Let me start this by saying “You can NEVER have enough starting pitching”. That much is true, simply because you never do have enough starting pitching. There will always come a day when you could use another one. That is because of injury, especially issues related to repetitive stress injuries and just the dangers and problems associated with throwing a baseball. I just ain’t natural, I tell you.
Do the Dodgers really have enough starting pitching? I think they do, but many fans think that they do not. The fact is that an injury… or three changes everything, so if there are a rash of injuries, then maybe the Dodgers do not have enough starting pitching. There have been comparisons that Tyler Anderson, David Price, and Andrew Heaney are the equivalent to Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, and Brett Anderson. The similarities between the trios end with the fact that they all throw a ball for a living.
There is also another “longshot” in camp and that is Carson Fulmer. Still only 28 years old – he has never put it all together, even though he was a Top Prospect for a long time. He was the best pitcher on a Vanderbilt team that included Walker Buehler. He has two outstanding pitches: A fastball that is 94-97 with later movement and a power curveball, and his changeup is average. His command has always been the issue and his herky, jerky delivery is the culprit. Can he win a spot? It’s doubtful, but you never know. Here is a full list of the candidates:
- Striker Buehler (Ace)
- Julio Urias (Ace-Stuff)
- Clayton Kershaw (Former Ace – Can he stay healthy?)
- Trevor Bauer (He will play… where is the question – a great #4)
- Tony Gonsolin (I think he will break out like Julio did last year)
- Andrew Heaney (He has the stuff, but can he harness it?)
- David Price (He has the pedigree, but does he have the desire?)
- Tyler Anderson (who looked outstanding in his last 3 innings of work).
- Mitch White (Good swingman)
- Andre Jackson (Probably a bottom of the rotation pitcher)
- Landon Knack (this guy is on a fast track – his stuff is ready)
- Ryan Pepiot (we got a glimpse of how good he can be last night)
- Bobby Miller (closer than you think)
- Clayton Beeter (solid if not spectacular)
- Danny Duffy (maybe he won’t start when he’s healthy in July, but he can pitch multiple innings)
- Dustin May (I also do not think he will log many innings this year as he recovers from TJ and he likely won’t pitch until June, but he can pitch multiple innings)
Let me remind you that you only need five (count ’em 5) starters for the team. I have included Trevor Bauer because I do not see how MLB can suspend him, and I think I have a better grasp of the issue than many of the other “pundits” who have been writing about it. If I am wrong about Bauer, I am sure you all will pile on! Bauer released this statement last week:
“Mr. Bauer is cooperating with the MLB investigation and looks forward to resolving its matter. He continues to prepare for the 2022 MLB season. Administrative leave is not a disciplinary action nor does it in any way reflect a finding in the league’s investigation.”
Here’s the thing: You don’t want to sign pitchers who are going to block the youngsters. I say the Dodgers should just stand pat and see where they are before the trade deadline. There are just too many options. In fact, I could see the Dodgers trading a starter or four during the season (not named Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Miller, or Pepiot).
Rants and Raves
- What are the odds that Max Muncy starts out slow and then everyone starts saying “I knew his arm was not healthy.” Even though he is a notorious streak hitter.
- In an event that is as rare as Halley’s Comet, Jake Lamb got a hit off a lefthander. Man… he wants to make this team! Halley last appeared in the inner parts of the Solar System in 1986 and will next appear in mid-206. I can hardly wait!
- It was just an inning but Michael Grove looked good in it. This is likely his make-or-break year. He will likely go to AA Tulsa for a spell.
- Justin Hagenman, Darien Nunez, and the Bazooka are also all unscored upon, but the guy I have picked to breakout is Garrett Cleavinger. He is unscored upon in 3 IP. Again, these are small samplings.
Don’t forget Michael Grove who is on the 40 man roster. One inning pitched las night 2Ks no hits ,no BBs or runs. Could be a sleeper.
I mentioned him, but he is no longer a starter. He has allegedly been converted to the pen. I look to see him there!
What’s the reason the Dodgers don’t think he can’t be a starter? It looked like last night he has three pitches, a fastball, curve and slider and is working on a changeup.
Michael GRove underwent Tommy John Surgery in May of 2017. Before his surgery, his fastball hit 96 MPH. All of last year, it was at 93 MPH. In February, he was back hitting 97 MPH as a reliever. He missed all of 2018 and 2020 and in 2021, he started 19 games and rarely went more than a few innings. This was 4 years after his TJ. He had a 7.86 ERA as a starter last year.
I do not know for sure, but 93 MPH as a starter, 97 MPH in the pen? Sounds like he should be in the pen. Grove can be very effective focusing on the fastball, curveball, and slider and making those pitches elite. In my opinion, Grove will be closer. It was reported early in Spring Training that in Practice Games, Michael GRove was “mowing down” the Dosger regulars.
Let me make an amendment. You can never have enough GOOD starting pitching. Butane is good. Urias is good. Kershaw MIGHT still be good IF he can stay healthy.
After that –
Heaney was sort of good in 2015 and 2018. Other than that, not so good. He MIGHT be good if somehow the Dodger pitching coach wizards can sprinkle some magic pixie dust on his harm. We’re operating on the assumption that the Dodger analytics geeks see some underlying goodness in him.
It’s hard to say if Tyler Anderson was ever good. He might have been good in 2015. It’s hard to tell. His ERA was not good, but it was Colorado, after all. Since then he has generally not been good, although he threw a lot of innings last years, so his mediocre goodness is at least durable.
Gonsolin was pretty good in his rookie year. He doesn’t have a long or impressive track record, but he might be good. He wasn’t good last year, especially in the playoffs.
We know Bauer is pretty good. Maybe not as good as when he was using the sticky stuff, but still reasonably good. If he gets suspended indefinitely, or the Dodgers stupidly try to dump him in a trade and eat his salary to avoid the PR fallout because of the braying of the Molly Knights and Bill Plashckes of the world, that would not be good.
I don’t know if David Price cares if he’s good.
You don’t need all five starting pitchers to be really good during the regular season, especially if you can make up for it with a potent offense and/or a good relief corps. You do need at least 3 really good starting pitchers if you want a good chance to go deep in the playoffs. Butane, Urias and Bauer are good bets for a trio of starting pitchers who can be the core of a playoff starting pitcher roster. Everyone else have major questions marks.
Let’s think of a hypothetical. Butane has already had TJ once. He throws hard. He throws really hard. It’s not beyond the realm of reasonable possibility that he blows out his arm. Then what? Without the depth in GOOD starting pitchers, the Dodgers would be up shit creek. The Dodgers are simply very vulnerable to unexpected attrition to the top of their rotation
Getting Bauer back is really a necessity, and, if they don’t want to do that or they can’t, maybe try for a mid-season trade for Castillo from the Reds.
Can be said about every team in the league. It makes me wonder how many elite rotations have a pitcher that has already had TJ. The Angels only two pitchers both had TJ. DeGrom and the Mets – Check. Darvish, Padres – check. Giants, Webb – check, Cobb- check. Blue Jays Ryu – Check (Actually worse, rotator cuff). Astros, Verlander – Check. McCullers – Check. Yankees, Severino – check. Montgomery – check. Taillon – check. Phillies, Wheeler – Check. White Sox, Lynn – check Kopech – Check.
After a little research, it seems that every top staff in baseball has a top pitcher that has had TJ. I wonder how many of those teams have the depth and talent the Dodgers have.
Keith Law on Maddox Bruns:
The rest is ($$$$)
Maddux Bruns was the Dodgers’ first-round pick in 2021, the final selection of the round after an up-and-down year that saw the Alabama high school lefty show premium stuff but often struggled with strikes. He’s been absolutely electric so far in spring training, showing the kind of pure stuff on Friday that might make teams question why he wasn’t the first high school pitcher off the board
Wow!
Very nice. Maybe he’ll be the next Clayton.
Law also mentioned another prospect that caught his eye:
One Dodgers name to tuck away for when the Arizona Complex League starts up this summer: Rayne Doncon……
There is a little more obviously
I agree with the pitching situation. I thought AF was extremely quiet on pitching in the offseason if he thought that Bauer wasn’t going to return at some point. Pepiot and Miller will make some starts this year, and they do not want to block these two. They brought in Anderson and Heaney to get by until reinforcements come in the form of Pepiot, Miller and possibly May and Duffy if their rehabs go well.
If Gonsolin is healthy, and he looks like he is, he will be in the rotation. Along with CK, Urias and Bueller, we’re 4 deep with quality options. The 5th spot will no doubt go to one of the veteran lefties, Price, Heaney or Anderson with Anderson taking the early lead barring someone else stepping up and doing something spectacular. The other two will be relegated to the bullpen to start the season as the 27th and 28th man on the roster. They will be used to piggy back others in the rotation to keep the starters from having to build up to a full load during a short Spring Training. This will allow them to continue to develop Miller and Pepiot.
Fulmer and Burrows are lottery picks that they might just cash in. I wouldn’t be surprised if one or both eventually become rotation mainstays if the Dodgers can get them over the hump. Each have higher draft pedigrees than Miller or Pepiot. Fulmer was an 8th overall pick!
Of course, there’s a lot of risk with our pitching staff as well. Urias took the diet a little too far. The dude looks like he needs to eat some hamburgers or burritos. Kershaw’s elbow is hanging on by a thread after 2454 career innings. Gonsolin’s offseason shoulder work seems to have helped, but there’s obviously cause for concern. Bauer is a workhorse and would really help keep the staff and bullpen healthy by eating innings, but we don’t know when he’ll be back. Mark lists him as the number 4 for some reason. He’s a 1 on most staffs, a 2 on just about any other staff. And that includes the Mets with oft injured DeGrom and 82 year old Max Scherzer who’s arm will fall off this season.
It was fun watching Michael Grove last night. He went through Grisham, Nola and Abrams like a hot knife through soft butter. For a guy with control issues, seeing him chew through quality hitters without throwing a ball was beyond impressive. I sure would have liked to see the radar gun readings during that inning. Is he our future closer?
The “healthy” Cody Bellinger looks just like the “injured” one! That’s a problem
Bellinger looks lost at the plate. He is swinging from his ass trying to pull every pitch rather than go with the pitch the other way. He is late on every pitch and under the ball with his upright stance. He should go back to his stance at the end of last season and playoffs. He is one stubborn dude.
From what I hear, Cody is working with the hitting coaches every day and they regard him as very coachable. I think it is only the fans on the outside who conclude otherwise. Old Habits are hard to break at game time speed.
He’s racking up K’s at a record pace. Sad to see that he didn’t fix himself over the offseason. He has the talent, maybe he needs a referral to Pepiot’s psychologist? Maybe Pillar or Lux will out-hit him and take his spot.
Gonsolin could be great this year.
Bauer, if he gets to pitch, could be average at best this year.
Bellinger can K from 5 different stances and 3 grips. Worrisome.
Great stuff Bums! Very thought provoking.
Are you still rooting for Joc, now that he’s a Giant? Any Joc Predictions? I’ll take the under on 800 OPS.
I always pull for Joc. I rarely if ever make predictions about players and that includes Joc. I was happy he didn’t have to play in Japan this year. It will be interesting to see if Zaidi’s team will get more out of Joc.
I can’t get myself to write much on baseball blogs so I just drop in and do drive bys.
Price, Bauer, and Pollock are payroll reduction trade candidates. Trading Pollock would give Taylor a regular job in LF, open second for Lux, and let Justin and Muncy share third and DH.
It is popular for haters to believe Buer will be average. He sure wasn’t average in 2021 (2.59 ERA & 1.003 WHIP).
He certainly doesn’t have the stats to put him on a HOF trajectory so he has shown a capability to be average more often than not.
He hasn’t pitched much lately.
He didn’t pitch as well after glue fingers were outlawed.
What does hate have to do with it?
True, Bauer could be average this year if he pitches, but I don’t understand the “average at best” comment.
Are you saying there is no way he pitches well this year? And if that’s what you are saying, how did you reach that conclusion?
Look at his stats. There were years that he was average. Why wouldn’t there be a chance that he would have a below average year?
When someone says somebody could be average at best do you always interpret that as one has no way of pitching well?
Back to you Jefe’.
Yes, that’s exactly how I would interpret that comment. To me your comment means the best he could pitch would be to have average results. I guess we’re arguing semantics here and not pitching quality.
Sorry Bums, but I agree with STB. When I look at stats, I look for a pattern or trajectory. When I see bad years, I look for injuries. Trevor’s stats look like he figured something out and got better at age 27, right when he entered his prime. The following year, he regressed and was traded mid season. The following two years, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Your statement about the sticky stuff is flat out wrong. MLB announced that they would start enforcing the foreign substance rule on June 15 last year. Trevor’s ERA on that date was 2.64. He made just 3 more starts after that and finished with a 2.59 ERA lowering his ERA in the process while facing Arizona, SF and SD. One could argue that he was better after taking away the sticky stuff.
Definitely concerned about Dodger starting pitching depth, but like most of you I am comfortable standing pat and seeing what develops. I am very excited about our young arms but have no expectations this season for this group other than occasional innings throughout the season. I get the feeling AF is hoping for what the Giants experienced last season — i.e. a few mid-tier pitchers having career years.
Offensively, I do not agree that the Dodgers will be a juggernaut. Maybe on paper they are, but I am concerned they will be feast or famine, relying on the HR more than they should. Relying on the HR has worked in the past, but it can be problematic when, at the same time, you are auditioning pitchers.
Praying for health — Mookie’s hip and back, JT’s hamstrings, Muncy’s elbow, Bellinger’s approach at the plate.
I think it is way too early to worry about how things are going to shake out. I also think fans commenting on Price’s mental toughness or desire to even be here is way off base. The guy volunteered to do what ever the team needs. I want that kind of player on my team. Also, I do not give two hoots in hell how Bellinger hits after 8 spring games. I care what he hits when the bell rings. He has three coaches giving him advice and he does not need any from the peanut gallery. For you younger folks, that is what they used to call the top seats in a theater where the pricing was the cheapest. Kind of like general admission at Dodger Stadium where you can get a serious nosebleed. But also a spectacular view of the field. Although the players do look a little like ants. AF has a plan. I have not always agreed with it, but what the hell do I know?
I have heard the same thing that Bluto posted about Maddux Bruns. He will likely start at A Ball, just to get his legs, but he could rise quickly. He might be the first 20-year-old since a 20-year-old lefty debuted in 2008.
It’s time for MLB to make a decision on Bauer.
Dodgers do have some pretty impressive young pitchers, some may make MLB debuts this summer.
Cody Bellinger needs to get off to a good start, just to help with confidence.
David Price is somewhat of a mystery. Saw him pitch a few times last year, just something missing. Maybe his location at times.
If Tony Gonsolin stays healthy I expect him to be very good. His stuff definitely plays up.
The DH will help keep players healthy since the Dodgers plan to use several players in the role just to get them off their feet and keep the bat in the line-up.
It will be interesting to see how the rotation plays. Anderson was brought into start, according to Roberts. Yes, he did look good.
I agree with Mark 100% on not making moves to acquire another starting rotation arm at the expense it would require. Plus, who’s out there? Unless something dropped in AF’s lap for some position prospects, I say we can piece this rotation together for a year while the youngsters get ready. I still think we will see contributions this season from Pepiot and Miller perhaps.
But I have seen some extremely good arms this spring. One after another actually. I haven’t looked up the stats but my eyes see some quality pitching day after day. I know some has come against over-matched minor league hitters but not all.
So let’s think out of the box for a minute where we might have starting pitching that isn’t exactly on the radar. Guys who have started in their careers who may have moved to the pen. Maybe they were buried in a rotation elsewhere or seen at some point as not being a starter. Maybe that’s different now. Let’s just toss out some possibles:
BullPen has some great thoughts. Grove has started 40 games in MiLB, Burrow 109 starts in organized baseball, Fulmer 66 MiLB starts and 15 in the Bigs. I would add as food for thought Phil Bickford w/37 starts in MiLB, Andre Jackson w/61 MiLB starts and looks the part, Mitch White76 MiLB starts and 4 in the Bigs, Daniel Hudson has has 2 TJ”s but 126 starts in pro ball, and maybe down the road Fergie has 57 MLB starts.
Added with Bauer and Price (who has become Bigfoot) we’d only need 1 or 2 of these guys to be a bottom of the rotation starter to eat some innings. With the line up we are throwing out there, our offense should score runs. We shouldn’t need Cy Young to be a 4th or 5th starter.
I would go to 6 starters until the all-star break giving some of these guys a serious look at starting. Way too many quality arms to pull and panic move at this time.
Tonight’s lineup 9PM EST
HITTERS H-ABRBI HR SB AVG
C. Taylor2B 3-9 1 0 0 .333
M. MuncyDH 1-6 0 0 0 .167
J. Turner3B 2-13 0 0 0 .154
C. BellingerCF 3-15 0 0 0 .200
K. PillarRF 0-3 0 0 0 .000
H. AlbertoSS 1-2 0 0 0 .500
G. LuxLF 1-8 2 1 0 .125
A. BarnesC 3-8 3 1 0 .375
E. Rios1B 5-8 4 1 0 .625
Andre JacksonSP
Only two hits so far, both by Turner. HR and a single.
That’s what Pillar brings…
Almost feels like a myriad of positive player development news today.
This on Nastrini:
Nick Nastrini’s control was so bad he had to leave UCLA, Kiley McDaniel said he looked better than Bobby Miller in the Fall
Maddux Bruns may have had the best stuff and the worst command in the 2021 draft, and now he looks phenomenal
It’s incredible that this keeps happening
All teams will store their baseball’s in humidor’s this year. If Bellinger looks as bad come mid May as he does now, they are going to have to make some adjustments.
I’ll start with Gonsolin. It’s nice seeing Gonsolin, Kershaw, JT, and Bellinger healthy. They all labored through injuries last year and very much looked it, but now all appear healthy as a horse (at least physically in Bellinger’s case). With Gonsolin and Kershaw, I think we’re seeing early on how a big a difference it’s making in their play. If we can get 40 combined healthy starts from Gonsolin and Kershaw this year, it will be huge.
I have no faith in Heaney. Dodgers may help him figure it out, but if they do it will be a long process. If he can pitch well in long relief after the all star break, I’ll count it as a win. I feel the same about Price. Last year was the year for him to make his big Dodgers contribution, and he laid an egg. He may have the want and desire again, but I think the arm is done, at least by Dodger standards.
I think we’re going to get a lot of bullpen starts this year. Pepiot looked pretty damn good against the Padres, but his control is still a wild card. If we’re getting a lot of bullpen starts, he could be an asset this year for us giving us 2 maybe 3 innings of solid work. If he starts walking guys, onto the next reliever. Beeter’s repertoire is pretty limited, so he’d have to be a similar asset in bullpen games hoping the fastball can get him through 1 or 2 innings. I think we can count on White and Jackson giving us at least 3 innings most starts before handing it over.
I don’t think we see Miller this year, and maybe Knack comes up late if he can avoid getting hit as hard. Of the top three pitching prospects, I think Pepiot is the only one ready now for relief work or bullpen starts. I’d wait as long as possible on May. Depending on what happens with Buehler and Urias long term deals, he’s pretty important to the long term plans.
I think the league will clear Bauer to play, and he’ll be traded immediately. Inserting him into the rotation cures a lot of potential problems, but it’s probably the right decision. So, yes, I think we need to trade for a starter. I was hoping to sign Rodon on a 1 year deal, but he actually got more years. I’m hearing Sean Manaea’s name and I think that makes sense. Shouldn’t cost much and he’ll eat innings. We only need him for a year anyway.
Dodgers send Carson Fulmer, Michael Grove, Ryan Pepiot, Mike Wright to minor league camp
47 players remain in major league camp
Bellinger should be sent to minor league camp until he can figure things out.