Merry Christmas everyone and Happy Holidays to those who prefer that greeting. Buon Natale to my paisanos!
Bah Humbug to Dodger’s fans! Were the Dodgers on the naughty list this year? It would seem that way, at least to the sportswriters and bloggers. The presents under the tree seem a bit thin this year. Trevor Bauer is like getting a hand-me-down ugly Christmas sweater from your bully of an older brother. So useless you want to cut it up and throw it away. JD Martinez is last year’s version of Call of Duty that was recycled from the bargain bin. Thor, Shelby and Heyward, from the “Isle of Broken Toys” that are in need of repair. A sad day indeed when you were expecting to unwrap that Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner that you put on your list…
I don’t see it like that. Let me start by saying this. There’s a method to the madness that is Andrew Friedman. He will pay market value, or perhaps pay over on occasion like he did in the case of Mookie Betts, with a caveat. Only for an impact player that will change the dynamic of your team. He’s not going to sign very long term contracts year in and year out. He knows that those kind of deals are going to kill you in the future. I think he probably had some serious discussions with Aaron Judge, just enough to push that price up. Aaron was always going to go back to the Yankees. The Yankees knew this, Judge knew this. Judge just needed to go get some legitimate offers and get the Yankees to step up their offer. They did and the rest was history. In the process, it set the baseline for the “Offseason of Stupid Contracts”.
The Dodgers didn’t need to do anything drastic this offseason coming off of a record-setting season. Andrew identified the reason for their postseason failure was the lack of hitting with runners in scoring position while foreshadowing what was to come. JT and Belli had targets on their backs. They both failed to perform this past postseason. For, JT it was two years in a row. Belli hit some in the previous postseason, but after two horrible seasons, it was time for a change or a discount. Belli found a new home instead while keeping the cash he was due. Trea Turner, it seems, wasn’t meant to be. He likes the other side of the country, or his favorite color is red, so off to Philly he goes to play with his buddy Bryce from their days together with the Nationals. The Dodgers certainly weren’t going to give him 27M+ for 11 years to play into his 40’s. And rightfully so! How many 40-year-old shortstops have you seen?
You heard rumors they were in on Xander, but how likely was it that they would sign the bad fielding shortstop that lost his power last season? Especially with Vargas about to emerge as the future third baseman, where was Xander going to play after of a couple more years making errors with limited range at SS? I don’t think that Swanson’s 180 K’s were ever an option and Carlos is focused on securing a long deal to guard his financial future against his leg and back injuries.
A New Chapter
Like a Phoenix rising from the ashes, the Dodgers will be reborn. We are in a state of transition and like the Phoenix, the team is emerging from a farm system that is ranked at the tippy top of the farm system rankings. Baseball Prospectus were the first to write about the farm system that the deepest in baseball with potential of many above average MLB players.
Who would have thought that CT3 and Austin Barnes would be 2 of just a handful of players that are still on the team 5 years after that first World Series appearance of this “Almost Dynasty”? With Belli and JT’s departure, we’ve officially turned to the page, so what lies ahead?
Trevor Bauer is now cleared to play. Most of the bloggers and writers say the Dodgers will DFA him. Those same people said he would never pitch again in the MLB. It seems that the Sports Writers these days would rather set the narrative instead of reporting facts. Facts are boring I guess…
deGrom got 37M+ this offseason on a five-year contract after being injured for most of the past couple of years. Verlander got 43M+ each year for the next two seasons as a 40-41 year old. Trevor’s contract will essentially be a one year deal worth 22M. Clearly, there will be interest from some team or all of the other 29 teams for his services, especially if the Dodgers choose to pay part of the contract in order to get more valuable players in return. The Dodgers would be criminally stupid to cut him as Bill “Wiley Coyote” Paschke – Super Genius suggests. If they’re afraid to bring him back to LA, they should trade him and get something for him.
A PR nightmare is the narrative about not bringing him back. I just don’t understand why it wasn’t a PR nightmare with the Yankees to bring back Chapman or the Braves to bring back Ozuna. Bringing Urias back didn’t seem to be much of a PR nightmare for the Dodgers, yet there were a ton of people on this site that were calling for his release or trade. Now, he’s a fan favorite once again. Why is Trevor held to a different standard? Is alleged rough sex with Social Media strangers so much worse that abusing your wife, girlfriend, domestic partner? Has this country completely lost its collective mind?
Most of those same writers and bloggers are disappointed with the Dodgers off-season. They seemingly grade a team’s offseason success by how much money they spend, I guess. No one getting negative grades for historically long contracts for talent not quite at the upper echelon in the sport, but the Dodgers are surely not doing enough after letting a career 842 OPS shortstop walk and replacing his bat with a career 872 OPS DH. Wouldn’t that improve the offense? Or letting a third baseman with the worst OPS since he arrived in LA go to let their best MLB-ready prospect take over the position. Isn’t that what you’re supposed to do? Replace an aging veteran with your best rookie and they just happen to play the position. It looks to me that the stars have aligned. They also decided to let go of a former MVP and plus defensive center fielder who’s still very young and has as much, or more upside than the left side of the infield that wasn’t retained. In return, they cleared the way for the next most MLB-ready prospect outfielder, who’s also young, also bats left-handed, also plays plus defense, and is also a plus baserunner. All of this makes a lot of sense to me when I take my emotional ties away from the players we lost. Each of them performed worse than career norms last season and each failed entirely, or to some extent in the postseason. Put up, or shut up! That’s the way to run a team, not on emotional ties.
In addition to the position players, they also let two pitching projects from the previous year walk after reviving their careers and earning a payday after just one good season. The Dodgers answered by picking up two more projects with potentially more upside. New inputs for the Dodger’s pitching factory. This is a tactical advantage that the Dodgers have over other teams and one they should exploit whenever they can to maximize this competitive advantage.
In summary, they replaced everything they lost with legitimate options while reducing payroll significantly. Instead of the pundits praising them for such brilliant management of the team’s resources, they are poo-pooing the Dodgers for not doling out money to match the worst contracts ever, in the history of baseball? It’s crazy that these guys and gals get paid to write such horrible opinions without the benefit of independent analysis. It doesn’t pay to think out of the box, not when you’re a fish hack looking for clickbait from the masses.
And then came the first updated prospect list that was published by Baseball Prospectus, possibly the most respected prospect analysis publication in all of baseball. Their verdict? The Dodgers have the deepest farm system in all of baseball and overall, are second only to the tear-down and rebuild style of the ever futile Baltimore Orioles. Not only are they the second best and deepest system, it also seems they have the most MLB-ready talent to boot. Baseball Prospectus writer, Jeffrey Paternostro said the Dodgers system is “staggeringly deep in terms of potential above-average major leaguers.” In addition to the MLB arrivals of Miguel Vargas and James Outman, BP projects an additional 3 players from the top ten list to arrive this season in, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone and Michael Busch. That’s 5 MLB ready top prospects primed to infuse their talents onto the Major League roster this season. And you wonder why they acted as they did? Is this not the perfect time to reset the cap? Where’s the love from the experts?
So, without looking at names, the Dodgers replaced two pitching projects from last year with two new projects for this year. They replaced the best bat with one with better career numbers while also providing veteran leadership. They replaced an aging vet and a fading star with the two most MLB-ready top 10 prospects from the second-best farm system in baseball and somehow this team didn’t do enough.
And to emphasize the hypocrisy further, the same writers that complain the Dodgers didn’t do enough, also refuse to trade any prospects that are in the top 10 list each season. They don’t want give the prospects a chance to replace unproductive players, and they also want to cut a former Cy Young winner because “PR Nightmare”. I’m embarrassed at the lack of foresight, the lack of reason and above all the duality of their don’t trade the prospects because their too good, but don’t player them either philosophy to roster management.
Adding top prospects and resetting the cap is a good thing. Mostly, it resets the dollar amounts associated with escalating tax rates, but possibly even more important, it reduces penalties associated with acquiring talent to restock the minor leagues via the draft and International Bonus pool money while allowing the team to once again, blow past the CBT any time they choose. This is a very reasonable and logical way to run a franchise. Yet, the pundits want you to believe their narrative that the Dodgers should have doled out 10+ years contracts to players that aren’t necessarily difference makers. After all, what difference did Trea Turner make in the postseason? One can argue he might have been the difference in moving past the Padres to face the Phillies if he would have hit with runners in scoring position or not botching multiple plays on defense. Sorry, but a decade long contract to a solid player, not a difference is maker, is not a recipe for long term success.
Now, after the busy season season leading up to the holidays, it’s time to reflect on the past year and look forward to the next. So, here goes…
BullPen’s “Christmas Miracle” lineup for 2023
Gavin Lux CF L – Another year older, another year stronger. He graduated to table setter and his speed will play up with the larger bases, swiping 2nd and 3rd with the best of them.
Mookie Betts RF R – Most teams bat their best hitter second, Mookie finally gets on board with it.
Freddie Freeman 1B L – As Vin would say, he’s the butter and egg man. He knows how to cash in baserunners and turn them into ribbies.
JD Martinez DH R – A healthy JD, a change of scenery, a reunion with his favorite hitting coach sets the stage for a resurgent year that gets him back to 40 doubles and 30 homers.
Max Muncy 3B L – His elbow is now fully healed and he’s caching in on 35 bombs again.
Will Smith C – R – His power numbers take a step forward and hits 30 big flies and 30 doubles adding 10 more extra base hits from last year’s totals.
Michael Bush 2B L – He bombs his way to 35 doubles and 25 homers with 100 RBI out of the 7 hole in the lineup.
Miguel Vargas LF R – He does what he’s done at every stage of the minor leagues and that’s good for 30 doubles, 20 homes and a 300/375/490/865 slash line.
Jacob Amaya SS R – His glove is too slick to ignore and his hot hitting get’s him the nod out of Spring Training. He hits just 265 on the season, but his 370 OBP and Golden Glove keeps him in the lineup and solidifies the infield all season.
Miggy and Michael are referred to as “The Two Mikes” and are favorites to win the Rookie of the Year award.
Pages and Outman were leaned on during the season to cover for injured players and both gave the Dodgers reason for optimism in the upcoming season just as Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone did on the hill as the Dodgers begin their real dynasty.
CT3 goes back to his Super Utility role and keeps the lineup firing on all calendars while providing rest to his teammates and doing damage against lefties coming in late in the games where he doesn’t start.
The Dodgers sure have a lot of lineup / rotation options next year. What’s your favorite lineup?
Sorry Mark for overwriting your earlier post…
I am glad it was you who suggested that Lux play CF, because if I had said it, I’d have been called crazier than a loon. However, I really like Lux in CF. I think it is one of the smartest things the Dodgers could do.
Put him there and let him learn. His speed will play well in CF and no worries about defense for him. He will be great in CF. Amaya and/or CT3 can cover SS.
I think this lineup:
1. Lux CF
2. Betts RF
3. Freeman 1B
4. Martinez DH
5. Muncy 2B
5. Smith C
7. Vargas 3B
8. Thompson/Outman/Busch LF
9. Amaya/CT3 SS
Lux is one of the most athletic players in the system. He can play SS, 2B or CF. It will depend on what the others can do.
In reality, it will probably be Vargas at 3B, Lux at SS and Outman in CF. I’m rooting for Amaya because he’s a local kid from El Monte, my hometown, but he and Busch might have to wait another year.
Betts was a second baseman that was moved to RF because Boston already had a second baseman.
Russell and Lopes were center fielders that were moved to middle infielders because they needed middle infielders.
The Dodgers have players that should be able to play average defense in center field with Thompson, Outman, and Taylor.
I would rather watch Outman in CF than I would Amaya at SS.
I would rather Lux play second if there were a better option for SS and I don’t think Amaya is a better option yet.
Lots of assumptions and opinions.
Little factual evidence.
Only one assumption and it was a safe one to make. Outman and Thompson have already shown good defense in CF so not so much an assumption that they should be able to play average defense at the major league level.
I remember the revolving door of 3bman we experienced post Adrian Beltre. After losing an opportunity to extend not one but two of the top SS in the game over the last two seasons, I hope Lux is up to the task. Otherwise, we could find ourselves in another painful situation at SS, as options look bleak via the trade market and/or future free agents classes at the position.
Amaya is supposed to be a great defensive SS. The Dodgers are obviously confident that Lux can play the position.
Amaya’s bat inspires very little confidence. Lux’s “yips” inspire very little confidence as well.
Prototypically elite offensive production is difficult to achieve at C, SS and CF. Now that teams are not going to be able to depend on defensive shifts, the need for superior defense up the middle is going to be much more magnified.
Guys like Seager and Turner are rare commodities.
I remember in Spring Training of 1998. I watched a young 3B show off some of his skills. His footwork was not good, and he suffered defensive lapses. He had 500 ABs at A+ Ball in 1997, but at the end of Spring Training, he was sent to AA. He proceeded to hit over .300 and was recalled by the Dodgers at the end of June. He hit .215 in a half-season in 1998 for LA and committed 13 errors as a 3B for a fielding percentage of .925!
I was roundly ridiculed for saying that he would be a HOF Player.
In 1999 he hit .275 but committed 29 errors.
In 2000, he hit .290 and cut down his errors to 23… and the rest is history!
Adrian Beltre became that HOF player I said he would become.
He just needed a chance.
Now, I am not saying Miguel Vagas will be a HOF player, but I do think he will be damn good.
He just needs a chance.
The same is true with Gavin Lux. He is not a SS, but I think he just might be Great CF’er. It takes vision to see this… not just sight!
I can live with a no hit – defensive wizard at SS!
You have been wanting to move Lux to left field for years and I always responded if he were to be moved to the outfield it should be to center field. I don’t want him in CF though. But, I am okay with moving Betts back to 2nd base should Outman and Thompson and Heyward hit better than Busch, Muncy, and Taylor.
BTW,
Miguel Vargas has been working out at Dodger Stadium since the season was over. He is working on his defense.
The big question is where. 3rd base or everywhere?
I do not know for sure, but I would think it is 3B.
I could be wrong.
It could be 3B, 2B, and LF!
This kid is no joke.
BTW, the VITRIOL at this site was spewed by a passive-aggressive Badger… among others. I call BULLSHIT!
You know of what I speak. I just call it what it is…
Recruit all our people all you want!
I have seen a lot worse than anything that was ever posted here and that was on the Dodgers own website when they had the comments portion. It got real testy in there. There have been some arguments here, but a lot less since we quit allowing any political posts unless the politics pertain to baseball or the Dodgers. The respect for others level here is a lot better than it used to be.
Thank You!
… and we only allowed the political posts because of the DRIVE-BY SHOOTINGS.
All the wackos went to Dodger Chronicles.
Johnny, I do not think we need to get into a pissing contest with Chronicles. Jeff was a writer here at one time. He is a good guy and very knowledgeable. I follow both and write here. There are far worse places to post.
MLBTR has their free agent list for both 23 and 24 up. Rams crushed Denver today 51-14. By far their best offensive game in a while, and the Lakers lost again.
I think Lux is fine at short and Vargas will play third. At this point, it would appear that Outman gets a shot in center.
Exactly, it doesn’t take much to see that’s plan A. But, who knows with the positional flexibility they have and who shows the most desire in Spring Training? I can see it play out in many ways.
I think and believe that Lux will end up at short. We will just have to wait and see if the yips affect him there. I have little doubt he will be working on his mechanics during spring.
Thank you to Watford Dodger for wishing me a good day today in yesterday’s posts. I’m not much into Christmas anymore, I think it’s my battle with depression that I’ve had since the late 90’s and that it’s gotten worse the last few years off and on. What I’ve gone through I just don’t know how the guy that was born today couldn’t give me a little lift. Anyways merry Christmas to everybody kinda late.
Belated Merry Christmas Eric. I understand what you are going through. You need to surround yourself with positive people. My son battles depression and anxiety every day.