Fangraphs has their ZIPS Projections while Baseball Prospectus has their PECOTA Projections. These are systems that take a player’s past performance and try to project the most likely outcome for the following season. It allegedly looks at all of the numbers, and all the numbers that make up the numbers, and the numbers underlying those numbers, to see which players are more likely to repeat their success and which ones benefited from good fortune. Then they make predictions as to how that player will fare in the coming season.
Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs released a preview of the ZIPS Projections for the Dodgers in 2022 last week in this tweet:
Maybe this is what baseball-starved rabid fans need in the winter and especially in the Winter of MLB Discontent, but I regard the projections about the same as I do a roll of Charmin. Well, maybe not Charmin – it is soft… more like that sandpaper rough industrial stuff.
In so far as these projections go, most are WAG’s – that’s short for Wild Ass Guesses! In most cases, they are way too good or way too bad – they seldom get it right because of the Human Factor. Computers, even with AI still do not have that right.
As an example, how do you rate Cody Bellinger? In 2021, he had a disastrous season that was injury-dominated. According to Baseball-Reference, he had a -1.5 WAR in 2021. That’s bad! That’s really bad, but just two years ago, he had a WAR of 8.6. That’s really, really good. In Mookie Bett’s 8 seasons, he has had a WAR better than that just once. Fangraphs gives Cody Bellinger a 3.1 Projected WAR in 2022, but that is really a WAG. I would suggest that you might be more accurate using this method:
An offseason of working out and getting stronger, instead of resting to rehabilitate from surgery could add “feet” to every flyball from Cody’s bat. Cody could put up a 3.1 WAR and that would be great because an average player puts up about a 2.0 WAR, but Cody has put up numbers three times that in the past, and I always say that if you can do it once, you can do it again. Will he? I don’t know, but it could be fun to watch.
I worry about Max Muncy. With his rehab and probably being unable to work out, what impact will that have on his season? I do not believe the Dodgers will sign Freddie Freeman and I do not see them trading for Greg Olsen. The Dodgers Farm Systems has a wide “breadth” of talent, which means depth as well, but they cannot afford to gut the farm… nor do they need to.
I will go on record as saying that I think Cody Bellinger will put up a WAR over 6.0 and while I will not predict what Max might do because the Dodgers treat injury issues as State Secrets and I have no clue how he is progressing. All I can say is that the Dodgers need Max Muncy to be Max Muncy and Bellinger, both Turners, Mookie, and The Fresh Prince to be what we think they are and all will be fine. Personally, I would wait until the Trade Deadline to look for a starter, but that’s just me.
Of course, the potential exists that there may not even be a season THIS YEAR!
BTW, I still say Clayton Kershaw will retire!
Comments on your comments:
1) I’m about 50-50 on a CK retirement but it wouldn’t surprise me.
2) No way we trade for Greg Olsen – we don’t need either a retired catcher or tight end. Now, as for Matt Olson, unless Max is in much worse shape than they’re letting on, I think the prospect cost isn’t worth it, and even then it would probably make more sense to go after Freddie first, again in order to save the prospects.
3) I don’t agree that we should wait for the trade deadline to go after more starting pitching. Last year we had 8 starters to begin the season and look how that turned out. This year we can count on Buehler and Urias. Heany is a total roll of the dice. Catman may or may not come back completely from his shoulder problems. Price can’t seem to go more than 3 innings. Bauer, even if reinstated, may suffer from all that down time. CK’s arm may fall off. White and Jackson are totally unproven at this point. We need at least one, if not two more starters going into the season, and even that might not prove to be enough. If we wait until the trade deadline, we might find ourselves looking for 4 starters.
STB, I have been shouting your message about the need for starting pitching since we finished the season with 3 starting pitchers only to lose Scherzer. I too have pointed out how much starting pitching we had beginning last season only to have it whittle to where we finished. Sorry Hearny, Catman, Price and perhaps Bauer don’t move the needle for me.
So I’ve been lobbying for some moves to get starting pitching.
But another thought now seems prudent. Maybe we don’t break the bank signing a couple of front line pitchers and provide opportunities for White, Miller, Jackson,Knack, and Pepiot? Are they MLB ready? Will they be rushed to the Big Leagues? Probably. But do any of us really know. They wouldn’t be the first prospects to get a chance early and make a splash. I’m not seeing the threat here of them being a David Clyde. These guys aren’t 18 right out of high school. So, maybe we put up with some struggles next season as that group gets opportunities. I see a real special starting staff in 2023 and beyond. We suck it up for a season. That can’t be worse then acquiring a couple of Hearny types or looking for David Price to do anything except take up a seat on the plane.
I don’t know what AF will do but I’m softening on my preaching about acquiring a couple of expensive front line starters.
Assuming we play.
Amen, Brother!
Preach it!
Phil, most of the guys available in trade (the guys mentioned from the A’s and Reds) aren’t horribly expensive and wouldn’t break the bank. I’m OK with just getting one, preferably with one year of control remaining.
I am not comfortable rushing guys like Miller and Pepiot (the two most likely to have successful careers) when neither of them has had any success whatsoever at AAA. Pepiot didn’t pitch well at OKC and Miller hasn’t even gotten there yet.
We still have a very good team and I’m not ready to just chuck the season because we decided to go with Buehler, Urias and three wild cards. And I’m predicting that AF won’t do that either.
We just disagree on this. At least it gives us something to talk about. I see that Mr. T. agrees with you, but I am undaunted!
STB, it’s all good. I certainly respect your opinion. I think AF will land somewhere in the middle and pick up another inexpensive starter or 2 and mix in a couple of the youngsters. I guess I just don’t share your apprehension about rushing the kids. I view it as an opportunity with their upside being better than a stop-gap guy we might pick up at this point.
I appreciate the civil conversation.
“I appreciate the civil conversation.”
As do I, Phil. Hard to find these days on any subject.
Oh boy, the ZIPS projections are out and Mark is still predicting Clayton Kershaw will retire.
Now, projections are projections. Didn’t work out for the Padres. No idea about Clayton. Will wait and see. But if he’s back, I’m guessing he’s pitching at Dodger Stadium.
But I get it. Not much to talk about. Okay, we’ve had Covid, still have Covid, but at least fans were back in 2021. Now this nonsense. I mean, think about it. No winter meetings, no trades or free agent signings since early December. It’s all nonsense, of course.
It’s actually really annoying. The Hot Stove Season is fun. Now the fire has gone out. But it gets worse. Four of us were planning on going to spring training in Glendale. Planned for over a year. Everybody wants to know what to do. Can’t exactly book reservations. Will we have regular spring training or a shortened version? This is messing with fans and that’s not right.
Why should I care about players, not after Corey Seager turned down $250 million over eight years last spring to remain a Dodger? How much money do you really need? Does he care about the fans? Does Scott Boras care? What about the negotiators on both sides? What about owners and increasing ticket prices, the cost of ballpark food?
I’ve already purchased my season tickets for 2022. I’m sorry I did that. Maybe fans need a seat at the negotiating table. Maybe Mark and Bear should represent us.
Thanks Buff, but I doubt they would listen to the fans anyway. The MLB PR machine will ramp up after this is over and try and put a positive spin on the lockout. If they really gave 2 cents about us, they would have negotiated a pact a long time ago. They keep tweaking the game, and in that sense, it is not the game I grew up loving. Not only will the CBA be negotiated, but potential rule changes. If one new rule proved anything, it is that the 28 man roster in September is not enough. 30 would be better. Pitchers wore out last September. Little tweak type injuries impacted almost all of the teams. As for ZIPS, I have always felt that guessing what a player might do in any season is a waste of time.
Scherzer doing a little spin doctoring of his own. Backing down from an outright statement that he was mishandled by the Dodgers.
5-1 odds his arm falls off next year!
The Chicago Cubs won the world series in 2016, you moron. The Giants won in 2010, 2012, and 2014.
Where did that come from? Voices in your head?
Don’t worry. Things aren’t breaking bad. It’s all good man.
Come on, Walter…
Projections from Zippy the Pin Head. No thanks.
There was a report this morning on Yardbarker that Gonzalez has lost 30 pounds this winter. Should be interesting to see how the weight loss affects his stuff.
He was pretty fat last year. I guess sore feet can do that!
Losing 30 pounds is bound to help!
I’d like to see Julio drop 10-12. He could give it to Striker.
What is the story on David Price?
https://s22927.pcdn.co/dodgers-prospect-bobby-miller-projected-to-make-mlb-debut-in-2022/2022/01/03/
Pepiot, Knack, and Miller could be factors in 2022.
One of them could win a spot quickly.
And Fansided threw out 3 prospects they believed would make for a good trade. Jackson,Hoese, and Miller.
They didn’t suggest who would come to the Dodgers.
… and they are almost always right!
MLB network has severed ties with Ken Rosenthal due to his passed criticism of Rob Manfred.
Fanatics is buying Topps. First they stole their MLB card deal and now they’re swallowing up what’s left of them.
Dodgers are losing Scott Powers, their Director of Quantitative Analysis, to the Astros of all places.
Allegedly, he is going to be Assistant GM… so there is that!
In regard to Pepiot and Miller not pitching well at AAA:
1. Pepiot has never thrown as many innings as last year, so I would equate his poor showing at OKC as being tired at the end.
2. Miller struggled a little at Tulsa, but it was only 9 IP, so I don’t put much stock in it.
3. Clayton never pitched at AAA (except rehab).
4. I put the most stock in their “stuff” and the Dodgers won’t “push” them – they will just have to fix their control issues first… whenever that may be. If they can throw strikes, they will be there. I have no idea when that will be.
5. Landon Knack is ready now.
An angel work me up about 3:30 this morning and told me that Major League opening day will be April 10th and the games lost because of the late opening will NOT be made up.
Thus back to the original 154 game schedule. I like it