I am not a Manfred Man (see what I did there? Not everyone will get that…), but this delay of the baseball season is not on Rob Manfred. It’s on his bosses. He takes his marching orders from them – he does not tell them what to do. Baseball has a huge problem with its ownership. The “have” teams are getting filthy rich and they have a chance to win just about every year. The value of their franchises are increasing day by day, but the “have-nots” who are usually small market teams struggle to even partially fill stadiums and have little chance of winning.
The owners were willing to raise the minimum salary to $700,000.00 from $570,000.00. That happens to apply to about 33% of all MLB players. They were to get a raise… a nice raise! The MLBPA asked for more! The Fake News Media said that Manfred said it was the last, best, and final offer. That was a lie. Here is what Manfred said, right from his own lips:
Let’s look at what the owners offered:
- Bring the DH to the NL (theoretically creating another higher playing job);
- Implement and International Draft of 20 Rounds;
- Raise the minimum salary from $570,000 to $700,000;
A big sticking point is that the MLBPA wants the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) to be at $238 Million while MLB wants it to stay at $220 Million. There are evidently quite a few owners (enough to queer a vote) who are not willing to budge on this. Manfred can only do what the owners want. This is not on Manfred.
The MLBPA was also against the 14-team playoff, but now are saying they are open to it… probably with some other caveat. The MLBPA is also asking for a bonus pool of $100 million for precocious young players. MLB has offered about $30 million. The owners have increased this payout quite a bit because it did not exist last year. The teams most invested in the expanded playoff field are small- and mid-market teams, and they are also the teams that prefer a more restrictive CBT.
Actually, if the MLPBA really wanted to get the entire body of players more money, they would ask for a Salary Cap of about $200 million and a Minimum Salary of $100 million per team. That would get the overall average of MLB Player salaries up considerably, but would also stop the $43 million dollar a year super contracts to players like Max Scherzer, who by the way, has been credited with going bat-shit-crazy and screaming at the MLBPA players present to not accept the last contract offer. My sources were right – it was a “done deal” until Max Max went off! It’s been well-publicized what happened.
I flat-out do not believe what Ross Stripling said about the owners trying to pull a fast one. Maybe they did, but why is no one pointing to aspects of the contract that represent that? It’s just PR. A salary cap and a minimum would get more dollars for the players… overall, but would not allow for the huge contracts given out to Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Max Scherzer, Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and the like. All of those contracts will be boat anchors to their respective teams. But the superstars rule the MLBPA and until the younger players are willing to stand up to them, the young players will continue to get screwed while the few superstars will rake in the big bucks.
I do not think the owners will budge much off of the $220 million CBT… maybe $225 with the expanded 14 team playoffs. If they could agree on an escalation clause each year, maybe tied to the Consumer Price Index or some other marker, then maybe they could reach an agreement. If they agree to a deal shortly, I can see the owners agreeing to pay them their salaries, in full, but if it lasts longer, I do not think the owners should pay them. They should ony pay the “pro-rated amount.”
I think the public sentiment is shifting from the “greedy players” to the “owners.” It’s still all about the Benjamins. The players and the owners have a meeting scheduled for today. At this juncture, anything can happen!
Dodger News
Someone posted this from MLB Trade Rumors on the last thread, but in case you missed it, here it is again:
Right-hander Yadier Alvarez is in camp with the Dodgers, tweets Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register. Alvarez was once a highly-touted prospect, with the Dodgers giving him a $16MM signing bonus in 2015 and Baseball America ranking him as the 26th prospect across the league in 2017. Despite being selected to the team’s 40-man roster prior to the 2019 season, there were concerns with his lack of control. In 2018, he pitched 48 1/3 innings at Double-A with an excellent 30% strikeout rate but a ghastly 20% walk rate.
In 2019, injuries limited him to just 3 2/3 Double-A innings and he was designated for assignment in March of 2020, eventually clearing waivers and being outrighted to the minors. Of course, the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues that year and Alvarez was only able to throw 3 2/3 Arizona Complex League innings in 2021. Despite all of those ups and downs, Alvarez is still relatively young, turning 26 on Tuesday. One silver lining of losing his roster spot two years ago is that he is not affected by the ongoing lockout, giving him a chance to show the Dodgers’ brass that he still has something to offer.
Another hurler looking for a bounceback with the Dodgers is Carson Fulmer, whom the club selected from the Reds in the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft in December. Originally selected 8th overall by the White Sox in the 2015 draft, Fulmer also cracked Baseball America’s Top 100, coming in at #70 in 2016. However, he has struggled to establish himself in the majors, putting up a walk rate above 10% in each of the past six seasons. After bouncing around the waiver wire multiple times in recent years, he eventually cleared waivers in May of 2021. Plunkett spoke to the 28-year-old, who credits his former Vanderbilt teammate Walker Buehler with his current opportunity. “I think that he had chirped at the front office a little bit and tried to get me over here,” Fulmer joked. “He was excited (when the Dodgers acquired Fulmer). At the end of the day, he knows what I’m capable of. He just wanted me to be in the right place, the right situation.” Much like Alvarez, the loss of his roster spot gives Fulmer the benefit of participating in Spring Training and the upcoming minor league season, despite the lockout.
If Yadier Alvarez has his head on straight, he is a real talent. Keep an eye on him and Fulmer!
Talks to resume today, expanded playoffs a hot topic.
Excellent points, Mark!
The coverage of the lockout from national sources seems to consistently praise the MLBPA and bash the greedy owners. From ESPN, Athletic, LA Times, MLB radio and Fangraphs, they seem to universally side with the MLBPA. I think both sides are at fault, and really find it difficult sympathize with players like Scherzer, Cole, Miller, and Lindor who are on the MLBPA executive committee. They seem to represent the agents more than their rank and file members. The CBT primarily benefits the top 5% of players only, and that is the major obstacle now.
In reviewing the Dodger payroll for 2021, the following players stuck out as being overpaid, especially when considering playoff availability:
Bauer – $38 million cash salary
Price – $32 million salary, half paid by Red Sox.
Kershaw – $31 million salary. Love him, but unavailable for playoffs.
Pujols – $30 million salary, only $500k paid by Dodgers but huge overpay by Angels.
Bellinger – $16 million salary. Hit mlb low .165 with war of -1.5.
Just 5 players from Dodgers who made $147 million in 2021 under the old CBA and CBT thresholds.
Really hard for me to feel that MLB players are getting a bad deal when owners are overpaying so much for these players. A bigger problem to me is the free agent players with huge long term contracts who underperform and earn significantly more than their value, are diverting resources from the other lower level players. And the Union is holding out mostly for these super rich free agents and their super agents.
The MLBPA also represents players like Michael Grove, James Outman, Eddys Leonard, Andre Jackson, Jacob Amaya, and Jorbit Vivas who are on the 40 man roster making $47,000.
And they also represent players like Mitch White, Andy Burns, Evan Phillips, Phil Bickford, Justin Bruihl, Alex Vesia, Luke Raley, Zach Reks, Zach McKinstry who mostly make the split salary of $97,000 during the year when in the minors.
So, overall yes the owners can negotiate a higher CBT with MLBPA. But a larger problem is the MLBPA has favored its richest players and their agents more than the 40 man minor leaguers who they represent. As far as I can tell, the MLBPA is doing very little for these players on the 40 man roster making $50k to $100k per year.
Instead, the MLBPA is holding out because $43 million per year is not enough for Max Scherzer and his agent.
I am for only the fans. I love the game, not the players nor the owners. I blame both sides equally. I think Manfred is not the best of leaders. I think some of his more radical ideas for change are just a bit too much. I think the players at the top of the pyramid get compensated above what they are really worth. In the old days, you could say that when Koufax, and even Fernando pitched, they were good for at least 10,000 more butts in the seats than an average game. I doubt there is any player in the league today that people would want to see that much. Dodger attendance pretty much always is at the top of the majors, so you cannot say Betts puts that many more fans in the stands. There are very few players in either league I would pay to see. Some who are considered superstars just do not feel that way to me. Seager just got huge money. Would I pay to see him play for a mediocre Texas team? No way. Scherzer for the Mets, only if he were pitching in Dodger Stadium against Buehler. Anyone guess what his record is against the Dodgers? 5-5 with a 2.59 ERA. He has allowed 9 HR’s in 16 games and struck out 105. In the playoffs he is 1-1 against LA. Just using him as an example of a star player whom I would not pay to see unless he was pitching against LA’s ace. I think at least half of the players making 30 mil or more a year are nowhere near worth that much. Bobblehead nights put more fans in the seats than star players. Yasiel Puig, currently in Korea getting ready for the start of their season, has expressed a desire to return and play for the Dodgers. He was shown with old buddy Hyun Jin Ryu.
I see Trevor Bauer is suing Deadspin for defamation. I hope he sues Fat Brett Anderson too…
Wow, it’s quite extraordinary that 5 Dodgers made 147 million in 2021. I also find it extraordinary that in 2021, Manny Machado made $61,000 per official at bat. He made the 2021 MLB minimum in 9.5 at bats.
There is an extraordinary difference between the have’s and the have nots.
Guys on the 40 man that bounce up and down must need an accountant with them full time to figure out how much they are making. Guys making minor league money get a $44,000 bump the 1st time they make the 40 man. $88K, the 2nd time. While in the Show they get the MLB minimum prorated for the days they are up. It’s quite a math problem if you are being moved up and down and are not under an annual contract.
While we are comfortable these days tossing around numbers like a $240 million CBT, a $700,00 minimum and the killer for me; the 85million “Pre-arbitration Bonus Pool” for the “soon becoming haves”.
The Union wants to have a $700k minimum, which I support, but add a hugh slush fund to pay 1 to 3 year prearbitration players portions of 85 million based on awards and an undetermined WAR stat. For 150 guys. The young “becoming haves” are rewarded early in that model. They can’t even wait until arbitration to be overpaid. Even MLB has agreed to pay 1 million per team into this slush fund but that’s not good enough for the Union.
And while we kick around these numbers, I still think the minor leaguers are underpaid despite recent increases and the elimination of 42 teams to do so. The gap between making it and struggling to make it is gigantic. I know the MiLB guys just got pay bumps, improved conditions, housing perks and other improvements but they are still underpaid. That’s where I’d like to see more money go. A guy with a AAA contract now makes $2800 a month. 5 months work = $14000 a year. AA guys make 12K per year. The entire yearly salaries of a AA roster can be paid by 5 Manny Machado at bats. It would cost an MLB teams basically peanuts with the numbers we are tossing around to pay minor leaguers $30 K per year minimum or their monthly wage for 12 months. Still too low but better.
The minor leaguers need to make a whole lot more, but they are not part of this negotiation and that’s a fight for another day!
I did not expect to see Yadier back in camp. My son still has his Rancho Quakes jersey he won on Star Wars night back in 2017.
The Dodgers didn’t just pay him $16m, they paid a $16m penalty in addition for going over their international signing limit. So Yadier was a $30m investment.
First time I saw him pitch I understood why. He can throw high 90s with what looks like no effort at all. Unlike the somewhat violent mechanics of a player like Walker B, Alvarez’s motion is smooth and effortless. But he was raw and wild. Which didn’t surprise anybody at the time, given his age. His progression seemed to have come to a halt for entirely non-baseball reasons. I was told he was nearly uncoachable by one of the low level coaches on the quakes who was still with the club the next year.
Alvarez always stuck with me for several reasons. One being a late evening in summer 2017. My son was working on getting a Dodger helmet signed by the whole team. He was waiting for his favorite player (DJ Peters) to come out of the Locke room. DJ was always last out. Probably because it took a half hour to wash the massive quantity of hair he had at the time. Yadier came out early and signed his helmet. A couple minutes later I heard the distinctive noise of a revving sports car. I was chatting with a security guard who was standing nearby. He said that was Yadiers Lamborghini (it might have been something else, I don’t remember. But it was a supercar). Yadier drove off. The guard then pointed out the 10 year old economy car parked in the player lot. He said “That’s DJ’s”. The difference between a $400k signing bonus and $16m. The contrast was even more stark when one considers that DJ won the CA League MVP and Yadier didn’t do squat in A ball. DJ made the show (albeit briefly) and is now playing in Korea. Dodgers ate $400k on DJ. Far cry from $30M.
I’m glad AF isn’t making signings like that anymore. Giving teenagers $16m is rarely a good idea. But giving a teenager from an impoverished country that kind of money is the equivalent of giving a billion dollars to a kid from the US. Just not very smart. Especially if the player has personal issues.
If the Dodgers get a single MLB inning out of him, we should consider ourselves lucky. I hope he can turn it around.
Never forget – Progress is not linear!
He’s still only – what? – 25?
Effortless high 90s fastball, but also had a good curve and slider. His control/command was atrocious and he had a Yasiel Puig level of emotional maturity.
There’s always hope people can grow up.
Cuba was an untapped resource for MLB talent but so many of them (most all) turned out to be complete busts. The Dodgers had another horrible overpay…forget his name but wound up getting charged with sexual assault … Dodgers managed to pawn off the contract to the Braves.
That was Hector Olivera whom we signed for about 60 mil.
One good thing is we managed to get Alex Wood back from the Braves when we finally unloaded him.
Alvarez will be 26 tomorrow. All together now…………………
Happy Birthday to You
May You Finally Wind Up In Blue
You Look Like A Real Pitcher
Now Please Pitch Like One Too
I feel like easing up on Manfred only because his parents punished him enough with that name. He is, after all, just a mouthpiece for the owners. One would hope that all the grim realities of the world would make both owners and players get over themselves and play ball.
On that note, it’s a lot of fun reading that Cartaya is looking good in camp and that Muncy says he prefers playing 2B to 1B, so please bring Freddie over.
I knew Freddie grew up in OC, but not until today did I realize he attended El Modena High in Orange, and was planning to attend Cal State Fullerton–go Titans!–before the Braves drafted him. Sounds like a guy who maybe grew wondering what it would be like to have a fabulous home with maybe a dock down in Newport…. Yeah, I think the Dodgers would be the frontrunner, and moving Max into an 2B/DH/1B rotation would also help Lux develop as a super UT–a lefty complement to Taylor.
Now if only Putin would pull back….
Mark, if you look at NBA star salaries, they’re even higher than MLB’s. Plenty of boat anchors, too. I give you Russell Westbrook’s $44,000,000 salary for next season as an example (fortunately Lakers and not Dodgers). All of this thanks to their salary cap and their policy which stipulates dollar amounts for “supermax” extension contracts. Also, the NBA has, I believe, a 50/50 revenue sharing between league and players, which supports its generous salary structure. Teams like the Lakers can have as many as three players making “supermax” salaries (out of 15-man rosters) which puts you up against the salary cap. Then you fill out the roster with veterans’ minimum salaries at roughly two- to three million each. Be careful what you wish for when it comes to a salary cap system.
STB – that made me chuckle.
Would love to see Freddie in Blue for sure, especially with the DH coming.
Hard to believe that we are nearly at the second anniversary of Covid being “a thing”. Even in a pandemic the time seems to fly by.
On that note one of our gang is another year older today, Happy Birthday Badger!!
Hope you have a great day.
Badger does not frequent this place anymore… and there are many others as well. They did their “drive-by political shootings” for years, but then when I do it, they suddenly don’t want to hear it. They like to play offense, not defense. On Facebook, I have had over 40 of my (former) Liberal Friends defriend me since the election. Many of them blasted Trump every day, but it’s only a one-way street because they are right since they are smarter than us. I have very few Liberal Friends who are still friends with me… and who can have a rational conversation about politics. Of course, that likely applies to ones on the Right too, which is why I went back to banning politics on this blog. This has been a public service announcement.
I went to Dodger Stadium this past Thursday to pick up my season ticket holder gift (a nice long sleep dry fit LA shirt).
Felt nice to be back, and felt odd that we may not be there for a couple more months.
So long as they don’t screw with my All Star game tickets I”m ok. We already got screwed out of the 2020 All Star game, and it would be absurd to lose another one 2 years later.