I watch selected Minor League Games, sometimes switching from OKC to Tulsa to Great Lakes and even to Ranch Cucamonga. Last night I watch Bobby Miller take the mound for the Tulsa Drillers as they played the Wichita Wind Surge at ONEOK Field in Tulsa. Bobby Miller earned his third win of the season as he led the Drillers with a strong night on the mound as Tulsa scored just enough to hold off Wichita 5-4. The win gave the Drillers sole possession of first place in the Texas League North.
Devin Mann was the offensive hero, hitting a 3-Run HR, his 8th, but I was more interested in watching Bobby Miller who throws in the high 90’s and low 100s with what seems to be “little effort.” He went 5.2 innings and while his numbers were not “eye-popping” they were solid. Bobby allowed 6 hits, but five of them were singles (the other was a solo HR by Matt Wallner (his 13th). He gave up 2 Earned Runs and walked 3 while striking out 7. His ERA is 4.60 with a 1.23 WHIP for the year.
Bobby has now pitched 47 innings this year and has allowed 41 hits. He has walked 17 while striking out 50. The walks are certainly too high, but what the stats don’t tell you is that he is not “wild.” When he misses, it’s not by much. Pitches don’t “get away” from him. He has only given up 4 HRs this year and in his 103 minor league innings, he has only allowed 6 dingers. Hitters don’t often “barrel him up.” There is a lot of weak contact induced by his repertoire. Last night’s hits were usually of the “seeing-eye” variety.
If you just look at the stats, then one might conclude that Bobby Miller is another year away, but if you really watch him pitch you may conclude (like me) that he is pretty dang close. Bobby will be 24 years old next April and he could very well be a candidate for the Dodgers rotation by then. Last year was his first professional season and he pitched 57 innings, including in the Arizona Fall League. This year he has 47 innings pitched and I would imagine that he might get 100 to 115 innings this year. He has pitched 80+ in College a couple of times, so he’s not a youngster that has to be babied.
It’s obvious that the Dodger’s developmental staff is working with him on some mechanical aspects of his game, but I have no clue what that is and they certainly are not going to tell me. While his delivery is free and easy, it appears they are working on or experimenting with his best release point. I simply say this: My eyes can’t reconcile his 4.60 ERA with how I see him pitch. He looks much better this year than last year when he put up a 2.40 ERA. What I am trying to say is that Bobby Miller is not far from MLB-Ready. While I do not think we will see him THIS season (unless it is in relief), I think he could definitely be in the 2023 rotation. He is indeed a “horse” and his stuff is filthy!
Future Dodger Prospects
- At OKC last night Mike Busch was 2-4 with a double.
- Jason Martin was also 2-4 with 3 RBI, including his 9th HR.
- However, the hitting star at OKC was Jacob Amaya (who played 2B – McKinstry was at SS) and was 2-4 with 5 RBI, including a Grand Salami!
- Jake Lamb is playing LF probably pending a callup.
- Diego Cartaya was 2-4 for GL with 2 RBI and a BB.
- Leonard (2-5), DeJesus (4-6), and Ramos (3-5) were all part of a 13-run exploding for the Loons.
- Nick Nastrini pitched 4.2 innings and allowed 3 hits (0 Runs) while walking 3 and striking out 9.
I think there is a pretty good chance Diego ends up at Tulsa this season. In other words, Great Lakes will be Sans Diego! See what I did there?
You mean he will be Diego Driller! Are White and Pepiot rotational pieces next year? And what happens to Heaney and Anderson next year if they continue to pitch like this? Are you giving them 2-3 year deals with all this pitching talent knocking on the door?
Heaney and Anderson will likely move on if they keep pitching as they are. Someone will give them more money and they cannot block the youngsters. At best, one might stay.
Mark, do you think AF might look back on those two contracts as flawed in that he may have had the leverage to insist on team options for 2023?
Well, the people who would criticize him for that are the same ones who criticized him for signing them in the first place. He really can’t win when coming to second-guessing, however,
I am fine with a one-year deal, due to the fact that Miller, Pepiot, Knack, Stone, and others are getting close.
I agree with your take on Miller, Mark.
Better than his ERA indicates. A LOT better.
Other than you I think we could see him late in the season as a bullpen piece especially if WB does not come back in time or Treinen is lost for the year. Another flame thrower to give us 2-3 solid innings.
Next season he should be in the running for a starters job. The stuff is just too good not to be in the rotation.
Pepiot, Grove and White could be trade bait come the deadline. Dodgers probably need another big bat in the middle of the lineup unless at least two of Muncy, Belli and JT do not return to their career numbers.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m in agreement. A lot of these guys are trade chips since there isn’t enough room in the rotation for everyone. It would be great to keep one of Heaney or Anderson, but I think both would be expensive, they’ll find someone else to fix next year.
I can’t see White becoming trade bait. He’s young, cheap and very useful. He’s also used to pitching in the pen and is becoming comfortable in the rotation. That’s a valuable commodity.
I also think that Pepiot and Miller are probably close to off limits as far as trades go. They seem to have the best pure stuff and the Dodgers won’t want to let that go. It would take a pretty big name to pry one of them away.
I’m still hopeful that Treinen, Kahnle and V-Gone will all be back at some point. V-Gone is the only one of them that went under the knife for debridement, so he should be available to start throwing 6-8 weeks after the surgery, much like Buehler.
I don’t see AF trading any of the top pitchers in the system. We have 3 starters not under contract for next year, including CK. AF values flexibility over all else. Unless he trades one or more for a starter with 2-3 years of team control. Even then, I think he wants to keep the system stacked until they know where the rotation sits in ST 2023.
Wow, didn’t realize that the Grand Salami was Jake’s first AAA hit. On top of that, those 4 hits by DeJesus were of the cycle variety. Big night for the prospects.
There are simply too many variables and unknowns to try to figure out what the Dodgers might do moving forward.
As to the rotation, what will be the status of Walker Buehler? What about Clayton Kershaw? Can they work out two to three year deals for Andrew Heaney or Tyler Anderson? Who will actually be ready to step up from the minors —- Ryan Pepiot, Mitch White or …
What about shortstop. If they don’t sign Trea Turner that will leave a big hole, the three hitter. Who will be the shortstop? Will Max Muncy recover? Who knows? Will Cody Bellinger become an impact hitter again? Or will he continue to struggle? What about Justin Turner? They have three hitters definitely coming up short and it’s a drag on offense. Losing AJ Pollock certainly hurt the offense.
I’m guessing you can make the rotation and bullpen work. There seems to be enough options. But the offense is questionable. Again, depending on the status of Buehler, will the Dodgers have enough to compete for a World Series title. The payroll is $310 million, I think that still includes Trevor Bauer until the appeal gets resolved.
San Diego and the Giants seem to be in for the long haul. If the Dodgers come up short in the NL West again, will they reevaluate their approach or double down? No question the farm may be their saving grace, but will those players make an impact in the near future?
As to the short term, do the Dodgers pursue another bat or focus on a starting pitcher or try to come up with both.? The bullpen looks okay. But starting pitchers won’t be cheap. Is there anybody not on the radar that might make a difference? At this point, not sure who that would be. I think we’re another month away from that picture coming into focus.
Right now everyone has to be pleased with Anderson and the continued development of Tony Gonsolin. Now if Kershaw can stay healthy, Urias dominate, the Dodgers may be okay. Hopefully Andrew Heaney comes back with an edge.
What if’s can be said about every team. You want to talk about the likelihood of next year’s roster when the season is 1/3 over? Sure, I guess…
Let’s start with the rotation…
Kershaw will most likely be back and go on the IL as he does every year.
Buehler will most likely come back from injury.
Gonsolin, Urias and May will be back. That’s a pretty cheap rotation with Miller, Pepiot and company backing them up. Expect the next Heaney and Anderson type signing that may or may not work out.
I’ll skip the pen because it’s pretty damn good and controllable and it a lotto pick from year to year. We have Treinen and Hudson under contact, will probably need a bona fide closer.
You can probably count this as Turner’s last year, so there’s a hole to fill. Same with Trea, so we’ll need two infielders. Gavin can play SS and 2B as well as LF. CT3 can play SS, 3B and Outfield, so there’s some flexibility.
Belli will most likely get another shot. Mookie and Freddie are mainstays. Muncy is in the same boat as Belli, but probably has a better seat on that boat.
Here’s what we start off with
Muncy 3B/2B (32)
Belli CF (27)
Mookie RF (30)
Freddie 1B (33)
Gavin SS/2B/LF (25)
CT3 3B/2B/LF (32)
Smith C (28)
Money coming off the books
21M – Trea Turner
20M – JT
16M – Price
16M – Kimbrel
8M – Anderson
8.5M – Heaney
3.7M – Kahnle
1.7M – Pillar
35.3M – Bauer
Total = 130M
So, you need to replace TT and JT and find a closer and one of those pitchers to fix.
Pitcher to fix 10M
Closer 16M
So, now you have about 100M to spend to replace two position players, and fill out the roster.
There isn’t a lot of infielders available, so maybe CT3 and Lux are the Double Play combo and Muncy plays 3B. Maybe Vargas or Busch takes a spot in the infield and they can make a run at a bat or just go with the rooks until next year’s deadline. Busch and Vargas are at AAA, as is Amaya. Outman and Pages are at AA right now.
So, there’s a good chance that one of them takes one of those spots, so they probably just need to sign 1 free agent, two if you want CT3 to go back to super util. A lot depends on what Rios brings to the table if he comes back from injury.
Anyways. Plenty of options and certainly not as bad as you’re trying to make it seem.
Excellent breakdown BP. Great info.
Excellent breakdown, BP. I’m always focused on the present with an eye on the future. Not sure how they replace Trea’s bat or his impact on the game. The pitching will be fine if Buehler comes back healthy. After watching a few games st the stadium recently, not so sure I have much faith in the offense. Too many swings and misses with runners in scoring position. Right now, the jury is out on Muncy, JT and Bellinger. If they don’t bounce back, it may be a tough ride the rest of the season as they battle the Padres and Giants. That, of course, means changes in 2023, unless you believe that another year will make a difference.
Better pay Trea!I can’t say it enough!
Well last year they came up “short” winning 106 games. So somebody must be doing something right! I’d double down on 106 all day every day
As they say:
1. There is a fine line between Genius and Insanity.
2. There s a fine line between Saturday Night and Sunday Morning.
3. There is a fine line between Success and Failure when you swing at a baseball hurling through space!
I am of the opinion that JT, Belli, and Max could break out at any time…
or not!
Well Belli is broken (not) and JT is old (not) so Muncy is the only realistic hope to break out. And hopefully Rios can come back be a force with the bat. We really need a prospect bat to break out next year.
Bear,
I really enjoyed your write up on Yogi, but couldn’t respond until today. Your stories are like a time machine that takes me back to my childhood when I fell in love with Baseball.
I got to go to an Angel Yankee game at Wrigley Field in the early sixties. When we got to the park we found out the game was sold out. My Dad paid a scalper $40 for 5 reserved seat t tickets. His weekly paycheck was only $85.00. It was one of the best things he ever did for me and I am still thankful for and appreciate what he did for me. The seats were right behind the Angels dugout . Mickey and Yogi went deep and I will never forget it.
In the nineties I was a district manager for a retail company and for a while I had the Saint Louis district I went to the Hill. An old residential neighborhood with modest houses and some houses that were small family restaurants. I was escorted to a room that I thought would normally be a bedroom which had been set up for dining. I ordered spaghetti and meatballs and it turned out that there were just 2 meatballs, about the size of my fist and they were delicious as was everything else. I could kind of visualize Yogi and Joe playing in the streets. Really fun.
Thanks Bob, posts like this make it all worth while. Any other players you might want profiled let me know.
I don’t think AF is feeling quite as optimistic right about now unless somehow things are going exactly as planned. Fat chance that’s the case. Sadly for the $ spent the Dodgers are coming up short………SO FAR. Still in the running although no longer are best record in baseball or the league or the division. AF did all the things that appeared to be all the ducks in a row. To me the line up looked like they’d win all 162 games. Guess that’s what I get for expecting a temporary fix for my broken heart. But on a good note I’m getting my cataracts removed. While I hope things go better with the Dodgers my eyesight is more important.
I’m smelling something different with Diego. At this point it’s the fact that he’s a catcher which might keep the Dodgers from putting him on full fast track.
Ivan Rodriguez made his MLB debut at 19. Never saw AAA. Juan Soto went from A+ to AA to AAA and then MLB in one season (also 19).
Sure, it’s hard to crown Diego as Soto or Pudge at this point. But it’s happened before. Even for a catcher. And it is also almost certain that Pudge was also 20 or 21 at the time.
But I will go on record that we may end up surprised with where he goes this year. He has poise, massive confidence and can just freaking hit. Not sure where they are evaluating his defense at this point. That’s likely the wildcard. But I believe his bat and makeup could play right now. I don’t think I’ve ever said that about any Dodger prospect at his age (or at only high A) before.
Im probably wrong about this. But the chances Diego gets his first big league at bat this year aren’t high. But I also don’t think they are zero.
I agree – Diego will be in the Show by Age 21… if not before!
I think the only way he could even sniff the Show THIS year is if Smith, Tellis, Wolters, and Company were all injured. The Dodgers have 3 journeymen C at AAA who are doing very well. However, he could almost certainly be in the mix for 2023.
JT Retires
Cartaya goes to C
Will Smith gets to 3B – If Will did not have the wear and tear of catching, he would hit better (IMHO).
BTW, I just talked to someone pretty well connected who says the Dodgers and most other teams do not see Lux as a SS. This was in response to my question: “Will the Dodgers sign Trea Turner?” I’ll tell you his answer in a minute.
Tick, Tick, Tick… OK
He said: “If they give him the best deal.” and then he said think about this “The Marlins are rebuilding and Tampa Bay is TB. But what if the Dodgers offered him a 10yEra $300 Million deal with $40 Million a year being paid in the first 3 years and they included an opt-out after 3 years? A third of the value of the contract is in the first 3 years, so he would likely opt out and maybe go home to play.”
I thought that was rather ingenious.
A deal like that does look like something AF would offer for Trea. I’m still skeptical.
And I can’t disagree on Lux. I’ve always been a huge fan of his. But SS isn’t 2B. From the first time I saw Lux play I described his personality as “focused, intense”. Which has very much been confirmed since he was called up. He has issues getting in his own head. He has the arm and athleticism for SS, but I’m not sure he has the personality. His biggest potential future value is with his bat. The pressure of taking over SS would likely effect his progression as a hitter. He’s nowhere near his potential offensively. I just hope he gets there at some point. And adding more pressure as SS won’t help.
Flip side, Diego had a level of ease and confidence that I’ve rarely seen. He’s the opposite of Lux, in that sense. Lux is laser focused. Which can often backfire if things are not going so well. Diego doesn’t even look like he’s trying. Seems oblivious to any pressure he’s under. Just puts on a uniform, jokes with his teammates while warming up and… see ball…crush ball.
I’m just wondering if the Dodgers don’t find a way to get his bat in the lineup somehow by playoffs. DH is always there. His bat is ready now.
I’ll go on record that he will likely be the face of the franchise soon. By 2024 for certain. But I’m also beginning to think it might be much sooner.
I will not disagree… he is a special talent.
I’m in agreement here as well. The dude has a reasonable chance be the next big thing. Jayne said it best. The guy feels no pressure, just crushes baseballs.
I’m fine of Lux winds up as the Dodgers long term second baseman. I don’t have anybody else I like better at second. I also like to picture him at shortstop.
I would absolutely love for Smith to play third for the Dodgers for the next 8 years. Justin will be at most a bench player if he re-signs next year and Muncy might just be only a DH next year.
So, 2023
C Diego
1B Freemen
2B Lux
3B Smith
SS Trea and his $37M, $37M, $37M, /optout/$28M, $28M, $28M, $28M, $28M, contract
LF ? Hopefully Taylor returns to Swiss Army Knife
CF Bellinger (the doubles hitter version)
RF Betts
That leaves Knack, Busch, Vargas, Hoese, and I will add Taylor as part of a package to trade for a guy that plays for the Nationals.
Anthony Rendon out for the season.
The Arte Moreno curse Strikes again.
I’m sure glad Rendon didn’t want to play in “Hollywood”.
Arte might as well just buy a massive incinerator for his cash.
Sometimes it is better to be lucky than good
No sometimes about it, it’s always better to be lucky than good.
As I write, the Dodgers are sittng in 2nd place 0.5 games behind the Pads. I wonder how the team lost ground so fast? Well, I’m sure there are many reasons and you guys have probably addressed them all. I sure am disappointed with the way the team has been playing lately, but then I think about Gonsolin and Anderson. Without the two of them the Dodgers would be in 3rd place, easily 6 or 7 games out of 1st. Count your blessings. Thank God for Tony and Tyler. Somehow that offense is going to get hot again. I can just feel it.
Go Dodgers!
They lost 9 of 13 before winning two from the Angels. And with Freeman and Betts both slumping at the same time and no one picking up the slack, well that is how you lose ground. Look at tonight’s lineup. First two hitters over .280. 3-4-5-6 no one hitting over .250. Turner Bellinger and Muncy all down around the Mendoza line. Taylor at ,250, Alvarez around 210, then Lux at .288. Offense is sucking wind right now. They miss Rios and his occasional pop. Consistency is not their game.
A lot of good stuff today.
AF isn’t worried about this team at all. He has the deepest team in baseball and he knows it. Judging by the way he operates, his goal is to build the deepest team in order to withstand injury. Try to get as many of the key players healthy by the post-season. Go to the postseason every year, because that’s where the money is. Winning it all is the byproduct of executing the plan.
In a long baseball season, there are ups and downs. On June 17th, we are now 1/2 game out of first after spending almost the entire year in first, or having the best record in the NL, and / or all of baseball. Even though he had most of his rotation on the IL, we’re still where we are. Even though most of the pen is on the IL, still here. Muncy, Turner and Belli sucking, still here. If this is the low point, I’ll take it.
Not sure how many times a team went from start to finish with the best record in baseball. But, even so, you just can’t guarantee that outcome no matter what. You can’t buy that, you can’t develop it. There is luck, or randomness, or chance or whatever you want to call it involved.
As far as Max, Trea and Belli goes, JT’s career is running on fumes. You can see the decline last year. He’s got bad knees and age (37) is not on his side. He might have a couple of streaks left in him, or a big hit in the postseason, but I don’t see how AF can justify his option. He’ll most likely pass and bring him back on the cheap if they can come to some sort of agreement. But, not a lot of 38 year olds, coming off a -WAR season are going to get too many looks.
Max is in a weird situation. He’s playing injured and who knows if he’s gonna be fine later this year or next year. There’s a club option, it looks like, for 13M. Seems like a reasonable amount to retain him, after that he’s a free agent and who knows?
Cody Bellinger got a raise from 16.1 to 17M after last year’s injury ridden and pathetic year. This year isn’t as bad as last and he’s doing better than JT and Muncy, so there’s that. JT and Muncy aren’t earning any money for their D. Cody is. I know everyone hats him, but he’s just 26. To put that into perspective, that’s the have that Max Muncy started hitting and JT didn’t really start doing damage with the bat until he was 29. Cody is a long ways from being done as a player. Hell, Joc is having his best start to a season and he’s freaking 30 years old! And he’s coming off a very mediocre .238/.310/.422/.732, Don’t give up on Belli! BTW – he was way worse last year and was one of our best hitters in the post season.
I don’t believe “everyone hats (hates?) him” meaning Bellinger. Nobody hates him. We’d all like to see him succeed. But it’s a production business and he isn’t producing at the plate. We all hope he will but how long can we get by with 3 core guys hitting .200? Belli bought himself how many non-productive years expecting to get raises? There are other quality defensive outfielders who can hit .200 that are not going to ask for the king of money that Bellinger and Boras probably will want. $20 million max, based on right now, would even be a stretch for me and maybe 2 years, 3 max. No way he’s getting longer years and more than a 100 million from me. And not because I hate him.
But we get ahead of ourselves. A lot will happen, including arbitration, before this is critical.
Okay, go ahead and list all those quality defensive outfielders that are hitting 200 with 22 extra base hits who are also cheaper that the $17 M he’s making this year. I think the results will surprise you.
One guy that fits that description is Chris Taylor, who makes just 2M less, doesn’t steal as many bases and doesn’t play his defense. Runs Scored, Extra Base Hits, RBI are all just about the same as Belli. Belli is younger and CT3 just signed that contract. So, as I’ve said before. If CT3 is worth $15M, than Belli isn’t overpaid by any means. Remember, CT3 never gave us anything close to Bellinger’s first 3 years. That’s worth the extra two million and then some.
10:10 PM ET
Guardians (32-27)
Dodgers (39-23)
SP Clayton Kershaw L
4-1 2.12 ERA 34IP 36K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
SS Trea Turner R
DH Max Muncy L
C Will Smith R
3B J. Turner R
CF C. Bellinger L
LF Chris Taylor R
2B Gavin Lux L
Clear-day
0% Rain
68° Wind 8 mph Out
Well something is up with the lack of offense this year. Hard hit balls in the sweet spot are traveling 311 feet this year which is 6 feet fewer than 21. The difference between expected slugging % and the actual slugging % is something never seen in the stat cast era. So maybe? there’s still hope for Bellinger!
Ahhh, you’re catching on!
Maybe! Bellli Maybe!
And look who likes batting lead off!
Kershaw… so much run support.
Dodgers need a shock to the system. Offensively. Bench half the team. Bring up half of AAA. Something. Amazing pitching.
Defibrator to the balls.
This is when you shake shit up.
Diego.
I remember a player I won’t name. For Dodger reasons. Came up with the Braves. He couldn’t buy a beer. His son is now a thing. But it made a difference.
Shake shit up!
Was that a trip into free association practice there Mr. Cobb?
When this team goes a week averaging less than 2 runs a game, free association is all I have.
When your pitchers essentially need to throw no hitters to have a chance to win, something has to change.
Otherwise it will take being in LSD or shrooms just to make the games watchable.
Man these games are just getting harder and harder to watch.
Something Gotta give
Err, Can it be considered a slide what Max Muncy did?
Absolutely dumb base running there Max. Ran the team right out of a rally. Dumb with a capitol D.
The key to the 9th inning was Taylor not moving Bellinger over to third
Then they tried to give us the game and we wouldn’t take it
Agreed. Everyone wants to be a hero.
The incident I am talking about happened in the 6th inning. Muncy walked, Bellinger hit a ball that the second baseman made an error on and instead of stopping at second, Muncy kept going for third and was tagged out by a mile by the catcher covering. The key to the game is the fact they were 1-13 with runners in scoring position. This offense is totally in a funk. Shake it up AF. Send someone down and give a player down there who is actually hitting the ball a shot. Could have retaken first and they blew it. Lux cannot hit lefty’s worth spit. They don’t bunt, they rarely situationally hit. I am really tired of watching lousy at bat after lousy at bat.
I thought that was a bad look, when the camera panned to the dodger dugout and showed Mookie and Alberto yukking it up
Down to our last strike and they’re joking around, I can only imagine what Tommy would’ve done
Bellinger is at least contributing. I have no faith in Max or JT , What to do?
Bench them both.
I agree 100%…..Tommy’s players loved, respected or feared him and he got results!! I don’t think you can say the same for Roberts….
Sort of saw that one coming.
Just curious….
Are the Dodgers the worst team in OT or not? In the era of the “placed runner” they sure seem to have failed a lot.
After a loss like this, I sometimes turn to the farm for consolation.
The good news: OKC, Tulsa and Great Lakes all won. Since moving up to OKC, Amaya is swinging the bat well again.
And there were strong outings from Beeter, Hurt and Lockhart.
This loss is all on Roberts.
Cleveland gift wrapped it for us in the 9th. Why not have Lux put down a bunt vs a tough LHP ? On Sunday he benched a blazing hot Lux because he did not like that matchup. And with the game on the line he likes it better ?
And when you dont like the matchup bring in Barnes to put down the bunt . With Belli on 3rd chances are good we score and win the game.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!
Fire RVS!
It was not RVS who did not order Taylor or Lux to lay down a bunt in the 9th.
I have had enough of Roberts and I dont care about “best record all time, players managers” rahrahrah talk.
The man just makes too many critical mistakes and is not able or willing to shake things up when desperately needed.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It’s time to shake up this hard to watch boring team !!! J T ,Muncy and Taylor are not everyday players anymore. We need to trade for a righthanded power hitting bat ( we do miss Pollack). We need Rios back sooner than later. We need to bring up some minor leaguer position players and give them a chance. If I was AF and ownership I would not be happy with the all or nothing offensive results.
Pollock’s OPS is .695
These nowadays players doesn’t know bunting. Last year our efective bunters were all pitchers.