With the Dodgers looking to possibly lower payroll to be under the competitive balance threshold for the coming season, there are those that believe that the system is stacked enough with solid prospects to revamp the roster with talent that would keep the ball club competitive and allow them let go of the dead weight of some heavy-laden contracts. In a few days we will probably have an idea which direction the Friedman administration will take. Will they clean out excess payroll and go with a youth movement? Perhaps it is time.
The Dodger minor league system continues to be ranked high, with some pundits placing them in the top five in baseball. Essentially the Dodger system is stacked with talent that other organizations envy, and we have some players that are simply overlooked that would be ranked as tier one or two in other systems. We often talk of prospects such as Outman, Vargas, Busch, Grove, Amaya, Pages, Pepiot, Cartaya, Miller, Stone and more that aren’t coming to mind, but there are a few players that are overlooked that hardly get a mention.
One of the prospects that is seldom mentioned is an outfielder by the name of Drew Avans. Some don’t consider him to be in the top tier in the system. They may be right, but call me a sucker for guys that work their way up and have that lunch pail mentality. Avans foots the bill and is the ultimate underdog in my estimation, an underdog that has performed at each level in which he was assigned.
This past week MiLB.com rated the top prospects at each position for each organization and Avans was listed as one of the Dodgers top three outfielders. I found it interesting because I hadn’t heard much of him. I do remember him hitting a grand slam in a Spring Training game in which Rick Monday raved about the kid and his attitude, (he said something about his face might be injured from the smile he cracked while circling the bases after hitting his blast). This guy simply looks like a player that may make an impact. Will it be with the Dodgers?
Born and raised in Alabama, Avans was a long shot 33rd round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana University in 2018 where he graduated with a degree in Finance. He is now 26 years old. Avans has ascended through the ranks and performed well at each minor league tier. He spent 2021 and 2022 at Triple A Oklahoma City. Both a pitcher and outfielder in college, the Dodgers put him in the outfield, though there was some talk of also placing him on the mound a few years back. He bats and throws from the left side and has proved to be a steady defensive outfielder and excellent athlete that has risen to the occasion at OKC this past season.
Avans is a speedster who swept 40 bases last season, which was good for fourth highest in all the minors. He finished the season at a torrid pace, going 7 for 15 in his final week and leading OKC to series sweeps in the final week of the season. Avans finished batting .282 on the year with a .379 OBP, so the kid takes walks and works counts. More impressive was his BABIP that stood at .387.
Known as a player with gap-to-gap power, Avans only hit 7 homers, but he led the entire minor leagues with 12 triples this past season. He had an impressive minor league leading 50-game on-base streak as well. Avans played primarily in center field, but also slotted over to left on occasion. He has a plus arm with 5 outfield assists in 2022.
As a player that was drafted in a deep round, the expectations of Avans rising to this level were not too high. He has overachieved from the start, and is listed by some as a top 20 organizational prospect, a solid place considering the depth of the Dodger system. Put him in the Phillies, White Sox or Angels org. and he probably cracks their top five.
Though few have an eye on him, I see Avans as a player to watch closely in Spring Training as he appears to be coming into his own. That is if he survives rule 5 claims. It is a real possibility if not protected, Avans will be claimed by another organization. He could probably stick with a major league roster somewhere for the entire year.
I make mention of Avans and put his name out there because when he is called up at some time this coming year and fans start clamoring for another prospect, it is important to put things in perspective. Avans has the age, baseball IQ, work ethic, Triple A experience and tools to perform on the big stage. Is he a AAAA player? We’ll see, but the kid has paid his dues and deserves a shot. A 50-game on-base streak at any level is impressive.
This could be the “feel-good story” of the coming season, and now at 26, his chance to break through at some time with the big club should be good for 2023. The Dodgers could always use his speed and defense.
A few other positives about Avans:
He had better numbers against lefties than righties, (.294 vs. .279).
He hit . 306 with runners in scoring position (.828 OPS) and .500 with the bases loaded.
In pressure situations in the late innings, his splits show a rising BA in plate appearances in the 8th, 9th and extra innings (.298 BA, 1.013 OPS)
Thanks Evan. Does Avans need to be put on the 40 man roster? And does he have the defensive chops to play CF? That’s a need!
He’s played mostly CF in the minors. He strikes out about as much as Outman, without all that power. When they played together at AAA. Avans played CF and Outman played RF. He’s also about a year older than Outman and just a year younger than Bellinger. His OPS was lower in both OBP and SLG than Outman.
Here’s the strikeout totals for CF options…
Avans 432 ABs/129 K’s 30%
Outman 473/152 32%
Taylor 402/160 40%
Thompson 219/93 42%
Bellinger 504/150 30%
lol
Thx BP. They’re all ugly. As Houston showed us this year, if you want to get lucky then you have to put the ball in play!
Yep, and their CF Chas McCormick wasn’t all that great at that either.
Interesting data.
But I think OPS is a much better measure because it incorporates hits, walks and power. You’d see a big range from these players.
We know that Trayce strikes out a lot–but he made loud contact and had an OPS over .900. Belli, I think, was in the low .600s–and he looked so bad at the end that Barnes pinch hit for him. Pretty sure Outman was over 1,000, albeit mostly in the minors, of course.
It’s nice to avoid Ks, of course, but simple contact seems to have gradually devalued since the days of Gwynn and Carew. Is that a sabermetric thing? Is this a new Dodgers philosophy?
I’d love for the Dodgers to find an Ichiro, but who wouldn’t? If we squint, could Avans look a little like Brett Butler? (The Yanks upgraded their OF by picking up Benitendi and Bader–and by finding some team to take Gallo off their hands.)
Great piece. He has not been on my radar but will be now.
Excellent article, Evan!
Good to learn more about Drew Avans.
We hear so much about Outman as a potential MLB outfielder, but it seems that Avans is also a possibility.
I didn’t realize that Avans has been at OKC for two years and started 104 games in CF in 2022.
It was interesting to compare the paths of Outman and Avans. They were both drafted in 2018 draft, although Outman is 1 year younger and currently 25.
Outman was a 7th round pick from Sac State who signed for $157,500. In college, his slash line was 249/359/841.
Avans was a 33rd round pick from SE Louisiana who signed for $5,000. He hit 308/437/921 in college.
I am surprised that Outman did not hit better in college at a lower level D1 school, but obviously the Dodgers saw his potential. And Outman is 6’3” compared to Avans at 5’10”.
In the minors, Outman has hit 263/363/859 with 79 HR, and 63 SB in 403 games total, 57 AAA games.
Avans has hit 281/372/813 with 32 HR and 103 SB in 381 games total, 209 in AAA.
Avans has had the higher average and OBP while playing at higher levels, but Outman has shown much more power.
Both have been solid players in the minors and could contribute at the MLB level. But is is a huge step from AAA to the MLB, and not easy to project who excels at the top level.
Prospect Nick Frasso get a nice mention on this article about the best fastballs in the minors:
https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/8/the-best-fastballs-in-the-minors
And a look, in The Athletic, on how GMs are thinking about the Shift Ban:
https://theathletic.com/3777485/2022/11/08/mlb-rule-changes-free-agency-impact/?source=emp_shared_article
Have to be a subscriber to read it. No thanks.
It essentially says the GMs are split on just how much impact the new rule changes will have. The consensus is that it will help some left handed batters and that infielders with more range will become more valuable. Nothing shocking.
I still have my Athletic subscription until the end of the month. I canceled it after the season ended. I don’t follow other sports nearly to the extent as baseball so it seemed like a waste of money until spring. I have a friend who just canceled his cable subscription. Only thing he watches on it is the Dodger channel lol.
I wanted to read that, but I let my Athletic subscription lapsed. I guess it is time to pony up for it again.
If you have a NYTimes subscription, you get both I believe.
On Avans: I don’t think the Dodgers will put him on the 40-Man which means he could easily be gone on Rule 5.
I have Frasso as the Dodger’s #15 prospect. However, his arms is held together with duct tape and baling wire. Let’s hope his “Not Tommy John Surgery” holds up. He can scare the crap out of hitters from the pen.
There is a lot of discussion around Kershaw and JT. Not sure about the rest of you, but I did not think the Dodgers would win the WS with Kershaw as our #2. I m neutral on whether he comes back. He can’t give us an entire season, but his mentoring of young pitchers and his IL stints create meaningful innings for young guys. As long as he is not relied upon to be a 1-3 starter in the playoffs, i am good.
JT, on the other hand, needs to play elsewhere/retire. I like his glove at 3rd, but he was a non-factor in our last two playoff runs. The energy and time it takes to manage JT’s fragility thru a season is a distraction. I prefer to find a legit 3rd baseman or let a young player audition and develop (FTR, I do not want max muncy with a glove on his hand).
It is all up to Kersh. He will not get the QO and that is out of respect to him for what he has meant to the organization. Most pundits think there are only three choices for him. Retire, re-sign with LA, get to 200 wins and retire after 2023 a career Dodger, or sign with his hometown Texas Rangers and play your last season at home. As for Turner, there are no indications that he plans to retire. He has also expressed a willingness to return to the Mets. If he does return to the Dodgers, I believe he will be a part time third baseman at best and a DH the rest of the time. But I doubt seriously that the Dodgers bring him back at 16 million.
JT’s defense has also slipped dramatically. it’s time to retire.
It’s time for the Anointed One to take over at 3B.
I think CK plays in Texas this year!
4-Gens – hope you’re good?
Have to concur re Clayton. Not second guessing because I said at the time that Anderson should have been starting game 2.
We had won game 1 without Julio pitching his best, so we should have thrown our second best Starter at SD to try and ensure we at least would get a game 5 at home with Julio on the mound, probably against Clevinger again.
It would also have allowed our 2nd best starter to start game 1 of the CS.
I don’t need to see the stats as my eyes told me that Anderson was our #2.
Kershaw should have started game 3, not Gonsolin (the BP game).
Let him walk – management seem too scared to upset his feelings – even this message from Friedman tells us that.
While he’s with us there’s always the room for sentiment when none is required.
Move on from JT as well, much for the same reasons.
Forget Belinger, he’s had ample time to work it out. Sign Benintendi and let him hit .300 in CF.
Time to shake things up.
Bellinger is the same age and has far better defensive skills and a whole lot more power. No shift this season. Belli’s power and defense keep him in LA for at least one more year.
Another really bad choice. Sorry Watford, but this is where OPS is misleading…
Andrew had more walks and hits, but less, runs, RBI, 2B, HR, SB is a worse defender and baserunner.
Every available option in CF is a worse option than Belli. Benintendi hasn’t played CF since 2019 and he’s only hit 300 once in his career.
Benintendi can’t cover CF. He might play there, but…
Everyone should pump the brakes on Belli for at least a couple of weeks when arbitration tenders are due. Nobody has a good replacement suggestion. He hits at the bottom of the order. Do you really think getting some other bad hitting CF to bat last is going to put us over the top?
Here’s a quote from AF about Belli…
“We still very much believe in Belli’s ability and we got to see firsthand how hard he worked throughout the season,” Friedman said. “Obviously, he’ll be the first to tell you that it was below the expectations that he has for himself. And right now, I know he’s working with our [hitting] guys and doing everything he can to put himself in position to be a real force for us next year. But we still have time to work through what everything looks like.”
So, he’s not taking time off, instead, he’s already working on fixing himself. Maybe the coaches will report back before the tender deadline on his progress and make a decision after that. The available options for CF all suck. Judge is not a true Center Fielder. Nimmo gets all of his value from getting on base, and he’s not a great defender or baserunner and he’s cost more than Belli.
The prudent thing to do is bring Belli back, offer a 20% pay cut, and let the arbitrators decide. Or offer him $18M and an option to buy a little more time. If he sucks for the first part of the year, bring up Outman and option Belli back to the minors to work on things.
The risk is worth the reward and a much better strategy than cutting him out of spite. You just aren’t going to be able to sign anyone with his upside for 18M.
I didn’t want to resign Kershaw last year. But, I think we got value from him. He was okay in the postseason. If he wants to come back for a little less this year, I have no problem with it. But, if we’re trying to get under the cap, I’m not sure it makes much sense. They have plenty of pitching if they’re willing to let the prospects pitch.
If they aren’t spending like drunken sailors at a strip club, it makes zero sense to bring back JT. Their best prospect is a natural third baseman. It’s beyond stupid to try to rely on JT after being in a freefall offensively and defensively for 4 straight years.
The loyalty is deserved for Kersh. He’s a generation pitcher.
I always loved JT but I have to agree. Kersh is Kersh. He gets paid if he wants to play for us again. Period. Only way I see JT coming back is if they give him a small one year contract and a chance to stay in the org after retirement. But when I say small I mean $5m or thereabouts. He would still get more than twice that elsewhere.
Actually for Nimmo
Nimmo during the season was at one time third among all center fielders in FanGraphs’ Defensive Runs Above average statistic — behind only the Angels’ Mike Trout and the Nationals’ Victor Robles — and he is first in Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games, ahead of former Gold Glove winner Lorenzo Cain.
Still would roll the dice on Bellinger.
Agreed
Todays Dodgers updates from GM Brandon Gomes:
Team still hasn’t made decisions yet on Justin Turner’s option or qualifying offers for Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson. Deadline for those is tomorrow, he added that the Dodgers have been in discussions with Justin Turner’s agent about different contract options
Asked if the Dodgers would like to have him back, but at less than his $16 million option, Gomes only reiterated that “we’d love to have him at Camelback Ranch come spring…” Gomes said that the team and Blake Treinen are talking through different options for his shoulder injury. Gomes said surgery is possible!
The front office believes that said the Dodgers don’t have to go out and get a proven closer this offseason. They like the internal options they already have in the bullpen, as to one of those other options…
Daniel Hudson is progressing well from his torn ACL, Gomes said. Hudson began throwing again at the end of the season, and the hope is he’ll be ready for the start of spring training (or shortly after)
Heyman reports there is a good chance the Dodgers extend the $19.65M qualifying offer to All-Star pitcher Tyler Anderson. I firmly believe there are no bad one-year contracts for a team like the Dodgers if it makes sense with the 40.
Always rooting for guys like Avans. I am reminded a bit of Zach McKinstry, another late draft pick who worked his way to the majors. Most people here will recall that AF flipped McKinstry for Chris Martin.
The Angels’ Jered Walsh is another late draft pick who has outplayed the first rounders. And of course the late pick Piazza, allegedly drafted in part because he was Lasorda’s godson, wound up in the HOF. (I still hate that trade!)
Seems unlikely that Avans will be protected given the Dodgers wealth of talent. It would be great for him to be picked up by a team who appreciates him.
Better yet: Use him as a sweetener in big trade to get an impact player. Could be a busy trade season.
I personally would like to see the Dodgers go with a youth movement and see if all these highly valued prospects can be successful with the team. A lineup of the following might be a way to start the season:
Lux 2B
Mookie RF
Freeman 1B
Smith C
Muncy DH
Vargas 3B
Bellinger CF
Outman / Thompson LF
Amaya SS
No to resigning JT and release Rios. Sign Kershaw and good with the qualifying offer to Anderson. I would like to see a package of prospects for a RH left fielder with power. I don’t see anyone in free agency to fill that slot. Not all these highly regarded minor leaguers are going to play for the Dodgers so why not use them to get an established power hitter to make up for the apparent loss of Trea Turner? B&P has kind of convinced me with his reasoning on Cody to keep him around for another year. Sure, he’s a top ten CF, but that isn’t saying much about the competition. Other than his middling offense he’s a super star. Lol. I would try to offer him a substantial salary reduction in arbitration. After two bad years in a row I don’t see how a arbitrator could agree to him receiving a raise again this year.
I think the front office needs to clear out the pitching staff of all these rehab/injured pitchers that AF likes to accumulate. These injured pitchers are ok at one time or another during the season, but when the playoffs come around they can’t be counted on to play. They have plenty of healthy pitchers to make up the staff. All these pitchers the front office has drafted to be future relievers in the past 3-4 years need to be used or developed. I feel now is the time we gave these prospects an opportunity to either become major leaguers or depth for the farm.
The reason I would like to see the team go with a youth movement this year is that it is apparent a team can win 85+ games and still have a good shot a championship, Even with an injection of younger players the Dodgers should have enough firepower both offensively and pitching wise to get into the playoffs. I mean look at the division teams. Does SF, Arizona, or Colorado look like a road block to the postseason for the Dodgers? Even though San Diego got lucky and beat the Dodgers in the playoffs they still finished 22 games behind the Dodgers in the regular season. And the Phils would have finished 24 games behind the Dodgers. Without a doubt the Dodgers have been the most consistent MLB team in the regular season in the past ten years. And, with that the team has one World Series victory to show for it. And, that was in a 60 game season. Of course there was the complete theft of the 2017 WS by the Houston Cheaters. Bottom line for me is that I don’t care much for what happens in the regular season as long as they can win enough games to get to into the playoffs. Then if they lose it won’t be quite as painful. To me it would be amazing to infuse the team with some youngsters with successful seasoned veterans there to minimize the expectations and have them get into the playoffs and have a real shot at winning a championship. We’ll see what happens. It should be an interesting off season. It’s time for championships!!
Carry on.
That’s one ugly offensive bottom third of the lineup. There’s no way AF settles for Amaya at short. And I think we need to add an ace to the starting pitching for the playoffs. It will be interesting to see if Vargas, Outman and Busch can develop into a place in our lineup.
Cassidy, you’re probably right on the lineup at the bottom. It gives Amaya a shot. If it doesn’t work out with him then at least the front office knows and can make a move to fix it. Everyone is assuming that Amaya will fail offensively. I say give him a chance like we did with Lux. If he can improve the defense at short, hit .220-.240, work the count for some walks and make contact then I would take that right now. Look at the awful offensive performances several Dodgers had for a half to all of 2022 in the 6-8 spots. Just sayin’
Another uninformed opinion on Kasten’s “youth” comment. This one from Dodgers Digest:
http://dodgersdigest.com/2022/11/10/parsing-stan-kastens-comments-on-trusting-the-youth-and-future-spending-by-the-dodgers/
Corrupted site Bluto. Blocked for malware activity. I tried the LADT link and got the same result. ???
I really like the site, Ted. Never been exposed to malware.
I’m on a Mac though
I always defer to being safe with privacy, so tread carefully
We’ll see what the Dodgers really think of Outman when they make a decision on Bellinger
What a bunch of crappy position player free agents there are. Throw money at Judge and see what happens. That’s all I have for suggestions.
Just bring back the gang we had this year (minus the bench) and try for Judge and give Outman his shot.
The Dodgers better bring T Turner back because the only alternative SS I see on the free agent market that puts up the numbers that T Turner does is Bogaerts. NO NO NO to Correa. Swanson has only cracked .800 OPS twice and that was in the short 2020 year 264 PA and then his first year also with 145 PA. And no 2B on the market shifting to SS or Lux at SS gets it done like T Turner.
Who the hell are you going to get on the market to replace J Turner? Drury? He had a career year in 2022 otherwise his numbers have sucked. I guess there’s Vargas but I’m not high on that idea, but if J Turner fails you always have Vargas as plan B without the cost of a free agent who’s done no better than J Turner. But I’d have Vargas in AAA to get at bats until/if J Turner fails.
Bellinger is no way going to get the money he got this year. Put him on the bench and let him prove he still has it.
Sign both Turners. Get Judge. Give Outman his shot.
Betts RF/LF
T Turner SS
Freeman 1B
Judge RF/LF
Smith C
Muncy DH
Outman CF
J Turner 3B
Lux 2B
Tell me that wouldn’t be a powerfull offense.
Bench: Barnes, Bellinger, Taylor, ?.
I’ll look for that last spot on the bench from free agency later when I have the time. I’ll try to come up with someone that doesn’t strikeout so much and makes contact.
The pitching wasn’t broke for the most part. 95% of it, if not more wasn’t broke. #1 or #2 free agent starter maybe. Sign Anderson, Martin, Kahnle. Maybe Kershaw. Use an extra starter on the active roster as a multiple inning reliever. Give Stone his shot starting. Done.
I can’t believe the crap I saw on the free agent list for position players.
Go to a 6 man rotation, if not send one to the bullpen as a multiple inning reliever.
Urias
Anderson
Gonsolin
May
Kershaw
Stone
Bullpen
Martin
Phillips
Almonte
Hudson
Kahnle
Vesia
I guess Treinen is still having problems.
In AAA for depth.
Graterol
Ferguson
Bickford
Pepiot
Gonzalez
Miller
Buehler on the 40 man roster.
Interesting in the context of the Bellinger question:
Rays decline $13M option to Kevin Kiermaier. Longtime Ray is one of best defensive CF in game. Now a free agent.
And following please find the list of MLB players given a QO:
– Aaron Judge
– Trea Turner
– Xander Bogaerts
– Jacob DeGrom
– Dansby Swanson
– Carlos Rodón
– Brandon Nimmo
– Willson Contreras
– Chris Bassitt
– Anthony Rizzo
– Tyler Anderson
– Martín Perez
– Joc Pederson
– Nathan Eovaldi