It’s Never too Early (or Late) to Look at Next Year

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1. So it seems every time someone tests positive it just an ‘accident’. They took some medication for ingrown toenail and it turns out there is some banned substance in there and they didn’t know about it. I guess SD doesn’t have Doctors on staff to advise about medications. LOL.
   So Gallo and Codi–last homers hit to center or left. Is that ‘all’ it took to turn them around? Codi has also cut down on K’s, but still no walks. I guess until he shows that he can really hit, pitchers just throwing him strikes.

2. Not as sure as you about TT. He seems like he loves being a Dodger but is he an LA kind of guy? I’d love to know what AF is thinking about him and how far is he willing to go? Right now the best Dodger lineup has to have Trayce Thompson’s name in it!

   1. Every player says they ‘love’ the team they are on and want to come back. Who would say anything else in the middle of the season. That lasts until signing time.

      1. lol – Totally agree and same with the roids. I stubbed my toe so I had to shoot some testosterone in my ass? Good try!

         I’m wondering how mortal he’ll look when he finally comes back. No one gets caught the first time they do something. If you think this is the first time he’s done roids, I have a bridge in Nebraska I’d like to sell you cheap.

         There’s plenty of prep kids in the US that do roids trying to get a scholarship or punch their ticket in the draft. It’s way worse in the Dominican Republic where their handlers put that shit in their Wheaties every morning.

3. Good writeup on the possibilities of next year’s roster. I do have a couple of disagreements though.

   Trayce is definitely 100% coming back next year. He’s got 3 arbitration years and he’s not going to break the bank. Add in the fact that there’s no one banging on the door in left field. He’s at worst, a fourth outfielder right now and will be paid as such in his first arb year.

   The other disagreement is that there’s little chance Miller or Stone get a September callup. There’s just no room for that. First, they would have to clear space on the 40-man. Second, they still don’t have room as Kershaw and Treinen will be added to the roster in September. The only way Stone or Miller gets a look this September is if someone else gets injured and will be out of the season.

   You’re probably right about JT, but I still think there’s a good chance that the Dodgers deny the club option and resign him at a lower amount, but a fair amount. With all the winning, ticket sales, post-season ticket sales, etc. They’ve got the money to spend on payroll, will probably exceed the cap anyways, so you might as well blow past it until you decide to reset and dip back under.

   11 in a row now. Let’s keep this going! Tony G was magnificent last night while dealing a no-no into the 7th. Trayce’s 3 run blast was the last nail in the coffin. I feel like Mookie and Freeman cooled off, yet we still keep winning. Every night a different player is delivering the big blow and contributing to the team’s success.

   Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Treinen and Brusdar each pitched a scoreless inning in OCK. I can’t remember when a relief pitcher spent over two weeks on a minor league rehab assignment. Especially, one of Treinen’s stature. It seems to me that Treinen would be activated sooner, but the Dodgers don’t want to cut someone, only to have a competitor pick them up for the stretch run and postseason. The Dodgers are probably keeping Treinen down so that whoever they cut won’t be eligible for postseason play if they’re picked up by another team. The same can be said about Kershaw.

   Moronta is pitching his way off the roster. He’s securing his spot on the death pool while Price is pitching his way off of it. Price has allowed 2 ER in his last 12 games. Over that time, he’s been brought in to get the last out in an inning 3 times, pitched more than an inning 3 times and has come in with runners on 4 times. He’s allowed 33% of inherited runners to score.

   Bickford is the other weak link to the pen right now. He seems to have lost a little on the fastball and his ERA is more than double than last year. He’s pre-arb and has one option remaining, so he might come back for another year, but he’s just about done for this season. We’ll see if he can survive the looming roster DFA’s.

   1. I see what you mean about other teams picking up guys we DFA. So if we cut Moronta and Bickford, maybe someone would be tricked into signing them

      1. Not everyone is 13 deep like we are. I think Bickford, just 26 would be claimed for next year at a minimum.

         1. Trayce certainly should be coming back. Trayce, who grew up in south OC, might epitomize the case of a player who loves the proverbial home cooking. Or whatever.
            Right now he’s playing like a five-tool all-star, but he’d fallen into obscurity. The Dodgers got him with (with Frankie Montas!) after they acquired Todd Frazier from the Reds and flipped him to the White He was impressive in his first run with Dodgers (back in 2016, I think) before the back injury sidetracked his career. (I remember hoping that if there wasn’t room on the Dodgers he might get traded to the Angels.)
            He bounced around after that, showing the potential but not the performance. Remember, he was playing IN THE MINORS for DETROIT when Mookie was hurting and poor Eddy Alvarez was pressed into RF duty with awful results. (Trayce also benefited from Pillar’s injury; the Dodgers needed veteran OF depth.) Bring back Trayce Thompson six years after has proven to be a master stroke from the front office. So the best team in baseball decided to pluck him from obscurity and bring him back to LA. And it’s proven to be a masterstroke for the front office.
            . He’s again looking fantastic in the field and the plate. Rejuvenated. Unless some team swoops in with a hefty contract, he’ll surely want to stick around.

4. I wish Turner came back for at least another year, something like Utley did

   I hope Gallo has a chance to play next year as a LF, I think it would be worth it, together with Tracey they could make a good duo

   And I think that without the shift next year, definitely Muncy, Bellinger and others are going to have better numbers…. The problem is that not only them, but also the hitters from other teams, so there may be more hitting, but what level of pitching will there be?

   Personally, I would leave the shift, so there would be better pitching, so the Dodgers do not need more hitting, with what they have is enough, I prefer to have better pitching

5. Mark –

   Good article! I am not well-versed on personnel or front office matters but I agree with your takes with what I consider key 2023 players: Trey Turner, Bellinger, Hudson and Muncy.

   I think you are probably right on other potential 2023 pieces like Kershaw, J.T, Anderson, Heaney, Alberto and Thompson.

   I really don’t know enough about the others so I will leave it up to you and other LADT experts.

   I also agree with you that Tatis’ explanation is BS!

6. I can see them signing JT to 7 million or so. Chicken feed. He would probably be able to play in +/- 120 games depending on how many stints on IL

7. I do not think Trea at age 30 get $300 mil. He’ll get 30 mil a year, but not for 10 years.

   The Dodgers, by NOT trading for Soto, NOT sending out 5 prospects, and NOT having to pay Soto $450mil, have the cash now to easily retain him.

   I think he stays, I think he gets paid well, but not Seager type money, and I really do think he’s our best overall player.

   However, he does have a .228 batting avg, a .561OPS, and 45k/10bb in October. For him to really be our best player and earn some serious cash, he better show up this Oct. Last year I saw him flail away at tons of sliders off the plate, and expect every single team to throw nothing but outside sliders to him this Oct until he lays off them and draws the walk.

   1. Trea may not get $300, but he could get the highest annual value for SS, and highest on the Dodgers.
      AF did such a deal for Bauer. (Oops.)
      I assume he’ll want to be back and keep competing for the WS year after year.. I assume his family is enjoying the kind of life people with big bucks can have in SoCal.
      Who would and could throw bigger money at him? Perhaps the Yankees–but they have two top SS prospects and need to pay Judge. The Mets have $$$ but are invested in Lindor. With so much long-term money already invested in premium shortstops–Seager, Lindor, Tatis, Franco–who will compete with the Dodgers?
      The best fit, perhaps, could be the snakebit Angels.
      Arte Moreno has opened his checkbook (usually foolishly) in the past.
      A lineup that starts with Trea, Trout, Ohtani, Ward, Rendon would be scary.
      Yeah, maybe we’ll see a Dodgers-Angels bidding war.

8. Tatis played 84 games in 2019 and 59 games in 2020, not even a full 162 game season. Then the brilliant GM decided to sign him to a 14 year $340 million contract. In 2021 he played in only 130 games because of injuries. Now in 2022 he will play zero games because of a motorcycle incident and 80 game suspension and possibly only 130 games in 2023 because of the 32 game carryover suspension. You never pay good money to bad self-centered immature people. That is why AF is so successful by building a team of high character and creating a family culture. The SHAME DIEGO GM signing of Tatis and all his other stupid moves will lead to his eventual firing.

9. You people are becoming too attached to players. Fear of DFAing Bickford & Moronta? Common!

   Next Year, both Muncy & Turner are gone. We can keep Edwin Rios on AAA this year but next year Rios & Vargas will cover 3rd with CT3 and Alberto as options there.

   1. Fallito, I would love to share your enthusiasm for Rios next year, but I can’t. He was going to be groomed to take over slowly while platooning with JT this season but Rios just can’t stay healthy and on the field. So, to me< he's now just another guy competing for the job next spring with others, including JT again perhaps. He has parts of 4 seasons in the show but only 112 MLB games played. He's only hit .219 and a respectable .791 in that time. And he will be 29 next spring. I need to see more before giving him the job at 3rd or DH.

   2. Watch and learn Fallito

10. I will add I think Kersh will retire after this season, with more reason if we win the World Series.

    Our rotation next year shall will be

    1. Urías
    2. Bueller
    3. Gonsolin
    4. May
    5. Anderson

    … and we will have chance to see a lot of Miller. Pepiot, Stone,ect.

11. I agree with Bobby on TT. I can see the Dodgers offering a high-value ($35m/year), shorter term (3-4 yrs) deal. The only thing that will change that will be clutch, MVP-like hitting in the playoffs — something he has not done yet.

12. * Nice to see Tony look a little better last night. He didn’t need to perform his Houdini escapes.
    * Finally some team got smart and stopped shifting Freddie. It only took 111 games for the Royals to figure out what a few of us have suggested most of the season.
    * Nomar mentioned an adjustment that Muncy has made in the box that seems to be working. He does what we used to call “happy feet”, where he steps a little bit with his back foot before he strides with his lead foot. This isn’t typically recommended but it seems to get Muncy from sitting back too much on that back leg. The little shuffle seems to improve his balance and gets him on time. It looks more athletic and gets him down and through the baseball. Whomever suggested that little move needs to get a gold star.
    * I want to repeat what I said yesterday about Tatis” Regarding Tatis don’t you wonder why these guys with such talent feel they have to take performance enhancing drugs, assuming that’s what happened. I should wait on the facts but it just makes me wonder. Bonds had no need to cheat. But only his ego and jealousy of Big Mac and Sosa’s attention took him down that path. I’m unsure he needed his performance enhanced.
    Tatis blamed his indiscretion on a case of ringworm prevention. Piss in my ear and tell me it’s raining.
    You only need to look at the suspicious development programs by the buscones and the rules allowing 16.5 year old kids to prepared to be drafted by MLB. The suspicion of steroids and drug enhancement by 12 and 13 year olds, is nothing new. It’s an unregulated environment in countries that don’t share our views. They learn early in preparing physically for the big leagues and ringworm, apparently.”

    1. I did some research and found that I could not find a ringworm medication that contained Clostebol. In fact, the FDA does not allow Clostebol to be in any US Product.

       Don’t you wish Liars Pants would really catch on Fire?

       1. I guess he can say he got it in the Dominican Republic.. But I think the more you lie the worse it is. So now he just has to take his suspension

    2. I don’t think anybody is buying his excuse. Even his teammates and GM. Their comments the last 24 hours have been harsh. Between his injury and this, they have to be looking at getting out of his contract. He’s almost in the Josh Hamilton zone, at this point.

       That said… Twitter is being savage. And quite entertaining.

       My favorite jab so far:

       Tatis Jr Ring Count
       World Series: 0
       Worm: 1

13. It’s hard to get inside the heads of the owners. They aren’t into the business because they love sports and they have the loudest voice in how their investments are utilized, They’ve increased the value of the franchise and have a strong pipeline of future players that will be competitive even if they cut ties with todays key players and and stayed totally inhouse. Or could even put all up for sale. It’s not like they haven’t done so before. It could be what the plan was all along and I’m sure that by turning a great profit does turn them into non fans. I don’t have a clue what their money is most invested in but it’s surely something other than a sport. Most property investors desire to turn their investments in a 5 year window. I really don’t know. I’ve had millions and now I’m broke and I’m almost okay with that. I wasn’t very good at renting happiness.

14. I have no doubt that AF will front load Trea Turner’s contract and give him an opt-out, but the players association will force him to take the best offer, and he is the best SS in baseball. Therefore he will get more than Seager or Lindor. Someone will pay him that amount. The Dodgers are best situated to do it.

    1. I agree. My opinion on this has completely changed as the season has gone on. He’s not just the best shortstop he’s by far the most consistent at the plate. I think AF will have to pay up.

    2. Mark –

       I have a question regarding your statement that “the players association will force him (Trey Turner) “to take the best offer.” You mean the guy signing the contract has no choice??? What kind of pressure can they exert? Thanks….

       1. Yeah, I doubt the players’ association gets involved in individual contract negotiations. That just sounds nutty and players would be objecting to their own union.
          Also, “the best offer” depends on a lot of factors that can’t be quantified.
          Where do you want to live? What’s best for your family? How important is it to be on a winner? How important is an opt-out? …

          1. Seriously?

             I doubt the players’ association gets involved in individual contract negotiations.

             Did you just pull that out of your butt?

             Get real!

          2. Actually my friend, the MLBPA is usually pretty active in players salaries. They have voiced objections when they feel a player is selling himself below market value. They will no doubt make suggestions to what they feel Turner should ask for.

15. Just stating the obvious , sign Trae Turner long term before he becomes a free agent! Then we need a third baseman for the future !

    1. OK, I’ll play along… Why would Turner sign BEFORE he becomes a free agent?

       One reason: Offer him $500 Million! That would get it done.

       Otherwise, why would he sign?

16. IIRC, DodgerPatch doesn’t like percentages, much less percentages with decimal places.

    🙂

17. 7:10 PM ET

    Dodgers (78-33)
    Royals (47-67)

    SP Andrew Heaney L
    1-0 .64 ERA 28IP 37K 10BB
    SP Brad Keller R
    6-12 4.45 ERA 119,1IP 80K 44 BB

    Confirmed Lineup
    RF Mookie Betts R
    SS Trea Turner R
    1B F. Freeman L
    C Will Smith R
    3B Max Muncy L
    DH J. Turner R
    2B Gavin Lux L
    LF Joey Gallo L
    CF C. Bellinger L

    Partly-cloudy-day
    0% Rain
    96° Wind 10 mph Out

18. Next season seems a long way off, but I’ll bite. Kersh. 50-50. If they win the series, he retires. Muncy. 85% depending on how he finishes the year. Bellinger, 100% His defense keeps him here. Price, he has already hinted that he is going to retire. Kimbrel, 30% also depends a lot on how these last two months go. He can pitch himself right off of the team. Alberto, 75 % simply on his hidden assets. Anderson and Heaney, 50-50 on both. Duffy and Kahnle are outa here. Hudson won’t be close to being ready by spring, but he is a solid arm and could return for 23’s stretch run. Thompson, 75%. Martin, Pillar and Gallo, less than 5%. Trea Turner, 45%. I think it depends on whether or not he is totally comfortable here, or if the tug of playing closer to home kicks in. JT. sentimentally, I would love to see him play one more season,,if, he could be healthy the whole year, I think they buy him out and give him an Utley type contract.

    1. Only major disagreement I have with you Bear is Kimbrel.
       I don’t care how he finishes the season, he ain’t comin’ back. – 0%
       Other than that I pretty much agree with all the others, give or take a few percentage points.

    2. I’m with you on your reasoning and percentages except for Kimbrel. I’m in STB camp. He’s talented but I’m tired of the high wire act. Add in some bad weak hit balls and just plain bad luck and it becomes a WTF moment in almost every appearance. When you have Phillips, Treinen, and Graterol as possible closer material why carry Kimbrel’s act and salary?

       1. My theory on Kimbrel is simply this, he might not get back to where he was, but, then again, the Dodgers pitching guru’s might just turn his act around. And when Kimbrel is right, he is one of the best there is at closing games. I at this point prefer to give him the benefit of the doubt. Although I do not think the Dodgers would come close to offering him anything close to what he is making this season.

19. I bet Preller has gotten at least a couple of calls today offering to take Tatis off his hands on the cheap.

    He’s an amazing talent, and stupid kids do mature most of the time. I don’t think any contender would have him, but a team like the Reds or Rockies might be more than happy to have him if the price was right. And Preller sounds angry enough that he might just consider it…………………………for a moment…………………….before saying no.

    1. Trade when?

       1. This winter

20. I couldn’t believe that Tatis got busted for PED use. Obviously, Preller is pissed off with Tatis. I heard that Preller could have voided his contract after the motorcycle accident, but decided to give him another chance. Preller must sit around and think of dumb shit things to do. How do you give a 22 year old that had played about 100 games with San Diego with maturity issues $340,000,000 guaranteed?

    I think Preller is pissed not only at Tatis, but at himself because he knows he made a huge and costly mistake with him. In a year or so with most likely no division titles or World Series appearances, how do you go to ownership and say….
    “Hey, Soto is due a long term deal for about $500,000,000. I traded almost all of our prospects for him that are all starting for Washington, so it’s crucial that we get him signed. Yes, I know the Tatis deal has turned out to be a mistake with him playing only 80-110 games a year because of arthritis in his wrist and his continued shoulder issues. But, it’s only for another 11 years. Yes, I know Machado opted out after this year (2023) and went to play with the Giants for more money. I agree, I big timed overpaid Hosmer and Myers. But, all that’s in the past. So, what about that $500,000,000? Are we good? Fired?? Why? We’ve had a .500 record since I took over. That should count for something. What do you mean Soto has come to you and said he isn’t resigning with the Padres? What!! He’s signing with the Dodgers? For, $400,000,000? Geesh, I guess a positive spin will be I didn’t get a chance for another overpay.” L”frickin”OL.

    Tatis has redefined the phrase “Dumb and Dumber” Dumb is getting into a motorcycle accident in the offseason and not tell the team about it until spring training. Dumber is using a substance banned by MLB and totally illegal in the US. So, he is dumb and dumber. Tatis is BOTH at the same time!!

    1. Ted –

       You nailed it! Not only is Tatis in the Padre doghouse for a long, long time; but, Preller is probably in deep s… himself. I don’t know how he could even try to explain this to team owners. He may not ever get the chance to try to sign Soto….

    2. I think you’re spot on.

       This is a GM’s absolute worst nightmare. I’m sure Preller is having serious discussions with their lawyers and exploring all their options, contractually and strategically. There is no good solution. Machado might actually be more likely to not take the opt out if they cancel Jr’s contract as it’s obvious he and Tatis have bad blood. I’m sure this suspension made that much worse. MLB fans won’t forgive Tatis and many Padre fans won’t either. He went from the potential future face of the game to notorious cheat and monumental moron (ring worm? Really?). And who knows if his past performance was largely based on his PED use. Will he do it again to avoid being less of a player? Or was this to just recover from his stupid self inflicted injury? Who knows.

       If it were me I’d cancel his contract. That is unless they pulled an Arte Moreno and used a contract from LegalZoom.com. That mistake only cost the Angels $100m. This could be much worse.

    3. Come on Ted. You just don’t understand the younger generation. Tatis is just having fun and expressing himself. It’s obvious that he had an extremely rare and serious case of ringworm. The ones that bore into the skull, and make it numb. They invade the judgement center of the brain. Geez, how’s a GM supposed to know about that? Just because the guy is a hot-dog, bush league, roided up turd doesn’t make him a bad person.
       TR, I love your satirical humor. “Only 11 more years”. That’s great.

21. Turns out Tatis needs a new research assistant. He tried to convince them he took that particular medication for ringworm, but he had the wrong med.

    A doctor tweeted this a while ago:
    “[They] thought the world would mistake Clostebol, the synthetic anabolic steroid he was caught with, for Clobetasol, an over-the-counter drug used to treat skin ailments such as eczema and psoriasis. Clostebol is never prescribed for skin defects or ringworm.”

    1. You got your Clostebol in my Clobestasol! Or was it chocolate in my peanut butter?

    2. Hey, anybody here ever treat covid with Ivermectin? Or maybe Lysol….
       Too soon?
       You say Clostebol, I say Clobetasol…let’s call the whole thing off.
       The Tatis news has given me a little flashback. When Tatis first came up, Rick Monday was getting carried away about what a a physical specimen he is. He described Tatis as “really put together.”
       Hmm.

22. Maybe he put it in the wrong end.

23. So I just noticed the Dodgers are now up 10-2 in the fifth inning.
    Sheesh.
    Have there been any close games in this streak? Or have they just been pummeling the opposition all along?

    1. They score 8 or more practically every game….very few close games…..domination!

24. Muncy has been awake for what two weeks now. And the offense has been even better than it was since then.

25. Marvelous Max is on a roll!

    He would like to thank everyone here at LADT who believed in him!

    1. I want to be the first to say that I never doubted ,not for one second that we would see the triumphant return of Maximus of Thunderdome.Baby he’s back and hes kicking butt.

26. Another week of the Gallo experiment max, before we let CT3 and Trayce get ready for October.

    1. It may be longer than a week… but it ain’t long!

    2. .267/.267/.533/.800 with the Dodgers.

       Crow tastes good.

27. Well, I have set a side a plate, a fork, a knife and a high class napkin. Literally, the day after I said the the fat lady was tired of singing about Muncy… he became… Max Muncy again. You are all welcome. I removed the jinx.

    All I ask; prepare the crow properly. A little marinade. A decent side. I am willing to take my just deserts.

28. Can we bottle this for October? This is just a great team firing on all cylinders! Now this is the lineup that the pundits were touting at the beginning of the year as an all time great one! And who was the idiot who started “the black hole gang”? Look who just broke through the .700 OPS! That didn’t take long! Any kudos for Roberts who stood by Muncy?

    1. Huh? I guess if you believe that what Muncy is doing now is a result of playing every day while he was struggling. Maybe he would have snapped out of his slump sooner with some tough love, bench time, or a longer rehab assignment in AAA. Should Roberts take some criticism for Muncy’s extended slump and playing him anyways?

29. Nice easy win. They hammered the starter and kept up the pressure the entire game. They hit six homers, and some of those blasts were tattooed. Gallo’s 9th inning shot was hit a ton. So was Smith’s shot to left. Belli, Muncy, Lux and Betts also went deep. In a shocker, Freeman was held hitless.

30. A “Knuckle- Curve’ is what again? Showing up on a couple guys pitch stats.

    I tell guys my old man had this fluky bit of business he threw in the backyard. Wiffle ball movement.

    Stu Miller?

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