Gavin Lux and 2022

Posted By on November 20, 2021

On November 15, I started to write about the impatience some fans have with Gavin Lux, and it imploded into an overall generalization about many fans seeing MiLB stats and believing that those numbers will automatically translate to MLB numbers.  And then when they do not, then many of those some fans want that player to suddenly drop to the bottom of the heap or at the very least banned to AAA to never start again for their MLB team.

I always feel obligated to state that when Lux was drafted in 2016, I was advocating for Bo Bichette to be the Dodgers #1 pick at slot #20.  We know that did not happen, and now Gavin Lux is one of my favorite LAD players.  But it did take some time.  While he was not an overnight success in MiLB, I never lost faith that he would someday become a ML player.  Not necessarily a superstar, but a steady player.  At 19, he had a tough year at Great Lakes (many players do), but something clicked in 2018.  As he turned 20, Lux played at two levels, High A (Rancho) and AA (Tulsa).  He had extremely similar numbers at both venues:

Rancho – 404 PA – .324/.396/.520/.916

Tulsa – 120 PA – .324/.408/.495/.904

He was named LAD MiLB Player of the Year.  Suddenly he was back to being a legit top 100 prospect.  But the rise did not stop there.  In his next year, Lux was unconscious.  At 21, Gavin started in AA and in 291 PA he slashed .313/.375/.521/.896, and when promoted to OKC, in 232 PA, he proceeded to hit .392/.478/.719/1.197.  He had 13 HRs in both AA and AAA.  Lux was added to the NL Futures Game Roster (along with Dustin May).  He was rewarded with a September promotion to LAD where he continued to produce.  In 82 PA, he hit .240/.305/.400/.705.

Gavin Lux at the Futures Game

Gavin made his MLB debut on September 2, 2019, in LA against Colorado.  He singled on the first pitch he saw from RHRP Peter Lambert.  He doubled in his next AB.  His first MLB HR came on September 2019, in Baltimore off Tanner Scott.  In Game 1 of the 2019 NLDS against Washington, Gavin hit a PH solo HR off Hunter Strickland.  At 21 years and 314 days Gavin thus became the youngest player in MLB history to hit a PH HR in the postseason.  He was also the youngest Dodger to hit a home run in a postseason game, a record previously held by Cody Bellinger, who homered at the age of 22 years and 88 days during the 2017 NLDS against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  His reward this year was not only was he named LAD MiLB POY, but he was also named Baseball America’s Overall MiLB POY.  He became the third Dodger to earn this award.  The first being the inaugural award winner (1981), Mike Marshall, AND again in 1997 by Paul Konerko.   The ten previous winners were:

2009      Jason Heyward

2010      Jeremy Hellickson

2011      Mike Trout

2012      Wil Myers

2013      Byron Buxton

2014      Kris Bryant

2015      Blake Snell

2016      Yoan Moncada

2017      Ronald Acuna

2018      Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Not a miss in the bunch. The current winner is another “can’t miss player”, Bobby Witt Jr. Witt Jr. is why Adelberto Mondesi could very well be on the move.  Maybe NYY looks here for two years.  For a complete list of the previous years’ winners:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_America_Minor_League_Player_of_the_Year_Award

2020 was a lost year for Gavin Lux.  He was expected to contend for the NL ROY, but the pandemic hit, and Lux’s world turned upside down.  He reported to Summer ST late for an undisclosed reason.  In addition, Lux was 22 and his hometown, Kenosha, Wisconsin was rocked with violence for much of the summer.  He never got untracked, began to press, and his once considered potentially plus defense was lost.  For the first time in his life, he was considered a failure as a baseball player.  How does one feel.  Pandemic, report late to camp, your hometown is burning down, and your whole world seems to be slipping away. 

At 23, Lux was back with LAD as the starting 2B.  He started out very well, but cooled off.  However he was forced to take over SS after Corey Seager’s hand was broken by a pitch. Lux stayed as the primary SS through the AS break.  At the time he was hitting .227/.307/.349/.656.  Certainly not HOF numbers, but for a team with Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, AJ Pollock, Will Smith, and CT3, it should not have been an issue to carry a 23 year old while he gets comfortable at the MLB level.  But not so for soooooooo many fans on this site. On July 18, Lux injured his hamstring and was placed on the IL. He rehabbed in OKC and attempted to learn to play the 3B, as Lux was not going to unseat Trea Turner at 2B. He returned to LAD on August 17. The experiment did not go so well, and Lux was back in OKC on August 28. This time he started to learn the OF. On September 10 he returned to LA, where upon in his final 17 games and 60 PA, Gavin came, back with a roar going .360/.467/.500/.967. The power was not there but the OBP certainly was. Yes, small sample size, but that was more like the Gavin Lux that was rewarded with MiLB POY.

This will be Gavin’s age 24 season coming up, and if I am in charge, Lux goes to 2B (assuming the Dodgers do not re-sign Seager, and Turner moves to SS) and stays there at least through the AS Break.  With any kind of luck, Gavin will be the starting 2B in the 2022 AS game which is scheduled to be played at Dodger Stadium. 

Last year MLB saw a breakthrough of previously elite prospects that started out oh so slowly; Austin Riley and Kyle Tucker.  In his first two years with Atlanta, Austin hit:

.226/.279/.471/.750 – 297 PA at 22

.239/.301/.415/.716 – 206 PA at 23

Many Atlanta fans wanted him gone.  He was considered a bust by so many.  Except current GM and PBO, Alex Anthopoulos was not about to give up on this kid.  At 24, Austin started out very slow.  On April 17, Riley was batting .182/.275/.182/.456.  He was told to keep going out and work hard.  From that day through the end of the season Austin hit .313/.375/.559/.933 and won his first SS.  He went on to have a very good post season, especially WRISP.

Kyle Tucker was considered an elite OF prospect.  He was a 4- time consensus Top 100 prospect and a 3 time consensus top 40 prospect, but could not make that move into the Astros lineup. He broke into MLB at 21:

At 21 – 64 PA – .141/.236/.203/.439

At 22 – 67 PA – .269/.319/.537/.857

At 23 – 228 PA – .268/.325/.512/.857

Finally at 24 and 567 PA, Tucker slashed .294/.359/.537/.917.  He was considered one of the most dangerous hitters WRISP during the playoffs. 

WRISP – 24 AB – .333/.385/.792/1.176 (13 RBI)

WRISP/2 outs – 12 AB – .500/.571/1.333/1.905 (3 HR and 10 RBI)

Another player I have been touting for the last few years is Colorado SS/2B Brendan Rodgers.  Rodgers was another can’t miss Rockies middle infielder who was missing, until…he turned 24.

At 22 – 81 PA – .224/.272/.250/.522

At 23 – 21 PA – .095/.095/.143/.238

At 24 – 294 PA – .284/.328/.470/.798 with 15 HRs

J.P. Crawford was a first round pick by the Phillies in 2013.  He was a consensus 4-time top 36 prospect and a 5th time top 100 by Baseball America.  Philadelphia did not have the patience and dealt him to Seattle along with Carlos Santana for two relief pitchers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos and middle infielder Jean Segura.  He has found a home in Seattle. 

At 23 – .214/.319/.393/.712

At 24 – .226/.313/.371/.684

At 25 – .255//.336/.338/.674

At 26 – .273/.388/.376/.715

It took Crawford until 25 to make a larger impact. For those looking for lofty OPS numbers, you might find yourself somewhat disappointed.  But his BA has been on the rise the last two years.  I am not the OPS guy that some here are as that gives a slightly unbalanced number for SLG which is not quite as important for a middle infielder.  One has to wonder whether some long-time major leaguers with sub .700 career OPS would make today’s rosters.

Ozzie Smith (.666 OPS)

Larry Bowa (.620 OPS)

Bill Russell (.648 OPS)

Tito Fuentes (.653)

Maury Wills (.661)

Dick Groat (.696)

Luis Aparicio (.653)

Don Kessinger (.626)

Leo Cardenas (.679)

Dave Concepcion (.679)

Bud Harrelson (.616)

Of course, many brought other talents to the game, but I am not sure that is good enough for many fans today.

I fully expect Gavin Lux to become an AS 2B at some point. The problem I see with Gavin is that the player who has been playing at the ML level is not the same player that played at MiLB. Go back to his debut AB where he singled on the first pitch he saw. That was the attacking Gavin Lux that propelled him to the accolades he received. Last year does not count for me. Too many outside issues. In the beginning of 2021, Lux adapted to (or was he coached/directed) the LAD hitting strategy of working the count. He lost that aggressiveness that both Corey Seager and Trea Turner possess. He needs to be the pest who gets on base and then makes things happen with this legs. Will Dodger coaches let him? He can still generate 10-15 HRs per season, but he could be a .300 hitter if he went back to his aggressive nature. I am betting he learned and is willing to do what is best for him to succeed. PERSONAL OBSERVATION AND OPINION. DON’T SHOOT THE MESSENGER.

The Nats Carter Kieboom is also entering his age 24 season.  I look for both 2016 1st round draft SS to have good years in 2022 even if they are at different positions than when drafted…Lux at 2B and Kieboom at 3B.

This article has 26 Comments

  1. I like to compare Gavin’s first two years to Chase Utley’s, Chase managed to put it all together until he was 26 years old.
    I am very positive with Gavin and I have not lost faith, I love his reach and his arm from SS transferred to 2B, I think that the RVS method, which gives preference to power, has hurt him, he must be a hitter from ability, to put the ball in play and then “start the motorcycle”, in September he had many hits for 5.5 and his swing looked sweet when he did that, he has occasional power and he could be a player with a potential of 20 – 20, I hope he has his first full season as a starting player, that he is the ninth bat and that they do not move him from there.
    A positive defense at 2B, with a .250-.255, 12-15 HR, 70-75 RBI, 10-15 SB, 2-3 WAR in his first full year is more than adequate for me, I hope he is a 20-20 player in two or three years.

  2. I was never a Lux fan when he was drafted. He was a scrawny little kid. However, he has morphed into a strong man and while admittedly being hot, warm, and cold about him I am now heating up again. I think Gavin has All-Star Talent. I think he can hit 25+ HR’s and hit .300.

    The 800-pound gorilla in the room is THE YIPS. It’s a thing and it may get inside his head at times. Maybe he can get past it, but it has come up in three separate seasons. Maybe he becomes a Gold Glove CF, Belli moves to 1B and Muncy to 2B?

  3. Bobby – just walking along Vicarage Rd on my way to the game.

    Not feeling at all confident – got you boys to win by 3.

    Hope you’re well mate.

  4. I love Lux. He’s the most athletic player I’ve seen in quite some time on the Dodgers. I think he’s right up there with Betts and Trea Turner and may be even more athletic than either of them. He’s a victim of a Yogiism that baseball is 90% mental and the other half physical. He’s got the physical part down, he needs to get past the mental part.

    I was talking to my brother the other day about Lux and we spoke about the same thing that Jeff mentioned. The hitting coaches at big league level trying to change him. Lux spoke about getting back to basics at the end of the season and the results are encouraging. But, I don’t think the Dodgers want to just insert him into that second base role. They’re in a perfect position to resign Seager, move on from Turner after Lux shows that he’s capable of playing every day after this season. I think that the most likely plan is Lux plays in a utility role for a year while he proves himself.

    I think I define the yips differently than Mark does. When I think of the yips, I think of Mackey Sasser not being to throw the ball back to the pitcher, or Rick Ankiel who looked like a star pitcher until he completely lost the ability to throw with any accuracy. I think Lux’s throwing problems are due to footwork and it will be fixed over time with repetition. Last year, when he played second base he seemed to have put the throwing problems behind him. Then we saw Trea Turner take over at 2B, and he had some throwing problems of his own.

    Muncy at 2B? You’ve got to be kidding me. Muncy went from barely passing the eye test at 1B, to being a solid defender. But, he’s no second baseman and would be worse than Lux even if Lux didn’t get over his throwing problems. Remember that Muncy had the same problems as Lux when he was tried at 3B. Max is just to big, and stiff to play second. Sure, you can use him there in a pinch, but you’re giving up a lot of range if you throw him in there full time. Maybe you can get away with it if you have Izturis, Ozzie or Vizquel. We don’t.

    If you were to go with Lux in CF, Belli at 1B and Muncy at 2B, you’re weakening 2 positions to have Belli at the least important defensive position of the three. I can see Belli taking back first base once Muncy moves on, but only if Rios becomes a bust.

    I would love to see a similar article about Rios, the forgotten man, who could become the next Kyle Schwarber for us as soon as next year.

  6. Seems like the Rays offer might be a bit low ball compared to Tatis Jr. Not that Franco will be as good as Tatis.

    I thought the Dodgers made the right move protecting their Rule 5 guys yesterday. McKinney wasn’t very helpful with the bat last year and Recks looked horrible on both sides of the ball. I guess Raley is worth another look. He wasn’t horrible defensively and he has a ton of raw power.

    1. Seems low to me to. But the kid has not really proven anything yet. If the Rays are willing to make that kind of commitment, they must feel he is can’t miss. They are also pushing hard to become baseball’s first 2 city team. They are trying to secure the rights to Montreal so they can play half of their games there. Fix the stadium in Tampa. Then they would not have to even think like that. Both of the Florida franchise’s have attendance problems. One more reason to dislike Correia, in a Spanish language interview, he said Derek Jeter deserved none of the 5 gold gloves he won. A guy who used cheating to get an edge dissing a HOF player. He has zero class.

      1. Correa is an absolute idiot if his Jeter comment is what it seems to be. Maybe it was taken out of context but to say that when you hope to sign with the Yankees or at least have them involved in the bidding so as to jack up your signing price with someone else, is absolute lunacy. It just reinforces his reputation for being a very good player with very bad judgment.

        He could be a charter member of the Bauer Club.

        1. Jeter said he had not heard the interview himself since he does not speak Spanish. He pretty much does not give a damn what Correia says. But fans were pretty irate about it. Yankee fans anyway.

  7. Dodgers cut Reks and McKinney. They could have jettisoned Raley also and it would not have hurt my feelings. They protected 5. Outman, Leonard, Vivas, Grove and Amaya. The roster sit’s at 40. Most teams now at 40. The A’s have 5 open spots. Angels sent Tim Wallach’s kid Chad down to AAA. Yankees cut Frazier and Odor. As for Gavin, I saw some things I liked, some I did not. I did not like him in the outfield at all. He never looked comfortable out there. But he was hitting and they wanted that bat in the lineup, so they sacrificed defense for it. I think he will become a good player at the major league level. But if he brought a real talent back in a trade, it would not bother me to see him go somewhere else.

  8. Saw Gavin Lux play several times at Jethawks Stadium in High A a few years back, always impressed. He has speed, pretty good defensive skills and would spray the ball to all fields and hit for power at times. Still think he will turn out to be a very good player. Definitely raised the level when he returned last year.

    If Corey leaves, slide Trea to short, sign him to a long term deal this winter, and make Lux the second baseman. If he performs at the level he’s capable of you’ve got a player who can hit .290 or .300, steal 20 plus bases and hit 20 to 25 homers.

    Obviously, would like to see Seager return, Dodgers better with him than without him, but you can’t sign everybody. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register/Daily News believes Andrew Friedman won’t get caught up in a bidding war. He usually has pretty good insight. Then again, the Dodgers did get into a bidding war with the Yankees for Gerrit Cole, put a lot of money on the table.

    The fact that the Dodgers were able to acquire Turner and have Lux certainly gives LA options. Friedman also has a special appreciation for Turner’s skill sets. Plus moving forward you would have to consider the long term cost and the fact you need to find a way to keep Cody Bellinger (I expect him to bounce back in a big way), Walker Buehler and Julios Urias.

    Lux, Turner and Bellinger all have speed and the fact that Friedman has emphasized the need for more speed in the line-up may give us a hint at what he’s looking for moving forward.

    1. Betts is pretty fast too. He might resign Taylor since he has pretty decent speed also. One reason I think Outman is a possibility before the end of the year is his speed.

  9. Happy Birthday to Rick Monday. 76 today! It is also JD Drew’s birthday and would have been Jay Johnstone’s. Eppler officially the new GM of the Mets. Rebuilding that disaster will not be easy. Grove must really have the confidence of the coaching staff and front office to be protected. They know way more than we do. Rangers put Roger Clemens son on the 40 man. 24 year old infielder. They also extended Woodward’s contract a year. With the Giants bringing Belt back, their infield is going to be one of the older infields in the league with Belt, Crawford and Longoria. And they have to find a new catcher. No matter who they put back there, he won’t be nearly as good as Posey. I think the Padres are more of a threat than the Giants. Preller is very unpredictable and he could make some moves that cut the distance between the two teams considerably. I have a lot of faith that AF is not just going to sit on his hands this winter. I expect it to be a lot like his first season when he went kind of bat shit crazy. Then again, he might not make any major trades at all.

  11. I just watched an old Dean Martin roast of Leo Durocher. One of the funniest bits in the entire roast came from Foster Brooks playing an NL umpire. It was classic. He mistook Maury Wills for Hank Aaron, and then said that all Puerto Rican ballplayers looked alike. Brooks was one of the funniest roasters Martin had on his program. Of course Rickles could always be counted on for some classic moments. Another great one came from Charlie Callas. Many might remember him. Had a rubber face. He could really make one laugh just with his expressions. This particular roast had Callas as a mobster roasting Frank Sinatra. Pretty funny stuff.

  12. Great article Jeff! Glad to see you writing more regularly.

    I’m going to go out on limb and guess that the same Dodgers’ hitting philosophy is taught from the lower levels of the minor leagues on up to the majors. I may be wrong on that, but it wouldn’t make sense to do otherwise. Therefore, if Lux succeeded with the same hitting strategy then as he is struggling with now, it might have more to do with the quality of the pitching he’s facing or, perhaps, he’s pressing because he’s never experienced “failure” before in his baseball life. Whatever it is I believe, as I always have that he will be a stud player. I would like to see some of Trea Turner’s running ability rub off on him. If I have any criticism of Lux, it’s that he needs to lay of the Red Bulls!!!

    1. Thanks Rob. The philosophy is the same throughout the organization. Gavin changed his approach when he first played at Great Lakes, and it did not work so well. He got better with it, but he still did not have the launch angle so extreme. I watched his development. While he did have some moon shots, he was much better at hitting all over the park. He more was really more of a gap to gap line drive hitter who occasionally launched one. He has power, but he is special when he stays within himself. His last month in 2021 was very reminiscent of what I saw when he was at Tulsa and OKC.

      Another player I watch a lot is Jacob Amaya. He too changed his swing this past year for more launch angle and power. That is not his strength. In 2019, Jacob played at both Great Lakes and Rancho and hit .260/.369/.391/.760 with 7 HRs. He was young for the leagues, so they were respectable numbers. He struck out 98 times but walked 81 times counting for his higher OBP. But in 2021 at Tulsa, he hit .216/.303/.343/.645 with 12 HRs. He had 103 strikeouts, but only 52 walks. He was chasing a lot of pitches that he used to let go, especially up in the zone that he was trying to muscle out. His K rate in 2019 was 17.5%. It jumped to 21.6% at Tulsa.

      Jacob is playing better in the AFL, batting .333/.463/.556/1.018 with 3 HRs. What is good with his AFL is his K/BB at 13/13. His K rate is 19.4% in the AFL. I have not seen him play in the AFL so I cannot comment on any swing change. Maybe better pitch and location discipline. I believe Phil Jones has seen him in Arizona. Maybe he can comment on his swing mechanics.

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