Spring Training Can Mean Nothing… or Everything!

Posted By on February 25, 2023

How can that be? Does Spring Training mean everything, or does Spring Training means nothing? Well, it depends… and if you are a person who sees everything as black or white, you may never understand how those two opposing statements can embody what Spring Training is all about.

It seems like every year, some player comes out of “nowhere” and hits .350 or .400 in Spring Training and yet is sent back to minor league camp, while another hits .206 and makes the team. How does that happen? It happens because sometimes Spring Training means nothing, and other times it means everything!

If that sounds confusing, let me assure you that it is not! It can mean everything IF the player in question has a genuine reason why they should make it. A classic example is Jason Heyward. He will make the team this season because of the fact that he is a leader who is best friends with Freddie Freeman and has worked his ass off to become relevant again. It doesn’t mean that he will stay all season, but he has an opportunity.

On the other hand, James Outman could hit .400 with 6 HRs and 17 RBI and not make it. How does that even compute? I’ll give you an example. Back in the early 2000s, the Dodgers had a player named Mckay Christenson, who tore it up in Spring Training, hitting almost .400, but did not make the team. He hit over .300 in a limited number of at-bats that season and was never heard from again. It turns out that his inflated numbers in Spring Training came at the expense of average-to-below-average pitchers who threw “center-in-fastballs of 88 to 85 MPH. In other words, he was a great batting practice hitter.

I remember many years ago when Cincinnati Reds GM Jim Bowden cut a player who hit .350 in Spring Training. Marge Schott called him to task about it, but the guy only got hits off of pitchers who threw under 90 MPH with stuff right over the plate. That player never made it back to the Show. So, it doesn’t matter if you got a hit, as much as what kind of pitch you hit. The biggest difference between AAA and MLB is that every pitcher in MLB throws hard and has filthy stuff. At AAA, there are still a few stiffs, and some hitters punish mistakes! At the big league level, you see fewer “mistakes.”

Additionally, Spring Training is a small sampling. If a player gets ten hits in 50 at-bats, he is hitting .200, but if he gets ten more “lucky” hit, he is at .400, when in reality, he is really a .200 hitter. In a long season, it evens out, but in a short sampling, he can look unusually good or bad. Just about everyone is enamored with James Outman, because he got six hits, including a HR and two doubles in his first 13 at-bats, which is unsustainable even for Babe Ruth, but they ignore the seven strikeouts in the same number of ABs, which is alarming!

If James Outman makes the team, he will have to earn a spot – the same is true with Miguel Vargas or Mike Busch. Vargas can play his way off the team, which is why you like to see players get a lot of playing time. BABIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play)is a statistic that tells you how “lucky” a player is. For his career, Mookie is at .304, but his BABIP was .272 last year. He was somewhat unlucky. James Outman’s BABIP in MLB last year was 1.000. That is not skill – that is pure, blind, dumb luck! I am not taking anything away from James Outman, but he did strike out 54% of the time. On the other hand, Miguel Vargas, whose strikeout percentage is usually in the teens, struck out 32% of the time, while his BABIP was .206. In the small sampling of both players, you can really take away nothing from the small sampling.

Also, early in Spring Training, the pitchers are generally “ahead” of the hitters, so do not attach a lot of significance to what happens early. If a player strikes out four times today or hits 2 HRs, it means very little… except maybe to their confidence. You can have an “eye for talent” and still miss wildly. If you watched the Keith Law interview that Blutto posed yesterday, it was revealed that Keith Law (who has a good track record of identifying talent) called Gavin Lux “the next Mike Trout.” Not that Lux is not a good player, but I would say that he got that one wrong! When Adrian Beltre was still in the minors, I said he was a HOF player, but I also said that Andy LaRoche would be an All-Star. One out of two puts me at .500! 😉

You can watch a player hit a HR and be impressed, but here is where statistics are king: What was the pitch? Was it a wicked “fall off the table splitter at 96 MPH or a center-cut fastball at 89 MPH? You may not know all that, but the Dodger brass does. Choosing the roster is a collaborative effort and while Andrew Friedman is the final decision maker, there are lots of seasoned baseball people in the process:

  • Dave Roberts
  • The coaching staff
  • Brandon Gomes
  • Josh Byrnes
  • Jeffrey Kingston
  • Bill Gaspirino
  • Chase Utley (when he is around)
  • Pat Corrales
  • Ron Roenicke
  • Joel Peralta
  • Jose Vizcaino
  • David Hill (Research Scientist)
  • Craig Weinhaus & Sam Elias (Senior Analysts)

They all can play a role in helping determine who makes the squad. Sometimes it is very obvious. Other times, not so much! BTW, don’t make a big deal of Heyward playing CF in an intra-squad game. How else can they determine if he can still play there or not? Also, Thompson played CF as well yesterday… what does that mean? Maybe it means that Outman will play in today’s first official spring training game. Don’t attach a lot of significance to anything. This is just a shaking-out period. Due to the WBC, you are going o see a lot of certain players. Diego Cartaya will likely play a lot with Smith and Barnes at the WBC. I think Dalton Rushing and Andy Pages will also get a lot of PT… along with Mike Busch, Miguel Vargas, and James Outtman.

Unless Ouman plays outta’ his mind, I think he will start at AAA and allow Trayce Thompson to show what he can do. Jason Heyward is making the team, but the rookies will have their opportunity to play later. Today’s game is at 12:10 PT or 3:10 ET and should be on MLB.TV. Mike Grove starts for the Dodgers. Be there! PLAY BALL!

BTW: The photo is American Family Fields of Phoenix

Today’s Lineup

  1. Lux SS
  2. Freeman 1B
  3. JDM DH
  4. Peralta LF
  5. Smith C
  6. Outman CF
  7. Luke Williams 3B
  8. Steven Duggar RF
  9. Miguel Vargas 2B (I told you he would play)

This article has 38 Comments

  1. When was the last time a minor league player for the Dodgers was so good he played his way onto the team?

  2. Mark –

    Good article! While there are many knowledgeable baseball people on LADT who know a lot more about Dodger prospects than I do, spring training is my first opportunity for the “eye test,” No doubt I will find a prospect or two who I “really like” but who will never make it to the show. Thanks for providing insight as why I will never hear from them again.

    Most of all, spring training for me is an annual ritual that has been a part of my life for many decades now. So, I am ready to enjoy another baseball season along with following the varied insights of LADT posters. Thanks for all you and others do to keep LADT a part of my daily life!

    Play ball!!

    1. Thank you.

      Just thinking out loud, one of the reasons to bring in both Heyward and Peralta is the fact that Taylor could be needed in the IF if anything happens.

      Rojas is strictly a back-up to me, tasked with covering the entire infield.

      I hope someone takes a step forward and lays claim to LF or CF. Outman is not getting 500 ABs this season.

  4. Thought provoking take Mark.

    You too MP

    BAPIB. Interesting stat. I read the definition at fangraphs a while back and my first thought was, I wonder what batting average on balls not in play might be.

    Another thought I had was – if the Dodgers felt Outman had a future here, would they have signed the plethora of free agent veterans they did? My gut tells me they want Heyward in that spot, which also suggests to me the soon to be 26 year old Outman may do better somewhere else.

    Lux leading off. Guess they want to see if he can do there what he did in the 9 hole. (.280/.360/.415). He’s still only 25. Younger than Outman. There’s plenty of time to move him to clean up.

      1. I guessed that. I liked your previous question about BABNIP too. I had one of the highest one of those when I played well at least tied for it.

  7. I think for the first time in a long while, the Dodgers will find themselves in an underdog role. The odds makers may not see it that way, but their high ranking of the Dodgers has more to do with the upgrades the Dodgers are capable of making later in the season than the team being constructed in Spring training.

    I am cautiously optimistic about the season and I am telling myself to be patient, but my pessimistic side sees a lot of holes:
    – One solid, dependable pitcher (Julio) and a cadre of projects/question marks (Thor, May, CK, Pepiot)
    – An infield short on defense (we’re not winning a WS with Muncy at 3rd base)
    – An outfield dependent on bounce-back players (Trace, Heyward, Peralta)

    I think the Dodgers will struggle early in the season and it will be good for them. — i..e accelerating the process of finding their identity and making a move or two.

    The storylines this years are super interesting and I find myself more intrigued than usual to watch the young players develop, who steps up to be a leader, etc.

    Go Dodgers

    1. Interesting take 4-Gens. I’ve been thinking very much the same thing but have not stated it as clearly as you have.

    2. “I think the Dodgers will struggle early in the season and it will be good for them. — i..e accelerating the process of finding their identity and making a move or two.”

      Nice observation. Not only will they find their identity, if your projection comes to fruition, but having to struggle and initially fail will be good for their resilience and grit, which is what takes you through the playoffs.

      I think one problem is that it’s all come pretty easy for them the last few years. They can coast for the last month after clinching the division to rest up, but they were flat these past two years and didn’t rise to adversity.

  8. Well, you can have your own opinions but you can’t have your own facts.

    Third base is a position, more so than any other (except may SS) is a position that you have to play every day to be good at it. Muncy’s defensive metrics are actually pretty good at 3B and if they let him play there all season, I would expect they will get even better. MLB.com ranked him the 10th best Thirdbaseman in baseball!

    To say “we can win a WS with Muncy at 3B” is just silly. One person at one position does not make a team World Series worthy. The Cardinals won a WS with David Freese and his .941 Fielding percentage at 3B for crying out loud!

    The last three seasons, Max Muncy has had fielding %’s of .955, 1.000 and .975. I think he will put up about a .965 in 2023 and with his bat, that is more than adequate.

    There are a lot of question marks, but that also means a lot of opportunities for the best farm system in baseball to deliver or trade prospects for a player or two.

    1. “Well, you can have your own opinions but you can’t have your own facts.“

      Another overused phrase, and in my opinion doesn’t apply here. Those are opinions, not facts.

      My opinions:

      This infield defense is suspect

      This rotation has one guy in it that projects over 150 innings and more than one guy who comes to the party with suspicion

      The outfield is yet to be determined

      We can win a WS with Muncy at third. It’s 4-Gens opinion we won’t.

      1. At 1B, Freddie is close to Gold Glove defense.

        At 2B, Vargas will surprise most people (not me).

        SS is the question Mark.

        3B with Muncy will be very solid.

        C is very solid.

        RF is Gold Glove

        In LF, Peralta was a former Gold Glove and so is Heyward.

        To me, it all boils down to LUX.

  9. Muncy at third won’t hold us back but a outfield of bounce back players which is is nice way to word it most certainly could. The bottom of order and bench as been our downfall last couple years and seems like going down that beating path once again

    1. AF does not want to show his hand until he sees if he has to make a trade. Outman and Busch will likely get their chance in early summer.

    2. I could of sworn we had an all time franchise record of 111 wins last season, so that path wasn’t as harmful with the bottom lineup. And to me it seems that that weakness is being addressed. On the Dodgers their biggest weaknesses are pretty strong other than the harmony of a dead offense when a rally is needed. It was a whole team that lost in last season’s playoffs.

  10. I like Muncy, just not with a glove on his hand. I realize that Muncy’s defensive metrics are decent, but he doesn’t pass the eye test and his weaknesses are not captured in std metrics. Let me explain. Muncy is avg or below at snagging the line drives down the line. When he misses these plays, he does not get an error. Muncy makes plenty of poor throws to first based that Freeman digs out the the dirt for put-outs. Finally, Muncy is below avg imo on charging a slow roller or bunt. He rarely makes this play. My opinion is to win in the post-season we need stellar, run-saving defense, not avg defense.

    1. FYI, Muncy has lost 20 pounds and is working on agility so as to be even better defensively. If he is allowed to focus just on 3B at 20 pounds lighter and more agile, I think he will be solid. They have three guys in the infield with something to prove and they are willing learners. I like that a lot.

  11. I like what you said about something to prove. I would like to see this team have an edge. Professional and sportsmanlike because they wear the only jersey that matters, but hungry and a little pissed off. I think there’s something powerful about adding talented youth to high club.

  13. Today’s lineup has Peralta Outman Duggar in it. No Muncy or Betts. I think tahts how it’s going to be all year long different lineups every day until they find the right one for the playoffs which is the hot one. Knowing they have Heyward playing Centerfield I think it will come down to Outman and Thompson who makes the team and who goes back to AAA. A Peralta Heyward Betts Outman outfield with Taylor to does feel pretty good. Either Thompson hits well in spring training to make the team if he doesn’t it’s to the minor with Zimmer Duggar Thompson in the outfield with Pages at OKC.

  14. Mark

    You said what I’ve always known and couldn’t figure out why others “talk up” spring training like it’s due or die for some players.

    The powers that be for a contending team already know before spring training, among position players, who is going to be on the opening day roster except maybe 1 spot. Pitchers are a diferent story.

    I do disagree with you about Outman though. Not a surprise.

    Martinez, Smith, Barnes, Freeman, Vargas, Lux, Muncy, Rojas, Betts, Taylor, Outman, are my predictions that are locks (11).

    I think the powers that be already know the name or names of at least 1 and probably both of the other 2 remaining spots. The 3 names that are left for those final 2 spots that I have not identified, although I think Peralta is a lock too, but I’m not positive, that the powers that be most likely already know are Heyward, Peralta, Thompson. Injuries of course could mess with the opening day roster, but unless the injury is severe enough to keep a guy out for many months, the position player roster is pretty much set already by the powers that be and all of us are guessing.

    I still think a move will be made for an outfielder that hits LHP good, unless miraculously Heyward’s new swing (already known by the powers that be) has already fixed that problem. If so the last 2 spots go to Heyward and Peralta most likely with Outman the odd man out and Thompson stays, because Peralta and Taylor would platoon in the final position in the outfield and Outman no way is on the bench . Either way the powers that be already know this stuff and I’m just guessing like everyone else is.

    I’ve learned not to put much stock into what Doc says. So if he says for example “Heyward is the front runner for the last spot” it doesn’t mean much. Heyward could already be a lock.

    Again, pitchers are a different story.

    1. Basically I think Peralta is a lock. The last spot is between Heyward or Thompson. But if Heyward’s swing is miraculously fixed and he can hit both RHP & LHP then Heyward and Thompson are both in and Outman is out. Either way the powers that be already know all of this.

  16. Sorry for taking the conversation out of context…MLB Network was dropped from YouTube TV. I intend to add a MLB package so I can get my fix. I live in SoCal so Dodger games are not immediately available. Someone mentioned a while back that Dodgers minor league games are going to be broadcasted. Do you under what package? Thanks!

    1. I get MLB.TV on Prime Video. Even if I am traveling, it is easy to logo into Amazon… and if you are a Prime member, it’s easy peasy. They also bill me monthly.

      I just got a new Dell Laptop that is smoking fast, and I attach another 22″ Monitor when I travel so that I can work on the laptop and watch the game on the monitor.

    2. So I’m actually using the MLB.TV package right now in LA, and our game is on.

      Not sure if the blackout rules don’t apply to spring, but so far, no blackout

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