Conventional Wisdom is Not Always Right

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1. When is the last time (if ever) the Dodgers entered October with 4 healthy and effective starters? Pitching is more reliable than hitting in October. Houston just proved that! And that should be our focus this off season. We don’t need April-September. What has Judge done in the post season! We need an ace that can give us 2 wins in each series!

   1. Houston’s Ace had a 5.85 ERA in the post-season, but their #3 stepped up and had 1.44 ERA . Lance McCullers (#2) who was hurt during the season had a 5.87 ERA. Houston just had a bunch of pitchers and players step up.

      I mean, before the season started they knew that their Rookie SS who hit .254 would be the World Seres MVP, right?

      What it takes is a good team and some LUCK. The Phillies were never one of the best teams and their Luck ran out… but it took thme a long way.

      Yes, I’ll take 4 healthy starters, but I’d also rather have some good luck.

      1. All of their pitching was developed internally except for Verlander. Maybe it’s time to let our young pitchers pitch. Miller, Stone, Grove and Pepiot. Certainly one two will step up. Urias, May and Gonso will be a good start to any staff.

   2. 1963

2. I wonder about Bauer. It seems reasonable that his suspension would be cut in half because noone has been suspended that long and he broke no laws. But then what? Would the Dodgers play him or trade him for pennies on the dollar? We’ll see.
   I also think a likely scenario for JT is they buy him out and resign him for less than the 16 mill.
   But of course everh year Friedman surprises me! Conventional wisdom is not part of his vocabulary.

3. Some good thoughts and projections Mark. The Dodgers lost to the Padres because they couldn’t hit a pitched baseball. Sure, Roberts probably could have left Anderson in longer. But, it’s another example ignoring what you are watching and let the numbers dictate the decision. I will never accept this way of managing a game. So what if Anderson’s ERA was 4.43 in the sixth inning this past year. That’s not an absolute given. He pitched more than six innings in 36% of his starts. It’s tiring watching this not only with the Dodgers, but throughput baseball.

   In the game last night the Phils’ manager pulled Wheeler in the sixth after giving up a hit and a walk. He had given up only one other hit. I don’t know what his stats were after the fifth inning, but he was still effective. With left hand hitting Alvarez coming up the manager brings in his top left handed, hard throwing Alvarado. In the series Alvarado had allowed all the runners he inherited to score. Alvarez quickly hits a three run home run and that pretty much ends the Phils’ hopes of winning the game. So, the stats say to pull Wheeler who had been doing OK and bring in a reliever who had been ineffective in the Series. That’s what bothers me about analytics. They’re used to justify one move and completely ignored in other decisions.

   As far as the player projections I say yes to Vargas, yes to Heaney as a reliever, and yes to Taylor only in a utility role. Although a trade of Taylor wouldn’t bother me. Outman needs to be included in a trade. Bellinger and Trayce not resigned. With Taylor, Bellinger, Trayce, and Outman the strikeouts are too much. Also, Rios shouldn’t take up a roster spot. Constantly injured, too many K’s, and he’ll be 29. With the shift being eliminated or restrained I hope the emphasis on contact will be encouraged. Resign Alberto and play him more and reduce Taylor’s playing time. I know Taylor is making a lot of money, but it was a bad signing and doesn’t need to be justified by playing him. I’ve never seen a MLB player swing and miss pitches at the rate he does. It’s not just the strikeouts, but all the empty swings on the way to strike three. If Trae isn’t resigned then I think Amaya should be given a shot a SS. With what the team put up with offensively from the bottom of the order (sans Lux) this past year they should be able to withstand Amaya’s supposed weakness at the plate. At any rate it should be an interesting off season.
   Carry on.

4. Plashke isn’t great, IMHO, but he got some good quotes from Kasten.

   I’d temper 80% of your trade/FA expectations based on that article only.

   1. Of all people, I would buy into that more than just about anyone.

      So, here’s my lineup in 2023:

      1. Lux SS
      2. Betts RF
      3. Freeman 1B
      4. Muncy DH
      5. Smith C
      6. Busch 2B
      7. Vargas 3B
      8. Bellinger CF
      9. Taylor/Outman LF

      1. Do all that and get Haniger to play LF instead of CT3 and Outman. Return Taylor to utility and let Outman give Haniger and Belli off days.

         I’m ready for some youth. This free agent class sucks unless you’re willing to spend on a SS.

   2. It was informative.
      But Plaschke had one glaring error, describing Pages as an infielder.
      Doh!

5. After the Roy, the mvp and all the clutch post season hits Cody has gotten for us he has shown himself to be a big game player. Andrew has said that he still feels that Cody has value so I believe they will give him 2023 and see what happens. He is too young and has too much upside to give up on him now.

   JT has said he wants to keep playing. I think he should retire and sign a personal services contract with the Dodgers and become part of the community relations department. That way he stays a Dodger forever.

   1. A personal service contract paying how much?

      1. Justin and Belli pose real dilemmas.
         Imagine that you are AF. Belli has been a huge disappointment, but what if you release him… and then he signs with the Giants and returns to all-star form? (Belli, with his speed and glove, could be great up in San Francisco.)
         I wonder if Justin could be moved into a player-coach role, sort of like Jim Gilliam in the early ’60s. The historians here may correct me, but I think Gilliam was shifted from coach to player after some injuries. If Justin has ambitions to
         manage someday, it might the right time for him to take a step.

         1. So, we’re now assuming that JT wants to be a coach.
            That he doesn’t want to play.
            That he’s not interested in making the maximal amount of money.

6. Overall, great article Mark!
   Roberts is not to blame for the 2022 playoff loss in my opinion. It is on the players, and especially the lack of hitting. However, I still disagree with Roberts’ decision to remove Anderson given his performance on that day, and the state of the Dodger bullpen. Roberts’ chose to pitch an injured Gonsolin in game 3 who did not last 2 innings. This decision stressed the bullpen when they had games on 3 consecutive days. By removing Anderson early, he was forced to use Kahnle, Almonte, Vesia, and Phillips on back to back days, even though 3 were coming off injuries. Kahnle had only pitched back to back games once the whole season. Roberts chose to overwork his bullpen instead of trust his starter who was throwing extremely well.
   If this was the only time Roberts made questionable pitching decisions then he would get a pass. But he has made numerous ill-advised pitching decisions in the postseason. From removing Rich Hill early in 2017 and 2018, to overusing Morrow in 2017, to using Kershaw in extended relief in 2019, to pitching Joe Kelly more than Maeda and Jansen in 2019, to 2021 and misusing Urias, and this year.
   Dave Roberts will be the manager for this year, and probably at least the next three years. He is good at several managerial functions and he deserves credit for his positive demeanor. But his pitching decisions in the postseason have been very questionable, and ideally the Dodgers will help him in this area or the players will perform better to overcome any poor decisions.

   1. I’d would have kept Anderson in but I have to wonder about the consecutive day argument. Let’s say the Dodgers beat the Padres, in the NLCS, part of the series would have had no days off. So wouldn’t we be just delaying the inevitable need to pitch some pitchers on consecutive days?

      1. You would have had Urias in game 5 and all the other pitchers you didn’t use in game 4 with a day of rest in between. At least you would have had a chance and another day for the bats got get hot. You would have also had Manaea or Clev to hit against.

         1. My comment is related to the NLCS not the Division series. You missed the point.

      2. If Anderson were to have given up one run in 6th, the Dodgers would have been in better shape defending the 7th. BTW, giving up one run in an inning equates to an era of 9 for that inning. Anderson’s 6th inning era was 4.43 so on average, he gave up a half run in the 6th.

         1. In the playoffs, I think the manager should stick with a hot starter until he shows any sign of weakness. There is obviously no guarantee that a fresh reliever will step in and outpitch an SP who is on an adrenaline-fuelled roll.
            So Hill should have stayed in, and so should have Anderson, at least for one more inning. (I remember how Joe Kelly said his Boston teammates were jazzed when Roberts pulled Hill because he seemed unhittable that day. )
            And here let’s also remember a few years back when Roberts left Kershaw in when he should have taken him out. The matchups favored using Maeda and Kolarek, who had already shut down Soto a couple of times.
            But yeah, pitching wasn’t really the reason the Dodgers lost to the Pads.
            The hitters gotta hit.
            And if the starters aren’t hitting, you need a good bench.

   2. What RC said

7. Bellinger, JT, Heaney, Hanser, Rios, Trea Turner will not be Dodgers next year. CK, Tyler Anderson, Duffy and CT3 will be Dodgers next year. Bauer will have his suspension reduced and he will pitch as a Dodger next year. Vargas will be given the proverbial long runway and they will find him a position next year.

   Chris Martin will re-sign. Verlander will sign a two-year deal and move to LA with his supermodel wife. Gonsolin will be traded for a SS.

   1. Verlander has a 20 plus million-dollar player option with the Stros. He is going NOWHERE. No really good SS on the market, so why in hell would you trade a guy who was your best pitcher for most of the year for chopped liver? Moronic.

      1. I think Verlander’s player option is $25MM and he will definitely opt out.
         He’s worth as much as Scherzer who just got a team to give him 2 years at 43 mil per year plus a third year at the same salary as a player option.

         Why would Verlander settle for 1/25? He may do that in Houston, but he’ll definitely opt out.

         1. All true, but Verlander is two years older than Scherzer and although he won a game in the series, he was not that great. He was very good during the regular season, 18-4 sub 2 ERA. Scherzer missed time with an injury. Secondly, if AF was not willing to pay for Scherzer at age of 37, what makes you think he would ever consider paying a guy two years older 25 mil plus???? That is what it would take. Houston is the best option for him. This is more of a reply to norcal than you SB.

            1. I think we know that Andrew WAS willing to pay Scherzer, he just wasn’t willing to pay him 43 mil. There’s a big distance between 25 and 43 and Verlander will almost certainly get someone to give him, at a minimum 2/65. That team may very well be Houston.

      2. Chill cowboy, it’s a blog to generate discussion. Let’s see what happens….who knew Mookie
         Was on the market when traded. Takes two to tango and there just might be a SS out there that none of us expects to be traded

         1. You chill and name me one SS you would trade for who is not a free agent. I see very few who are actual difference makers. Padre’s aren’t trading Tatis to the Dodgers, and even though he did a great job filling in, I doubt they would trade Kim to LA either. Anderson’s option picked up by the Sox.

            1. A difference maker would be Trea, Correa and Bogarts but since it appears the Dodgers may lower payroll they may go the trade route…cowboy. Willy Adames or Amed Rosario might be traded. Don’t take it personal just stirring some conversation, or in your case a sensitive spot.

            2. Not sensitive, sensible. Your idea makes no sense. Neither of those guys are difference makers yo yo, Yeah, I am a cowboy, you on the other hand are not.

      3. Ah how cute you like to put on shit kickers and a cowboy hat and call yourself a Cowboy.. Your a real man Cowboy! Precious.

         1. I actually have lived and worked on a ranch, you? Don’t make assumptions. As for the cowboy hat and boots, I always wore them because I not only worked on a ranch, I play real country music, not that crap they call country today. Oh, and only uneducated people call them shit kickers. Most cowboy boots are work boots and are designed for different jobs.

8. Yeah, that’s not something I would do either. If I’m making trades, I’m getting a right-handed hitter or two. Certainly not two left-handed hitters in the same trade, both with questions about their defense. Both Busch and Outman strikeout at record levels. Is this team philosophy, or the player’s skill profile? When it seems to be every freaking player except for Vargas, it looks more like team philosophy to me.

   Busch was considered one of the best college hitters in his draft class. He didn’t strike out anywhere near his current rate. As a college player, including summer leagues, he K’d at about 15% of his PA’s. Since the Dodgers got their mits on him, he’s at 26%. Just shy of twice as many k’s per PA.

   Vargas has his dad to lean on to form his own philosophy on hitting. Lux improved this past season after spending the winter with his Uncle Augie to lean on. Stay the hell away from Brown and SVS and they might be able to improve.

   This offseason will be really interesting. The 40 man roster is going to be full once they have to protect players from the rule 5 draft, so they’re gonna need to trade or cut players in order to make any adds.

   On another note, I kinda like DodgerHorse’s lineup that he posted yesterday. Unfortunately, it also will probably push their payroll over $300M by keeping Belli and Kershaw while also paying Burnes, Bell and Trea Turner. I can’t see that happening, but you never know. Putting together a lineup is really easy if you have an unlimited budget. While I think the Dodgers budget probably won’t be a lot less than this past season, I certainly don’t think it will be unlimited either. I think the matra is go big or go home. Or, maybe they should dip below this year while Buehler is on the IL and go big next season.

   I really like Josh Bell in that DH role, but don’t really like Muncy with a glove on his hand. I’d rather have Bell than Muncy if I had to pick between the two of them. I’d also rather not see them screw around with Vargas. I’d rather seem him develop into a 3rd baseman than have him learn a new position in LF. But, if you’re going to have a sub-par glove in the field, it might as well be left field if you have a great CF. Definitely not Verdugo, Betts or Judge in Center.

   I keep thinking about what a healthy Mitch Haniger would do in between Friedman and Muncy in the lineup. But, he is yet another strikeout king. But, so is Judge, and he’ll cost probably twice as much. Neither of them are going get near 60 homers at Dodger stadium until MLB effs with the ball again. A high probability after offense was the worst I can remember.

   I think trading for Reynolds is a pipe dream. He’ll be an overpay because he’s cheap and has 3 more years of team control. Forget about him. It’s NEVER going to happen. At least not this season.

   If we’re going to make up nonsense trades, let’s shoot a little bigger and trade for Trout, Altuve, Buxton, Riley, Machado, Suarez or Springer because none of those are going to happen either.

   I’m wondering if Judge wants would rather win or get paid. When the Giants give him a blank check, will he be blinded by the golden ticket to believe they’ll spend enough money around him to give him a chance to get a ring?

   For all the JT fans out there. He was one of the worst hitters in the league with fastballs over 95MPH. What do you think he’s going to see in the postseason next year when all he sees is fastballs over 95? Time to move on.

   Betts R RF
   Lux L SS or 2B
   Freeman L 1B
   Haniger R LF
   Muncy L DH
   Smith R C
   Vargas R 3B
   Busch L or Amaya R 2B or SS
   Belli L CF

   CT3 would go back to being a Super Util and Hanser would be a bench player and they could dip under the cap this season. Maybe they could make a trade with some of the surplus players like Noda, Outman, Vivas and Leonard, or add Profar to play up the middle in the infield with Lux to give Bush or Amaya a little more time in the minors and still wind up under the cap.

   1. Serious question BP:
      JT was one of the best hitters in MLB from July – Sept. Are you saying that nobody was giving him 95+ fastballs for three months?

      1. I’m just telling you what was said about him. Feel free to believe otherwise.

         1. Most everybody said he was not catching up to pitches he crushed before. As for Muncy, I will say this, the guy works his butt off to try and get better.

         2. I’m not necessarily disputing what was said……………………..well, maybe I am.

            I just can’t believe that if everyone knew he couldn’t catch up to a fastball at 95+, that they spent 3 months of the season not throwing those to him.

            At his age, it makes sense that his bat would have slowed down, but then how did he hit so well from July through September?

9. I love all the guess work going on here. But that is what the hot stove season is. 131 players are now free agents. More to come later. GM meetings start tomorrow in Vegas. Groundwork for trades will be made there. I would take a flyer on Syndergaard if he can be had cheaply enough. But that is just me.

10. Commenting on the Plaschke article.

    Of course Stan is going to come out and say he fully supports Andrew and Doc, CEO’s lie for a living by speaking the company line especially when the bottom line is very black when you’re selling tickets at top dollar, leading the league in attendance and winning the regular season by a longshot and both on fresh contracts.

    A little more foreshadowing…

    Busch, Vargas and Miller are their top guys for consideration to start the season. So, no need to go out and get a starting pitcher with Pepiot and Grove already on the roster and Stone, just a phone call away. No Mention of Outman and Amaya in that article, probably backup plans if they keep producing. That leaves just one spot to throw money at and that’s left field.

    It comes down to this. Can they make up the offense lost by JT and TT with an improvement from Bellinger, a better option or platoon with CT3 and Outman in LF and Busch and Vargas as everyday players? That sounds fairly reasonable to me.

    1. I do not get the Times, nor can i read it online since they want you to subscribe. Got a link ol buddy>????

       1. https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2022-11-06/stan-kasten-backs-andrew-friedman-and-dave-roberts

          1. Thanks. Interesting stuff.

11. Chris Bassitt declined option with the Mets.

12. Good interview in the Times with Kasten. You can read a lot between the lines based on Stan’s comments. They may push a youth movement, the organization is high on a number of young impact players, but they will not hesitate to spend to make the team better.

    I can see Miguel Vargas starting opening day and becoming an impact player. Cody Bellinger is a huge talent, but I have no idea if he finds his way back to 2019 or even .260 with 30 homeruns. Maybe the end of the shift shoots his average up.

    Where the Dodgers go this winter probably begins with Trea Turner and shortstop. Not sure Gavin Lux is the guy. Everything revolves around that, first domino and all. Doubt Aaron Judge goes back to New York. Some thinking the Giants will go big on Judge.

    Everything, of course, will depend on opportunity.

    Mark is right about Andrew Heaney, it’s just a matter of health. Definitely see Anderson returning. Maybe Heaney too. Pitching is obviously the key.

    So Kasten considers the Dodger season a success. I do too. Winning 111 games is amazing. I really have no expectations about the playoffs. All the games I saw at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers lost only one. That was a fun summer.

    The Dodgers needed to win this year, but they didn’t. Oh well, life goes on. The pressure will build because many believe a season is a failure without a World Series trophy. And everyone wants the downtown parade. But LA puts a great product on the field every year and they drew almost four million fans.

    I wish MLB would conclude the Trevor Bauer appeal so everyone can move on. I don’t want Bauer back. But I wouldn’t mind seeing Justin back.

    Excellent column, Mark.

13. Alright I gotta discus some things.

    Alberto is a one trick pony and not very good at that one trick, and that is base hits against LHP with no walks and no power. I’ll list his slash lines vs LHP in years with at least 100 plate appearances against LHP.
    .398/.414/.534/.948
    .286/.318/.454/.771
    .279/.286/.394/.680
    As you can see he had one outrageously good year against LHP and that inflated his career numbers against LHP. Otherwise he’s a .282/.302/.424/.726 hitter against LHP and an extremely miserable hitter against RHP. Do you want that on the team? I don’t. And if you want him as a cheerleader, then give him some pom poms and put him in the first row by the Dodgers dugout.

    Amaya .256/.362/.393/.754 minors career, .259/.368/.381/.749 2022 AAA. As you can see those numbers are almost exactly the same, and expect a drop off in the majors. To those of you that want more contact hitting do you really want that on the big league team? I don’t.

    That leads me to Justin Turner, .296/.375/.490/.865 Dodgers career, .278/.350/.438/.788, 2022 slash line. Yes there’s a drop off in 2022 but a .278 batting average is considered making pretty good contact. So again to those of you that want more contact hitting do you really want to let him walk? I don’t.

    Heaney career numbers, 1.25 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9, .250 BA, .755 OPS. WHIP is league average the rest are worse than league average. To Mark and any others, do you really want that? I don’t.

    Gonsolin career numbers, 0.99 WHIP, .183 BA, .572 OPS. Those numbers are BY FAR WAY better than league average. Those are Clayton Kershaw numbers during his prime. I can’t believe anyone is talking about trading him. To those of you who are, you need to be in a mental institution.

    I was going to list some minor league player numbers, Busch, Outman, Vargas, Grove, Jackson, but it has taken me too long to write the above stuff, so I’ll just be brief with these.

    Grove and Jackson have small samples in the big leagues therefore I’ll talk about their important minors numbers at AA and AAA. Grove’s numbers are bad at both AA and AAA worse at AA. Jackson good at AA and bad at AAA. I don’t want them on the big league team. To me they are trade chips.

    Busch to me is not quite ready from what I see in his numbers. I very much like Busch but that is my opinion.

    Outman and Vargas. At AA they had similar slash lines. At AAA similar batting average, but Outman has Vargas beaten by a lot in OPS. To Mark and his 4th or 5th outfielder comments about Outman. If that is the case about Outman, then Vargas is a backup whatever his position is.

    1. Just to make it clear the scouts and others here say Vargas will end up better than Outman EVENTUALLY. I won’t argue against that, and I won’t argue the other way either. You never know. But as far as who is more ready NOW it is Outman.

    2. Heaney career numbers, 1.25 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9, .250 BA, .755 OPS. WHIP is league average the rest are worse than league average. To Mark and any others, do you really want that? I don’t.

       The Dodgers changed everything about the way Heaney pitches, and you want to use his Career Numbers? What is wrong with you? Last year was vastly different from his career. That is just dumb!

       I’m done talking to people who have closed minds!

14. Nice defense of Bellinger but I think he needs to go. Yeah, he’s a great defender. I could live with marginally less defense and a lot more hitting. Especially for 19 million. Time to move on without another unproductive year. I’m glad that Mark hold out hope. I don’t.
    The one good 1/2 year. In the first 82 games of 2019, Belli was unconscious. He hit .346 / 1137, with 27 dingers and striking out only 17% of AB’s. The remainder of the 2019 season, he hit .259 / .921 (nice OPS but a fall from 1137 the first 1/2) and his strike out rate increased to 22%. He still had MVP stats for the season and finished up at .305 / 1035 with 47 dingers. But the 2nd half of 2019 was the beginning of his downward spiral, in my opinion. in the 2019, 5 game post season, Bellinger hit .211 / .549 with 0 homers.
    2020 WS Championship – in 56 games of the shortened season. Bellinger hit only .239 /.789 with 12 homers. In the post season of 18 games, Belli hit .212 / .770 with 0 homers and a 33% K rate.
    2021 – By July 23, Bellinger was batting under .200. At the end of the month, Roberts made the decision to relegate Bellinger to a platoon role in the outfield, starting A. J. Pollock, Mookie Betts, or Chris Taylor against left-handed pitchers. Injuries to Pollock and Taylor, however, forced the Dodgers to renege on that platoon system shortly after its introduction.
    Bellinger finished the regular 2021 season batting a career-low .165, with ten home runs and 36 RBIs in 315 at bats. Injuries certainly impacted his season, including a fractured rib on Sept. 13th. In the post season’s 12 games, however, he had his best career post season numbers hitting .353 /.907 w/ 33% K rate, despite the injuries.
    2022 – We all know his season numbers and his post season benching while hitting .143 / .286, 57% K rate in 3 post season games.
    I think a case can be made that he has actually had a spectacular 1/2 season in 2019 and 1 good post season and otherwise is a mediocre to poor hitter. I had predicted long ago this swing would not hold up, and it hasn’t. His swing was never built for longevity.
    I watched the Mariners continue to stick with aging and eventually unproductive players after they won 116 games. They refused to make hard decisions and cut guys loose a year or two early instead hanging on a year or two too long. It took the more than decade to rebuild to be competitive. Say goodbye to Bellinger, CT3, Muncy or JT, Gallo for sure, Alberto and Thompson for my money. And I haven’t address the pitching. Please don’t remind me we won 111 games and the baby, and the bath water. It’s time to see the fruits of this great farm system we reportedly have with players we refused to trade.
    I’m happy for Dusty Baker despite not being an Asstro fan. They can flat pitch. They have a nice stable of young latin pitchers especially Javier and Valdez, a rising star with the wicked Uncle Charlie. The handling of pitchers now days is so different and I can’t say I like it. Game 6, as mentioned, Wheeler is dealing in a great pitchers duel with Valdez. He hits a guy and give up a single with 1 out in the 5th. He’s given up 0 runs, 3 hits and 5 K’s on 70 pitches – and gets the hook by Rob Thompson. He went to Alvarado who promptly pooped the bed. Before the inning started Joe Davis and Smoltz were already talking about Wheeler reaching the end of the line. He was barely at 60 pitches. I know it’s loser out but he was effective. Show some trust and confidence.
    Everybody is so conditioned now to expect pitchers to go 5 innings and 85 pitches. I don’t get it and don’t like it. Computers and analysts now decide when a pitcher is done and not the opposing hitters. Wheeler was on 6 days rest where he had thrown only 69 pitches his previous outing. He certainly didn’t looked tire. It’s the new way to manage but I long for the days when a Bob Gibson battled through adversity and pitched deep into games.
    By the way, Smoltz drove me crazy and I’m a pitching guy. He overanalyzed ever pitch, every location and second guessed things to death. He never shut up.

15. Mets gave Diaz 5 years. 102 million. Rockies make first trade sending Sam Hilliard to the Braves for a minor league pitcher.

    1. Diaz has done well for himself. Is that the biggest reliever contract ever? I hope he tips the guy with the trumpet who helped make him a folk hero.
       I find myself hoping that the Dodgers get outbid for Trea. He’s obviously a fine player, but like Seager he’s not a great defender–and it really showed up at the worst time, in the playoffs. When the Dodgers were rolling, there was a lot of talk about Mookie, Trea and Freddie as “the big three” at the top of the lineup. But I think Will Smith wound up with a higher OPS than Trea, and he is more vital to the team… at least until Cartaya and Rushing are ready.
       Trea is replaceable, perhaps by Lux or Amaya. If Adames is available in a trade, that could work.
       An out-of-the-box thought: targeting the Orioles’ Jorge Marte, a spectacular, Gold-Glove caliber fielder whose .646 OPS would fit nicely at the end of the lineup.
       The O’s might be willing to deal because they promoted their big SS prospect Gunnar Henderson late in the season, moving him to 3B. Knowing that Henderson could slide over may encourage the O’s to shop Marte for other needs.
       If Trea leaves, the in-house options are basically Lux and Amaya. Doubts persist about Lux’s defense and perhaps should stick at 2B, and Amaya is unproven on the ML level.
       Marte is a proven ML SS who would win games with his glove. Some of his highlights bring Ozzie to mind.
       I trust AF & Co are pondering these kind of opportunities. Remember when they traded Dee Gordon and Dan Haren? The Dodgers got back a solid reliever whose name I forget and two guys I’d never heard of: Austin Barnes and Kiki. Both Barnes and Kiki would go on to play vital roles in the Dodgers’ success–as role players, not stars.
       Getting a great-glove SS helps the pitching staff immensely and helps cover for a meh-glove 3B, be it Muncy, Vargas for Rios.
       Love me some web gems. The Dodgers need more of them.

       1. Trea’s OPS .809…..Smith’s…… .807 They both had the same OBP and Turner’s slug was .001 higher Turner had a 4.9 WAR and Smith was 4.2

16. Keith Law recently:

    Reports there are quite a few rumors of Ohtani to SFG.

    In chat:
    James: Dave Roberts did nothing to warrant losing his job, right ?
    Keith Law: Right. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team. This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.

    Jeff: I wonder if the Dodgers “failures” in the postseason are more due to approach and strategy towards a short series more so than anything else. They seem to have a bullpen game in virtually every series including the most recent game 3 which was after not playing in round 1 and a day off between games 2 and 3. I know the postseason is a small sample size so its not entirely indicative of who is the best team but when you have so much talent and you lose more than you win, something has to be the cause other than the randomness of the outcome of a baseball game/series.
    Keith Law: How could we truly distinguish that from the randomness of a short series? I don’t know if we could. I also kept thinking the series might have been different with a healthy Buehler, although that’s all hypothetical (and then don’t you have to ask the same about Padres/Tatis?).

    Mason: So when do we cancel the playoffs and annoiunt the LAD rightful champs?
    Keith Law: That was such a bizarre column – the first one, at least – and then someone tried to pit me against that writer on twitter, which I am not interested in doing at all.
    Keith Law: And then other people piggybacked on this stupid idea. I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game.

    1. Angel’s GM stated today on MLBTR that Ohtani would not be traded this winter.

       1. From the Athletic, who says no?

          The Giants trade IF Marco Luciano, OF Luis Matos, LHP Kyle Harrison and IF David Villar for Shohei Ohtani and IF Matt Duffy

          OR

          The Dodgers trade RHP Bobby MIller, 2B Michael Busch, IF/OF Miguel Vargas, RHP Landon Knack, LHP Maddux Bruns, OF Andy Pages, and RHP Ryan Pepiot for Shohei Ohtani

          1. AF would never give that much talent for one player.

          2. That is what is known as a “Dope-Fiend Move.”

17. I 100% Agree with what Keith Law said:

    “I think the Dodgers were the best team in baseball in 2022. The best team doesn’t always win – not in the playoffs, not in a series, not in any particular game. Really don’t understand the hand-wringing over the Dodgers losing a short series to a very good team. This is the playoffs. We have upsets. It’s not about crowning the best team, but about crowning a champion. You have to accept that distinction or stop watching.”

    I also went back and re-read what Stan Kasten said: I think it was a proclamation of the road the Dodgers will travel this winter. Here is what I believe he was saying:

    “We have seen that spending the most money does not guarantee a World Series. We have a loaded Farm System, and it’s time for them to produce. Therefore we are going to allow them the opportunity to do just that. Justin Turner and Tyler Anderson will not be back. Andrew Heaney will not be back, unless it’s at market value. Clayton will likely not be back. We will try and create spots for Vargas, Busch, Amaya, Stone, Pepiot, and Miller this season with more next season. You might be surprised at the results, and if at the Trade Deadline, we have to throw some money at it, we will. “

    That’s what I think he was saying.

18. I’m totally fine with the Dodgers going with a youth movement this year as long as they address the imbalance in the lineup. The need for right-handed power in the middle isn’t something they can easily fill from players in the minor leagues. I don’t see Pages realistically stepping into that role this upcoming season after underperforming at AA this past season. Look further and you won’t find any right-handed-hitting prospects that are anywhere near close to stepping into such a critical spot on the order.

    Soon, we won’t have to hear about whether we should keep JT or Belli. Options are due to be exercised in just 3 days (November 10), so JT’s decision will have clarity this week. On the same day, a decision is due on qualifying offers for free agents. Just 5 days later, on November 15, rule 5 players will need to be added to the 40 man and just 3 days after that, teams must offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players and pre-arbitration players, or non tender them.

    11 more days of discussing Bellinger and 3 more days of discussing JT.

19. It’s just hard for me to believe that AF would go with Amaya or Lux at short. Or Taylor, Thompson or Outman in center. Not that I’m campaigning to keep Bellinger! I think Vargas in LF is the only young possibility to start at the beginning of 23. And no to Judge. Give me more pitching!

    1. No to Vargas as an outfielder. Let the kid play his normal position if he is going to be on the field. Find a left fielder, a solid closer and at least one certified starting pitcher to add to Gonsolin, May and Urias.

    2. I don’t find it hard to believe that Gavin can’t play SS. The defensive stats say that his career at SS is about the same as Trea Turner’s last season at shortstop and that’s without Gavin having the benefit of being able to play there full time.

       Stop with the narratives.

20. Benintendi for the Outfeld somewhere.

    1. Time to move on from Belinger and JT.
       Benintendi in the Outfield and Vargas at 3rd.

       Try and get Trea to sign for a higher AAV and less years, if not bite the bullet and sign CC for SS – he’s a great player and good leader by all accounts.

       Yes to Clayton for one year at a reduced deal.

       Sign Anderson for three years.

       Close by committee.

       Mookie RF
       Trea SS / Carlos
       Freddie 1B
       Will C
       Max DH
       Andrew B LF
       Miguel 3B
       Trayce CF
       Lux 2B

       Julio
       Tyler
       Tony
       Dustin
       Clayton
       Gavin

       Trevor B???

       CT3
       Austin
       James O
       Andy P

       1. No way Correa ever becomes a Dodgers. Of course, never say never. There have been several reports that he is one of the options the Dodgers are considering. Padres Profar and Suarez opted out of their deals; Myers option was declined. Bogaerts, and Correa opted out of their deals. Sorry Watford, from the way it sounds, AF is going to bring Bellinger back for another year. Reasons are simple, far superior defensive skill than anyone else in the organization, his age, 27, the shift is gone, so he will get some more hits rather than blasting one into the shift, They need a regular every day left fielder, not a CF. Matt Holliday returns to the Cardinals as bench coach, and Turner Ward is now their hitting coach.

21. Justin Turners’ struggles against 95+ MPH fastballs started 2 or 3 years ago. I have changed my mind – It is going to get worse. I would install Miguel Vargas as the new 3B in the Spring.

    1. I agree, if JT won’t sign at a lower deal, let him walk.

    2. I’m going to ask the same question I asked yesterday and which nobody answered.
       If the whole world knows that JT can’t catch up to a 95 mph fastball, how was he able to be one of the best hitters in MLB for the months of July through September.
       Are you saying that teams just didn’t throw him fastballs for 3 months?

       1. I am going to go back and watch his at bats over that period, I will try and chart how many of his hits came off of balls 95 plus. Should not be that hard, and I have the time to do it.

          1. Is this where we’re supposed to all shout out, “Get a life, Bear!” ?

             Thanks for taking the time to do it. I’d really be interested to see what you find out.

             1. I have a life! LOL, I also have a lot of free time being retired. I will start with games in July. I have been going back and watching some of last season already. Wasn’t JT on the IL a couple of times? He missed 34 games. I read a couple of things on his baseball reference stat page. His hard hit percentage was down to 40%. His pull percentage was only 23.5

             2. One other thing I just saw. For his first 70 games of the season, he was below .240. The next 58 he was a .345 hitter. He only hit 2 HR’s on the road, He has 74 road homers for his career so that production was way down. He also hit 37 points lower on the road. He hit .297 at Dodger Stadium with 11 homers. Maybe they should just play him at home

             3. Hey STB, it took me a total of 15 minutes to figure this out. Here’s JT’s breakdown on pitches 95 MPH or over…

                3 Doubles
                0 HR
                12 Singles, 5 of them were hit hard (95+ MPH Exit Velocity).

                Just for fun, I looked up Belli as well.
                7 Doubles
                5 Homers
                13 Singles, 5 of them hit hard
                1 Triple

             4. Thanks for checking, BP. Where do you go for those kind of stats?

                What period are you giving us the numbers for? Is that for the entire season? If so, why would anyone ever throw him anything other than a 95+ pitch?

                With practically no success whatsoever, he was either not getting many fastballs at 95+ or just waiting for the slow stuff. Fact remains he had a very good 3 months from July-Sept. How do we explain that?

             5. Like I said, I was going to rewatch his games starting in July. Well, I went back to the June 30 game against the Padres that actually started his run. He hit two home runs that day and went 3-3. Both homers were hit off of fastballs. One was 92, the other was 94. His single came on a slider. The next game he hit another HR, giving him 7 for the year. It was off of a 92 MPH fastball off of Darvish. He hit the first two off of Musgrove. Most of his hits seemed to come off of fastballs below 95 that were up in the zone. I will keep watching.

       2. Singing The Blue

          I absolutely agree with you and your point and can’t believe nobody either understands your point or doesn’t care because they (cough cough Mark cough cough) want their anointed one Vargas to take over 3B.

          There’s at least 1 hole in the outfield and maybe 2 depending on Bellinger so don’t accuse me of anointing Outman. Not directed at you Singing The Blue.

22. The loss of the shift won’t help all the K’s and pop ups with Bellinger. If he comes back next year he needs to comeback MUCH more physically stronger than he’s ever been. We’ll see how much he wants it. The ban of the shift will really help a healthy Muncy next year

    1. Look at it this way, if it gives Belli 25 more hits, and he hits. ,250 with 25 dingers, would you be happy? I think, and I believe that Bellinger is going to work his tail off to get better simply because he knows he is on the bubble. He needs to be at least a much better version of himself. He will be two years removed from his shoulder surgery. No excuses there anymore. As for Muncy, he will never be more than a .250 hitter. But his power should come back. As for the pop ups, he isn’t the only player on the Dodgers who pops up a lot. That has to do with timing and swing pattern.

       1. .250! I’ll hold you to it Bear. My prediction is that Muncy has a much! bigger year than Bellinger

          1. Okay by me Cassidy. I think Cody turns his career around big time. But I also think 2023 is his last year in a Dodger uniform. When he becomes a free agent he is going to leave.

    2. I think the shift ban helps Cody more than Muncy. They strike out at about the same rate, so it appears that Cody puts more balls in play and has the foot speed to beat more balls to 1st base. Cody’s ground ball% is higher and fly ball% is lower than Max’s.

23. Justin Turner vs. 95+ MPH CHART

    Post Updated Above.

    It ain’t pretty.

    1. That is ugly. Eric, you should read that chart. Oh, Vargas is not the anointed one. He is just a logical option to an aging player who OBVIOUSLY has lost some of his bat to ball skills.

    2. Thanks for posting that, Mark.

       Any way to break it down Apr – June vs. July – Sept. ?

       I ask again, did they stop throwing him 95+ fastballs for three months?

       Maybe he was trying to pull everything for the first half and then realized he’d be better off hitting to right and right center which would mean he could be a bit later to the ball. That, by the way, is just a wild guess.

24. Let’s bring back Puig.

    1. I agree. I would like to give him a chance to show he has matured, on and off the field

       1. After I read his comments on Twitter about his battle with his mental problems, and the way he played in the KBO this season, I would welcome him back. If he showed he has matured enough to control that temper, take some coaching, he could move to RF or left with ease and boom, you have an outfielder with 20-25 HR pop, a gun for an arm, and a very good fielder.

25. Oh, I think that Vargas is very much “the anointed one” now.
    If not him, then who?
    He’s the one who got the runway late in the season, failed to deliver–and then got put on the postseason roster anyway.
    And stayed on the bench.
    Juan Toribio of MLB.com, who regularly interviews Roberts and the brass, has basically penciled Vargas into the 2023 starting lineup, playing leftfield. So has Mark and a few other folks here. The conventional wisdom, it seems, is that he “can’t miss”–that he is far and away the best MLB-ready prospect in the system. So what if he struggled badly when he was given when given about 50 plate appearances and still rewarded with the postseason roster spot. (Again, he only walked twice in those 50 PAs. Outman, allegedly less disciplined, walked twice in about 35 fewer PAs.)
    Well, I hope the Vargas fans are right and he proves the skeptics wrong.
    But I also know MLB has had many “can’t miss” prospects who missed.
    In related news, it cracks me up that Mark likens Outman to Joc as if it was some sort of dis. If Outman hits like Joc, that would be fine! Joc, best used in a platoon, has had a long, productive ML career. And Outman is the superior fielder. (By the way, someone here once claimed that Outman’s performance in OKC really dropped off after his too-brief MLB stay. This is wildly wrong: he even hit for two cycles within a week. And please, anyone who wants to compare 2022 stats of Outman and Vargas, remember to factor in the ML numbers.)
    If AF was trying to protect Outman’s trade value, well, perhaps he could have flipped him for Drury or Bader or Ian Happ or other proven major leaguer. Outman is now 25, an aging trade asset in the minors.
    But come to think, wasn’t Judge a late bloomer? I think reached the majors at 25 too. Not saying Outman is the next Judge, of course, but I’m sure that Joc has been better than Belli and Gallo lately.
    When I mocked up a glove-first, already-under-contract lineup for the Dodgers, I put Outman in CF flanked by Mookie and Trayce. Vargas played 3B in OKC but, unlike Amaya at SS and Outman at CF, he hasn’t earned raves, so I have him DH.
    Did he ever play 3B at the ML level? I don’t think so–and it’s not like an error or two would have cost the Dodgers the division. What gives? Some of these decisions were just mind-boggling.
    So I put Vargas in a DH platoon with Rios. But now I remember that Will Smith will shift there when Barnes plays.
    But never mind.
    Because Vargas is now commonly perceived as the leftfielder of the future!
    And he’ll probably be OK. At least better than Lux was out there.

    1. JUST FYI: Mike Trout hit .163 in his first 47 AB’s.

       Just to be clear, 13 ABs or 47 ABs don’t mean a damn thing!

       BTW, I think Vargas has a better than 50% chance to be the Thirdbaseman.

       1. Then again…
          Trout debuted at age 19. Vargas is 22.
          So…. what was Trout hitting at age 22? Will Vargas at 24 be as good as Trout at 22? Sure hope so!
          Yes, small sample sizes are just that. But 50 is not as small as 15. Anyway, if you add up the Vargas and Outman stats from 2022–more than 500 plate appearances–both put up impressive numbers. Outman produce more power but also more Ks–nothing odd about that. And by all accounts he’s the better fielder.
          I hope we’ve been misled about Vargas’s defense and that he turns out to be a decent third baseman… who hits like Mike Trout.

          1. I am not saying he will be like Mike Trout… maybe more like Alex Bregman (if we are lucky). Trout grew up in the USA where he had lots of opportunities to play and grow that they don’t have in Cuba, plus, Mike Trout is a generational talent. I have no illusions about Vargas. I have watched Miguel play 3B… probably over 40 times and he is not that bad. Put him with the right coach and he will be a solid 3B. He has lost a couple of years of developmental time with the Pandemic. Miguel also had a growth spurt when he was 17-18 and still is growing into his gangly body. He has already shown he can hit AAA pitching. Now he needs to play against the big body and let his game play up.

             I stop short of comparing him to another 3B who I took a lot of heat about when I said he was a future Hall-of-Famer. The year before the Dodgers called him up at 19, Adrian Beltre had 37 errors and they said he could not field. I believe my eyes.

    2. No way that kid should be the everyday left fielder. Anyone who thinks he should is three cookies short of a dozen. He is not an outfielder. Put him at third and see what he can do. Use natural outfielders in the outfield. Not everyone can adapt to the position and become a good outfielder. Taylor is an anomaly. Like Lux, he did not look comfortable there at all.

26. Congrats to Doc for NL manager of the year finalist. Are you excited for him B&P?

    1. I’m indifferent. I said he should win based on the 111 win season. But, then he pooped his pants again in the postseason, so why would I be excited? Put it this way, I’m happy that former Dodgers, old-school manager Dusty Baker finally got a ring as a manager. It shows you don’t have to be a robot to manage a team to victory.

27. The last time someone argued so much that a guy was not ready, he was called up in the first month and hit 39 HR AND was the ROY!

28. And 5 years later he couldnt hit .250 if he was playing tee ball!

    1. True!

       But he was ready!

    2. Give the guy a break. He played almost all of 2021 with a bum wing, this season, yeah, he was awful, but the injury had a lot to do with the numbers in 20 and 21.

       1. PLEASE! He should be a cast member if the series “Lost” ever returns!

          1. Cody Bellinger’s stats compared to all other Center Fielders.

             Runs 10th
             Hits 12th
             2B 6th
             3B 9th
             HR 7th
             RBI 5th
             SB 8th

             As bad as you think he was, he was very productive overall compared to all the other center fielders in the league.

             So, if he gets a little closer to his old self, you might have a top 5 Center Fielder especially considering that Aaron Judge might not be a Center Fielder next year.

             1. NOT worth 18 mil! Come on! And for a guy who gets benched in October! Take his money and JT’s and roll the dice on deGrom!

             2. Not many players are Cassidy, but that is what the rules state he should get. As for deGrom. he is injury prone big time. He is a great pitcher, but how much are you going to pay for a guy who might only pitch 20 games? So he got benched, losing wasn’t his fault. The entire team sucked on offense. Last season he was one of the few who was actually hitting the ball. You are stuck on short term memory.

             3. Why spend all that money on DeGrom when Doc’s gonna pull him after 5 in a postseason game anyways? We have lot’s of those guys and Clayton can pitch 20 regular season games with better results. 5-4 11 games 3.08 ERA. Big whoop.

29. This just in from MiB.com:

    Top MLB Prospect (Pacific Coast League): Miguel Vargas, Oklahoma City (LAD)
    In a loaded Dodgers system, Vargas stood out as one of the best. The 22-year-old hit .304/.404/.511 with 100 runs scored in 113 games with Oklahoma City, earning a callup to Los Angeles at the end of August and belting his first MLB homer in September. The club’s No. 3 prospect (MLB No. 41) was third in the PCL with a .915 OPS and his .404 OBP was second overall in the circuit.

    1. Outman wasn’t the best? Hummm…

       Jason Martin was an All-Star and Vargas wasn’t!

30. Hall of Fame announces the eight players who will be considered by the ERA committee, formerly the Veterans committee. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Shilling, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Fred McGriff and Rafael Palmeiro. Clemens, Bonds and Palmeiro all have ties to the PED mess. Shilling had his name pulled from the last ballot due to some controversial comments made by him. Mattingly had five really good seasons, then fell off because of injuries and such. Murphy finished with 399 homers. But he won 2 MVP awards. McGriff has exactly the same number of career homers as Lou Gehrig, 493. Belle was not very well liked by the press, but he was a career .295 hitter with 381 HR’s and 1239 RBI’s. My guess, Bonds may have the best shot, but I would rather see Murphy and McGriff make it. I think Mattingly’s numbers fall short. Clemens is not very well liked either.

    1. You can make an argument for all of them. Unfortunately, there are a lot of writers who hold grudges, and many will not get in… at least now.

       But I am a guy who thinks Pete Rose should be in the HOF. You can’t erase history… but it can have an assterick! Oh, I do not like Pete Rose in the least!

       1. I also think Pete belongs, but after he cannot profit from it. He is the all-time hits leader.

31. VOTE TODAY to stop this insanity!!

    1. Vote!

       1. Already did

          1. Bear you previously said that Bellinger was one of the few guys last season that was hitting the ball. He struck out 150 times! He hit .210 OPS .654 wRC 83. And he made 18 mil! It’s just beyond my comprehension how you and B&P can defend his incompetance!

             1. In the post season dude. He and Taylor were the only two guys actually hitting the ball hard. Both Turners and the rest sucked pretty much. Bellinger hit .412, Taylor .476 and Pollock .381. Only guys who hit over .300. Betts, 174, JT, 200, Trea, 240, Smith .217. Pujols, 231, Seager, 167. Pollock had 7 RBI’s and Taylor 9. Bellinger drove in 4. Bellinger had the game winning single in the deciding game of the NLDS against the Giants, and he crushed a game tying three run shot in the 8th inning to keep them from falling behind 3 games to none. So, yeah, I think he is worth one more run over an untried rookie with huge K numbers. Those numbers are for the NLCS only. What is incompetent is not investigating all the stats before making a blanket statement. 35% of Bellinger’s at bats last year were ground balls, a large portion of that into the shift, where the second baseman was basically playing short right field. 10 percent of those go for hits, and he is hitting .250.

             2. Because unlike you, I’m taking it in context.

                1) Who are you going to replace him with?
                2) Are they going to be better defensively?
                3) It isn’t my money
                4) Are you certain he won’t improve next season?
                5) He’s younger than every free agent center fielder
                6) He still hasn’t technically hit his prime.

                Please respond with ideas for improvements that aren’t “No change in hell” trades like Brian Reynolds.

                Don’t be an Eric, look past OPS. And by the way, he was 12th in WRC+ for Center Fielders. So again, he’s actually above league average. Only 1 Center Fielder above him on the list was better defensively according to Fangraphs. OPS and WRC+ don’t include baserunning.

                Add it all up and there’s maybe a handful of Center Fielders that are better.

                Here’s the list above Belli for WRC+
                Aaron Judge Free Agent, 207 WRC+, worse baserunner, worse defender.
                Julio Rodriguez Free Agent 2030 17.4 AAV, 146 WRC+, worse baserunner, much worse defender
                Brandon Nimmo Free Agent, 134 WRC+ same extra base hits, worse baserunner, worse defender
                George Springer Free Agent 2027 $25M AAV, 132 WRC+, About even baserunner, way worse defender.
                Bryan Reynolds Free Agent 2026, 125 WRC+, bad baserunner and defender, probably should be in CF, but he plays for the Pirates
                Adolis Garcia Free Agent 2027, 112 WRC+, better baserunner, worse defender
                Daulton Varsho Free Agent 2027, 107 WRC+, worse baserunner, better defender. Same Age as Belli
                Cedric Mullins II – Free Agent 2026, 106 WRC+, worse baserunner and defender
                Mike Yastrzemski Free Agent in 2026, 99 WRC+, worse baserunner and defender
                Lane Thomas – Free agent in 2026 only 96 WRC+, way worse baserunner and defender
                Randal Grichuk – Worse Fielder, Worse Baserunner, Colorado inflated offensive stats and still only slightly better.

                Almost every single player that hit better than Belli is older. Almost all of them are worse baserunners and defenders. Nimmo might be a little better, Springer, Judge and Rodriguez are the only ones that are better and only Judge and Rodriquez had better WRC+ than Belli’s second best year.

                Only Judge and Nimmo are available and both will get more $$ than Belli next year. Springer is already paid a lot more than Belli.

                Now that you know all the facts, can you just stop harping on this non-sense point that you’re trying to make? You just aren’t going to get someone that’s definitely going to be better than Belli, unless you sign Judge who’s not nearly as good defensively.

                Oh yeah, about the strikeouts. Belli K’d at a 27.3% rate. 8 of the 11 players on the list had at least 23% or better K rate and 4 of them were within 2% of Belli’s rate and only 6 had more homers.

             3. BulldogsandPenguins

                I bet if you look at OPS of those guys you listed in WRC+ order it would be the same order maybe one guy out of place.

                I’ve found that those kind of stats mostly line up the same way.

             4. Yes Eric,

                OPS and WRC/WRC+ are almost the same stat. They just weight the values for 1B, 2B, 3B, HR differently.

                Nothing changes, if you look at everything, Belli is still a top 10 CF, maybe closer to top 5. If he gets a little better next year, he’s solidly in the top 5. And all the other paid the same or more.

32. FWIW, the Dodgers beat reporter, Jack Harris, had the following to add in reference to Kasten’s interview:

    This will be important context to remember this offseason. Dodgers will go after FAs if they feel fit is right. But they’re also confident they have 6-7 young players potentially capable of MLB impact next year

    Some have compared it to the young wave they brought up in 2019

    1. 2019:
       Matt Beaty,
       Alex Verdugo
       Edwin Rios
       Kyle Garlick
       Gavin Lux
       Tony Gonsolin
       Dustin May

       Did I forget anyone?

       2023
       Vargas
       Busch
       Pepiot
       Stone
       Miller
       Amaya
       Outman
       Rushing
       Grove

       1. That’s 9 mark. Almost 50% more than the quoted source implies.

          IMHO, there’s as much chance of Rushing being rushed (hee hee) as their is Bauer or Puig coming back.

          1. Bauer is coming back, Puig maybe, Rushing – no chance. So, less of a chance would be more like it.

             1. LOL.

       2. Amaya? What is it with you guys and Amaya. Rushing won’t make it in 2023. Grove is a trade chip in my opinion.

          1. I’m not quite there with Amaya. His glove better be absolutely incredible if you’re going with his bat, but he does have very good on-base skills.

             I don’t think you have to have all home-run hitters in the lineup.

33. Interesting article on Dodger Nation about TT. At the end of the article there is a video that is worth the watching.
    https://dodgersnation.com/dodgers-news-trea-turners-agent-sends-highlights-reel-to-teams/2022/11/08/

    1. Cool video and one of the reasons I think he is outa here.

34. Emmet Sheehan was absolutely DOMINANT in AFL action today

    The Dodgers prospect struck out 8 batters in a row and finished with 10 punchouts.

    1. I’ve been following Sheehan’s minor league stats and I am high on him.

       1. Since 2005, only one pitcher had racked up at least eight strikeouts while allowing no runs with one or fewer hits and walks in the AFL.

          On Tuesday, the Dodgers’ Emmet Sheehan became the second:

          https://atmlb.com/3FVuRtf

       2. I look at their stats, but stats alone don’t tell the story. You also have to use the “eye test,” and I am even more compressed with Emmet using that metric.

          I saw him a couple of times last year and probably 8 or 9 times this year, and the progress is astounding!

          I have him as the #6 Dodger Top Prospect.

          https://ladodgertalk.com/top-dodger-prospects/

          1. Sheehan and Kopp are the next big things. Both have insane stuff.

35. Dodgers claim outfielder Luke Williams off waivers from the Marlins. Williams, 25, was originally drafted by the Phillies. He has hit .240 in 137 big league games. He split last season between the Giants and the Marlins. Another name in the LF sweepstakes. Also, AJ Pollock declined his player option with the ChiSox, instead taking the 5 mil buy out. Williams is pure AAA emergency fodder.

36. Toribo reports Dodgers will decline Alberto’s 2 mil option

    1. Also declining Nelson’s option.

       1. Just read that. They will probably try to bring him back at a lower cost

          1. I think it was a $1.1 Million Option. I’ll bet he’s still injured or not progressing.

             I guess they could sign him to a minor league deal to open up rester spots.

37. Need lots of space for Rule V players, I think.

38. For B&P:

    News: Jerry Dipoto just indicated Mariners are unlikely to extend Mitch Haniger a qualifying offer.

    1. Haniger has been injury prone. He is an interesting option, but not worth a huge deal to me. Dodgers declined Duffy’s option. Country music lost a great guitarist today. Alabama’s Jeff Cook passed away at age 73 in Florida after an extended illness. RIP Jeff, you will be missed.

    2. Sign him.

    3. Yep, he’d be AJ Pollock all over again. I think he’s worth a gamble. Right-handed power seems to be a Unicorn. Remember a couple of years ago when he was the most talked about trade target on this site?

39. The Luke Williams era begins!
    In case you missed it, he’s a UT guy the Dodgers just picked up on waivers from the Marlins. Who knows? Maybe the Dodgers could do for him what they did for Chris Taylor and Justin Turner when they came over. Like Taylor, he has decent speed, and it seems that he’s a candidate to replace Alberto. (Maybe he can pitch in blow-outs.)
    Williams must feel good about this. He’s a local guy, from south Orange County. A 3rd-round pick out of Dana Hills High.
    Anyway, sometimes little deals make a big difference, as was the case with Taylor, Justin and Max Muncy too.
    ‘

    1. I am less impressed than you are. He did not impress anyone at any of his three stops in the majors. He is AAA fodder.

40. This is not a political comment!

    We all know that Rob Manfred moved the All-Star Game to Denver from Atlanta because of the “allegedly” restrictive Georgia Voting Laws. What happened in the election was a referendum on that and Manfred. Voters turned out in record numbers (they had no problems voting) and voted out the race-baiting Stacy Abrams and, in effect, said, “F YOU, Rob Manfred! The people have spoken! If you want to do the right thing, you will bring the All-Star Game back to ATL in 2023.

    1. We should have an election for Baseball Commissioner. I wonder how well Manfred would do?

       1. He would lose in a landslide

41. The way the Dodgers use the waiver wire, I wonder if Luke Williams will still be on the roster on Opening Day, or Spring Training for that matter.

    1. 50-50

       1. 20-80

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