One-third of the 162 game season is over! The Dodgers are in first place in the NL West, 2.5 games ahead of the San Diego Padres and 5.5 games ahead of the Midgets. It should not be lost on anyone that the Dodgers have had their #1 and their #2 starters perform poorly and that the #3 and #4 starters have been in the IL most of the season. Let me repeat that:
The Dodgers are in First Place while their Top Four Starters have been injured or impaired. The Athletic addressed Walker Buehler’s issues:
“His struggles had centered on a four-seam fastball that was once one of the most dynamic in the majors but instead had been battered whenever he’d throw it this season. The zip appeared to be back Saturday, matching a season-best in terms of velocity. But the command, which has been erratic, and rhythm in his delivery were not.
Buehler hasn’t looked like himself, and has at times faced an ensuing identity crisis with who he is as a pitcher. He expressed surprise that, even after arriving at a lockout-shortened spring training as prepared as any pitcher in camp, he still hasn’t found the right levers to lock his mechanics into place. His release point has dropped as he sought to manipulate the effectiveness of his six-pitch mix. The four-seamer lost some of its dominant characteristics as he became more and more reliant on his cutter. His array of secondary options — a curveball, slider, changeup and two-seamer accompany his primary choices — struggled to replicate the overall dominance that has defined his young career.
“It’s kind of a high-maintenance delivery,” Buehler conceded after his most recent start before Saturday. “Obviously, I’m not 6-6 and 250 pounds. I’m a smaller guy and I’ve got to try to generate (velocity) somehow. There’s mechanics stuff and usage stuff, all these puzzle pieces. But at the end of the day, I just want to be better.”
It has surprised even his manager that those mechanisms would fall so far out of whack.“
However, unlike the Mets Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, Walker is not injured! He can fix his mechanics, over time, but health is a totally different animal. Max Scherzer will be 38 years old next month. Jacob deGrom will be 34 next week. When will they start “breaking down?” They already have! I would not trade Buehler and Urias for deGrom and Scherzer in any solar system. Urias and Buehler will figure it out. Buehler’s mechanics are simply out of whack – well “simply” is not a good word. If it were simple, he would have fixed it already.
Sometimes these things take a Charlie Hough, Rick Honeycutt, Jamey Wright, Dave Borkowski, or Dontrelle Willis to fix. All are still on the Dodgers payroll. Of course Mark Prior and Conner McGinnis are the people he talks to every day, and maybe Rob Hill is looking at it too. Walker Buehler has a 3.84 ERA, which is not good by his standards, but it’s better than Yu Darvish, Aaron Nola, Robie Ray, Kyle Hendricks and many other starting pitchers. I preducxt that it will be under 3.00 by the All-Star Break.
Julio Urias is not far off – he has not been sharp, but his ERA is 2.78. He will be fine. Injuries are worrisome, but mechanics are fixable. Walker knows he is a smaller guy who has to generate power with his mechanics which can be more complex than say, a Bobby Miller who uses his whole body to generate power. As Walker ages, he will become more like Kershaw – he’s not a deGrom. If I were the Mets, I would worry about deGrom and Scherzer. Scherzer has lots of miles on that arm… deGrom has battled injury for 3 years, missing significant time.
Clayton Kershaw, Andrew Heaney and several other pitchers are due back over the next several weeks. Mitch White has stepped up and gets another chance tonight. Tyler Anderson has been a revelation. No one expected this. The pitching will be just fine. The Dodgers are still 1st in ERA in the NL. Everyone else is about a half run a game behind them.
It should also not be lost on anyone that the Dodgers are where they are with Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, and Gavin Lux all OPS’ing below .700. Will Smith is also close to being there as his OPS is .731. At least three of those guys are going to need to figure it out. Mookie Bettes (.975 OPS), Freddie Freeman (.834 OPS), Trea Turner (.821 OPS), and Chris Taylor (.800 OPS) have carried the team, but I think Freeman and Trea will both improve this OPS as the season progresses.
The Dodgers are where they are without a consistent cleanup hitter all year. Gavin Lux has tantalized us several times this year, but .261 with only 8 extra-base hits in 153 AB’s ain’t so good! By comparison, Justin Turner who is hitting .223 has 20 extra base hits. Cody (20 extra base hits) has to improve (at least a little) with the bat, while Smith, Lux, JT, and Max have to improve a lot. Will Smith is really struggling with just 11 extra base hits. Max Muncy also has just 8 extra base hits.
Is there help on the horizon? I guess that Mike Busch and/or Miguel Vargas could get the call, but Busch is certainly not ready and Vargas really needs more time too. The Dodgers could live with a no-hit catcher, but they need better production from 3B and 2B. Max Muncy could be the solution, if he is healthy. It might be month or more before that happens. I have two questions to ask:
- “Are we seeing Justin Turner’s final chapter or will be pull a Mookie Betts and hit his way outta’ this?“
- “Will the Santa Ana winds and hot weather make the balls fly off the Dodger bats?“
If the hitters I mentioned do not get it together, the Dodgers may have to dip into that Farm System and trade some prospects for some players who can hit. Think Miguel Vargas, Landon Knack, Jose Ramos, and Luis Rodriguez for Jose Ramirez. That probably won’t happen, and I’m betting that the abovementioned players will come around… with a quickness!
Thanks Mark for adding the Arizona Complex League and Dominion Summer League Box Scores of the three Dodger teams participating at the top of the page under Dodger Minor League Affiliates for everyone to view.
Interesting notion re Jose Ramirez. Cleveland is now in 2nd place in the AL central, but just under .500, so they seem unlikely to make the playoffs. With more of a June swoon, the bidding for Ramirez could heat up. I do suspect that time is starting to catch up with Justin Turner. Jose Ramirez is a force.
The Dodgers are obviously so good that anything short of a championship would be a disappointment. The team is at the top of the majors in run differential, hitting and pitching. Yet there’s the nagging sense that it isn’t hitting on all cylinders, given the struggles of proven performers like Buhler, Urias and Muncy. Will Belli ever resemble the player he once was? Is Justin Turner over the hill? Why is the 3B and DH production subpar? And even Freddie–why doubles and not more HRs? Thank goodness that Mookie is on an MVP pace–but the offense seems too dependent on him, Freddie, Trea and Will Smith.
So who says no to a deal for JD Martinez? He’d slot into the DH role, batting 4th or 5th, and take ABs away from JT, Muncy and Rios (who I’d be tempted to offer in a deal).
And then there’s the BP. With Treinen out, Kimbrel a bit shaky and Graterol giving up too many runs, David Robertson has to be on AF’s radar. He’s 37, having a great season, and Cubs aren’t going anywhere.
I’m less worried about the starting pitching….unless another injury hits.
Duke, not sure if you know this, but Jose Ramirez just signed an extension through 2028 at a paltry $22M AAV. As a result, there is no way that he will be traded.
I would say no to JD Martinez. With a BABIP well over 450 there’s no where to go but down. He’s got the same problem that Freddie has with doubles and homers and can only play DH, so you’re definitely giving up on JT and Muncy with that move.
The bullpen will be fine when the 6-7 pitchers that are currently on the IL come back. No need to sacrifice prospects for an old former closer that’s having a good 1/3 of a season after two bad ones. That’s basically Kimbrel without the career of dominance and a couple of years older. Duffy, V-Gone, Heaney, Kahnle, May, Treinen are all on the IL and Moronta and Bickford are somehow just hanging out in the minors taking a break.
I don’t know why people still think pitching is a problem with so many good arms off roster at the moment. There’s going to be a roster crunch where you’re going to have to start cutting relievers at some point. Our three worst relievers with at least 10 innings pitched by ERA are…
Graterol 4.81
Kimbrel 4.00
Bickford 3.45
Everyone else is below that. Grateral was in the high 2’s just two innings ago and is leading the team in games and innings pitched, so he might be overused. Kimbrel is turning the corner as he gave up just one hit and 1 baserunner in his last 3 innings.
Vesia, Price and Treinen (who started throwing again) are all in the low three’s and Bruihl, Phillips, Moronta, Hudson, Almonte, Ferguson are all 2.51 or lower. Somehow, Moronta, Bickford and Cleavinger are all in the minors right now.
So, I don’t really think that 37 YO David Robinson is on AF’s radar. I think the guys in the minors and on the IL are on AF’s radar with some cuts coming to make room for those who will be returning from the 60 day at some point.
Kahnle has a bone bruise, so he will be back
V-Gone is rehabbing in AZ after minor elbow surgery, so he’ll be back
Duffy and Treinen have begun throwing programs so they will be back
Dustin May will also be back back at some point and may be forced into the pen with a crowded rotation
That’s a ton of guys to account for without adding another to the mix in a very crowded pitching staff. We’re still about 2 months away from the trade deadline so a lot can change. And remember, the pen would probably have much better results if they didn’t just play 31 games in 30 days.
If the Indians are not going to make the playoffs, I think Ramirez becomes a very profitable trade piece. That’s why I suggested Miguel Vargas, Landon Knack, Jose Ramos, and Luis Rodriguez for Jose Ramirez. It will take a haul, but with 5 more years, it would be worth it. I think it all depends upon what the Indians do over the next 6 weeks.
To Bulldog’s point, there’s nary a chance that the Guardians signed Ramirez to trade him.
Yeah, and Nolan Aernado didn’t sign a contract and get traded either.
You mean the contract extension he signed in 2019 and the trade that occurred in 2021?
Just checking to follow your logic.
The production from the catcher position really isn’t bad. We expect more from Will Smith, but he and Barnes are on a combined pace for 30 HRs and 99 RBIs…. True, those numbers include some pinch-hitting and DH appearances–but the tandem has been solid.
The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of targeting JD Martinez. He’s been an excellent bat for a long time, and he’s having a great season, with an OBP above .400.
Normally I prefer a rotating DH, but given the struggles of JT, Muncy and Belli, someone with Martinez’s track record would be nice to have at cleanup. Boston is playing at about a .500 clip but seem unlikely to make the playoffs. Not sure, but I think JD has an option in his contract that makes a midseason deal more likely. (Devers is intriguing but seems less like to be dealt. There are rumors about Bogaerts but he doesn’t seem like a good fit.)
JD’s contract is up after this year.
He would be a nice piece, but lots of teams will want him – much like Ramirez.
They might ask for Knack and Pages… and I might be inclined to do it!
I agree with you Mark I think the team is in a great position. Walker will figure it out. He is just to talented. I also think Lux is doing exactly what Roberts is asking of him. Get on base anyway you can. Don’t worry about hitting go for power. He is generally hitting in the nine hole and is third on the team in runs scored. And who is the leaders in RBI, it’s Betts, Freeman, and TT. The more he plays this all he stats should go up.
All great point!
J.D.’s power numbers are not that impressive. He only has 5 homers so far. He does have 19 doubles and is hitting .358. Slot him in the 4 hole where those 3 guys can set him up and he would be a force. Escobar hit for the cycle in the Mets win over the Padres. About the least likeliest guy you would expect to do that. Will Smith is only hitting clean up because Turner has not begun to hit on all cylinders.
Every year, the same thing. One third of the way through the season and fans are either in full panic mode or trading the farm. The deadline is in August this season. The second I think. By the All Star break I think we will know where the holes are. Kershaw is rejoining the team in Chicago and is on schedule to maybe start against the Giants in SF. Muncy is just beginning his rehab and Heaney is due to pitch in maybe a couple more games in the minors before a decision is made on him. I agree with Mark about Lux. The talent is there, and he obviously is no outfielder. But the lack of power is a concern. If Muncy is healthy, he will get that job back. Impressed with Alvarez’s athleticism. The guy has some obvious skills. A switch hitting second baseman seems like a nice fit.
What are the odds this is the team in August?
1. Betts RF
2. Freeman 1B
3. T. Turner SS
4. Martinez DH
5. Ramirez 3B
6. Muncy 2B
7. Taylor LF
8. Bellinger CF
9. Smith C
Bench: Lux, J-Turner, Barnes, Alvarez
Rotation:
1. Buehler
2. Urias
3. Kersaw
4. Gonsolin
5. Anderson
6. Heaney
Bullpen:
1. Kahnle
2. Gonzalez
3. Hudson
4. May
5. Duffy
6. Almonte
7. Kimbrel
That leaves off Phillips, Price, Vesia, White, Moronta, Grove, Graterl, Bickford, and Bruihl
No Muncy. If you think he is good enough for the Dodgers then he has trade value. Go crazy and add Gleyber to that lineup.
Story today said Muncy may not be totally healthy until 23. That alone lowers his value in a trade considerably. Yanks are not trading Gleyber. Quit dreaming.
And still a better chance than the Indians trading Ramirez.
If that’s the case with Muncy, just 60 day him now and call up Vargas. Crash course.
Bear, then you agree with me about Muncy not being in the lineup that Mark produced?
Bear, knock off the fatherly advice. You were way off with Lux and now you are an expert as to whether Gleyber will be traded? I said go crazy which is not the same as saying Gleyber is coming to the Dodgers any more than saying Ramirez is.
Tell Mark to stop dreaming.
I don’t think Muncy is going to be much help at all. If they trade, I would bet the house that Torres or Ramirez won’t be coming to LA. And the Yanks have absolutely no reason to trade Torres. He has been playing better and I will give you even a better reason, he is only 25 years old. Miss on Lux? What has he done that is so special? If he were playing second every game, hitting left handers and making plays maybe. But the guy so far is in my opinion, not living up to his hype. Fatherly advice? Are you a child that you need some? Anything anyone here says is an opinion, You gave yours, I just happen to think you are in a cloud that is really made up of smog.
You are making this personal. That usually is a weak response.
Stick with history. You are good with that.
The odds are Zero!
Ramirez has less of a chance at being traded than Soto. He just renewed his contract at a team friendly $22M AAV deal. Better chance that A-Rod comes out of retirement with Man-Ram to fill holes at 3B and DH.
I would argue that makes him more valuable and thus… more tradeable… for a big return. If the Indians struggle (and they will), Ramirez will not want to go through another rebuild.
I don’t think you really believe that. By signing the contract in the first place he showed he’s willing to become the guy they rebuild around. He’s only two months into the contract!
Of course, zero %.
It’s only 1/3 of the way into the season. The team has had lots of injuries. The team has a few regulars and pitchers who are not performing up to their capabilities. With Urias and Buehler having mechanic issues and not injuries they have plenty of time to get back on track. The relievers you have listed only one (Hudson) has performed well. The others have been either injured or lousy. I expected Ferguson to be an important part of the BP along with Graterol, Bickford, and Phillips. Maybe, Vesia. These trade proposals are fun to imagine, but I don’t see AF trading for any of the players mentioned above. Let the players play and, if necessary, bring up some of the prospects (position players) for an opportunity to display their talents. The Dodgers have approximately three months to see what’s what with the team and the minor league prospects. If there is a need at the trade deadline then we can expect AF to make whatever or whoever is necessary to fill that need.
Carry on.
2 months until the trade deadline, but still a lot is going to change between then and now.
Odds are less than zero.
To begin with 3 of the bullpen guys you have might not even make it back at all this year (Kahnle, VGon, Duffy).
Ramirez has a full no trade clause in his new contract.
Martinez is getable but the competition will be fierce and I don’t think AF would be high bidder.
I think that 2 of the 3 will make it. Just not sure which 2…
I am not advocating any trades at this juncture – the Dodgers need to look inward first and see who gets healthy and who doesn’t. However, I could see Cleveland taking a dive and deciding to rebuild. Bieber is not happy, and between Ramirez, Bieber, and another vet or two, they could do a solid rebuild. Ramirez would not like to be there if Bieber is gone.
Today, Ramirez wants to be in Cleveland, but I believe they will be forced to rebuild. Ramirez loves Cleveland, and maybe Ramirez will want to stay… but things change.
As far as trades go, it’s going to be a really weird year since there’s so many teams that will make the playoffs even more in the hunt. Thank God they only added two more teams to the playoff mix. The playoffs will consist of 3 division winners in each league, then the next three teams with the best records. If the season ended today, the playoffs would look like this…
Mets and Dodgers with a buy in the first round.
Brewers will be the other division winner and will play the worst record in the first round.
Pads, Cards and Giants are wildcard teams and the Braves, Phillies and Pirates are all in striking distance from a WildCard.
In the AL, the Yankees and Houston are in BUY round
The Twins are the other Division winner
The Blue Jays, Red Sox and Rays are wildcards and the Indians, White Sox, Angels, Rangers and Mariners are all in striking distance.
This leaves the following teams as sellers and their position players that have an OPS over 750 with 100 ABs…
A’s – Not a single hitter with an OPS over 750
Tigers – Harold Castro SS .779
Royals – Andrew Benintendi LF .799
Orioles – Trey Mancini OF/DH .814 and Austin Hays LF .802
Reds – Brandon Drury 3B, 821 – Tyler Stephenson C, 821 – Tyler Naquin RF, 775 – Kyle Farmer SS, 756
Cubs – Wilson Contreras C, 916 – Ian Happ LF, 822 – Patrick Wisdom 3B, 787 – Seiya Suzuki RF, 776
Nats – Juan Soto RF, 831 – Josh Bell 1B, 802
Rockies – CJ Cron 1B, 906 – Yonathan Daza CF, 768 – Connor Joe DH, 759 – Jose Iglesias SS, 753
D-Backs – David Peralta LF, 768 – Christian Walker 1B, 764 – Daulton Varsho CF, 752
Slim Pickins indeed. Now lets take away guys with 2 year remaining on their contract or arbitration…
Royals – Andrew Benintendi LF .799
Orioles – Trey Mancini OF/DH .814
Reds – Brandon Drury 3B, 821 – Tyler Naquin RF, 775
Cubs – Wilson Contreras C, 916 – Ian Happ LF, 822
Nats – Josh Bell 1B, 802
Rockies – CJ Cron 1B, 906 – Jose Iglesias SS, 753
D-Backs – David Peralta LF, 768
That’s pretty much what you’re gonna be left with as far as position players go. So Josh Bell or CJ Cron at DH, Benintendi, Trey Mancini, Ian Happ in Left Field with CT3 moving to 3B and career year Brandon Drury at 3B look like the choices right now.
VERY SLIM PICKINS! Stop Dreaming.
I like Andrew Benintendi.. a lot.
Let him be what he is: a leadoff hitter.
Could Mookie move to another spot or is hitting #1 his identity?
This would make the lineup “longer”:
1. Benintendi LF
2. T-Turner SS
3. Freeman 1B
4. Betts RF
5. Martinez DH
6. Muncy/Turner 3B
7. Bellinger CF
8. Taylor 2B
9. Smith C
I’m just spitballin’….
I’d almost rather have Josh Bell at DH that JD. That 468 Babip scares me off from JD. I’d like to monitor another month and see if he’s really gonna hit 400! 😉
Craig Kimbrel Placed On the Paternity List, Phil Bickford Returns
Blah!
I didn’t know he was pregnant?
It does explain some recent difficulties.
Are you trying to say that men can’t get pregnant?
Not sure anymore.
8:10 PM ET
Dodgers (35-19)
White Sox (25-27)
SP Mitch White R
1-1 4.79 ERA 20.2IP 22K
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
SS Trea Turner R
C Will Smith R
3B J. Turner R
CF C. Bellinger L
DH Eddy Alvarez S
LF Chris Taylor R
2B Gavin Lux L
Partly-cloudy-day
0% Rain
63° Wind 5 mph In
Craig Kimbrel Placed On the Paternity List, Phil Bickford Returns
Angels fired Maddon and placed Phil Nevin in as the interim manager.
They should have fired Moreno and replaced him with the Village Idiot!
Mr. Timmons,
I’d like a word with you.
Sincerely,
Village Idiot
It’s a moron franchise.
They will lose Ohtani soon , and perhaps even Trout.
I will never understand why they didn’t sign Ryu when we let him walk as a free agent?
Dear Mr. Idiot,
Sorry if I offended you, but ___________ you if I did!
Looking at stats, concerning the pitching, specifically the bullpen, Justin Bruihl, Brusdar Graterol, Phil Bickford all have problems getting outs on one side of the plate, not only this year but also their career. I believe all 3 guys have options. Who to bring up if optioning those 3 guys? I don’t know I’d have to look at stats to figure that out.
David Price has been a bust since acquiring him.
On the plus side of the bullpen Daniel Hudson, Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, Yency Almonte have all been good this year, but each one of them have their flaws.
Daniel Hudson has had a better than average career, but I wouldn’t consider him a lock down reliever. Although so far this year he has been.
Evan Phillips has had an average career with reverse splits and so far this year the same is true with reverse splits.
Alex Vesia has trouble getting right handed batters out but he is very good vs left handed batters both in his career and this year.
Yency Almonte has had a below average career but to be fair he pitched in that thin air in Colorado all his career except this year.
And then there is Craig Kimbrel who has had a great career but this year so far has been just better than average. He has not been lock down so far this year.
But then there is Blake Treinen who is on the injured list. Hopefully he gets back this year. He has had a solid career but has had an average career against left handed batters although he has turned that around the last 2 years.
Eric,
Glad to see you getting back into the arena. You go…!!!
Thank you Mark. I’ve been feeling a little bit better so I’ve been posting a little bit. Thank you again.
As for starting pitchers.
Clayton Kershaw has great career stats and is off to a great start this year but is on the injured list.
Walker Beuhler has great career stats but is off to a terrible start this year.
Julio Urias has solid career stats but is just a little better than average so far this year.
Tony Gonsolin has great career stats except last year when he was injured but ended up with better than average stats while injured and is having a great year so far this year. Probably my favorite Dodger pitcher.
Tyler Anderson has below average career stats but is having a solid year so far this year.
Andrew Heaney has below average career stats, slightly better than average against left handed batters and below average against right handed batters. With 10.1 innings so far this year, a small sample due to being on the injured list, he has great stats so far this year.
I was too hard on Walker Buehler with my wording. He has below average stats so far this year, not terrible stats.
I’m going by OPS against stats that tells you a lot more than other stats do and a little bit more than WHIP my second favorite stat.
Since Mitch White is starting today and has started a few times this year he actually has solid career stats but so far this year is just slightly better than average. So far this year below average against right handed batters and great against left-handed batters. Reverse splits.
I think I need to watch Gavin Stone pitch.
So far today, 4ip, 9k. His Tulsa ERA is .45
Make that 5ip, 11k
Make that 6ip, 13k
Like a TV informercial, “But wait, there’s more!”.
He’s coming on strong, but 92 pitches in 6 innings.
Two Gavins on Dodgers sounds good.
I guess since there are 4 straight right handed batters coming up Bickford is an ok decision to go with. There’s better options. And of course David Price sucks again.
What the hell is David Price doing pitching in a situation like this. I’d only use him in blowout situations.
Is it time to DFA David Price yet?
Yes it’s been over time.
Well, he pitched so badly that at least we can say he injured his arm.
Stick a fork in David Price. He is done.
What a waste of a Mitch White great start. Shame on Doc here. I am seeing the TBS broadcast and RDarling said it that Tony LaRussa
eat the candy of Doc here. Does he really forgot about Pollock?
Strange that doc went with Justin Bruihl with three right handed batters coming up. Maybe he has determined this game is over. Yes it worked but if he is still trying to win this game strange decision.
That’s right the soxs have Hendriks. Doc probably determined this game is over.
Curses… foiled agan!
White was great. Pitched his way out of that jam in the 5th like a champ. I thought that would have earned him another inning. Head scratcher after that.
Disappointing.
At least we aren’t the Angels. 12 game losing streak is a symptom of a larger problem. Joe Madden seemed shocked but not at all upset. Mentioned he took a bike ride and is playing golf in the morning. I think that org is even more dysfunctional than I thought. And I already thought it was quite dysfunctional. What a train wreck.
@Eric, your comments tonight have been the comfort zone of the evening. I am cheerful you are pointing in the right direction.
Thank you Fallito.
So much for being a great fastball hitting team! Maybe we can let the guys hit against Buehler’s fastball!
4 pitches by David Priceless( I should say worthless) and game over. He is a perfect candidate to be DFA. He is taking up a much needed spot in an overworked bullpen.
Price is done.
DFA him and bring up Cleavinger for LHP relief.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!