Let’s face it, over the past several seasons’ Dodger fans have been spoiled. The team has both excited and exasperated us. Nine division titles in 10 years, 3 World Series, and one World Championship in a shortened season that was probably one of the hardest seasons for both fans and players to live through. Favorite players leaving by either free agency or trade. Just a trying and exhilarating 10-year span. But in hindsight, have we come to expect too much? Last year most fans felt the Dodgers would roll into the World Series without any problem whatsoever. So, what happened? It is easy to look back and place blame. But in my mind, we expected too much.
On paper, they were the elite of baseball. Based on projections, they were going to win the division handily, they did better than that, they dominated. Then they were supposed to roll through the playoffs and dismantle any American League opponent. Whoops. But most of us here are adults. We should realize there is no Dodger blue Santa who is just going to bring us presents. We would like a Reynolds or Adames-type player; some are screaming for a legitimate closer. But few are just willing to trust Freidman’s judgment and ability to evaluate his options.
Also, puzzling is the contempt shown for Gavin Lux’s ability to play SS at the major league level. This is based on a very small sampling of 68 games at the position in his short time in the majors. Equally puzzling is the anointing of Vargas as an MLB hitter in his also very small sampling. Yep, the guy has hit everywhere he has played. But we all should know by now with what we have seen, that hitting in the minors does not always translate to the majors. He is a top prospect for sure and is penciled in to be the starting third baseman.
Nobody has a clue as to how both will perform under the pressure cooker that is an MLB pennant race. Another conundrum is the fans refusal to face the fact that the Dodgers are indeed trying to stay under the CBT ceiling. If they had no compunction about staying under, they would have indeed signed one of the premier free agents and not worried about paying the tax. I have to believe this season is all about re-setting the tax, and maybe making a run at Ohtani, or if nothing else, signing Urias to a four- or five-year deal. I doubt they go longer than that. Just like I believe there is no way AF signs another player to a deal like Mookie’s. That is also the reason, I do not think they will in all reality sign Ohtani. That much money for one player, even one with his talents, is just absurd.
Busch, Outman, Vargas, Lux, are all going to get a long look at their respective positions this spring. And we the fans will not know what the 26-man roster is going to look like until the morning of the season opener. Heyward, Duggars and Zimmer, were not signed to just be in the minors. They were signed to see if they could possibly help the team when needed. Heyward has probably the best chance of this trio of making the team. He at least at one point in his career performed at the top level in the league. Can he do it again? Remains to be seen. But I would not just write a player with his skill set off.
Fans can make trades in their minds that they feel would make the team better. But in all reality, there is no one player who is going to automatically make them the favorites to win the whole thing. If the Mets signing of Carlos Correa gets finalized, and MLB.TV analysts believe it will with some tweaks in language, on paper, they are a powerhouse. With some finite cracks in the armor. Their everyday lineup is pretty solid. Their pitching rotation features a couple of Cy Young winners who have done so multiple times. But both are on the wrong side of 35. And both have had nagging injuries in the recent past.
Dodger fans have also groused about the fact that with the exception of the Rockies, the other three teams in the division have made several moves in an attempt to improve while it seems that with the exception of a starting pitcher, a back end of the bullpen pitcher and a full time DH, they have not addressed what the fans perceive as the biggest holes. 3B, SS, LF and CF. With the exception of Vargas at third, they feel the other 3 positions need serious upgrades. They are not really willing to trust the judgement of those at the helm.
Well, that is their right. Many times, in the past, I put myself in the GM’s shoes and really thought I could do better. But it really doesn’t get much better than those we have had leading the team for the last several years. This run is unprecedented in Dodger history. No fans of Dodger baseball have experienced this much success or winning in that many seasons. Oh, the Brooklyn teams of the late 40’s and 50’s were very good and went to the World Series seven times. It was easier to get there back then. Just win the league. They won two of those, 55, 59. They played the Yankees six of those seven. They would then win 2 more in the early sixties. Then there was a drought from 67-80 before they finally won in 81.
Dave Roberts takes much of the heat for their losses in both the playoffs, and the World Series. But his teams, in much tougher circumstances, have won 100 or more games four times. Alston only did it twice. Lasorda, once. They also have played in more meaningful postseason games than either of those two managers did. If you take away the tainted 2017 loss, Roberts has won one and lost one. I readily admit, he has made some moves in the postseason that have had me shaking my head in wonder. But there is no denying his ability to get his team into the playoffs, and you have to get there to have a chance. For the haters and doubters, you are stuck with the guy. He knows how to manage egos. And he is the perfect frontman for this team. And the only opinion that matters in this case is the opinion of his employers. If they feel he has lost his clubhouse, he will be gone.
Ultimately, the onus is on those who are on the field. If you are in the game, you need to perform to the best of your ability. One of the best SS in the league made a crucial error in a pivotable game, and it ended up costing them the game. He makes that play, they are out of the inning and no one scores. Just like Merkle’s boner in the World Series, it led to a loss in a game they should have won. That is simply not on the manager.
I just think we should take a little time, let the team go through spring training, get some idea of what they have on the field, and then make some judgements. Lasorda used to say, he needed at least one third of the season to evaluate what kind of team he had. I think we should give AF the benefit of the doubt that he knows what he is doing before we implode and say the whole thing is messed up.
The above photo is an actual photo of Michael! đ
Yep, Sure is.
Bear: thanks for this great post. You said it very well. As Iâve said in the past, we Dodgers fans need to really be thankful for rooting for an incredible organization which wins on a very consistent basis. It is very easy to think we know better without the skill set the professionals have and certainly without the information they have.
I have had a philosophy in business (which was consistently communicated to my employees). If you donât have faith in those above you to make good decisions, you should seek employment elsewhere. I kind of feel the same about rooting for a sports team.
The powers to be of the Dodgers have made good decisions most of the time. That really is all one can expect since no one is right all the time (with the possible exception of B&P). I, for one, believe in the powers to be and will continue to be a faithful fan until I leave this earth.
Thanks Jay, I have really trying to think the entire offseason through. Yes, it was extremely frustrating when they seemed to be connected with every free agent out there. I would have liked to see JT finish his career as a Dodger, but quite frankly, he has not been the same player the last couple of years. Especially in the playoffs. His clutch bat was absent without leave against the Braves in 21 and the Padres in 22. I knew Trea would command a huge deal, and I also knew, the guy really wanted to go back to the East Coast. None of the others, even Bellinger, really made me feel bad. Belli especially needs a change of scenery. With little pressure, he should do well in Chicago.
I’ve never seen that blue Santa before. Love it!
I found that on twitter if I remember correctly.
Actually, back in the day when I used to get Xmas cards from the Dodgers, I got one like that!
From the Wall Street Journal in an article written by a woman (Lindsey Adler):
The Los Angeles Dodgers have until Friday to decide whether or not to add pitcher Trevor Bauer back to their 40-man roster after his MLB-record 194-game suspension under baseballâs policy on domestic violence and sexual assault.
Itâs the kind of situation that has often caused sports teams to cut ties with an athlete. And yet the Dodgers have unusual incentives to keep Bauer. Chief among them is the idea that they could be on the hook for paying Bauer to pitch for a competitor willing to take a chance on him.
…what Bauer did or didnât do to receive the gameâs longest suspension to date under the domestic violence policy isnât the only factor in the Dodgersâ decision.
At the center of their conundrum is a contract that once stood to make Bauer the highest-paid player in his sport. Under that contract, the Dodgers have to pay Bauer $22.5 million this year whether he plays for them, sits on their bench or plays for a rival.
The case throws another harsh spotlight on sports franchisesâ response to transgressions by talented players, and what teams are willing to endure in criticism in order to prevail in competition.
Last year the Cleveland Brownsâ quarterback Deshaun Watson received a giant contract and was acquired from the Houston Texans after a grand jury in Texas said he wouldnât be charged criminally over allegations that he had engaged in various forms of sexual misconduct with massage therapists. The National Football League and Watson subsequently reached a settlement that suspended him for 11 games. Now, Watson is back leading the team.
Under a policy agreed to by MLB and the playersâ association, and the nature of guaranteed contracts in baseball, a club cannot release a player without pay after he serves a suspension. This would be considered double punishment.
The Dodgers can release Bauer without consequence if they fulfill their contractual obligations to him. Doing so would also mean potentially paying him to pitch against them, if another team wants to take him on their roster.
That is because, if the Dodgers release Bauer with pay, another team would need to pay as little as the $720,000 MLB minimum salary to sign him. Under a ânon-duplicationâ provision in the league and playersâ association collective bargaining agreement, Bauerâs additional contract with another major-league team wouldnât net him additional money; insteadâassuming another club signs him for less than the $22.5 million he is owed by the Dodgersâhis compensation with a new team would simply offset the amount of money he receives from Los Angeles.
The Dodgers will have to consider the reaction from their clubhouse, business partners, and fans if they choose to carry Bauer on the roster. But they will also be making their decision aware that other teams have signed players facing an off-the-field firestorm, and weathered it for the sake of an on-field advantage.
Indeed, the Dodgers themselves have previously seen their competitors benefit from their decision not to carry a player accused of domestic violence. In late 2015, the Dodgers traded to acquire closer Aroldis Chapman from the Cincinnati Reds but backed out when a reporter obtained a police report detailing a domestic dispute between Chapman and his then-girlfriend that had occurred earlier that year.
Chapman received the first-ever suspension under the domestic violence policyâ30 gamesâand the Yankees signed him at a damaged-goods discount for the 2016 season. The Yankees then flipped Chapman to the Cubs at the trade deadline and received a top prospect in return.
Chapman went on to help win the World Series with the Cubs and then return to New York the next year in free agency. At the end of this chain of events, the Cubs got a ring, the Yankees got a prospect and a closer, and the Dodgers watched from home.
...âIf you want to judge me for engaging in rough sex with a woman that I hardly knew, thatâs OK,â Bauer said. âIn evaluating my life over the recent months, itâs clear that Iâve made some poor choices, particularly in regards to the people Iâve chosen to associate with. But I am not the person that this woman, her lawyers and certain members of the media have painted me to be.â
It’s a very long article and there is lot more to it, but the stage is being set for his return to the Dodgers.
Old Bear, as you have stated in your theme of this writing, we should not EXPECT Trevor Bauer to be on the Dodger 40 man roster as of tomorrow January 6th and will be released to find another team willing to absorb the aggravation and PR distraction he will bring.
I disagree Andrew and here is why, I# just releasing him and letting him pitch for another team while you pay him is not only fiscally irresponsible, it is stupid. 2# There have been numerous reports that a majority of the fans have changed their minds and want him back, so the PR backlash is not going to be as bad as some think it will be 3#. He served his suspension. He was never tried or convicted of anything. The man has every right to pursue his career. 4# They can add him, check on trade value, and get rid of him later if they need to. No reason to just make a rash decision.
#5. âHe who is without sin can cast the first stoneâ
Exactamundo
I expect a 22M virtue signal tomorrow. How many Billions are the Dodgers worth??? Think about how the LA Times, ESPN, and the Athletic will have an orgasm over the Dodgers decision. No point in arguing about it anymore. We’ll know tomorrow.
F ’em all.
Let he who is without sin….
Umm…. My hope is that most of us here have never been accused of what TB has been accused of, by three women.
Or even by one woman.
Just a hunch.
We’ll see what happens with TB.
Maybe Dodgers will bring him back and sign Chapman and then rebrand themselves as the Dodger Black-and-Blue…. The Dark Dodgers…. Bad Boys of Summer… Dog Collar Night promotion!… What other bad boys could AF sign? Just win, baby….
Maybe if you had Bauer’s bank account, someone would have accused you?
Very interesting piece Michael. Well, I’m guilty. I had extremely high expectations when the 2022 regular season ended.
After last season regular season, I expected them to make it to the World Series. I also believed that they had learned from the previous year when they ran out of gas attempting to catch the Giants and then spent all they had to win the WC game and NLDS. It seemed that all the ducks were lined up in 2022. They were well rested, essentially injury free and they faced an opponent that they owned in the NLCS. What I underestimated was the week off.
I read recently on another site that there was speculation that it was Justin Turner that kept the team from mutinying against Roberts because of some of his past tactical decisions made in post season play. I’m not sure if that is true, (actually I doubt it is), but we are about to see how influential JT’s leadership was. This is the first off-season where multiple key components have left. It’ll be a real interesting season to see if they continue to flourish with such major changes.
Honestly, I don’t know what to expect this year, but I do trust this front office. Their track record is unparalleled and to expect a WS title every year with the way the playoff format is set up is unrealistic. They are there each post season, every year. What else can you ask for. Point to me another organization (that doesn’t cheat) that can say the same.
Lasorda and Alston had some down years after successful strings. They survived with their jobs intact. Usually on one-year contract extensions. I don’t see Roberts surviving even one down season in today’s baseball world , even after unprecedented success with multiple 100+ win seasons that neither Alston or Lasorda experienced.
A lot to digest over the last few weeks. Evan, send me an email so I can add your email addy to my list. I just do not want to post over something you might have ready. Get it from Mark.
Essentially injury free?? Not even close to that.
Its amazing they did as well as they did with the amount of injuries they did have.
Yes I expect them to be good, very good in 23. After they make the playoffs its get hot for an 11-15 game stretch…
Matt, yeah, I see your point. Beuhler out, Hudson out, gonsolin and Treinen wounded. But my memory was thinking back to the previous year when Muncy went down in game # 162.
For the playoffs I felt that the guys were well rested and prepped for the post season run. At least the position player starters were.
Hi Evan
I touched on the players not being happy with Roberts a while back, and wondered if they privately bemoaned the fact that they had him at the wheel this past historical run, but was roundly told that idea was nonsense.
Reading your post above totally resonates with me – Iâm certain that there are a few players that realise how close to a dynasty they have been, but unfortunately they will forever be the âNearly Menâ, similar to the Braves of the 90s, and much of the blame lies at Docâs feet. Yes I know players have to execute, but so does the decision maker, and he didnât at the most critical times.
There are too many examples of his over management or simple poor judgment in the shorter Post Season series to it not be a major factor. He hasnât even learned from his previous disastrous meddling. This year was no exception.
Not pitching our second best Pitcher (Anderson) in game 2 to really put the Padres under the pump was a huge mistake, compounded by then taking him out whilst pitching the game of his life when he finally gave him a belated shot.
You canât tell me the players donât discuss the strategies and decisions that cost them their places in history. He is very lucky to still be in his job, and Iâm disappointed in Turner that he didnât support his teammates – they had a right to feel pissed, and things may have played out differently had the players risen up??
Michael, once again a great read. Personally Iâm really looking forward to seeing how the Rookies perform, and am glad weâve moved on from JT and Cody. Things had to change. Trea is the biggest loss, but I agree that he wonât age well with his game based on speed. That contract wonât wear well.
Thanks for all the effort you put in Michael.
See how the first half goes and go shopping at the Deadline if needed.
Lots of teams with big aspirations ahead of 23, should be fun.
Also very much Looking forward to welcoming Trevor back tomorrow.
Poor man has been through the wringer and has (much to everyoneâs disappointment) handled himself with great dignity.
Great article Bear!
There is still a lot of time before the regular season starts, and the outlook can still change.
The Bauer decision will have a potential positive impact on the pitching depth if they keep him, or on the rest of the roster if they can trade him. The spring training will be very interesting to see how the young players and the new veterans perform. And the competition is still making moves as well.
At this point, the Dodgers look competitive, but not vastly superior to the 5 other top NL teams: Mets, Braves, Padres, Phillies, and Cardinals. In the division, the Padres have added Soto, Hader, Tatis, and Boegaerts in the last 6 months! The Dodgers have lost Trea, JT, Bellinger, Buehler and Anderson, while only adding Thor and JDM. Padres appear to have a more talented roster than the Dodgers right now. I still think Dodgers can win the division, but it will likely be a dogfight.
My current expectations for this season are to test and develop the young players, reset the luxury tax, make necessary moves at the trade deadline, make the playoffs, and make a strong playoff run. Instead of having a 20% chance to win the WS like the past 5 years, the Dodgers probably have about a 12% chance to win it all this year. And it is most important how the team is playing in October, not in March.
Dodgers Nation
Dodgers Rumors: LA Reportedly Has 2-Year Offer On Table to Aroldis Chapman
Jeff Snider
Jan 5
Aroldis Chapman was once the most dominant relief pitcher in baseball, with a fastball that routinely hit triple digits and a devastating slider. The Dodgers almost traded for Chapman after the 2015 season, but reports of a domestic violence incident (for which he was later suspended 30 games) caused them to back out of the deal.
According to a report from former big-leaguer Carlos Baerga, though, the Dodgers might be in on Chapman seven years after refusing to trade for him.
View this post on Instagram
A post shared by Carlos Baerga (@carlosbaerga09)
In English, Baerga’s post says: “Aroldis Chapman Rumored To Be Offered A 2-Year Deal By The Los Angeles Dodgers & San Diego Padres.”
If we remove his off-field history, Chapman fits well with what we know about the Dodgers. He used to be great and still has good stuff, so he seems like the kind of guy Los Angeles might take on as a project.
But the ownership group in L.A. is the same group that put the kibosh on the trade seven years ago, and with everything going on regarding the Trevor Bauer situation, it’s hard to see them choosing now to bring in Chapman. I guess they could be planning to keep Bauer and figure, “People are gonna be mad anyway, let’s lump it all together and get it over with. Could we hire the guy who cheated for the Red Sox while we’re at it?”
Baerga’s track record is mixed on breaking news like this. Just yesterday, he was the first to report Boston’s extension with Rafael Devers, but he had Aaron Judge going to the Giants earlier this offseason. And with two teams listed here, even if he’s right it doesn’t mean he’s coming to Los Angeles.
Chapman’s strikeout rate was way down in 2022, and his walk rate has been astronomically high the last two seasons. We’re a few years removed from his major dominance, but it sure would be interesting to see what the Dodgers School of Pitchcraft and Wizardry could do with him.
He lost his closer’s role, his FB velo dropped a full tick from the prior year, he’s 34 and declining, he’s a head case (as if Bauer wasn’t enough), signing him will put the team over the CBT threshold.
The Dodgers coaching staff can’t miraculously reverse the aging process.
No.
Yes, I think we need to temper expectations. I expect the Padres to win the division, but the Dodgers to make the playoffs. How you finish matters more than how you start–as last season’s collapse illustrated.
So many question marks.
I think the pitching is strong…. if the pitchers stay healthy. (A big if.) Still wish AF had kept Tyler Anderson, though.
On offense, I see three safe bets in Freddie, Mookie and Will, who are also very solid on defense.
So I try to be optimistic about the other six spots in the lineup.
Bounce-back seasons from Max, JD Martinez and Chris Taylor would help a great deal. Let’s also hope that Lux can bounce back to his early 2022 performance.
Fingers crossed that Miguel Vargas and Outman prove they belong. Will we be OK with league-average production? (Maybe so–if Max and JD get back on track.)
As for the defense, I have a lot of confidence in both Outman and Trayce in center or left. Speedy, athletic, and the don’t need any on-the-job training. The OF should be fine, especially if AF is able to add a proven veteran like Reynolds or McCutcheon. (I’ve read that AF would rather add an outfielder by trade. But based on recent stats, a Trayce/McCutcheon platoon could produce .900 OPS from left field. Hey, .800 would be OK.)
In the infield, we’ll learn whether Lux can deliver. If not, it can be fixed in midseason. I am optimistic that Vargas will be OK at third.
There are always injuries, so we may get a good look at Busch and Amaya at some point–and also Stone, Miller, Pepiot, Grove, Jackson….
I think you can count on Lux to have a decent season at the plate. He might not have Trea’s power, but he has close to his speed and he could end up a doubles machine. I think Muncy is going to rebound and be closer to the 35-homer guy he was than the sub .200 hitter he was last year The injury is more than a year and a half ago, so he should be a lot healthier. The only real question marks are what they can expect from the kids. And can any of the minor league signings they have made in reality, make the team. I think Thompson can be closer to a .240 hitter with 15 or more homers, so he should be a decent platoon option.
Well if we call him Jack and switch his number to â24â do you think we can sneak Bauer back into the lineup?
Sorry, 24 is retired for a manager named Alston.
My prediction this year as far as team stats as of right now:
The team pitching will be in the top 3 in the important team stats in all of baseball. Not just the national league only. To me the most important team pitching stats are runs per game allowed and OPS against. The Dodgers last year were #1 and #2 in those stats. They may be slightly worse or about the same.
The team batting will NOT be #1 in the most important stats in all of baseball. Not just the national league only (probably number 3 but maybe number 4) To me the important stats are the same as pitching, runs scored per game and OPS. The Dodgers last year were #1 and #1 in those stats.
Just my opinion:
With all the bad talking about Justin Turner, I don’t think Vargas is going to match Turner’s stats from last year, at best he will but I don’t think so.
Leftfield is going to be worse than last year. Take a look at Trace Thompson’s OPS as a Dodger last year, second best. I think he’s going to regress A LOT this year and I don’t think Taylor is going to improve enough from last year to make up the difference. If Thompson platoons with Outman in CF and Taylor handles LF, same results either way between the 2 outfield positions.
Martinez will not match Trea Turner’s stats.
Freeman will regress some, but still put up great stats.
Smith will improve some, but get less at bats with Martinez as the DH, and Barnes will be Barnes. So catching production will be worse.
Outman will exceed Belinger’s stats if given the chance but there’s the platoon possibility with Thompson. Doc will probably look at the small sample that Outman had in AAA against LHP but maybe not.
Muncy will improve some.
Betts will be Betts.
Lux will be Lux.
The team will be good enough to make the playoffs, but will be in a fight to win the division and might have to settle for a wild card spot.
My 2 cents AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW.
Martinez is not replacing Trea Turner; he is basically replacing JT as a full time DH. I think he will hit more homers that Trea did and drive in a lot of runs. You are as always entitled to your opinion, but I think that Thompson will benefit from an entire spring with the coaches. He has a lot of power. Taylor, if over his injuries, should be better. Lux will hit anywhere from .250 to .300. He has that kind of bat. Smith will hit in the .260 range again, and Barnes will occasionally surprise. Outman and Vargas are talented. But what the team might get from either of them is an unknown. As for Muncy, he should be back at full strength, and that means a .250 average and close to 30 home runs.
Then who is Vargas replacing if Martinez is replacing J Turner? T Turner? If so that’s a big decline in production as an adjustment in my post.
I like the signing of Martinez but he’s getting older and is 35 right now.
No way Thompson puts up the numbers as last year. He had his career year last year. Take a look at his career stats besides last year.
You’re agreeing with me on Taylor and Lux.
You’re more optimistic than me on Muncy.
I’m a little more optimistic about Smith.
Vargas is replacing the tandem they used at third last year. JT, Muncy, Eddy Alvarez, Alberto, Rios, McKinstry all saw time at third last season. Muncy actually started more games there than Turner, 84 to 66 so your argument about Martinez does not hold water. I give a crap less about Thompson’s prior numbers because unlike you, I understand how his stats were affected by the back problems he suffered when he was with the Dodgers the first time. You can guess all you like, but the guy worked his ass off to get back to the major leagues. His work last year showed that. He suffered the back injury in 2016. It was the main reason his stats over the next couple of years were so bad. It stayed that way until 2021 when he was able to play 92 games in the minors. Last year was the first time since 2015 that he was able to play more than 100 combined games. Have a little faith in the mans desire and work ethic and all the time he put in to simply get back to the majors. Martinez is reunited with the batting coach who turned his career around. I have seen plenty of 35-year-old players have great seasons. Do not discount someone just because they are past their prime. Turner spent 62 games as the DH. The trio of Muncy, Smith and Rios spent 65 games combined as the DH. Martinez is going to get the majority of those starts now. Thompson also had the 12th highest WAR on the team. Only Betts, Freeman, Trea Turner, Smith, Muncy and Lux had higher WAR’s among the position players. JT’s was exactly the same 2.0
Those other guys barely saw 3B. I’m talking about who played the most.
How are you replacing Muncy with Vargas when Muncy is still on the team?
3 guys left they are Bellinger, T Turner, J Turner. You replace them with the new guys Martinez, Vargas, Outman. Outman replaces Bellinger. Take your pick with the other guys.
You’re going with your emotions with Thompson I’m going with logic.
I’ve seen plenty of guys reunited with their former batting coach and it didn’t do a damn thing. I’ve seen plenty of guys decline at the age of 35.
I hope eveybody improves and the Dodgers win 150 games.
As usual you missed the point entirely. Vargas is penciled in to be the regular third baseman He is replacing Muncy and Turner who between them played the majority of the games at third. Muncy is penciled in to start at second, and Lux at SS. Martinez is the primary DH, replacing the tandem of Muncy and Turner who started the majority of the games at that position. Outman is penciled in but is no lock to be the starting center fielder. I am not going with my emotions concerning Thompson. I never let emotion come into play when evaluating a player. Just like I have no favorites anymore. I am giving a talented player the benefit of being healthy and getting to be with the team from spring training on. I never let my emotions dictate something like that. What I stated is fact and your logic is yours alone and I disagree. I would bet I have seen a lot more baseball than you. Also, it is not like Martinez stunk up the joint last season. He had a good year, and he is delighted to be back with Von Scoyoc. Therefore, I give him the benefit of the doubt also. The guy is a pure hitter. He will be fine.
Thompson .268 BA .901 OPS, you think he’s going to come close or match or exceed that?
You’re going position by position. Then Lux replaces T Turner. Muncy replaces Lux, Vargas replacing Muncy. How the hell can you compare offense production when your replacing mutiple guys who are still on the team with other guys that are still on the team? In that scenario Muncy replaces someone but also gets replaced by someone. What?
I didn’t say Martinez sucked last year and I also said I liked his signing, what I said is that I don’t think he will match T Turner’s production last year. But you are replacing J Turner with him and what are you doing with Vargas replacing Muncy who is still on the team? Are you talking defense because I’m talking offense.
Like I said they are replacing multiple players. You are the one making a big deal out of semantics. Vargas becomes the regular third baseman, replacing the two players who played there the most. You expect Vargas to match the production of both players? I do not. But he is the starting third baseman now, at least on paper. Muncy, like you said, replaces Lux who replaces Turner. I expect Muncy to provide more power at second than Lux did and I do not expect Lux to come close to meeting the offensive output of Turner. Martinez does not have to match Trea’s production, but I think he will hit more homers than Turner did last year (20). Martinez had 17. He probably won’t match Turner’s 100 RBI’s either, but hitting fourth, he should have plenty of opportunities with an offense that is better than Boston’s was last year. No, I do not expect Thompson to OPS over .900 again, but I am willing to see what he can do. I am replacing JT and Muncy’s offense at DH with Martinez. It is not that complicated. Muncy sucked last season, but everyone expects some sort of rebound from him. You are reading what I am writing but not comprehending what is said.
SOLD: $0.02!
It’s worth less.
Not going to argue with him anymore. He has his opinion and I am never going to agree with it.
DiGiovanna:
Several rumors floating around today about the #Dodgers being interested in veteran closer Aroldis Chapman, one claiming team has offered him a two-year deal. Neither is true. Two sources familiar with team’s thinking say LA is not involved in the bidding for the embattled LHP.
I read that also, makes sense to me. They are trying to get under the CBT ceiling, not go over it.
Dodgers signed catcher, David Freitas and assigned him to AAA Oklahoma City. It is a minor league deal.
Good article Bear. Yes, we’ve been spoiled. And yes, trust Andrew to put together a successful team until he doesn’t.
The Division as a whole might be better, but that’s hard to tell with the DBacks, Giants and Rockies this year. Did they do anything significant? It really comes down to the Padres. Last year was a weird one. You don’t normally see a team win every single series against the number 2 team in the division. The Padres were a better team after the deadline and still couldn’t beat us until, you know.
So, are the Padres better this year than last year? They don’t have much of a rotation outside of Darvish, Musgrove and Snell and no one ready to come and help from a depleted minor league system. They lost a few bullpen pieces.
The lineup is going to be weird with them, top heavy for sure. Machado, Soto and Boegarts are sure things. Cronenworth is like CT3 with less K’s and he’s playing 1B now. Kim moves from SS to 2B, and hasn’t shown he can hit. Catching tandem doesn’t provide much offense. Matt Carpenter sucked for 3 years, and had a rebound year at age 36. Is he going to be good again, or was it some short-porch Yankees magic propping up his success? Tatis had two wrist surgeries and didn’t get his shoulder fixed. Is he going to be the same? Trent Grisham (Their Bellinger) is still in CF?
Does this look like a lineup that’s going to kill us?
Tatis Jr. LF
Soto RF
Machado 3B
Boegarts SS
Cronenworth 1B
Carpenter DH
Kim 2B
Nola C
Grisham CF
Very legit at the top, then two solid hitters, then three pretty bad ones.
We have two elite hitters in Mookie and Freeman. We have 3 very good hitters after than in Smith, Muncy, JDM. Then we have Lux, who was much better than Cronenworth for much of last season and CT3 who’s bascially the same as Cronenworth. Then we have Outman, Vargas, Heyward and Thompson to choose from to fill out the lineup.
Just because I’m bored, let’s use Lifetime OPS and last year to compare.
Freeman 895/918 vs Tatis 965/DNP – No doubt Tatis is better if healthy, but is he? Look what happened to Muncy and Belli.
Betts 888/873 vs Soto 950/853 – Soto is better in his short career, Last year Betts was better
JDM 872/789 vs Machado 834/897 – JDM is much better in a long career, Machado had a season much better than usual.
Smith 857/808 vs Bogaerts 814/833 – Smith’s wort year is about the same Bogaert’s career average.
Muncy 828/713 vs Carpenter 825/1.139 Carpenter and Muncy had outlier years in opposite directions. Muncy is much better if you throw out the outliers.
CT3 765/677 vs Cronenworth 769/722 Same guy, expect CT3 to get back to normal
Thompson 737/860 vs Nola 731/650 lol – Even with all the injuries throughout his career, he’s still better than Nola and Grisham
Lux 712/745 vs Grisham 711/625 Lux is on the rise.
Vargas SSS vs Kim 678/708 Do you really think Vargas will be worse than Kim?
Offense is about the same, we have a good chance of being better if Outman and Vargas are as good as CT3.
Our Pitching and Bullpen are better overall. At least, that’s how I see it.
” Tatis had two wrist surgeries and didnât get his shoulder fixed. ”
Yes he did. Dr. El Attrache did the shoulder surgery on September 6th.
Must have missed that.
Fangraphs dropped Eric Longenhagen’s report on the Dodgers farm system. Overall, it’s very well done. There are a couple of surprises with Josue De Paula at #7 and River Ryan at #10.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/los-angeles-dodgers-top-51-prospects-2023/#comments
Fangraphs Guys are different. I don’t mean that in a bad way, but they like to be different and I am OK with that. I just have to use my eyes and common sense… and sometimes, they seem to lack in that department. Still, they are thought-provoking! This is an absolute gem: “I think the results speak for themselvesâthey have the development team to make it workâbut I am particularly impressed by the pitching. I think theyâve cracked the code on finding pitchers with serious issues that they know how to improve, and they take them in such large quantities that they seem to pan out. And they seem to realize that the lessons of TINSTAAPP is that the answer is to get even more prospects, and that âriskyâ pitching prospects arenât quite that much more risky than the safer ones because of injury attrition.”
In the past what did the Dodgers do to rebuild a team they usually bring up three rookie stars that play out of this world and become the face of the Dodgers. It all started when Cey Garvey Lopes Russell all came up the same year. Then remember the Guerrero Marshall Brock Hershisser and then it was going to be Mondesi Piazza McGriff now I think there hoping for Lux Vargas Outman Busch. Will it work nobody knows because most teams don’t bring in three rookies an start them all in the same year but the Dodgers seem to have luck in bringing up three stars in one year. And for years we hear it was going to be Bellinger Puig Hernandez Reks the new faces of the Dodgers hmm nope they got that wrong. I still say they need and established leftfielder and center fielder and being in Outman slowly this year. And as I look at teams I still say a deal with the Brewers for Yelich Adames and another player could help both teams get a veteran in Leftfield to help Outman in CF being shadowed by a guy that knows major league hitting and Adames can hit good to and field so you put him a SS and lux at second Muncy and Vargas at third and muncy and lux at second. Now you ask who the dodgers should trade to get that trade to happen trade Thompson Busch and a pitcher and don’t we have a top Catcher or short stop that would play it n the majors rather then be down in triple AAA. So would the lineup of Betts
Adames
Freeman
Martinez
Muncy
Yelich
Smith
Outman
Lux
Sounds better this lineup. Rather then having three rookies in the line up. I think that is a good lineup.
A few flaws in your analysis. A. Lopes, Garvey, Russell and Cey were not rookies when they first came together in 74. Each already had some time in the majors. With Russell getting there first. B. Brock was not all that great and was supplanted by Franklin Stubbs. Guererro was not originally a Dodger, he was acquired in a trade with the Indians. And he got to the majors 4 years before Brock. Hershiser did not join the starting rotation until 1984. C. McGriff was almost 40 when he joined the Dodgers in 2004, so your timeline is way skewed. It was Mondesi, Piazza, Karros, Nomo and Hollandsworth who were the 5 rookies who got the award 5 years in a row. Before that the 4 who won were Sizemore, Sutcliffe, Valenzuela and Steve Howe. Milwaukee is not going to trade Adames before the deadline if they trade him at all. Yelich is well past his prime and no longer the player he was in 2019. You only have 8 players in that lineup you posted. Forgot the DH no doubt. Bellinger was good until he was not. Hernandez came from another organization and was never considered a top prospect. He also was much better as a super sub than a regular player. I never saw any analyst even suggest that Reks was a top 100 prospect. He was never mentioned in the same breath with any of those guys. As for Puig, he was an international signing, a very talented but troubled also. The Dodgers have several top prospects in the minors who catch, up to and including Diego Cartaya who is probably a year away. Rushing is also one of their top prospects. 6 of their top 50 prospects are catchers.
I like Adames, but he is a #7 – #9 Hitter.
Yelich is owed $176 Million until 2029 and has hit 35 Home Runs IN THE PAST 3 YEARS!
They didn’t re-sign Cody Bellinger for just $17 Million, and he hit 41 HR over the past three seasons.
Why acquire a guy who might be worse than that for $176 Million? What are you smoking?
Adames struck out to end the 2020 World Series.
Drugs are bad!
Okay Mark my point was the Dodgers have always had alot of rookies but never brought them all up at once. And put them in the starting lineup they brought in guys to help those rookies. That’s my point. I was making. No drugs needed just I know Dodger baseball I was there at Dodgers stadium when the bat broke and stuck into Yeagers neck. I was there when Jack Clark ran into Scioscia at home plate. And he held on to the ball and he should have replaced Lasorda as manager. I was there when a rookie named Clayton Kershaw made his first start as a Dodger. I thought Puig was amazing as a Rookie the next Bo Jackson that kid was so strong and when he wakes up throwing tje baseball you could hear it qizz threw the air and pop in the mit every time. So take that my seat is fifteen rows up from the Dodgers dugout.
Very true, but, this is a different ownership, a different front office and an offseason where the player turnover is larger than it has ever been. I remember all those things you saw, but my memory goes back further. Wills was a rookie at age 26 and played his first full season in 1960. That is the one year I can remember multiple rookies getting playing time and two of them, Tommy Davis and Frank Howard were in the starting lineup. Also debuting that season were Willie Davis, (20), Charlie Smith, (22), Bob Aspromonte, (22), Ron Fairly, (21), Doug Camilli, (23) Phil Ortega, (20) and Jim Golden, (24). Davis and Fairly would have long careers with the Dodgers. All the others would be traded. Tommy Davis is the last player on the Dodgers to win a batting title while a Dodger and he won two in a row.
Look at a veteran leftfielder around the league. Then tell me who would be good. And help Outman as the opening day center fielder. You want Taylor or Thompson who over swing and try to hit it out every time. Or a Yelich Betts teaching him what it takes to be in the majors? Wasn’t Yelich in the running for MYP. Oh yeah he was. Didn’t he win a batting title and isn’t he a hometown boy. The isn’t that kind of like Freeman. That’s who the Dodgers try to bring home to teach the young rookies. Just like. Fred McGriff Eddie Murray Kirk Gibson they always had a veteran to teach the rooks what it takes. And if you look at my lineup there were nine players and a DH. My point was that’s how the Dodgers have some in the past with rookies and you even said they being them in slowly. Or they go get someone to teach the Rookie
Lux 2B
Betts RF
Freeman 1B
Martinez DH
Smith. C
Muncy 3B
Yelich LF
Adamme SS
Outman CF
Now isn’t that a Dodgers lineup that we are used to.
That’s better, but I don’t want Yelich at $176 Million.
I do like your tenacity, however. Keep it up.
And Yelich has not been close to the same player in 4 years. The Dodgers are not going to trade for him and add that salary. End of discussion. Adames is not going to be traded until the deadline IF HE IS TRADED AT ALL. Milwaukee has said this over and over. As for Thompson, he may overswing, and sometimes he K’s a lot. But so does Taylor, so did Bellinger. But Thompson hit .256 last year, .268 with the Dodgers. His OPS was .901. His OPS+ was 145. He struck out 84 times in 204 at bats which is way too high. But he made up for it with stellar defense and some pop hitting 13 homers in those 204 at bats. That is one every 15 at bats or so. He stole 4 bases and did not get caught. Yelich hasn’t been close to a batting title since 2019 when he and Bellinger were the best in the league. Over the last three years he has hit .209, .246, and .252. He has hit 12, 9 and 14 homers. He also struck out 162 times last season. Not even close to being the player Freeman is, and no thanks, I do not want a 176 million dollar rock around the Dodgers neck.
I guess I wanted you to say who would you bring in to teach Outman the ropes. If you could give us a name of and outfielder like a Kirk Gibson or a Shawn Green is there a outfielder out there where the Dodgers would say we need that guy. And people would be like wow they got him. What about a team like Seattle or Baltimore or Kansas City. I mean I don’t watch to many of there games. Don’t any teams have a good outfielder. That’s better then Taylor and Thompson in Leftfield.
There are some good outfielders on other teams, the problem lies with who you have to give up in trade. As for Thompson, most teams would be very happy with an outfielder who defends like he does, has his kind of raw power, and hits .260 plus. Can he do it again? Who knows. But the teams you mentioned, ok, Seattle has 10 outfielders on their roster, None of them have the wow factor you mentioned. Teoscar Hernandez, who they just got from Toronto is the most experienced. But they are not going to trade him. Dodgers were interested in Jared Kelenic. But he is just a kid and plays CF. Royals most experienced outfielder is Michael A Taylor, another center fielder, but not someone with the wow factor either. Cedric Mullins is the veteran on the Orioles, but he is not that kind of player either. Most of the rest of their players are young. That is why most want Reynolds. But the Dodgers are not going to trade for him at this point in time because the Pirates keep insisting he is not on the market. Their best bet for a vet who brings something to the table is on the free agent market. And the best ones are gone. McCutcheon is a very good clubhouse guy and could tutor Outman some since he played CF most of his time in Pittsburgh. There have been rumors that the Dodgers are very interested in Cardinals CF, Dylan Carlson. But at this point, I think we all are just going to have to have some patience and wait and see what transpires between now and opening day. Who knows, Heyward might rediscover his stroke. He was a decent hitter and a top flite defender before his injuries. Stranger things have happened. Taylor and Thompson’s value comes from their defense. Outman is also a plus defender. Whether any of them hit with any consistency is the biggest question.
Here are the free agent left fielders left on the market. AJ Pollock, Tommy Pham, David Peralta, Juricson Profar, Corey Dickerson, Tyler Naquin, Ramiel Tapia, Alex Dickerson, Chad Pinder, and McCutcheon. I would take Pollock over Yelich, he hits lefty’s pretty good. McCutcheon is a solid vet. All they are going to cost you is money, no prospects, no MLB ready players.
What about that kid with the Marlins 1B Cooper. They have him at first base and I thought he said he played outfield in the minors. So wouldn’t that be a good young guy. With some pop. That has started a couple of years with the Marlins.
The other first baseman that you could make a LF if you want pop in there bat is at Arizona 1B Christian Walker.
And last I would like to see them either get AJ Pollack McCutchen or Chad Ponder because they all have playoff experiences. And they wouldn’t have to start every game platoon with Taylor, and then Thompson platoons with Outman. And you still have Heyward. What your getting is a decent bench of experienced hitters to pinch hit. Like in a playoff game. Would you rather have McCutchen go up to pinch hit or a Michael Busch. I would go with the vet . Because in playoff time those guys can turn it on like Joc used to do and Kiki.
Cooper is no kid, he is 32 years old. He is injury prone, never played more than 119 games in any season. Does not have that much power. Last time, and the only time he hit homers in double figures was four years ago when he hit 15. He only hit 9 last season. He also struck out 119 times in 414 at bats. Thompson was better than he was last year. Cooper has played exactly 81 games in the outfield in his career. Not exactly the veteran you want tutoring your young outfielder. Christian Walker is no outfielder. He has played one game out there in his career. Walker is also 32 years old. Pollock or McCutcheon would be perfect mentors for Outman, but again, you are forgetting that the Dodgers are right up against the CBT cap. Kike is a decent hitter overall in the playoffs, but when he was a Dodger, he was not as good as he was in the three series he played with the Red Sox. He had one huge game in the 2017 playoffs against the Cubs. But in 22 NLCS games he hit only .205. He hit better in the NLDS with a .250 mark. In 17 World Series games his BA is .184. His only homer came against Boston in 2018. Although Joc Pederson is known for Joctober, his stats are not all that. He is a career .256 hitter in the postseason with 12 homers and 29 RBI’s. But he also struck out a third of the time. If Michael Busch can hit, he will get his chances. Right now the Dodgers have less than 100,000 dollars to play with. Today we will know more when their decision is made about Bauer. But if they simply release him, they get no salary relief. I understand how you feel, but you are grasping at straws that are not there. Chad Pinder is a free agent, but he is by no means an upgrade over Thompson or Taylor. Their defense is far superior to him. The only way you are going to know just how good those kids can be is to let them play. And this season, they are going to get the chance.
Have balls Mark Walter.