I want to apologize for the late post today. I have another post just about ready, but after reading comments for the past couple of days, I just wanted to speak from the heart about the current state of our favorite team. At the same time, I wanted everyone to at least have something new to read.
This season’s failure was so much of a mixed bag for me. I wasn’t in an angry rage like in years past as 2017 and 2019 really tested my temper and self-control. I wasn’t in disbelief like 2019. I wasn’t just disappointed like last year. It almost seems like it’s getting easier to accept the unfortunate outcome each season even though I thought it was nearly impossible to choke like we did with such a historic team.
This year is a little different for me. It doesn’t sting as bad, but it just seems to linger. I’m not experiencing any sort of painful emotions, but I just keep thinking about it, and thinking about it. In past years, I was mad enough to not want to watch any more baseball. I don’t have that same frustration this year. I’m not watching every game, but I am watching some of them. I’m also looking forward to watching the World Series. After all, the Phillies are a great underdog story and they aren’t a team I actually despise. This might be sacrilegious, but my hate for the Astros is even waning. They were my favorite AL team before 2017 and most of the cheaters are gone by now. Old school manager and former Dodger great Dusty Baker is leading the team and he’s in position to earn his first World Series win as manager. So, it wouldn’t be horrible for me if the they won, because it’s something I would personally like for Dusty.
The best I can describe the lingering feelings about my team is part disbelief and part frustration. Maybe numb is the best word to describe it. I don’t believe that the postseason is a crapshoot. I sincerely believe there are things this team can do better to be better in the postseason. I think part of my frustration is the notion that this front office seems to think everything is just fine and dandy and no changes need to be made. It just seems to be “Back to the drawing board” acquire some guys and do it all over again next year. This time we’ll focus on RISP!
This notion of RISP being the one thing that Andrew is most focused on is the thing that keeps me lingering. It’s what’s bothering me the most, the source of my numbness, or non-feeling about this early exit. Instead of being mad, I think I’m just frustrated knowing that things just aren’t going to change. The front office seems to have tunnel vision when it comes to statistics and analytics. They look at baseball as a series of events that can be explained and/or predicted, to some extent, through the law of averages while failing to acknowledge external factors or anything else that can’t be explained with math. This shortcoming can’t be fixed since the people in charge can’t seem to acknowledge its existence.
Relying so heavily on analytics removes the humanity from the game. Even the math contradicts itself. Failing to realize that the math isn’t completely reliable, but using it solely as your in game decision making tool is a curse that just can’t be broken when the group think is so heavily invested. How can a team that leads in every category of RISP during the regular season, fail so badly in the exact same categories during a single post-season series? Do we really think the extra time Andrew is going to use in the offseason to try to figure that out is going to bare fruit? Unfortunately, heart, desire and will can’t be measured with math, so he’ll no doubt fail to crack that code.
You would think by now, that the Front Office would realize that playing strictly by the book, especially in the post-season will put you at a disadvantage. Consider this team has been in the postseason for 10 straight years, yet only has one ring to show for it. Why do they consistently underperform the statistics when it comes to post-season baseball? They have a formula that wins out in the regular season, but they don’t even apply that formula in the postseason. As long as there’s an analytics driven reason for it, everything is excusable. Tell me when, in the regular season, you pulled a starter, who’s throwing a 2 hit shutout and retired the last 11 in a row, in the fifth inning the day after a bullpen game?
Do you think analytics would have driven the decision to put in an injured slugger against Eckersley in 1988? I certainly don’t. It was purely balls and heart that drove that decision. Gibby had a single AB in the entire series and Tommy had the balls to put him into that spot. Gibby had the heart to pull it off, and It produced one of the greatest moments that baseball has ever witnessed without the need of following any kind of premeditated script.
Do you think Bob Melvin didn’t have the same stats regarding Vesia and Cronenworth? He went with his guy and Cronenworth delivered the decisive blow.
This season, the Dodgers were 14-5 against the Padres. They won every regular season series against them, outscored them by close to 150 runs and prevented close to 150 more runs for nearly a +300 advantage in run differential. The Padres were a massive underdog and they swept 3 straight games against Goliath while defying all statistics that would say otherwise. If this isn’t an indication that you might not be doing things correctly, I don’t know what is. Yet, Andrew Friedman’s tunnel vision is focused on an arbitrary statistic to explain the outcome. No change expected for any part of the leadership team or coaching staff. Business as usual.
Change Needs to Come from the Top
I had my concerns when the Dodgers announced that Stan Kasten would be President of the team. My biggest fear is that we would turn us into the Braves from the 1990’s instead of the Yankees from the late 90’s and early 2000’s. Sure, that would be an improvement from where we were, but not enough to be great, something that this cash cow should strive to be. Now that my fear has come to fruition, I can’t help but think we could have done better. It’s not that Stan has done a horrible job. As the President of the team, he’s responsible for running the business and it sure looks like business is good. Ticket prices and concessions are through the roof and as a result, the team is afforded the opportunity to keep running out one of the highest payrolls in the game, a good thing if you’re spending that money on top talent. The flip side is this team seems to be content always being the bridesmaid and never the bride.
My next concern was when the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman. I didn’t like it at the time, but he fooled me for a while. Why the Dodgers would go after a small-market GM that’s used to operating on a shoestring budget was beyond me. I didn’t like all the platoons the Rays had and the ever-changing rosters that came as a result of the endless cycles of drafting high, developing high-upside talent, then selling them off for more high-side prospects. I couldn’t see how this would translate to success with a large market team. To his credit, he doesn’t run this team the same way. Well, we still seem to always revert to the platoon. We just can’t seem to get rid of that altogether. We’ve also failed to resign any home grown talent, we’re just not trading them for prospects except for Puig who had other reasons that might have caused his change of scenery.
If that wasn’t bad enough, AF did the unthinkable and conducted a managerial search that resulted in two finalists that had no prior management experience. I was trying to be open-minded at the time, but how would a journeyman center fielder that relied purely on speed in his career have the skill set to manage the crown jewel of the National League? Known for his speed and nice guy attitude, I doubted his baseball acumen as a mostly replacement-level player that had one tool to work with during his playing days. He never stood out as a heady baseball player to me. He was just a poor replacement for a very good, heady leadoff hitter in Brett Butler. Brett seemed to figure out how to be great at getting on base and using his speed to be a game changer. The but, the offer, the half swing, the walk. He knew he didn’t have to swing from the heels and almost never did.
Doc, AF and Kasten all have their strong points, but none of them are without serious flaws. I think they all share an attribute that’s causing this team’s futility and that attribute is not having a serious commitment to excellence. They don’t show me that winning the ring is the most important thing. They all seem satisfied that what they’re doing is good enough. No killer instinct and no accountability. Just business as usual if we make the playoffs and the money keeps rolling in.
The other thing that’s really holding this team back is relying too much on past performance to predict future results. They all just fail to admit that this could be what’s holding this team back. As long as Doc keeps making decisions by the book that Andrew and his team provides, how can he be held accountable? As long as Andrew keeps getting to the playoffs (where analytics decided it’s a crapshoot), while also having a top minor league system, how can he be held accountable?
The failure to realize that this game is not a simulation is our demise. Not doing something different is our failure. At some point, you have to make a change, assume some risk, shake things up just for the sake of shaking things up.
I thought it was very premature for Andrew to come out, do the presser and definitively state that no changes will be made to the coaching staff. Someone needs to lose their job, whether it be a hitting coach, a bench coach, a manager or a GM. A strong message has to be sent to the entire organization that a 111-win team losing in the first round of the playoffs to a team you beat like a redheaded stepchild all season is unacceptable. Blaming it on a statistic that the team excelled in all year and failed at in the postseason makes absolutely no sense to me and it shouldn’t make sense to anyone else. This line of reasoning has to be questioned. Plato, Socrates and Aristotle would call bullshit on this line of reasoning and know they had to do something different. This contraction of great RISP during the season and horrible RISP in the postseason is obviously not something that can be answered mathematically, instead it should be the biggest hint that you can’t run a team in this manner and a change in strategy is absolutely necessary.
Diversity of thought exists when your management team has different backgrounds and circumstances that will create a range of opinions on how to solve a problem. Disagreement is encouraged and communication is a must. Group speak occurs when everyone thinks the same way, or when you’re surrounded by yes men that don’t have the courage to speak up and offer differing opinions. This is where we are today. Everyone thinks the same way, Andrew, his staff, Doc and Geren are all highly in tune with baseball analytics. Wouldn’t someone with baseball intuition be a valuable asset to point out events on the field that might lead to a different decision and ultimately different results?
One of the people in this management chain needs to speak up and make change happen. Someone needs to have the balls to zig when everyone else is zagging. Someone needs to step up to the plate and hit an unexpected home run like Gibby in 88.
My biggest fear heading into the postseason was that they would manage this team in the same manner that brought so many other postseasons to an early end. What was the face behind the curtain going to do to derail this team? Was Doc going to do Doc things again? I was hoping that the dumbed-down American League rules would help, but don’t underestimate the damage a meddling boss can do create a bad situation. From the roster, to the book, the binder that the nerds put together. It’s all less effective than a trash can in the end.
The numbness I feel is the realization that no matter what we do, the only thing that will change our luck in the postseason is luck itself. Thanks for listening.
Excellent post there BP. I agree with much of what you have said. The other thing I think affected their performance was the 5-day layoff. The only team that got a bye and did not lose was the Astro’s. Dodgers, Mets and Yankees all lost. Now, it might have something to do with the way they used that 5-day lull, and it might not. But I definitely think it was part of the problem. I was stunned when Roberts pulled Anderson. He had the Padres totally flummoxed. I am of the mind that the blame starts at the top and filters down. That is my own opinion. I also think that the players failed to execute even the most minute situational baseball. To top it all off, the defense was horrible. Trea Turner is a very good hitter, but sometimes he just misplays a ball at the most inopportune time. Roster construction for the playoffs was also questionable. A healthy starter like Pepiot would have been an upgrade over Gonsolin who had only made one re-hab start and it showed. So many guys who were just coming off of the IL. Treinen had no business being on that roster, nor did Vargas. That is a combined huge fail by the front office and the coaching staff. And yes, a different voice is needed for the hitters. The lets launch that sucker and hope for the best philosophy sucks. Another exe Dodger gets a managers job, Skip Schumaker hired by the Marlins.
Excellent write-up and I completely agree a “shake up” is indeed in order. It doesn’t matter if a move is symbolic only, but someone needs to be removed from the coaching staff. Whether that change is the bench coach, the game planning/communication coach or my preference the the trio of hitting coaches …..it doesn’t matter to me.
I spend a lot of money going to games, buying swag, attending ST etc. and after not winning the WS once again I will be hesitant to spend so freely unless some change is made. I too was surprised AF so prematurely announced no changes to the staff when he was so cryptic with other parts of his presser.
Most of the changes will be on the roster. With 10 free agents, that is inevitable
B&P congratulations for your excellent article today, I totally agree with you on all the content. Until today I am recovering from the trauma of elimination, as Evan said “barely balance of mourning”
It is important to note that if a shake-up in the organization chart is necessary, in what? I don’t know, it’s true that an organization with 111 wins is difficult to claim something from, but in the postseason something has to be done.
Old Bear also mentions very true points in his comment and opinion, those 5 days that they did or didn’t do? They cooled down a bit before the last series against Colorado and that’s how they ended. based on the same movie from previous postseasons, in short this is my favorite team and I will not listen to Mark’s suggestion to choose another team, because as we say in Mexico “an old love is neither forgotten nor left”
Thanks Jose. I love the cliche at the end. Old sayings like that are wise because they’ve stood the test of time.
Not bad considering they carried 45 on their 40-man roster and the Rule 5 picks and broken pitchers that AF will want to stash. That should leave a spot for a right-handed power bat and an innings eating pitcher. 😉
As a result, I would expect the 25 man to look relatively similar if they don’t create more work for themselves than they have to. Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.
I’m with Mark. I’m extremely high on Vargas and I think he’s the kind of hitter we need. A line drive, gap-to-gap hitter that has the reputation of having a high baseball IQ. Put, him at 3B, 2B or LF and let him roll. Go get a right handed power bat for one of those positions, put him in the other. Use CT3 for last one with other rookies competing with him out of Spring Training. I keep everything else the same.
With the rotation, I bring Bauer back, or cut bait and sign one of the endless list of free-agent pitchers that are a candidate for a tweak and a turnaround. Taiwan Walker and Noah Syndergaard come to mind.
Ya missed one, it is now a 26 man roster my friend.
lol
There’s no problem with analytics, it’s how you use them. During the season, the statistics will bare out, in a short series they may not. It’s like flipping a coin. Flip a coin enough times and you will get heads 50% of the time. But do it only a short amount of time and the results will be off. It’s even possible to get numerous head flips in a row if you flip a coin enough times. Statistics are great but you need to look beyond the numbers.
AKA “The problem with statistics is how you interpret them.” Different words, same meaning. The takeaway is don’t drown yourself in them.
Everybody is seeking to explain or find a truth that explains what happened.
There will be some deep dives on all of this and sooner or later somebody is going to land on the most logical conclusion.
It’s obvious the Dodgers put a lot of faith on the return of injured players, especially Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May etc. But did their starts late in the season inspire a feeling of comfort. No, I don’t think they did. They certainly weren’t ready to deliver in the post season.
Although there was a glimpse or two of the old Cody, it was pretty much a tease as Bellinger resorted to old habits. It’s been what, two or three years?
The offense flattened at the end of regular season. Mookie was off and strikeouts throughout the line-up piled up in bunches, especially with runners in scoring position.
Justin Turner was apparently hurting and so was Gavin Lux, who never fully recovered from the neck injury that derailed his bat.
Now every team to one degree or another has the same issues. It’s a long season, probably too long. Travel is an issue, probably be worse next year.
So where does the organization go from here?
The difference between Kasten’s Braves and Kasten’s Dodgers is the LA franchise has a lot of money and generates huge revenues.
How much does Kasten actually influence the direction of the Dodgers? Probably not a lot. Andrew Friedman sets the direction, probably has total control when it comes to developing the roster.
I’m not sure flipping switches means much. They could flip a switch and make a coaching change or two, but would that really make a difference. They will make some roster changes.
They could make a massive trade or two, wipe out the future. But the Dodgers really want to develop players within the farm system.
So, that probably isn’t going to happen.
Are the Dodgers seriously going after Aaron Judge? Or will they try to bring back Trea Turner?
I’d bring back Turner.
Maybe the Dodgers will be satisfied to make a trade or two, sign a a couple of free agents, but stay clear of the big money players. They will no doubt give Miguel Vargas a chance to start. A couple of pitchers are major league ready.
I’m guessing they bring back Justin Turner. Bellinger? Not sure.
Clayton Kershaw will return. I can see them bringing back Anderson.
There will be changes, but this is still a team that won 111 games, and you don’t tear it all down.
Who knows? Maybe they are serious about Judge.
Good write-up, BP.
Dodgers early post season exit has caused a lot of vitriol in the Dodger blogosphere.
Interesting that the Phillies changed managers and are now in the WS.
That is a very astute statement that cannot be ignored.
However, the Phillies were like 8-9 games under .500 when their manager was fired. They finished about 6 games over .500.
However, upon further review, to compare that to the Dodgers is apples to oranges.
Betts says he’s willing to move to second base if they sign Judge…
He goes on to say…
“Being able to play second base is kind of something I’ve been doing my whole life,” Betts told reporters in early September. “Getting to go back there is just a lot of fun for me, personally. I really, really do enjoy it, but they pay me to catch these fly balls.”
I wouldn’t be surprised if he eventually winds up there, if not sooner.