With the playoffs a full month and a half away (48 games), it’s a bit of a reach to try to predict what a potential playoff bullpen will look like. We’ll know a lot more once we’re closer to the finish line, but from the looks of things, September will be a tryout for October. Even more so with pitchers than position players. To make matters worse, or better, depending on how you look at it, there are currently 11 pitchers on the IL., eight on the 60-day, and three on the 15-day. And just to add another wrinkle into the equation, the Dodgers don’t seem to be very forthcoming as it relates to injuries or as to the status of rehabs for injured players. So, all we can do is make a few assumptions and go from there while remembering that September will be a tryout.
One more caveat. Just because a player isn’t on the post-season roster for the first series doesn’t mean they won’t be on the roster for another series. With so many deserving players on this team, I wouldn’t put it past “The Gang” that makes those decisions to mix and match players specifically to their opponent.
The IL Crew
Let’s start with the walking wounded and try to see which ones will really come back this year. The obvious ones are the three pitchers that are on the 15-Day IL; Kershaw, Almonte, and Graterol. Add in the two that are on rehab assignments, Treinen and May, and we have five pitchers returning, and 2 of them need 40-man roster spots. I had Walker Buehler in this mix as well until it was announced that he’d have another elbow surgery and will be out for the remainder of the season.
I’m going to assume the remaining five pitchers that are on the 60-Day won’t be back this season simply because there isn’t enough room for them. That list includes; Danny Duffy, Victor Gonzales, Tommy Kahnle, and Jimmy Nelson. That’s a lot of big names that won’t be coming back unless there’s an injury, of course.
What We Have Today
Right now, the active roster has a total of 13 pitchers, which will probably expand to 15 in just 15 days or so with the September roster expansion. This is also when the 13 pitcher rule disappears and allows clubs to carry 15 pitchers on the roster if they so choose. It looks to me that the Dodgers are pretty much set on the position player side of the house, so my next assumption is that they’ll use those two extra roster spots to carry 15 pitchers to help ease the burden on the guys that have done the heaviest lifting this season. Namely, Anderson, Gonsolin, and Urias. I can see a six-man rotation for September and a 9 man bullpen serving as a tryout for the first post-season series.
The rotation currently consists of Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Heaney, and Pepiot.
The bullpen is Kimbrel, Phillips, Bickford, Moronta, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Price from the left side.
Now, It gets Fun!
In the next couple of weeks, we’ll add Graterol and May back into the mix and possibly Almonte. All before rosters expand. This is easy enough to do. We’ll need to DFA one player and send two others to the minors on optional assignments. My guess is that Pepiot goes back down when May comes up, and Bickford and Moronta get optioned when Almonte and Graterol return. That just leaves the one DFA to account for. My guess is that Eddie Alvarez gets whacked at this time.
The updated rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Heaney, and May.
The updated bullpen; Kimbrel, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Price from the left side.
Wow, this already looks so much better and almost unhittable. Sure it’s odd to have your worst pitcher as your closer, but it sure looks like the Dodgers believe it’s better to have your best pitchers pitch in the highest leverage situations instead of saving them for the last inning. That’s a theme that the Dodgers are prone to innovate with and will continue using their best relievers in this fashion. Don’t get hung up on the closer role; it’s becoming more fluid. Kimbrel at least has plenty of experience pitching the ninth.
With this configuration, Martin and Price will be low leverage guys, and Graterol will be a guy they bring on to get out of an inning with runners on and perhaps take down the next inning depending on the game situation when he enters. Price will have a similar role when it makes sense to use a lefty in a lower leverage situation or when Graterol needs a breather. Almonte and Phillips from the right side and Ferguson and Vesia from the left side when the platoon situation dictates which hand a pitcher to pitch with to exploit a perceived platoon advantage. This already looks like an ideal bullpen.
September Staff
I believe the Dodgers will wait until September to active the next two pitchers; Clayton Kershaw and Blake Treinen. One DFA will need to happen in addition to a spot on the 28-man September roster. The DFA’s are anyone’s guess, but one thing to consider is that anyone that gets DFA’s now can’t play in the postseason for the acquiring team. Chris Martin, Reyes Moronta, and Phil Bickford all have at least one more option year remaining and at least one more year of control, as far as I can tell, so they won’t be locks to be DFA’d. I have no idea where the DFA goes from here. One of Moronta, Reed, Bickford, and Bruihl seems likely. I’ll say that my guess is Bruihl.
Now, the staff looks like this…
The September rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, Anderson, Kershaw, May, and Heaney.
The September bullpen; Kimbrel, Treinen, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, Price, and Heaney from the left side.
The Post-Season Pitching Staff
We’ve finally made it to the postseason. Now we are going to have to trim that 6-man September rotation down to 4 and the bullpen to 9 in order to get back the 13 pitchers for post-season play. This going to have a lot to do with September performances, so this is little more than a shot in the dark after a lot of analysis and assumptions are made. But, here goes.
In my mind, I want two lefties and two righties in the rotation. The Dodgers have the luxury to balance it out this way, and I think it would be beneficial, so your opponent has to adjust each night. I’m going to make another assumption here and say Post-Season experience and velocity play up in the postseason regardless of how good they performed during the season. In an ideal world, which we all know we don’t live in, our rotation will line up like this…
The Post Season Rotation; Gonsolin, Urias, May, Kershaw.
I fully expect all of you to freak out right about now. I’m leaving Anderson off the rotation. My reasoning is that as good as Anderson has been, he’s slightly worse than Gonsolin, Urias, and Kershaw. May is going to be in there as the only starter that sits near triple digits. Kershaw will be there because he’s Kershaw. Urias has a lot of post-season experience, and in the end, it’s probably more beneficial to have another righty to even things out rather than have three lefties in the rotation. No, there’s no reason to go with a 5 man rotation in the postseason.
The Post-Season bullpen; Kimbrel, Treinen, Phillips, Almonte, Graterol, Martin from the right side, and Ferguson, Vesia, and Heaney from the left side.
I suppose there’s a chance that Anderson ends up in the bullpen over Martin, but he seems redundant with Heaney as lefty long men.
Before Buehler went down yesterday, I had Buehler in the pen in front of Anderson and Martin. That was a much easier decision. Now that Buehler is out for the year, Anderson has a reasonably good chance at beating out Martin. But, at the same time, Chris Martin is no slouch and has pitched big post-season innings as recently as last season with the Braves.
A lot of what the roster looks like by playoff time depends upon pitcher health. Hopefully, no one else goes down, but it can happen. That’s why depth is so important.
I hope I am wrong, but I think Craig Kimbrel has hit the end of the line. In 2018, in the ALDS, where pitched four innings. Kimbrel had a 11.57 ERA. The Red Sox gave him 2.1 innings.
In the ALCS, he pitched 4 innings with a 4.50 ERA, and in the World Series he also pitched 4 innings with a 4.15 ERA.
Last year in the ALDS he had a 9.00 ERA.
Over 8 seasons and 10 playoff series Kimbrel has a 4.13 ERA.
His ERA last season with the White Sox, the second half of the season, was 5.09. This year it is 4.39.
There is a distinct pattern here, and it ain’t good. Unless Kimbrel totally turns it around, Friedman will DFA him right after the first of September, if not before.
I have seen this movie too many times. Kimbrel is not a part of the Dodgers bullpen anymore. I would DFA him now – I don’t care if someone else picks him up. Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone moved to OKC yesterday. Give them a couple of starts and if they hold their own, try them in LA. That’s what I would do. Both throw near 100 MPH and have devastatingly filthy stuff. That plays up anywhere!
Excellent analysis but I just cannot foresee a post season roster without Anderson on it. His change-up can prove big in a close game with men on base and the Dodgers in need of a double play. I also think he can be used to piggy-back a Gonsolin or Kershaw start. I agree with Mark and can see a roster that does not include Kimbrel.
Chris Martin throws strikes and can be used in get a needed strike out in a high-leverage situation. If Treinen and Graterol are healthy and pitch like they did before injuries, Kimbrel will not sniff the post season roster.
If it boils down to Anderson or Martin, they will keep Anderson.
Great analysis. It makes for interesting discussion. I guess you can update once a week as players come and go. And I think we all agree that Kimbrel should be left off the postseason.
Tough news on WB. I am still wondering why they did not examine or find the problem when he has his elbow surgery a few weeks back. I am not an expert but I would think you know whats wrong when you opened up the elbow back then.
Sounds a little strange.
I was hoping to have him back for postseason play, at least as a stopper in the pen .
Well, next man up.
If Kimbrel does not get his act together in the next few weeks I do not see him on our postseason roster. You just can not trust the guy to get key outs.
What about Gavin Lux ? Going deep oppo vs a side arming LHP. Wow. Just leave him in the lineup vs LHP. He is doing just fine.
Would love to see Bobby Miller starting a couple of games in September , even if it is only to rest some other arms down the stretch.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
They never “opened his elbow up”. It was arthroscopic surgery.
They said that the MRI was inconclusive, so they would try and rehab him before cutting…
I think they knew this possibility always existed but you have to try.
With an arthrospoic procedure you can see the entire joint/elbow.
At least that is what they told me when they scoped my knee for a meniscus tear and possibly an ACL.
If they find something bigger they can do it immediately if you gave them your okay in advance.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Either way he was out for the year.
ram – “If Kimbrel does not get his act together in the next few weeks……”
Kimbrel is not going to show me anything in the next few weeks that would change my mind. He’s had the whole season to prove himself and he’s horseshit. I don’t need his drama in the playoffs. I hit the eject button now before we demote either Martin or Anderson.
We bagged on Kenley to no end. Kimbrel? Cricketts.
Nice career CK.
Committe bullpen FTW.
You must be new here. Kimbrel gets bagged on daily. Yes, we seem to already have a committee bullpen. Price pitched the ninth with a 4-run lead last night, that’s usually Kimbrell’s duty.
At some point the Dodgers better start getting guys used to pitching in back to back games.
Jansen took the heat for years. By comparison CK’s had it easy. He’s so bad even the casual fans know what’s going on. Kimbrel is a non-story. That’s better than what Kenley went thru IMHO.
What?
Please, don’t use CK for Craig Kimbrel. CK is already reserved!
I never bagged on Jansen. He earned his bones long before and sometimes ships will sail on yesterday’s wind. For me anyways.
Taking a look at the Postseason Schedule there is no travel day between game 5 and game 6 of the NLCS. So should it be a series of Mets Vs Dodgers I think that benefits LA as we all know Max cant go on 3 days rest…..and the entire schedule will be condensed more reminiscent of 2020….
Wow, really? No travel day between NY and LA. That’s gonna really suck. I wonder if that will change when they come to their senses.
I dont think they can change it based on the season being pushed back so much. Depth could play a major role just like in 2020.
Things change pretty quick. I had to spend time editing this post once it was announced that Walker would be gone for the year. Dirty trick by the Dodgers letting us think that Walker had a chance to come back. It must be really frustrating to get cut on, do rehab, only to find that you have to do it all over again.
Even with the bad news announced right before the game, a not very sharp Julio and the gang shut out a Brewers team that’s vying for a Wild Card spot. Chris Martin, who might not make the postseason bullpen according to some, struck out 4 guys in one inning. Then David Price, who everyone wanted to cut a couple of weeks ago, closes out the ninth on 9 pitches against their 4-5-6 hitters. In case nobody noticed, that’s 10 straight games that Price failed to give up a run.
I know it seems ridiculous that Anderson might not make the post-season staff, but every option is very good. He’s not going to make the rotation. Heaney isn’t either. How many lefties will they go with in the pen? You all realize that David Price’s era is lower than Anderson’s and his K rate is better, right? Sure, Chris Martin is easy to look at and say Anderson is better, but Chris Martin has post-season experience coming off last year’s World Series with the Braves. There are going to be tough decisions coming.
I think it’s great that Miller and Stone got promoted. Might as well get that depth in more meaningful innings. They’re both top 100 prospects and now it’s time to deliver and get ready for some MLB action. Both would already be in the majors for other teams. However, I don’t think there’s much of a chance for either of them to get the call this season without additional injuries. As it is, Pepiot is on the roster and might get squeezed off once May and Kershaw come back. But, you never know.
It’s gonna be weird for Pepiot to make a start without having to take a plane flight from OCK tonight. Hopefully, he’ll have better control after being more comfortable by staying with the team for over a week for once.
Gavin Lux is an absolute stud. His power is starting to show up and he’s just about ready to turn into Corey Seager with wheels. As much as I love Trea Turner, I wouldn’t be disappointed to see Busch and Lux up the middle for our team.
Tatis Sr on the campaign trail. Baseball could’ve ‘handled this better.’??
So he’s claiming that steroid has no crank? Is he trippin’? What am I missing here?
He is a dad trying to put the blame on MLB instead of his son’s stupidity.
Yeah, his son’s reputation is the thing at stake here. Not MLB’s reputation.
So many weird comments about this. What I find is weird is that MLB wanted to make this guy the face of baseball? This is the guy that got lambasted for swinging 3-0 in a blowout.
This is the guy that does a jig while rounding 3rd base.
This is the guy that wears that stupid chain and clock around his neck to celebrate a home run.
This is the guy that that signed a huge contract and broke his wrist on a motorcycle accident and when asked about it, he responded with “Which One?”.
This is the guy that now has a failed steroid test, for clostebol. The same steroid that Dee Gordan got busted using during the best season of his career.
Are you sure about that 15 pitcher number limit for September? I thought I read somewhere that they were limiting it to 14.
Your reasoning about Anderson not making the post season roster makes some sense but if he continues like he has so far he’s going to be on the roster. Do a May/ Anderson tandem and save the rest of the bullpen for the other games.
I’m not 100% sure. I had a very hard time finding info on that. Please post a link if you have it.
Found this on MLB.com:
“A club’s 26-man roster is its full roster of active Major League players from Opening Day through Aug. 31, and during the postseason.
Teams are limited to carrying 13 pitchers during this time. From Sept. 1 through the end of the regular season, all clubs must carry 28 players, with a limit of 14 pitchers.”
Thanks for the clarification. One less spot for a September pitcher. Gonna get even more interesting.
BP –
Thanks for the excellent article. The one question I have is: why would you keep Heaney as a lefty in the post season bullpen over Anderson?
Unless he blows out his arm, Anderson is going to be on the playoff roster. Maybe not in the first series, but for sure when it is a seven-game series. The guy lost a game when the offense was totally stifled. He is one of the main reasons they are where they are. And his repertoire plays well against all types of hitters. Making the roster is a reward for what a player has done. With what he has accomplished so far, he merits a spot.
Because his ERA is over a run and a half less and his K rate of 12.2/9 is almost double Anderson’s 7.1/9.
I think the higher velocity plays better in the postseason and his slider is just as nasty as Anderson’s change-up.
We’re talking about the bullpen here. If I needed a starter, it would be Anderson. But on the season so far, Anderson is just a little worse than Urias, Kershaw and Gonsolin. I think May gets the edge over Anderson because he evens out the rotation with another righty and doesn’t like to pitch out of the pen.
The Dodgers can do a really ballsy move and put Urias in the pen and put Anderson in the rotation. But, if it doesn’t work out, they’ll get killed in the press.
Tough decisions. There’s only very good choices. That’s the point of the article.
Good discussions and questions. I’m not going to die on this hill. It’s an educated guess and there’s a lot of season remaining where these things tend to fix themselves. Like I said, I had to edit this article after the Walker Buehler news yesterday. 😉
At this point, only the Dodgers have any idea what the plan is going forward. Since it looks like they will be getting a bye in the first round, they are in a position to set up their staff anyway they feel is best for a post season run. They will use a four-man rotation in the playoffs. Gonsolin, Urias and May are almost locks for that, some are assuming that Kersh will be healthy and back ready to pitch. But the back is a funny thing. He might feel great one day and be on the rack the next. Hopefully they do not have to use the opener they were forced to use because of tired arms last year. For that reason alone, Anderson is going to be on the post season roster no matter what. It is fun to guess at who is going to be where come playoff time. My guess is by the time the season ends, and we have seen how guys finish, and not how they are now, we will have a much better idea of the plan moving forward. If Kimbrel does not find it over these last games, he probably won’t be on the playoff roster. In that case, if he is healthy, I would think Treinen, and Phillips could easily handle the role. A lot depends on how well Treinen is when he returns. I never expect a player to be nails immediately when they come off of the IL.
Unless they are injured, these Pitchers are Locks for the playoffs:
May
Urias
Gonsolin
Kershaw
Heaney
Anderson
Almonte
Phillips
Ferguson
Treinen
Graterol
Price
Vesia
That’s 13!
Martin, Duffy, and Pepiot are in the mix, but barring injury, they won’t make it.
Hard to see them leaving Martin off the post season roster, if he keeps going the way he has so far. Plus, he has post season experience. Of course, there’s still a month and a half left for his performance to go south or for one of the other guys to get injured.
Heaney and Anderson could be used at any juncture of the game and pitch multi-innings.
So can Phillips.
This is a good systematic breakdown on the roster possibilities, and with the need for only a four man rotation, I see your point that Heaney and Anderson are basically the same guy, but Anderson gives a different look. You mentioned May being a starter simply because his heater sticks out among the other starters. I think Anderson’s off speed and his ability to command it so well contrasts also with the hard throwers on the team. I think it was Mark who mentioned a tandem of May and Anderson – maybe each going three or four innings. Anderson’s a good hedge for May wilting under playoff pressure, too.
That means someone else gets left off. That’s either Martin or Kimbrel. Kimbrel won’t be left off. I partially agree that a part of his troubles have been back luck and squibbers, but there’s also the expression, “you make your own luck.” Chris Martin doesn’t walk people. Kimbrel walks people and wild pitches them over. I’d rather not see him on the playoff roster.
* Kind of a weird game. Urias was effective (giving up only 4 hits and 2 walks) but inefficient. Same with Martin. Between he and Urias it took 117 pitches to get through 6 innings. The back end was great. On the night there seemed to be an unusual amount of foul balls and long AB’s. The Dodgers had 151 pitches and the Brewers 176. That’s 327 pitches for a 9 inning game yet only 5 walks and 10 hits.
Weird.
JT showed some nice glove work at 3rd and showed off some great feet and picks at 1st….by Freddie Freeman on the other end. He should never have to pay for a cocktail.
* The Brewers equivalent of our Kristen Watson is a woman named Sophia Minnaert. She’s great. Take a listen if you can get their broadcast. She does insightful narratives on real baseball stuff and knows what she’s talking about.
* Any combo in Doc’s line ups that have Muncy, Belling and Gallo and/or CT3 together, makes me nervous. Muncy is striking out at a 31% rate, Belli 30%, CT3 40% and Gallo at 46%. That’s too much No Contact for me.
* Urias was again frustrated with the home plate umpire. That’s happening way too much with him. Fact is Chad Fairchild was very consistent. All night he missed 6 strikes called balls and 6 balls called strikes. All were borderline. And he will not give the low pitch barely out of the zone. Urias needs to stop umpiring and pitch better.
* A chance to see Pepiot again tonight. Looking forward to it.
You can’t have it both ways. Unlike us, Urias doesn’t have a box superimposed to see where the strike is. We get it and we still complain about the umpires. You’re one of the biggest proponents of the ABS, but you’re telling Urias to pitch and not ump. Seems like a contrary position.
I agree about all those K machines. I don’t we’ll see all 4 in the game together, but you need to get used to seeing 3 of 4.
So, what’s the ideal lineup / batting order?
RF Mookie R
SS Trea R
1B Freddie L
C Smith R
DH Muncy L
3B JT R
2B Lux L
LF Gallo/Trace platoon
CF Belli/CT3 platoon
Am I missing anyone? That’s a lot of K’s in those last two spots.
I am and will continue to be a proponent of ABS. But until then, the strike zone is what the ump says it is. In the early innings there should be little complaining about what’s a strike that day, unless it is an obvious miss. That’s the time for a pitcher to adjust to the umpire’s zone and not become visible upset by it. Just pitch and hope that early zone remains the same all day.
I don’t see Belli platooning with CT3 in center.
Regarding Belli, maybe, maybe not. They’ve done it in the past. I would rather eat the offense and just go with Belli’s glove.
Me too.
Today’s starting lineup:
Belli sits. CT3 in center. I imagine they’re doing this to get Taylor some reps in center, just in case.
Taylor’s AB’s really bother me. Cody at least sometimes hits balls really hard that go foul before he is fooled. I wonder what Chris’s swing and miss rate is. He sure seems to miss on pitches right down the pipe. So far this season, he has not been the Swiss Army knife we saw before. I also think his broken foot put him behind the 8 ball. He has really been struggling since he came off of the IL.
Bear, CT3 has a 40% strike out rate this season. His career average for 162 games is 32%. For the things you mentioned, I don’t see him as an everyday guy or a platoon guy in center. He gets his PT for resting others or as a pinch hitter versus certain pitchers.
Right now I’d take Thompson all day long in left. The situation in left is interesting. I like Trayce a lot there but his K rate is 37% as well. But he is hitting .291 overall versus Gallo’s .167.
Thompson has huge splits which confuses a typical lefty-righty platoon with Gallo.
Trayce is hitting .323 vs RHP to Gallo’s .187
Trayce is hitting .192 vs LHP vs Gallo’s .102.
Both a fine defenders with Gallo maybe a slight edge.
So maybe Trayce needs to be the everyday guy unless he goes into a tail spin and Gallo is a pinch hitter and bench piece.
I would do it the same Phil. I don’t like platoons in general. But, this is Doc and the Dodgers we’re talking about and sadly, they’re even platooning Lux these days.
CT3 struggled before he went on the IL. He has to many S/O’s. Tracye Thompson is getting a bad deal. Tracye had a single. double and HR and has not started a game since. THINK ABOUT IT.
So, just prepare to be nervous because there is 0 chance we do not have 3 of those 4 in the lineup.
Why are only 4 starters needed? I understand that a series is short, but why not use the usual 5? More rest and everyone plays
Most teams only use four and bolster the pen when playing a short series. It has been that way for years. When the Dodgers swept the Yanks in 63, they only used three. Same in 65 when they beat the Twins. Most times there is a travel day between games two and three, and between games five and six. This year will be different. I am not sure why, but it seems to be the norm. Rarely does a team carry five starters in the playoffs anymore unless one of them is going to be the long man.
I thought it was because in the fifth game you’re pitching your number one starter instead of your number five starter. With the days off it allows you to do that compared to the regular season
The fifth starter on a team is usually
the weakest if you have a chance to set your rotation before the playoffs
It gives your number one starter a chance to pitch more games if needed possibly on short rest
ESPN Kiley McDaniel has his new top 50 prospects out.
Cartaya, Vargas, Miller and Pages all made it. Cartaya was the hightes at Nr. 17. Vargas at 42,
Miller Nr. 44 and Pages Nr. 50.
He thinks there is a chance Miller will come out of the bullpen for the stretch run and postseason.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!
McDaniel was obviously not STONED! Gavin Stone ranks higher than Pages on everybody’s board… even Ray Charles sees that!
Mets Carrasco is set to have an MRI after experiencing side pain. Mets hopes are pinned on the health of two or more very fragile pitchers.
WTF is Doc saying here? Can someone please translate? Who is he talking about?
“I talked to Dustin today, and he’s not a savior. I just want him to come out and pitch well. He’s just got to do his job. When Clayton gets back, he’s got to do his job. So I don’t look at it as pressure. It’s just more of, we don’t have a guy that we’d hoped to be with us. He’s been a big part of things we’ve done, but there’s nothing we can do about it and guys have just got to do their jobs.”
Talking about losing Buehler and getting May and Kersh back.
Meh …. I guess he’s saying that May (or Kersh) don’t need to bear a heavier burden or put more pressure on themselves to carry the team because Buehler’s out. It’s not a bad approach, because I think a lot of us – and possibly May – are thinking that he has to assume Buehler’s role as the dominant right handed starter.
His communication skills are vastly over-rated.
Well, he acts like a typical press secretary, so I guess the ambiguity is an asset.
Reminds me of something I thought was funny a long time ago.
https://youtu.be/zE1eHQ4z5W4
So are yours.
For the record, we probably don’t miss Pollock, but I did not want Kimbrel, and all I am going to say is, “I told you so.”
He hasnt been great but he does have an 87% save % and only given up 2 HR.
By comparison Edwin Diaz is 90% and 4 HR’s. Jansen 87% with 5 HR’s
As a closer your job is to SAVE games, I really dont give a flip what his ERA is.
Now having said that, will he be closing games in October…..I dont know….
You have to look at a lot more than save % and HRs. Look at ERA, WHIP, BB, and Strikeout Rates
ERA: Kimbrel – 4.38; Diaz – 1.33; Jansen – 3.25
WHIP: Kimbrel – 1.488 ; Diaz – 0.86; Jansen – 1.038
K-Rate: Kimbrel – 12.1 per 9 IP ; Diaz – 17.9 per 9 IP; Jansen – 12.0 per 9 IP
BB-Rate – Kimbrel – 3.7 per 9 IP/; Diaz- 2.7 per 9 IP; Jansen – 2.6 per 9 IP
Kimbrel can’t even carry Diaz’ jock.
Jansen is better than Kimbrel.
End of story.
What is the closers job though? To Save games right? To me that’s all that matters.
Again, not saying he has been great, but in 87% of the time he has done his job……no matter how nerve wracking its been….
Lucky for us he doesn’t have to come in to try to save hardly any one run games.
Not end of story. What have you done for me lately.
In their last 15 games.
Kimbrel ERA 3.68 Team Record 14-1 Pitcher Record 2-0 SV 6 Hold 1
Jansen ERA 3.68 Team Recod 12-3 Pitcher Record 1-0 SV 9 BlSv 1
Arguing who’s better between two closers that give everyone heartburn is like arguing who’s worse, the Nats or the A’s. It’s completely pointless. They both suck!
Give me a closer that can shut the door, no questions asked. That’s neither Kenley or Kimbrell so why keep arguing about it?
Besides, the best closer in baseball is the Dodgers’ offense. Do you notice how rare it is that we’re even in a save situation?
The saves and blown saves stats are not good to use to evaluate pitchers on because there are other things involved that have influence on those stats.
1 example: It’s easier to get saves and avoid blown saves when you come into a lot of games with a 3 or 4 run lead as Kimbrel has this year. Someone else here used the save and blown save stats to make a case with me that Kimbrel is better than the Phillies closer David Robertson this year. But Robertson has been in tighter games than Kimbrel this year.
The stats that I use to evaluate pitchers on tells me, among those 3 closers, here is how I would rank them this year.
1 Diaz
2 Jansen
3 Kimbrel
Last year at the trade deadline Kimbrel was back to being dominate. I wanted the Dodgers to get Kimbrel at that time because I thought 2019 and 2020 were just bad years for Kimbrel after being dominate his first 9 years. But this year he has looked like the 2020 Kimbrel, just average/below average. The 2019 Kimbrel was horrible.
A. Kimbrel has been in less close games simply because the Dodgers have been outscoring their opponents by a bunch. B. Teams that do not score as much as the Dodgers do are definitely going to be involved in lower scoring games giving their closers more opportunities for saves. Jansen has had more chances to record saves than Kimbrel. You have to get Kimbrel innings, and lately the only opportunities for that has been in games where they have big leads.
Someone asked earlier why you would not use five starters in the playoffs?
I would counter with WHY IN THE HELL would you want to start your worst starter in the playoffs instead of starting your best starter twice? Between the first and 5th games, there are generally two rest days. If you are dumb enough to use your 5th starter in game #5, your opponent is not that dumb. Your Number 5 would be facing their Number 1?
Any more questions?
Already said that, a little more politely
But without a serving of sarcasm!
Touché
I am not surprised that Beli is not in the lineup tonight. After each at bat last night, he walked slowly back to the dugout and then was a bit slow getting to the field. His non-verbals to me said that he was not in a good place mentally. My observation is that Doc is giving him some time to “get his head in the right place”.
I thought he looked like he was in pain. I think he has an ouchie somewhere!
Yeah, there were some pretty bad swings taken. Worse than normal.
Yes,Belli had one swing that was the worst I think he may have ever had.Maybe the worst any mlb player has bad.
8:10 PM ET
Dodgers (80-34)
Brewers (61-53)
SP Ryan Pepiot R
1-0 3.92 ERA 20.2IP 23K 15BB
SP Brandon Woodruff R
9-3 3.52 ERA 92IP 109K 27BB
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
SS Trea Turner R
1B F. Freeman L
C Will Smith R
3B Max Muncy L
DH J. Turner R
2B Gavin Lux L
LF Joey Gallo L
CF Chris Taylor R
In Domed Stadium
Nick Frasso starts tonight for A+ Great Lakes
Why is that stadium Doomed? Oh, “domed?” Who knew?
THIS JUST IN:
Padres have cancelled the Fernando Tatis Jr bobblehead night sceduled for Sept 7th.
Someone please tell Jorge. I’m sure he was planning to attend.
I’ve suggested that they hand out free ringworm medication instead but have not heard back from Preller.
They are also passing out toothbrushes and suppositories for the ringworm meds.
Bootleg bobbles showing up @ TJ border crossing. Yo!
I heard they had to cancel it because they couldn’t fit the head into the package!
I’m thinking the bullpen works best when you give the ball to the pitcher at the beginning of an inning and let them pitch one inning.
Martin has proved he can put 0 on the scoreboard. Anderson has earned a spot on the roster.I say let’s see how Price responds to the closer roll. Heaney, as well as he has pitched, is not durable and has not earned that spot.
Trace Thompson has to be on the roster. If Gallo can start delivering the goods then you have to consider him.
It’s a great position to be in to have going into the playoffs!
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
Cody Bellinger’s not in there today, and won’t be in there tomorrow, Dave Roberts said. Getting a “reset” after a meeting in the manager’s office postgame last night.
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
Danny Duffy felt some discomfort when facing hitters in a recent live session, Dave Roberts said. “Pretty unlikely” he makes it back as an option this season.
Sounds like a head issue… not an injury. I think WIDodger was right!
With a 17 game lead in the division and a five game lead for the best record, I still say they stick with Kimbrel for a few more weeks to see if he can straighten things out. He has run into so lousy luck in a few outings. A lot of good points have been made about his track record since 2018. He definitely has regressed substantially in the last five years. In the end the Dodgers are in a good spot to run him out there and see if things improve. If they don’t, they cut bait and move on.
Regarding Jansen. I‘ve had no confidence in him for a number of years now. His inability to pitch without distraction with runners on base was his undoing. He is Atlanta’s problem now, but we saw how rattled he became when we beat him a few months ago.
I believe that Phillips or Ferguson could adequately fill the closer role. In the post season with the mounted pressure, you never know how they will handle it. There will come a time or two (or more) when they will be tested. The closer role is really the only genuine weak spot I see with the ball club.
The bench could be a problem. Barnes isn’t going anywhere, and if Gallo doesn’t improve , and Taylor continues his 40% strikeout rate, we’ve got a potential weak spot there as well .
I’ll give Gallo two more weeks. If he doesn’t cut it by then, you have to give somebody in the minors a try. I’d give Martin a shot
I’d like to see Vargas or Busch, but neither are outfielders
It just got weaker!
Bellinger would have caught that HR!
No doubt about it
Perhaps Gallo would have also. Taylor 6’1″ Gallo 6’5″.
Gallo is making his case! Still don’t know why Thompson’s bat isn’t in the lineup. And he might have made that catch as well
I still like Pepiot. He’s gonna be successful in the rotation next year. He has to be able to throw that slider for a strike. It will come!
Rylan Bannon claimed off waivers by the Braves. Former Dodger Jordan Sheffield outrighted to the minors by the Rockies.
Taylor accepts our apology! How valuable is CT3?!!!!!
Kimbrel simply has NO command of his fastball!
What do we really expect.We can use him in situations that don’t matter.But if the game is close if I was DR,I would not let Kimberly pitch.He would have to prove himself to me.I don’t know if there is enough games left.
What a waste of all our great bullpen work up to that point. Can’t say that I didn’t expect it though
Sigh, well, he was trying.
I’m not surprised how the game ended with Kimbrel pitching but if there is a good thing that happened it was that the brewers picked up a game on San Diego for a spot in the playoffs.
I love to read these post game comments after a loss. Let us look at the facts. Item 1. Kimbrel was the loser, we all agree on that. But, Renfroe, who is the kind of hitter who could end that game with one swing surprised everybody, including the announcers and most of the Milwaukee faithful by laying down his first ever bunt single. It was a thing of beauty. Surprised the Dodgers never try that. They might have 6 extra inning wins instead of 7 losses. Item 2. Kimbrel struck out the next hitter. That set up the possibility of a double play. Then Kimbrel made the mistake of walking the next hitter loading the bases. But it wasn’t like he was wild. His pitches were close. He still had a shot to get out of the inning. But Caratini hits a blooper that is in exactly the best spot it can be to win the game. And credit again goes to Renfroe who was running as soon as the ball left the bat and was right on the lead runners heels. Had Betts gotten to that ball before it dropped and made the catch, it would have been an easy double play. So a bunt a walk and a bloop beat him. It’s not like they crushed everything he threw up there. And you can bet a bag of tacos that no one feels worse about it than Kimbrel. Roberts said after the game that he was pleased with Kimbrel’s stuff. I do not see a change coming all that quickly. Kimbrel himself said he was frustrated and he knows it has to turn around and fast. He has vowed it will. So, we will see. The offense was not that great either. Lux 4 K’s Muncy 3. Don’t forget, they had runners at 2nd and 3rd with one out in the first inning and they did not score. They left 18 men on base.
In his four save attempts this season with a one-run lead, Kimbrel has failed to convert the save in each of them.
I would bring Kimbrel in with a 12-run lead.