A New Third Baseman & Much More…

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1. Well if the Digers are goiyogo with the young guys then veterans like they did in the past. I say why not go get Bryan Reynolds put him as the everyday left fielder and Outman in center field since every one says he is ready and Betts in Rightfield those guys play every day and in late I ning you put the defensive guys in Taylor ans Thompson after you get the lead. Put lux at short stop even thou his throws make Freeman nervous yet you are all comfortable with that. There’s got to be a young stud shortstop some where that would want to be a Dodger that has a good glove and you all think Vargas is going to hit 40 homers and third base so don’t get a veteran third base man either just go with the young guys. Hmm okay when you guys start complaining about Vargas nit hitting and Outman not hitting why then is AF going to rwalize and go dam we need a CF and 3B guy. And you guys will be like oh. Maybe we should have gotten some veterans just in case this didn’t work out. Where is that left fielder for the Braves that killed the Dodgers in the playoffs where is he go get him to play Leftfield if you don’t want to trade for Reynolds. Be a weak lineup with Taylor Thompson Betts Freeman Lux Amaya Muncy Smith JD Martinez if Vargas and Outman can’t hit in the big leagues those ten would be your starters and you all are okay with that.

   1. OK. Not sure I get all that, but I am sure someone does.

      1. Nope. All Chinese to me. He can’t spell worth a damn. One question though. When did anyone on this site ever say Vargas was going to hit 40 homers? Uh, no one. 10-20 would be fine. Turner never hit 40 and he never drove in 100 runs either. 90 was his high-water mark and he did that once. If my memory is intact, and I am pretty sure it is, the last Dodger third baseman, and the only one ever to hit 40 or more as a Dodger was a guy named Beltre. And he did it in his walk year. Turner never even hit 30. All Vargas has to do is be at league average and he will be fine. What is most irritating about Bradley’s post is the fact that he is not willing to wait and see just what the kids will bring during spring training. Those performances will go far in dictating the final 26-man roster. And if they are found lacking, changes will be made. Teams still do make trades during spring training. And quit with the lets trade for Bryan Reynolds crap. Isn’t happening anytime soon. Pittsburgh has stated over and over he is not on the trading block. Also, he is a pretty good hitter, but not that great of a defender. If you get him for left. he is no center fielder, who plays center? Outman or Thompson? Leave the brainstorming and roster building to the pros. I am sorry, but you are stuck with what they are giving you.

         1. My indica edible has kicked in. I’m happy and high.

            And THEN I log on to this blog, and I read Bradley’s post. Thank you Bradley, you just made my evening even better; that was fantastic to read!

            All I need now is the Lakers to somehow win this game without Lebron and AD, and then the Kings to beat Edmonton later on.

            1. You are high. I needed an interpreter.

            2. Wow, whenever I do that, my Digers are goiyogo.

            3. Speaking of ‘high’

               https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTRgD3ocW/

      2. I put his post into Grammarly and it crashed their website.

         Bradley, slowdown and reread before you post. We would like to understand what you’re trying to say.

2. Was typing fast. Sorry, just going with what you guys say. To go with the young guys. And not get any veteran guys to help them win now. That’s all I said. I said go get Adames Reynolds a Outfielder and you all said no to it. Now you understand me. Like it says. In the passed the dodgers went out and got the veterans to help the young guys.

   1. Patience Grasshopper!

   2. In the past Bradley, they did not care about going over the CBT. This season they do. They also want to see what those prospects are capable of doing. After all. aren’t they entitled to the same chance they gave guys like Seager, Pederson, Bellinger??? We are not talking about playing 3 rookies at a time. Maybe two if they produce, if not, they will find replacements. Veteran guys? What do you think Mookie, JD, Freddie and Kersh are? Heyward has been in the league a long time and he can help the kids too. And no one ever said or even hinted that Vargas could hit 40 homers. But he might just surprise all of us and hit 20.

3. Here’s your lineup you all wanted if Outman doesn’t hit and Vargas can’t hit because you all say. Go with who we have.
   Lux 2b
   Betts RF
   Freeman 1b
   JD Martinez DH
   Smith C
   Muncy 3b
   Taylor LF
   Thompson Cf
   Amaya SS
   For all you guys who said to not make moves now there’s your Dodger lineup for 2023. Because you didn’t get guys now and you all said naw don’t get anybody.

   1. That could be a good lineup. However, I believe you do not like Rookies.

      Without rookies, you will never grow!

   2. They got what they could afford. And Amaya is not playing SS, Lux is. The starting outfield on any given day will be Betts in right, Thompson or Outman in center and Taylor or Thompson, or Heyward, if he makes the team in left. CF options include Steven Duggar, if he makes the team, or Bradley Zimmer. Both have MLB experience; Vargas is playing third until he proves he cannot. Muncy will be at second, and if he fails, then Busch will get his shot. You are being incredibly shortsighted about their kids. Exactly Mark and the worst part is he does not want to even give the kids a chance.

      1. When a SS has a weak arm, bad footwork, and the Yips, do they generally stay at SS?

         1. He had the yips, if in spring he does not show he is capable of playing, then someone else will. But for now he is the starting SS until he is not. I am willing to see how it goes, But Amaya is a long shot to make the team. Georgia is crushing TCU 65-7 in the third quarter.

            1. Agree about Amaya. But if the Dodgers can win 111 games with Bellinger not hitting, I could see a scenario where the Dodgers sacrifice some hitting for Amaya’s elite defense. Spring training will be interesting.

         2. I have one thing to say about this. Gwynn-esque.

   3. No one ever said don’t improve the team. It simply came down to they were not willing to break the bank for anybody, including none of the four premier SS on the market. Correa will most likely still sign with the Mets, but his deal will look a lot different than it did. And you act like we are the ones making the decisions. You gotta bitch??? Write Friedman and Gomes. They are in charge.

   4. CT3 Dodgers Nation Interview…

      On Andrew Friedman and Co. – “We know that those guys have one goal in mind and that’s to win a World Series and it’s the same as us. We trust that those guys are going to put us in a position to do that and they’re going to make the moves necessary to do that and if they don’t make the moves it’s because they believe in the guys we have. And I think that’s the case this offseason, is they’re like we have one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball and it’s time to utilize that. I think a lot of our guys that have been in AAA or even some of the guys that have been in the big leagues but up and down or coming off the bench and not playing as much. If they were on other teams I truly believe they’d be Superstar players and they just haven’t got that opportunity.”

      I posted this yesterday. Pay attention to what other players say about their rookie teammates.

4. How about a change in talk then. Who thinks Aaron Rodgers to Las Vegas Raiders next year. And Tom Brady to the San Francisco 49ers. Then Jimmy Groppollo to the New York Jets and last QB Derrick Carr to the Tennessee Titans, The changing of QBs in the NFL for next year. Anyone else have predictions for next year.

   1. Interesting, but unfortunately, I quit watching the NFL the first time a player took a knee for the anthem, and I have not been back. I do watch college football. But baseball is still my favorite sport. Personally, I think Brady and Rodgers are both dinosaurs and should retire. Brandon Belt signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays and in another interesting turn of events, Correa’s talks with the Twins have picked up steam and his Mets deal seems to be foundering.

   2. As much as it pains me to say as a Rams fan but the Niners appear to have struck gold in Purdy. He looks like the second coming of Montana, at least at the moment.
      Packers will keep Rodgers and Brady finally retires.

      Lastly I hope McVay stays with the Rams. Best HC they have ever had. Best 6 year run in franchise history even with this injury riddled season of 2022.

      Go Rams, Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. Harbough supposedly interviewed with the Bronco’s. This after he said he had no intention of leaving Michigan.

5. Trading Cartaya just to get rid of Bauers contract would be a HUGE HUGE mistake IMHO.
   If the goal is to stay under the LTT, which I think would be basically a good move, you have to find another way to make that work.
   I would even consider trading Kershaw at the deadline if he agrees too and we think we are out of the pennant race.

   Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

   1. Cartaya is 21. Right now there is not a team out there who is going to trade for Bauer. That is beyond wishful thinking. The Dodgers are going to end up on the short end of the stick and get stuck with his entire contract. Then some team is going to sign him for the minimum.

6. The prospect lists are a lot fun…. even if they are often so wrong.
   As I recall it, neither Atlanta’s Michael Harris or Cleveland’s Steven Kwan–two breakout stars of 2022–were listed in BA’s Top 100. There are always “can’t miss” prospects who miss. Seattle’s Jered Kelenic was supposed to be a ROY candidate, but can’t figure out major league pitching. The Angels’ Jo Adell has also flopped.
   Yeah, they are young and maybe they’ll get untracked. But there are many reasons to doubt whether Miguel Vargas is really a future star. There is no question, however, that he’ll get his chance.
   My favorite bit of news from the prospect lists was covered in TrueBlueLA:

   Josue De Paula signed with the Dodgers out of the Dominican Republic last January, and doesn’t turn 18 until June. But the outfielder impressed enough in his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League that Eric Longenhagen at FanGraphs ranked De Paula the seventh-best prospect in a very deep system.

   Already listed at 6’3, 200 pounds, De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 20 extra-base hits in 53 games and more walks (32) than strikeouts (31), all at age 17, which earned him a spot in instructional league after the season.

   “The comps that scouts (not just Dodgers personnel, scouts from outside the org) are throwing around here are borderline irresponsible, star DH/LF types who are currently among the most dangerous hitters in baseball,” Longenhagen wrote. “De Paula’s size is likely to push him way, way down the defensive spectrum, maybe even off of it entirely, but the ceiling on his bat is so huge that it may not matter.”

   OK, maybe it’s a couple years too early to get excited, but… holy moly. It will be fun to see his follow his progress. He’s just 17 so he’ll probably and a couple inches and maybe 25 pounds of muscle to his frame. Could be a beast.
   The calculus of rating prospects puzzles me. I guess the idea is to rank them in terms of talent/performance as to who is most likely to be a star. An older prospect, like 26-year-old Outman, may produce better stats at a higher level than a younger guy like Pages–but Pages will get the higher ranking because of his perceived potential. As I recall it, Matt Beatty was something like 27th on Dodgers list when he got called to majors–and I’m sure a lot of guys ranked above him never got the call.
   I remain puzzled why Busch is consistently ranked ahead of Outman, who has posted better stats in recent years. Plus, Outman is a quality outfielder, while Busch is perceived (perhaps unfairly) as mostly a DH type. Age really can’t be much of factor: Outman is 26, Busch 25.
   Older prospects, perhaps, just aren’t as exciting as younger ones. Trout was only 19 when he was called up–and Aaron Judge was 24.
   There’s something to be said for late bloomers, because progress isn’t linear, you know. …

   1. I have seen video of De Paula, and he looks like a scrawny kid. They evidently have seen him at his best. Here is a video of De Paula:

      He looks better here, but I have no clue who is throwing.
      

      It’s really, really hard to project 17 year-olds. Remember Luis Rodriguez? They raved about him. Not so much anymore.

7. While I am at it, here’s some more video on Outman, Amaya and Busch:

   These guys think he can play SS, but realistically Casey never has anything negative to say about Dodger Players:
   

8. Looking at the above videos you will see that Outman is a “pull-type hitter” who still has a strange swing – he uses his arms differently than most hitters – Not saying it is bad… I just think it is unusual.

   Busch on the other hand, has a sweet swing and has lots of Opposite Field Power.

   1. Excellent videos, Mark! Interesting to see Outman’s defense in all outfield positions.
      Certainly has a lot of tools and look forward to seeing him in spring training. Makes me wonder a little why he didn’t at least get a shot at end of last season or on playoff roster. That Gallo trade was ill-advised, and Clayton Beeter is a top 10 prospect with Yankees now. He pitched well last summer after the trade even though he would be well down the Dodger list of RHP, he is second best pitching prospect for Yankees now. He would be a nice trade chip now for Dodgers.

      1. Miller, Pepiot, Stone, Nastrini and a couple of others were ahead of Beeter. It was a bad trade, but I get the risk-reward proposition.

9. Oh, we’re doing this again…

   Career Fielding Percentage at SS
   Trea .972
   Seager .970
   Lux .968
   Taylor .960

   ‘Nuf Said

   1. Figures don’t lie but they also don’t play the game. Lux has a better fielding percentage than Amaya too but no one in their right mind thinks Lux is a better defender than Amaya

      1. And no one in their right mind thinks Amaya will beat out Lux in Spring Training. 😉

         1. We were talking about defense but in your attempt to win an argument which is a matter of opinion, you go and change the parameters of the argument. They call that losing an argument. If defense was the metric then Amaya wins hands down.

         2. I’m not in my right mind.

10. Here are his fielding %’s in the minors at ss:

    2016 Ogden 1.000 8 games
    2016 AZ instructional .899 43 games
    2017 Great Lakes .933 65 games
    2018 RC .921 66 games
    2019 Tulsa .950 55 games
    2019 OK City .977 36 games

    Certainly looks like Mark has a point but that doesn’t mean he won’t get the chance in spring. However, there wouldn’t be so much discussion about whether he can play the position if there wasn’t an issue.

    1. There was a lot of discussion about Sax when he came up and he played 14 seasons at 2B.

11. I don’t think the Dodgers will trade Cartaya based on Rushing’s 100 or so professional ABs. But, it does make sense to trade from a position of strength. Cartaya has glowing scouting reports and results to back them up. We got Scherzer and Trea for K-Bear, who wasn’t as highly touted as Cartaya. If they trade Cartaya, it will be for an elite player only.

12. Okay, I’ll bite. Where is the bridge and how much do you want for it?

    1. The bridge was washed out in the storm….
       I don’t think AF is talking up Lux to build his perceived value for a trade. This idea presumes that other teams don’t do their own scouting and that they would fall for such a tactic. (I also don’t see CF in Lux’s future when there are obviously better options in house.)
       I am a bit puzzled that AF hasn’t mention Taylor as an option. His greater value may be as a UT guy, but if he’s really a better SS than Lux, he’ll get the job.
       Now maybe there’ll be a big trade for Adames or whomever, but I like the idea that Dodgers are using the first half of the season to assess Lux at SS, Vargas, at 3B, Outman and Trayce in the outfield… Etc… Rather than build the powerhouse to start the season–we had one last year, and it did win 111 games–the idea is to have the powerhouse for the playoffs. (AF certainly screwed the pooch on that last year.)
       If Lux passes the test, good for him! Good for the Dodgers! But I too suspect that he’ll be found wanting. Maybe they’ll go after Adames then. But f the Dodgers offense is performing strong, then maybe management emphasizes the glove and improve run prevention. Maybe Amaya gets a shot. Maybe they’ll trade for the O’s Jorge Mateo or ???. My point is there are various options.
       Last night, I watched “Stripes” for the first time in years. There’s a R&R scene where Bill Murray and the guys go to a sports bar with mud wrestling. Near the door is a poster of my old 8th grade football teammate Garry Templeton, then with the Cards. Garry was a great hitter and damn good SS but he was traded to the Padres for Ozzie Smith–and Ozzie would up being a HOF legend.

       1. I haven’t heard the front office come out and say we will be trying out Lux at short for the first half of the season, did you? I haven’t heard them say Taylor will be at short either or that Vargas will definitely be the 3rd baseman, did you? I would like to see Vargas at 3rd. I’d like to see Busch at 2nd and I’d like to see Muncy traded. Outman could start the year at AAA, we don’t know. It’s logical to think some of these things but they’re all trajectory.

          1. PS: I would prefer NOT to see Lux at short.

13. Mark’s is certain with his evaluation of Lux’s inability to be successful at SS and the additional certainty that Amaya can’t hit major league pitching. So, in Mark’s eyes we are looking at the strong possibility of Chris Taylor being a successful everyday SS. CT3, who hit .221 with a 36% K rate and a .677 OPS. CT3, who’s poor stats were the result pf playing while being injured or recovering from injuries. Because of these injuries CT3 was unable to make contact with a pitched ball at an alarming rate. It wasn’t weak contact or multiple foul balls during an at bat. It was that he couldn’t even make contact with a pitch. Mark believes with the removal of the shift and the larger bases CT3 will have a huge bounce back season. That could be true. I really want that to happen for CT3, the team, and the fans. But, in reality, CT3 will have to make contact with a pitched ball in order for the new rules to become relevant to turning his season around.

    Wow. Our new poster, Bradley, might be another example of our public school education system. LOL. Bradley, you have some good thoughts but slow down a bit. Punctuation can be your friend. Typing too fast doesn’t make much sense if you have to make another post explaining why your first post is a garbled mess. Keep contributing. Try to throw in a period or two while doing so.

    Per Bradley’s opinion about having veterans available to fill in holes because he believes the rookies will be failures. How do you know that? What’s the point of having a farm system if you’re afraid or unwilling to give the prospects an opportunity to succeed at the major league level? With the Dodger prospects and them being rated highly it’s either play them or trade them. But, not to give them a chance at the MLB level is not right. It’s not the end of the world if they turn out to be overrated. Trades or FA can always fix a problem. The Dodgers have done it before and can do it again. Bradley had posted a “veteran” lineup from the current roster. Not bad at all. I’ll take Betts, Freeman, Smith, JDM, Muncy, and Lux all day long. Excluding Lux, all have proven track records of being very productive hitters. They provide an nice opportunity to work in Vargas, Outman, with possibly including Amaya and Busch. If Thompson can stay healthy he should be able to repeat his success from last year and be able to contribute in LF (or CF) with Taylor available to give TT some time off to maintain that health. Throw in Heyward into the OF mix and should be in good shape. Very anxious for spring training and see which new guys emerge to the 26 man roster.
    Carry on.

14. I thought just the other day we were supposed to be trading CT3 to ensure the Dodgers stay under the cap. Now he’s the starting SS?

    Jacob Amaya will a good utility infielder someday.

    I took another look at Adames. He’s a “buy high” candidate right now, and it’ll take Cartaya to even start a conversation.

    Even if Mark gets his wish and his favorite whipping boy Lux is moved to 2nd base, where does Muncy play? So, Vargas goes to left field, now?

    1. Lux is not my whipping Boy. As much as I would hate it, I might try and trade Cartaya for Adames (especially if AF could extend Adames (6 years – $150 Million). Here’s the lineup I want to see:

       1. Lux CF
       2. Betts RF
       3. Freeman 1B
       4. Martinez DH
       5. Muncy 2B
       6. Smith C
       7. Vargas 3B
       8. Adames SS
       9. Taylor/Busch LF

       Now we are talking! In want Gavin Lux to just use his athleticism to hit and play CF. Let nothing else distract him.

15. Welcome back to Minnesota, Carlos Correa.

    Six years/$200 MM with vesting options that could take it to $270MM

    No opt outs.

    The deal is pending a physical. 🙂

    1. $20 says within 3 weeks he’ll be signing in Miami for 4 years, 140mil

       1. You’re on Bobby.
          I think Miami used up all their money with this morning’s 8 mil contract to Cueto.
          $140MM is ten year’s total payroll budget for them.

    2. Carlos Correa’s Motto:

       If you ain’t cheatin’ you ain’t tryin’

    3. Awesome, happy for the Twins.

16. Old friend Matt Beaty signs a minor league deal with the Royals. Nashville is trying to get an MLB franchise. Maybe they can move the Marlins out of Miami.

    1. THey should have signed Rios instead.

       1. He is still out there. Surprised no one has signed him yet. I have to believe that the Dodgers are going to give Lux a lot of leeway at SS this spring. He will either win the job, or he won’t. Depends on how they feel about his defense. Unlike Mark, I would never put Lux in centerfield. After what I saw him do out there the first time around, he is not an outfielder. He did not look comfortable. And I do not think he has enough power to be considered an everyday outfielder. They can still bring an experienced SS in if they feel the need.

17. Thanks for the videos above on Amaya, Busch and Lux. I could watch video on middle infielders all day. I’ve seen Amaya and Busch and Lux at short on a limited basis in the Springs. It doesn’t take me that long, however, to evaluate infield mechanics. A couple of things jumped out immediately in the videos. I like Busch’s balance at the plate. And Amaya’s feet at short. I love Amaya’s defensive actions. I think he will hit enough to compete for that job and I think he’s heads above Lux and CT3 there. Lux has poor feet at 2nd around the bag and looks better at SS. But I don’t love his arm strength from short during the limited times I’ve seen him there and in the video. Guys can get by with weaker arms if they get the ball in the air. Like David “just-in-time” Ekstein. But a bigger arm at SS is preferred. Amaya’s arm looks much stronger to me. I think he is underrated by some on this site and comments like “he will make a nice utility guy someday,” short change his skill. He will be, in my opinion, much more than that. I think he’s a big league shortstop – somewhere. But you can’t hit while you sit, so this will be a big spring for Amaya, when he gets his opportunities. Last spring, Lux was trying to earn a job at 2nd, if I’m not mistaken. We’ll see.
    But thanks for the video, Mark.

    1. nice scouting report, thanks!

       Amaya is one of the guys I’m looking forward to most in spring training.

       Granted I have a list of 40 guys, but he’s at the top

    2. So, I wasn’t trying to besmirch Amaya as a player by labeling him as a future utility player. If he stays with the Dodgers, however, I think that is his most likely role, and he might actually have tough time latching on with a team as full time SS for the same reason the discussion about Ozzie Smith, if you scroll down a bit, concludes that even The Oz wouldn’t be a starting SS today. It’s a different game. You don’t really have glove specialists who don’t really hit anymore.

       To be fair, I looked at the starting shortstops in the league so see if I could pick out a comp for Amaya based on his future projections as a player based on mlb.com (which is generous, IMO) and Zips – better than average defense, .230-260 hitter, 10% walk rate, 8-15 HRs, 85-100 wRC+. I get Jorge Mateo or Jeremy Pena if I want to give him the benefit of the doubt; Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Miguel Rojas (former Dodger) if I want to be stingy, but still reasonable comps.

       https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31

       I’m being a little generous with Amaya’s defense. I think he has a good arm and decent footwork to my inexperienced eyeballs. He’s good at throwing off balance and from weird angles. I wasn’t sure about his range. It didn’t look exceptional to me.

       I will say, having taken a closer look at those videos, that Lux does not have an exceptional arm. It’s more than the yips. It’s just not a strong arm. I might actually be coming around to Mark’s opinion of his SS defense. Those guys in the video gushing about his D were total homers.

18. Bear, Matt Beaty didn’t sign with the Marlins, he signed with the Royals.

    1. That is what I said…just kidding, I fixed it.

19. I don’t see much wrong with this lineup either:

    1. Lux CF
    2. Betts RF
    3. Freeman 1B
    4. Martinez DH
    5. Muncy 2B
    6. Smith C
    7. Vargas 3B
    8. Taylor/Busch LF
    9. Amaya SS

    1. Nope, I am not playing Lux in centerfield. He looked like a deer in the headlights the few times I have seen him out there. Did not look good in LF either. If he isn’t playing SS, he needs to be at second.

    2. Would Ozzie Smith start for any MLB team in 2023?

       I don’t think so. And I don’t think Jacob Amaya will either.

       You can’t get that little production at SS anymore.

       1. Ozzie would be cut before the end of spring. Back in those days, it was a different game. The game is driven by offense now, hence the rule changes banning the shift and enlarging the bases.

       2. Interesting to look back at Ozzie Smith’s stats on Fangraphs and look his value based on the sabre nerd stuff. He was still a consistent 4-6 WAR player every year even though his wRC+ hovered around 100 (league average) and he got lucky and maybe hit 2 HRs a year. His defense was THAT good.

          I think if Ozzie Smith in his prime just dropped from the sky into a Spring training facility I think scouts would recognize just how exceptional his defense was and he’d play. I think the emphasis is on hitting, so young kids in the Dominican are scouted and developed as hitting first players, and middle class American parents send their kids to baseball camps that emphasize hitting first. It all becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. It’d be fun for a guy to come up who was just an absolute defense wizard, changed the fortunes of a team based on his defense, and became a disruptor and changed the paradigm back to having players who’s defensive value really are game changers. Prototypical players based on stat nerd templates are boring. It’s kind of group think.

20. I wish I knew all the answers. But I cannot remember any spring training where there was not a question mark or ten. I think this season differs in the fact that they lost so many players who were instrumental in their championship runs over the last several years. Losing the Turner boys left a gap. Bellinger’s glove will be missed. Anderson was a solid pickup last year, but how many actually thought he would be as good as he was? None that I can remember. I think many are not convinced that Muncy and Taylor can rebound. Many doubt that the kids are going to be able to put up good numbers also. I will say I expect Vargas to be better than he was in his short stint with the team, and I do not expect Outman to be as good as he was. Somewhere in-between though would be acceptable. I have not seen enough of Amaya to make any solid judgments of how he would work out as the everyday SS. What I do know is that all I have heard from the front office is that they are ok with Lux being that guy. And since he will get every opportunity to prove he is, I do not think Mark’s idea of him playing center is going to materialize. Just not enough time in spring for him to get solid playing time at both positions. Like the Joc Pederson 1st base fiasco, I believe Lux’s days as an outfielder are behind him. Besides, they have 3 guys with MLB experience as CF already in place. It makes no sense to take time away from those guys and give it to Lux who is a career infielder. If he were to play center, the only smart move would be playing him there every inning of every spring game. Nope, not happening.

    1. Here’s what I think:

       This is the Ultimate Bluff by Andrew Friedman. He knows that Lux is not a SS, but is trying to deal from a point of strength, not weakness. So, he is essentially saying that Gavin Lux is their SS, when in fact, he has no intention to put him there. Maybe I am crazy. We will learn soon enough.

       I cannot believe AF thinks Lux is a SS… because I don’t and he is much smarter than me. Watch and see!

       1. And I cannot believe he thinks he is a center fielder. No way. He has 5 guys on the roster who have played center field a lot. 4 of them have major league experience out there. Why in the world would he even consider putting Lux in center. He looked lost out there in the outfield, and another thing, I do not think he feels comfortable out there either.

       2. Now Lux is a man without a position? If Amaya can be somewhat productive with the bat and Muncy is moved to 2B then Lux could play in LF which is the easiest of the OF positions. That decision would have to be made early to give Lux the time to practice the position. Lux is more than athletic enough to play the OF and especially LF. He made some good plays in LF last year. He, also, had some deer in the headlights moments as well. Hell, maybe Muncy can play LF. Bottom line I would love to see Amaya at SS. Like Dave Roberts, I have a gut feeling that Amaya’s offense will be adequate.

          1. How would AF be dealing from a point of strength? If I’m a GM and get contacted by AF about my SS that kinda tells me that AF needs a SS because the ones he was counting on aren’t going to cut it. Thus, no apparent leverage. If that in fact comes into play then AF is going to have to pay up because of a urgent need and it’s the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the prospects to make a deal happen. Hopefully, that scenario doesn’t occur.

       3. So, if he doesn’t have the arm to play SS, what makes you think he has the arm to play CF? Isn’t a good arm in CF kind of important, too?

          Bluff? … or just no other options? He can’t take on salary, and Cartaya for Adames is just to get the Brewers to answer the phone. In reality, they’re gonna want more.

          Ok, here’s my brilliant trade proposal, and I don’t give a shit about Bluto’s trade calculator. Cartaya, Miller and Bauer for Adames, and the Brewers assume 5 million of Bauer’s salary. “Look! I don’t care what you do with Bauer! Cut him and take the 5 million hit or play him. We don’t care. We just need 5 mil of cap relief.”

21. News from Internet:

    Ben Clemens Chat:
    Inaccessible Rail: I can’t decide if next year will be a career renaissance for Noah Syndergaard because of Dodger coaching or it will be a disaster for him since he’s terrible at stopping the run. Which do you think it will be?

    Ben Clemens: I’m thinking renaissance thanks to the Dodgers, but yeah, he will also get run on a lot. He’s maybe the worst pitcher I’ve seen in person when it comes to holding the run. You can just see it. =With most pitcher, their abillity to hold runners on is indistinguishable ot me, but with Syndergaard it’s evident right away.

    Phil: From a historical perspective, how would you rank Verlander, Kershaw and Scherzer?

    Ben Clemens: Man, this is a tough one. For me, it’s Kershaw > Verlander = Scherzer. They’re the best three of this generation, of course, and Effectively Wild has covered the striking similarity between Scherzer’s and Verlander’s careers.

    Kershaw is a weird case b/c of his playoff record, but his peak was just ludicrous, and then he’s been an above average pitcher for another six years after everyone wrote him off.

    Phil: re: Kershaw and recency bias, i respectfully disagree. No doubt Kershaw had the best 5-year peak of the three (possibly the best 5-year peak of all time). But In terms of career accomplishments, cases can be made for any of them. Kershaw has 3 Cy Young awards. So does Verlander. So does Scherzer. Kershaw has 7 Top 5 Cy Young finishes. Verlander has 9. Scherzer has 9. Kershaw has pitched ~2,600 innings. Verlander has pitched ~3,100. Scherzer ~2,700. Kershaw has a significantly better ERA+.

    Ben Clemens: I think it’s reasonable to take the average of career and peak – royalties to Jay Jaffe pending – and that peak puts Kershaw over the top for me. They’re all great, though

    Dan: Who is a prospect that you’re most interested to see how they perform this year?

    Ben Clemens: Miguel Vargas. I’ve been high on him for years, every time I build a predictive model he comes up as exceptional. I think that the Dodgers giving him a fair shake is awesome, and I’d love to see him rake

    Wild side-by-side look at Max Fried vs. Gavin Stone:
    https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1611084591812718597/pu/vid/1152×720/i7EBcrpF12wG2R5s.mp4?tag=12

    Baseball America’s look at the Dodgers system ($$$$$)
    https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1011/los-angeles-dodgers/organizational/
    Cartaya, Miller, Vargas. Nastrini at 9.
    Best Hitter for Average: Miguel Vargas
    Best Power Hitter: Andy Pages
    Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Michael Busch

    jay Jaffe chat:
    Matt: Is the Pirates reported offer to Bryan Reynolds of 6 years, $75 million insultingly low?

    Jay Jaffe: Here’s one for you: as I was reminded when writing today’s HOF series profile, when the Guggenheim group took over the Dodgers, their first big move was to extend Andre Ethier via a five-year, $85 million deal IN 2012. Granted, Reynolds has more time to go before free agency but what the Pirates are offering wouldn’t have been agreed to by even an All-Star level outfielder a decade ago.

    Leon: How do JD Martinez and Justin Turner compare?

    Jay Jaffe: I said words to this effect at the time of the two deals: I wouldn’t trade Turner — older but still a better hitter and defensively capable at 3B — for Martinez, who is pretty much DH only and a shadow of the hitter he once was. And that’s even before we get into the softer factors of, like, trading a key clubhouse figure and community pillar for a guy who used a Hitler quote in a meme about gun control.

    Broken Bat: happy new year. Jay, I see many concerns with the Dodger infield defense heading into ST. Muncy at 3rd, Lux as Ss and Taylor at 2b.

    Avatar Jay Jaffe: Very much so. That’s not the infield of a division winner. I don’t think it would be even if they do something like trade for Eduardo Escobar to play 3B and have Muncy and Taylor share 2B. Just don’t see Lux as having the glove for regular SS duty and their lineup needs a bigger bat at the hot corner.

    FanGraphs looks at the Dodgers’ system:
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-51-prospects-2023/

    Kyle Glaser from Baseball America chats about the Dodgers ($$$$$)
    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-los-angeles-dodgers-top-10-prospects-chat/

    some highlights:
    Mike R (Lockport, NY): Did Rayne Doncon get into the top 15 and what was the word on Jeral Perez ?

    Kyle Glaser: Doncon did not get into the Top 15. He’s pretty far off from that in a system this deep and talented… Perez is more of a wait-and-see prospect. He’s not in the Dodgers Top 30 at this time.

    James (North East, MD): The Dodgers might have one of the deepest farm systems, but in my opinion, their Top 10 is in the middle of the pack, and not even close to the O’s, Diamondbacks, Guardians, or Nationals. Am I wrong?

    Kyle Glaser: It depends where you want to do your cutoff. The Orioles’ top two is better than the Dodgers’ top two. The D-backs top four is better than the Dodgers top four. But the Dodgers top six are the best top six of any team, Orioles and D-backs included. It just depends what you value most, the top 2-3 guys in a system or the top 5-6.

    YouTube’s Dodger Prospects show takes a look at relief options at OKC:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Drio-HNPTxA
    Pepiot, Grover, Robertson and Jackson among other discussed.

    “Dodgers just lost Tommy kaneley yeah I really think Andre Jackson can come into high leverage situations…”
    “A guy they’re kind of flying under the radar that got sent up to Oklahoma, Justin Hageman”

    Jay Jaffe looks at Andre Ethier’s case for the HOF:
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2023-hall-of-fame-ballot-andre-ethier/
    It would be an overstatement to call the Dodgers’ acquisition of Andre Ethier a turning point in the franchise’s history…

    Bill Plunkett on Ronan Kopp (a personal favorite, oh, $$$$)
    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/dodgers-ronan-kopp-keeps-exceeding-expectations/
    Lefthander Ronan Kopp stands out even in a Dodgers’ system loaded with pitching prospects.

    “An incredibly successful year, probably one of the biggest developmental stories of the year,” said Dodgers farm director Will Rhymes, who added that Kopp was flashing high-90s velocity and throwing strikes at 2021 instructional league.

    Dodger PRospects on YouTube talk about Vargas, Busch and Outman:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOXFTT9hmTI

    Ben Clemens looks at the Dodgers off-season:
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-have-had-a-strange-offseason/
    Maybe we shouldn’t doubt the Dodgers. They’ve won nine out of the last 10 NL West titles, and in the year they didn’t win the division, they won 106 games. They’re juggernauts by design, a team built to withstand the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. They draft well, develop well, spend a ton of money, and spend that money intelligently. They’re the closest thing baseball has to a dynasty these days, and given the inherent randomness of the playoffs, that’s not likely to change anytime soon.

    That’s all true – and despite it all, I’m leaning towards doubting their chances in 2023…

    ZIPS projection for the Dodgers in 2023
    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-zips-projections-los-angeles-dodgers/
    …Short of some major trade, the final preseason projections will probably have the Dodgers in a very tight race with the Padres; it will likely be the closest NL West race that ZiPS has forecast in some time, outside of 60-game seasons. But while the Dodgers have problems, with a bit of luck, they could easily win 105 games and lap the NL West.

    1. Thanks for great info, Bluto!

22. Still think a lot of people would like to have Brandon drury on this team. Plays 2nd, 3rd, and some outfield. Can’t make me believe Friedman couldn’t have done that one. Angels Got a steal! My hope is we don’t wait too long to make a move if Vargas & or outman struggle. I believe our starters are as good and deep as anyone in national league, bullpen is going to be terrific. Thor might just win 15 -16 games if he gets decent run support. And there it is ! Run support. Could be difference between division title and a wid card. Love college basketball! It can’t wait for dodger baseball! Talk has been fantastic last couple days ! Keep it up guys!

    1. I sincerely think you are underestimating this offense. It might not score as much as last years team, but I think they will be more consistent than last year.

23. Hope you’re right on! Can’t believe we haven’t heard someone calling for Barnes to play 2nd base!

24. Fielding percentage is one of the weaker metrics in the game. We all have seen balls drop in front of bad outfielders for hits that good outfielders turn into outs. And unless there’s an injury in play, premium gloves aren’t prone to slump. Even when his bat sucked, we could count on Belli to make plays in CF. How many games has Mookie won with his range, glove and arm?
    Outman will K a lot but he also brings top-shelf defense. He was rated just behind Amaya in the farm system.
    Busch may have the prettier swing, but he also strikes out a lot and his offensive production in 2022, while good, was far surpassed by Outman. In OKC, Outman has an OPS of 1.108 over 251 PAs, while Busch clocked .823 over 504 PAs. So yes, Busch was promoted from Tulsa ahead of Outman.
    Both were very good in Tulsa: Busch had a 1.12 OPS over 137 PAs, while Outman was at .946 over 307 PAs.
    This is, obviously, just a snapshot comparison, but I would argue that the 2022 stats are the most relevant. (Busch had a better college record and was drafted higher–but so what? What have you done for us lately?) When I look at their strikeout and walk rates, I don’t see a big difference. Vargas does a better job of limiting Ks.
    The comparison shows something else that may or may not be significant: Outman IMPROVED at the higher level, while Busch faded a bit. (While top draft picks like Kendall and Hoese have faltered, Outman has improved at just about every level.) I’m not knock Busch–his numbers are good–but I can’t see how one can argue that Busch was better in the batter’s box–and nobody is saying Busch would be better in the field.
    And yet every prospect ranking I’ve seen rates Busch above Outman. Our chief scout puts DeLuca, Pages and that other kid–Ramos?–ahead of Outman.
    The Dangerfield effect is really pretty funny. Maybe it’s why Gallo got the runway that Outman deserved. And Vargas too, for that matter.
    But I also think Outman and Trayce are part of the reasons that AF let Belli go.
    Stay tuned…

    1. Another way to phrase all of this is that Busch has been better than Outman for their entire minor league careers except for the 57 games that Outman played at AAA.

25. I was just thinking that. Since the Dodgers need Muncy in the lineup every day. Right. Why not put Lux in center field he has speed. Then they the Dodgers get a legit short stop like how about that short stop from the Indians Rosario. He fields great and has a good bat. The Dodgers then move James Outman to Leftfield. So, He and Thompson or Taylor are at that postion. And then if you still want Heyward to get some at bats. You have him in Center field giving Lux some days off. So, here’s a lineup with Lux in center field because the Dodgers need his bat in the lineup. And for all you saying I can’t write. Bite me. Your probable typing on a dinosaur computer desktop system. And me on a dam cellphone. So sometimes spell check changes words. So to the grammar policy you can ???!!! OFF.
    lux cf
    Betts RF
    Freeman 1B
    JD Martinez DH
    Smith C
    muncy 2B
    Vargas 3B
    Outman LF
    Rasorio SS

    How about that and that’s what I meant by mixing veterans with rookies. Okay!

26. Put Lux in center field and Outman in Leftfield and go trade for a shortstop that has experience playing short stop. Since Muncy has to play 2nd base or 3rd base. I am all for that. Theres short stops out there that could help the Dodgers. The short stop in Cleveland is good Rosario. He is a veteran who can hit in the eight or nine spot in the lineup. Remember when the Dodgers got Alfredo Griffen late in his years. And he was decent for the Dodgers. He played almost every day. Go get a guy like that. I am good with Lux in Center field. And if there’s no where for Lux to play. You then trade him. Who needs a second baseman.

27. I liked baseball a lot better when I was totally ignorant of sabermetrics. The game and the times were simpler. If Lux doesn’t have the arm to play SS, he damn sure does not have the arm to play center. Left field is the only outfield position where a cannon of an arm is not necessary. I like my corner outfielders to have some power. Lux has not shown that ability in the majors yet. He hit more than 20 just once in the minors. He has 18 in parts of four seasons in the majors. Okay Bradley I’ll bite. But first let me clarify a couple of things for you, okay? One. Rosario is a veteran, but he is not old. He is only 26 and would cost you some high-rated prospects. Two. Cleveland made it to the playoffs last season with Rosario at short for 140 games. And they have no replacement on the bench. So, explain to me why a pennant contender like the Guardians, would trade their starting shortstop without having his replacement in place. Nothing at this point in time with the Dodgers is set in stone. They need spring training to figure out who is going to play where. You might be good with Lux in center but having seen his misadventures out there the last time he played the position, he is no centerfielder. In my very humble opinion, he is no outfielder at all. If he is not playing SS, then he needs to play second base. But it will all be worked out in spring. If Cleveland did make Rosario available, maybe the Dodgers could expand the trade and get their third baseman, Jose Ramirez also. That to me would be a package worth exploring. Even better, add Shane Bieber to the deal and make it a blockbuster. Ramirez is signed through 2028 so that gives you 4 more years of control. You would have to offer a new contract to Rosario because he is a free agent after the season. Bieber you would have through the 24 season so he would be eligible for a new deal at the same time Walker Buehler is. If Cleveland decided to trade Rosario, it would most likely not be until the deadline when they can MAXIMIZE his trade value. At any rate, they are not trading him until then.

28. Thanks Bluto, for Posting the Links above. Fangraphs ranked Milke Busch #3 and James Outman #26. They evidently don’t think much of Outman. I think they dissed Eddys Leonard!

    1. MLB.com ‘ Pipeline conducted a poll.
       https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-front-office-selections-top-prospects

       Some highlights:
       It ranked Dodgers #2 in farm systems (21% of vote)
       #1 in drafting
       Tied for #1 in int’l signings

29. Iisnt Elvis Andrus still out there as a free agent. He played shortstop for the Rangers and As and a free agent. That’s the kind of player the Dodgers find and they turn them into an all-star. Then at least we know he can play short stop .

    1. Yes he is. He got 14.2 million dollars last season. The Dodgers still have their arbitration eligible players to deal with. They are eating Bauers 22.5 million. The CBT is 233 million. They are according to most sources only 100,000 dollars below the tax. Now as has been started several times they are trying to stay under the tax. That means they are not going to sign a guy who most likely will ask for something close to the amount of money he made last season. Even if he only signed for 7, he would be at this point, too expensive for Freidman to sign. As long as they are trying stay below the tax, signing Andrus is something they would not do. He is by the way, 34 years old. He will be 35 in August. Iglesias is still out there too and he would not cost as much as Andrus. But again, you are throwing stuff against the wall to see what might stick. I would almost guarantee there have been conversations about the shortstop position. Andrus is past his All-Star years. Lux is going to be the shortstop until he isn’t and no matter what we fans might want or think, they are going to give him every opportunity to win the job in spring training. Andrus was with the White Sox and A’s last season. 2020 was his last year with Texas. Andrus hasn’t made the All-Star team since 2012.

    2. Elvis has le and ft the room. He will be 35 years old and his offensive stats resembled Cody Bellinger. No thank you! I would take Amaya over Andres!

30. From above- No doubt Kershaw had the best 5-year peak of the three (possibly the best 5-year peak of all time). Please check the last 5 years of Sandy Koufax!

    1. Who ever said that is delusional. From 62 to 66 Koufax won 111 games, he had a sub 2 ERA over those 5 years and 100 complete games. He struck over 300 3 times in that 5-year span, and he threw 4 no-hitters. Kersh won 83 over his best 5-year stretch. He won 20 once, struck out over 300 once. He has 25 complete games in his career. Kersh is the best pitcher of his generation, but he is no Koufax.

31. A lot of users are talking a Cartaya and Miller trade.
    AF did not trade those kids at last years deadline to improve the team for the stretch run and playoffs (and we had some holes back then too) so why should he trade them this season when it is very obvious the Dodgers a) are trying to hit the reset button on the luxury tax and b) are willing to give 3-4 rookies a shot at starting or at least tons of playing time ?
    I mean would an Adames make the difference this season ? IMHO this season will be a transitional year with no real shot at a WS title. Too many questions marks on the roster. Almost everything would have to unfold perfectly for the Dodgers to win the pennant, let alone a WS title. This team with or without an Adames is not good enough.
    Hold the fort, keep the kids , reset the luxury tax and go all out after a WS title beginning in 2024.
    Give the kids playing time and experience in 2023, decided who is a keeper and who is not, go after Ohtani and Sasaki next offseason and make a trade or two for a missing piece . That is what it looks to me what the Dodgers are attempting. And I am fine with it.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. … and yet many Baseball Pundits are predicting Big Things for the Dodgers. MLB Writer, Will Leitch writes this:

       2023: Dodgers over Blue Jays
       It would be incredibly fitting if the Dodgers, after falling short with two absolutely titanic teams, won a World Series after an offseason in which they were widely criticized for not making enough major moves. Even stripped down from last year — and it’s kind of hilarious to use that term when you’re referring to this fantastic Dodgers team — Los Angeles is still arguably the class of the National League, and, you know, the whole point of having a great team every year is that, one of these days, you’re going to get hot in the playoffs and win the whole thing. (Which of course, happened in 2020 for the Dodgers.) As for the American League, the Blue Jays were good in 2022 but still felt like they underperformed. Here’s betting on a season this time where everything lands exactly right. (Get on the Vlad Jr. MVP train while you can, folks.)

       1. I like the way the season is shaping up. Many of the teams who have won past World Series had lots of questions in the Spring. What we do know is that the Dodgers probably AGAIN have the best pitching staff (top to bottom) in baseball and some young hitters that may deliver better than the old guard!

32. Trevor Story’s surgery means that Boston is in the market for a SS too. If the Dodgers are angling for one, they now have a bit more competition.

33. Okay let’s talk about possible managers to replace Roberts when he has this rebuild team next season. I think a great manager would be Chase Utley. He should be the manager at AAA. So he gets familiar with these young kids. That’s what Lasorda sis hw came up with the young kids when he took over. Any other managers you would like to see take over for Roberts. Of course fans would love to see. Mike Scioscia as the next manager I know I would.

    1. You just opened Pandora’s box.

       1. Ha ha I try to Bulldog. Start some good debates with that one.

          1. I’m surprised Mark and JayB haven’t responded already.

    2. First and foremost, I’m pretty sure Utley has said he’s uninterested in managing.

       He is (or was) involved with the Dodgers front office, but in an unofficial capacity.

       Friedman said in a 2019 article from the Los Angeles Times, “I think he can impact any area he decides to spend a lot of time on and I think, right now, it’s just about taking it all in… Right now it’s just about learning as much as he can about different aspects and then figuring out what areas he’s more interested in.” He did spend time with Los Angeles’ front office at the winter meetings that December in Las Vegas.

       1. Update:

          He said it here:
          https://www.mlb.com/news/chase-utley-reflects-on-phillies-c286921670
          MLB.com: Do you think you’d ever coach?

          Utley: I would say no at this point just because coaching takes up so much time. Over the past six years, I’ve missed out a lot of time with my boys, so I want the opportunity to hang with them a little more.

          Granted that was almost 5 years ago! Things change.

    3. They have a manager at AAA. His name is Travis Barbary. Barbary has been with the Dodger organization for 25 years. He has managed OKC since 2018. He was at one time the teams roving catching instructor. I hate to burst your bubble, but Roberts is signed through 2025. Three more years. The only way he gets fired is if this team has a total collapse during the season. He is also the only manager in Dodger history, and we are talking since 1890 when they first joined the National League, to ever win 100 or more games in 4 seasons. Dressen did it once, 1953, Alston twice, 62 and 74, and Durocher did it twice, 40 and 41. The only other time they won 100 games was in 1899 when Ned Hanlon was the manager. He also has the highest winning percentage of any Dodger manager ever. .632. So I think you are about 3 years premature in talking about a new manager. Ownership and the front office love the guy. They care less what us fans think.

       1. The Dodgers just ate 22M for a pretty good player. Don’t think a manager’s contract means he’s secure. That being said, I don’t think Roberts will be fired any time soon, I’m just saying that his contract won’t prevent the Dodgers from doing so.

          We all know he has a great record. But, so did Mattingly.

          1. Not really he didn’t. His teams won 82, 86, 92 94, 92. He finished 3rd, 2nd, and then won the division 3 times. His teams were 8-11 in post season play. His winning pct is .551 with the Dodgers and .483 overall. I know the 6 mil Roberts gets for managing means basically nothing to ownership, but still, they feel he is the right man to lead the team.

34. This coming Sunday Jan. 15 2023 is officially known as the first day of the international signing period and it means everything to the prospects from across the globe who sign during the 11-month span. For these prospects, it is their first step in professional baseball. It’s also when their dreams are realized.The international signing period starts Sunday and runs through Dec. 15, 2023.

    The Dodgers are tied to signing Joendry Vargas, SS, Dominican Republic
    At 6-foot-3, the long and lean teen will face questions about his ability to stay at shortstop, but he already shows a quick first step, good hands and plus instincts for position. He’ll stay in the middle of the infield for as long as he can, but his plus arm potential will serve him well if he transitions to third base in the future.At the plate, he shows an advanced approach with the ability to hit for average. One of the top hitters in the class, he hits line drives to all fields and shows home run potential with a mechanically sound swing. Vargas is expected to show more raw power and rack up extra-base hits as he fills out his frame. He is ranked third on MLB’s list of International players.

    The Dodgers and Rangers each forfeited $1,000,000 from their pools for signing players who had rejected qualifying offers to lower their pool to $4,144,000.The Dodgers surpassed the luxury tax threshold the previous season and had to forfeit $1,000,000 for Freddie Freeman. The Rangers forfeit $500,000 each for Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.*The forfeited monies are redistributed to the other clubs. *Teams will be allowed to trade international bonus slots during this signing period starting Jan. 15.

    1. I mean you can see “the case” for why the Dodgers want to reset.

       1. It’s certainly debatable. Here are the main points.

          The Dodgers spent almost $100 Million in the International Signing Period 2016-1017. Not one player turned into a productive MLB player for the Dodgers.

          https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-chances-of-a-drafted-baseball-player-making-the-major-leagues-a-quantitative-study/

          First round picks in the MLB draft have a 10-15% chance of playing in the Majors for 3 years.

          By the time you get to just the 3rd round, your draft pick has about a 6% chance of playing in the Majors for 3 years.

          So, isn’t there a better case to forgo a 15% chance of getting an MLB player through the drafter vs. signing a productive MLB player in Free Agency?

          1. Not sure what you are saying, but if you are saying the draft > International signings.

             Totally, but there are draft penalties to being over the threshold too. Significant ones.

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