
… and they were not the best team – they were the team that won it!
Let me ask you: Do you think they would have won it if there were three more rounds in the playoffs?
The two teams I am rooting for this year to get to the world series. I do this every year pick an American league team and national league team and root for them to meet in world series. They of course are the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. Seattle reminds me of the old Oakland As team they could be down five runs in the seventh inning and then end up winning the game in extra innings. There a scrappy team. I root for the Dodgers because I bleed Dodger blue. I just wish they would get that attitude back like never out of it. And it showed in playoffs last year when they got down to the Padres like we’re done. They need that scrappy ness back like Sax gave them Gibson or Heeshiser it’s not over until three outs in ninth. The one player that plays like that is Freddie Freeman. And thank God we got him or we would be in a world of hurts this year. We all need to pray each day. That Freeman doesn’t get run down or hurt he is the MVP.
I love the Dodgers and watching them play. I don’t get into the weeds at the level of detail many do but I enjoy the reading of these tidbits!
So, when I make a prediction, who cares! So, I predict 97 wins in the regular season this year and a playoff bid. Let’s hope they are hot at the end this year!
300 mil is superstar in my book, especially if you’re not one!
Mark
Best of luck with your upcoming surgery. I hope can get relief from your pain and be back in the game in no time. My thoughts are with you.
Thank you, PJ. Hope you are well.
I’m adding my positive thoughts into the ether and am visualizing them floating your way where they can float above you and be part of the many other healing thoughts heading your way from those so inclined here at LADodgerTalk.
TY Bums – The Surgery is on April 24th.
Well yes I think if Orel continued his dominance their chances would still be pretty good. It’s like two automatic wins in any series and I do try to stay on the yea sayer side but I admit the nay sayer’s ended up right last year. Year before. From 1989 till 2019. Of course can’t count 17 cause my own personal opinion is anything less then a ring is not considered a successful season and at this point I don’t see it happening this year but I’d sure love to be proven wrong and I’d never give up hope. Also believe if had a pitcher pitching as great as Orel did in 88 our chances this year would skyrocket. I to wish the best on your back situation Mark. Heath is so important I just went though Covid deal that kicked my ass
I know COVID – I had it four times, but the second time really kicked my ass. Ended up in the hospital. I was out of work for over 3 months, and I just sit at a desk… like a stiff!
Many a World Series has been won on the backs of completely dominate starters. Bumgarner’s giants. Strasberg’s nats come to mind but of course got to have a group hitters that can hit good pitching to and good D. A good pen. Hunger helps a great deal I think. 88 team was hungry. There was plenty of hunger in 20 to
The team built to win in October with the right intangibles no matter the playoff format that wins it all is the best team. They went out and proved it. The game is played on the field not some statistical piece of paper. Of course there’s luck involved in any sport but if banking on luck all I can say is well good luck. The 88 team was by far not the best team on paper but when it mattered most than went out and proved they were
Yeah I’d rather just get punched in the face a bunch of times than to experience Covid again
I’d rather debate the vague meaning of superstar with the fine folks at LADT.
I’m in!
Sheff had the quickest hands I’ve ever seen. Whipped that bat.
https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRvmMB2M/
Absolutely!
Mark –
Best wishes with your spinal surgery! I have had two in the last three years; one for lumbar problems and another for nerves running through the spimal column being in contact with bones causing constant pain in both legs. I am in physical rehab now walking 2 miles and doing two sets of 20 lower body exercises four times per week. I am cautiously optimistic about my mobility prognosis for the future.
From my experience, I recommend you work with an in-home physical therapist with specific experience in spinal rehab to customize a rehab program for you. Second, document your post operation rehab progress because it will take time and you need to closely monitor your progress to maintain a positive mindset. Third, eatablish realistic expectations about your future pain/mobility thresholds; for example, I am 76 years old and have to accept the fact that my future mobility will not be the same as it was at 65 – so I have established a six-month rehab program focused on establishing a “new norm” for me to accept. Fourth, one’s spinal column affects the whole body from head-to-toe in multiple ways which leaves to door open for future spinal procedures for me.
Just wanted to share my experience over the past 5-6 years in dealing with spinal pain and all its physical implications. I also want to thank you for LADT because it help sustain me mentality at a time when I isolated myself because of the constant pain. Again, best wishes for a successful procedure and rehabilitation!
P.S. I am really excited to see the new Dodger talent perform in 2023!!
Thank you very much!
Tom is talking to me as well. No surgery scheduled yet, but much feels like it’s heading that direction. Back injuries are mood destroyers. There is no escaping the discomfort.
Hey, Mark….Thanks for proving my point!
Your metric for “superstar” requires a 1.000 career OPS, right? You’ve even constructed a grid based on this crude mathematical formula. And it seems that only Trout qualifies–and just barely.
Idiot!
The point of mine thatyou proved is that, in the baseball world according to Mark, fielding doesn’t matter. Even Stevie Wonder can see that.
Do you wonder why Ozzie Smith is in the HOF and my 8th grade football teammate Garry Templeton isn’t? By your reckoning, Mookie’s six Gold Gloves mean nada. The game-saving web gems and perfect throws can all be ignored. For that matter, Clemente’s arm can be ignored, as well as Brooks Robinson’s play at 3B. Because who cares about fielding?
If you want a serious statistical analysis, check out the Foolish Baseball guy on YouTube. It’s not hard to compare eras–but we can compare players to their peers in their respective era.
In the year 2000, for example, Pedro Martinez had one of the greatest seasons by any pitcher ever. As one analyst explained: “It’s not debatable. That year he went 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA in a year where the American League average ERA was 5.07 (a clear impact of the steroid boom).”
A boring statistical analysis also ignores a player’s charisma, or star appeal. The “it” factor, or what the French call je’ ne sais quoi. Puig arrived with a boatload of the stuff and unfortunately squandered his talent. Arozarena flexed his in the WBC. Mookie, at 5-9 and about 175 pounds, is a normal-sized human with great personal flair, not unlike Willie “Say Hey” Mays. Trout is often compared to Mantle–but he couldn’t match Mantle’s star appeal. It’s just not who he is. The Babe was an awesome talent, but also a star who reveled in his fame.
Ultimately these are subject judgments that can’t be reduced to statistics.
Period!
Or is that just a decimal point?
Whatever
Opinions are like…
So, I was in Mill Valley (outside San Francisco) today at my wife’s niece’s wedding and one of her maids of honor was with this guy who happens to be a huge Dodger fan: Jorge Lopez.
Gangster
Two of them.
Mill Valley huh? Having lived near that area, Napa and Petaluma, I’m familiar with Mill Valley.
Love Mill Valley.
Wish I could move there.
Random thoughts not worth beans:
Bullish on:
Busch just needing a chance.
Shelby Miller rounding into form.
Caleb Ferguson being pretty close to pre-surgery form.
Kinda bullish on:
Mark Washington and that lefty Julian Smith as under the radar pitching prospects.
Duggar maybe rounding into form.
Old friend Wong being the Red Sox backup catcher
Old friend Varlamd doing well in Milwaukee
Bearish on:
Chris Taylor. That swing is dreadful right now.
Flying to LA on Tuesday. My plane lands at LAX at 7:50 at night. Leaving out of Colorado Springs.
We’ll we’re almost to opening day! Still very anxious about our lineup, it could be very good. It pull be average. It could be mediocre. I don’t think anyone can say for sure how many games we win, but it ain’t gonna be 111! With a bounce back year from max and a solid season from Vargas and Rojas the infield will be just fine. The outfield is a whole different story. Mookie will be an all star. Center could be ok if outman produces, left might be ok if peralta takes off. My biggest concern with the outfield is doc. He loves platoons as much as any manager in the game, just don’t like so much switching around all the time. Besides, with the way Taylor and Thompson have swung it in spring training, oh boy! Fans behind home plate better bring a sweater, be a lot of air back there from all the swing and misses! Go Dodgers!
You’re not my real dad!
1. Doc is not the source of platoons – It is Friedman, so don’t blame Doc for that!
2. I am willing to bet that this team strikes out less than last year!
I’m tempted to take that bet, but then I might find myself looking for strikeouts. There will be plenty, but I hope the team OPS remains high.
Dodgers get off to so -so start. Fans start predicting doom and gloom. Fire Roberts reaches a fevered pitch. Dodgers rally over last 4 months to finish with 98 wins.