Michael Busch is a Minor League Player for the Los Angeles Dodgers who just finished his second full season, even though he was actually drafted in 2019 and had all of 24 ABs in the Minor Leagues because he was hit by a pitch and missed the rest of the season with broken bones. Of course, in COVID-2020, Busch did not play, so 2021 was his actual “first season,” and he spent that season at AA Tulsa, where he hit 20 HR, with 27 doubles in 409 ABs. He hit .267 with a .386 OB% while OPS’ing .870.
Last year was really his second professional season. In that season, he hit 32 HR with 38 doubles while hitting .274 with a .365 OB% and a .881 OPS. That’s real progress! He does strike out a lot as he hits lots of fly balls, but his power is prodigious, and he is not a really big guy. He is 6′ 1″ and 210 pounds, and as you can see in his videos (below), he is rather svelte, but his opposite field power is a thing, and I think he will become even stronger in the next year or so and hit even more HR.
Comparisons to Max Muncy are not really fair. I have heard that he is “stocky” like Max, but watch the videos below, and you will see he is not the least bit “stocky.” He looks lean to me, and while he is not a “burner,” his speed is average. He is also surprisingly athletic. While I do not think he will be a Gold Glove second-baseman, his deceptive athleticism will enable him to stay at 2B (IMHO). In his scouting report, it says this:
“His speed and arm are still fringy, but he has impressed scouts inside and outside of the organization by his transformation into an adequate defender at second, and he also has seen some action in left field in 2022.”
— Dodgers Top 30 Prospects
Mike Busch needed all of 2022 in the Minors to polish his skills, but I believe he will get a shot at making the Dodgers right out of Spring Training! The thing is – he will have to earn it… if he gets one. He could play in LF or 2B, but I would not be afraid to see him at 2B. Busch is also a better pure hitter than Max Muncy, but he could certainly be compared to worse players.
By way of comparison, Max Muncy hit 12 HR and 20 doubles in 379 ABs at OKC in 2017 at age 26. He hit .309 with a .414 OB% and .905 OPS. He was older than Busch, but the results were similar… except that Busch hit a lot more Big Flies. Let me say this: Michael Busch is a better hitter than Max Muncy and has more power (and that is saying a lot).
I suspect that he may end up in LF rather than 2B this year, just due to roster makeup, but I do think his time is now. Listen to his interview on Dodger Poke Report.
Here is where you can see his prodigious power to both fields and that he is not “stocky.” This guy is “built.” Enjoy the power:
Will Busch make the team in 2023? I have no clue. That will be up to him. Remember, this is baseball – who really knows? James Outman looked like Babe Ruth last year. He could fall on his face this Spring (I hope not, but you never know. I think 2023 will be an amazing Spring Training. I can hardly wait.
Of course, Andrew Friedman could always have something up his sleeve, but he may play it by the book this year as there are many reasons to Let the Kids Play! Of course, he could make a Blockbuster Trade as well. Andrew Friedman is a Wild Card, and whatever he does is wildly unpredictable.
Mike Busch could play 2B or LF. Max Muncy could play 3B or 2B, Gavin Lux could play 2B, SS, or CF. There are so many options, and right about now, all the paysites are coming out with statistical predictions, which are about as accurate as a monkey throwing darts at Stocks in the Wall Street Journal. I buy all of those books every year… just to save money on toilet paper. Save your money.
I sincerely hope Busch makes the team out of spring training. Eovaldi signing a two-year deal with the Rangers.
Great piece mark. I really like Busch, and wouldn’t mind seeing him at 2nd if for sure lux is our shortstop. I still long for a center fielder because I’m not sold on Thompson for 162, and outman may or may not open season on big league roster. I really feel strong that JD will have a monster year, muncy will.rebound, will smith will continue to be an all mlb 1st team receiver, Mookie will have an outstanding year, Freddie gets even better and Vargas competes for ROY! Bauer could push this team over the top! Hope everyone has a wonderful new year
Nice writeup.
I think the Dodgers did well to sign JDM, but a full-time DH makes it tough for Busch.
We know the Dodger brass love Vargas and will give him as much of that “runway” that they gave Lux. But right now it seems that could take an injury to Vargas or Muncy–or JDM or Freddie–for Busch to get a meaningful shot.
My guess is that most ML second basemen (Busch’s most likely position) are smaller than 6-1, 210. Whether Busch is svelte or stocky doesn’t matter nearly as much as the quality of his play.
That’s one of the great things about baseball.
The Dodgers’ top power hitter is former second baseman listed at about 5-9, 180. (Prediction: In about five years Mookie will win a gold glove at 2B. )
It’s funny that you say that most second basemen are smaller than 6-1 210, when our own Gavin Lux is 6-2…
Orlando Arcia is 6-0 190
Cronenworth 6-0 190
Semien 6-0 195
Gleyber Torres 6-1 205
Wilmer Flores 6-2 213
Max Muncy is listed at 6-0 215, but we all know that’s a lie.
Hell, Jonathan Schoop is 247!
Funny, you forgot to mention all-star calibre 2B guys like Altuve, Albies, Kolten Wong, Tommy Edman… Let’s add their dimensions to the mix.
I’d wager money that, on average, the “smallest” position by height and weight in the MLB is 2B. Why did Mookie start out at 2B before proving he had the tools to be a gold glover in RF? Lucky for us the Red Sox had Pedroia at 2B, all 5-9 and 180 pounds of him, pushing Mookie to the outfield.
The profiling starts in Little League. The most athletic, advanced kid is SS. The big kid is at first. You hope the big lug can play catcher. The quick little guy with the developing arm plays 2B….
A little googling produced an article by Fanatics Forum in 2018. It found that the avg MLB player is 6-2, 207 lbs–so Busch is pretty typical. As for 2B: ” Second basemen, on the other hand, average short and light, roughly 5 feet 11 inches and 191 pounds.”
https://blog.fanatics.com/baseball-players-shapes-sizes/
I just gave you eight guys that are in the ballpark of Busch, but you want to keep arguing. I’m not taking into account all players that play the position, like Fanatics Forum. I just skimmed the top of the best hitters that played full-time at the position last year.
I did mention 3 All-Stars. Torres, Cronenworth and Semien. Colton Wong and Tommy Edman were never All-Stars.
Do you want to double down on your lazy non-factual opinions?
Maybe not all-stars, but both have won gold gloves at 2B. Top-tier performers.
My point is simply that Mark is off the mark in saying that Busch, at 6-1 and 210, “is not really a big guy. ”
Busch is actually bigger than most guys who play 2B–and your list supports that point while omitting some pretty famous 2Bs who are actually much smaller. (Davey Lopes, btw, was listed at 5-9, 180–about the same as Mookie.)
But I don’t really care if Busch is as big as Aaron Judge or Jose Altuve. Size means very little compared to ability and performance.
There is a tendency among some of us amateur scouts to think size=power.
That is often the case….and yet Dodgers’ smallest starter is also the team’s top slugger. Go figure.
Mark’s more provocative claim is that Busch is a better hitter than Muncy, a guy who hit 35 HRs three times before wrecking his elbow. Max’s plate discipline kept his walk rate up even while he was slumping. Mark bases his bold assertion on a comparison of minor league stats which, to me, mostly reveal how Max was something of a late bloomer.
Now, it will be great if Busch turns out to be a better hitter than Max, but the praise seems a bit premature.
I like Busch and I believe he’ll see action in ’23. I agree, no one should compare Busch to Max Muncy. Two different players. His defensive skills are improving. The bat plays up.
Michael just looks and sounds like my kind of player. Love his humility and the way he emphasizes the team, on and off the field. More excited about this year and the raw possibilities. Looks to be a great mix of veterans and youngsters. “It’s time for Dodger baseball!” I’m missing Vin …
Where Busch plays depends on where Dodgers want Vargas to play. If Vargas is at third then Muncy is at second and Busch competes for LF spot. If Vargas is in LF then Busch has a shot at 2nd with Muncy at 3rd. Anyway it plays out we’re not gonna be a great fielding team.
I think a lot of it comes down to who does what in Spring Training. I would imagine that Busch and Vargas might see some time in LF in the Spring. While I don’t think we’ll be a great fielding team, I don’t think we’ll be the Phillies either.
I think Muncy, Busch and Vargas could be average fielders to a little above average. I think Lux will surprise many after drinking Mark’s cool-aide for years. After all, he’s been a DRS dream (+16 in 153 games) at 2B. Mookie, Outman/Thompson with CT3/Heyward in LF is a very good defensive outfield all around. Freddie has 1st base covered.
The bottom line on defense is 2 of Muncy, Vargas and possibly Busch will be in the infield this year. It could be better, and it could be worse. Freddie and Lux will have to help them out and the way Freddie picks ’em at first, they can all benefit as a result.
Busch is a flat-out stud. He’s the kind of player that delivers when it counts most. His defensive deficiencies are greatly exaggerated especially considering he has a career fielding percentage of 971 in just 215 games at second base, a position he didn’t play in college.
The thing that Busch does best is put runs on the board. In just 142 games last season, he managed to score 118 runs and drive in 108. The dude can flat-out hit! Big opposite field power is a gift that few have. He and Andy Pages have plenty.
It’s going to be a fun couple of years watching these kids get added to the roster. Especially when they’ve done so much winning together while they worked their way up the minor leagues. It kinda reminds me of “The Infield” and all the winning they did while coming up together in the minors.
Definitely will make for fun spring training games
Can’t wait!
Really enjoyed this article
SS Lux (.370 OBP before injury)
2B Betts
1B Freeman
DH Julio Daniel
C Smith
3B Muncy
LF Vargas
RF Pagés
CF TT/Outman
I would like Busch yo play 3B in AAA, he seems like a third baseman
Busch’s arm grades a 45 on the 20-80 scale. That’s why he’s a second baseman.
Busch has never played 3B and likely never will… unless there is an emergency. His arm is the reason why.
Great introduction to Michael Busch.
Sounds like a hard working guy with a great attitude.
Still young enough to improve as a defender, and probably needs more time in AAA to improve as a hitter as well.
Busch hit 266/343/823 with 21 HR in OKC last year.
For comparison, Vargas is 2 years younger and hit 304/404/915 and 17 HR in OKC last year.
Busch is a very good prospect and has great chance to contribute in MLB. But right now Vargas is MLB ready.
Vargas played the whole year at OKC, while Busch started at Tulsa and was promoted to OKC. Add Busch’s Tulsa stats and you’ll see he flexed more power, including 32 HRs. But Vargas is younger and his power could increase.
Unlike Outman, neither won raves for their fielding–but Vargas is more versatile than Busch and has the stronger arm.
With JT gone, Vargas should get a long look at 3B… .and I still don’t understand why he didn’t get more starts there last season. If the brass had shown him a little more trust perhaps his bat would have gotten untracked. I simply don’t understand why Vargas, their prized rookie, didn’t get more starts when the Dodgers were running away with the division.
Easy prediction: Dodgers will have a stronger bench heading into the 2023 playoffs than they had in 2022. While just about every other playoff team upgraded down the stretch, the Dodgers got worse.
Just for fun, I took a dive into Baseball Reference to assess the 2022 performances of our three favorite ML-ready bats: Vargas, Outman and Busch.
Vargas played in OKC and LA, while Busch and Outman played at Tulsa before their promotion to OKC. For Vargas and Outman, I added the ML stats to their minor performances.
All three look pretty darn good. All deserve a real shot.
While Outman strikes out a lot more than we’d like–159 Ks against 72 walks–he had the clear edge in overall production: a .298 BA, 32 HRs, 33 doubles, 7 triples (two cycles, remember?). He scored 107 runs and knocked in 109. In the minors his OBP was .393 and his OPS was .978–and absurd during his four games in the majors.
Something else I notice about Outman: remarkable improvement from his college stats, and he was better in OKC than he was in Tulsa. The upward trajectory is encouraging. At age 25, he fits the late-bloomer description.
Busch’s power/production numbers are strikingly similar to Outman’s. He also strikes out more than we’d like, with 167 Ks against 74 walks. His BA was .274 , and he hit 32 HRs and 38 doubles. He had 118 runs and 108 RBIs. His OBP was .365 and OPS was .881. (A minor concern: Busch’s performance slipped a bit from Tulsa to OKC, while Outman’s improved. )
Vargas, of course, is our great ROY hope–the young bat-to-ball guy who has been getting the hype and seems all but guaranteed to have a spot in the starting lineup.
He struck 89 times against 73 walks. While he batted .304 at OKC, his scuffling in the majors dropped his overall BA to .291. He finished with 18 HRs, 33 doubles, 4 triples. Totaled 104 runs and 90 RBIs. His OPS in OKC was .915–higher than Busch, lower than Outman–but only .455 in the majors.
While it’s based on a small sample, I’m still struck by how Vargas’s plate discipline seemed to disappear against major-league pitching. He walked only twice in 50 PAs, while striking out 13 times. While Vargas’s OBP for OKC was .404 (!), it was only .200 in LA (ugh).
But let’s assume Vargas overcomes his struggles and all 3 of these guys have a great spring and prove competent in the field:
Betts RF
Lux SS
Freeman 1B
JD Martinez DH
Muncy 2B
Smith C
Outman CF
Vargas 3B
Busch LF
Bench of Barnes, Taylor, Thompson and… Heyward?
This could be fun.
But yeah, I’d be concerned about the defense.
If you want to attach any significance whatsoever to Vargas hitting .170 in his first 47 ABs, then realize that Mike Trout was 8 for 56 in his first MLB ABs. That’s a .142 BA! What did that mean? NOT A DAMN THING! What is the point? The only point that you can make is that based on the criteria you just used, Miguel Vargas will be better than Mike Trout!
You can’t cherry-pick your stats.
Mark McGwire hit .199 his first full season. Had the A’s cut him after that debacle, they would have been very sorry.
Bringing up Trout again, eh?
Talk about cherry-picking….
Trout was 19 years old when the Angels decided to give their can’t-miss future star his first ML experience. He was drafted in 2009, and debuted in 2011.
You want to focus on his first 56 ABs, but Trout actually had 123 ABs that season. He finished that season with a .220 BA, including 5 HRs and 6 doubles.
Vargas was three years older when he debuted, with several more years of professional experience.
When Trout was 22, he was winning his first MVP.
But I hope you are right to suggest Vargas might be a bit like Trout. In the years since his debut at 19, the lowest OPS that Trout produced was .939.
Mark loves bringing Trout’s rookie experience up.
Miguel Vargas played in 120 more minor league games than Trout. Hardly “several more years of professional experience”.
The point is that you can’t judge anyone by their first 50-60 MLB AB’s. Are you really arguing against that?
I didn’t bring up Trout. People here want to dismiss Vargas’s poor debut, or even suggest that it means he’ll be special! Anyway, it happened and it’s not predictive of the future.
But it was damn representative of the present for a team preparing for the playoffs. I will say that Vargas didn’t really do enough to earn a spot on the playoff roster–and yet there he was. AF’s infatuation with both Vargas and Gallo were part of the reason he failed to pick up guys like Drury and Bader.
What puzzles me here is that our chief in-house scout seems convinced that Vargas will be a star, and that unproven Mike Busch is a better hitter than Max Muncy, an accomplished slugger ….but Outman gets the Rodney Dangerfield treatment.
The raw numbers from 2022 show that Outman outperformed both Vargas and Busch. Yeah, he strikes out too much–so does Busch–but he put up an overall OPS close to 1.000. We can live with a lot of Ks if a guy has an .800 OPS, right? Come to think of it, Outman’s 2022 numbers were kinda Trouty–because Trout strikes out a lot too.
But perhaps Mark is right. Perhaps Vargas will be a star and Busch will be better than Muncy. Perhaps Outman is a fourth outfielder at best–and perhaps Mark is correct in grading Johnny DeLuca, Jose Ramos and Andy Pages as superior OF prospects. (The prospect list is a fun read.)
Pages, Mark points out, had at .804 OPS with 21 HRs in Tulsa at age 21. Not shabby! But obviously not close to what Outman produced. When Outman was 21, he was still using his “caveman” swing at Sacto State, producing mediocre numbers but flashing the ability that made the Dodgers draft him.
When I first saw Outman on TV in spring training, his athleticism was impressive. He ran like a gazelle compare to older guys like DJ Peters and Luke Raley. His defense is consistently praised–and shouldn’t that count for something?
I suspect the Dodger brass has a higher opinion of Outman than some bloggers. They called him and he freakishly delivered. He struck out too much–but that was true of Belli, Gallo, Taylor and Thompson.
Somebody on this site once wrote that, as soon as Outman was sent back down, his play faltered. If that was true, it didn’t last long at all. It was after he was sent back down he hit for two cycles within a week. Outman was productive for the entire season.
Here’s hoping he gets a real shot in 2023. He’s more than earned it.
Trout was 19 at his ML debut, Vargas was 22. So three more years of physical growth, development and experience–even if one was the 2020 “season.”
Baseball Reference says Vargas played 410 games across four seasons in the minors. Trout, from age 17 (!) to 19, played about 300 games in minors before he was called up.
Vargas minor league stats were very good– BA of 313, OBP of 390, OPS of .878. His bat-to-ball skills improved in 2022. The overall record showed 194 walks against 284 strikeouts.
Red Sox signed Corey Kluber.
Question for prospect gurus: How will a .267 minor league batting average translate in the majors?
One never can really project. Simply because some players come in with low expectations, get coaching from MLB coaches and then improve dramatically.
Agree. Impossible to project.
That said, I would also be looking at a trend of consistency and improvement.
Not a hitter, but I think Gavin Stone’s consistent excellence in the minors bodes well. He might not be an ace on the next level, but he should be solid.
Agreed. You can take almost every MLB player, check their first month or so and not really get a read on what they are going to be. Not everyone is a Trout or Griffey Jr. They have to find their niche. Lasorda totally misread Martinez potential and traded him for a player who was never what he had been before he joined the Dodgers. Same thing happened with Konerko.
100% agree.
I watched all of these guys a lot last year, and Miller’s ceiling is that of an Ace. Gavin Stones may not be of an Ace, but certainly a #2 or #3. Vargas probably could be an occasional All-Star and Busch is just a Solid Player who is in a support role.
You need them all – you just can’t have All-Stars at every position. The Math does not work.
I will say this: I Feel like the Dodgers currently have more than 20 pitchers who will pitch in the major leagues!
Got my Dodger jacket with the World Series winner patches and my new LA cap today. Nice Christmas present from me to me. LOL. Tommy LaStella DFA’d by the Giants today.
Just read an article on Dodgernation. Ron Cey went on there and had some harsh but fair words to say about the Dodgers surprise loss to the Padres in the NLDS. And most of what he said echoed things that have been noted here and on other sites since it ended. He cited the fact that the Dodgers basically had not played a game of importance for almost two months. The 5-day layoff was more than they needed. They were relying on too many Mendoza line hitters at the bottom of the order. Too much pressure on the top 4 in the lineup to produce runs early. And they simply did not execute in the clutch when they needed to. After game one, they were totally outplayed and outpitched by the Padres. We all saw that. I trust the Penguins judgement and analysis. He has been there and done that. I still believe they need a new offensive approach.
It may not be the approach that is the problem. Maybe it was the players! We are about to find out. They also have a new hitting coach – JDM!
This is a good analysis. I think long layoffs that are there to reward the team that clinches the division actually work against them. Hitting is about timing, and you just need the reps against live pitching to stay sharp. That, and I think the Dodgers were coasting the last few weeks to try to go into the playoffs fresh. Their offense showed some worrying signs of tapering off in the last couple of weeks before the playoffs after an historic year, with some notable anemic games against some pretty bad teams like the Nationals.
Not only were they outplayed by the Padres, but I don’t think the Dodger hitters adapted to how the Padres were game planning against them. I think even Mookie alluded to the Dodgers not really going in with hitting plan. If true, I think that’s a coaching failure.
Not only should Roberts be fired, he should be drawn and quartered on the pitcher’s mound in a grand spectacle on Opening Day. Only then will I be satisfied.
I seem to remember having a bit of a nasty argument here where I made the same precise point about the Dodgers over reliance on the Big Three. Cey cites the top 4, but the gist of the argument is the same.
The Dodgers should hire Cey when they fire Roberts.
Cey would not win anywhere close to 111 games. The Roberts should be fired narrative is getting old.
Which is why I added the drawn and quartering wrinkle.
Of course Cey shouldn’t be the manager. I was pressing Mark’s buttons.
Of course, some will say that I keep beating up on Lux as a SS. That is based upon real evidence. Dave Roberts has the best managerial record of anyone in baseball, and saying to fire him is purely subjective and based upon facts not in evidence.
I think comps to Muncy are not unreasonable. Maybe if you don’t just compare physiques, cuz that’s really irrelevant anyway. One’s stocky? Who cares? That is a pet peeve of mine, and I’ll often read scouting reports that say things like, “The way X walks behind the mound between pitches reminds me of Y.” What does that have to do with anything?
Busch is similar to Muncy in that both are left handers, both have pop, and both are somewhat limited defensively to 2nd base, DH, 1st base. Muncy can play 3rd, which Busch cannot, and Busch could possibly play LF, which Muncy cannot. Busch has a great swing – short, compact, powerful and can hit to all fields. Muncy is pull first. Muncy has a much better eye and one of his best attributes is the ability to draw walks to generate runs. Busch demonstrated a great walk rate in AA that fell off when he was promoted to AAA. He needs to get his BB% up and his K% down. If he can, he could be a replacement for Muncy if Max has another down year in 23 and the Dodgers decide to buy out his contract in 2024. If he can’t he’s a trade chip.
The JDM signing blocked him from getting a shot at 2nd base, which is his most “natural” position, to put it rather loosely. I think the only way he makes the team is if he can learn LF and can platoon with CT3. I think most indications are that Vargas will get a long runway to take over 3rd, which puts Muncy back at 2nd. Still, I think introducing three unproven rookies is pushing it, and including Busch to go along with Vargas and Outman is maybe a bridge too far, especially since he’s a defensive liability.
I think Lux gets a bad rap as a SS, but he also ain’t Ozzie Smith. Even if they hit, an infield of Vargas, Lux, Muncy (Busch) and Freddie does not inspire confidence, and defense does matter.
… which is why I would put Chris Taylor at SS. Yeah, nobody likes that Idea because he has only played about 13n games at SS for the Dodgers because he had two All-Stars ahead of him, namely Corey Seager and Trea Turner.
CT3 can play SS at an above-average level.
He will hit at least .250 and be solid at SS.
He loves SS, and he has a GREAT arm. Just leave him there. He is good for one… maybe two years! Quit overthinking this.
Lux goes to CF where his speed will play up, and he can just think about hitting, By the end of Spring Training he will run down everything!
Forget the strikeout kings like Thompson, Gallo, and Bellinger. This is the lineup:
1. Lux CF (L)
2. Betts RF (R)
3. Freeman 1B (L)
4. Martinez DH (R)
5. Muncy 2B (L)
6. Smith C (R)
7. Busch LF (L)
8. Vargas 3B (R)
9. Taylor SS (R)
That lineup has a lot of potential. It’s not the BEST defensive lineup, but the Phillies were among the worst ever last year.
Outman is the 4th OF’er. We can live with this lineup!
Sorry Mark, if you’re gonna use those players you might as well have CT3 in CF and Lux at SS. Lux is the better SS and CT is the better outfielder.
I hope I am dead wrong about Lux, but I will maintain that he is no SS until he shows me otherwise.
I have seen lots of SS, and he is not one.
CT3 is the best pure SS in the system (outside of Aamaya).
The YIPS will be back,,, at 2B; it’s less of an issue. In CF, it’s no issue.
CT3 would be a good choice as SS if his right handed bat played up in the lineup. He was becoming painful to watch at the end of last year. He struck out more than Bellinger. He was the designated rally killer. If he plays offensively like he did last year he better be a gal darned defensive wizard at SS. He’s not a defensive wizard.
Even if he plays like he did in 2021 – .250 BA, ISO around .200, wRC+ over 100, 15 HRs – you lose what makes him valuable if SS is his designated position.