Lots of fans of the Dodgers, as well as of other teams, have said that the Dodgers’ 2020 World Series Championship was tainted somehow because the season was just 60 games. Of course, they conveniently leave out the fact that they had to play in empty stadiums and had no home-field advantage. They also had to play an extra round in the playoffs, which no team (up until then) had ever had to do.
While I am at it, let me remind you that the Dodgers should have won the Word Series in 2017 but lost due to the cheating Asstericks… the same team that won legitimately (we think) in 2022. The Dodgers should have been awarded the World Series Trophy but for the failure to act by the gutless commissioner of baseball.
For the last ten years, the Dodgers have been one of the best (if not THE best) team in baseball. IN 2022, they won 111 games and were so far ahead in the Standings that they seldom played a meaningful game in August, let alone in September. On August 1, 2022, the Dodgers were 12 games ahead of the Padres. On September 1, 2002, they were 18 games ahead of the Padres, and they finished the season 22 games ahead of the Padres. Therein may lie the problem. For at least the last 60 to 90 days, they never played a game that really meant anything. They were the Senior teams playing the 8th Graders.
The result was that they just “sleep-walked” to a division title. They did this so many times that they believed they were invincible. All they did was win… until they didn’t! They were ambushed by their own success. I used to be a very, very good Ping-Pong Player. Maybe you know someone who is good at Ping-Pong, but I played where there were at least 15 feet on either side of the table and at each end. I still carry a Juki Butterfly paddle in my truck (just in case), and I used to have to spot anyone 7-12 points just to get them to play. At 69 years old, I regularly beat people half my age, but I am not as good as I once was.
Where am I going with this? Well… sometimes I would win so many games in a row that I would become complacent, and then WHAM… someone not really as good as I was might beat me two or three games in a row… and when I lost one, it affected my confidence, and usually, I would lose two or three games in a row to a very inferior player. I am not bragging, but I was damn good. I miss it, along with basketball, baseball, and softball. But I digress…
Human beings, when they routinely excel at something frequently (and always at some juncture) become complacent, overconfident, and lose their edge. I have been through it, and it makes no difference if you make $50,000 dollars a year or $20 Million Dollars a year. Athletes frequently play up to their competition just as often as they play down to their competition. The Dodgers beat their little brother all season but became complacent and overconfident and lost three games to them in the playoffs before they could recover.
The Dodgers were the best team, but the Padres beat them in the playoffs. Just like the 1988 Dodgers, who were 1-11 against the NY Mets in the regular season when they found their mojo and won out! Things like that defy logic, but it is so typical of human beings. Adversity builds character, while overconfidence and complacency breed it. The Dodgers thought they could just sleepwalk through the Padres… but they couldn’t! It’s over – They lost to a team that was not as good, but as we have seen repeatedly – the Best Team does not always win! If you think the 1988 Dodgers were the best team, you need some serious help… but they were the team that won it all! Being the best team and winning it all are not mutually exclusive.
That brings us to 2023, and the Dodgers have lost a boatload of free agents while signing only Clayton Kershaw, Shelby Miller, and Jason Heyward, while the Padres have built an empire that seemingly is stacked to beat the Dodgers. Not so fast! The Dodgers are resetting the salary cap. That we know. Ray Charles told me that even he could see that. If the Dodgers do not make another deal (and I am not saying that they won’t), the Dodgers will not be favored to beat the Padres… but they will be favored to be in the playoffs.
There’s a whole lot of time and Spring Training to go, but this could be the Dodgers team at the start 2023:
C – Will Smith/ Austin Barnes
1B – Freddie Freeman
2B – Mike Busch
SS – Gavin Lux
3B- Miguel Vargas
LF – Jason Heyward
CF – James Outman/Trayce Thompson
RF- Mookie Bettes
DH – Max Muncy
Bench – Chris Taylor
That team could win 85-88 games in my opinion… maybe more. Then there is that “Trade Deadline” when AF could make a move if needed. Jason Heyward is a Wild Card. Nothing is expected of him. He may fade into oblivion, and maybe CT3 becomes the Left Fielder. Maybe Vivas, Leonard, or Amaya is ready to be a utility man. Maybe this team struggles in the first half, and Andrew Friedman has to make some trades at the Trade Deadline… But what if they didn’t? Could the tables be turned in 2023? What if RVS and Aaron Bates suddenly “fixed” Heyward? “Well, they couldn’t fix Bellinger!” I don’t know why, but sometimes one player is just more receptive in a certain case or situation. I am not implying anything bad about Cody, but sometimes you hear one voice and not another, One thing doesn’t resonate while another one does.
I will just watch the process. I think Heyward has little chance… but it’s a low risk – high reward move. I have no predictions about Jason Heyward… that would be foolish. With Shelby Miller, we know the guy has had some excellent stuff in the past but has repeatedly failed lately. I presume that the Dodgers are looking at him as a reliever, but maybe it’s as a starter or swingman… We shall see. He just the kind of rehabilitation project that the Dodgers seem to love.
Maybe, the Dodgers need to go into the season as the underdogs so that they have to “fight” to get to the playoffs. This forces them to play meaningful games in August and September. That is something they had little experience in doing… except in 2021 when they were fighting it out with the Midgets and ultimately beating them…. only to lose to the steamrolling Braves.
Right about now, Andrew Friedman is “lurking” in the background. He is shopping at the Dollar Store and I mean that is a good way. A year from now, this offseason will look a lot different, especially as fans put into perspective how much morons like AJ Preller and his complicit owner had to overpay for certain players. For example, Preller paid $100 Million more for Xander Bogaerts than the nearest bidder! Your perspective will change by next year, and I still like what the Dodgers are doing as they are forced to wait on the Trevor Bauer decision.
The Court of Public Opinion has changed its verdict. Most people I have talked to… and especially women, feel like Bauer was set up. I live in the Midwest… the Bible Belt, and many people here believe Bauer’s suspension should be overturned. I do too. Most people do not understand what constitutes “evidence” in a legal setting, but they do understand fairness and equal treatment. Deshawn Watson has served an 11-game NFL suspension after over two dozen women accused him of sexual misconduct during massage appointments. Bauer has one accuser (“evidence,” remember?) and her story has been blown to hell and back with the video that recently came out. In case you forgot, this is what she said Trevor Bauer did to her:
Whatever happens we are looking forward to ANOTHER interesting year. There will be plenty of comments and as fans it looks like a lot of fun. Of course winning is MORE fun. But interesting no matter what
That lineup is really weak. IMHO would be tough to win 85 games unless the pitching is lights out. Which easily could be the case.
More and more it looks like the Dodgers will stand pat this winter , trying to get under the luxury tax.
If this nets us Ohtani and Sasaki (who will get posted next season) I am fine with it. Looks like a transition year trying the kids and seeing what they can bring to the table.
Maybe they sign Swanson or Correia but probably only if Bauers suspension is upheld.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Taylor would be starting.
If you are trying to put the best players on the field, then YES, CT3 would be there, but I think he plays better as a Utility Guy, and you have to give the rookies room to grow. I think it is possible the Dodgers will have 3 or 4 Rookies on the Opening Day roster. If they do, they are there to play… not sit.
Mark, good insight on the 2022 team not being game-ready, as well as a 1988 that was. That said, injuries played a big role in 2021 and 2022.
I believe the Dodgers would have won BOTH the past two series if not for injuries.
In 2021, the Dodgers acquired Sherzer and T Turner – we were loaded! But, injuries to Muncy and Turner neutered our offense and we lost close games to the Braves.
Last year, 2022, injuries to our pitching staff (Buehler, Gonsolin) left us with one proven ace, Julio. Mgt decided not to add an arm to replace Walker during the season and when Gonso went down, so did our chances of winning. I love Kersh, but we were not going to win a WS by climbing on his back. To a lesser extent there were injuries to the offense as well that impacted us entering the playoffs — CT3 was not right, J Turner was hampered by something per usual, Muncy batted .200 all season and did not bloom as expected in the playoffs, and Belli’s mental approach to hitting was dismal. Right there, over a third of our offense was trending down when we we needed them to be at their best. IMO, we needed to rent an ace and add a big bat to win.
Mark, I challenge you to ping-pong 😉
I played the champion of Haikkado for charity.
I can still feel the ball spinning in my bellybutton.
I don’t know how old you are, but at 69 I no longer dive for balls, and my shoulder is pretty creaky, but I would try.
I usually play up to my competition so I would at least give you a workout.
The Padres “Should” be a very good team next season. Xander is a big add, he makes a lot of contact, hits for average and is a line drive machine, a lot like Corey Seager. But, moving from Boston as his home field to Petco should cool him off a little. Their top 5 players make for a very good lineup and if they add a DH, they’ll be deep until they get to the bottom three in their order.
The Dodgers top 5 is still very good with a couple of ifs.
Soto vs Betts
Freeman vs Machado
Muncy vs Tatis
Smith vs Bogaerts
Lux vs Cronenworth
Objectively speaking. The top two positions are a wash. If I had a team, I would have a hard time choosing between Soto and Betts, or Freeman and Machado. They are very close in talent for bashing baseballs.
Muncy and Tatis is going to be weird one for the upcoming season. Who knows how Tatis is going to respond to multiple wrist injuries, rumors of being traded, reprimands from the front office and moving him off shortstop. Muncy should go back to being a big home run threat who walks a lot. Two years ago, this is a no brainer, but for the upcoming season, production could be close.
Smith isn’t the hitter that Bogaerts is, but it’s closer than many would think. The main problem is that Smith will be resting, as catchers do, for a sizable percentage of his games. For the last 5 years. Xander has averaged a little over 130 OPS+ while Smith has average 129 OPS+ in his 4 years in the league. Moving to Petco might hurt Xander making it a wash.
Lux was better than Cronenworth last season in OPS, but was a little worse in OPS+. Gavin is headed into his age 25 season, whereas Cronenworth was still in the minors when he as 25. There’s a good chance that Gavin is still getting better.
There’s a chance that the Dodgers top 5 hitters are as good or better or worse than the Padres top 5. The point is It’s very close.
The big difference is going to be the length of the order. The Padres have a hole at DH right now, Nola at C (649 OPS), Grisham in CF (626 OPS) and Kim (708 OPS), most likely at second base. None of them were good hitters last season. Chris Taylor’s (677) injury filled, worst year of his career was better than Nola and Grisham and not far off of Kim’s. So a lot of this is going to depend on just how good Vargas, Busch and Outman are going to be next season, or what AF can do with the remaining money he has to spend.
Overall, out pitching staff is better, top to bottom and our lineup could also be better. So, don’t think the Padres are just going to run away with this.
Miguel Vargas is the Wild Card – On offense, he is very similar to Bogaerts.
The Dodgers may have lost a lot, but if some of the Rookies can deliver, the offense could be even better in 2023.
IF
BIG IF
On offense, he is very similar to Bogaerts.
How so?
He’s always hit in the 300’s. Doesn’t K a lot. Sprays liners all over the field. You can also say he’s a justin Turner type hitter.
Vargas is similar to Bogaerts the way that Busch reminds some people (well, at least one) to Eddie Mathews.
We engage in a lot of wishful thinking here, don’t we?
Never mind that Vargas and Busch have yet to prove they can hit major league pitching….
And that’s OK!
Maybe they will live up to the hype.
And maybe, just maybe, Lux proves he is a big league shortstop–and maybe he rewards the Dodgers’ faith by fully unleashing the offense we were told to expect.
And we can apply best-case scenarios for Outman, Trayce, Heyward, Taylor and others.
Right now, it looks like the Dodgers have three reliable performers: Mookie, Freddie and Will Smith. I’d like to think that Muncy returns to pre-injury form, but that feels wishful too. And I hope JT was enough for a last hurrah–but he still isn’t signed.
RVS couldn’t fix Bellinger or Gallo. Not expecting much from Heyward but there is no real downside to his signing. Hope third times the charm.
I am hoping for the Dodgers to fix Heyward… but I am not expecting it either. However, you can’t fix anyone… unless you try, and really, it’s about giving them the tools and understanding to fix themselves. It is a very long, long shot… but not impossible.
From MLBTR:
There wasn’t any doubt that owner Steve Cohen was prepared to keep spending in order to keep his 101-game winning team in line to be World Series contenders. However, the spending spree has just continued to reach record levels, as Roster Resource projects the Mets for a 2023 payroll of roughly $334.68MM, and a luxury tax number of just over $349.5MM.
This not only dwarfs the $233MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold, it even soars past the fourth and highest ($293MM) tier of the CBT. The fourth tier was instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement as a further penalty for excessive spending, and was unofficially nicknamed the “Steve Cohen Tax” given how the owner made no secret of his intentions to heavily increase payroll. Since this is the Mets’ second consecutive year of tax overage, they’ll face a two-time repeater penalty, as well as a 90 percent overage tax on any dollar spent beyond the $233MM mark. This works out to around $104.85MM in tax penalty — according to Fangraphs, 11 teams currently aren’t slated to spend more than $104.85MM on their entire 2023 payrolls.
There is something wrong with a system where one team can pay $335 Million in Payroll and $105 Million in Luxury Tax which is more than 11 other teams.
If money is no object there’s literally no risk to their signings.
I see a lot of love from some for Swanson but in his 7 year career he’s a 95 OPS+ player, he’s just shy of 29 years old, he’s a slightly below average player but he wants to cash like he’s walking on water .
W. Adames is a younger player, just turned 27, in a 5-year career his OPS+ is 111.
Swanson has the QO attached, so I don’t think there is a chance in hell Swanson some to LA.
Why not? It’s not like the Dodgers have a good pick to lose anyways.
They also lose a Million is International Signing Money!
I’m not buying Mark’s hypothesis that the 22 Dodgers became complacent and overconfident causing the disappointing play against the Padres. Mark – “The Dodgers beat their little brother all season but became complacent and overconfident and lost three games to them in the playoffs before they could recover.”
I would bet that if you asked every player, none would say that they took the Padres lightly and were over-confident. We didn’t lose to the Padres because we were overconfident. We lost because they played better than we did in a short series. (see “why” below)
We’ve tried going into the playoffs 2 different ways the last 2 playoffs. This year we got a big lead and Mark correctly stated – “For at least the last 60 to 90 days, they never played a game that really meant anything.” Yup, seemed like a better plan than 2021. We were rested, as healthy as we could be with the surviving players, had the pitching set up – no excuses.
In 2021, we battled the Giants until the last day. That playoff excuse was we wore ourselves out, spent the pitching down the stretch and should have gone in the tank the final days to get rested for the playoffs. That didn’t work either. Apparently, there is no right answer and good way to go into these playoffs.
I posted this just before the start of our playoff series with the Padres:
Why the Dodgers will win the World Series in 2022:
It’s a team with veterans who know how to win. Of the 100 win seasons in Dodgers franchise history, four have come in the past six seasons.
We can pitch. We lead the Majors in ERA. The bullpen is loaded with arms, especially LHP. We can mix and match like no other team.
The lineup can be dangerous and relentless with past MVP’s
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball and have been all year.
We stay injury free throughout the playoffs
We play selfless team baseball by moving runners, timely hitting and solid defense. Make routine plays, routinely.
The Dodgers will lose because:
* The bats can struggle with quality pitching. In our losses we hit .200.
Fact – Mookie .143, 1 RBI, Gallo DNP, Belli benched 2 games .143, 6 k, 0 RBI, Thompson moved to center .154. 6 K, 0 RBI, CT3 0 BA, 5 K,0 RBI, JT .154 3 K, 0 RBI.
* The faucet can be wide open but can shut off for long stretches.
FACT – The faucet was off. Team hit .227 / 704 w/ 44 K’s
* The bottom of the order fails to hit and K’s too much.
FACT – The outfield had 1 RBI
* Doc makes questionable moves. He’s been good all year but pulls a dead rabbit out of his hat.
FACT – That happened again. Removed Anderson too early. Never moved runners and questionable bullpen usage
* We just run into a hot team in a short series. It’s hard to win the World Series and that’s why there are no repeat winners since 2000.
FACT – The Padres outplayed us and looked more inspired
* Shit happens. They say they all even out but maybe not in a 5 or 7 games series. Luck is in play.
Fact – We saw all but 1 division eliminated. Only Houston met expectations.
* The Dodgers don’t have glaring weaknesses. So the most likely reason they don’t win the World Series has more to do with what another team could do rather than what LA can’t do.
Fact – I was wrong on this one. I knew left field was an issue, the bottom of the order was an issue, Doc could be an issue, and starters going 5 innings and 85 pitches, is still an issue for me.
Super stars aren’t born, they are made and the Dodgers franchise is far best at making superstars above any other and has the record shows. I think the division is ours for the losing, that it’ll first appear to be stumbling but will take foot and and win the division. Simply buying a team doesn’t usually go well and doesn’t carry so much meaning in victory as homegrown talent expresses what a real victory is. I don’t care for being called “the Wall Street Dodgers” or “The west coast Yankees”. San Diego will never be our big brother, not even this next season. I would not be shocked the least to see over 100 games at season’s end. I was far happier when Seager played SS than I was with Turner. I’d like to see loyalty returned for the fans to meaningly cheer for. But there ain’t so many fans that display loyalty to players who’ve done so much for them like the fans stating it’s time to throw away Clayton Kershaw. Kenley Jansen wasn’t driven for the $, he went elsewhere because LA fans have turned into a ‘What have you done for us this last game?’ sort. There’s my ADHD kickin in again. But I can’t be the only one that feels this way, can I?
I like the youth movement, but I just wish it was tempered a bit with less reliance on the youth in so many positions. Expecting Vargas, Busch, Pepiot, Stone, Miller, Amaya, Miller and Outman to take the place of Bellinger, JT, TT, Walker etc. is asking too much in a marathon that is the 162 game season.
A veteran SP (perhaps Bauer is that guy), some more veteran RP and maybe a proven veteran outfielder that is not Jason Heyward would inspire me with some confidence . I’m very leery about opening the season with Vargas, Outman and Busch all in the starting line-up.
In theory, it’s one thing to think a heavily-laden young team can win 88-92 games and additions can be made at the deadline, but look what AF did at the deadline last year by only adding Joey Gallo. It takes two to tango and with more teams making the post season they will be less inclined to trade.
Trust me, I want to see the kids graduate to the big leagues but don’t want to see too many, too soon and have the Dodgers be a good but not great team. IMHO AF has to swing a trade for some additional veteran talent like Brian Reynolds, Ahmed Rosario, Willy Adames, Miguel Rojas or some other unknown player that has not been linked to the Dodgers or the trade market.
What will AF do?
Miguel Rojas?? Ahmed Rosario??
So, you really want these guys starting?? I don’t think so. Hanser Alberto like players are prefered to MBush??
Amed Rosario had 4.2 War at SS last year for a playoff team. He hit 282 this year and 283 last year.
He is a much better player than Hanser Alberto and we can only hope that Busch will be this good when he makes it to MLB. Rosario is 27 and only two years older than Busch, yet he has played in MLB for 6 years already. So yes, Rosario is a potential trade option.
Rosario would be OK at the right price.
SS is probably the weakest spot in terms of depth. Lux, Taylor…Amaya?
As for why the Dodgers collapsed in 2022, allow me to be a broken record.
AF got totally outplayed by every one of his counterparts at midseason. In past years, he made big deals for guys like Scherzer+ Trea, Machado and Darvish–all top-tier players.
This past season he scored Chris Martin (good!) and Joey Gallo (not good.) The bench was so weak with a still-slumping Gallo and overmatched Vargas that Roberts had Barnes pinch hit for Belli. Given his choices, it was the right call.
Just about other playoff team added players that had a positive contribution.
–Padres got Hader (top-tier) and Drury (and this was well after the Soto + Bell deal).
–Phils added Syndergaard and Marsh.
–Mariners added Castillo.
–Yankees added Benitendi and Bader.
–Astros added Mancini.
That’s off the top of my head. But I think it’s clear we expected more from AF. And now we’ve got Shelby Miller and Jason Heyward.
Well, it should be interesting.
Play the kids.
I agree. Play the kids. There’s 3 ways for a player to go;
1. He never gets the opportunity. Never gets a legit shot due to injuries, buried in the organization, or gets labeled AAAA player.
2. Gets a shot and doesn’t cut it as a big league player.
3. Gets a shot and runs with it.
It’s time for the kids to get their shot and some aren’t getting any younger despite limited legit playing time in the Show.
And there really isn’t a cap on how many youngsters are ready to make an impact. Bear would remember better than I but the Dodgers had a big youth movement in 1973. Bill Russell took over for Wills in 72 playing 121 games at short at age 24. Garvey moved onto 1st base with 76 games in 73 at age 24. Ron Cey took over at 3rd with 147 games in 73 at age 25. And Davey Lopes took over 2nd with 135 games in 73, at age 28 after 5 years in the minors as an outfielder. All 4 basically rookies at their positions.
It’s time to fish or cut bait with our young prospects. No cap on how many.
Heyward kind of reminds me of another outfielder who was traded for in 2018. He was not expected to make the club. As a matter of fact all of the experts projected he would be released by the end of spring training and the Dodgers would simply eat his contract. He played so well, he forced himself into the starting lineup and in the early months of the season, he carried the team on his back and ended up making the All-Star team. Matt Kemp. I am not saying Heyward will suddenly be an All-Star caliber player. What I am saying is that anything is possible. Nice analysis Mark.
Where is Kevin Pillar? Is he still with the Dodgers? He should be fully healed next season.
Pillar is a Free Agent. Friedman is Free to sign him… I have heard nothing…
I thought the Dodgers would be interested, but they may see him as redundant with having Trayce.
He is probably seeking $3 to $4 Million, but if he doesn’t get that, Friedman might sign him.
Jack Harris of The LA Times wrote a good article articulating Andrew Freidman’s Methodology last week:
Since taking over the Dodgers’ front office nearly a decade ago, Andrew Friedman has tried to strike a careful balance while constructing the club’s roster:
Maximize the team’s chances of winning the World Series in each new season, while also maintaining its ability to remain a contender in the years to come.
Call it the doctrine of sustained success; the belief that championship windows don’t have to swing from completely open to all the way closed, but can rather be pried open permanently through shrewd top-to-bottom organizational execution.
“We’ve seen a lot of large-market teams compete over a short period of time, and then fall off a cliff,” Friedman said during this week’s annual winter meetings in San Diego, where his calculated philosophies were under the microscope again.
While many teams indulged in a nearly unprecedented spending spree, the Dodgers stuck to their principles and kept a tight grip on their purse strings.
They engaged in negotiations with several big-name players but didn’t splurge in an inflated market that has already seen more than $2 billion of guaranteed money dolled out.
It’s not that the Dodgers couldn’t use another splashy signing, with an experienced starting pitcher, a defensively capable center fielder and a potential new shortstop all on their offseason wish list.
It’s not as if they lacked the financial capital for a blockbuster move, with their current luxury tax payroll at around $189 million — almost $100 million less than last season and still well below the league’s $233 million luxury tax threshold.
Instead, the Dodgers evaluated the market, talked to agents and deemed the going rate for many players surpassed what they felt was a responsible, manageable, sustainable amount.
They came close to signing Justin Verlander, and insist they won’t hesitate to swing a big deal later this winter, for either a free agent or trade target, if the right opportunity emerges.
But in a winter of rollicking — and what some might argue reckless — spending, the Dodgers are hoping their restraint will ultimately help them conquer the sport again.
“The one thing that’s been constant,” Friedman said of the team’s approach, “is putting ourselves in the best position to win a championship while also keeping that window open for as far as we can see out.”
Such messaging harkens back to Friedman’s early years running one of baseball’s most storied teams, when he was tasked with revamping a club saddled with a bloated payroll and sputtering farm system.
As the team’s payroll decreased every season from 2015 to 2018, its ability to instead develop prospects and nurture big league talent helped cement the foundation of a new-look contender.
The Dodgers didn’t always sign top-of-the-line free agents. But it hardly halted their transformation into one of the sport’s most consistent regular-season winners.
The postseason was a different story, with the Dodgers’ annual shortcomings in the fall increasingly blamed on their unambitious moves the previous winter.
That finally changed in 2020, when Mookie Betts’ arrival preceded a long-sought World Series championship — and became the first in a string of high-profile roster moves.
In 2021, they signed Trevor Bauer, then traded for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer at that season’s trade deadline. Last spring, they shocked the league again by luring Freddie Freeman after his departure from the Atlanta Braves.
In hindsight this week, Friedman argued those moves — which helped escalate the club’s payroll past the league’s luxury tax threshold and, at more than $280 million this past season, to club-record heights — were essentially the Dodgers’ effort at going all-in.
They tried jarring the window open a little bit more, hoping it wouldn’t suddenly slam shut.
The only problem: The Dodgers failed to bring another title, or even National League pennant, to Los Angeles.
Entering this offseason, all of it left them at an awkward crossroads: keep spending really, really big … or try to recalibrate back at more sustainable levels.
To this point, the Dodgers are opting for the latter. They’ve shed payroll and positioned themselves to reset their luxury tax penalties. They’ve held onto a new wave of prospects now knocking on the door of the big league roster.
It’s not a strategy that comes without risk.
Though their 2023 team is probably already playoff-caliber — at the start of the offseason, Fangraphs’ ZiPS projection still predicted the Dodgers to be a 91-win, first-place team — the league’s other title contenders have made more high-profile improvements during this week’s flurry of free-agent activity.
The team will certainly bolster the roster before opening day, but probably not with superstar additions — barring a change of heart toward shortstop Carlos Correa, whom they’re intrigued by but not expected to pursue given his involvement in the Houston Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal; or a sudden collapse in a pitching market now headlined by Carlos Rodón and Kodai Senga, who have also received interest from the Dodgers but will probably earn offers beyond the team’s preferred price range.
Friedman defended the Dodgers’ approach this week, pushing back against the notion that the team could benefit from another all-in approach.
“This is just not the sport where that reward is the same as in other sports,” he said. “The sustained success part comes — and we’ve seen over the last seven, eight years — [by] interjecting young, talented players into the mix.”
Given their conservative approach this week, the Dodgers clearly believe they don’t have to keep spending at levels even their deep-pocketed ownership group might be unwilling to stomach.
It’s a long, but worthy read and also shows that The Times still offers Journalistic Valve. Jack Harris is very good, IMHO.
Good article by Harris.
And thanks for posting Mark.
I totally understand Friedman passing on the majority of these free agent signings this year.
Degrom, Bogaerts, Nimmo, Turner are Long expensive contracts.
But more modest contracts to Tyler Anderson, Senga, Haniger and maybe Kiermaier seemed like reasonable options for Dodgers, but they lost out.
I also agree with playing some younger guys, but they must earn their position. I am confident that Vargas will be a good MLB player, but Outman, Busch, Amaya are long shots to be everyday players. Many recent prospects were expected to make an impact on Dodgers and faded out. Prospects like Calhoun, Diaz, Toles, Peters, Hoese, McKinstry, Raley, Reks, and many others were predicted to be MLB players but did not pan out. To start the season expecting more than one rookie to be an everyday player is risky.
Tyler Anderson was theirs to lose–and they lost him, apparently because AF wouldn’t give him a 3-year contract.
So he signed with the Angels before the market really formed. Judging by the deals that other pitchers scored, the Angels got a bargain. When Kershaw, Gonsolin and May get hurt, the Dodgers will really miss Anderson.
Jason Heyward? Seriously?
I don’t mind the youth movement, but the Dodgers need to pursue another division title and a return to the playoffs. They have to do better than Heyward. Fortunately the Dodgers still have plenty of time to fill a couple of holes.
With or without Trevor Bauer, the starting rotation looks pretty good. But the Dodgers probably need 10 to 12 available starters to get through a season. They could use more depth.
They need a center fielder. Preferably one that can hit. Maybe they find the solution in the trade market.
Still think they need to sign Justin Turner.
I realize the debate as to why the Dodgers got bounced early will go on, but the reality is centered on their inability to hit during the playoffs. Plenty of opportunities, lots of strikeouts with runners in scoring position.
That’s an organizational problem, not just in LA, but across baseball.
While I like the youth movement, the reality is we should expect some players to struggle. Mike Trout hit .220 the first time up.
I’m sure Friedman is focused on winning it all and staying under the tax line. I think he can handle this. Looking forward to spring training.
As to the Mets, trying to spend your way into a championship doesn’t usually turn out well. The Padres on much better on paper, maybe on the field too. The difference maker may boil down to the pitching, starting and relief.
F the Padres
Way too early to think that Hayward will be their only position player pick-up. Someone posted the other day that Rios had signed with the Twins, but I cannot find that anywhere.
Exactly
I think Heyward is a low-risk, medium-reward move.
And that’s OK!
I read that Rios signed with the Brewers. I hope he avoids injury. Always thought Dodger could spare him as a sweetener in a big deal. That would have better than losing him for nothing.
Unless I missed something, Benitendi, Confort, Wil Myers and a few other decent veteran outfielders are still looking for work. Pillar too.
We rightly expect the Dodgers to do better. And we reasonably thought Kiermaier might be in Dodger blue. Dodgers were outbid for Senga, it seems. (Will Bauer return soon?) Not sure if they were in on Yoshida–but if he’s great I’ll be sure to say “toldja!” Anyway, AF sure seems to have a lot of faith in the kids.
we dont have to break the bank, but could we at least make a substantial withdrawal? i still say leave lux at second and either sign dansby or trade for adames! i also agree with an earlier dodger fan , why not take a shot at drury? mark i hear you about the qualifying pick, but we have an abundance of top prospects, we need a shortstop and a left fielder! love taylor(wahoo) but he is not an everyday player! with a shortstop and left fielder and( maybe bauer), we will still kick padre aaaas!
Norcal made a good point. It’s not bad to incorporate rookies, but it’s pretty sketchy to try to incorporate three at the same time. Filling one hole goes a long way in having the depth to set a struggling player, or to survive injuries. I don’t think and I certainly hope the Dodgers aren’t done yet. Maybe the Dodgers will clear some farm and bring in a bat, or we sign Correa. It doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of options left. In fact, JT looks like the best option right now, and that’s pathetic.
I still can’t get by the choke v the Madres. Haven’t touched a baseball blog at all. We really flopped. I can’t remember a bigger Choke since ‘86 Red Sox v Mets. That was bad but , this was far, far worse.
That said, I hope they can Roberts at All-Star break, we find a legit left fielder (no more platoons! Heyward!!??? no way he’s done), Will Smith turns into J Bench and we lay low at 89-95 wins then charge thru the playoffs w/o all the ‘home field’ b.s.
Dodgers got the talent. Mind set another thing altogether though.
Bye Doc. Respect but, time’s up.
I still believe the five-day layoff really affected them in a negative way while the Padres were fighting the Mets for their playoff lives. Just like the Dodgers had to beat St. Louis last year just to get in. I do not think they choked. All the games were close. Roberts just signed a extension. Sorry, but he is going nowhere.
Agreed, the Met series got the Madres ramped up to go hard.
Would a Kirk Gibson taken that effort agst SD? We were too ‘professional/low key’. Dodgers need a hell raiser on the field. We’re too slick at times. Will Smith should grow into that role. He’s the guy I want to become captain and leader.
I’d like to see the Dodgers add a DH with power. We saw Muncy peak a few years ago, and 20 hrs batting .210 is not good enough in 2023 for a team with our resources. It’s great that Muncy walks but the team needs a slugger at DH. Max looked overmatched last year in key situations.
JD Martinez?
They are supposedly interested in JD Martinez. If they do not bring JT back, I think he is a real option. They tried to trade for him a couple of years ago.
JD scares me. In two of the last three years, his SLG% has been .389 and .488. His HR dropped to 16 while he did hit 43 doubles. His hitting against RHP has diminished to .261 in 2022, and his OPS is .729. He ain’t the power guy he used to be. He will be 36 next year and is not a great baserunner. I guess on the right deal, I would be interested, but he will be 36 next season, and his power seems to be waning.
I think you have Max Muncy mixed up with someone else.
How has Muncy peaked a few years ago? Since coming to LA, Max has been remarkably consistent. He hit 35 HR in 2018, 35 in 2019, 12 in 2020 (short season, but was on pace for 34), 36 in 2021, and because being injured most of the year in 2022, he only hit 21.
Still, his OPS with LA is .850, and his OB% is .361.
Max Muncy is the least of our problems.
What the Mets and Padres have done this off season has left my jaw on the floor. There is dope fiend moves and then there is dropping acid, smoking a pound of crack and washing down a bag of shrooms with PCP laced Wild Turkey directly out of the bottle. I know Steven Cohen has around $20 Billion in his back pocket. But at some point economics have to fit into calculus. Payroll approaching $400M??? With $100m in dead money going to luxury tax? Insane.
Padres? Yes, they look to be very good in 2023. But They literally have sold out most of the next decade for a shot to win in the next two years. They aren’t playing in NY. I cannot conceive of how ownership is supporting that kind of insane spending on super long term contracts. It’s obvious that they have zero intention of resigning Soto. How could they? Winning a World Series certainly increases the enterprise value of a team. But they’ll be the 2022 Nationals by 2025. WS win or no WS win.
I’m sure AF had intentions to go hard on some of these free agents. But I wouldn’t touch these massive long term contracts. This remind me of all the years I’ve followed Warren Buffet. When people were going nuts and paying massive sums for every internet company in the late 90s, he bought boring old consumer goods companies. 95% of those internet companies went under or were sold for Pennie’s a few years later. When people were loading their books with CDOs and Mortgage derivatives he was working on the acquisition of a boring old railroad company for around $30b. BNSF is now worth $200B. He has stuck to what makes sense to him and simply won’t participate in the various manias that come around every so often. And it’s worked. For decades.
Dodgers need to stick to their guns. It’s better to roll the dice on the kids you have in the system than it is to go head first, eyes wide open into a black hole. Maybe the Dodgers only win 85 next year. Maybe they win 95. What they won’t be is a sinking ship in 2-3 years. Sometimes you just have to sit things out. I don’t believe the Dodgers have any choice in this kind of market. Baseball is in trouble. Demographically. This kind of spending is not sustainable. This off-season is a mania. You sit out manias.
As for Bauer, it is a strange situation. I tend to agree with Mark that he is getting screwed. And I don’t understand the variance between his punishment and other MLB players with similar allegations leveled against them. Much less the difference between how the NFL handles these things verses MLB. But as I have said before, Bauer has no friends in the game. He went out of his way to stick his finger in people’s eyes for years. As unfair as that might be, his only hope for a friend is the court system. Nobody is going to go to bat for him. That said, I hate the situation MLB has out the Dodgers in. His salary for 2023 is still hanging over the Dodgers head. I have to think that further complicates an already complicated offseason. I wish MLB would just settle the matter once and for all. I don’t understand how this has and continues to play out.
That is a great post Jayne. I too continue to obsess about how the Commish displayed his dislike for Trevor and the Dodgers. The Dodgers can’t afford to say much but with their self- imposed gag order, they keep getting screwed as this appeal drags on. How can a team plan ahead with 40 million plus blowing in the wind. It was a Black day when Bauer was signed and no end in the near sights.
Good article Mark; I agree with much of what you said.
One question I have is the impact of new rules governing baseball in 2023: the elimination of infield shifts; the institution of a pitch clock; bigger bases; and, a limited number of pickoff attempts. It seems to me these changes could significantly impact the way the game is played moving forward.
Maybe this is another reason the Dodgers appear to be in a “reboot” mode. Give the rookies their chance and get younger; don’t get into crazy bidding wars for 40 year olds; build a financial war chest; and then invest in talent that fits the new brand of baseball being played.
Maybe these rules won’t really change the way the game is played; the type of talent to be in demand; nor the coaching philosophies in baseball development programs. Nevertheless, I am intigued to watch it unfold in the upcoming season.
Be interested in hearing some of the informed opinions on LADT.
I think youth and speed will need to be a staple of the offensive game. I think the new rules will impact the game to increase hitting and run scoring. Additionally, stealing bases will be come a thing again!
Heyman:
Star free agent SS Dansby Swanson appears to be possibility for the Dodgers, where he could reunite with Freddie Freeman. Swanson, who married USWNT/Chicago Red Stars star Mallory Pugh Saturday, also has drawn interest from Cubs/others. Incumbent Braves remain stealthy or quiet.
Coming from the same guy who announced Judge was going to SF. 😉
If Andrew decides to do that, it means that he (like me) does not think Lux can play SS and it is worth losing $$$$ and picks. I could live with Swanson at SS, if we have better hitters at other positions.
Here’s what that might look like:
1. Lux 2B
2. Betts RF
3. Freeman 1B
4. Smith C
5. Muncy DH
6. Vargas 3B
7. Swanson SS
8. LF
9. Outman/Thompson
CT3.
Well, at this point the Mets might offer him 17 years for $1.2 Billion. Because, hey why not at this point?
They could always get rid of the bottom feeders. Make a 4 A league with the Pirates, Marlins, Royals the first three members, add Tampa, Milwaukee and Seattle. 6 team league. Let em play 130 games and then the top two play for the 4 A title. There are simply too many teams and not enough premium talent and they are still talking about expansion.
Maybe a mode like the Premier league.
Pirates would kill it in AA. League average in AAA.
I understand the Pirates, Marlins and Royals but Tampa and Milwaukee reach the playoffs more often than not and Seattle finally has their act together.
How about the Reds, A’s and Rockies or Tigers?
Everyone thinking Heyward could be a factor this season are the same people that thought the same thing of Bellinger last season! Different number, same train wreck!
Sign Justin Turner for 3B. Put Outman in CF. Put Vargas at 2B. Move Lux to SS. Trade for Reynolds for LF. Done. My 2 cents.
Good and straightforward plan. Dodgers could stay under the luxury tax and field a competitive team. And then add as necessary at the trade deadline.
I would probably alternate JT, Muncy, Vargas, and CT between 3rd, 2nd and DH in this scenario.
And the trade for Reynolds would likely cost Busch, Miller and two lesser prospects.
2B will be harder this year with shift rules. Don’t see Vargas in middle of diamond.
I think that if Reynolds is traded, it will be during the season.