James Outman had 16 Major League Plate Appearances and 13 official at bats last season. He went 6 for 13, with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. He walked twice and he struck out seven times. This was over a four-game stretch from July 31 to August 4, one at Colorado and three at San Francisco. He struck out in 6 of his final 7 at bats. The only outs Outman made in that four games were when he struck out which means that when he put the ball in play, he was batting 1.000.
Based on those 16 plate appearances, much of the Dodger fan base is sold on the fact that James Outman can handle centerfield full time. He just may be able to do so. But wow, 13 ABs? Talk about a small sample size.
Does anyone remember McKay Christensen? Yeah, I thought so. Who? I thought this guy was the real deal in 2002, and it was all over a small sample size of games from the previous season.
A first-round draft pick of the Angels in 1994, (6th overall), and a player with tremendous potential out of Clovis, California. Jet like speed, star running back on his CIF Champion high school team, strong arm, decent pop. He was a major league center fielder in the making. And then he disappeared from the scenes as he opted to go to Japan for a two-year Mormon Church mission. When he returned in ’96, the Angels had already traded him to the White Sox in a multi -player deal for Jim Abbott.
Christensen excelled in the minors, hitting well at all levels: Rookie, A, A+, AA and AAA as he ascended through the ranks as he was expected to do. Once in the majors, he stalled, struggling in his first two years. He still caught the eye of Chisox executive Dan Evans, who became the Dodger GM. Evans traded for him in 2001. By July, 2001 he was starting in center field for the Dodgers. For a 10-game stretch, he tore things up. He went 10 for 14 in a three-game series for his debut. Scoring four runs and driving in five as the leadoff hitter. On game ten he came up with an injury, I can’t remember exactly what it was, but it ended his season. He had opened the eyes of many, and it looked like he had a shot at starting in CF for the 2002 season.
Christensen hit the ground running at Vero Beach that 2002 pre-season. He was hitting over .400 early on. Stealing bags, hustling everywhere. You could tell he had the hunger to break with the team. I was actually there that spring to witness it for a week and the stands were buzzing about the potential of this kid. But there was another center field prospect that had just arrived in the organization that camp as well. A player traded in the off-season to the Dodgers from Cleveland by the name of Dave Roberts.
It didn’t take long to see that Roberts had become a favorite of Dodger manager Jim Tracy. Often sitting arm in arm with the Dodger manager as he would talk strategy with him on the bench. Roberts had the eagerness to learn and the right attitude in the eyes of the Dodger Manager, he was his center fielder. When Christensen made a bone head play on the bases and was picked off, it was almost an excuse for Tracy to stop playing him, and he did. Roberts began getting the bulk of innings. Christensen started to press as his innings dwindled to the late innings when the minor leaguers were all in there.
By the end of Spring when the club broke camp in Vero Beach, Christensen was invited along as the Dodgers played some more exhibition games at their then Triple A affiliate in Las Vegas, but the writing was on the wall, Dave Roberts would start in CF and Christensen was caught in a numbers game. He was out of options and was released when the 25-man roster was named.
Baseball is a funny game. You may have gobs of talent, but if you aren’t given a shot, or your big opportunity is lost, sometimes you never get another shot. Some guys just give up. The Mets picked up Christensen, but he only saw four more major league at bats in his career. He retired from the game in 2003 and returned to get his college degree, eventually settling on a career in selling real estate. A first round pick with promise, out of the game in 8 years. We have heard the story dozens of times.
Dave Roberts? Well, we know his story. What history might have been had Jim Tracy taken a liking to the other center field speedster in 2002.
So, I told that story because the constant talk of Outman as the future centerfielder may be a bit premature. Four games in the majors do not constitute a sample size of significance. He had an impressive four game debut in the majors, sans the strikeouts. We wanted to see more, but he was sent back to OKC. To Outman’s credit, at OKC he didn’t sulk about the demotion. He returned and just kept on hitting. Outman hit for the cycle, not once but twice over a four-game stretch. Who does that? Ty Cobb, I guess.
It was an amazing run in August and September for Outman. He was named PCL Player of the week on August 28th after going 15-23 (.652), collecting 12 extra base hits and 18 RBIs for the week. He seems to have nothing else to prove back at AAA ball, except maybe cutting back on his strikeouts. He had a K% of 27% in his minor league plate appearances last year. Coincidentally, that equals Bellinger’s MLB strikeout rate last year with the Dodgers (27.3%).
Outman will be 26 years old next season, the same age as Bellinger. He has as good a shot at making the team as a rookie as Bellinger did back in 2016. But Bellinger was 21 years old then, so the comparisons are starkly different. Nevertheless, the excitement of the fanbase is out there on this guy and few are considering the fact that he is up there in age.
Outman was a 7th round pick in 2018 out of Sacramento State. A big kid, who stands 6’3” and 215 lbs. He has shown power (31 homers last year), some speed (13 sb’s, 7 triples), decent glove with respectable outfield zone rating coverage. He will probably play significant time for the Dodgers in CF unless Friedman pulls off a deal for a player like Brian Reynolds.
Now with JD Martinez signed, the numbers for position players is beginning to dwindle. Could a multi-player deal may be in the making?
I am a James Outman fan, but my opinion is that he is a 4th outfielder. He is not hard to root for and is a hustler. Whether he becomes better than a 4th outfielder is entirely up to him. He is much the same as Bellinger in that he swings from the heels on every pitch. Maybe JDM can help him cut down on that swing with two strikes. If he can put that ball in play, he will cut down his strikeouts and hopefully up his BA and OB%.
He is a guy who relies on his tools and not so much on his intellect. I’d like to see him be a little more of a student of the game. I think they should let Outman (and Thompson) patrol CF to at least write them off or write them in. Then, a decision can be made at the trade deadline.
I remember McKay Christensen – he burst on the scene and was gone as fast as he came in. I have seen players show that kind of flash and then fizzle before, but it was faster than a speeding bullet… and he was gone. It looks like Roberts and Tracy had a Bromance!
BTW, I think JDM is going to make a huge impact on the Dodger Players… even Mookie Betts – The Dodgers have 3 MVP Candidates: Mookie, JDM, and Freddie. Wouldn’t it be wild if a guy making $10 Million finished in the Top 10?
Christensen’s other contribution may have been as the de facto Japanese/English interpreter for Hideo Nomo, as I remember him sitting in providing that service in a post game interview.
Great write up Evan. The kid will learn very fast that pitchers at the MLB level adjust to hitters very quickly. If he does not do the same, he will be back at AAA Mui Pronto. I watched all the games he played in. But watching baseball as long as I have, I temper my expectations and enthusiasm for prospects who have a good run at the very beginning of their careers. By the way, Cobb never hit for the cycle. Which in a lot of ways makes sense. Cobb’s game was getting on base and intimidating the pitchers and the other team’s defense. Honus Wagner had a cycle, so did Willie Stargell. Only five players have ever hit for three, Adrian Beltre, Christian Yelich, Bob Meusel, Trea Turner and Babe Herman, who is still the only Dodger with more than one. He hit his third with the Cubs. Turner has an excellent chance to be the only player to ever do it four times. Philly has a triples alley. Yelich is not the same player. There were numerous stories today on Google news and Yahoo news that the Dodgers were looking to maybe trade for a true CF. Players mentioned were Reynolds, of course, Thomas with the D-Backs, Kelenic and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals. All of them are either left-handed or they switch hit. Jake Lamb signed a minor league deal with the Angels. On a sad note, former Bronco running back Ronnie Hillman passed away at age 31 from a rare form of Cancer. RIP Oh yeah guys. It is minus 1 here right now. But compared to what is going on up in Montana, double digit minus degrees, this is a heat wave. Stay warm fella’s.
I’m waiting for the Bomb Cyclone! 😉
I had no idea that Cobb never hit for the cycle. Not surprising though as in the dead all era, homers were not that frequent,
I had to look it up. Mays never had one either. Mantle had one, DiMaggio had two. Ted Williams even had one. Lou Gehrig had two. Gil Hodges had one in 1949. The first Brooklyn player to hit for the cycle was the immortal Oyster Burns in 1890. Still one of the best names in baseball history.
Evan, nice post which made me think about Outman compared to Vargas which many feel is the better prospect. I haven’t shared this sentiment about Vargas and thought he was not yet ready for the majors and very disappointing at the plate. Not so, with Outman, but of course, we got a very small sample of him but he was explosive. How do you compare these two and who would you want on your team?
Hi Jeff. Actually I’d like them both on the team as I am of the opinion that the reset should include going with the youth movement. That would also include Stone and Pepiot on the staff and Busch at second base. Maybe even Avans given a shot as a speedy outfield option that hits to all fields, but I guess that’s another article for another day.
McKay Christensen had 36 homers in 9 minor league seasons. Outman had 31 just last year. It’s funny that these two players are almost the opposite of each other. Christensen was a 6th overall pick in his draft out of high school, while Outman was a 7th rounder out of CSU Sacramento. Christensen was a prospect from the start while Outman was more of a project, than a prospect.
I get the point though. Lot’s of guys crash and burn, even the best of them. But, for every Christensen, there’s a Brian Giles, or a fellow 7th-rounder like Jim Edmonds.
I’m a little high on Outman because he’s opened my eyes the past couple of spring trainings having some success while showing a lot of athleticism. The other reason is the low bar that Cody set offensively. But, at the same time, I’m guarded because of his alarming K rate.
Mark makes a good point that Outman showed resiliency by going back down after his callup and stepping it up another notch. I also understand his 4th Outfielder tag. Mark is historically quick to tag someone, and that tag never seems to go away. Alex “Gwynn-esque” Doogie is still going to be a batting champ (So much so, he wanted to trade Mookie for him last season). K-Bear is still a great catcher. Will Smith is still going to be a third baseman and Lux can’t play SS. Hell, maybe Billy Ashley is still gonna be a HR champ.
Most of us have been around long enough to know that if there’s one thing to expect in baseball, is to expect the unexpected. See Mike Piazza, Brian Giles, Wade Boggs, Fred McGriff, Andre Dawson, Nolan Ryan, Chili Davis, Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, Jack Clark, Dave Parker, Jose Conseco, Buddy Bell, Kenny Lofton…
Outman’s strike outs really concerned me. I was not a great fan of the Bellinger we all saw the last 3 years, so why would I be a fan of Outman, especially seeing he is a cheaper imitation of the former MVP?
Learn how to hit dude…or else Walmart awaits you.
It’s hard to compare Outman and Vargas, because of how they have developed.
Outman has 1537 ABs in the Minors with 79 HR and a .263 BA/.363 OB%, and a .859 OPS. Before that, he played three seasons at Sac State. As soon as he was drafted, the Dodgers began to “makeover” his swing, which was very Klunky. This started in 2018 and continued into 2019, and then he missed the Pandemic Season. So in 2021, he hit 18 HR with a .266 BA and a .869 OPS. In 2022, he broke out and hit 31 HR with a .294 BA /,393 OPS, and a .978 OPS. As was mentioned, he is 26 years old and struck out 152 times in 559 PA.
OTOH, Miguel Vargas, is three years younger and started in the Minors for the Dodgers in 2018. As one of the youngest players in each league, here is his yearly batting averages:
2018 – .330 – 2 HR – .869 OPS
2019 – .308 – 7 HR – .820 OPS
2020 – MISSED
2021 – .319 – 23 HR – .906 OPS
2022 – .304 – 17 HR – .915 OPS
He started as a scrawny kid and now is 6′ 3″ and 205, with the likelihood of another 10 or 15 pounds of muscle.
Contrary to what many think, he has great power, but he is more of a Piazza hitter than a Kingman hitter.
I love Outman, but as I mentioned, I am not sure he is a starter. I am as high on Vargas as I was on Seager and Belli (before he passed on). I expect him to hit .280. in 2023, but .300 is within range.
In 1904 PA, he has struck out 304 times.
I’m all in on Vargas. On top of just the stats, he’s said to have a very high baseball IQ, great instincts, and has an uncanny ability to pick up on small details of the game, like when a pitcher is tipping pitchers. Let him get comfortable. He kind of reminds me of a young Miggy Cabrera who was also a late bloomer and a “Bad Fielder” coming up until he turned into one of the greatest players of his generation.
I agree with you on your comparison with Miggy Cabrera.
They already share the same first name. The rest should be easy.
This was a high quality piece of writing and baseball commentary.
Outman is said to have great athleticism. They don’t say that about Vargas. Outman will play great defense and maybe make enough contact offensively. Vargas might play acceptable defense and most likely make very good contact offensively.
I would love to see Outman in CF. If Freeman and Martinez take him under their wing as a project maybe he will level his swing more, hit to all fields, make sufficient contact, and still hit 30 home runs.
The way I see it is Belli set such a low bar offensively, how can Outman be any worse while providing close or equal defense?
No one is accusing Vargas of being ultra-athletic like Outman, but he does have a 60 hit tool and 55 power. Both can improve with time in the weight room and the word is he’s working out like a madman all offseason. Vargas will be an All-Star at some point.
We are all crossing our fingers. I for one am hoping Vargas is concentrating his workouts at third base and not as a utility player. I’d love to have some speed at third otherwise it will be Adrian Gonzales on the basepaths.
Miguel Cabrera wasn’t athletic either, but Miguel Vargas is a lot more athletic than you think.
Let’s be realistic Miguel Vargas has much better shot at being Miguel Olivo then Miguel Cabrera. This is why this off-season has been one of the worst in recent memories. We had known quantities that would have just cost money and we passed on all of them in favor of penny pinching and a so called youth movement. If I see another one of Friedman’s high AAV offers over a short period I am going to throw up. The Mets have embarrassed us this off-season and really solidified us as Tampa West. I wrote my check last week for my season tickets, will the Dodgers front office ever write one again? Cohen’s luxury tax bill is fast approaching our payroll, embarrassing.
I am sure glad you know more than the Vagas Sportsbooks, who still have the Dodgers as the #1 team in the NL.
I just wonder why they think so highly of the Dodgers and you think so poorly?
Oh, it’s because they love to lose money. Nevermind!
See Sportsbooks put their money where their mouths are and they say the Dodgers are the Best in the NL. Since I have been saying that for a while, I do think I will stay with that bet!
I didn’t write a check for my season tickets.
The Dodgers billed my credit card.
Hey Bobby or B & P,
I am looking for four tickets for the Angels – Dodgers Game at the Ravine on March 26, 2023 (Sunday). Any connections? Of course, I will pay for them (a reasonable fee).
Let me know.
My son and his wife, and another friend are going to a wedding in Napa on Saturday, and we thought we would fly up to see the game on Sunday.
I believe you’re going to want to fly down from Napa, not up.
It depends upon whether you are a member of The Flat Earth Society or Not!
Mark, you can have my two tic, but again, I only have 2 tic. Reserve 1, so the view is great.
Granted, it’s an exhibition game, so you can get tickets dirt cheap for that game and sit with the cool kids downstairs.
I don’t want to keep you from the game… I need a drink! 😉
If you are going, I will keep looking.
Bobby,
Exactly, the chances that this dodo is a season ticket holder are akin to my chances of traveling to Mars.
Why people post moronic things to a blog and then not return to said blog is totally inexplicable to me. Scratches an itch I never had.
Trolls every one of them. Just have to give their wacky opinions.
I would not be surprised to see the Met’s barely get into the playoffs with a Wild Card!
AF and ownership up until this year have spent more money in the past several years than anyone in the history of baseball and now we’re Tampa Bay because they want to reset the CBT? Get real! They have given us incredible teams to root for and I for one am very grateful! You cant sustain the Mets spending ling term and Cohen has admitted that. You have to bring up young tslent to balance payroll for the longbterm
Bring on the kids! I can’t wait to see them play! And give them a little slack. We gave Bellinger 3 years to bust out.
He busted out his rookie year, and it wasn’t even a full year, he regressed some in 18 but was still a good player. Then in 19 he was a monster. So he actually had a little over one full season in the majors before he became an MVP. Being a Dodger fan, you should know that.
Speaking of the Mets, by buddy sent me this and I haven’t bothered yet to verify it, but if true, it’s amazing.
“Steve Cohen has signed 9 Free Agents this winter at a cost of $806 million. According to Baseball Prospectus the Met’s payroll for 2023 is $384.4 million which incurs a luxury tax hit of $111.6 million. Cohen will pay more in taxes this season than 7 teams are paying in payroll.
Nice post Evan.
Bulldogs: My fault I didn’t catch that you were talking specifically about Green’s fastball yesterday.
I can see Outman at .250 BA / .780 OPS and then Vargas .240 BA / .730 OPS in the big league in 2023.
I’ll take the over on Vargas!
Same here. Closer to .270 for Vargas.
In six seasons, Miguel Vargas has never failed to hit over .300. EVER! AND HE WAS USUALLY THE YOUNGEST GUY IN THE LEAGUE!
In six seasons, James Outman has hit over .300 just once, and that was an independent collegiate league.
You must use that new math!
AA and AAA Outman hit exactly .293 in both leagues.
AA and AAA average for Vargas .312, Vargas dropped 17 points from AA to AAA .321 to .304.
I differ from others. I say show me what you got starting in AA.
That works about 10% of the time.
Let’s not ignore their ML stats. Add those to the equation and Outman’s numbers improve while Vargas’s decline.
Of course Outman had a very small sample size–and it showed his explosive power and tendency to strike out. Outman also walked twice, which suggests at least some plate discipline.
Vargas had a much larger sample size, with about 50 plate appearances. Despite his reputation, he didn’t hit well at all–and he only walked twice, which suggests poor plate discipline. It’s fair to assume he was pressing, I think. (As Vin used to say, “No one walks off the island.”)
Maybe Vargas lives up to the hype. Clearly the Dodgers believe in him–and I hope it works out.
But I trust Outman in the OF a lot more than Vargas in the IF or OF. I still don’t understand why, with the Dodgers en route to 111 wins and the playoffs, Roberts didn’t play him at 3B a few times. It might have helped his confidence if he showed more faith in Vargas.
I’ll say this again: There is no way that Vargas deserved a spot on the post-season roster. And AF’s deal for Gallo was a bust too.
Except for Barnes, the Dodgers had a terrible bench going into the playoffs. Every other playoff team had bench players they trusted and used.
In fact, I’d argue that Angels–the friggin’ Angels!–have a deeper bench now that the Dodgers had heading into the postseason. Minassian just added Drury to go with Urshela and Renfroe –three solid veterans–in the upgraded Angels roster. (The Angels still need a true SS–but maybe the Dodgers do too.)
Meanwhile, AF saved some $$ by essentially replacing JT with JDM–pretty much a wash.
Oh, Toribio reported that AF tried to get JDM at the trading deadline, but the Red Sox wanted too much. Maybe they did.
But it sure might have been nice to have a guy like JDM to pinch-hit for Belli. Roberts picked Barnes, of course, because there was no reason to think Vargas was up to the task.
Storylines to watch re AF’s report card:
–JT vs. JDM. Did AF make the right call?
–Will Belli find his old self as a Cub?
–Can Tyler Anderson continue his success with the Angels? (Will Thor, in particular, outpitch him?)
–Is Lux the solution at SS?
Use your head Eric. How can anyone predict what those guys will do in the Bigs?
Yea I know but those numbers I think are a pretty safe bet. I think Vargas is being rushed.
Jeter Downs claimed by the Reds, Moustakas released, and Wil Myers signed by the Reds.
Downs back to where he started!
I believe Downs was claimed by the Nats, not the Reds.
You are correct. He was re-united with Kaybear!
My mistake whoopsie
I doubt Mark likes to be called whoopsie.
Whoopsie you can’t be serious
And Josiah Gray, his old teammate with the Reds.
Rooting for them all.
Not calling Mark whoopsie. That was meant as my bad whoopsie!
Shut up, or I will hit you with my purse!
Trevor Bauer reinstated:
https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/12/23/trevor-bauer-suspension-reduced-reinstated
Finally! Now we can make some plans.
Mark called it!
Question now becomes whether the Dodgers keep or shop him.
I think this opens up a window of opportunities.
No way he ever pitches for the Dodgers!
Tweet from Jon Heyman:
“Dodgers have until Jan. 6 to decide if they want to keep Bauer, or cut him. Under Major League Rule 2(C). He is reinstated but there is a period of time before he has to go back on the roster.”