You know the rest, but in case you forgot: It’s how they finish! Sometimes we get caught up in the hype, and we believe that small samplings mean something when in reality, they mean nothing. A lot of you have criticized me because while you believed that James Outman was the second coming, I believed that his fantastic start (in 13 ABs) was more like “Lucky.” And while I am mentioning all this, some of the same people ridiculed the fact that I was high on Miguel Vargas and somehow was a moron because James Outman was obviously better. Remember that? I do…
First, I have to admit that even as long as I have been doing this, I got caught up in it as well. Back on March 5th, I wrote this: James Outman on Track to Make the Squad, and then a few days later, on March 15th, I wrote James Hitman is Forcing the Dodgers’ Hand. I knew better but succumbed to “peer pressure” and fell under the spell that when you do really well in the beginning, you must be all that! As I write this, James Outman’s batting average has dropped to .310 with an OB% of .400 and an OPS of 1.021 (and could drop even more – that is on him), while Miguel Vargas’s BA is up to .292, with an OB% of .452 and he is OPS’ing .994.
I asked a “friend” in the vicinity of Arizona about it, and he said, “It’s simple – they have figured out Outman (see what he did there?), and Vargas is figuring them out.” There is still a week and a half left in Spring Training, and I am going to retract that James Outman has to make the team. It’s up to him to earn it. Honestly, I hope Outman rebounds and makes it. I like the kid a lot!
But, don’t get caught up in the hype. I’m from Missouri – you have to show me! … and so we wait and see! Thompson, Heyward, and Outman are all in the running. Outman has not won anything! Real baseball professionals know that small samplings mean very little. It’s a long season, and there will be ups and downs – You may start out blazing and flame out, or you could start out slow and get blazing hot (that is actually preferred).
I really hope that James Outman wins a job and breaks with the team. He can play all three outfield positions and play them well. Lately, he has cooled off, but with another hot streak, and he is on the team (I think). If not, he will be back at some point this season.
We are beginning to see what value Miguel Vargas brings both on the basepaths, in the field, and at the plate. He is actually growing into his power – which is a lot more than many of you think. He may not hit 30 HR in his Rookie Year, but he is a 30+ HR player. Yesterday he did this:
JD Martinez was not doing well until yesterday when he hit a 3-Run HR and a 2-Run Double, so I still have hope for Chris Taylor, but CT3 sits at .091 with 14 strikeouts in 33 ABs. While Jason Heyward is a little better at .222, he looks nearly as bad. Trayce Thompson walked twice in his return from the WBC, but he is hitting .097. If you added CT3’s BA and Trayce’s BA, you would still have a player below the Mendoza Line. They had better step it up. It’s getting late early!
Neither Taylor, Heyward or Thompson is hitting well. Peralta is still a question mark. It seems to me one of them has to go, 3 of them are lefty, so imo Thompson is the odd man out. Could they trade him for a low level prospect ?
If you were the GM of another team, would you trade for a guy hitting .067? I’d just wait for him to be released.
Taylor & Peralta are on the team. Trayce is an extra OF. Heyward is trying to make the team and has the advantage of “veteran presence.”
I think if any trade is made it’s for an impact starting OF, not another platoon-type talent.
Is that the right video for Vargas’ HR?
No – good catch. It came up first on twitter, and it looked the same. Sorry. I’ll try to find the right one, but if I don’t this is a mirror image of the one last night.
No worries. Just saw it elsewhere. Was a nice swing. Heyward’s double looked good too. Kinda had the Outman swing on it
Heyward’s swing looks soooo slowwww, not anything like what I’ve seen from Outman.
More just the short follow-through.
I sympathize with CT3 and Jason Heyward. When your swing gets out of whack for a long period of time, it’s hard to fix. In Max Muncy’s case, they identified what the problem was a couple of months before he was able to fix it. Cody Bellinger is still not “fixed,” neither is Heyward, and the same with Taylor. It’s a difficult process and sometimes, it never gets “fixed.”
Max Muncy appears to be on the right path and is OPS’ing .900 this spring, but his strikeouts are a little high. I think when the season ends, he will be one of the TOP 10 Third-Basemen in baseball. JDM is trending up!
I wonder whether Miguel Vargas should bat near the top of the order rather than near the bottom due to his OB skills?
Now that you mention Hitman I realize in two weeks of ST I’ve yet to see him get a hit or walk. Omen?
Mark
I hate to do this to you Mark but you contradicted yourself and took my words wrong.
Contradicted:
“We believe that small samplings mean something when in reality, they mean nothing. Real baseball professionals know that small samplings mean very little. As I write this, James Outman’s batting average has dropped to .310 with an OB% of .400 and an OPS of 1.021 (and could drop even more – that is on him), while Miguel Vargas’s BA is up to .292, with an OB% of .452 and he is OPS’ing .994.”
I believe that’s contradiction.
Taking my words wrong:
“A lot of you have criticized me because while you believed that James Outman was the second coming, I believed that his fantastic start (in 13 ABs) was more like “Lucky.” And while I am mentioning all this, some of the same people ridiculed the fact that I was high on Miguel Vargas and somehow was a moron because James Outman was obviously better. Remember that? I do…”
1) I never said Outman was the second coming. Maybe your words about Vargas = same thing.
2) I didn’t say you were a moron for being high on Vargas nor a moron because Outman is better. And I didn’t say Outman is better.
3) I’ve said this a million times and I don’t know why I have to say it again. I “ridiculed you” for touting Vargas and dismissing Outman.
Something else:
“But, don’t get caught up in the hype. I’m from Missouri – you have to show me!”
So says the one that thinks stats aren’t so important (while mentioning stats above) instead the so called experts/scouts and my eyes know it all. How is that show me?
I apologize for this but…..
What makes you think I was talking about you?
There are lots of people on this blog…
I figured it was me because I’m the biggest cheerleader for Outman.
Mark, I’d say that anyone calling you “moron” is simply giving you a taste of your own rude medicine.
Often you deliver gratuitous insults. You have the air of someone convinced of their own wisdom… even while you argue the Lux is the Dodgers’ centerfielder of the future.
Anyway, I was taught that anyone who dishes it out should be able to take it.
I’ve never called anyone a moron for being high on anyone. And while there’s been a small sample size to judge Outman’s performance to say he’s been figured out is of a much smaller sampling. At any rate I hope he gets the chance to prove his skills and I’ll keep my fingers Xed as I can see he has that something however it plays out.
The Dodgers have a CT3 problem. He is totally lost at the plate, which means he and the hitting gurus have not figured out his problem yet. But it is quite obvious. He can’t make contact, when he does, it is not hard contact. He is swinging at pitches that are so obviously unhittable that it is extremely frustrating to watch. At this point he should not even be in the lineup. But with players away at the WBC, the MLB level players to replace him are few. It hasn’t affected his glove any, but you can see the frustration building with each at bat. He at this point in time has no trade value whatsoever. Usually, one does not worry about spring stats for veterans. But considering the season he had last year, I see a huge cause for concern. Roberts was quoted as saying CT3 is totally out of whack. I would bet at this point in time, the Cubs are wondering if signing Bellinger for 17.5 million was a very smart move. One player they signed who is having a good spring? Trey Mancini. Max has looked a lot better lately at the plate and is hitting some balls really hard. He scorched that double to right yesterday. Heyward even had a couple of nice at bats. The ump yesterday did rob Outman a couple of times. Both of his K’s were called on pitches that were not strikes. Pepiot pulled from the game for stiffness in his side. Let’s hope it is not another oblique injury. There have been a lot of them this spring.
“The ump yesterday did rob Outman a couple of times. Both of his K’s were called on pitches that were not strikes.”
You saw that too. Thanks for catching that and mentioning that. I was going to mention it but…….
“The ump yesterday did rob Outman a couple of times. Both of his K’s were called on pitches that were not strikes. “ That is a fact, which is why small samplings are dangerous. Sometimes you are lucky and sometimes you are unlucky.
Sometimes you don’t get what you deserve… but it usually evens out.
Very true about key players absent from the lineup. There can be such a difference of how one player impacts a whole lineup. Hitting is catchy and the real reason we were eliminated last season.
Yesterday, Tim Neverett and Rick Monday we’re talking about Chris Taylor. I don’t remember all the particulars, but one of them mentioned a stat that said, Taylor was NOT chasing pitches out of the zone. He’s swinging and missing pitches that are in the zone.
ISo that tells me that’s worse than being lost. It’s not pitch recognition he just can’t make contact.
We’ve all seen players look terrible, and then all of a sudden turn it around. I hope this is true for Taylor, but I’m not counting on it
4:05 PM ET vs White Sox ( at Glendale as visitors)
SP Michael Grove R
0-0 .00 ERA
SP Michael Kopech R
0-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
CF J. Heyward L
DH F. Freeman L
LF T. Thompson R
RF James Outman L
3B Chris Taylor R
SS Miguel Rojas R
2B Y. Hernandez S
C H. Feduccia L
1B Devin Mann R
Partly-cloudy-day
0% Rain
66° Wind 7 mph L-R
I saw Kopech has a 0.00 ERA and wondered if he has been that good. It turns out he has pitched once for 3 innings. This is his second outing.
Of course you are doing it, you yourself re-read what you wrote to check it.
You have done it before, for example with Lux, he can play a perfect defense for weeks and one day he throws the ball badly and you write about yips again.
I don’t understand why to make your point about Vargas you have to demote Outman.
I do not favor demoting Outman, so do you want to rephrase your question?
The Dodgers will be much more fun to watch with Vargas and Outman starting and playing well.
I hope that is the case. Outman has shown me that he deserves a chance.
If it were up to me, this is the lineup I would field:
C – Smith (R)/Feduccia (L)
1B – Freeman (L)
2B – Vargas (R)
SS – Rojas (R)
3B – Muncy (L)
LF – Busch (L)/Pages (R)
CF – Outman (L)
RF – Betts (R)
DH – Martinez (R)
Bench: Hernandez (B), Thompson (R)
But that leaves Barnes, Taylor and Heyward in the wind.
For the record, I like most things AF does, I did not like the CT3 Re-signing… and said so at the time.
Winner Winner Chicken Dinner
The winner gets a chicken dinner? Is that a big deal?
Where’s Peralta Mark?
Venezuela
No, but platooning Pages with Busch is bold. I like bold. I used to like Knotts Berry Farm chicken.
But what about Peralta? He’s being paid $6.5 million. That’s a lot of money to pay someone to be replaced by an all rookie platoon.
I used to walk down the street from school and eat Knotts boysenberry pies. I ate a whole one once. Well, most of it anyway.
The last 2 games Outman went 0 for 6 and was robbed 2 times by the umpire. The game before that he went 1 for 3 with a double and the game before that 1 for 2 with a homer.
And for gods sake it’s spring training. What kind of pitchers are these guys hitting off of? Good, bad, both? Both is probably the answer. So you can’t compare hitters unless you dig.
One other note, Vargas’ stats are misleading. Simple reason is he was not allowed to swing at pitches for close to a week. So all of the strikeouts he had were because of the restriction. You take his stats since he started swinging the bat and they are pretty damn impressive. You take those 10 at bats away and Vargas is 7 for 14.
Badger said over on Jeff’s site that he was checking to see who JD hit his dinger off of . He said he searched the Sox site and they never heard of him. I told him that was probably because they were playing the Cubs, not the White Sox.
It was off Wesneski, who is the Cubs #5 Starter.
Yes I know, I was just enjoying ribbing Badger a little. He usually is sharper than that.
Badger has had severe brain damage, and there are photos that I may have been involved:
However, I had an MRI of my brain, and they could not find anything.
I have never said a thing about your 50 line paragraphs and one minor slip up and you expose me on two sites?
I’m gonna be watching you now Bear. Better be perfect buddy.
The point, which you clearly missed, is JD is OPS’n .596 against the Junior Varsity. I don’t expect much out of him but I do expect more than this.
Wait…. so Mark you ADMIT you assaulted me and contributed to the cognitive decline I am now experiencing.
I’m going to run this by my attorneys and see what they may have to say about it. Just a heads up, I’m willing to settle out of court. We can start with that beautiful motor home.
Huh, What?
My account was hacked.
I know nothing…
😉
Just having fun Badger.Ya rarely are wrong. I like long posts. Shows I am into what I am doing. My paragraphs may be a bit too much though.
Bear, it isn’t that your paragraphs are long. It’s that you combine paragraphs into one. You don’t do that when you put up the lead Post. Why?
Brain fart my friend. Sometimes I just keep writing and forget to put in the spaces. I will attempt to do better.
And there is enough room on the roster for all of Outman, Peralta, Heyward, Thompson, Taylor. This includes Vargas too. Unless the Dodgers want to carry another infielder or if a surprise happens like what Mark is talking about a couple posts up Busch and Pages make the team.
Busch and Pages will not make the team unless disaster strikes.
Exactly, although Busch was just starting to mash the ball.
Busch will continue to bash. But it will not get him a promotion on this team
I agree with Mark on one huge point. I would love to see Feduccia as the backup catcher. The idea of having a left hitting catcher has always appealed to me and this kid would be more than happy to fill that role. And he is hitting well over .400 this spring and leads the team in RBI’s.
Again, it is a short sampling, but Feduccia is 25 and has been around for a long time. I think it’s his time.
Still, Barnsie is a solid Dodger.
Barnes is streaky. He hit well enough to send Grandal to the bench in I think it was 2017. He played every post season game that year. And he had maybe the most important hit in the 2020 series. His single knocked Snell out of the game when he was dominating the Dodger hitters. Mookie then doubled to tie the score.
Grandal’s mit was a big part of his playoffs benching.
SO was his weak ass bat down the stretch. He was a double-play looking for a place to happen.
No love for Barnes?
He is Kershaw’s favorite catcher and under contract through (at least) 2024. Obviously the Dodgers believe in him….though they may want to trade him when Cartaya is ready. I am rooting for Feduccia but at this point it would take an injury for him to have a shot. (Better solution is to trade him.) Barnes has been a solid contributor ever since he arrived to backup Grandal. (Even when Doc had him pinch hit for Belli in that critical moment because the alternative was Vargas, Barnes hit the ball hard–it just didn’t find the gap.)
Teammates nicknamed Barnes “Captain” last year, which I take to be a sign of respect–and now he’s playing well for Team Mexico.
When we think about problems on this Dodger roster, catcher simply isn’t one of them.
I would like to see Feduccia on the Dodger’s bench to start the season and take a spot on the 26 away from one of Heyward or Taylor. Three catchers is a good thing.
It would really be helpful if Feduccia could play a secondary position other than catcher, like first base or left field. That would make him more valuable here or wherever he might eventually be traded.
Maybe they’ll give him some reps at a second position this year in OKC.
Barnes can play 2B, but he never does.
No one plays their backup C at 2B unless it is something very out of the ordinary.
This is a ridiculous take.
It occurs to me that they are paying Taylor too much to keep him off the roster.
And maybe they are paying Heyward too little. With Chicago covering all but the minimum, well… such a deal!
On merit, based on last season and this spring, neither Taylor or Heyward should make the roster. But the Dodgers are financially invested in Taylor and perhaps emotionally invested in Heyward.
And either Outman or (I guess) Yonny will wind up getting screwed out of a roster spot.
I think Heyward is also getting a little more leeway because Freddie put in a good word for him with management.
It’s the dog days of spring training.
Especially for Junkyard Dogs!
Yency looked very vey good! It made my day.
Well Taylor finally got some hits and the second one was a long bomb on a hanging curveball. Freddie two hits and a walk. Outman Struck out twice and now has K’d in 4 of his last 6 at bats.
Joe Kelly is still one of the more entertaining pitchers to watch.
I love Joe Kelly. He’s a guy you would go to war with.
I like him too. Wouldn’t go to war with him. I’ll let the two of you go. I’ll stay here and protect the women. And the children too of course.
Never understood why people want Barnes at 2nd base. His bat doesn’t get any better there!
Good point. Maybe it’s because you just can’t have too many utility men.
Yeah, right…. Where is the eye-roll emoji when we need it?
As Eric has pointed out, nobody believed Outman was “the second coming”–or even another Babe Ruth, as Daniel Hudson jokingly suggested.
What we believed –and you didn’t–is that Outman wasn’t merely “lucky” but is rather a talented player who had proven himself and deserved a legitimate shot. You are of course free to ignorantly believe that he is Dodgers fourth best OF prospect, behind Busch, Pages, Ramos and DeLuca. But if you were to rank the Dodgers’ OF candidates right now , I assume you’d put Mookie first and Outman second or third. I can see an argument for Peralta, maybe. But Heyward? Trayce? Taylor? Or any of the five OF prospects you rate above Outman? What would be your starting OF?
And like Eric, I don’t recall anybody “ridiculing” Vargas while he was obviously overmatched during his 2022 debut. Hey, maybe he was just unlucky producing stats that were were worse than the dreadful numbers put up by Belli, Gallo and Taylor. He just wasn’t ready–and yet he was included on the playoff roster. When Doc needed a pinch-hitter for Belli, why didn’t he turn to the rookie with the vaunted bat-to-ball skills? Because he knew that Barnes was the better option. The good news is that Vargas now appears to be ready.
I agree that how you finish is more important than how you start. So why did AF have the Dodgers finishing the year with a bench that included the overmatched rookie and Gallo still mired in a slump? AF’s peers added productive players like Drury and Bader and others. AF got outplayed down the stretch.
Moving on….,
Speaking of the OF, why isn’t JDM getting more rep in LF? If Taylor doesn’t get his groove back, perhaps JDM could help solve the platoon problem. If JDM can be mediocre in LF–or even slightly below average– that might be good enough. If he played LF a bit, Will Smith could take over DH while Barnes catches. I hate to be pessimistic about Taylor, but his struggles are a real problem. JDM has boasted that he used to be a “silver glover” as a finalist some years back. The fact that he seems to be DH-only now has me thinking that his legs and arm just don’t work the way they used to.
And I’m still wondering why Dalton Rushing wasn’t invited to spring training.. There’s always a need for catchers…Is he injured?
As for Mark’s dream lineup, a platoon of Busch and Pages in LF is indeed bold. But Feduccia over Barnes at catcher? Bizarre. Barnes is a proven veteran receiver who has been playing well for Mexico in the WBC. I hope Feduccia gets traded to a team that needs a backup catcher.
I think AF still has a lot of work to do to fix this roster–and Feduccia could sweeten an offer for a quality UT guy.
Dalton Rushing didn’t play above single A in his first season in the org. Give him time.
Yes, no need to rush Rushing. But he’s 21, same as Cartaya, and he played at a top baseball factory. It’s not like he was drafted out of high school. He’s not a kid.
Plenty of catchers are in camp who have only the faintest of hopes of making the roster. If both Smith and Barnes go down with injuries, somebody might break through.
Anyway, I think there is value in giving Rushing a taste of catching ML pitchers on the backfield. Also value in showing him off to rivals. Blocked by Smith and Cartaya, he may end up being traded–though I really want to see him mash for the Dodgers.
Braves did the same thing in 21. They picked up Rosario, Pederson and Soler, and all three of those guys did damage in the playoffs. Especially Rosario who played out of his mind.
This thread is probably going to get closed soon but I’ll say this anyways.
I would put money on this. Outman will be the starting CF and the platoon of Peralta/Taylor will the starting LF.
There is nobody else but Taylor to platoon with the 3 guys (Peralta, Thompson, Heyward) that only hit RHP. Peralta is being paid the most out of those 3 guys. I think the Dodgers will give Outman his shot at hitting all pitchers and if he fails to hit LHP the Dodgers will make a move via trade or bring up DeLuca (check his stats vs LHP) to platoon with Peralta and move Taylor to CF to platoon with Outman.
I think Thompson and Heyward’s time with the Dodgers are numbered. I wouldn’t be surprised if both are gone fairly soon because the Dodgers still need someone on the bench that hits LHP good.
And the Dodgers might even need a better hitting starting SS or backup utility infielder.
Watch for a move for an outfielder and/or infielder and at least 1 that hits LHP good. And watch for DeLuca possibly.
Twitter went bat shit nuts about Trea hitting the grand slam last night to help the US beat Venezuela, which means Peralta will be back in camp. Most were jumping all over management for not re-signing him. That totally ignores the fact that he was NEVER going to re-sign with LA. He wanted to go back east, and that is exactly what happened.