Every Dodger fan has their own idea of how to “fix” the Dodgers or how to build them for the playoffs. First of all, the Dodgers don’t need “fixed” – they won 111 games and picked a horrible time to turn cold. After leading MLB in hitting with RISP with a .272 BA (Houston was 2nd with a .270 BA), the Dodgers proceeded to hit .147 during their short time in the postseason. With RISP, the Dodgers were #1 in the following categories:
- Hits
- Doubles
- RBI
- BB
- OB%
- OPS
The Dodgers were 3rd in HR with RISP (which is bad) with 357. By contrast, the Astros struck out 270 times with RISP. The Dodgers were one of the seven worst teams in baseball when it came to striking out with RISP. They were the only team of the “Sucky Seven” that made the playoffs… and they did not make it for long. The fact that they led the league in hitting with RISP tells us that they scored runs in bunches… The strikeout numbers tell us that they frequently did not score. With RISP, it was “feast or famine” from game to game and series to series. The San Diego Series was a “famine,” and then they went home!
The Dodgers, as they are currently constructed, won 111 games but were “cold” in the playoffs. So that begs the question, do they stay substantially the same and hope to be “hot” in the playoffs next year? I think not. I have come up with five (5) problems the Dodgers need to address by the start of 2023.
I. Not Enough Homegrown Pitchers
I have long been a proponent of building a strong farm system. If you look at the Dodgers farm system and do not see its intrinsic strength, you probably think the Sothern Border is secure, and that fentanyl is not killing a large number of people in America. Some things are just plain obvious. I have always felt that the majority of your starting pitchers should be homegrown. You also promote your best players and trade supporting pieces for other pieces you need. Occasionally you sign a Premier Free Agent. When you have a team as successful as the Dodgers for a number of years, and you draft at the back of the pack, so you have you look for value in many forms.
The Dodgers have been very successful in developing their farm system, considering where they traditionally draft. Currently, the Dodgers have several TOP 100 prospects and some talent that I consider to be “premier.” Diego Cartaya, Miguel Vargas, Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, and Emmet Sheehan are all Top Level Prospects (in my opinion). Dalton Rushing is close. A level below are Ryan Pepiot, Mike Busch, Andy Pages, and Jose Ramos.
When I say “Top Prospect,” I am referring to someone who has the ability to be a star. Will they? Time will tell… probably less than half make it, but sometimes you get lucky, and more make that leap. The next level are the guys who are not All-Stars, but journeyman players who will have a nice career in MLB. Again, not all will make it, but you have to go through the motions because you never know which ones are which. Justin Turner was drafted in the 7th round, and up until he was picked up by the Dodgers, he was pretty much the 25th man…. or lower. While not the best at his position, he became a driving force. For every top or second-tier player who doesn’t make it, there may be a lower-level guy who ends up soaring with the eagles.
I am a firm believer in building your pitching staff through the farm system. If you look at the Houston Astros Depth Chart under Starting Pitchers, you will see the following names:
Except for Justin Verlander, who was acquired in a trade, the rest of the pitchers were all home-grown and were mostly acquired BEFORE Houston was good (during their “Tanking Era”). They were acquired during the time they tanked for years. Still, they are homegrown.
The Dodgers have Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller, Emmmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, and Ronan Kopp (and some others) – all of whom could be ready in 2023 – 2024. Not all will be starters, however. Not all will be good to great, but I think that Gavin Stone, Bobby Miller, and Emmet Sheehan have the tools and the best shot at starting. To me, Grove, Pepiot, Knack, Frasso, and Kopp all profile better as relievers.
Stone is ready to move into the Dodgers rotation in 2023. Bobby Miller and Emmett Sheehan can both use more seasoning at AAA and AA, respectively, but they could see the Show in 2023. The Dodgers will be connected to some Free Agent pitchers, but I cannot see them signing Jacob de Grom or Justin Verlander. I am not certain Clayton Kershaw will be back. They do want Tyler Anderson back, and I would offer him the QO and try to sign him to a three or four-year deal at a lesser amount. Worst case: You have him for another year at $19.5 Million. Right now, this could be the rotation:
- Julio Urias
- Dustin May
- Tony Gonsolin
- Tyler Anderson
- Gavin Stone
I like Andrew Heaney. Yes, I see his HRs, but I think that can be “fixed,” especially if he becomes a reliever. He could be that “closer” everyone craves. Your sight tells you that he has great “swing and miss” stuff but is subject to giving up the long ball. Vision tells you he could be a lockdown reliever. Then, there is Walker Buehler, who should be back in 2024, but there are no guarantees with two Tommy John Surgeries under his shoulder (not belt). Still, you have to hope and try.
Andrew Friedman will try and drive up what teams have to pay de Grom and Verlander, but he should stay away from them. Keep growing your own, and sign Tyler Anderson. Ryan Pepiot and Mike Grove are still both very much in play. Give them time…
II. Too Many Choirboys.
It occurred to me that maybe the Dodgers needed a “bad boy” or two. Now, I don’t mean they should hire a serial killer, but all of their players are choirboys! The Dodgers don’t have players with an “edge.” Players with an “edge” are guys like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Bryce Harper, Kirk Gibson, et al. Trevor Bauer (whom many of you hate) had an “edge.” I want to remind you not to rush to judgment or Bauer. While I think it is a long shot that he will be back in Dodger Blue, it is obvious that his accuser is lying out her ass! His suspension will be overturned! I happen to like players who are away from the norm. Chase Utley had an edge.
Mookie Betts is Politically Correct and very “corporate.” Freddie Freeman is all puppy dogs and teddy bears. Justin Turner and Max Muncy are just good ole’ boys. Same with CK. No one has an edge… Sometimes you want that guy who can put the team in check and lead by example. I don’t believe the Dodgers have that guy. I hate to say this, but “Carlos Correa might be that guy!” If the Dodger players are OK with him, who am I to say otherwise? As you will see later, I am not a huge advocate of Carlos, but I know he is under consideration. The Dodgers need that player with an edge. Maybe it is a sub or second-tier free agent… Maybe it is Hanser Alberto… again!
III. Not Pushing the Prospects
If there is one beef I have with Andrew Friedman, it is that he does not generally “push” prospects. Miguel Vargas should have been “pushed” earlier and longer last season. He should have played more LF in the minors and continued to do so after he got to the Bigs. The best hitter I can liken Miguel to is Alex Bregman, in that they both walk as much as they strike out. Alex Bregman was 22 when he made his MLB debut, and he has struck out more than he walked for a few years, but not anymore! Miguel I think Miguel Vargas is a hitter in the style of Alex Bregman. Miguels’ power will come, but he is already a Hit and RBI machine. He can play 3B, but on next year’s Dodger team, he will likely have to play LF.
Miguel has hit .300 at every level, every year. In 1,612 Minor League ABs, Miguel has hit .313 with a .390 OB% and a .878 OPS. He has struck out 284 times and walked 194 times. Last season was almost 50/50 in walks to strikeouts.
Gavin Stone was also ready for the challenge of pitching to big-league hitters. He could have helped the Dodgers down the stretch, but I can see the Dodgers not wanting to start the clock ticking last season. 2023 is a new season, and he should be on the team. Vargas was in the Top 10 in RBI in the PCL. Jason Martin, who is five years older, led the league. By the way, Jason has almost double the minor league at-bats of Miguel – 3,131! Martin strikes out 29% of the time, while Vargas strikes out 17% of the time.
IV. Too Much Information
Sometimes too much information leads to paralysis by analysis. One thing that really bothers me is to see a player strike out and then go back to the dugout and study an iPad while the inning continues. That is probably the worst time to do that. Sometimes you see three or four players doing that at a time. It takes them away from the game and flow of energy. It takes them away from their teammates. This prevents them from rooting for their teammates and can alter the momentum. Freddie Freeman, Joe Maddon, and many other baseball people think that studying an iPad during the game is not only not productive but borders on moronic!
Maybe there are occasions where it is important to look at an iPad during a game, but it puts the player on an island and isolates them from their teammates. I call BS on it. You should play during the games. Study after the games. I also have no idea if this is a thing, but is it possible that the Dodger’s brain trust gives the players too much information during the playoffs, which causes paralysis by analysis? Sometimes the best thing is just to shut up, quit overthinking, and play! I think this Front Office is capable of providing TMI!
V. Not Enough Balls in Play
Nothing good comes from a strikeout unless you consider not hitting into a double play “good!” In the playoffs, a strikeout equals one less opportunity. Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger are strikeout machines. Maybe Cody can be fixed, but do you really want to wait another year to find out? I don’t. I would bid goodbye to Cody, Joey, Trayce, and CT3 (yes, CT3). Here are the Dodger player’s strikeout percentages:
- Joey Gallo 49%
- Trayce Thompson 42%
- Chris Taylor 40%
- Cody Bellinger 30%
- Max Muncy 30%
- Gavin Lux 23%
- Trea Turner 20%
- Justin Turner 19%
- Mookie Betts 18%
- Freddie Freeman 17%
- Will Smith 19%
- Justin Turner
Max Muncy makes up for his strikeouts with a huge number of walks, and for that, he can stay, but the Dodgers have to figure out how to eliminate a large percentage of those “empty at-bats. Saying Goodbye to CT3, Trayce, Cody, and Joey gives you an opportunity for more productive at-bats. The Astros got to where they are with Rookie Jeremy Pena as their SS (he hit .253 with a .289 OB%) and 2nd-year players Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers in the Outfield. Martin Maldonado (their catcher) hit .186.
What Now?
I would love to have Trea Turner back, but I think Philly or the ATL will offer him big money. I would take Dansby Swanson at the right deal, but I think Xander Bogaerts or Carlos Correa are more likely. Xander is the oldest of the bunch. Carlos is the most injured. Dansby Swanson is a level below, but I could see that happening. If the Dodgers want to spend on Trea Turner… fine, but any of the above shortstops would be acceptable. The backup plan is Gavin Lux, and while I do believe he will continue to grow offensively, but I worry about the mental aspect (YIPS) of playing SS. There, I said It!
Of course, the other part of the plan is to get a Centerfielder. I prefer Bryan Reynolds, a 27-year-old switch hitter whose best years are ahead of him. I think he would slot nicely in the lineup, depending upon which SS is signed. I would trade for him and try to sign him long-term immediately. To get him, it will take an overpay, namely Mike Busch, James Outman, Andy Pages, and a pitcher or two. James Outman is a strikeout machine (32% in the minors). He has no future in LA.
By the way, Andy Pages is hitting .317 with a .408 OB% and .958 OPS in the Arizona Fall League. He has 4 HR in 60 ABs. Jose Ramos is hitting .308. If Pittsburgh would rather have Ramos over Pages, then I would do that. Ideally, this is the team:
- C – Will Smith
- 1B – Freddie Freeman
- 2B – Gavin Lux
- SS – Trea Turner (Correa, Bogearts, Swanson)
- 3B – Max Muncy
- LF – Miguel Vargas
- CF – Bryan Reynolds
- RF – Mookie Betts
- DH – Justin Turner
Bench – Barnes, Amaya, Alberto (get in better shape, Hanser), Rios
Alberto is cheap, and the Dodgers need his attitude. We know who Barnsie is; Jacob Amaya becomes the Swiss Army knife; He doesn’t have to hit, and Edwin Rios is back after a full year of recovery from his shoulder operation. Rios can play 1B, 3B, and Outfield.
I can’t say that team is built for the playoffs, because I think that is dumb. What I can say is that I think the offense would be more consistent, if not as explosive. This is a tweak… not an overhaul!
Hnnm , lineup looks good to me . However we would be giving up a lot for Reynolds. Maybe bette to hold on to Belli for one last chance to turn it around. I could probably live with 20 Hr, .230 average and his GG defense.#
Without the shift next season his average should go up even if he does not correct his swing.
Bench looks weak and I do not want JT back. He obviously is on a sharp decline.
Your proposed rotation is good while not excellent. Other than you I ´d be willing to go the risk with deGrom. Yes, injury prone but when healtyh THE best in the game.
Would make Phillipps the closer. With Hudson back, Treinen, Almonte, Vesia,Graterol we would have a nice nucleus of high leverage pitchers to shorten games.Lots of depth behind that group too with Kahnle, Ferguson, V-Gone, Martin, Heaney among some other arms.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m with you DR, I think there’s too many far-fetched ideas in Mark’s proposal. If you think you can trade all those players for Reynolds, you should just trade them for Nolan instead. It has about as much chance of happening. Oh shit, that reminds me to check my powerball ticket!
Reynolds may be a good trade target–a good fielder with an .806 OPS in 2022. But a closer look suggests he may not be the guy who solves the lineup’s strikeout problem.
He had 141 Ks against 56 walks in 542 ABs. That’s about 38%–that’s more than Belli, and just bit lower than Taylor and Thompson.
It would be great if the Dodgers developed a great contact hitter, like Arraez or maybe the Indi, I mean Guardians Steven Kwan. It seems that major league baseball just isn’t interested in nurturing the next Gwynn, Carew, Boggs or Ichiro. Is another Brett Butler too much to ask for?
It would be great if Vargas can replicate his minor league habits, but he certainly didn’t do so in a too-brief audition that somehow, against all reason, landed the overmatched rookie on the postseason roster.
5 out of 4 people struggle with math. If he struck out 38% of the time in 542 ABs he would have struck out 206 times! I use strikeout divided by ABs, but that is not quite right.
Fangraphs has his strikeout % at 23%, but last year was his worst year. In 2021 he struck out 18.4%
Mike Trout was overmatched his first 145 MLB AT Bats.
Dansby Swanson struck out 182 times last year and would have led all Dodgers. And that was during his best full season. Another not-so-good suggestion if you want to limit K’s. Carlos and Xander are much better options in that regard.
I did not look up Swanson’s strikeouts so that would probably knock him off the list.
Good article, Mark.
The proposed lineup looks great. But I think CT is gonna make the roster instead of either Amaya or Alberto. Friedman overpaid to extend Taylor, but can’t see Dodgers waiving him and eating the $45 million remaining on his contract. Hopefully, Chris can be useful utility player again.
Bryan Reynolds is a young, talented player under team control for 3 more years. However, his defensive metrics were not good in 2022. He was among the worst MLB CF in DRS and in outs above average in 2022. He was much better in prior years, so 2022 may have been an outlier.
He posted a 3.0 war in 2022 with 807 OPS, 126 OPS+, and 23% SO% .
Brandon Nimmo is 2 years older, but a free agent. In 2022, he had 5.0 war, 800 OPS, 130 OPS+ , 17% SO%, with better fielding metrics.
The career stats of Reynolds and Nimmo are similar with OPS+ of 127 and 130.
Either player would be an upgrade at CF, and Reynolds probably has more upside. However, Nimmo can be signed without losing any prospects, just a draft pick.
If neither Reynolds nor Nimmo is feasible, I would still consider retaining Bellinger under an incentive based contract with Taylor, Outman, and Thompson as backup options. Not ideal scenario, but still good defense with MVP upside.
Overall, no need to panic or make drastic changes to the roster. Upgrade SS and CF, retain Kershaw and Anderson, and give young players a chance.
Hey, Mark. Didn’t MLB say that there would be no more iPads in the dugout after the Astros debacle? I swear I heard that somewhere and yet every team still uses them ad nauseam.
There are limits, but they are using them. I see it all the time.
Swap out JT for Vargas
Sign Trea, Carlos or Xander to play SS
Keep Belli and let Martin, Outman and Bush compete for LF.
I would rather have Carlos or Xander in the middle of the order than Trea at the top of it.
If Bauer comes back, it changes the pitching situation quite a bit.
Maybe we should take a chance on Mitch Hanniger for left field.
“Maybe we should take a chance on Mitch Hanniger for left field”
I’d rather give Vargas those at bats and bring back JT who had a 116 OPS+ last year, in spite of an horrendous start to the year and a bad last couple of weeks. For the months of July through September he was one of the best hitters in MLB. I think he’s still got enough left to warrant giving him another year. And I think Andrew could probably bring him back for something less than his option calls for if he really needed to save a few million.
The matter of fixing a lineup with two many strikeouts had me look up Outman’s 2002 league numbers.
But first, it looks like my math regarding Reynolds needs a correction. I used to be pretty good doing math in my head, but the percentage Ks should be measured against plate appearances, not ABs. The Baseball Cube stat service put Reynolds at 23%, which would certainly be an improvement over Thompson, Belli and Taylor. (And of course Gallo–but why mention him? He’ll be moving on. The others might be staying.)
Back to Outman…
In OKC, had 63 Ks (against 32 walks) in 212 ABs. In Tulsa, he had 89 Ks (against 38 walks) in 261 ABs. That’s a 25% K rate in OKC and about 28% in Tulsa. His OPS was over .900 in Tulsa and over 1.000 in OKC.
In his too-brief visit to the majors, Outman struck out 7 times in 13 ABs–but every other plate appearance resulted in a hit or walk, resulting in the absurd OPS of 1.409. Outman collected two walks in 15 PAs; Vargas got two in 50.
Anyway, Outman’s K/BB ratio for the year doesn’t seem particularly outlandish. Yes, it was the minors, but I’m not sure why anyone should be dismissive of the potential of Outman, who is also a first-rate fielder. Vargas, like Lux and Belli and Seager, is the young, anointed one. Outman, at 25, is more a late bloomer. Not saying he’s another Judge–but Judge was a late bloomer too.
Martin isn’t much older than Outman. Why no love for Martin? K rate is less. Power is about the same. Can play all 3 outfield positions and has a better arm.
I know you have a personal interest in Martin but I’m guessing they probably won’t protect him in the Rule 5 and someone else will grab him. He certainly deserves a chance to make an MLB roster and I’m guessing he does next year.
If, for some reason, he’s still in the organization come ST, he needs to be given every opportunity to make the club.
You’re right STB, they probably won’t add him to the forty before the draft, unless they don’t acquire an outfielder before then.
Here are theDodger players who are Rule 5 Eligible:
1. Mike Busch
2. Diego Cartaya
3. Jonny DeLuca
4. Kody Hoese
5. Brandon Lewis
6. Andy Pages
7. Jose Ramos
8. Ryan Ward
9. Jeff Belge
10. Carlos Duran
11. Braydon Fisher
12. Alec Gamboa
13. Hyun-il Choi
14. Nick Robertson
15. Jerming Rosario
Here are the ones who will be protected:
1.. Busch
2. Cartaya
3. De Luca
4. Pages
5. Ramos
The Dodgers might lost Duran or Choi.
Why must B&P have personal interest? He stated facts.
The entire season I’ve wondered why no love for Martin who, in my opinion, was the best outfielder on the AAA team. He’s got some serious power.
Vargas is not an outfielder. Martin is.
Well Mark, you’re mostly right. Maybe close to one hundred percent. But since some may be uncomfortable with 100, we’ll go with 94 percent.
I agree about players with an edge. They should have signed Bryce Harper when they had a chance. But that boat is long gone. I have no idea why the Dodgers would not re-sign Trea Turner. Lot of hits, lots of speed and some power. If he walks, that’s a lot of offense to replace.
Yes, you could replace him with Carlos Correa. But most Dodgers fans would hate the move. Why piss off your fan base?
I get that Trea wants big bucks. So did Corey and he found it in Texas. Not like the Dodgers can’t afford it. Lot of money coming off the books. They are again asking Dodger fans to pay more for tickets. So, I’m not real sympathetic about their budget issues. Just sign him. Why should any other team outbid the Dodgers for an elite shortstop? He’s actually fun to watch. He had a huge impact on the 111 win season.
So we can forget thoughts of Nolan Arrenado, toss in Aaron Judge too. That’s unlikely to happen and would Judge actually put the Dodgers over the top? Probably not.
Definitely agee with the young pitchers. But the Dodgers miss Walker Buehler. They need a young gun with fire.
Certainly bring back Anderson, not so sure on Heaney. The Japanese hurler is interesting. But the prospects, led by Gavin Stone, offer a lot of upside.
Still think they hang on to Cody Bellinger. But Mark may be right. There are definitely two camps.
For those of you (and I think it’s probably a majority here) who want to wave good-bye to JT, I think that would be a mistake. Yes, he had a horrendous start to the year, but for the months of July through September he was one of the best hitters in MLB.
His line for those months was .340/.412/.514/.926. That represented almost half of his at bats this year so it wasn’t a small sample size.
If he was old and past his prime, and simply unable to withstand the rigors of a full MLB season, please explain to me why his really productive part of the season was the second half, when he should have been the most tired and decrepit.
No, he didn’t contribute during the loss to SD………………………..and neither did most of the rest of the guys.
The man deserves another year, for a multitude of reasons, but primarily because he was productive and an asset to the team.
Great repartee guys. A lot of ideas going around. Of course, no one has a clue what is happening in AF’s brain right now. I was disconcerted that he said flat out there would be no changes in the coaching staff. I, like Mark, think a new style and philosophy is needed. Von Shylock needs to go and so does Brant Brown. I wrote AF and told him this, but i got the silent treatment from him.
Good write up Mark.
I especially agree with your comments on getting a player or two with an “edge”. And your comments on the iPads in the dugout relate to that. Joe Maddon made a comment on that in an interview a while back. Said something to the effect that players are so obsessed with their own ABs and the stats of the next matchup that they don’t have their head in the game.
Which reminds me of something from many years ago when I was in college. I came to really dislike open book/notes tests. They was common in my stat, accounting and finance classes. I’d study my ass off before the test. But then I’d second guess myself over and over again during the test to double check I wasn’t screwing something up. Before I knew it, I was running out of time and had to rush to finish. I found that just being prepared and forgetting about the books and my notes produced better grades. Constantly checking my work got me out of rhythm and broke my concentration. I wonder if the obsessive use of IPads and looking at stats and data during a game have a similar effect. Prepare before the game and then go out there and play!
Just a thought.
I have a hypothesis on the RISP problem we had in the playoffs. We may have been number 1 during the season, but my guess is that success came from the first four or five in our line-up. We are really top-heavy and the bottom four or five struck out at a very high rate. My guess is the RISP average for our bottom four was one of the worst in the league and in the playoffs that was exposed when the top of the order was not successful. I know we had a great team last year, but I think it was disproportionately dependent on the top four versus the rest of the playoff teams. Our bottom four and bench, I would bet had a combined RISP average below league average and a strikeout percentage way above league average. If we lose one of our top four (Trea) we could be in trouble quickly.
What if the Dodgers lose Trea and sign Aaron Judge and Xander Bogearts (who should be cheaper)?
Next, JT and Clayton are allowed to walk saving $$, as does Bellinger.
Betts goes to 2B. Lux goes to CF (give him all Spring). He has the speed to cover it, and no Yips out there.
Try this on:
1. Betts 2B (R)
2. Freeman 1B (L)
3. Judge RF (R)
4. Muncy 3B (L)
5. Bogearts SS (R)
6. Lux CF (L)
7. Smith C (R)
8. Vargas LF (R)
9. Busch/Alberto DH (L-R)
Why not have Mookie or Judge play CF and just leave Lux at 2nd base?
Judge and Betts have both played CF, and no need to try to train Lux on another new position.
Otherwise, lineup would be great!
The title of Joseph Wambaugh’s “The Choirboys” was sarcastic, since they were a group of unethical LA cops who exploited their status in various ways.
Could the Dodger Choirboys use someone with an edge? I think there’s something to that. We all like Will Smith at catcher, but JT Realmuto is a guy who shows competitive fire. Could Correa be that guy? We certainly enjoyed how the edgy Joe Kelley mocked him . (Speaking of pitchers, Mad Bum is another who had that edge–and we loved how Muncy barked back.)
The Dodgers seem to me missing the kind of emotional leader that helps set the competitive tone and inspires harder, more urgent play. Back in the day, Kirk Gibson brought that kind of edge to the Dodgers.
Is there anyone out there–a free agent or trade target– who could fill that role for the Dodgers? Is that an element AF should be seeking?
This might be stating the obvious but the Dodgers do not have a 5 man rotation. And it isnt even a 6 man rotation. I’ve been charting the starters the last 3-4 yrs. They rarely go on 5 days 3 times in a row. Its often 6 or even 7 days.Someone is often slotted in to spread them out.
My question is how does not having a set routine affect them?