The Dodgers are coming off of one of the all-time great seasons in the history of Major League Baseball. Only the 1906 Cubs had a season in the Senior Circuit with more wins and only 4 teams have ever matched or exceeded 111 wins. There’s no doubt about it, last year’s team was great, tainted only by an early postseason exit against a team they dominated all season.
That’s not to say that even if the entire team came back this season, they would be able to match that win total. It’s just not going to happen. Baseball is too random to permit this and 111 wins is in a sense, a statistical anomaly.
Last season, the Dodgers finished 10 games ahead of the 101 win New York Mets and just like the Dodgers, those Amazing Mets had their postseason cut short by the Pesky Padres, who won just 89 games during the regular season. A strange finish to a historic season indeed. It seemed that all year the Padres couldn’t find a winning streak and the Phillies were even worse, with just 87 wins while finishing just 12 games over 500. This is now all in the past and like every year we begin to look forward.
A recent update to the Las Vegas odds has the Dodgers NOT favored to win the World Series with the New York Mets taking the top spot in the National League. How can this happen? What did the Mets do this offseason to leapfrog a team that finished 10 games ahead of them in the standings?
This offseason, the Mets spent a ton of money and have a record payroll as a result. I guess Vegas like that. After all, the Dodgers have been payroll leaders the last couple of years and they also had the most favorable Vegas odds. I can see a correlation. Looking through their transactions page, they didn’t make a lot of additions. They replaced deGrom with Verlander and on health alone, that should help their win total. But, without going into how many of his starts they won and lost when he was on the IL, it’s hard to quantify the effect of this swap. Maybe they’re assuming the Carlos Correa deal is done and he’s going to be that much better than Eduardo Escobar. Overall, those are improvements, do they equal 10 wins? Mostly, the Mets spent a lot of money bringing back a lot of their own guys. Overspending on closer Edwin Diaz and bringing back Ottovino and Nimmo while losing other bullpen fixtures in Trevor Williams, Joely Rodríguez and Trevor May. The Mets also retooled their rotation swapping deGrom, Bassitt and Walker for Verlander, Senga and Quintana.
Like the Dodgers, it looks like they moved players in and out, but roughly came up with the same net result, kind of. The rotation has different faces, but the net result could be slightly better, or slightly worse. The bullpen is probably slightly worse, and Correa is probably an upgrade over Escobar if he 1) gets signed and 2) if he can remain healthy.
The Dodgers, on the other hand, had a relatively quiet offseason and reduced payroll significantly. The exact opposite of the Mets. But, the Dodgers didn’t have so many key pieces to replace like the Mets either. The Dodgers could have just paid another 30 something million, stayed over the cap, and then they would have only had to replace Trea Turner to be relatively even to last year’s squad. Instead, they chose to let Cody and Justin walk in addition to Trea. They went on to replace Justin with a true “Nelson Cruz” type DH and seemingly handed over CF to Outman and 3B to Vargas. You’ll see why shortly. The pitching staff largely remains the same as last season. In fact, there may be some addition by subtraction in the pen by not bringing back Kimbrel and Price. In the rotation, they’re basically replacing Heaney and Anderson with Thor and Ginger Thor. I think that’s an upgrade, but time will ultimately tell. And we aren’t quite done yet as Bauer will either be a Cy Young winner added back to a deep rotation, or will be a trade chip to acquire some additional talent. Surely, one of the best GM’s will get some value for a Cy Young winner playing on a 30% discount? He isn’t dumb enough to just cut him, is he?
I’m going to go against the grain here. I have my feet dug into the sand. I believe in the plan for the 2023 Dodgers. They may not win 111 games, but they’re going to be just as good or possibly better than last year’s team when all is said and done. Here’s why…
The Projections
I wanted to put a little bit of analysis together on who we lost and who we’re replacing them with while looking at the projections from Baseball America and my own thoughts on how they might fare in the upcoming year using OPS as the offensive stat to compare these outcomes. I’m only comparing 4 players in the lineup as I strongly feel Betts, Freeman, Smith and Lux are mostly constants. In that, they all should have similar numbers as they had last season. The other position is Left Field, which was a hodgepodge of multiple players last season, and is looking about the same this year. There were also simply too many players that shared the position last year to get a sum of total production from that position. More on that later.
Gone are Trea Turner, Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger. Also, Max Muncy played semi-full time during an Injury hampered season. This is the production we had from this quartet last year compared to the production that Baseball America projects for their likely replacements (And Max) this year.
This doesn’t look too bad. We’re just 8 OPS points under how they performed as group last season. But, as you can see, BR isn’t giving the replacements a whole lot of love. I mean, I can accept James Outman’s OPS total when you don’t really have a starting point for a rookie that’s just coming into the league. But, JDM, Miguel and Muncy all seem to have been skimmed off the top to me.
Let’s start with JD Martinez who played through a knee injury last season. It was his worst full season of his career and he still managed to hit 274/341/448/790 with 16 homers and 43 doubles in 139 games. At the end of June and before the injury, he slashed 313/384/498/882. Is it realistic to pencil him in with an OPS that’s over 100 points lower than the first half of last season? If we split the difference, his OPS for next season would be 829 which is still a lot lower that his healthy 2021 season when he posted an 867. I’ll be conservative here and go with 829 as a realistic number.
Next up, Max Muncy. Another player that played while recovering from injury last season. Another year removed, he should be back to his old self, right? Max has played just 4 full seasons in his career, including last season. 2020 was the pandemic season and before he arrived with the Dodgers, he played in two partial seasons with the A’s. In the three full seasons where he was healthy, his lowest OPS was 889. In 2021 he was at 895. Let’s split the difference again. I’m being extremely conservative here, because there’s really no reason he can’t get back to this level as a 32 year old. But, nonetheless, by spitting the difference, we can reasonably assume an almost worse case scenario for Max and that OPS number would be 804. This is very low for a guy that put up 973, 889, 895 in his three healthy full seasons since coming to the Dodgers.
Lastly, because I don’t think that Outman’s projection is unreasonable, I’ll move on to Vargas. He’s a bat first prospect that’s never hit below 300 in a full season in the minors. If that isn’t impressive enough, the Dodgers have been aggressive with his development and have moved him up each level where he’s played against completion that was about 2 years older on average at each stop. He had a rough showing in his first cup of coffee which doesn’t mean anything, but apparently Baseball America thinks is does. How else would you explain projecting a Belli-esque OPS for a guy that OPS’d 901 in a full season at AAA where he had a 303 batting average and a 404 On Base Percentage? Since the season ended, he’s been at the stadium every day working towards next season. I think he’s going be jacked compared to last year and he’s really going to break out. But, I’ll try to be a little more analytical for this exercise.
Last season Steven Kwan, LF, Cleveland Guardians; Brendan Donovan, UTIL, St. Louis Cardinals; and Michael Harris II, CF, Atlanta Braves were all Rookie of the year finalists. None were on the Top 100 Prospect lists to start the season and all of them helped their respective teams reach the playoffs. Here’s their particulars…
Steven Kwan – Age 24 298/373/400/772 AAA Prior Season 311/398/505/903
Michael Harris – Age 21 297/339/514/853 AA Prior Season 305/372/506/878
Brendan Donovan – Age 25 281/394/379/773 AAA Prior Season 288/389/496/885
Compared to
Miguel Vargas – Age 22 AAA 304/404/511/915
As you can see, Miguel Vargas had a better year in AAA than all three of these players and is the same kind of hitter – High Average and High OBP, except all three of these ROY candidates are the speedy types that turn outs into hits because of their speed. I repeat, none of them were on any top 100 lists while Vargas is ranked 41 overall late last season and they all turned in solid to very good seasons. This isn’t to say that Vargas will definitely do better. But for now, let’s allow him to match the worst of them and use Steven Kwan’s OPS as a realistic OPS projection for Vargas.
This is where we wind up…
That’s more like it and low and behold, we’re actually a much better offensive team than we were last year. Without considering that Jayson Heyward and CT3 are probably going to improve those left field totals as well. It’s no wonder that AF made the moves he made while recognizing a perfect opportunity to reset the cap.
Are you still worried about next season? I’m not. Are the Mets really better? Hell no! The Dodgers are going to roll to another division title next season and if you can get favorable betting odds from one of those 5 out of 4 people that can’t do math, do it! Because we are just as likely to do even better than last year as we are to do worse. Just for giggles and kicks. Let’s look at the reasonable scenario where Muncy and Martinez get back to 2021 production and Vargas and Outman are 800 OPS prospects.
Now we’re talking! I’m not willing to bet my life on these numbers, but I honestly believe these are within reach. Outman was a beast last year. His OPS at AAA was over 100 points higher than those ROY finalists and he’s close to the same age as two of them. He’s also a beast on defense in CF. I’m not certain that I’m all in on him, mostly because of the K rate and his caveman swing from college. But, he might just be the hitting version of Tony Gonsolin. Small Northern California School, nobody thought much of the draft slot, but wow what a pick that was. However, only a moron would believe that what he did in his initial cup of coffee is a predictor of his future success. It’s much too small of a sample to mean anything.
Vargas is a pure hitter, just like the three ROY finalists that I listed. He’s younger than two of them and has posted better numbers in the minors while being younger at each level and having to adjust to a new country and working off his the pudgy body that he had when he first signed. He doesn’t have the benefit of great speed like the others do, but put up similar to better numbers than all three of them. Now, he’s working out like a beast at Dodger stadium. Most assume he’s working on his glove, but if you’re at the stadium, you’re working at all facets of the game and working with strength and conditioning coaches as well. I would seriously take the over on an 800 OPS with Vargas for the upcoming season. Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger blasted past 800 with ease it their first seasons, why can’t Vargas when he put up such great numbers in the minors?
With Max, I see him as having the same odds of surpassing his 2021 numbers as he does coming up short. Sandwiched in-between JDM and Will Smith is going to take pressure off of him and he’s going to start feeling comfortable in the box again. His 858 OPS over the last two months of the season indicates he’s back on the road to recovery. A normal offseason workout routine will help. Let’s hope he’s past the lingering elbow issues that put him behind the eight ball last year.
JDM is one of the best pure hitters in the majors. I believe he was a top 5 hitter in all of baseball for the six years run from 2014 to 2019. He’s reunited with his favorite hitting coach and one of his best buddies from the Red Sox in Mookie Betts. He might just have another 900+ OPS season left in him batting between Freeman and Muncy.
I honestly think this offense will be better than last year’s. The anti-shift, pitch clock, and larger bases are going to change baseball significantly. But, with all things being equal, I think this team has improved the Starting Pitching, Bullpen and Offense while taking a slight hit on defense. It’s going to be a fun year if the rule changes don’t completely change the game.
I agree with most of this and hope you are right on the rest.
Billy McKinney and Tree Trunks Calhoun signed minor-league deals with the Yankees. Remember the fans who mocked the Dodgers when they signed McKinney?
There was a Miggy Vargas sighting at the Ravine. Among the coaches working with him is Dino Ebel. He has been there and working out the entire offseason. As far as I can tell, he is the only player there… right now! He is HUNGRY!
B&P: This is an extremely well thought out and reasonable analysis. I am in agreement that this team has a chance (and probably will be) to be better than last years. I also agree that 111 wins again is probably not reachable. MLB.com has an article by Anthony Castrovince where he makes 7 predictions. He picks us to not win the west but to beat the Yankees in the WS.
I am personally more excited about this upcoming season than I have been in a long time. I live in the Phoenix area, not too far from Camelback Ranch. If anyone is coming in for spring training, let me know. I would love to meet some of you.
Not going to make it there Jay, but I would love to go again. Last time I was there, Manny was still with the team and Torre was the manager. Great place to watch a game. I got Monday’s autograph.
Great analysis! These numbers sure paint a different picture than what the journalists and emotion led fans see. Plus another difference is that all this OPS is more evenly spread out through the lineup instead of being so top heavy like last yr.
There’s every reason to hope this will be another great year!
FYI–Mets were 89-0 when leading entering the 9th inning last year so if they overpayed Diaz you can see why they did.
So 2 weeks ago, when I was in Vegas, the over under for Dodgers 2023 wins at the Venetian was 101.5.
For a team not expected to be the World Series front runner, I’d say that’s still some serious respect for the Dodgers.
I am looking forward to seeing and rooting for Outman in CF.
I think Vargas will hit in the MLB but am anxious about his defense.
I think Lux will have a great year and his defense at short won’t take away from it.
I am least comfortable with Muncy at second base and would like to see how the lineup would perform with him batting 9th. He walks a lot and that drives up his OBP and last year he looked at too many hittable pitches to justify him hitting in a traditional RBI spot in the lineup.
Thompson had reverse splits so he might be a platoon candidate with Taylor in LF. That would still give Taylor innings at short and second base as needed.
Pitching and defense might not be as good as the offense. It will be fun to find out until it isn’t.
Thanks for taking the time to put up a great Post B&P.
To add that Muncy has more speed than he appears, you may have a valid point. I thought the 9 hole worked out pretty well having someone with a low SO rate hast season. Time and again has shown simply that buying FAs ain’t the best way to field a team. It takes some FAs but you have to utilize players that having a good farm makes. Great players aren’t born, they’re made. That’s what Lasorda always said. And that was Branch Rickey’s thinking when he brought the farm system into existence. No worries!
B&P, a logical and well thought analysis for the upcoming season. I agree with most of your conclusions, The Mets have such an old starting staff and it’s inevitable that injuries will cause a derailment in their season. To quote Mike Tyson “everyone has a plan until they get hit in the face”. I feel the Mets are going to get multiple hits to “the face”.
The Padres will self destruct at some point. I look at the Braves and maybe the Phils as the Dodgers main roadblock to the world series.
I’m really looking forward to all these Dodger prospects having a real shot at becoming solid major league players either with the Dodgers or with another team via trades. It should be a fun season. And, I’m OK if they should fall short of the playoffs in exchange to find out if all these rookies can be successful major league players. But, I don’t see that happening unless the injury bug hits the team hard.
Happy New Year to everyone. All good health to all and your families for 2023.
Carry on.
I still think they need a veteran leftfielder and have Outman in center field between the two veterans. Someone like Ozuna or Pollack or Reynolds or O’Neil a guy that the rookie can go to and he has Betts in right field. The infield of Vargas Lux Muncy Freeman Smith I prefer Muncy at third base. And Lux scares me with his throws fro short. Would rather have Muncy 3b trade for a short stop how about Elvis Andrus Lux then at 2b and then Freeman 1b and Smith at catcher. Or you put Vargas at third and play Muncy at third who he hits better lefties or righties and you still have Barnes Taylor Thompson Heyward and Busch JD Martinez to fill in and give guys rest maybe Freeman doesn’t play every day msybemuncy okay first base some and Betts when he gets a day off you have Heyward play. That’s my opinion the dodgers always have veterans with rookies think leftfielder is the key piece missing and do u want Taylor Thompson Busch as your options or a Tyler O’Neil or Bryan Reynolds who you can see be the leftfielder for years.
Ozuna will never be a Dodger. Pollock, although he gets on hot streaks now and then is injury prone, which is why he was traded. O’Neill or Reynolds are going to cost you a boatload of prospects, even if dealt at the deadline. A Taylor, Thompson platoon in left is not the worst way to go. Heyward has to make the team first. But all three are very good defensively. O’Neill is a free agent after 2025. Reynolds, 2026 when he will be 32 years old. As for Lux at SS. Many Dodger fans are preoccupied with the yips he experienced when he first came up and played there. In fact, the kid has played exactly 68 games at the major league level at the position. Way too few to judge how he is going to play being over there every day. As great of a player as Trea Turner is, he made 16 errors at short last season. Most of them on very catchable balls and a few on errant or misguided throws to first. His error in the series against the Padres opened the door for their win in game 2. I think we all should take a wait and see attitude with Lux. He might turn out to be a lot better than we expect.
Why not keep lux at second and get a legit leftfielder and shortstop for say a Muncy you still would have your Taylor and Thompson to come in late innings but we need good bats like Freeman and Betts lux strikeouts Taylor strikes out and Thompson strikes out if they could get a Tyler O’Neil heck yeah I’d take that he would be your leftfielder every day with Betts Freeman Lux and smith you have Outman in center and if he gets in a slide you put Taylor or Thompson out there but you keep lux at second and get the dodgers a shortstop to compete for world series if you want third place then keep what you got they should have signed Hangier to play Leftfield but now he’s with the Giants. AJ pollack would be good to be a mentor and s pinch hitter and play left center or right. You think not having a pollack Taylor Freeman Martinez Betts lead this team in clubhouse wouldn’t be good heck yeah Justin turner I’d gone this is Freeman and Betts clubhouse now they get players that play like they do hit and field well. That’s not Taylor Thompson and Busch to put your hopes on you ho and get a player that you wasn’t to play with would b a good clubhouse guy. To bad joc pederson I’d in black and orange now even he would be good to start out in left with Outman in center.
Bradley, Tyler O’Neil struck out 103 times in 96 games last season. 168 times in 138 games the year before. If he played a whole season, he would strike out between 173 and 197 times.
Do some homework, and use some punctuation.
Irem A. Trading Muncy weakens their lefthanded power bats. It would be Freeman and nothing else. Item B. Signing a free agent outfielder like Pollock or anyone else at this point not knowing exactly how the Bauer situation is going to play out, puts them over the CBT limit, and they are trying to get under the limit. Doubtful the Cardinals, or the Pirates for that matter, would just want Muncy in trade. The clubhouse has plenty of veteran leadership with Martinez, Freeman, and Betts. Kershaw gives the staff that veteran presence. Joc Pederson struck out more than Lux did in fewer at bats. He had his highest BA of his career. But his defense leaves a lot to be desired. Pollock has not played an injury free season in years. Lux’s fielding pct at second, is barely better than his pct at SS. Now besides adding a left fielder, they need a SS too? Who do you suggest? Adames is not being traded. Padres have 3, but the chances they would trade their most expendable SS, Kim, to the Dodgers are slim and non-existent. The two best free agent SS left on the market are both over 30. Iglesias and Elvis Andrus. Yes, Thompson and Taylor K a lot. Taylor is better suited as the super sub. He should not and will not be in the lineup every day. Thompson won’t be out there every day either. I expect little from Busch. He might not even make the roster out of spring training. I expect Muncy to be the everyday 2nd baseman and Lux at SS. Depending on the kind of spring he has, Jason Heyward is a far superior defender to Pederson, and he can put up numbers if healthy. What they need is a solid platoon out there and the players they have under contract are certainly capable of doing that. Leave the brainstorming to the professionals. I am pretty sure AF has some more moves under his hat, and he has a much better handle on their plan than any of us do.
What about the A’s? Don’t they have good outfielders? Wouldn’t that be a team LA could trade with and get some legit starting outfielder. Which then that player could play with Outman and Betts in the outfield everyday. The center fielder there started with a L for the last name. Couldn’t the Dodgers do that trade with the A’s? And then sign Elvis Andrus who has played awhile in the majors for a legit short stop and free agent. Then Lux stays at second base. Is that better punctuation whoever said that?
Ramon Laureano? No way, he played left more than he did center, he struck out 104 times in 346 at bats. Andrus is almost 35 years old. His defense is solid, and he brings at least some offense to the party. But he made 14 million last year. The Dodgers right now are only 100,000 under the CBT tax. Iglesias is cheaper, but still would not bring very much offense. Lux has never played enough games at SS at the MLB level for anyone to judge him. He might turn out to be perfect for the spot. You move Lux to second, what are you going to do with Muncy, and they need that power from the left side. Martinez is going to get the bulk of the reps at DH. They will have some flexibility to make moves if, A. Bauer opts out, B, they can trade him and eat a portion of his salary. But, if they outright release him, they are on the hook for 23.5 million. Not a good move financially. Their best hope is that he were to opt out. Or he stays with the team and their starting rotation gets that much better. As far as trading for an outfielder, or signing a free agent SS, they are in no hurry to do so. There will be players added on minor league contracts, but don’t expect any major moves. There is at this point zero reason to panic or to do that, and if there is one thing I have learned about Friedman, is that he rarely makes knee jerk decisions and he is never in any kind of panic mode. Take this to the bank, the Dodgers are going to give Lux, Vargas, Thompson, Heyward, Zimmer, Taylor and Duggar, every opportunity this spring to prove their worth to the team. Laureano and Pache are the only A’s outfielders with any kind of MLB experience, one of the players they have listed as an outfielder, Diaz, is a career infielder.
The Dodgers are not going over the cap.
Great analysis B&P. Thx. Can’t wait to see the kids play!
Me too, I’m very excited. So many nearly ready prospects.
Excellent job, B&P!! However, you were even better the other day when you took Bluto to the woodshed regarding Bauer and checked his ass!!! No, not checked….checkmated!! All he had to say was, “joke?” LMFAO!!! Keep up the good work, brother! Happy New Year, y’all!!
VIVA AZUL!!
Everyone can see that Bluto’s a woketard. Funny, that a guy who reps the name of the woman beating cartoon character is accusing someone else of the same thing. Those types have no self-awareness. They just think what MSNBC tells them to.
He always claimed it was Bluto as played by John Belushi. Who was a hilarious misogynistic character himself!
Good analysis BP.
I’ve had other Dodger fans I know come up to me over the past few weeks and ask me my thoughts on the lack of moves this off-season. I point out one simple fact.
You hoard prospects for one of two reasons. To trade them or play them. AF has turned down who knows how many offers for the guys we have in the system that are big league ready. He obviously believes it’s time to play them. I remember the outright anger from fans that we didn’t trade Seager, Bellinger, Urias, Walker… ect ect for whatever big name was up on the trading block. For years! Big names that most of those fans couldn’t even remember. Largely because many of those players were traded at peak value and have since become much less valuable players.
AF has traded prospects for big names. Last I checked those prospects we did trade haven’t done a thing. Yordan Alvarez is the exception, but nobody saw that coming. The prospects we gave up for Machado and Darvish have (just from the top of my head) produced exactly one serviceable MLB player. Dean Kremer. And he has had only one average season as a starter. AF has a pretty damn good track record for trading marginal prospects and keeping the best for ourselves. And his ability to identify low cost “projects” has been very productive. CT3, Muncy, Heaney, JT, Tyler Anderson… those were are extremely low risk or zero risk acquisitions that were laughed at as “bottom feeding” by many fans at the time.
I also feel quite confident where we are at. And if the current projects don’t work out or our young guys underperform, AF has shown his willingness to make a move.
My only issue with this off-season is Bauer. And that wasn’t something the Dodgers had any control over. Even with his reduced salary we have zero room as far as resetting the luxury tax. And I believe that is important for the next two off seasons. And shame on MLB for creating that sh*t show.
I’ll go on the record and say we likely have to play Bauer. It will require being willing to deal with the inevitable blow back and the guaranteed rage of the Twitter mobs, but I don’t believe there are any scenarios where we get any value back for him and releasing him solves nothing in terms of lux tax. As long as there aren’t major issues caused in the clubhouse, I see that as the only smart move. If that is how this plays out, I just hope Bauer shuts his trap and finds some humility. Regardless of how much he thinks he was wronged.
Frankly, I am shocked that he has been silent. Maybe a Tsunami is coming?
I think public perception has shifted on Bauer… just like it will shift that Musk is a Dumbass!
If the Dodgers release him, I have already prepared a Beautiful Los Angeles Karen’s Logo!
I think you’re correct about the general public. But that never stops the Twitter mob. I’m sure Molly “let’s dance on Koby’s daughters grave” Knight has already purchased torches in bulk.
I’ve learned to never underestimate what a very small number of self riotous blowhards can accomplish in todays media environment.
I believe that the worm will turn. I find it hilarious that people are slamming Elon Musk, when it is obvious to me that he is willing to lose billions (temporarily) to re-establish Free Speech from these IDIOT MORONS!
In the Future, this shall be called the IDIOT-MORON ERA LED BY LUNATICS!
Elon Musk is an Idiot! Oh yeah, what color is your rocketship? 😉
What did Knight have to say about Kobe Bryant and/or his death and/or daughter?
Genuinely curious.
She tweeted an old article about Kobe’s rape allegation a couple hours after he and his daughter died. She was blasted and almost immediately deleted the Tweet and never spoke of it again.
Thx. I remember some reporter did that. I didn’t realize it was Knight.
Hold on! Was it Knight … or was it Felicia Sonmez? Maybe both?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felicia_Sonmez
JT had been with Dodgers longer than AF.
Very impressive. Well thought out.
Not really!
I’m watching, for a second time, Glass Onion.
It’s a ton of fun!
“It’s a dangerous thing to mistake speaking without thought for speaking the truth.”
Started “White Noise”–great book but don’t care for the director. Made it past the first five minutes so it’s a start.
I’m half way through too.
Fucking love that book, I think I like the movie.
I think Driver and Gerwig, while great, are too young for those roles.
Cheadle is amazing
Glass Onion is awesome. White Noise with Michael Keaton was a pretty decent movie. It is kind of creepy, but not bad. Top Gun Maverick is one of the best movies I have ever seen.
I actually liked White Noise 2 much better than the original. It had Nathan Fillion as the lead. It got very little publicity. And was a very different plot than the original. It has a great ending.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/white_noise_2
I enjoyed it for the most part. I think you just have to shut off your political discernment antenna and just be entertained. I’ve read reviews that characterize it as an allegory of Elon Musk’s general evilness. Who knows?
I got Sam Bankman Fried.
Excellent writeup BP. I have never been a Bauer fan, but let him pitch now and see where it goes. The main negative is he will take a place of one of the Kids. Can’t wait for Spring Training, gonna’ be a fun year.
Happy New Year everyone !!
Great article B&P and Happy New Year!
Very logical analysis and I agree with almost all of it.
The only slight difference of opinion is on Outman.
He had a great year in 2022, and has the tools to be a good MLB player. But I think it is a stretch to assume he will be a full time MLB CF in 2023. While he deserves the chance, I see him as more of a platoon player who shares time in the OF with Taylor, Thompson, and others. My concern with Outman is that he has a much smaller track record of hitting well in the minors than Vargas, even though he has been older than most of his competition. He also did not play CF in OKC so his ability to be a MLB CF is uncertain. And he hit considerably worse against LHP compared to RHP in 2022, with 100 lower OBP and 350 lower OPS against lefties. His BA was 236 and OPS was 739 against LHP in 2022. I may be wrong on Outman, and he may be a great CF who can hit MLB lefties, but I think CT3 will likely have more at bats and a bigger impact in 2023 than Outman. My understanding is that CT3 had nagging injuries most of 2022 that hampered his season, and I expect him to bounce back this year.
Also, depending on the Bauer resolution, I could see the Dodgers adding a lower priced free agent outfielder like Pollock, McCutchen Duvall, or Bradley jr to help stabilize the outfield.
But as the roster stands, the Dodgers should be able to compete with the Mets, Padres, Phillies and Braves for the NL title.
I see a likely platoon in LF with Heyward and CT3 and in CF with Outman and Trayce. The results are the same. Somewhere between 750-800 OPS at both positions. I have the same concerns about Outman, but man he can rake. He played RF in AAA because he has a stronger arm that Deluca who’s also a great CF. If you have two guys that can play CF, one of them has to play somewhere else.
Good points. Nice to have at least four options in LF and CF to start spring training. Not to mention a few long shots like Zimmer and Duggar.
At this point there’s nobody good on the free agent market and I don’t want the Dodgers to trade away prospects especially pitching propects because the Dodgers have a history of developing better pitchers than hitters. And that’s what it will take to get someone good.
There is concern here about Outman’s defense in CF and hitting against LHP. I don’t get concerned about defense unless someone clearly sucks on defense so I won’t go there. I think Outman will do fine against LHP he’s going to surprise some.
Where I’m concerned is if they bring up too many hitting prospects. It looks like Vargas and Outman are going to get their shot. That’s enough because I don’t think there are any more hitting prospects that are ready. Busch is close though.
4 of the top 50 still out there. Not sure if they sign or not, Iglesias is a pretty decent SS. Andrus has a lot of experience, and hit close to .250. But I doubt the Dodgers are in on either of them.
Nobody thought Belli was ready, then he was. Same thing with the Brave’s rookie Harris. He skipped AAA entirely due to injuries. You never know.
I was just about the only one who proclaimed Belli ready. It was a source of great discussion (argument).
We got some snow here in Canon City tonight. First of the new year. Love it.
Josh Fuentes, Arenado’s cousin, signed to a minor league deal by the Braves.
Anthony Castrovince says Dodgers win it all in 23.
They will score 200 runs less and allow 100 more. If you can make your analysis work with those parameters then you have a case. I think you need to take off your Dodger goggles and realize they will be in the last wild card fight.
… and you KNOW this, how?
Consider what Andy McCullough said today in The Athletic:
There are several explanations for why the 111-win Dodgers crashed out of the playoffs in only four games to San Diego. The simplest answer is the team batted 2-for-26 with runners in scoring position in the final three games. With three or four more hits in those situations, the team likely advances to face the Phillies in the NLCS. The margin for error in October is vanishingly thin. But in the aftermath of the upset, Dodgers players and officials have conceded they may not have made the necessary adjustments to match San Diego. At the Winter Meetings, manager Dave Roberts admitted he felt the Padres operated with more urgency. “I will say that you look at that dugout versus our dugout, there was more intensity (with San Diego),” he said. There was a thought that the Dodgers coasted into October and kept on coasting. That is unlikely to happen again in 2023, not with San Diego loading up once more while the Dodgers mostly stayed quiet this winter. For the first time in quite some time, the group may not even enter the season as the favorites to win the National League West.
If anything, the Dodger’s pitching may be even better than in 2022, and JDM is a huge upgrade over “Old Man Can’t Hit a Fastball” Turner. I’ll take the bet for $100! “They will score 200 runs less and allow 100 more.” I say NO WAY!
JT hit at a .900 ops clip after the all star break. … Did the pitchers stop throwing fastballs?
I’ve answered your question several times now. You know the answer, or you have Alzheimers. He hit less fastballs over 95 than Belli. That’s all you need to remember.
I think most folks here are more optimistic than I am.
Looks to me like Lux will get his shot to prove he’s a legit major league SS, so I don’t expect that the Dodgers will sign Iglesias or Andrus. Best case scenario is that Lux rewards the brass’s confidence with stellar play, living up to the hype when he came up. (His minor numbers were much better than Vargas’s.)
If Lux doesn’t deliver, a change can come at midseason. If the team’s offense is strong, AF could get a glove-first guy like Jorge Mateo. Maybe Jake Amaya gets a chance. The Dodgers strength, I think, will be the pitching–and great SS makes every pitcher better. (Also helpful if the guy at 3B isn’t so great.)
If Vargas hits like he did in the minors–and that is not a small if–obviously that would be great. Will Vargas get an 800 OPS? I would take the under on that. But really, a 750 OPS wouldn’t be that bad for a rookie.
I also doubt that Outman would reach the 800 threshold–but again, 750 would be nice. Mark once suggested Outman would be like Joc Pedersen. I’ll take it! If he’s a league-average hitter, it’s an upgrade over what Belli produced the last two years.
I think the lineup only has three sure things: Mookie, Freddie and Will. Max, JD and Lux are more iffy to me.
In addition to monitoring the rookies and Lux’s progress at SS, part of the fun this season will be monitoring the recently ex-Dodgers.
–Will Belli return to form?
–Will good old JT wind up outperforming JD Martinez? (JD is three years younger, but JT had the much the better second half in 2022.)
MLB.com’s first power rankings placed the Dodgers 7th, behind the Phils.
That seems about right to me. They should make the playoffs. And unlike 2022, they should finish stronger than they started.
And yet the Red Sox saw fit to sign good ol’ JT or two years….
As for last season, from TrueBlue LA:
After June 30, “Turner was among the best hitters in baseball, slashing .349/.419/.549 in his last 59 games, his 174 wRC+ trailing only Aaron Judge and Albert Pujols (!!) among major league hitters.”
Gee, if Miguel Vargas had those numbers, we’d be touting him for the HOF.
On Fanduel today:
RUMOR: Some Dodgers totally fine playing with Trevor Bauer
Trevor Bauer may soon be back in major league baseball. After he became eligible for the 2023 season due to a decreased suspension, speculation followed about whether he would return to his previous team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Apparently, some members of the team are cool with it.
Baseball blogger Dan Clark tried to show that the Dodgers would actually welcome Bauer back to the team. Via a tweet (with its comments disabled), he claimed that he had reached out to 10 current Dodgers players last week and that four had gotten back to him to say that they don’t have concerns with bringing Bauer back to the team.
Clark – who smugly declared that a handful of Dodgers players being cool with Bauer on the team was indicative of Bauer’s mistreatment — didn’t give any hints as to who the anonymous players were. It was reported recently that Los Angeles plans to release Bauer due to concerns over adding him to the clubhouse. This was the reported stance from most Dodgers players upon the initial suspension as well.
4 out of 10 ain’t bad for a batting average!
Ain’t great for a betting average.
So, how do you read this Bluto? He reached out to 10 and got 4 positive responses. Or all responded and only 4 of them were positive? I don’t see him mention any negative responses.
No clue how to read it. To me it’s useless content without the type of context you mention!
That said, we seem to be at the point of the off-season where 96.573647% of content is useless
The Four that aren’t married, that’s who.
I think there are more than just four on the 40-man roster who are not married.
4 out of the ten, OB! He talked to ten players.
Not a large enough contingent to make any judgements whatsoever. I think it is up to management and not the players. He served his suspension, he has as much right as anyone to resume his career.
Poor reading comprehension Vengeur. He did not say all responded. He mentioned reaching out to 10 and 4 responded that they would like him back. You don’t think there were any no comments in there?
You are right. Only four out of ten responded.( And those four responded affirmativly).
Friedman has just announced he’s going to put it to a player vote as to whether Bauer should be brought back. Every player on the current 26 man roster gets one vote and the results must then be made official by the Electoral College.
There will be no voting by mail. A polling place has been set up in the Dodger Stadium parking lot.
McCourt will be charging for entrance to the lot.
In case of a tie vote, the tie breaker will be cast by Machado.
Wow, no vote by mail? Isn’t that racist?
“Trevor Bauer may soon be back in major league baseball. After he became eligible for the 2023 season due to a decreased suspension, speculation followed about whether he would return to his previous team, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Apparently, some members of the team are cool with it.
Baseball blogger Dan Clark TRIED to show that the Dodgers would actually welcome Bauer back to the team. Via a tweet (WITH ITS COMMENTS DISABLED), he CLAIMED that he had reached out to 10 current Dodgers players last week and that four had gotten back to him to say that they don’t have concerns with bringing Bauer back to the team.
Clark – who SMUGLY DECLEARED that a handful of Dodgers players being cool with Bauer on the team was indicative of Bauer’s mistreatment — didn’t give any hints as to who the anonymous players were. IT WAS REPORTED RECENTLY THAT THE DODGERS PLAN TO RELEASE BAUER due to concerns over adding him to the clubhouse. THIS WAS THE REPORTED STANCE FROM MOST DODGER PLAYERS UPON THE INITIAL SUSPENSION AS WELL”
Everything I put in all caps is either a distortion or a falsehood. That should be an instant disqualifier in taking anything this person writes seriously in any way. It’s not worth the digital ink it was written in.
There really hasn’t been much comment at all from Dodgers or MLB players in general regarding the Bauer mess. And report by Clark (whoever he is) takes care to shield the identity of the players who are “cool” with Bauer playing.
(The term “cool” can be tricky here. Some players might be cool toward Bauer as opposed to cool with.)
The paucity of on-the-record comment has me thinking the MLB and the player’s union have strongly counseled players in how they express themselves about the issue. The general drift, it seems, is “don’t go there.”
And yes, Bauer seems to be more restrained than in the past. If he gets back in action, either with the Dodgers or another team, we’ll see how long that lasts.
I’m excited about the transition to the young players coming up. I’m also looking forward to more regular season competition from the Pads. It’s going to be a fun and interesting season, even if the D’s ONLY win 95 games. ( Being a Dodger fan is ROUGH!) As for Bauer, it’s tick tick tock, the mouse ran up the clock. Bye bye Bauer.
I knew an Olympic boxer that proudly proclaimed to me that he boxed better on television. Some players play better and some the opposite. Gladly soon to be seen. Just maybe the rookies can all answer the call. The stage is set and it’s the biggest one.
Just like pitchers pick up a couple of mph at Dodger Stadium vs OK. Adrenaline kicks in.
USC-Tulane in the 4th quarter. SC leads 42-30
From what I hear Dodgers and Pirates in serious discussions about Bryan Reynolds. That right there would be the move to make and put him out in Leftfield with Outman in Center and Betts in Rightfield. The Pirates want Pepiot Miller and Pages I say the Dodgers due that deal. That outfield is then set for the next five years. You have you infeils of Vargas at 3rd Lux SS Muncy 2B and Freeman 1B. Smith and Barnes at Catcher. Your bench you have Martinez Taylor Thompson Hernandez Heyward and maybe Dugger if he does better then Thompson in spring training. I put Hernandez in there. Because Roberts likes a player that can play anywhere in the infield. Still that bench seems better then last year’s.
Are you hearing this in your head?
If not, from where? Sources would be great!
It all stems from here:
https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/12/31/yankees-bryan-reynolds-rumors-favorite-mariners-dodgers/
https://www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-rumors-top-pitching-prospect-would-need-to-be-in-any-bryan-reynolds-trade-rks97
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10058934-dodgers-trade-rumors-bryan-reynolds-alek-thomas-jarred-kelenic-among-of-targets
I think what Bradley said is about right because that is what I predicted a few weeks ago it would take to get Reynolds: “ The Pirates want Pepiot Miller and Pages”
TWO THINGS:
1. He is not a great CFer; and
2. That is a lot to pay.
When I hear “The Dodgers are in Serious Discussions…” I know it’s a damn lie. Friedman does not play it like that.
I said in my post a little bit up from here, that it’s going to take pitching prospects to get someone good and there you have it, Pepiot and Miller. I have no problem with Pages in a trade, but the other 2 I’d like the Dodgers to keep them.
Cartaya and Pages for Reynolds if the Pirates would do it.
Cartaya is going nowhere.
Why do you say Cartaya is going nowhere? He’s declined each year and a higher league he has advanced to just like Pages.
Not remotely true. He’s the unquestioned #1 in a stacked system. It’s hard to find a negative word about him, including his 80 makeup.
What’s not remotely true? What I said about him declining? Go look at his stats. Unless you are talking about his defense/catching skills. I don’t really care about that unless he sucks at it, and he doesn’t.
I don’t know what channel you are watching but saying “he has declined every year” is Great Comedy!
He has declined. Maybe I should have said from 2021 to 2022 and A ball to A+ ball instead of the wording I used.
2021 A ball .298 BA 1.023 OPS
2022 A ball .260 BA .955 OPS
2022 A+ ball .251 BA .856 OPS
Unless you’re talking about his defense/catching skills. Same thing goes for Pages.
Cartaya will be the Face of the Dodgers by 2024. Super Star. Hold me to it.
We’ve already established that Eric doesn’t do research on injuries. Maybe we can add prospects to that list as well.
This was Cartaya’s slash line before his wrist injury on Jul 3 last year, combined A and A+. He reinjured it on July 31. It was slightly higher than his A Ball stats, meaning he actually improved at A+ before the injury. You’ll also notice that is on-base percentage was higher than 2021, showing that pitchers were mostly pitching around him explaining the slight decrease in OPS.
.283/.421/.566/.987
This was his OPS after his wrist injury.
.205/.326/.385/.711
Can’t only look at OPS Eric.
Bulldogs
Where are you getting AA and AAA. Cartaya has only reached A+.
Quit telling me I can’t only look at OPS, I LISTED BATTING AVERAGE TOO. So what the hell are you talking about, what do you want me to look at. IF YOU’RE GOING TO TELL ME TO STOP LOOKING AT SOMETHING THEN PROVIDE SOMETHING ELSE THAT YOU THINK IS BETTER otherwise why the hell are you telling me to stop looking at something. YOU NEVER SHARE YOUR ALTERNATIVE TO A SLASH LINE.
And what explains his slight decreased OPS is that his batting average decreased.
Fixed.
Look at injury reports. Look at scouting reports.
Not on your life are they trading those three kids for a player they control for only a couple of years. And I too would love to know what voices in your head are telling you this. There is not a whisper of any contact between the Dodgers and Giants on any media.
We just witnessed a big offense still needs a defense to win. Enjoy the new conference USC.
I think they have one more year in the Pac-12. Cannot leave until the 24 season. Worst last 5 minutes of a football game I have ever seen.
Sorry OldBear48, Lincoln Riley brought his Big 12 style defense to the Pac 12. It ain’t over ’til it’s over. Still there was lot’s of great college football this weekend. Even my Hawkeye’s won going 0 for 12 on third down beating Kentucky 21-0.
Go Dodger’s!
Well that will change. You can bet on that. They have landed a lot of defensive players in the transfer portal. They have gotten at least 3 LB’s a couple of DL’s and a couple wide receivers too. Expect some more movement. I would also think a new defensive coordinator might be in the works.
My two favorite conferences are the Big 10 and the Pac 12. Adding USC and UCLA makes the Big 10 a coast to coast conference. Hopefully the added competition will strengthen the Big 10, not sure how the Pac 12 plays out. If only my Hawkeyes had a decent offense we coud probably compete with just about any team.
Still fun to watch college football come down to the final plays.
UCLA leaving is up in the air. The board of regents have yet to rule if they are going to let them move.
Ahh gotta love the delusions of grandeur in the minds of some fans. Let AF take care of the trades and signings. He knows what he is doing and where those guys factor in the Dodger plans, everything you do is pure guesswork with no real inside info whatsoever.
Says right there on MLB Rumors Mills Dodgers and Pirates talking about a deal for Bryan Reynolds. The deal would include if the Dodgers want to give Pirates Pepiot Miller and Pages. For Bryan Reynolds in a trade. So that’s where I saw it on internet.
When did it say that? I read MLBTR everyday, the entire thing, and I have not seen that anywhere.
Bradley, I went back and checked on MLBTR all the way to early November. The only mention of Reynolds and the Dodgers was on Christmas eve. And it states right there in the post that NO NEGOTIATIONS are currently taking place. End of Rumor.
If there is anything I’ve learned about the Friedman front office over the years it is that nothing ever gets leaked. It is fun sport speculating what he’s going to do, but in the end, we really have no idea what will happen until the official announcement comes out. I wouldn’t be surprised if move(s) are made that none of us ever thought of.
Exactly. I think and believe that AF is content to go into spring training with what he has on the roster and evaluate that first. If he feels he needs to shore up a certain position, he no doubt will make every attempt to do that. By the way, is this Friedman’s last year under contract? There was some discussion of that on MLBTR. He signed an extension after his original contract expired, but no one seems to know what length it is.
I’ve been in favor in trading for BR, but the prospects mentioned above by Bradley is way too much. Maybe Pepiot and another top 20 player. Reynolds is a solid player, but isn’t that outstanding to warrant that type of return in IMO. But, that’s why the Pirates are the Pirates. But, if that’s the cost then pass and plug with a platoon or trade for a year or two.
Yeah a platoon of Taylor Thompson Heyward who over swing and try to hit it out every time. Then just put the ball in play. And get on base guys. It gets old watching that each year after year the platooning. I understand they do that because certain guys hit pitchers better. But I guess I am old school. Where the same outfielders played every day. And the same infield played every day. And then the guys on the bench filled in to give the guys off days. Opening day my guess will be Taylor Thompson Betts in outfield even thou fans want Outman. And infield will be Vargas Lux Muncy Freeman and Smith. And JD Martinez at DH. Okay let’s see Taylor gets hurt every year so who backs him up if he gets hurt. Thompson isnt consistent enough on offense so eventually Outman gets a shot what if both hit poorly. Then it comes down to Vargas. Can he hit major league pitching. That’s alot of ifs on a team like the Dodgers. Which fans don’t like alot of ifs.
I am old school too Bradley, but, that is no longer how this team operates. Except for SS, RF, and first base, where they have had established stars, they have been moving players around for most of the last 8 years or so. Even JT had not played a full season at third for more than a couple of years. Thompson only has to hit in the .250 range to be out there more often than not. Will he do that? No one knows. No one knows what kind of production they are going to get out of any rookie. That is the way this team is constructed right now. And AF is not going to take on any salary. He proved that already. We have to live with what they have, and see what happens. He will make moves at the deadline if needed, but in the last couple of years, he has also shown he is not going to make a trade unless he feels it improves their chances of winning. They do not care if you feel it gets old watching the same old platoon system year after year. There won’t be another infield. There won’t be a set 3 man outfield either.
There is an obvious problem with the projections of Cartaya as a superstar, or as “the face of the franchise.”
His name is Will Smith.
So when will Cartaya beat out Smith for the starter’s job? When does Smith get pushed aside?
We used to talk about Cartaya pushing Will to 3B–but then where will Miguel Vargas play?
There is speculation that Will could be traded, but isn’t Cartaya the more likely trade candidate? Perhaps he is included in a blockbuster…
Say, Cartaya + Bush + Amaya + Miller for Adames and Burnes.
Or something,
Another reason Cartaya could be traded: Dalton Rushing. Pretty nice to have both Cartaya and Rushing waiting in the wings. (And Cartaya’s presence is also why Rushing might get traded.)
Understand that I don’t want any of these guys traded… unless the return is really compelling.
Hey, perhaps Cartaya will push Smith to 3B… and Vargas winds up getting traded.
The flaw in any hypothetical trade is this, Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have both stated that none of those guys are going to be traded. Now they might get moved at the deadline, BUT, if they get traded at the deadline the price is going to be huge.
DNS, easy button. Smith and Cartaya share C and DH. Barnes has 2 years left on his contract. Don’t overthink it.
Thanks for the Sanity.
This was the tweet about Bauer…
“Last week I reached out to 10 current #Dodgers players. Four have responded already. None of them have any concern playing on the same team as Trevor Bauer. In fact, two even went as far as saying they feel the trial by social media has been completely unfair. There’s your story.”
So, he reached out to ten players. All of them responded in the affirmative. That’s pretty good betting odds, Bluto!