There is no denying that Freddie Freeman is one of the best players in baseball. He is a stone-cold hitter and would really help the Dodgers, this year… but at what cost? Freddie Freeman will be 33 this season. Do you really want him blocking 22-year-old Miguel Vargas who really could be ready later this year, but who really needs to play 1B in the majors? The Dodgers have put Miguel on a “fast-track” because he has the advanced bat-to-ball skills to handle the challenge. He understands his right-handed swing mechanics, controls the strike zone, and uses the entire field. Vargas lacks speed and quick-twitch athleticism… kind of like the other Miguel… Cabrera. If he plays 3B, he will be a below-average defender, but at 1B he would be solid.
I think Andrew Friedman is just driving up the price the Braves have to pay for Freeman. It really makes NO SENSE for the Dodgers to sign him with prospects like Vargas, Busch, and Pages waiting in the wings. You have to look at the team you have and what it will look like a year or two down the road. Here’s what I think the team will look like in the future:
2023
- Lux SS
- Betts RF
- Smith C
- Muncy 2B
- Bellinger CF
- Vargas 1B
- Busch DH
- Pages LF
- Rios 3B
2024
- Lux SS
- Betts RF
- Smith 3B
- Muncy 2B
- Vargas 1B
- Bellinger CF
- Cartaya C
- Pages LF
- Busch DH
Of course, Wilman Diaz, Kody Hoese, Luis Rodriguez, Eddys Leonard, Jose Ramos, Jorbit Vivas, and others could have a say in that as well. Andrew Friedman knows that to keep building a sustainable winner, you just can’t keep signing free agents like they are going out of style. You have to keep dipping into the system. That’s a big reason why Freddie Freeman will not be a Dodger. Well, that and his $30 million dollar salary will result in a CBT Payment of about $30 Million over and above his salary.
BTW, did you know that Max Muncy had a higher WAR than Freddie Freeman last year? Just sayin’…
No to Nelson Cruz & Joe Kelly
He did well the first half of 2021 playing in the Twins Launching Pad but tanked when he went to Tampa Bay. He’s like Albert…. just too old. He has been in the AL all his career and may struggle in 2022 if he comes to the NL. It’s a hard “no” to me. With the Twin last season, he had a .903 OPS and was then traded to the Rays for the second half of the season, where his OPS was .725. Gavin Lux’s OPS was .773 in the second half. HARD NO!
I liked Joe Kelly… but not at $17 million guaranteed. I thought he might get a 1-year deal at $5 to 6 Million. Good Luck, Machine Gun! Craig Kimbrel is on the market… I’d rather have Kenley than Kimbrel! In fact, I do believe the Dodgers will try and sign Jansen and I know he wants to be a Dodger.
The Past is not Always the Future
Last year, we saw a few minor leaguers from the Dodger farm system. Unfortunately, most of them did not make a great impression. Let’s take a quick look at them:
- Luke Raley – The outfielder hot .182 in 66 AB’s. That’s avery small sampling, but he was never expected to be anything but a 5th outfielder. He could do it in 2022 or he could traded or released.
- Zach McKinstry – he started out well, got hurt and ws never the same. He hit .215 in 158 AB’s. Never expected to be more than a utilityman, he could be on the team, traded or released.
- Sheldon Neuse – Technically, he was released, but I think he is in the organization. He hit .169 in 65 AB’s. Nothing to see here, folks… move along.
- Justin Bruihl – A LH specialist, he posted a solid 2.89 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. He stands to make the team in 2022.
- Mitch White – He was up and down more than a Duncan Yo-Yo, but his 1.18 WHIP belies his 3.66 ERA. He has a shot.
- Evan Phillips – A late-season pickup, he has some very overpowering stuff.
- Garrett Cleavinger – He looked lost at times and lights-out at other times. I think this power lefthander could be a high-leverage reliever in 2022.
- Darien Nunez – His 8.22 ERA in 7.2 innings dos not match his 1.57 WHIP. He has filthy stuff… the only question is can he harness it?
Of course, most of the abovementioned players will not make it, but there will be surprises. One player who did not pitch much, but whom I think will make a major impact is Victor Gonzalez! Michael Grove will start the season in the minors but he is being converted into a reliever and he has a live arm. These players are just-in-case-they-need-them players. You don’t count on them, but some will surprise you. We knew about Justin Bruihl last year, but who thought he would come up and put up a 2.89 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP?
Au contraire mon frere. I think Andrew Freedman learned his lesson from not investing in the team in 2016. At that time they were waiting until they top prospects to arrive and mature. Instead, he is now balancing the future with the requirement to win in the present. The Dodgers are currently on track to be the Braves on the 90’s. A decade long dynasty with just one World Series win to show for it. It makes perfect sense to go out and get an elite hitter to augment the upcoming prospect package of Pages, Busch and Vargas. Especially considering that Max Muncy is going to get paid soon, it could be that he’s just not in their long term plans with his lifetime 240 batting average.
I could see a likely scenario that looks like this. AJ Pollock is in the last year of his deal this year. He has a $10M player option next season that he’ll likely turn down and will be replaced with Pages / Outman in left field. Max Muncy is in the second to last year on his deal. He’ll cash in after the 23 season where Busch will take his place at 2B. Vargas is destined to be a DH with some occasional time at 1st and 3b with Rios taking over 3B duties after this year or next depending of whether or not the Dodgers pick up his club option at 16M.
While Max Muncy had a higher overall WAR last year, his offensive WAR was lower than Freeman. And doesn’t anyone really put a lot of stock into defensive WAR? I think not.
Here’s what we’ll look like in 2024.
C Smith and Cartaya R
1B Freeman L
2B Busch L
3B Rios L
SS Lux L
LF Pages R
CF Belli L
RF Betts R
DH Vargas R
Lux? Are you sure he will be ss anywhere? Don’t think that will happen in our lifetime.
Looks like this year’s righty hitting infield utility guy is going to be Hanser Alberto. That one came out of nowhere. He hits lefties extremely well but can’t hit righties at all.
Plays second, third and short.
He’s probably an improvement over Sheldon Neuse though.
One year deal with a team option for a second year.
Freeman will not be a Dodger, The Braves are finally in intense contract negotiations per Jim Bowden and they can certainly afford him after reading that their profit last year was $100 million and with team friendly contracts on Accuna and Albies. The DH cancels any concern for his age. His wife is from the South and likes spending more time there than in California. I agree with Mark ,Freeman will cost us a draft pick and put us way over the luxury tax threshold. AF is connected to every free agent out there because he knows he’s not signing Freeman.
It’s nice to dream, but Freeman is the face of the Braves franchise, has been with them his entire career, they just won a WS with him, and the Braves franchise is not poor.
Things have gone dark because the Braves now know what the offers are to Freeman and are now seriously negotiating based on that intel. Smart strategy by the Braves, actually. Why get in a bidding war? Wait and see what the market is for him and calibrate your negotiations.
That said, Miguel Vargas is not Freddie Freeman and likely never will be, as much we like the ability of the Dodgers organization to develop talent.
Miguel Vargas is being “fast-tracked” by the Dodgers.
Every step of the way, he had gotten better. He came to the US later than some players and is now 22, but as an 18-year-old, he was a man among boys in AZL and Pioneer Rookie Leagues. He struggled a bit in 75 ABs at GL as an 18-year-old, but the next year started at GL and hit .325. Of course, he lost his season to COVID at 20 years old. Then at 21 he hit .314 at GL and was moved to Tulsa, where he hit .325 in 327 ABs. He OPS’ed .906 for the year.
He will likely start at OKC this season and he is similar to Miggy Cabrera, but progress is not linear… he may keep it up or not, but he has looked very good right about now. I hope they move him to 1B. He will be a very solid MLB PLayer and has a shot at stardom.
I’m with you Mark, the Dodgers in your analysis, While FF is a wish not a necessity because the team doesn’t need it, strengthening the bench was a necessity, the team suffered last year from a weak bench, Hanser Alberto is a good option to strengthen the bench, my option was Harrison but I’m fine with Alberto, today with Alberto, the Dodgers bench is better, he is a good player.
Another need Freidman will surely address is finding a closer and Kenley Jansen, at the moment, is the best option unless they want to give that role to Treinen who had 5 saves in 9 chances, 4 BS.
That 5 saves in 9 chances is a Bullcrap statistic. Not one of those blown saves happened in the 9th inning, so are they really blown saves? What about his 32 holds. That’s more like 4 blown in 37 chances. Kenley blew 5 in 38 chances. Pretty damn close to the same production except Treinen was always called upon against the toughest part of the order.
The reason the Braves only won one championship, in those years, was not a lack of investment, they went for the best: McGriff, Shefield, Castilla, Galarraga, Drew, etc, etc
The main reason they only won one championship is that Glavine and Maddux weren’t that good in October, Glavine is No.1 in losses and Maddux is second in postseason losses in all-time history.
I am in the same boat as Mark, FF will not be a Dodger and the reasons that Mark explains in his analysis I agree 100% with them.
The team of the future without considering free agents:
SS TT (they will extend it)
LF Betts
CF Bellinger
1B Vargas
DH Bush
C Smith / DC
RF Pages
3B leonard
2B Lux
I feel strongly that KJ will not be re-signed. He probably wants too many years that AF doesn’t want to do and it’s time to see what Trienen, Graterol and Kahnle can do in the 7th, 8th and 9th. He’ll put those $$ into more SP and/or Freeman
I have no clue what AF has in mind. All I can do as a fan is sit back and wait. Saw a video of Max and Cody taking BP yesterday. Max did not look like he was swinging hard, just making contact instead. But Cody was crushing some baseballs.
Anyone know if it has yet been decided by how many players the rosters will be expanded at the beginning of the season and for how long that will last? I think it’s a foregone conclusion that they won’t be starting the season with just 26 man rosters.
I’d love to take a sneak peak at Friedman’s Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, Plan Z lists.
I’d guess if Freeman is signed, then Trea won’t be extended. If Freeman doesn’t sign, we have the superstar money to resign Trea.
If Juan Soto is a goal for 1-2 years from now, then do we really try hard as we can for Freeman, or do we just drive up the price and let Atl pay more than they want to for him?
I’m sure there’s lots of “if this, then that” and I for one would love to see their thinking into all that.
I’d rather see the Dodgers extend Trea Turner.
Still looks like the number one issue is pitching depth, rotation.
Twins Acquire Sonny Gray From Reds
By TC Zencka | March 13, 2022 at 12:34pm CDT
The Reds and Twins are in agreement on a deal that will send right-hander Sonny Gray from Cincinnatti to Minnesota, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). The Reds are receiving the 26th overall selection of the 2021 draft, right-hander Chase Petty. In exchange, the Twins will receive Gray and minor league right-hander Francis Peguero. Both teams have announced the deal, making it official.
Mark Feinsand reporting that Nelson Cruz is deciding between us and the Padres and will decide soon.
I’m not sure if that’s soon soon or soon, JP Morosi time.
Any minute now time…
Could be in 5 min. Could be in April. But anything in between, and he called it!
Friedman is just driving up the price for Preller.
All I would like to see is some decision making today. Camp opened officially. I care less who he adds to the roster. I prefer Freeman, but if it does not happen, I am ok with that too. ESPN insider also reporting that the Dodgers have some interest in Trevor Story.
I realize a team can’t win without pitching and defense and yet I am willing to live a rotation of:
Walker Buehler
Julio Urias
Andrew Heaney
Tony Gonsolin
Clayton Kershaw
With depth coming from:
David Price, Andre Jackson, Landon Knack, Bobby Miller and Ryan Pepiot.
If I were to trade for a pitcher it would for Frankie Montas using one from Gonsolin, Jackson, Knack plus whatever else might required to get Montas.
I would wave Rios, Busch, Vargas, Muncy and Knack in front of Oakland for Montas and Olsen and let Oakland find a trade for Muncy.
SS Trea
RF Betts
1B Olsen
C Smith
CF Bellinger
3B Justin
2B Lux
LF Pollock
DH Pederson
Buehler, Urias, Montas, Heaney, Kershaw
Are you gonna let Joc keep his pearls?
No. He will have to come up with something new. He can keep the cigar thing though.
When no one was talking about Nelson Cruz as a possibility, I wrote this a few days ago:
DodgerHorse
March 10, 2022 at 4:46 pm
A deal with DH Nelson Cruz for a year to serve as a bridge so that Vargas and Bush are ready next year makes a lot of sense to me:
SS Trea
RF Betts
CF Bellinger
DH N.Cruz
1B Muncy
3B J.Turner
C Smith
LF Pollock
2B Lux
Not Freeman, Pujols was also 32 years old when he signed with the Angels, NO THANKS.
Yes to an extension to TT.
Yes to Bauer.
Bring back CK22, KJ and Kelly on short deals, the Dodgers have to be healthy financially to sign Buehler, Bellinger and Urias.
A Buehler, Miller, May, Urias, Pepiot starting pitching rotation will be wonderful.
playball !!!
Well, it could all still happen except for Kelly.
Steve Cohen, Mets owner said the Mets “probably will” go over a $290-million payroll for the 2022 season. New York’s current payroll for the upcoming season is listed at $244,399,399, according to Spotrac. A fourth luxury-tax threshold of $290 million was recently added in the new collective bargaining agreement. It has been dubbed the “Steve Cohen tax” due to the owner’s willingness to spend.
Any team that goes over the fourth tax threshold will be subject to an overage fee of 80%, with that number rising to 90% on a second consecutive year and 110% on a third.
If you’re going to have a penalty tax named after you, you’d damn well better make sure you’re the first one who has to pay it.
Will the Dodgers keep Bauer in the rotation this year. If he is suspended it won’t be a long one. Who here wants him and who doesn’t? My vote is to keep him
Agree. Keep him. He was not found guilty except being stupid. Between he lines he is better than any starter now available .
Keep him, but assign a chaperone to him until his contract is finished.
Children need supervision.
So you must believe his accuser?
Leave the accuser out of it and use the chaperone to help him make better decisions on who not to date.
The career span of a major league pitcher is short lived and MLB’s overstepping their bounds by suspending Bauer based on accusations alone at the very highest point of his job statis needs addressing. In other words, Bauer needs to sue MLB to put Manfred in check. That clown seems to believe his power is beyond all. Is he really the only one who can remove him? But yes, keep him until he earns some of his cost back at least however by whatever method. Dodgers should sue MLB as well.
What has Bauer done for the betterment of MLB?
His job. Sadly he was also reckless outside of his job but at what point should MLB be able to do something harmful to his living? Yeah I know that Manfred is top dog of the commission but there are matters that could come from his prejudice simply because he thinks he has the power to do so. I’m just using that example because the obvious but t’s in the same ballpark And innocence until proven guilty is only in jury court. That’s the only place that that is mostly true. That isn’t how I’m looking at anyway. Bauer has devoted more time developing his skill than Manfred did at his and to get in the way how Bauer makes his living simply because he chose to is abuse. Manfred is more guilty than Bauer of abuse at least by what can be proven.
No I don’t believe his accuser but do believe he has a history of getting himself into trouble. With him sitting in the punishment room last season it may well have cost the Dodgers a WS victory.
I am being a bit facetious , but still a babysitter may be a worthwhile investment.
I’m sure AF & Doc have taken the temperature of the veterans at least to get a sense of their thoughts on Bauer back in the clubhouse. When Rob gets off the pot, I think Trevor will be cleared to pitch and I will bet that the team, while not thrilled, will accept him back. Especially with the questions about the rotation and the fact we need him. It might be nice to get something for the 40 million. This is business.
Any fans ready to bitch and boycott can just get in line with all the other crap that’s happened.
We need a “Fan Appreciation Year”.
BRAVO Phil. I could not have said it any better. In this country you are supposed to be innocent until PROVEN guilty and NOT the other way around. That has NOT happened nor will it.
Let’s look at it from this angle, if I am paying someone $35 million a year, I think paying another $500k a year to provide him with around the clock 24/7 protection makes sense, ( especially in the case ). Just so he doesn’t accidentally hurt himself or others.
Just tie his tongue to his cheek and take away his Twitter account
All of this stuff about innocence and guilt and the burden of proof has to do with criminal prosecutions. MLB isn’t tied to that standard. They can and do punish based on a different standard.
If they do, let’s see how that works out !
The contest for Nelson Cruz between the Dodgers and Padres has been decided.
The winner is…………………………………………The Nationals who signed him for 2 years.
I’m not sorry we didn’t get Cruz. We’re better off rotating the DH spot.
Yanks trade Gary Sanchez and Urshela to the Twins for Kiner-Falefa and Donaldson.
Make that a 1 year, $13MM deal with a mutual option for year 2 on Cruz.
Cruz has reportedly signed with Nationals. I prefer the rotating DH strategy anyway.
And the DH means that Freeman wouldn’t be blocking Vargas from playing 1B. I know nothing of Vargas’s fielding ability. But if all he can do is hit, then DH is fine. (The fact that Vargas’s father was a star in Cubas gives me hope that his glove is at least OK.)
Hansel Alberto looks like a fine pickup: a proven major leaguer who makes contact and has a good, versatile glove. We had hoped McKinstry, a rookie, could succeed Kike–a tall order–but after McK got hurt, he struggled. And the bench really and truly really sucked. From Chad Moriyama: “The four-headed monster of Billy McKinney, Sheldon Neuse, Luke Raley, and Steven Souza Jr. put up a whopping .163/.239/.285/.524 line with a 44 wRC+, so Alberto was almost literally twice as good as them last year, and an improvement from -2 WAR to 1 WAR is as impactful as getting an All-Star to replace an average regular.” But of course it would be nice if McKinstry comes back strong.
Still holding out hope for Freeman. If Trea Turner really longs for living on the East Coast, why wouldn’t an Orange County lad come back home?
For those of you who are chomping at the bit to have Trevor Bauer back, I would remind you that he likely cost us the World Series and has hamstrung us financially as well. He has betrayed the team and the fanbase. I will certainly never forgive him, and you should think about that too.
MLB ‘s investigation can only now begin, since player personnel matters have been suspended during the lockout. MLB has not yet interviewed Bauer, let alone discussed the findings from their independent investigation, which may still be incomplete. I understand that they are including the Ohio case as part of the proceedings. This will take awhile.
The question is not whether Bauer is legally innocent or guilty, but whether his behavior, in aggregate, violates MLB’s domestic violence policy or any contractual morals, conduct or sportsmanship standards.
When MLB presents its findings, Bauer can accept them or appeal, in which case it goes to arbitration. If he loses in arbitration, he can, of course, sue. Any suspension may apply, in the meantime.
A number of things can happen, but I wouldn’t count on seeing Bauer in spring training. In the meantime, let’s start Ryan Pepiot!
I agree with you Marcia that Bauer will be a public relations nightmare for the Dodgers and he will carry unnecessary baggage to every ballpark he enters. The posters here want him back because at the present time our starting rotation looks weak, but don’t underestimate AF’s magic in fixing our shortfalls now, or at the trading deadline. Remember the Braves won the World Series because of brilliant moves made at the trading deadline. There is a long way to go. AF and the Dodgers did a bad job in checking Bauer’s background and should have seen some signs of his immature behavior from his antics by throwing the baseball over the centerfield fence in the middle of a poor outing .His use of twitter in a negative way also doesn’t help his cause. I’m sure the Dodgers will do the right thing and move on from Bauer by trading him or releasing him and eating most of his salary if not all of it. I’m done with Bauer.
Sign Soler!!!!