When we look back at past MLB seasons, history has shown all too often that it always isn’t the best team that wins the World Series. Usually, it is the team that peaks at the right time that takes the title. It doesn’t happen often, but there have been seasons when a team with close to a .500 record has reached their peak in October and won it all, while juggernauts with amazing 162-game records have fizzled out in the end or simply run out of gas in the last lap.
Such was the situation last year with superior teams like the Giants and Dodgers beating the living hell out of each other in attempts to win the division, only to be completely spent by the time that the NLCS was to be played. Either one of those teams would have lost to a well-rested Atlanta Braves team. Atlanta had timed their best baseball for the season’s end.
I would hope that Dave Roberts and the Dodger brass learned something from last year, and that is to not spend all their efforts on winning a divisional race. It was exciting, but in the end, not the best strategy to win a World Series title. This year things are completely different. The earth is back on its axis, and the Giants are where they should be at around .500. They simply are not anywhere near the Dodgers talent-wise.
In this age of the multiple post-season series with Division winners and six wildcard qualifiers, the post-season sometimes can be a crap shoot. But most of the time, it comes down to the team that is streaking at the end and is in a position where they don’t have to spend all their bullets on a hot pitcher who is running out of gas and overworked. There are exceptions to that (Bumgarner in 2014, Hershiser in 1988), but often, if you are forced to plug in a guy with short rest, failure is a frequent result. We have all been painful witnesses to that.
Let’s look at the history of post-season play after divisional play began and how it has broken down:
Since Divisional play began in 1969, there have been 53 years of analysis, with 52 champions (due to the 1994 strike/lockout in which no champion was crowned).
Of the 52 years where there has been a World Series Champion, the team with the best regular season record has won the world series 14 times, or 26% of the time. Additionally, another 13 teams have won the title with the best overall record in their respective league but not all of MLB. So that is another 25%, meaning that the teams with the best record in their league end up being the World Series Champ 51% of the time.
What we have is roughly half (49%) of the seasons since the divisional era began where the eventual champion has not had that stellar regular season record. In fact, had they played by the rules prior to the divisional play starting in 1969, half of those eventual winners would not have even qualified for post-season play.
When a Wild Card was added in 1995, the watering down of teams in the payoffs made things more difficult for division winners. We have seen that often it is a Wild card qualifier that may be the hottest team entering the playoffs. Wild Card entries have won the whole thing on seven occasions, or 26% of the time in the 27 years that a wild card has been in play. That’s the same percentage of championships as the team with the best overall regular season record winning it.
There are a few seasons where teams with extremely mediocre records have either won the World Series or came incredibly close to winning it. Below I list a few of those years.
1973
The “Ya Gotta Believe” New York Mets won the weak Eastern Division with 82 regular season wins. Had the 95-win Dodgers been in the NL East that year, they would have won the division over the Mets by 13 games. Yet, that Yogi Berra-managed team took out Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine (99-63 record) in the NLCS and eventually lost to the Oakland A’s dynasty team in a nail-biting seven-game World Series.
1987
Minnesota’s “Homer Hanky” Twins only won 87 games as the Western Division winner. They peaked in October, though, and took out Detroit in the ALCS and Cardinals in the Series. Few ever considered them as a potential World Series favorite, but their October magic streak put them over the top. They never lost a home game in that postseason.
2006
The St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series after qualifying for post-season play as an 83-78 Central Division winner, the second worst record for a division winner in the 53 years of Divisional play. The Cardinals peaked at the right time, streaking through the playoffs and dominating Detroit in the World Series, winning four games to one.
2014
The San Francisco Giants qualified as a 88-74 Wildcard team and then rode a hot pitcher to another World Series win. That was a miracle team, coming back from an 0-2 deficit and sweeping three straight in Cincinnati during the division series to win three straight before eventually taking St. Louis in the NLCS and Kansas City in the World Series.
2021
The Atlanta Braves’ 88-74 record was enough to win the NL East, and through quirky rules that granted them home-field advantage over a team that finished 18 games ahead of them and good fortune regarding scheduled post-season opponents, they won the pennant and then the World Series. Atlanta was the quintessential example of a team that peaked at the right time, playing their best baseball in October.
Were the 1973 Mets the best in the National League that year? Not even close. But they hit their stride in October and shocked the powerful Big Red Machine at the right time.
Last year’s Braves were a .500 team entering August, and then they caught fire. Trade deadline deals bolstered a struggling team with an infusion of life after the season-ending Ronald Acuña injury. By the time October rolled around, Atlanta was hot, confident, and simply tough to beat. They took advantage of a favorable schedule and a weary Dodger team that wore themselves out, winning 110 games (counting postseason) to get to the NLCS. A combination of good fortune, a well-rested lineup, a weary opponent, home-field advantage, and a pitching staff lined up for the series put them in the perfect spot to win it all.
So, where am I going with all of this?
I think it is great what the Dodgers are doing. They have blown the division wide open with a 16-game lead (as of Tuesday morning). They are five games ahead of a Yankee team that the pundits were comparing to the ‘98 Yankees as little as three weeks ago. But are they peaking too soon? For over a month, this team has played stellar baseball. Usually, the All-Star break will shut down a streak as teams take a respite from the marathon season, but this team has continued to roll at a record-like pace that will put them at well over 100 wins. Keeping these crazy winning ways going into October? It certainly is possible, but there has to be an end to it at some point.
All of this regular season success won’t mean squat if the Dodgers don’t win the World Series. As much as it is ridiculous to discount the 2020 championship because of the abbreviated season (another article for another day), we will continue hearing how the Los Angeles Dodgers have underachieved until they win the whole enchilada in a full MLB season.
Who remembers the 2001 Seattle Mariners? I’m sure we remember that great season they had in the early 2000s, but I honestly didn’t remember what year it was because all I knew is that they failed to even get to the World Series. They were a 116- win record-setting team in 2001 that was eliminated by the Yankees three games to one in the ALCS after dominating the regular season from start to finish. Yet, they fell short of the ultimate goal. We can argue about how unfair that was, but it was by the rules.
MLB’s new playoff format has granted more advantages to those with the top records, and that is a wrong being righted, but in the end, the team with the top record still has to go out and perform in post-season play.
I can’t remember a better Dodger team, and I’ve seen a lot of them. But I said the same thing in 2017, and we all knew how that ended up. This year, the final two months of the season and the overall health of the team will play a pivotal role in their chances during October baseball. We won’t see a high-pressure pennant race like last year, which should be in the Dodger’s favor as they get playoff ready. Fighting for home-field advantage should incentivize them to continue playing at a high level.
This 2022 Dodger team has a roster so deep and enough solid veterans in place that their level of experience and strengths should allow them to go all the way. Trade deadline moves by competing teams don’t seem to be enough to overtake them as the favorites, but there is time for other teams to hit their stride, so it’ll be interesting to see if the Mets, Yankees, Astros, or even the Braves again can peak at season’s end.
With the Dodgers playing near .800 ball over the last month, it can’t be expected that they continue to win at this clip for another 53 games. I’m just hoping that they don’t tail off back to a near .500 level in late-season play. This July/August peak is nice, but we know it’ll have to come to an end eventually. Can they resurge in October? That will be the biggest challenge for this team.
Future Dodgers Down on the Farm – by MT
- OKC was beaten by Round Rock 5-3
- Carson Fulmer was given the ball with the game tied 3-3, and he coughed up the game in the 9th inning, allowing 2 Hits, 2 ER, and 3 BB as he lost the game.
- Edwin Rios was 1-4 as the DH
- Tulsa beat the Midland Rock Hounds 4-2
- With the score tied in the bottom of the 9th, Leonal Valera hit a walk-off two-run HR for the win.
- Andy Pages was 2-4 with both hits being doubles.
- Alex Gamboa went 7 innings and allowed just 2 ER.
- Jordon Leasure now has 71 K’s in 46 IP and has only walked 15. He could be a future closer if he develops a better secondary pitch.
- Great Lakes beat Peoria 3-2
- Diego Cartaya was 3-3 with his 18th HR. He also walked.
- Nick Frasso went 3 innings, allowed 3 Hits, 0 Runs, 0 Walks and Struck out 4. He also picked a runner off 1B.
- Ryan Sublette (2 scoreless innings) got the win, his 6th. He has 75 Ks in 45 IP, but has also walked 30 batters. He has a future, IF he can cut down on the walks.
- Damon Keith is struggling mightily at GL.
- Rancho Cucamonga beat Lake Elsinore 9-7
- Kyle Nevin was 2-3 with 3 Runs SCored and 2 RBI to go with a walk. His hits were a double and triple.
- Nick Biddison was 1-3 with a 2 run HR.
Last Night’s Game
- Max Muncy was hit on his throwing hand and had to leave the game. X-Rays were negative, but he could miss some time.
- Joey Gallo flashed his power as he hit a 3-run HR. That’s what he brings… the only question is: How often can he bring it?
- I am more convinced than ever that Ryan Pepiot should be a reliever in the fashion of Andrew Miller.
- Craig Kimbrel may not make the playoff roster. He’s not a starter.
- The Dodgers may be the best defensive team in all of baseball. Does anyone want to challenge that?
Kimbrel no. Unless he has a monster 2 months
Now that Muncy is finally starting to pick up his batting rhythm and warm up, it’s going to take days again for a possible but not serious injury… Hopefully it’s just a short break
Providing his hand is OK, he needs the rest.
Evan is right on – It’s all about the timing. The playoffs are a crapshoot. A hot team can be tough to beat.
Clayton Beeter pitched three shutout innings last night and struck out 6. What’s the difference? It’s a pitcher’s league! If you can pitch in the Texas League, you are legit!
COME ON! AF’s just showin off now! First Thompson then Martin and now Gallo! We may not lose another game all year and we get to keep all our top prospects! That’s deadline magic. I heard he was kite surfing the other day without a kite. Able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. His only kryptonite is his loyalty to a “bad” manager and even a worse person according to those who know him well here at LADT. Surely B&P, Roberts isn’t the only one who ever tried to run you over with a car? An ex wife or girlfriend, an ex business associate, Eric?
In high school I got run over in the parking lot from someone that was exiting auto shop. Apparently, I wasn’t walking fast enough.
It was a jeep, I tried to get out of the way, slipped and fell with leather sole shoes and the Jeep drove right over me with the front tires and stopped and pinned my foot with the back tire. I got my first component stereo system as a result of that mishap.
Something similar happened to me in college and I got a complete backpacking set with tent! I guess we both could be better car Dodgers!
What a moronic comment. DR is known as one of the nicest men in baseball. Get over it.
Speaking of moronic comments…
Evan –
Really good article! You have provided a dose of reality for all of us bandwagoners to think about during this great Dodger run. To think that 49% of World Series winners in the playoff era did not even have the best record in their league is shocking to me.
I guess it comes down to the old adage in all sports about how having “Big MO (momentum)” is so important. It just doesn’t seem right after 162 game regular season. But, “it is what it is”….
Happy for Gallo; I guess AF knows better than all of us. We shall see how it unfolds the rest of the way.
Disappointed for Max, he finally is getting Big Mo on his side at the plate and now he will be out for awhile.
Go Dodgers (I think!)
Someone did an analysis before and it’s even more random than that.
Momentum at the end of the regular season is of negligible or near-negligible effect.
It’s almost all about hot steaks that begin within the playoffs.
It also helps your WS run when role players step up and play out of their minds like the 3 outfield pickups for the Braves last year including our own Joctober. So keep eyes on CT3, Gallo or Rios and Thompson in October.
If Brusdar and Treinen make it all the way back and are productive, I can foresee Kimbrel not being on the post season roster for at least the 3 out 5 NLDS round. He simply doesn’t have a clean 1-2-3 inning in him on a consistent basis.
Hope Max is OK and just needs a 4-5 game respite to heal up. JT is back and between him, CT3 and Hanser they can all handle 3B or DH while Gallo and Trayce play LF.
Pepiot has a bright future but he needs to tame his control problems. 84 pitches and 3 BB in 4.1 innings of work does inspire me with a great deal of confidence he will be a factor going down the stretch or being that minor league call-up that makes a difference in the post season ala Dustin May in 2020. With the Dodger depth they won’t need that kind of performance from him, but he indeed needs to sharpen and repeat his throwing motion to get outs more consistently and to limit three ball counts. The experience he will get over the next two months will be invaluable assuming he stays on the big league roster.
Pepiot reminds me a bit of Gonsolin. Given a more consistent role and a bit more confidence in his stuff and I think he could be a valuable part of the rotation going forward. He needs to improve the slider but I still like him and I love that change up. Who knows if we’ll be able to sign both Julio and Buehler.
I was thinking the same thing about Pepiot and Gonsolin.
I fell asleep before the end of the game last night. Curious about Kimbrel’s latest mishap, I decided to watch the bottom of the ninth on the MLB app. After two quick outs on 5 pitches, Kimbrel left a center cut fastball over the plate for liner of a double. Correa up to the plate, called curveball for a strike, fastball way up and out of the zone, then a comebacker with a lot of English off Kimbrel’s glove. Once again, should have been an easy 3 outs. With Polanco at the plate, a curve in the dirt advances Correa and another curveball in the dirt gets past Smith for a run and a 2-1 count. Next pitch a fly ball to left for the final out on a fastball that caught a lot of the plate.
This guy is the unluckiest pitcher on the planet right now. But, at some point, you have to put up or shut up. He’s way too wild and is turning into “Wild Thing” ala Mitch Williams.
Speaking of Wild Thing, Pepiot also falls under that category. Did he strike his first pitch to any hitter last night? The fastball has good movement, the slider is getting really tight, late movement and the change-up is like a Buggs Bunny pitch. He just needs more seasoning and learn to throw more strikes. Way too premature to think of him as a bullpen piece.
Max’s hand injury is concerning. X-Rays came back negative, but not being to close your hand is bad news. Many times, those small fractures in those small bones in the hand don’t show on initial x-rays. We’ll see what happens after a night in the ice bath. If nothing’s broke, he should be able to get back on track in a couple of days. If it lingers, it could derail his current run and set him back into that black hole of production. It’s good that there’s an off day today and a horrible Royals team next up on the schedule. Get him back on track by the Brewers series.
How about Joey Gallo with hits in back-to-back games? A double and homer at that!
All that winning! On the Fourth of July, one of my son’s friends whom he played baseball with stopped by for dogs and ribs and joked about what the Dodger Dogs tasted like. He asked, do they taste like winning? Can you believe we’ve lost just 5 games since the start of July? That’s 30 wins against 5 losses! That’s an 857 winning percentage for over a month! Incredible.
I’m not sure “peaks” can be timed. Right?
What I am sure about is:
1. No more calls for Muncy to be DFA’d
2. No more calls for a new hitting coach
3. No recent lengthy posts from William in quite a while
Speaking on Muncy, his option for next year is going to be an interesting decision to watch. Lots of youth, cheaper youth even to the below market option, to consider
It’s very difficult, especially with a team sport versus an individual sport, but timing a peak for the playoffs is the reason for the parade of starting pitchers going on the IL for mystery ailments the last few years, or the spaghetti on the wall approach to using different relievers in the first half of the season. Roberts deviated from the template a little last year to try to catch the Giants and the team ran out of gas at the end.
Yeah. Makes sense. I would love to see some of the arms get a rest, but then you run into the “lost rhythm” silliness.
It’s a toughie.
William is under Suicide watch
I have been a big fan of Max.With the shift out of play next year and now we see he is still capable of hitting like he has for the last 5 years. I say we watch him the rest of the year and offer him a 1 year with a option.Does he have a option this year.
Dodgers have a team option on Max for 2023. $13MM with a $1.5MM buyout, so basically he’ll cost them $11.5 MM if they pick up the option.
I agree that the elimination of the shift next year should really help both Max and Belli. Considering the size of the Dodger payroll, to me it’s a no-brainer that they pick up the option.
100% agree. I’ve never given up on Marvelous Max. And yes, take that shift away….oh baby! Watch out.
Good morning y’all. That is southern for HOWDY! One thing I noticed last night, and have actually seen in his other starts, Pepiot often misses to the arm side on his pitches. Maybe a different starting point on the mound would correct that. Also, the fan’s reaction to Correa should convince anyone who has championed signing him if Turner leaves, would be a very bad idea. No way he would ever be accepted in Dodger blue. I doubt they would welcome anyone from that team. He has passed Manny Machado on the we can’t stand this guy meter. Padres mauled the Giants yesterday.
I would drop baseball and never watch another game if Correa were to ever sign with Dodgers! Naw, they could never expect fans to cheer for that #$%^&! I had trouble finding a decent stream and was busy trying and thusly missed that announcement. And I was really looking forward to it.
Nice read Evan.
You know what, some wise posters here were all for conceding the Division to SF last season, to ensure maximum performance in the WCG and beyond.
Not hindsight, but foresight.
PhilJ raised an interesting point about where does Rios fit in going forward?
Maybe fete has played its cards, and Max goes to the IL, and Edwin gets the call to man the Hot Corner for a look see?
I have never thought there should be such a thing as wild cards in baseball. I’m hoping MLB expands two more teams and each league divide into two divisions to take most of the crapshoot out of the equation. And that might not be fair enough with both leagues playing with exactly the same rulebook. I doubt MLB would even consider stepping back as it would mean less money. But the money should go to the deserving franchises who actually won their divisions and leagues without backdoor rules.
But this season is different with the Dodgers. They aren’t stressed or overworked and I’m sure are all ready to eager to get on the field each game. Maybe there might be a taste of stress with a couple pitchers but timing is right with reinforcements returning from the IL. They are playing with a joy and it shows. This team has no need to look back. And why can’t it continue through October? That saying that gonna win 1/3 games and gonna lose 1/3 games and end up with something in between is the usual but this team is unusual. Health could make them human but at the moment they are gods.
For MLB Quas, it is all about the money. They expanded the playoffs supposedly to get more cities and teams involved in the postseason. In actuality, declining attendance has thrown a monkey wrench into their plans. Despite their record the Mets are 7th in attendance this year. Over half the teams draw less than 30,000 a night, with Oakland being the worst with 9000 a night average attendance. The Dodgers average almost 10,000 more fans at their home games than the #2 team, the Cardinals. 5 teams, either in the wild card race or fighting for a playoff spot, draw less than 30,000 a night, and Cleveland, who just leapfrogged Minnesota into first place in the AL Central, is drawing less than 20,000 a night. The Dodgers are at 2.6 mil in home attendance already. They are also the best draw on the road. Yanks are close. They are the only team averaging 40 thou a night between home and road. And next season, the schedule is going to be where you play every team. It is all about the Benjamins my man.
Padora’s box is open and there’s no going back. 12 teams in the playoffs is much closer than what the other leagues have, than traditional baseball.
Let’s see if the new playoff format changes anything. Wild Card teams that are lucky enough to reset their pitching still have to burn a minimum of two pitchers in their first series before getting to play a best of 5 against the team that gets to reset their pitching. This should make it tougher for the wildcards and the third division winner to advance. Potentially having their 4 / 5 starters pitch against the buy team’s aces on the road with extra rest. The bye teams will have a slight disadvantage with their bats possibly sitting for 3-4 games waiting to play again.
Totally agree. We have to wait and see how it all plays out.
Could only be 3 games as the WC round is a best of 3. A cross country flight could be possible….
* Dear Doc. Please continue to pitch Kimbrel in the 9th when we have a 3 or 4 run lead. That way he can get his inning and make believe he’s still the closer. Then in a close game you can go with Phillips when you need a clean inning.
* Orel made an interesting comment on Pepiot. He’s thrown under 200 total pro innings. An old scout told Orel “you really don’t understand who you are as a pitcher until you have thrown 600 innings professionally”. I’d never heard that number before and found it interesting.
* I went to a High A game a couple of nights ago where the Pitch Clock was in use. It was a 4-0 game and it took 1:59 minutes. All the pitchers and hitters worked within the time limits with ease. For the life of me I can’t see why the Players Union has opposed this.
* Did I mention I want to re-sign Trea Turner? I have mentioned his skills I failed to mention how he can range from the shift on lefties and catch the pop up down the 3rd base line. He go range baby.
He is so fun to watch hit. He’s such a hands hitter.
* I sometimes wonder if Orel watches games? He was all over Polanco, bottom 3, for running through and one handing the easy grounder by Freddie. Ole. Fact is every infielder on the left side now run thru everything. Ole is the New Way.
* Gray balked on Freddie’s early break steal where he was out at second. He did the spin move to 2nd which is legal. But Freddie was on 1st. When that front heal lifts or knee buckles, with a runner on 1st, Gray has to go home.
* JT’s wife as done wonders for is personal facial grooming. He doesn’t look homeless any more.
I thought this replacement umpire, Nestor Ceja was great. Way better than Hitchcock, Diaz, Bucknor and those old turds
* If you want to teach a grandkid how to hit, watch Will Smith. His swing is simple, short and he trusts his hands to the ball.
* Showing some leather. The Dodger infielders are really making plays. But don’t forget who’s on the receiving end. It has to be nice to know that you just have to throw it somewhere over there and Freddie picks it every time. He makes the other infielders look good every might.
Agree on Turner….if you want to teach a grandkid or anyone else to hit, watch Freddie Freeman go to all fields for hits and power…
It seems to me Kimbrel would be just as scary pitching the 7th as he is pitching the 9th. I wouldn’t feel any better watching him allow 1-2 runs just because it comes in the 7th inning.
I do believe we have pitchers who have earned a promotion in the bullpen- Phillips and Ferguson.
Asked this elsewhere, but….
Question/Opinion Solicitation:’
Rank the following in terms of contribution to the teams’ current and future success:
Mark Prior
Dave Roberts
Robert Van Scoyoc
Mark Prior – 1.
Dave Roberts – 1a.
Robert Van Scoyoc – 1b.
As the Oklahoma City Dodgers prepare to lose starting pitcher Dustin May, whose rehab assignment in Triple-A will conclude this weekend, their bullpen is about to get a major shot in the arm.
According to J.P. Hoornstra in the Orange County Register, Blake Treinen and Brusdar Graterol, two fireballing Dodgers relievers, will join OKC on Friday to begin their rebab assignments. The goal is for each righty to return to the Dodgers in the next few weeks, with Graterol probably a few days ahead of Treinen simply because of the length of time they’ve each been sidelined.
Graterol hasn’t pitched since July 10, when a sore shoulder sent him to the injured list. According to Hoornstra, Graterol is itching to get back on a big-league mound.
“I feel great. I feel like I’m back again.”
For Treinen, the road has been much longer. While his diagnosis was roughly the same as Graterol’s — “shoulder soreness” — he has been out since mid-April and has had a much slower ramp-up in returning.
Treinen didn’t pitch enough this season to say much about performance, but he was inarguably the Dodgers’ best reliever in 2021, when he led all Los Angeles relievers with 72.1 innings pitched and posted a stellar 1.99 ERA with 85 strikeouts and a 0.982 WHIP.
16 game lead with 52 to play is pretty impressive. Cubs beat the Reds 4-2 in the Field of Dreams game. Ken Griffey Jr and his dad had a catch in the outfield before the game, along with some other fathers and their kids. No homers this time. There will be construction going on there, so probably no game next year.