For several years, Dodger fans complained about the Dodgers bullpen… or lack thereof of one. Maybe a lot of their ire was directed (unfairly) at one Kenley Jansen, but I think that many Dodger Fans believe that in the past Andrew Friedman simply did not value the bullpen and therefore did not build good bullpens. I beg to differ. The Dodgers’ bullpen has never been as bad as fans have stated, but it also is true that Andrew Friedman is evolving in the way he and the Dodgers build a bullpen. Let’s look back at how the Dodgers bullpen ranked for all of MLB by year in ERA under Andrew Friedman:
- 2021 – 3.16 #2
- 2020 – 2.74 #2
- 2019 – 3.95 #5
- 2018 – 3.72 #8
- 2017 – 3.38 #4
- 2016 – 3.38 #1
- 2015 – 3.91 #19
Of course, 2015 was Andrew’s first year as the President of Baseball Operations for the Los Angeles Dodgers and he had roster issues caused by “The Trade” and bad management in the years before 2014. He had Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, and smoke and mirrors: Brett Anderson, Carlos Frias, Alex Wood, Mike Bolsinger, Brandon McCarthy, Matt Latos, and Ian Thomas (remember him?). Without solid, innings-eating starters, the bullpen, outside of Kenley Jansen and JP Howell sucked. The Dodgers were finished that year in the NLDS.
In 2016, the starters changed as Zach Greinke left for Desert Pastures and Kenta Maeda was signed. The rest of the rotation consisted of Scott Kazmir, Ross Stripling, Julio Urias, Alex Wood, Bud Norris (yep!), Brandon McCarthy, Mike Bolsinger, Rich Hill, and Brock Stewart. The bullpen was better with Kenley, Joe Blanton, Pedro Baez, Chris Hatcher (belch), and Grant Dayton, in fact, it was #1 in all of baseball, but that was an anomaly. The Dodgers were knocked out of the playoffs in the NLCS.
Then in 2017, the starting rotation improved and was Kershaw, Wood, Hill, Maeda, Ryu, McCarthy, Stripling, Darvish, Stewart, and Urias. The bullpen was led by Jansen, Stripling, Baez, Fields, Tony Watson, Tony Cingrani, Brandon Morrow, and Luis Avilan. Of course, we know that the ASS-TROS beat them in the 2017 World Series, but the improvement was obvious.
I think that after last season, lots of fans think that Friedman was pushing all the buttons, but the opposite was true. While Friedman was the boss, Farhan Zaidi was largely responsible for many of the position player acquisitions, as well as the bullpen acquisitions, including Romo, Fields, Ravin. Morrow, Chavez, Norris, Goeddal, Venditte, Kolarek, and others all had connections to Zaidi. I am not saying that is a bad thing or trying to diminish Zaidi’s expertise. I’m just saying… Farhan had a hand in most player acquisitions. Friedman and Zaidi were also buddies, so I am sure that most player decisions were discussed pretty deeply between themselves and other staff.
Since Farhan has left, I would say that 2022 is the first bullpen that is close to 100% built by Andrew Friedman (without Zaidi) since Kenley Jansen also left over the Winter to sign with the Braves. This is Friedman’s bullpen. Well, Josh Brynes has a hand in it too. Andrew Friedman’s imprimatur is stamped all over this team in so many ways. Andrew Friedman has certainly evolved because this bullpen is very deep and very eclectic!
The starters are as follows:
- Buehler
- Urias
- Kershaw
- Heaney (That signing is looking pretty good right about now)
- Gonsolin
- Bauer (TBD)
Bullpen Pieces
- Bickford – Waivers
- Bruhl – Amateur Free Agent
- Cleavinger – Trade
- Duffy – Trade
- Ferguson – 2014 Draft (so I guess he is a holdover)
- Gonzalez – Amateur Free Agent (2012 – another holdover)
- Graterol – Trade
- Grove – Draft (2016)
- Hudson – Free Agent
- Jackson – Draft (2017)
- Kahnle – Free Agent
- Nelson – Free Agent
- Phillips – Waiver Pickup
- May – Draft (2016)
- Nunez – Amateur Free Agent
- Treinen – Free Agent
- Vesia – Trade
- Kimbrel – Trade
- Anderson – Free Agent
- White – Draft (2016)
- Price – Trade
Yes, some have varying forms of injuries and not all are already to pitch. One or two may not even pitch this year, but Friedman has plenty of arms. He doesn’t need them all. He also has Miller, Pepiot, Beeter, Knack, and several other live arms in the pipeline. Most are not likely to see action THIS year, but you never know. I think that Andrew has figured out that you can never have too many bullpen arms, so his motto is “Buy ’em Cheap, and Stack ’em Deep!“
Is Farhan Zaidi a better talent evaluator than Andrew Friedman? Well, we may never know, because since he and Farhan came to the Dodgers AF, did not need to be. The question we should ask is “Who is the better President of Baseball Operations?” A President of Baseball Operations’ job is not to just evaluate talent, but rather to organize, manage and grow the operation.
Andrew Friedman has the better overall record with seasons dating back to the Tampa Rays where they competed with payrolls under $40 Million. However, in 2021, Zaidi put together the best season ever (in terms of wins) for the Giants – EVER! It’s like comparing Kershaw and Koufax – Zaidi had a monster year, but Friedman was better longer. I don’t have an opinion – I think both are pretty damn good as talent evaluators. At this juncture, I think that Friedman is a more experienced leader, but I would urge anyone never to count out Farhan.
The Giants are also off to a great start (tied for first with the Dodgers), but if you went up and down their lineup, at which positions would you choose a Giants player over one of the Dodgers?
- C- Smith or Bart?
- 1B – Freeman or Belt?
- 2B – Lux or LaStella?
- SS – Turner or Crawford?
- 3B – Longoria (when healthy) or Turner?
- LF – Pederson/Ruf or Taylor?
- CF – Bellinger or Duggar/Slater?
- RF – Betts or Yas?
From the top-to-the-bottom of the lineup, the Dodgers are dramatically better. Yet, the Giants have the same record. The Dodgers are #2 in Runs Score in MLB while the Giants are #13. The Giants are #1 in team ERA (2.20) while the Dodgers are #2 (2.28). You have to admire the fact that the Giants are a bunch of Junkyard Dogs. I don’t think they can keep it up, but I thought the same thing last year. At any rate, it should be fun.
Mark I truly marvel at how gifted you are at writing. God has blessed you so much.
Nice article, Mark
Can’t wait for tonight…great storylines abound…two in particular I will be watching with great interest…..
1. Jansen v Kimbrel
2. Freddie v Olsen
Bonus 3. Ozuna v Bauer (just having fun)
Go LA….
TM
PS
And of course, Braves v Dodgers…..revenge!
The pitching staff as a whole is incredibly deep this year. I’m particularly impressed with the Andrew Heaney experiment, but realize it’s just two games into the season. Heaney is going to make a lot of money after this season if he keeps this up.
The most incredible thing here is that this is arguably the best pitching staff in baseball top to bottom. Yes, they’re second in ERA to the Giants, but the Dodgers opened in Colorado and the Giants have played more home games in a very pitcher friendly environment. On top of that, the Dodgers have some better pitchers that haven’t played yet this season. The difference in ERA is just 4 more innings pitched by the Giants against the same number of earned runs allowed. The Dodgers are second in ERA, but tops in WHIP and Avg.
Andrew also had the foresight to see that this season would need a lot of pitchers due to covid lasting effects from a short season, followed by a long season, followed by a condensed season. He built this staff according with a lot of pitchers available in due time.
With the new DH rule, it looks like a deeper roster of position players less important when you have players that are versatile enough to play several positions. Managing a roster during the game has never been a strong point for Doc and the simple AL style of play really helps the Dodgers. Doc is now almost invisible since he no longer has the need to make double switches and no longer has the ability to constantly swap out pitchers for a perceived split advantage due to the three batter rule.
In the early going, it’s nice to see the Dodgers do something different with the offense. They aren’t as reliant on the HR so far, ranking in the bottom third in that category. The homers will come, but right now they’re finding other ways to score runs with the 4th highest team batting average in the league and the third highest OBP. But, a very pleasant surprise is leading MLB in stolen bases against just one caught stealing.
It’s early in the season, as they will be playing just their 10th game tonight. Both the Giants and Dodgers are leading baseball, tied for the best record overall. The Giants have played 6 games at home to day, while the Dodgers have played 4. Big tests begin tonight for both teams as the Giants will be playing a hot Mets team in their yard, while the Dodgers continue at home against the World Champions.
BullPen I couldn’t agree with you more about Doc’s new role as a in-game manager. Maybe we’re premature but I love his reduced presents so far. For all the reasons you stated. The focus is on the players, in predictable lineups and not Doc. Very nice change and just what II’d hoped.
Giants continue to do where they left off last season. Incredible clutch hitting and timely pitching.
Again they are playing way above their indiviual talents.
This NL West is as tough division, just like the AL East.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
At what point in the Giants success will it be accepted they are this good and well constructed and not “playing above their talents”?
Probably in 5-6 years when the back of the baseball card matches what they have done….they are playing over their heads.
I doubt you would ever get Dodger fans to admit the Giants are good at all. I think one thing Faidi has proven is that he is very adept at getting players who fit on his ball club. Kapler has been excellent at mixing and matching his lineup. And those guys have shown a flair for the dramatic late game comebacks. Bart is not Posey, we know that, and both Belt and Crawford are getting older by the minute. So far, their patchwork pitching staff has held up. Most of that team is on short term contracts. They have their ace, Webb, Rodon, Wood, DeSclafani, and Cobb. So their starting staff has had some MLB success. But a majority of their roster is getting a little long in the tooth. I am not sure where their farm system is ranked, but I will say this, if one of their big stars has a major injurie, replacing him will not be easy. TM, I doubt the Dodgers are out for revenge against the Braves. They did to them in 2020 what the Braves did last year. And the Dodger team was really banged up heading into the playoffs. Had they been totally healthy, I, and most others have to believe the outcome would have been very different.
I think they’re good, but we are better. Belt isn’t this good and Betts isn’t this bad. Pederson is currently OPS’n over 1.000. We will win 100, they won’t.
That said, Dodgers and giants, how it oughta be.
* Orel repeated the decades old theory yesterday, that a drawn in infield increases a batter’s average by 100 points. I have heard the 100 point claim all my life and sad it many times. As a shortstop, I hated playing in. But a 100 points? Back in the day, we had no way to check that. I bet they can now. I’d be interested to know how hitters fare with the infield in (not half way)
* I didn’t know Hearney before but I like him. He gets so many swings and misses on that sweeper, out of the zone. It will be interesting, going forward, to see if more disciplined hitters can spit on that pitch and make him pitch in the zone more. Tough task, as well as he hides it. He doesn’t need the change up as long as they keep hacking at that sweeper. But 2 pitch starters need an awesome swing and miss pitch. I like what I’ve see from him.
* Call Adult Protective Services. How does David Bell leave Mahle in to give up a 7 spot, top of the 5th? Get the poor kid outta there. What, he’s saving pitching for the Padres? Brutal.
* Jim Reynolds was horseshit behind the dish. I know it was a blow out and I could agree with an expanded zone, but he had no zone at all. He really struggles with left handed pitches, glove-side, low @ away. He’s flipping coins. He misses way too many strikes. Throw the hammer Jimbo.
* Joe Davis had a story about the fan yelling at Bellinger that he needs to be confident. No shit Sherlock. That’s pretty easy to say but extremely hard to do. When you’re struggling, what the hell can you be confident about. You can kid yourself and be delusional but the reality is there’s not much to be confident about. You work and hope and success breeds confidence. I admire his continued work during all this.
There’s a great article on that.
https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2019/05/03/the-effectiveness-of-infield-in-defense/
So Bum said he would trade Bellinger for Buxton.
Anybody else interested in that deal?
According to the baseball trade value site, Dodgers would have to throw in a player like Amaya or Nastrini to even make the trade nearly considerable….
Thanks Bluto. Just what I was looking for.
No problem
Congrats to Trea on a nice hitting streak. Start another tonight. Freeman is as advertised, a professional hitter, but I was also impressed with that slick 3-1 double play. Will Smith bobblehead night, so if you are going, get out there early. Hope everyone had a great Easter. Went and visited my brother in the re-hab center. He should be coming home next weekend. Cali is as over-priced as I thought it would be. 5.65 for a gallon of gas yesterday at the SInclair station. AM/PM a lot cheaper at 5.25. Makes 3.92 look pretty good.
I don’t write it nearly enough:
Thank you Mark, Bear, Patch, B and P, philjones and others.
With all of the negative news out there this site is a real treat on a daily basis.
Your time and talents, your knowledge and insights, and your creative and provocative comments are very much appreciated!
Thanks Ray! Although I try, I don’t think I’m nearly the provocateur that Mark is.
Thanks Ray. I try to analyze and discuss stuff from a player/coach way of thinking. I hope folks enjoy that.
Excellently put Mark. Bullpens might be the most misunderstood aspect of baseball.
Fans often forget that 90% of the time (or more) bullpens are inconsistent. It’s far more rare to have a consistent bullpen than not. Pitchers are often creatures of habit. Most pitchers aren’t good enough to be starters. But starting has advantages. Typically consistent days off (plenty of rest) and the starters know at least a few days ahead of time when they will be called upon.
Relievers have much less consistency. They are expected to be available whenever called upon. Not knowing if they will pitch on any given day or which inning they will be thrown in. They are expected to potentially pitch on back to back days or only on one day of rest. It’s a very hard job. Which is, of course, why consistent relievers (year in and year out) are a hot commodity.
Kenley spoiled us for a few years. He was simply unbelievably good. When he became mortal again he became the focus of a lot of ridicule among fans. Which I also believe was unwarranted. I don’t know if the Dodgers could have done a better job than they have in the past few years.
Kenley was great from 2012-2017. Pretty good after that. In his great period, you can use him 3-4 days in a row and for more than 3 outs. After that you had to handle him with kid gloves.
He never learned to be a complete pitcher. He always has had problems holding runners, got spooked with a man on second and his velocity varied wildly from game to game in the last few years. It was time to move on.
I do not believe his ridicule was unwarranted when the team had to move on from him in critical situations like closing out the World Series against the Rays and blowing back to back games against your biggest foe while fighting them for first place right after the All-Star break. I for one am glad he moved on and I’m hoping for the next great Dodgers closer to show himself in the coming years.
I want to be clear that I’m not saying that Kenley wasn’t great, once upon a time. But, he wasn’t great the last few.
Kenley Jansen was with the Dodgers for 12 years.
He went 37-26 with 350 Saves, a 2.37 ERA, and a 0.928 WHIP.
From 2018 to 2020, he had an ERA in the 3.00’s.
Last year it was 2.22, and every other year it was in the 0, 1, or 2’s!
Name the last reliever other than Mariano Rivera who even approaches such numbers and longevity!
No only do I think Kenley was Damn good, but I believe he is a Hall-of-Famer!
Craig Kimbrel, and I didn’t even have to think that hard.
Well, you didn’t think. That is the problem. Kimbrell had 2 years with a 5 and 6 ERA, where he completely lost it. Jansen never has. Oh, he has had some bad games, but Kimbrell has had some REALLY bad years… including half of last year!
You have to find another pitcher because Kimbrel ain’t it!
BTW Mark, the reason I ended the post with this sentence…
I want to be clear that I’m not saying that Kenley wasn’t great, once upon a time. But, he wasn’t great the last few.
Was because I’m acknowledging that Kenley was great from 2012-2017 as I said in my first sentence. So, we don’t have to argue if he was great at one point in time. Let’s step away from the stats a little bit and just look at awards for a second…
Trevor Hoffman – MVP Votes in 5 different years, 4 top 6 CY finishes, 7x All Star.
Mariano – 13x All Star, I’m not even going to count up all those MVP and CY finishes.
John Whetteland – 4x MVP votes, 3x All Star, 1 top 6 Cy Young.
Kimbrel – 8x All Star, 5 top 9 CY, 3 x MVP Votes.
Kenley – 3x All Star, 1 Top 5 CY, 1 MVP Vote and a ROY
He’s got a long ways to go to get into the HOF. He’s more along the same lines as a John Whetteland than a Mariano Rivera, Craig Kimbrel or Trevor Hoffman.
See, the biggest issue at play here is the fact that you remember every one of Kenley’s Bad Games, because he played with one team: Your team. Kimbrell has been with 5 teams and has had several better seasons than Jansens best seasons. However, Jansen has never had seasons as bad as Kimbrells 2 worst seasons. Not even close.
In my opinion, Jansen has been more consistent.
Couple of Things:
1. Would anyone actually take any of the Giants everyday position players over the Dodgers?
2. Gavin Lux is making me turn my head. He has been VERY, VERY Good!
As a whole Dodgers 2022 lineup has no equal in the game….ever! There is no flat spots. Every batter is dangerous and all will only improve. There’s some secret shit the pitchers have all bought in to that other teams have no idea what that shit might really be but I’m certain they’re looking hard; You can’t take anything away from this assortment. AF tinkered something extremely amazing that cost more than any crippling budget of his past but it turns out to be $ well spent. And luck plays a part as well as personalities have to align in abstract. I’m just now seeing these things and am mind blown. If injuries can be avoided I really believe 120+ wins is not out of reach. It’s magic.
Yes.
For CF and 1B, I’d take Mays and McCovey…. but I guess you mean right now.
So… Nope. And I don’t think it’s really close.
But I’d take Brandon Belt as DH. His slugging % in the 20-22 timeframe has been .600, which is higher than Tatis, Soto, Harper, JRam, Guerrero…
Who knew?
When will Bobby Miller pitch again at Tulsa?
Have not seen hin in the box scores for a week.
Go Dodgers!
tomorrow
Love the “cheap and deep”! Brilliant line! And so true and there is obviously also the ability in the Dodger organization that helps players improve their performances. Top to bottom just a great organization. Well done AF! And we’ll see if Farhan is able to build and maintain a minor league system comparable to the Dodgers. Time will tell
I also believe that the good game of SF is not only luck, obviously there is also a lot of talent in batting and pitching, they have men and not just names. I like them, I hope they continue to play very well, to make it a more interesting season, we need to revive the rivalry, the true rivalry
But still they are despicable, huh?
Here’s more on Rayne Doncon:
https://www.dodgers2080.com/dodgers-prospects-shortstop-rayne-doncon-is-making-waves/
Hey Bear, I know you’re in town.
If you’re free Wednesday, the Dodgers play the Braves at 12pm. Please take my 2 tickets and go have some fun! Mark can give you my email or phone number. I’ll have to email the tickets to you, as all tic are digital nowadays.
Way to go Bobby! You the man!
I might even throw in a Famous Star?
LOL!!
That was a very nice gesture (the tix. Not entirely the Carl’s). Kudos.
I can let you know tomorrow. I really appreciate it. I have just been pretty busy since I got here.
Bobby, I really appreciate the gesture. I cannot make it. I have to take a class to help my brother with his physical therapy. Maybe some other time. Thank you so very much. I am just swamped this week.
Notice the New DODGER DASHBOARD?
Some cool new sites there, including Jeff’s!
Nice job Mark. Like the new dashboard!
Looks good! You have the Think Blue Planning Committee up there now. I kind of like that blog. Found it by accident.
Is Scott Andes still around?
I’m not in agreement at all with all you Giants lovers. I think they are an overachieving club, I will give them that. But, like Mark pointed out, there isn’t a single player in their lineup that I would swap for ours. Not one single position player.
I guess I have a better memory than most here after going through the platoon team building philosophy. They’re off to a hot start and they will win their fair share of games with good pitching. But, their lineup is lacking and it will show at some point. I said this last year, and they were much better than I expected. Fool me once, fool me twice i guess, but I’m doubling down anyways.
The main reason? I just don’t see how a bunch of old guys that had career years last year are going to be able to do it again.
I’m not going to analyze them one by one, but I will say this. Posey is gone after having a career year and Bart will not completely fill those shoes. Brandon Crawford OPS’d close to 900 last year after never OPSing over 800 ever. Those were their top two players and they don’t have answers that will put up that kind of production this year.
The pitching staff is solid, but none of them have a long track record of success. Logan Webb is their ACE and had a good season, just shy of 150 IP. Rodon finally put up 131 innings of his over hyped career and after that it falls off quite a bit. The pitching starved Angels couldn’t wait to dump Cobb and DeScalfani faded a bit at the end of last year after a very hot start. Their entire rotation is full of sinker / slider guys that don’t light up the gun except for Rodon. I just don’t see their rotation holding up as well as last year either.
I admire your dedication to your beliefs. Even after losing a bet and coughing up 20 bucks you still hold true to the “the Giants are just lucky” line. Your faith is as unshakable as Badger’s devotion to CNN.
Luck is a five game winning streak. When a team wins 107 games over the course of a season and starts the next season 7-2 you have to start thinking maybe it’s a little more than luck. Maybe they’re just good.
They don’t have mashers on that club, but they do get timely hitting to go along with great pitching and solid defense. They don’t have the names that the Dodgers have, but they do get more out of less.
Rodon has wicked stuff. Webb is already an ace. Their pitching staff is legit.
Zaidi has done a great job! I think he’s a better GM than AF.
Bleh, reading this made me vomit a little. Go ahead and keep bragging about winning a 20 spot by 1 game and a blown call and the worst year of injuries ever. I look at their positions players and think, meh. I look at their staff and think solid, not great. I don’t judge any team after 9 games. Webb is an ace after one partial season? Are you new to baseball? Why not let him have one single season with a sub 3 ERA before throwing that word around.
I asked if you wanted to make the same bet this year and got air back. So keep yapping. That 20 bucks must have really meant something to make you a such a Giants fan. I spent more on dog toys this morning.
Webb’s FIP last year was 2.72. Just sayin’ 😉
Your bet was that the Dodgers would be in 1rst by the end of the month. I think they will be, too, so I declined that bet (Besides. I don’t want to be rooting against the Dodgers for a measly 20 bucks). However, I did offer to take you up on your claim that the Giants will wind up in 3rd or 4th place. I think they’re better than that and they’ll give the Dodgers a hard time and come in 2nd.
I’m sorry this became long. I was originally replying to BulldogsandPenguins response to my comment on Kenley Janson. I had a lunch break so I went ahead and did a quick and dirty analysis: which got out of control.
Either way. I’m attempting to make a point on this subject which has bothered me for many years. As fans we often don’t understand just how good a player is. Largely because we watch them SO much. We see all their faults. Not just their great performances on SportsCenter.
BulldogsandPenguins analysis of Kenley is accurate. However, I don’t believe the level of criticism is fair. The ups and downs Kenley experienced in his career with the Dodgers were not abnormal among the greatest closers in the games history. What was abnormal was just how good he was when he was at his peak. He was extraordinarily good. His peak seasons were some of the most dominant by any relief pitcher in the past two generation. He had a seven year stretch with a WHIP below 1 for all but one of those 7 years (2012 through 2017). The worst WHIP he had in that period was 1.10. You could count on one hand the number of closers who have every had a 7 year stretch like that in the last 20 years (or longer, but I limited this to the last 20 years).
Here is an analysis I ran using Frangraphs.com . These statistics are from 2002 to 2022 for relieve pitchers.
WAR leaders among relief pitchers (last 20 years).
1. Mariano Rivera
2. Kenley Jansen
3. Aroldis Chapman
4. Joe Nathan
5. Craig Kimbrel
Lowest WHIP (last 20 years).
Kenley Janson ranks 5th
Billy Wagner, Mariano Rivera and Graig Kimbrel are 7th, 8th and 9th respectively.
% of inherited runners left on base (last 20 years).
1. Ardolis Chapman
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. John Smoltz
4. Carson Smith
5. Kenley Janson
Mariano Rivera ranks 10th.
Strikeout % (last 20 years).
1. Josh Hader
2. Craig Kimbrel
3. Ardolis Chapman
4. Delin Betances
5. Edwin Diaz
6. Kenley Janson
Mariano Rivera ranks 10th.
Blown Save % (past 20 years).
Mariano Rivera: 10%
Craig Kimbrel: 11%
Kenley Janson: 12%
Joe Nathan: 12%
Aroldis Chapman: 12%
Trevor Hoffman: 12%
Billy Wagner: 14%
Edwin Diaz: 16%
Mark Melancon: 16%
Francisco Rodriguez: 17%
There is no question than Mariano is the best closer of this group. That is largely because of his consistency. He did not have any single regular season that was substantively better than the best of many of these names. But he also didn’t really have a down year in that span. Kimbrel, for example, had two really awful years in that span (as did most others mentioned here). Kenley didn’t had an “awful” year but he had several which weren’t very good. Mariano was extraordinarily consistent. He was also the GOAT (in my humble opinion) as far as ANY pitcher in playoff history (.70 ERA .70 WHIP in 141 innings pitched in the playoffs) Which is why he was a first ballot HOFer (deservedly so). He was the greatest. Statistical, Intangible and tangibles (5 damn World Series rings)
My point is that by any measure, Kenley has been an elite closer. In rare company regardless of which statistical category one chooses to examine. His best years were almost without parallel, even among the level of company above.
I think the key difference is our perspective as fans, because we tend to watch many (if not most or all) of the save opportunities for our favorite team. We see not just their amazing performances, but the ones that make us sweat, stress and pull our hair out. All that is real. But it’s also the case with almost every other great closer. Even among the greatest of all time. We just don’t watch those performances from all the others. SportsCenter or MLB Network will show the last pitch of the closer ending the game with a save, high fiving his catcher and then on to the next game highlights. What they don’t show was the 3 previous at bats where the guy was missing his spots, going to 3 and 2 with every batter and making the fans of his team stress the F***K out. I truly believe it’s perception.
Being a consistent relief pitcher or closer is very very hard. Throughout a single season and throughout a career. Which is why baseball history is full of dozens of closers who were amazing for 1 or 2 years and then drifted off into 5.00+ ERA obscurity. The ones that are good for a long time are actually very rare. Much more rare than hitters who are very good for a long time.
All that said, I think Kimbrel is a better pitcher today than Kenley. Not by a huge amount. And that is only TODAY. As with the nature of relief pitchers, Kenley could go on a run and Kimbrel could start getting pummeled for a week. Which wouldn’t be surprising or abnormal. Relief pitching is hard. Closing is even more so.
Kenley is a legend. Unless you watched all his saves. In which case we all remember every time he blew or almost blew a win. All that aside, with perspective, he was one of the best of his generation.
Done with may rant. Apologies.
I find no apologies necessary. I enjoyed the read.
I found Kenley was so good for so long it was easy to be surprised when he blew it. I’m so sorry to see him go but I get it.
Sorry to see him go. Not so sorry. Didn’t get to the edit in time. I’m not myself the last few days – which I’m sure is fine with some.
I’ll take the time here to ask again…. Bum would trade Bellinger for Buxton. Would you?
Not to interject. But my son and I were talking about the two of them in the context of his fantasy baseball league. He asked which I would rather have. I said it was a tough call. I guy that can just suck for several months each year or a guy that can’t play for several months each year (joke).
All things being equal, I wouldn’t make that trade today. Here’s why. Both are great defenders which is extremely important in CF. I trust my eyes more than I trust the stats and I think when your at their level, it’s basically a wash. I can’t definitively say one is better than the other defensively.
The reason I choose Belli is that I believe in him. I think his problems are injury related and I think he’ll get back to being a 30-40 homer guy which is extremely valuable in CF. I don’t know if Buxton is ever going to be a 40 homer guy, Belli hit 39 and 47 at Dodger stadium!
The last reason is that Buxton makes Pollock look like Cal Ripken. He averages 62 games a season! He’s also two years older than Belli. Hard pass.
Hope you feel better Badger.
“I’m not myself the last few days – which I’m sure is fine with some.”
We’ve butted heads a few times, but I genuinely hope it’s nothing and you’re feeling better in no time.
Thanks for your concern. I’m ok. The “old guy” Eastwood refers to is sneaking in.
As for butting heads, I appreciate the opportunity to do so. Talking with you is a reminder to define my principles and live them.
No apologies necessary Jayne. Some excellent stuff there.
Your point about seeing all the bad outings of the hometown guy is also very valid.
One other thing, when you get a guy who is considered great, his good/great/perfect outings are taken for granted and his bad appearances are blown out of proportion.
When you go to your favorite restaurant, all the good meals are enjoyed and expected, but if you get a bad meal there, that’s the one you remember most.
I like your analogy with restaurants. Everybody has bad days. Closers, chefs… everybody. It’s the great ones we hold to highest standards. Often unrealistic standards. To your analogy, there have been several high profile chefs who have killed themselves in recent years because they lost their Michelin Star. Not because they weren’t great. But because they weren’t perfect. Nobody is perfect. But many fans/customers expect perfection because we’ve experienced it from them so many times.
Thank you for doing my homework for me!
I wish I knew you in 11th grade
I wish I knew all the people here since I was a kid. I’ve learned more about Dodger history and real discussion about the sport we love.
By far the greatest place for discussion.
Social media is garbage. This group is special.
Mark, and everybody else… Thank you.
Bellinger’s doing a little better the last few games. When are we allowed to start complaining about Mookie Betts?
100% with you on Mookie.
Don’t use percentages!
Somebody got annoyed at my use the other day
Only a few did. . Probably 10%
SPClayton Kershaw L
1-0 .00 ERA
Confirmed Lineup
RF Mookie Betts R
1B F. Freeman L
SS Trea Turner R
2B Max Muncy L
3B J. Turner R
C Will Smith R
CF C. Bellinger L
DH Edwin Rios L
LF Gavin Lux L
0% Rain
66° Wind 6 mph Out
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Juan Toribio) on the health status of some injured pitchers. Tommy Kahnle may be the closest to a return, as after missing the entire 2021 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Kahnle is on a rehab assignment in the minors and might be able to join the Dodgers before the end of April. Caleb Ferguson is also recovering from TJ surgery and is tentatively slated for a return in the middle of May, as Ferguson had some elbow soreness during Spring Training. Victor Gonzalez developed inflammation in his throwing elbow at the end of spring camp and has a tentative recovery timetable of 3-4 weeks.
OK, let’s look at WAR and tell me who should not be there:
The job of “closer” used to be “fireman”. They might pitch several innings of high stress baseball – not just a clean 9th. A much harder job.
An example – Ron Perranoski pitched 129 innings in 69 games and was 16 – 3, 1.67 but “only” had 21 saves in 1963. He was also a 4.5 WAR relief pitcher (if you believe in WAR for relievers). He threw over 100 innings in relief 7 times in 11 seasons. It’s easy to put up gaudy numbers if you pitch for an inning at a time and mostly come in to start a “clean” 9th inning, so it’s comparing apples and oranges.
Gossage, Fingers, Wilhelm and McDaniel had a much more difficult job to do, although Gossage and Wilhelm began their careers as starters.
What there are you referring to? If it’s the HOF, then here’s my rebuttal…
There’s 8 relief pitchers in the hall of fame. That’s a very exclusive group. They are Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm, Bruce Sutter and Lee Smith.
The very first thing that stands out to me is the fact that all of them except Eck have well over 1000 innings pitched.
Of course, Dennis was also 20 game winner as a starter, so he got extra points for having pitched over 3000 career innings and being a pretty damn good starter for a portion of it.
The second thing that stood out is that you’re sorting by WAR. (Big Sigh) I looked at Fangraphs for the definition, and it says it’s based on FIP for pitchers (An even bigger sigh). Sorry Mark, but to get into the Hall, you will be judged on more than BB, K, HR.
I was curious when I saw Sutter so low on the list. Of course, the 1000 innings is impressive, and that low WAR is obviously indicative of that low K rate. Looking deeper, I wanted to check his BR page. 6 time all star and lead the league in saves 5 out of 6 straight years. I can see and remember why Sutter is in. Of course, Wilhelm is a whole other monster because of the era he played in, so I’m not even going to bother. So, the only other guy on the list that is below Kenley in WAR is Eck, and we explained why Eck is in. It’s because he had a full career as a starter and as a reliever.
Now that we’re done with the three anomalies. You have to ask yourself, does Kenley stand with 1-5?
Did you know that Rich Gossage was a starter for one year and threw 224 innings that year?
Looking through the stat pages of the top five, the one consistent thing I see is the votes. All those guys were All-stars at least 7 times, Kenley just 3 times. They all have pitched 17 or 18 seasons. Kenley is at 13. All of them lead the league in saves at least 3 times, except for Hoffman, but he had a 50 save season and had over 40 a whopping 8 times.
Sorry Mark, but Kenley is going to be close but he will fall short. Like I said, he was great for 7 years. That’s not enough.
If all you have to do is sort by WAR, they wouldn’t send out a vote.
Get Sandy Koufax out of the Hall. He only had 5 good years!
So, you disregard the stats that you don’t like or don’t prove your point.
Just about every player (not 100%) in the HOF has a WAR that proves he deserves it.
WAR ain’t the ONLY stat, but if you had only 1 Stat, what would you take over WAR?
My argument is pitching a ton of innings, winning awards and leading the league gets you in as a reliever. Your argument is WAR gets you in even though 8 guys out of your list of 17 with similar WAR is in, including No. 17.
And it’s gloriously funny that the list you posted completely proves your 3rd point incorrect.
So, let’s just go ahead and rewrite that 3rd sentence. Less that 50% of relievers in the HOF has a WAR that proves he deserves it.
If you can pick Hall of Famers based on a single stat, then you don’t need to send out ballots.
Look, if Kenley has 3 more 30 saves seasons in him and pitches for 4 more, I would say he’s got a better than 50% chance of getting in, but that’s not even a guarantee. If he collects 100 more saves and 300 more innings, he’s right where he needs to be, but as a 3 time all star, he would be by far the least on the list in that category and that could come back to bite him.
I just don’t see it as likely he gets there and if he retired today, he would not get in just based on WAR.
Who doesn’t belong? Aroldis Chapman. Why? I don’t like him. And that’s good enough for me.
if you only had one stat other than WAR? wOBA against? I’ve been reading a lot about that lately
Be careful! Chapman might shoot you up. He has been known to do that!
I ain’t afraid of him.
Ok, maybe a little.
I got your back!
I would have to agree with Badger that a stat that considers OBP against and SLG against is better than just considering walks, K’s and HR’s when evaluating pitchers. If a pitcher lets the batter hit the ball, he has to account for that outcome and not just the ones that go over the fence.
If I understand it correctly, wOBA is a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how a player reached base — instead of simply considering whether a player reached base. The value for each method of reaching base is determined by how much that event is worth in relation to projected runs scored (example: a double is worth more than a single).
For instance: a few years ago a home run was worth 2.101 times on base, while a walk was worth 0.69 times on base. So a player who went 1-for-4 with a home run and a walk would have a wOBA of .558 — (2.101 + 0.69 / 5 PAs).
The formula
Where “factor” indicates the adjusted run expectancy of a batting event in the context of the season as a whole: (unintentional BB factor x unintentional BB + HBP factor x HBP + 1B factor x 1B + 2B factor x 2B + 3B factor x 3B + HR factor x HR)/(AB + unintentional BB + SF + HBP).
Why it’s useful
Unlike on-base percentage and OPS (OBP + SLG), wOBA assigns value to each method of reaching base, in terms of its impact on scoring runs.
That’s my understanding, word for word plagiarized from an article I read on the internet. That’s two sources, me and the World Wide Web of Fools, so, there….
I really like our bullpen
And we have several guys who are almost ready to join it.
I think we have some nice trade bait to help add to the already stacked farm
They score 7 runs on 7 hits, that is efficiency and considering their leadoff and cleanup hitters are both below the Mendoza line. Mookie did get a couple of walks tonight. Bellinger hit the ball hard 3 times. He is coming around. BP is solid.
Who has the most consecutive saves w/o blowing one? Why isn’t he mentioned?
Nice to see Bickford back. He really came out of nowhere last year and performed well.
And very nice to see Cody swinging the bat well. The fact that the team’s coldest bats right now belong to Mookie and Muncy augers well, because these guys have been pretty dependable the last few years.
Kersh got hit a bit tonight, but he still hasn’t walked anyone. I know it’s waaay too early to take stats seriously, but Kersh is leading the majors in WHIP at .50, and Heaney tied for 6th at .68.
Curiously, the Mets have three SPs among the leaders–and none are named Scherzer.
Good fun game tonight and the Dodger’s lineup is very formidable, especially with Cody finding his stroke.
I’m really enjoying the type of Baseball we are playing this season, getting away from reliance on the Long Ball.
Freddie is some player – so glad he is a Dodger, and when Mookie gets going we are gonna be very hard to beat.
I hadn’t read the comments until after the game, but funnily enough as Kimbrel came in to Close the game, I was thinking how less stressed I was feeling than in the last few seasons of Kenley.
Both are obviously to of the tree Closers, but as I suggested before the trade, Kimbrel is better now, and I’m
sure that’s why we see Kimbrel in Dodger Blue and Kenley in the opposition Bullpen.
As we know now, AF has learned how to put together a Bullpen over the years.