What About Next Year?

Posted By on September 6, 2022

I had already started this blog post when Whistling Ranger (welcome to LADT) posted this: “I look for the Dodgers to concentrate on roster management in the offseason. There is extreme competition for the 40-man roster.  Look for them to trade older players for younger, promising players that they don’t have to protect. If they don’t, they will lose some through the rule 5 draft or have to DFA them.”

That comment is spot on. In fact, it is a huge understatement! There is likely going to be a huge roster turnover in the offseason as the following prospects must be added to the roster or risked being lost to the Rule 5 Draft: Miguel Vargas has already been added, so he is protected. The players who need to yet be protected are:

  • Michael Busch
  • Andy Pages
  • Jonny DeLuca
  • Diego Cartaya
  • Jose Ramos
  • Carlos Duran

I guarantee that Andrew Friedman is thinking about it… and beyond, even if we don’t care, so I am going to talk about it too. It’s very likely (barring a trade) that all six of those players are protected. The only question is Carlos Duran, who is very projectable, if very raw. Not many teams would draft him, but one of the bottom-feeders would take him in a heartbeat and stash him on their roster all season. MLB says this about him:

“Duran already stood 6-foot-7 and weighed 230 pounds as a 16-year-old when he signed for $300,000 out of the Dominican Republic in March 2018. He made his full-season debut last year and while he logged a 5.56 ERA, he also struck out 115 in 81 innings. Evaluators identified his slider as one of the best in the Minor Leagues.“

Duran has “CLOSER” written all over him, but it might be two more years! That leaves at least six players who will need to be added to the roster. They are Ryan Noda, Ryan Ward, Gus Varland, Mark Washington, Jose Adames, Guillermo Zuniga, and Hyun-il Choi (last season’s minor league pitcher of the year, who has not pitched this season), as well as a few hard-throwing pitchers at Rancho Cucamonga who aren’t throwing enough strikes to even be considered.

The Dodgers are so deep that Trayce Thompson,  Phil Bickford, and Caleb Ferguson are on the fringe. I kid you not! The Dodgers have several (actually about 18) Pending Free Agents, those being: Joey Gallo, David Price, Heath Hembree, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Yency Almonte, Tommy Kahnle, Kevin Pillar,  Trea Turner, Justin Turner (Mutual $16 million option),  Daniel Hudson ($6.5 million Club Option), Danny Duffy ($7 million Club Option), Hanser Alberto ($2 million Club Option), and Jimmy Nelson ($1 million Club Option). Chris Martin is arbitration eligible, and I do not think AF is inclined to roll the dice there (I could be wrong).

So before we go any farther, let’s assume that the following players are absolutely certain to be on the roster in 2023:

  1. Max Muncy recently signed for 2023)
  2. Freddie Freeman
  3. Gavin Lux
  4. Will Smith
  5. Austin Barnes
  6. Trayce Thompson
  7. Mookie Betts
  8. Miguel Vargas
  9. Chris Taylor
  10. James Outman (You have to give him a shot, don’t you?)
  11. Walker Buehler
  12. Dustin May
  13. Tony Gonsolin
  14. Brusdar Graterol
  15. Michael Grove
  16. Julio Urias
  17. Alex Vesia
  18. Blake Treinen
  19. Evan Phillips
  20. Ryan Pepiot

So, you take those twenty players who are what I would consider “locks,” and add in the six (6) who have to be protected:

  1. Michael Busch
  2. Andy Pages
  3. Jonny DeLuca
  4. Diego Cartaya
  5. Jose Ramos
  6. Carlos Duran

That takes us up to 26 players for the 40-man roster. You all know that I have loved Cody Bellinger, and it was me who predicted he would take over for A-Gon longer before anyone thought he was ready. I realize that Cody Bellinger has a world of talent, but I can no longer wait for him to come back to what he once was… IF he can ever come back. Cody Bellinger is the Dodgers Centerfielder in 2022, but I would not offer him arbitration in 2023, fully realizing that he will likely sign with the Yankees, his father’s team. I would move on from Cody.

Trayce Thompson is not the long-term answer. He can play CF, but not at the level of Cody, and he is injury prone (he’s also 32). He is really a 4th outfielder, in all likelihood. He could be the centerfielder next season (along with James Outman), but this would impact the Dodger’s OF defense. OK, this is just the start of what I am going to call the 2023 Dodger ReTool. Let’s just jump into it:

  • Bellinger is gone;
  • Edwin Rios is part of a trade;
  • CT3 could be;
  • Joey Gallo moves on;
  • Justin Turner retires and becomes the Dodgers Vice-President in charge of Htting
  • The Dodgers sign Trea Turner to the same deal Mookie Betts signed;
  • Kevin Pillar is gone.

A lot of what happens next year depends upon what happens THIS year, but there are lots of contingencies:

  1. If the Dodgers win the World Series, I can see Kershaw and Justin Turner retiring. Savings: – $36 Million
  2. Muncy is signed as insurance at 3B
  3. Kimbrel is gone. – Savings $16 Mil
  4. David Price is absolutely gone – Savings $16 Million
  5. The Trevor Bauer Debacle should be over, and I think he will be reinstated. There is a whole lot more to this that we can talk about later (including how unfair this was to the Dodgers).
  6. CT3 could be included in a trade = $15 Mil a year.
  7. What to do with Trea Turner? He will cost Mookie Money. You pay him!
  8. Players will get raises.
  9. Players likely not on the roster or to be protected: Bruihl, Hembree, Kimbrel, Gallo, Martin, Price, Rios, Vivas, Leanard, Bellinger, Pillar, Kahnle, Hudson (50/50).

This is perhaps the most interesting situation in baseball, as the Dodgers have a plethora of free agents leaving the roster and a big chunk of high-profile prospects to add. Many of those prospects have overlapping roles (Michael Busch and Miguel Vargas, Jonny DeLuca, Andy Pages and Jose Ramos), but there is no shortstop and several pitchers (Miller, Stone, Sheehan, Nastrini, et al.), on the way. Jacob Amaya and Jorbit Vivas are in jeopardy of being dropped from the 40-man roster.

The Dodgers traded Beeter, McKinstry, and DeJesus simply because they had no room for them. They do not have a star SS in the system (that’s what happens when all of the SS are gone when you draft. No major league scout that I know of thinks that Gavin Lux is the answer at SS. I guess a major reason we have not seen Bobby Miller or Gavin Stone is that they do not have to be added to the roster in the off-season.

So, there will be no shortage of activity in the offseason. Leonal Valera has surpassed Jorbit Vivas and maybe Eddys Leonard as Utilityman… maybe even Amaya, who is superior defensively. The Dodgers have to sign Trea Turner (no plan B). Andrew Heaney, Tyler Anderson, Yency Almonte,  Daniel Hudson, Danny Duffy, Hanser Alberto, and Jimmy Nelson are all at the top of the list as well. That’s 36 players; Then there are Kershaw and Justin Turner (if they want to return). That’s 38! Add back Bickford and Ferguson, and you are at 40, and I have not included Victor Gonzalez and Andre Jackson, let alone Justin Bruihl and some other obvious possibilities. If the Dodgers re-sign both Turners, this just might be the lineup in 2023:

  1. Betts RF
  2. T-Turner SS
  3. Freeman 1B
  4. Smith C
  5. Muncy 3B
  6. J-Turner DH
  7. Lux 2B
  8. Outman/Thompson CF
  9. Vargas LF

The Rotation? That’s a tale for another day… There will be lots of player turnover… that’s for certain. Damn, I hate to see Cody go… maybe someone else can “fix” him. Phil Jones happens to be available for a fee!

Tribute to Taylor Hawkins by his Son

Public Service Announcement

Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that is 50-100 times stronger than morphine. Pharmaceutical fentanyl was developed for pain management and treatment of cancer patients, and applied in a patch on the skin. Because of its powerful opioid properties, Fentanyl is also diverted for abuse. Fentanyl is added to heroin to increase its potency or be disguised as highly potent heroin. Many users believe that they are purchasing heroin and actually don’t know that they are purchasing fentanyl – which often results in overdose deaths. Clandestinely-produced fentanyl is pouring into the US via the southern border. I write this in memory of a friend I lost last week to it. I know many others who have succumbed as well.

R.I.P. Kent Roberts, My Friend

Kent was just 48-Years-Old and leave behind a wife and a beautiful family. The irony is that Kent was an addict and alcoholic and was clean for 12 years. No one knows where the Fentanyl came from…

This article has 53 Comments

  1. Andrew Heaney has four weeks to go in the season and has a 2.94 ERA. He has pitched 52 innings and allowed 43 hits with 79 strikeouts to go with a 1.08 WHIP. The league is hitting .216 against him. You guys evidently have no kids because I KNOW you threw the baby out with the bathwater.

    Man, you are a fickle, tough crowd. This is baseball. There are ebbs and flows, ups and downs. His underlying stats are too good to not be able to fix this. They have 4 weeks. I think he will be fine and will be on the playoff roster… whether as a starter or a reliever.

    Yes, I hate losing to the Giants too.

    AND… I guess I have to remind you that even with Bellinger, Gallo, and Muncy, the Dodgers have the most explosive lineup in MLB, so there is that. They score the most runs, giveup the fewest, and have the largest differential by a mile with all of these BLACK HOLES. Someone knows what they are doing… and did I mention they have the best record in baseball.

    1. I’m sorry for your loss Mark. My kids have both lost several friends to the devil that is Fentanyl.

  2. Mark, nice blog today about the 40 men roster and outlook to next season.
    However: If the goal is to win the WS this year and a guy like Miller or STone could be the difference in the postseason I could care less about next season. Morever I think that both pitchers will be on the roster next season anyway.
    I also disagree on Ferguson. IMHO he is the best LH reliever on the roster . No way I let him go or unprotected.

    Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. Pure supposition. You have no clue whether they could help or not. Neither has faced MLB competition, especially in a pennant race. Who are you going to drop from the roster to add these two guys? You live in a dream world. AF knows a whole lot more than you do about what his players are capable of.

      1. Until you give them a shot everything is pure supposition. They give Vargas an audtion too.
        Pepiot they tried. Did not work out as hoped for.
        The list is endless of kids coming up late in the season and being helpful in a pennant race.
        And who to drop ? Easy. How about Bruihl, Bickford or Hembree ?

        And hey, what is that nonsens about “AF knows more than you about the players”`? Yeah, I know that too . But can we no longer talk about what we see, what we would do or make suggestions ? Then why are we here to begin with as fans `?This is part of being in a blog or forum.
        Sometimes I really dont get some of you.

        Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        1. You’re right that you should be able to talk about anything Dodger baseball related. If we return “AF Knows Everything” then there isn’t much to talk about.

          With that said, there’s 3 more pitchers with a lot of success in the major leagues that need tryouts before Miller and Stone get theirs. Hembree and Bruhil are easy, Bickford not so much.

          Maybe you get a little more respect if you do your homework. In your words, “The list is endless of kids coming up late in the season and being helpful in a pennant race”. Okay, please enlighten us. Let’s see the top 5 names on your endless list.

        2. Waste of energy Ram. As simple as that. You can go crazy trying to figure out what the playoff roster is going to look like. I prefer to let the guys with the inside knowledge make the choices. I have zero control, so there fore my opinion is useless as is yours. You are more than entitled to post and say what you want, i do likewise. Doesn’t mean I have to agree with you or BP.

        3. Tough crowd, Ram.

          … and you’re right. We’re all just a bunch of armchair GMs who like to opine. That’s why this site exists. I don’t think anyone’s opinion here is less worthy – except for Bluto’s. but he’s a commie.

  3. Rough night, homer bug got to Heaney again. Get it out of the way now. Other than those 4 homers, he was pretty good. 😉

    Another roster crunch? Yes, there will be trades this offseason. But…

    JT and Clayton both might come back for one more year. Neither look like they’re ready to hand ’em up.
    More pitchers are coming back this year, so there will be more DFA’s before the season is over.
    Cody’s bat is making my stomach turn. I’m not sure they’re ready to move on with Outman as his replacement. Someone also needs to play LF, that’s Tryace’s spot.
    I’ll give Belli a 75% chance of returning. Here’s why, no trade value! The Yankees don’t have the budget for him unless Judge walks.
    It’s doubtful CT3 is traded one year into a 4 year deal.

    That’s a good looking lineup though and the bullpen has a good mix of vets and guys with options next year.
    Treinen has a year left
    Martin is Arb 3 next year and has an option remaining
    Phillips is pre-arb no options
    Vesia is Pre-Arb and has options
    Ferguson is Arb 3 and has options
    Bickford is Pre-Arb and has an option if he doesn’t get DFA’d this season
    Hudson has a club option
    Duffy has a club option (May be a starter)
    V-Gone is pre arb and has options
    Brusdar is Arb 1 and has options
    Nelson has a club option
    Almonte is pre arb, but no options

    Rotation is pretty set
    Gonsolin, May and Urias all come back
    Bauer?
    Kershaw?
    Duffy?
    Pepiot, Miller, Stone.

  4. It sure seems like if they were going to call up Stone or Miller, they would have done so already. It’s the 6th of September afterall.

    1. That’s what got me to thinking. They have six new players to protect, and Stoen and/or Miller take up a spot. Yes, they could help, but how much more than the ones coming back? AF has to manage the roster now and in the future. Stone and Miller will both likely be on the roster at some time next season, but AF needs as many roster spots as possible THIS WINTER.

      1. The woes of having too much talent in the system. It’s pretty obvious why they traded White, Beeter and Z-Mack.

        They might have to make some room for Jason Martin next year, the next JT or Max Muncy!

        It sure looks like Bruihl is trying to get DFA’d.

      2. Here’s the list of guys that are expected to be activated some time in Sept…

        Almonte R – Latest – Threw a bullpen this weekend and is scheduled for another.
        Duffy – L – OKC Rehab, last pitched on Saturday, 5 rehab appearances so far, 2 at OKC.
        Gonsolin – R – Began Throwing, rehab assignment not necessary
        V-Gone – L – OKC Rehab, last pitched on Friday. 6 rehab appearances so far.
        Price – L – Expected short stint on IL, rehab assignment not necessary
        Graterol – R – Began throwing and came back pain free. Should throw off a mound soon, rehab assignment not necessary
        Kahnle – R – OKC Rehab, last pitched on Saturday. 4 rehab appearances so far.

        Duffy, V-Gone and Kahnle are on the 60 day IL and will need a corresponding DFA when activated.

    2. There’s sub 5% chances either come up IMHO.

      Equally low chance CTaylor isnt back. Come on!

      I’d def expect Bauer to be reinstated, but cant see anyone taking him on.

  5. Clayton is just 8 wins shy of 200, that alone might be reason enough to come back for one more season.

    He’s 236 K’s from 3000. Might be reason enough to stick around for 2 more years. Especially since he’ll be very close to 200 K’s shy of 3000 after the season is over.

    His career ERA is 2.49 and climbing slightly over the last couple of seasons. Although, he has a chance to lower it this season if he pitches effectively over the last few starts.

    His career WHIP is just a tick over 1. There might be motivation to lower it.

    He’s 34 years old this year. I don’t think it’s out of the question to keep going through his age 36 season.

    As long as he still wants to pitch, the Dodgers will still keep giving him 15-20M to do so. Each year he continues is a lifetime of earnings for each of his offspring.

    He’s already make enough money to setup his kids for life. He’s working on his grandkids now.

  6. Not all people age in the same way. Some bodies are more flexible than others. Do you hear the Evan Longoria comments last night? Kersh does a lot, yes and it is really a lot of pregame stretching. Have recurring back and hip problems. He is an old 34 years old. Does he is great? Of course as SandyK was.

    Talking about Dodgers fans short memory, I never thought hearing the Name Bauer said in wearing Dodger Blue again ever in this millennium!

    1. Well, he’s still got another year under contract and he’s already served the longest suspension ever. We still need a pitcher and we’re already paying him. I guess AF has a choice.

      Pay him to play somewhere else and have another hole to fill, or bring him back to try to get a little more value out of his contract.

      1. I certainly would not cut Bauer loose so he can pitch for the Giants, Astros, Yankees, or Padres for free. I think any one of those teams would take him on.

      2. He’s a good pitcher. Is he a pariah in clubhouse? Hard to tell. Watching his channel I saw a egomaniac, rich af sgl guy in LA for his biggest gig. It (fame) blew him up. He seemed ‘ok’ among teammates but there’s some wackiness in his makeup.

        Dodgers got screwed by Manfred. Bauer poking the ‘sticky substance’ bear led to two year ban. B.S.

        I miss the guys videos. Saw more about the team personalities than anything out there.

        He’s a kook but Big Bank drives hard bargains.

      3. Do the Dodgers really need him? In spite of Buehler going down, and Kershaw going down and Gonsolin going down, I haven’t heard people clamor for Bauer. That drama has pretty much gone away for now, and I’m pretty confident the Dodgers prefer it that way.

        The Dodgers are loaded with pitching, now and next year, and Bauer coming back just complicates things. Manfred actually did the Dodgers a favor by suspending him for the duration of his contract, effectively nullifying it, and no, the Dodgers aren’t paying him if he’s suspended.

        The money saved by not paying Bauer gives the Dodgers more financial flexibility to potentially sign TT and still get under the threshold where they give up spots in the draft order

        If Bauer’s suspension is reduced, and that is a possibility, I think the Dodgers just try to make him go away quietly, and not many teams would be willing to pick him up … except Preller. I could see him doing something like that.

        Even if he returns to baseball, how good would he be? He’s well into his 30s and hasn’t pitched, and, although he wasn’t terrible after the Spidertack ban, his spin rates and overall effectiveness did decline in the month or so before he was suspended.

  7. Strictly an emotional comment, just the eyeball test and dollars and cents (sense)……..Bellinger will not be tendered this offseason. In the slim chance he stays and negotiates a one-year contract perhaps something along the line of what Enrique just got from the Red Sox. $10 million for the 2023 season to rebuild his worth before he goes into FA.

    Watching Mookie, FF, TT and how they load for a swing and I then wonder why Cody can’t learn from them. His straight-up stance with level bat doesn’t play well anymore. The book is well established on him and he has made zero adjustments sans the post season last year. No chance in hell he gets $17 million for one-year from AF.

    1. My opinion is that Cody Bellinger is not too smart and stubborn for his present upright batting stance and non load position with a flat bat cocked behind his head and long swing that evidently is not working. He is batting ,200 with an OPS of .645 as of today. He is late on all hard throwers and most of the time looks lost at the plate. He probably continues to work hard at this non productive situation but until someone can get it across to him ,it’s not working then we have to watch a former MVP deteriorate further. With all the money that is available in baseball, you think he would want a much needed change.

  8. Mark, sorry for the loss of your friend. Thank you for moving on from Bellinger. He’s “ fixed” at where he’s at. If anyone else would step up and begin to hit, Taylor, Gallo, Vargas, then I’d put them in left and Thompson in center and drop Bellinger. If not then we’re stuck with Bellinger and playoff heartbreak at the plate!

  9. There is something special about this team and these guys. Even if we win it I think Kersh and JT will want to come back. They’re both still performing at a high level if healthy. JT has had a monster 2nd half and the old man still has some pop in his bat evidenced by that shot off Degrom the other night. I don’t see Heaney or Alberto back. Pepiot will get his shot next year (and I say it will be a successful one) and I’d rather have Busch or Rios as my bench piece. Gone be a wild off season and will be interesting to see what AF does.

  10. Sign Trea to the same deal Mookie signed??? I assume you are referring to annual salary and not length of contract because there is no way at 29 years old he gets a 12 year deal….or even 10 for that matter. He’s a nice player but he’s not Mookie Betts.

    1. Mookie signed at age 27. Trea is 29, so it has to be a deal less than the 12-year deal Mookie signed.

      10 years is about right, and it will need to be $300 to $350 Million.

      AF is not going to lose Trea on $10 to $20 million like DePo let Beltre walk for $4 million and $65 million dollar deal.

      If Trea wants to be a Dodger, he will be a Dodger!

  11. Not that anyone cares news:
    09/05/22 Los Angeles Dodgers released SS Eddy Alvarez.

  12. So looking at the roster I don’t think there are going to be any surprise players making the playoff roster. Here are my predictions, with only one spot that I somewhat cannot predict. Also some comments about some players.

    The pitchers: I think I see 12 pitchers that are definitely going to make the playoff roster if healthy:
    Kershaw
    Urias
    Anderson
    May
    Gonsolin (Currently on the IL)
    Treinen
    Phillips
    Ferguson
    Vesia
    Martin
    Almonte (Currently on the IL)
    Graterol (Currently on the IL)

    I’m currently not comfortable with Martin, but I’m getting there. Also not comfortable with Graterol (Bad career stats against LHB, better this year, but still not good). I’m also currently not comfortable with the rest of the pitchers below, for various reasons.

    In the running for the last spot, and to fill any of the 3 current injured spots if needed are:
    Kimbrel
    Heaney
    Bickford
    Price (Currently on the IL)
    Kahnle
    Gonzalez
    Duffy

    Almost impossible any minor league pitching prospects make the playoff roster.

    The offense: I think I see all 13 position players that are definitely going to make the playoff roster if healthy:
    Thompson
    Betts
    Freeman
    T. Turner
    Smith
    Lux
    J. Turner
    Taylor
    Muncy
    Bellinger
    Gallo
    Alberto
    Barnes

    I don’t care for Alberto and never have since the Dodgers signed him, but 1 bench player can’t ruin a team.

    I think Friedman traded for Gallo at least for spots that come up in the playoffs where the Dodgers need an emergency home run when someone like Lux’s spot (Who doesn’t have much power) comes up (and of course to try to catch lightning in a bottle). If Gallo is used like that in the playoffs I have no problem with him.

    I don’t think any minor league position players make the playoff roster unless someone on my list is injured and not available for the playoffs.

    Just my guess of the playoff roster.

    1. If Alberto isn’t on the team – they are not the same team. Every Dodger will tell you that!

  13. Very interesting interview with Joe Maddon. We’ve all discussed for years how the dynamic between coaches and upper management has changed.

    What is great about this interview is that it opens up a discussion from the managers side which hasn’t really taken place publicly. In large part because current managers aren’t going to bite the hand that feeds and potential managers aren’t going to risk future employment by kicking this hornets nest. But it’s a discussion that needs to happen.

    We have no clue the exact dynamic between Roberts and AF and his brain trust. Maddon worked under AF in Tampa and Theo Epstein in Chicago. Both pioneers in advanced stats. And he had good things to say about the dynamic he had with both. Maddon makes it clear he isn’t against advanced stats but how they are implemented in the clubhouse and dugout. He obviously had issues with how the Angels expected their coaching staff to implement their analytic strategy. For fans, the whole thing is a black hole. Did the manager make a boneheaded move or was he instructed to do so by the 25 year old PHD from MIT before the game? We have no way of knowing.

    Maddon does make a few things clear, from his perspective. Defensive analytics are solid. He says he can’t argue with where they position players verses batters. Because the sample size is so large for most players playing in MLB. But he has an issue with the lack of understanding of the human side. The individual and the “art” of playing the game. Analytics can’t tell how a player is “feeling” at any given moment. And having pitched in HS I can attest to the fact that how your pitches “feel” are a huge deal. Some days one pitch just don’t feel right, so you don’t use it the same way that day. No amount of analytics can help with that.

    I will say that I don’t 100% buy Maddon’s narrative. Not entirely. This interview, in my opinion, is likely his first move to try to get back into managing. Make it clear that he isn’t some dinosaur who neither understand or appreciates analytics. Because those managers (like Scioscia) are not employable. So I think he’s trying to position himself as “not one of those guys”. That said, he makes some great points. I’ve always said todays game is a lot like poker. Yes, you have to know odds. You have to understand chip management and pot odds. But you also have to understand your playing against humans. Nobody who’s made a fortune as a pro poker player has ever done so on the back of the math alone. It doesn’t work. Not at a high level. There has to be a balance and a big part of that balance is making judgments on intangibles.

    I’m curious everybody’s thoughts on this.

    https://youtu.be/skgdKOoqoag

    1. This is a great post.

      I think, overall, the implementation of data analysis into the game has been a net benefit, and Moneyball was a needed disruption to the somewhat sclerotic and traditional baseball ways of doing things where the eyeball test mattered most. I often think, though, that the pendulum has swung too far in favor of a game where nerds think they can engineer the outcome. There’s a certain hubris that I think exists, and, in spite of a certain pride in parsing meaning from data, the human subjective capacity for insight is extremely powerful and has been honed and hardwired into our brains for thousands of years. Malcolm Gladwell wrote a very insightful book on this subject.

      I think the overlooked and underappreciated flaw in a data-centric way of looking at the game is its absolute dependence on exclusively past events to predict future events. I almost laugh at the ZiPS projections on Fangraphs. They have very little predictive value and are really just a summary of the past year’s performance.

      The one constant in life is change – and player performance is changing constantly; every moment. Players get a year older, they get injured, they heal. One day they might “feel” or “see” the ball better than a day where they might be slumping – and this is all governed by a confluence of physical, environmental and psychological factors we still don’t really understand.

      A great example of your point is the Rich Hill shutout in the 2018 WS. Going by The Plan, Roberts did the right think to pull Hill before he faced the Red Sox lineup a 3rd time. The accumulated data told him that, statistically, Hill was at disadvantage against a lineup that had already seen his stuff a couple of times. What the accumulated data didn’t say was whether Hill was having a night where he was particularly “feeling” the ball better than normal. Perhaps his curveball had more bite than normal, and he was able to place it where he wanted. Maybe his better-than-normal command gave him some sequencing confidence and advantages that might have mitigated the hard No-Third-Time-Through-Order Rule.

      A manager less beholden to a pre-determined game plan might have used his eyes and experience to realize Hill was not just performing based on an average of all of his prior past performances, but was pitching much better than normal, and that leaving him in would have tipped the odds in the Dodgers favor.

      I brought up Billy Martin recently to contrast his style with Roberts. Not too long ago I watched a documentary on Martin, and the takeaway I got from it was his genius for noticing the small things – the nuances within the interstices of the game – and an ability that came from years and years of watching and paying attention to the point where he had an additional and intuitive sense for the game, and he used this to his advantage all the time.

      Billy would have wadded up a data sheet and throw it in the trash, but Billy’s approach shouldn’t be forgotten either.

      1. Fixed this paragraph for you:

        A manager less beholden to a pre-determined game plan might have used his eyes and experience to realize Hill was not just performing based on an average of all of his prior past performances, but was pitching much better than normal, and that leaving him in could maybe have tipped the odds in the Dodgers favor.

        1. Great catch! Thanks! It’s perfect now! Gosh! I’m mortified that the readership here may have gotten the wrong impression from my inexcusable lack of clarity.

          And second thought, Roberts lost that Word Series, too. If not for Roberts, the Dodgers would’ve won in 2017, 18, 19, and 21. He needs to be fired.

  14. 10:10 PM ET

    Giants (65-68)
    Dodgers (92-42)

    SP John Brebbia R
    6-1 3.04 ERA 56.1IP 15BB 47K
    SP Tyler Anderson L
    13-3 2.68 ERA 147.2IP 30BB 114K

    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    SS Trea Turner R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    3B Max Muncy L
    DH J. Turner R
    LF Joey Gallo L
    2B Chris Taylor R
    CF C. Bellinger L

    Clear-night
    1% Rain
    85° Wind 5 mph Out

    David Vassegh
    @THEREAL_DV
    BREAKING: Julio Urías has accepted an invitation to pitch for #TeamMexico in next year’s
    @WBCBaseball

  15. In a non-baseball note, I’m sorry to hear about your friend, Mark. Fentanyl is the epidemic we don’t really hear about, but deaths have doubled in just a few years.

    1. There is still a soft place in my heart for Puig. Always will be. He was so fun to watch. “Wild Horse”.

      1. Me too.
        In those first few months we were asking, “Puig or Trout?” And Puig, with that arm, arguably had more ability.
        A five-tool talent who sadly lacked the sixth: the self-control and dedication to be a champion.
        But he was fun.

  18. Opioids are the scourge of our time. And let’s not forget how the biggest drug dealers, ultimately, were folks like the Sackler family, who paid $6 BILLION to settle the Purdue Pharma litigation.
    As for the Dodgers, a very interesting post. My two cents:
    –I think Cody’s fate may be determined in the next few weeks and the playoffs. If he’s a hero or zero, the decision is easy. But it will probably be something in between. (And I still think he has trade value, though the Dodgers may have to share the cost.) And if Gallo plays the hero, he could stay–in part because it would burnish AF’s reputation for resurrecting careers.
    –I was hoping for Justin to perhaps age gracefully into retirement, making room for Vargas, but he’s been playing so well lately I think he’ll want one more hurrah, perhaps as the primary DH.
    –Kershaw probably retires, especially if the Dodgers win the WS. It just seems like he wants to move on.
    –Is Jonny DeLuca that good? I hope so.
    –Bickford is out, Ferguson is very much in.
    –Dodgers bring back Anderson, and maybe let Heaney move on. It’s not just the HRs but he seems fragile. Still, AF likes to stockpile arms, so maybe not.
    –I do expect Trea to stay. He’ll get paid.
    –Once Trea is signed, does AF entertain bids for Lux? Probably not. But Muncy, Busch and Vargas can all play 2B–and Mookie too! Lux would play SS and bat leadoff for a lot of teams. He’d be a big chip in a big deal.
    There will be several interesting FAs on the market. What will AF be shopping for?

    1. –Kershaw probably retires, especially if the Dodgers win the WS. It just seems like he wants to move on.

  20. Chris Taylor’s past 50 games: three homers, 77 strikeouts

    Who will be the first to suggest DFA’ing him?

    1. Probably the same ones that said to DFA JT and Muncy. He’s not going anywhere. Now Bellinger on the other hand! How in the world does anyone here know what Kersh is thinking for next year! He looks to me that he’s having a ton of fun and he’s still pitching at a high level.

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