What Now?

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1. Hey Mark, we know you bat about as good as Dodger regulars in Spring Training when it comes to predictions. Honestly, you were almost right about Jansen. I think the Dodgers wanted to bring him back and were trying to make a deal to do so. I certainly didn’t think AJ would be traded. Like you said, he’s productive. The caveat is that he isn’t on the field very often. I will miss the invisible man, or Rodney Dangerfield. For all the guys that wanted to trade him the whole time he’s been here, they got their wish.

   Honestly, Kenley’s results were very good last year. He was less than very good for several years. But, I personally hated seeing him out there. He gave me agida. If he walked someone, he would eventually wind up on second base due to Kenley’s inability to hold runners. Once on second, Kenley would become distracted, some kind of paranoia no doubt and would intentionally balk the runner to third. Who the hell does that? One day barely hitting 91, shoving 95 the next. His reluctance to throw anything but the cutter. Would it be sharp that day? Urgh! I’m glad he’s gone.

   Kimble is an assassin. Sure, he had a couple of bad years, but he is dirty as hell. He’s happy to be here and we suddenly go from committee to black death. Thank you for this trade Gomes!

   One guy just solidified this bullpen like concrete. He puts Treinen in his favorite position, to go against the heart of the lineup and frees up closers in training, Graterol, V-Gone, Vesia to focus on their craft for another year. Don’t forget about Kahnle! This could be their best bullpen ever.

   Gomes said left field will be a job share with CT3 and Lux, but not a straight platoon. So, someone is going to have to play second base. Albertero will probably play second against lefties and CT3 mostly against righties with Muncy in the mix at 2B, 3B and DH until he can prove he’s a second baseman. I could also see Muncy getting the bulk of the playing time there with Alberto coming in as a defensive replacement.

   This will be an interesting team, especially on defense. The outfield defense improves here. Lux will get better with reps, he has much better range than Pollock and a better arm. CT3 is already a much better outfielder than Pollock. With Belli’s range in CF and Mookie’s in right, the outfield covers a ton of ground and all will have above average to great arms. T Turner and Freddie improve the infield defense from last year. TT isn’t Jose Reyes, but he’s better than Seager with the glove. Freeman is a great big first baseman who fields his position and can pick it. Maybe as rangy as Muncy at 1B, but he’ll pick better and pull in more errant throws than Muncy with 5 more inches of height and a longer wingspan. JT isn’t the defender he used to be and Rios is acceptable, but isn’t ever going win gold gloves. Muncy at 2B is going be like a cross between Jeff Kent and Chase Utley. I’m not convinced he’s going to be a good second baseman and might end up being a square peg in a round hole and the next to be shipped away.

   Now, all we have to do is get guys hitting again and get Bauer out of the dog house.

   You certainly look ready for some Orlando time. Have fun out there and enjoy you’re workation. Maybe they can teach Lamb or Vargas to play second base in AAA.

2. Dodgers need TB back. Soon.
   Other than that this team is LOADED. And DEEP.

   Go Dodgers!!!!!!!

3. Hoping the offense can flip the switch on Friday because the ST numbers look horrible.

   TB does indeed need to get back and I don’t like the look of Moronta on the opening day roster. Not sure Bruhil makes the opening day roster either.

4. As usual everyone will play all over the place. And Lux will be a stud. And I’m never wrong. Just ask my wife! He was a slow starter at every level as a minor leaguer and then he took off and this is the year he does exactly that with the Dodgers! And did I mention that I’m never wrong? Enjoy your time in Orlando with the family Mark

5. “Profiles as a superstar”

   That sentiment seems like the consensus among professional evaluators.

   In 2019 in AAA he batted .392, with a walk rate of 14% and strikeout rate of just 18%. His OBP was .478, his slugging was .719 and his overall wRC+ was 188. Remember, a wRC+ of 100 is considered league average. His numbers were INSANE.

   This is why he was was ranked the No. 2 prospect in baseball by MLB Pipeline, the third-best prospect by Baseball Prospectus, and No. 4 by Baseball America.

   “Raar, rrr … but scouting reports don’t mean a damn thing! raar rar!”

   Ok then, let’s refrain from crowing when the scouting reports say the Dodgers have a top farm system.

   Let’s take another look at the rating system for Lux from Fangraphs.

   45 / 60 60 / 70 65 / 65 55 / 55 35 / 50 30 / 30 70

   Those are the ratings for Hit, Game Power, Raw Power, Speed, Field, Throws and Future Value

   Pay special attention to that last number – 70. The ranking scale is 20-80, with 80 considered close to God/Babe Ruth mode. 55 is considered above average, 60 is considered All Star, 70 is considered top 10. So, Fangraphs, to cite just one example, consider Gavin Lux to be a potential top 10 player in all of major league baseball, and at least a future All Star.

   Yet, every time Lux goes 0-fer in a game he gets included in every hare brained trade scenario for some mid-tier starting pitcher. The Dodgers don’t need Frankie Montas or Mantaeaea, or whatever his name is. How many 3.50-4.00 ERA pitchers does a team need? We’ve already got five of them on the roster. We’re not trading away a potential future perennial all star for another. Stop this insanity!

   “Raar rrrr! He’s a scrub! Raaaar!” No, he’s not a scrub. I can think of no better endorsement of his future status than the Dodgers organization itself, which, by trading away their starting right fielder, guaranteed Lux more playing time. They haven’t given up on him. They know more than you or I or all the rest of the grumpy old men on this site know.

   Progress isn’t linear, unless it’s some guy I don’t like cuz reasons. We all have our biases. Trea Turner bugs me for some reason. I don’t think he’s a gamer. He looks like he drinks soy lattes. I figured it out, finally. He looks like that professional activist, David Hogg. I hate that guy! LOL

   https://www.google.com/search?q=david+hogg&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS946US947&sxsrf=APq-WBvRJSV9bdeBt4c2kSWdNbxIXPGb0Q:1648908600110&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&vet=1&fir=5f80b_ISZ1tF2M%252C5i2ncRGM5Ni1CM%252C_%253ByB4KxxqxXFCFOM%252CT3x2cvPsVv2dHM%252C_%253Bf5upMFsx3F5QxM%252C_Oqbiv58Kp2ygM%252C_%253B1u8EzZyud2444M%252CrCJ84s5ohPibUM%252C_&usg=AI4_-kQz9j7A5BMWqdezO3QqlZXqy022Lg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj6o4Gbx_X2AhWdDkQIHSChA3cQ_h16BAggEAE&biw=1200&bih=624&dpr=2.5#imgrc=5f80b_ISZ1tF2M

   1. If Hogg could hit .300+ like TT I’d sign him and put him in CF

   2. A few days ago Lamb had three hits in a game and some already wanted to buy him a house.
      I make three predictions, when the dust settles: Lux will play most of his games at 2B, CT3 will play most of his games at LF, Muncy will play most of his games a DH.

      1. Yep

6. I will make a prediction and will be probably wrong as Mark has been lately, that Trevor Bauer will get suspended and help put the Dodgers under the current $290 million threshold in payroll which is another layer of penalties. The commissioner has full discretion in this matter, legally right or wrong. I won’t predict how long a suspension. After the suspension , the Dodgers will try to trade him and if unsuccessful the Dodgers have a Public Relations nightmare on their hands. I won’t predict what happens then.

   New GM Brandon Gomes is doing one hell of a job in his new position with the blessings of AF on all these trades and signings.

   Mark, have a safe enjoyable fun filled trip to Florida.

   1. Fun fact. Not a single player than has been suspended for domestic violence that was under contract has been traded after his suspension was served. So you are predicting a first.

      It sure looks like the Dodgers are all in this year after signing Freeman and trading a productive bat for one of the greatest closers of this generation. I would find it odd that they would trade arguable their best, or second best starting pitcher to avoid a public relations nightmare.

      Did you ever stop to think that trading him would create just as big of a public relations nightmare for the other half of their fans that are in favor of keeping him? You know, the ones that actually buy tickets, beer and hotdogs?

7. Be safe in Florida Mark. Bugs down there are bigger than dogs. Mets and Padres discussing a trade centered around Eric Hosmer, Paddack and the Mets, Dominic Smith. Mets need a starting pitcher bad. But they have absolutely no need for Hosmer with Alonso there. I have no clue how Lux will do. As a fan of the team, I hope for the best. But from what I saw of him in the outfield last season, I am not all that confident he is an upgrade over a career outfielder. Hope he proves me wrong.

   1. I’m wondering if you saw the same games that I saw. I saw Lux screw up a couple of plays and make a couple of great plays. For a guy that’s had a whopping 20 career starts (10 minors/10 majors) he looked pretty good to me. He definitely has a high ceiling and a low floor to play a position that averages about 3-4 plays per game.

      It seems as though you’ve mentioned this about 10 time already. I think you’ve gotten your point across. Gavin just turned 24 in November. He’s still a kid and most guys haven’t even played in the Majors at age 23.

      The fact that the Dodgers are comfortable putting a guy out there with just 20 career games over a career outfielder should tell you something. He has more range and a better arm. I think that’s half the battle.

      1. Beat me to it.

8. Bear, enough! We know you don’t have any faith in Lux. Don’t need to keep being reminded.

9. How come the Braves don’t have a public relations nightmare with Ozuna coming back? And Bauer’s situation was consensual.

10. Okay, I believed Clayton Kershaw would return to the Dodgers and LA wouldn’t re-sign Kenley Jansen. Honestly, I’m not sure the Dodgers trusted Jansen moving forward. If they did they could have just made the deal. But they hesitated. They didn’t hesitate with Freddy Freeman.

    But I thought Freeman would re-sign with the Braves and the Dodgers were a long shot. I was shocked the Dodgers traded AJ Pollock. They will definitely miss his bat.

    Obviously, the Dodgers felt they needed the closer more than the bat. Especially with the short spring training, they needed to improve their pitching and rely on their depth to take care of left field. That probably means Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux. It also opens up a roster spot for a couple of other players who had a good spring.

    The Dodgers are apparently very high on Lux. We’ll see if he takes advantages and produces like some believe he can. I like Lux, think he has a boatload of talent, but at some point you need to produce. Maybe this clears a path to do just that.

    All things considered, even though I will miss Pollock (he had a lot of big hits last year) the Dodgers are probably a better team today than a couple of days ago and figure to be a 100 win plus team. That is, if Kimbrel pitches up to expectations, and the team stays healthy.

    Good write-up today, Mark.

11. And so Lux leads off at 2B today

12. And the Mets owner continues to show stupidity… Don’t make that possible trade, don’t help that other team of idiots and clowns (Mets are the other) Or maybe that’s why they are considering such a horrible trade!

13. 

14. Opening Day In Question For Max Scherzer
    By TC Zencka | April 2, 2022 at 11:34am CDT

    Max Scherzer was scratched from his spring training start today because of a tweaked hamstring, writes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. After the news of Jacob deGrom’s injury yesterday, there would be no more devastating update for the Mets than a Scherzer injury, but all accounts say that the injury is not serious.

    Scherzer himself would not set a timetable on his return, with a video clip of Scherzer speaking to reporters provided here by Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Scherzer would not rule out being ready by opening day, but he would neither commit to it.

    1. Here’s a prediction for you. Scherzer will go on the IL twice this year at a minimum. He will be great at times and pedestrian at times. This is the beginning of the end for Scherzer.

       The Mets are in big trouble.

       1. I agree.

15. Mark, you mentioned a while back that Jeff Dominique was planning to start a blog of his own around this time. Any news on that?

    1. I have heard nothing and it is not up. You know what I know.

16. Jeren Kendall. I thought that ship had sailed! Well I guess he can’t hit any worse than the other guy in CF

    1. I was hoping Kendall could be another Bellinger………………………………………………….but now we have Bellinger becoming another Kendall.

17. Bradford Doolittle
    ESPN Staff Writer
    “The Dodgers will now most likely give the bulk of that time at the position to super-utility player Chris Taylor. When he’s on the field with Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts, L.A. will feature a dynamic outfield defense, at the very least. That will still be the case if veteran pickup Kevin Pillar makes the roster and ends up spelling Bellinger against lefties from time to time.
    Taylor has less power than Pollock while providing similar or better on-base ability. He’s a slight offensive downgrade but can make up the difference in the field and on the base paths. The overall difference in bottom-line production is negligible.”

    1. Well put.

18. I will keep talking about Lux until he does something that makes me change my mind. Small sample, yes. But if you want me to shut up about Lux, you need to shut up about Bellinger. I have heard it all. I sincerely hope Gavin plays up to the potential you all seem to see in him. I watched every game last season once I got back from California. We all see the game through different eyes. And this site is for fan opinions, you don’t like mine, fine. I am still going to voice it. In my opinion, the guy is not as good as Pollock was in the outfield as of this time today. Might he be better in a month? Who knows? Certainly none of us here, including myself have any clue at all. If he turns into a great outfielder, all that much better for the Dodgers. But no one here, not a single one of you is going to tell me what I can say, and when I can say it. I respect your opinion. respect mine or shut the hell up.

    1. Bear, I welcome your opinion. I am just saying we all already know it regarding Lux.

       1. It might change, never can tell, but he showed me nothing today.

          1. A walk is as good as a hit 😉

19. Bobby Miller gets the start Tuesday against the Angels. They hope he can pitch 3 or 4 innings. They mentioned that he might start the season at OKC. That’s quick!

    1. hmmm, I’m supposed to be going to the Journey concert at Staples Center Tuesday night, but maybe it’s worth going to see Bobby Miller pitch for 3-4 innings, then head down to the concert?

       Dodgers start at 6. Concert starts at 7:30

       1. Love your style Bobby lol

       2. That sounds like a good plan. Maybe it will be streamed for free and you can bring it with you.

20. Angels just DFAed Justin Upton. Eating $28m for the last year of his contract. Somebody will pick him up this weekend at the MLB minimum.

    Angels are a prime example why dope fiend free agent contracts can cripple a franchise for a decade. Despite having the best player in baseball for that last decade. Angels ate $80m releasing Josh Hamilton. $30m on Pujols (even though they paid $100m+ for years where he had replacement level production) and now $28m for Upton. Angels spent $138m to pay players to play against them in the past 7 years.

    I’m glad AF has mostly avoided these kinds of long term deals. And built from within. Glad I’m a Dodger fan.

21. I read that Bellinger’s shoulder is tighter after surgery. Apparently it was loose when it more easily popped out of place. That could be true but if he adjusts to his new shoulder tightness, I would think his big swing and head movement will not play well with age.

    I wanted to trade Bellinger for Buxton. I also wanted to trade some good prospects for Olsen but I am now happy with Freeman. I just wanted the younger Olsen.

    The Dodgers were trying to reduce payroll before offering Jansen a contract. Also, it now appears the Dodgers had been trying to trade Pollock for two weeks. I am assuming trading Pollock for Kimbrel was Plan B. I wonder what their Plan A was regarding a Pollock trade.

    I like depth and a strong bench but I don’t like putting someone like Taylor or Pollock on the bench. Both should start or one should be traded. I think the Dodgers agreed, especially with them sitting at about $2M over the highest CBT penalty level. Now they need to figure out a way to shed about $3M from their AAV. Could that be Price or will it wind up being Bauer?

    Which brings up the question, can Bauer be traded before any decision is made by the Commissioner’s office? With deGrom and Scherzer more questionable health wise, are the Mets hungry enough to trade for Bauer? And, no, I don’t want Cano. Did the Mets buy insurance for Scherzer? Would the Angels want Price? Do the Dodgers have enough rotation depth to trade one or both?

    I still predict Lux will be the starting second baseman. I would still trade Bellinger for Buxton in a heartbeat. Maybe a three team trade where Bellinger goes to the Yankees, Hicks to the Twins, and Buxton to the Dodgers plus whatever money or other players would be involved to make it happen.

22. Bum, regarding you comment onellinger’s swing not aging like a fine wine, I went back to a couple of comments I made on that subject some time back:
    6/6/21. in a conversation with about Bellinger’s numbers I said “tedraymond, I took your numbers here on Bellinger and dug a little deeper. For starters I agree with you on his value at 3 positions, great speed and base running. He was other worldly through 2017, 2018 and the half of 2019. His 1.137 1st half was unsustainable. The 2nd half of 2019 he still posted a .921 OPS but his homers dropped from 27 to 20 and his average from .345 to .259. Still those were MVP numbers despite a slide to reality the 2nd half. Since then, as you pointed out, it’s been .789 and .641. Still nice numbers but trending in the wrong direction. I know he’s been injured and he’s only 25. But I’m on record as being suspicious of his swing long-term. Time will tell but sitting right here, right now I would be reluctant to sign him to a massive Boras type contract unless that trend turns around in the next 2 years.”
    on 10/19/21 in a conversation with DodgerPatch. I said “Patch, excellent thoughts on Bellinger. As conversations about Bellinger’s potential to get a long-term expensive contact after next season started in 2019, I was very clear about my concerns about him. I like the kid, his athleticism and gold glove D at 1st and center. But I don’t like his swing. It’s a young man’s swing that I predicted would never hold up with age and injuries. I think he’s been spiraling down since mid season 2019. I know his injuries haven’t helped but I’m with you on the shoulder particularly causing him to hit a buck sixty-five. There’s way more to it than that.
” The clock is ticking.

23. Bellinger has not always had a swing like that. Look at the differences here:

    A few years ago, they were comparing his swing to Ted Williams and adored his swing:
    

    Consider this:
    

    1. Thanks for sharing this Mark. I love to listen to all kinds of coaching. This guy and I agree that timing is a huge problem for Cody. And maybe it is his load and launch position as this guy contends. I don’t agree that the bat angle in the first earlier view is optimism but he loaded the bat and was on time to get his hands to the ball. As this guy points out, he wasn’t rushed. And that’s now the problem. Tardy.
       I want to start in the first frame to get him on time. How about instead of that absolutely straight up and down stance, he gets in an athletic stance? Bend at the waist and create a spine angle like a golfer’s. And flex his knees, drop his butt and sit down. You might notice this is his posture when he makes contact with a good swing. But his head has to travel 18 inches to get there.
       So start there with the stance, well before the ball is released. This makes all that head drop to get to load unnecessary. Eyes don’t move as much, less moving parts, an earlier load and launch and ON TIME. No rush.
       I would have started with that stance in January and hit a million balls off a tee to left field.

24. Welcome, Crag Kimbrel!

25. Ouch, Kimbrel’s Spring ERA is now 94.50.

    Wow!

26. Spring training may not be too important.
    But Kershaw with a very good outing today which is two solid starts in a row. He looks ready for the rotation and hopefully can stay healthy this year.
    And Kimbrel could not have had a worse outing. First four batters hit double, HR, HR, and single. Mostly against minor league players. I do not see how anyone can be confident after that outing. In two appearances this spring, he has faced 12 batters and given up 9 runs while only getting 3 outs.
    In the second half of last year, his era was 5.09 with the White Sox.
    Friedman and Dodgers usually make the right moves, but this trade starting out poorly.

    1. It is hard to switch to a new home park during the Spring 😉

27. Can we get Pollock back? Don’t we have 24 hours to return Kimbrel if we kept the receipt?

    1. Pretty sure Pollock can pitch that good.

       1. But can Kimbril DH?

28. Well, Kimbrell is off to a spectacular start in Dodger blue…. just not in a good way.
    The best news from today, methinks, is the plan for Bobby Miller to start in the Freeway Series. Still spring, but it’s got to be the first time Miller has pitched in a crowded ML park. Based on the early reports, Miller has kicked his game up a notch and could make a significant contribution this year…. at some point.
    Second best news: Bickford struck out two! (Who needs Kimbrel??)Weren’t we told Bickford that wouldn’t be ready to start the season?
    Mark’s OD roster and lineup looks pretty good to me. But I’d tweak it:
    –Alberto hits the ball, but not with power, and he doesn’t walk much. I don’t see him as DH when there are other options. He appears to be a more reliable glove than Lux, so I could see him in a platoon at 2B and perhaps a late defense sub at 3B. If it’s Lux/Taylor in LF, then Alberto’s versatility helps enable JT and Muncy rotate thru the DH spot, which can also feature Smith when Barnes is catching.
    –If there’s a plan to platoon Lux in LF, then yes, it’s another runway…. but only against righthanded pitching. There’s nothing wrong with being a versatile platoon guy, but way short of the hype…oh well ….. To me Lux has already had two nice runways: First when he was annointed the starting 2B job, and later when Seager got injured and he moved to his natural position of SS. So far, not so good.
    –Pollock had a productive 2021 but Dodger brass must figure his production will be replaced by a few factors: the arrival of Freeman (much more durable than Seager), the potency of the rotating DH, the anticipated improvement from Belli and Lux (we hope!), and finally the presence of Rios and Lamb. Taylor might be a better fielder than Pollock, and while Lux is still learning, he is much faster.
    I find myself wondering whether the Giants or Padres might grab Upton, since the Angels are paying the bill.

    1. I doubt they would plug both catchers into the lineup the same game. Especially since none of the other position players have ever caught. They could do it if Kike were still there. He was the emergency catcher. Beaty was until he was dealt. I personally do not think AF is done tweaking the lineup. I think Lamb makes the OD roster, but Pillar will not. Especially if they are going to carry 15 pitchers like most pundits think they will.

29. On the bright side, Kimbrel was pretty bad last year in the Spring and we all know what he did with the Cubs. Not worried about a guy with 2 Spring appearances. I’m a little more worried if anyone is ever going to hit. Are we ready to call up Pages to play left field after today?

    I guess they’re planning on having Kershaw start every game this year since he has 4 Spring starts and no one else has had more than 2.

    It seems like Vesia has given up runs in every appearance so far.

    This has got to be the worst Spring Training ever. I can’t wait for the regular season to start.

30. Good point re catchers, Bear.
    I like having an emergency catcher. (Can Alberto do it? Taylor?)
    Some of us will remember when Kyle Farmer was brought up to the Dodgers. As I recall it, he was a SS in college and the Dodgers converted him to catcher. He was billed as a “backup catcher” in that big salary-dump deal with the Reds that also included Kemp, Puig and Alex Wood. Amid the big names he just looked like just a throw-in….
    But Farmer has been the Reds starting SS for the last couple of years. A real mainstay on that team.
    Still, the Reds would probably like a REAL shortstop, not a converted backup catcher.
    So Lux + Jackson + ?? for Castillo and Farmer?

    1. Castillo is going to start the season on the IL.

31. Just for the record, I am above all, a Dodger fan. Have always been and always will be. I do not have any inside info on the team. I do my evaluating through the eye test. I have trusted my eyes my entire time as a fan. I have been wrong about players, and I have occasionally been right. One thing that never changes is that I want all the members of the team to do well. I do not wish any of them anything except success. That being said, to me a player is still a prospect until he proves himself, more than just once by the way, on the field of play. Over my time as a fan, I have seen some very hyped players flame out, or just merely never reach the potential that scouts, manager, coaches, fans, front offices, and the pundits predict. For every Bryce Harper, there are 10 or more Billy Ashley’s. For some it is the bright lights of a big city like New York. I remember Jeff Weaver, who was a decent pitcher, simply falling apart in Yankee pinstripes. Sometimes an injury will cause a player to not live up to the hype. I was one of the few who was all in when LA signed AJ Pollock, and since that first year, he did a fine job for LA. He will be missed by me. Rookies and young players are a whole different animal. I hear all the hype about Bobby Miller, and on Tuesday, I can see for myself what it is all about. I sincerely hope Gavin Lux lives up to the expectations so many of you have put on him. I hope he is that type of player. But even though I am not from Missouri, I am a show me type of fan. Do it, repeat it most days, and I will believe it. Until then, I am very skeptical.

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