The first cuts are in and The Dodgers are letting go around the fringes of the payroll by not exercising club options on some lackluster players, insurance policies and one fan favorite. They’ve seemingly cut ties with total bust, Danny Duffy, mostly bust Jimmy Nelson, an underperforming clubhouse pet Hanser Alberto and roster stalwart Justin Turner. All of this adds up to about a $26 million dollars in savings and 5 more open roster spots. As of now, the roster stands at 32 players.
Active Payroll: $98,500,000 – Players Under Contract – 7 Players
Freddie Freeman
Mookie Betts
Chris Taylor
Max Muncy
Blake Treinen
Daniel Hudson
Austin Barnes
Est. Arbitration Salaries: $56,000,000 – 12 Players
Cody Bellinger $17M
Julio Urias $13.5M
Walker Buehler $8M
Will Smith $5.2M
Anthony Gonsolin $3.5M
Dustin May $1.4M
Caleb Ferguson $1.1M
Trayce Thompson $1.7M
Edwin Rios $1M
Yency Almonte $1M
Brusdar Graterol $1.2M
Evan Phillips $1.4M
Pre-Arbitration Players $4,000,000 – 13 Players
Phil Bickford
Justin Bruihl
Victor Gonzalez
Michael Grove
Andre Jackson
Eddys Leonard
Gavin Lux
James Outman
Ryan Pepiot
Evan Phillips
Alex Vesia
Jorbit Vivas
Lucas Williams
Suspended Salaries: $32,000,000 – 1 Player
Trevor Bauer
Active Payroll (Players under Contract): $98,500,000 –7 Players
Est. Arbitration Salaries: $56,000,000 – 12 Players
Est. Pre-Arbitration Salaries: $3,975,000 – 13 Players
Suspended Salaries: $32,000,000 – 1 Player
Projected Total Payroll: $190,475,000
2023 Tax Threshold $233,000,000
CBT Payroll room 42,525,000
2022 Total Payroll $274,343.119
As of now the Dodgers have roughly $40 Million to spend and the current news is that Clayton Kershaw’s contract is nearing completion. With Clayton coming back, the roster stands at 33 players, not counting Trevor Bauer. Of course, the number or players will increase once the Dodgers decide who to protect from the Rule 5 draft.
Rule 5 Eligible Players
The Dodgers have 15 minor league players who will be eligible for the Rule – 5 draft. They will need to add them to the 40 man roster or risk losing them to an acquiring team. The caveat is that any player that’s lost to the draft must remain on the 40 man roster or Injured list for the entire season, or the player must be offered back to the original team.
Michael Busch 2B
Diego Cartaya C
Johnny DeLuca OF
Kody Hoese 3B
Brandon Lewis 3B
Andy Pages OF
Jose Ramos OF
Ryan Ward OF
Jeff Belge LHP
Hyun-il-Choi RHP
Carlos Duran RHP
Braydon Fisher RHP
Alec Gamboa LHP
Nick Robertson RHP
Jerming Rosario RHP
There’s 4 big names on the list of Rule 5 eligible players this year. When looking at the pitchers, it’s obvious to see they’re lacking in top level talent, or anyone realistically close to contributing at the major league level. It also seems that the Dodgers tend to protect fewer players than most fans would want them to protect for varying reasons and I can’t recall any that got away and made an immediate impact for the claiming team.
They will obviously add Diego Cartaya, Michael Bush and Andy Pages to the 40 man ahead of the rule 5 draft and I would say they should also add Jose Ramos, but he only played as high as A+ last season. There’s also a case for Ryan Ward, but it’s doubtful they’ll protect 5 guys. The smart bet is that they protect Pages, Cartaya and Busch only.
Michael Busch 2B
Diego Cartaya C
Andy Pages OF
This brings our roster to 36, Kershaw makes 37 and Bauer would make 38.
Current Depth Chart on the 40-man roster
Starting Pitching
Julio Urias – L
Clayton Kershaw – L
Anthony Gonsolin – R
Dustin May – R
Michael Grove – R
Andre Jackson – R
Ryan Pepiot – R
Walker Buehler – R – Disabled list, possibly out for the season
Trevor Bauer – R- Suspended
Relief Pitching
Daniel Hudson – R
Caleb Ferguson – L
Yency Almonte – R
Brusdar Graterol – R
Evan Phillips – R
Phil Bickford – R
Justin Bruihl – L
Victor Gonzalez – L
Evan Phillips – R
Alex Vesia – L
Blake Treinen – R – Disabled list, possibly out for the season – Apparently went under the knife on Friday to repair his shoulder (Labrum/Rotary Cuff). Recovery time is 10 months, so it’s likely he won’t be pitching for us all season next year.
Catchers
Will Smith – R
Austin Barnes – R
Diego Cartaya – R
Infielders
Freddie Freeman – L
Max Muncy – L
Gavin Lux – L
Edwin Rios – L
Eddys Leonard – R
Jorbit Vivas – L
Michael Busch – L
Miguel Vargas – R
Outfielders
Mookie Betts – R
Cody Bellinger – L
Trayce Thompson – R
James Outman – L
Lucas Williams – R
Chris Taylor – R
Andy Pages – R
Now we’ll go back to the cap space and look at needs.
CBT Payroll room 42,525,000 – Minus Clayton’s contract
Suspended Salaries: $32,000,000
If we don’t pay Bauer’s salary because he’s suspended or traded, we’ll have about 70M to spend on improving the team if we want to dip a toe under the cap to reset penalties. We can kick that can down the road for another year and go ahead and sign a free agent while keeping in mind that Trevor’s contract will come off the books next year.
The Dodgers also offered qualifying offers to Trea Turner and Tyler Anderson. Trea will be certain to decline and Anderson might just accept. That will be $19.65 M leaving just over $22M for the remaining payroll spend to stay under the cap. Just about enough to sign JT and CK? Can they spend Trevor’s money on a big bat, or two marginal ones? If Trevor comes back, they’ll have a very full staff, if he doesn’t, they’ll have the same 5 they had at the end of the season and a ton of depth in the upper minors.
Now that we know where we stand, what are your ideas on how to spend the $42M to $74M and what is the 25 man roster that you’d come up with?
It sure looks like to me that Justin’s a goner. Their best prospect plays the same position and they have two others (Both Left Handed Bats) that can play 3rd base with Rios and Muncy. Perhaps Vargas will be working on his 2B skills or LF skills in the offseason.
Right now there’s a lot of bad infielders and outfielders taking up roster space. They also have some sunken money with Blake Treinen with an ill-advised extension during a season where he barely pitched, and will possibly not pitch again for this club.
During the Hot Stove, we’ll hear that the Dodgers are in on everyone including all the shortstops and Japanese import Kodai Senga. However, the roster payroll says and open roster spots say otherwise. There is some wiggle room, especially if you consider they’re a long ways from last year’s payroll total, but the roster doesn’t have a lot of open spots especially considering that Stone or Miller might be a likely add to the rotation at some point.
My guess is the Dodgers will go over the cap this coming season, mostly due to the fact that Trevor’s contact keeps them in limbo and there’s a large need for a right handed bat. Mookie, Smith, Taylor, Vargas, Thompson and newly acquired Lucas Williams are the only right handed hitter currently on the 40 man that have any shot at being on the 26 man roster. This amounts to 1 full time player and a rookie, ouch! The lack of right handed hitting has been a signature for this team for years now. I’m amazed that AF still hasn’t addressed this.
Bill Plunkett reported on Friday that…
Beyond the quartet of free agents, Friedman and Gomes indicated the team does “feel good” about Gavin Lux as an internal option to replace Turner at shortstop. Lux was a shortstop throughout his amateur career and for the first few years in the minors before the Dodgers moved him to second base with Seager at the major-league level. …
Additionally, the Dodgers could use Chris Taylor at shortstop and prospect Jacob Amaya “can certainly handle it defensively and his offense is developing.”
“There are a lot of options externally and we have good options internally,” Friedman said. “So we get to wade through that market and figure out what ultimately makes the most sense.”
One good right handed bat in left field would help alot! If they acquired said player thru a trade even better!
My guess is JT is coming back at a lower salary.
The AFL Championship Game was held last night and three Dodgers played huge roles in the outcome:
1. Andy Pages was 2-5 with 2 runs scored and and RBI. One of his hits was a double. He hit .500 for the Series with a 1.306 OPS.
2. Jose Ramos was 1-3 with a HR.
3. The score was tied at 5 going to the 11th inning. The Desert Dogs scored a run in the top of the 11th, to take the lead 6-5. Tanner Dodson was brought in at the bottom of the 9th and promptly coughed up the game.
Oh well!
The Dodgers had two players who were outstanding in the AFL: Andy Pages and Emmet Sheehan. They had one who showed immense promise: Jose Ramos.
Then, they had Tanner Dodson and Ben Harris who were right out of a horror movie!
Nice detailed writeup B&P. The ” elephant in the room” is what happens to Bauer. Does the suspension hold or not and if the Dodgers decide to keep him or release him if not suspended? That is a lot of dollars at stake. Will Boras allow his client , Bellinger to take a pay cut on a new deal? The team has to get younger and mature with these players as the season progresses. Friedman and Gomes have to allow this to happen. There is always the July trading deadline to address any needs or issues with the team any that time. As we have all seen ,the World Series is not won in the regular season but who is hot going into the playoffs.
The Dodgers have a lot of flexibility here. If they want to go all in, they can. If they want to dip a toe under the cap, they can. The Bauer situation might keep this from happening until next year. If he’s not suspended, it makes a lot of sense to bring him back, but a current starter will have to go to the pen, especially if they keep Anderson on a QO or by inking him to a new deal as they’re trying to do if you believe the rumors.
Right now, Urias, May, Gonso and Kershaw are pretty much all signed. Add Anderson and the rotation is complete. Add Bauer and the rotation very deep and sturdy with May or Gonso going to the pen and allowing the young pitchers one more year to develop. Next year, they’ll need a rotation makeover. Urias and Bauer will be free agents, Bueller, May and Gonso will all be back and Kershaw will probably take another year, or not. Sheehan and Kopp will be the talk of the town and Pepiot, Stone, Grove and Miller will be fighting to join the rotation.
It makes no sense to eat Bauer’s contract with the current structure of the team. We already have Bueller and Treinen eating $15M+ of cap space and to add another $32M to that total is around 20% of total payroll.
If they get a decision before the season, we’ll have $50M more to spend after signing Kershaw, minus the money that goes to Anderson. They could go over that amount and get any position player they want in free agency, then get back under the following year when all those pitchers are ready.
Well, if Trevor Bauer returns from his suspension, you might as well add to the circus by signing Carlos Correa. Oh, what a summer it will be. The protests, the boos, the letters and the emails. All the national writers focused on the Big Blue Circus.
Would the Dodgers just release Bauer? No idea. It’s a lot of money to swallow. Maybe not. Just a guess, but Bauer isn’t coming back and the Dodgers aren’t signing Correa. But the rumors persist that they are definitely interested in Correa. Maybe an attempt to soften the blow if they do sign the former Astro.
JP Hoornstra of the LA Daily News believes the unlikely break-up of Justin Turner and the Dodgers is now possible in an analysis in today’s paper. Do the Dodgers really need JT? They may be concerned about his lack of success against fastballs at 95 and above. Is he slowing down? No doubt. So was Albert Pujols, but he was very productive the past couple of years.
BP addresses the right handed bat issue. If they let Trea Turner walk, that will put them in an even deeper hole. Plus shortstop is an actual issue moving into 2023. No obvious solutions.
It’s obvious the Dodgers have a huge payroll and that comes with some penalties, but I would point out some of that money has been tied up in gambles on pitchers who never really saw action. That will continue to be the case with Blake Treinen. Fortunately, they are kicking some of those contracts to the wayside. Maybe not re-signing Turner allows them more flexibility. Would you rather put that money into Trea rather than Justin?
Of course, we’re talking about the franchise that generates the biggest revenues in baseball and those are likely to increase next year, recession or no recession. So does any of this actually matter?
Every year we hear how the Dodgers “need” or “want” to reduce payroll, then they sign Bauer or Freddie Freeman. But it may be a little different this coming year, more based on upcoming talent.
But don’t be surprised if the Dodgers do something crazy and sign an Aaron Judge or a Correa. Unexpected is something they seem to relish. A Friedman specialty.
Excellent column today, BP.
Thanks Sbuffalo, but you kinda missed a couple of big points. A direct quote from Freeman, is that they are very comfortable options at SS. Whether they sign one of the free agents, or if they go with internal options. So, there is zero concern, it’s about the bat and where they can fit it in.
Same thing with Turner who wasn’t great last year, and is steadily regressing. It don’t think it’s far off to think Vargas can fill his shoes. He’s a legitimate ROY candidate going into next season and has hit over 300 every single year in the minors. His playing time was sporadic this past season and it’s tough for even the best minor leaguers to get comfortable on a team full of guys they idolize. Let him get comfortable with his buddies in the Spring, I bet we’ll see much better results.
I got that point. But Friedman is usually happy with his options. I don’t think they sign Trea and Gavin ends up at ss.
I see JT coming back at a reduced rate. How much could someone be willing to pay a 38 year old fragile guy who more than likely will play less than 100 games? I think he gets something like 8 million
I remember a former Dodger Rookie 3B, whom, as a rookie, I anointed a Hall-of-Famer. I took a lot of flack on several old message boards. They said he was a horrible third baseman, had no power, and couldn’t play defense. Kind of sounds like Miguel Vargas (although I am not anointing him a HOF’er), whom I think will have a fine career at 3B.
Adrian Beltre did and will soon be in the HOF.
When you look at stats, they are just numbers. When you look at a young player, you need more than “sight” – you need “vision!” I had VISION on Adrian Beltre (I also said Andy LaRoche would be a star, so there is that!).
I’ll stop short of saying that Miguel Vargas will be a HOF’er, but I do think he will be damn good.
I am not convinced that Gavin Lux has exorcised the YIPS, but if he has, I am good to go with him at SS.
Let Max play 2B and work out Busch at DH.
Then you have the money to sign Judge. Mookie can play CF… not as good as Belli, but good enough
Lineup:
1. Lux SS
2. Betts CF
3. Freeman 1B
4. Judge RF
5. Muncy 2B
6. Smith C
7. Vargas 3B
8. Busch DH
9. Thompson/Outman LF (300 strikeouts/30 HR)
I hope the Dodgers do bring back Justin at a reduced rate. He brings a lot to the organization on and off the field. Evan Longoria is a comparable 3rd baseman who also did not have his option picked up this year. The giants declined his $13 million option and instead paid him a $5 million buyout. So the Giants did not want to pay him a net of $8 million for this year. Longoria has had a great career but has been hurt much of his time with the Giants. Last year he slashed 244/315/767 and had 14 hrs in 89 games. In 2021 he was 261/351/833 with 13 Hr in 81 games. He is 38years old like JT.
The Giants refusing to bring back Longoria for $8 million provides some indication of the value for aging 3rd basemen. Hopefully JT and Dodgers can agree on a deal. If not, Longoria is a SoCal native who could provide some depth and insurance at 3rd base.
What no Cody Bellinger? At least for next year take the Belli and JT money and put it towards Judge! But I dont think AF gives him the years he wants