Something Does Not Add Up!

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1. So the Dodgers are gambling $8 million that Heaney could be “the next Robbie Ray.”
   Well, why not use some of that money to get the actual Robbie Ray?
   If Heaney and his vaunted spin rate moves from depth to stud, that would be peachy. But it’s a puzzlement.
   While considering Heaney’s payday, let’s recall that Farhan signed both Alex Wood and Jake McGee for a combined sum of about $6.5 million for the year. The Dodgers let them go as FAs and they wound up being a big part of the reason the Giants won the division.
   Yes, yes–Farhan could promise Wood that he’d start and McGee that he would close. But did AF offer them much more? Did Wood and/or McGee ever say something like, “The Dodgers are offering me a million more but I’m not hearing the promises I want to hear?” I doubt it.
   Now, I was OK with Wood moving on because I prefered May and Gonsolin. (I never prefered Bauer. What a mistake that was.) But I did think letting a lefty power reliever like McGee go was a big mistake.
   But come to think, Bauer and now Heaney both may illustrate how the Dodgers just don’t seem to be interested in bargains. Farhan went shopping for bargains and hit it big. (AF also invested more in Knebel and Kahnle–and Kahnle hasn’t thrown a pitch yet. )
   Yeah, AF did well picking up Bickford and landing Vesia in a trade. The draft has delivered promising arms like Miller and Pepiot. But who are the FA bargains lately?
   Maybe AF really should just avoid the free agents. The Dodgers seem better at acquiring talent in other ways.

   1. Who are the Dodgers free agent bargains lately? Jake McGee the year before last, Knebel, Nelson and Treinen. And let us not forget about AJ Pollock who seems to be outperforming his $12M annually.

      Alex Wood was good enough last year, but he wasn’t great by any means. He wound up with a 3.83 ERA and made 26 starts. McGee was better with the Dodgers than he was with the Giants last year and he wasn’t as good as Nelson or Knebel.

      You sound like you have some Giants envy. In case you forgot, we dispatched them in the Division Series last year. Maybe that genius Farhan should have realized what a great team he had, spent a little more money and made it a little further into the offseason.

      We also sold $1.1 Million more tickets than the Giants last year.

   2. Ray is projected to get a deal close to 5 years, 160 million. AF is not going to do that. AF also is not going to go after guys given the QO, he values his draft picks. And Dodgers do not have a first rounder this year I believe.

   3. Correction: $8.5 million for Heaney, who is a guy with a sub-500 won-loss record and career ERA of about 4.7.
      Nice work if you can get it.
      Carlos Rodon was a “bounce back” candidate for the White Sox last season. Not unlike Wood, Rodon was signed for $3 million–and Rodon had a nice season.
      Yet another reason, I think, that the AF brain trust may not be so hot at identifying these types of free agents.
      I’ll say it again: The modern Dodger semi-dynasty was not built on FAs, but on a combination of smart draft picks, savvy trades, international signings, and unpolished gems like JT and Muncy.
      Off the top of my head, I think AJ Pollock was the only “name” FA on the current Dodger roster. Well, unless we count Trevor Effing Bauer, now a candidate for Worst FA Signing Ever.
      That said, I would certainly throw $$$$$ at Scherzer because we know what we’ll get. And I would make it really hard for Chris Taylor to leave because he can’t be replaced as easily as Seager. Investing in FAs we know well–including Kersh and Kenley–is very different from taking an $8.5 million flyer on a guy like Heaney.
      But I hope Heaney proves me wrong–and doesn’t prevent somebody like Gonsolin or Mitch White or Andre Jackson fulfilling their potential.

      1. Extra note on Seager:
         He’s only had 600 plate appearances twice in his career. Over roughly the same period, Semien has had five such seasons. Seager may be the better hitter overall, but Semien has more power–and he’s just won the Gold Glove for 2B, I think. (Maybe just a finalist.)
         Durability matters, doesn’t it? Also versatility.
         Yes, Semien is a few years older–but he’s another SS who just won the Gold Glove as a second baseman. Semien could shift to 3B if necessary, while Seager seems resistant to any such change.
         My guess is that Seager will get the $$$$ from the Yanks, but Semien might be the better value, especially for the Dodgers. I hope AF isn’t counting on Lux as anything more than a UT guy.

2. Did the Athletic mention the teams that would be willing to do such a foolish signing? Fifty million a year for a soon to be 38 year old who was unable to make his final start because he threw 13 pitches to close out a game a few days before? And admitted his arm was ready to fall off. Yeah, there’s an endorsement for that kind of signing. How do many of these baseball writers or analysts actually get paid to come up with such nonsense? We get much more informed thoughts and opinions here at LADT.

   1. That last sentence is quite a position to take.

   2. I can think of one, Arte Moreno. His team needs pitching the worst way. He is going to target at least one if not two of the top pitchers on the list. And they look at it a lot differently than the fans do. Stars generate ticket sales. Can you imagine what a genuine A list Latino star would do for attendance in Miami? Just think how many jersey’s of Urias they have sold at Dodger Stadium. Fernando’s jersey still sells well. Koufax is probably one of the few stars who can keep up with Valenzuela. A’s are trying to cut payroll and get a new stadium at the same time. But they have almost all their stars on the market. Yankees have already inquired about Olson.

3. This is the time of the year that writers throw out foolish and outlandish numbers. Yes, Max Scherzer is 38. Maybe he is pretty good next year or maybe he has some injuries and the season isn’t all that great. Three year deal? That’s probably pushing the envelope. Perhaps a two year deal worth around $30 million annually might make sense. But some GM and owner may offer more, desperation and all. Better not to get caught up in a bidding war.

   Until the Dodgers or MLB resolve the Trevor Bauer issue, the Dodgers probably won’t tie up big money into another pitcher, who has considerable risk. Now maybe ownership knows that at some point MLB will suspend Bauer and free up money moving forward. Based on history doesn’t matter what the DA does, Bauer will likely face suspension. We can simply chalk off Bauer as a mistake. Once all this is done, it will be interesting to see what Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers say.

   Honestly, I’d rather see the Dodgers focus their resources on retaining Corey Seager. Entering his prime, Seager can be a game changer.

   Based on what Friedman said about Kershaw in this morning’s LA Times, they definitely want him back and are confident he will be ready for 2022. Apparently there is no real damage to the UCL according to the scans.

   If that’s the case, the Dodgers can field a rotation of Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin , Andrew Heaney, others yet to be signed, plus a few up and coming prospects.

   More than one way to build a starting rotation. Yes the Giants won 107 games and the NL West and no their starting rotation didn’t match the Dodgers.

   If the Dodgers jumped out to sign Heaney that quickly they probably think they’ve figured something out to push him to the next level.

   I’m guessing the Dodgers want to build a potential rotation seven or eight deep, plus prospects. After last year that makes sense.

   As to math. There is higher math. There is general math, there is business math and government math. And then there is baseball math, crazy numbers and all.

4. I thought this group might get a kick out of this email that I received the day of Game 6 of the WS. Needless to say, the request was denied 😉

   “Howdy! Hello professor I know this request is a stretch but you miss 100% of the homeruns you don’t swing at. I plan on grinding the assigned homework up until the Astros game and possibly even during but, I was wondering if I am not able to complete the full 8/8 points tonight, if I could get an extension until midnight tomorrow. If you do this for me I realize it is only fair that you do it for other students but, if they cared as much as me they would send emails as well! Anyways thank you and GO STROS!”

   1. The kid is obviously a criminal and needs incarcerated

5. I might have responded…”Just like in MLB, there are no personal requests for delays, so your assignment is due as posted. However, let me be clear, unlike MLB and the Astros, cheating on the assignment will not be forgotten or forgiven.”

   1. Or, say it my way “go f your self and f your assssstros”

6. According to a presser that Andrew Friedman gave yesterday, they want Kershaw back and expect that he will be. They have left the door open for everyone else as well but he had to say that. He specifically said that if Jansen returns it would be as closer. They apparently made an extension offer to Seager before the season ended.

   The math is the trouble. They already have $205MM in salary obligations for 2022 without resigning any of their free agents. They owe Bauer $35MM so if they have to pay him they won’t likely be able to pay someone else.

   The rotation is the big issue. As of now, they have Buehler, Urias, Heaney and his career 4.77 ERA, and 2 open spots. If Kershaw returns that settles 1 of them; Gonsolin has to show that he’s healthy, can pitch 5+ innings per start, etc. He hasn’t done that yet. White and Jackson are other pieces; potential but not sure things. They have youngsters who aren’t yet ready, so they have to do something else.

   I don’t see Scherzer, Seager or Jansen returning under the circumstances. Maybe Taylor if he accepts the QO, but not likely otherwise.

   Available FA pitchers include
   Kevin Gausman
   Robbie Ray
   Eduardo Rodriguez
   Carlos Rodon
   Jon Gray
   Anthony DeSclafani
   Justin Verlander
   Alex Wood
   Steven Matz
   Yusei Kikuchi
   Noah Syndergaard
   Alex Cobb
   Zack Greinke
   Cory Kluber
   Danny Duffy
   Tyler Anderson
   Johnny Cueto
   Rich Hill
   Colin McHugh
   James Paxton
   Michael Pineda

   It’s going to be an interesting off season

7. I do not believe the Dodgers will so much as sniff a free agent who has the QO!

   1. Except their own of course. Anyone else, not a snowballs chance in hell.

8. All of you are forgetting that they still have a Cy Young winner on the roster. David Price. Price cannot possibly be worn out, he has barely pitched over the last two seasons. You give Price a full spring and stretch him out, which he never was last season, and he is easily your 5th starter. At 16 mil, he is earning too much to be a swing man or a reliever. This season he was a total team player and did what they asked. Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin, Price, Heaney, White, May, Jackson, those are the starters who are on the roster right now as it stands. Now, maybe Price goes down early, or maybe some of you think the guy has forgotten how to pitch. He was 5-2 this season rarely pitching more than 4 innings. He had a 4.08 ERA in 39 games with 73.2 innings pitched. He struck out 58, His walk rate was high since he walked 26. But like I said, he was never stretched out. 11 of his 39 games were as the starter, but in his case usually as an opener. Not saying at all that he is the solution, but he is a piece that can be used. It is doubtful that any team would want Price in a trade unless LA covered a large portion of his 16 mil dollar deal. As usual since he took over at the end of 2014, we have zero information as to which FA’s or moves AF might have swirling around in his head. The GM meeting is a place where trades are explored, and none of us know who AF may have discussed with other GM’s. Tim Hyers is joining the Rangers as their new hitting coach. Yankees have contacted both Seager and Correa.

9. Heaney passed his physical, and the Dodgers will officially announce his signing sometime this week. Cole Hamels is planning on being ready by late in the season. He wants to be almost finished with his rehab before holding another showcase. Dodgers final ranking after the season, # 2 behind the Braves. Astros were ranked 6th and Giants 8th. Rays were # 3. Hard to believe it is almost Thanksgiving. Since tomorrow is Veteran’s Day, I want to thank all my fellow Vets for their service. Check on the places near you that are offering Veterans free meals and such. I know IHOP is offering a free Red, White and Blue pancakes breakfast. So enjoy, if you like pancakes. Mantle, Mays, Snider and DiMaggio were all active in the same season once, 1951. 4 of the best who ever roamed CF anywhere in baseball. All four numbers, 4, 5, 7, and 24 were retired by their teams.

   1. Thanks Bear,
      You have mentioned that you were in the Army. I was in the Navy reserve and spent 2years on active duty. One in San Diego (where I met my wife) and one on the USS Repose (Hospital ship) in Vietnam. 1968 – 1969

      I’d like to know how many other Vets are Dodgers fans here on LADT. When and where they served.
      Thank you all

      1. US Army. 1965-1974. Radar Tech Hawk Missile System. Basic at Ft.Bliss, AIT, US Army Air Defense School for 36 weeks, 13 months in Korea with the 38th Air Defense Artillery Brigade. C Battery 7th Bn, 5th ADA. Then back to Bliss for two years with the US Army Air Defense Board testing new AD systems. Vulcan, and Improved Hawk. On to Germany for three years with 32nd ADCOM. B Battery 1st Bn Ist ADA, stationed in Wildflecken Germany. Then back to Bliss at the US Army Air Defense School as a maintenace tech working on the systems that they used for training my MOS> Stayed there until I got out of the Army in October of 1974. I was on orders to return to Korea when I got out.

      2. My son was in the Navy for 4 years. He was an avionics tech working on F-14’s and 15’s. Most of his service was in the states. He took basic at Great Lakes. He did spend 3 months on the Carl Vinson. My dad and grandfather both served in the Navy, WWII and WWI for gramps. Uncles served in the Navy, USAAF and Coast Guard.

10. Saw a quote from AF that said the payroll was fluid. To me that sends a message that ownership is not really concerned with spending money and blowing past the CBT. Maybe I am reading it wrong. Heaney officially a Dodger now. I have seen this post be wrong a number of times, but MLB Insider on Twitter says the Dodgers are working on a 3 year deal with Scherzer. I will believe that when I see it.

11. Marine Corps 1962-1968. Vietnam era, but never sent to Nam.

12. Thank you all for your service.
    God Bless

13. God bless all our Vets and their families.

14. SEMPER PARATUS
    US Coast Guard
    1971-77 active duty
    1977-80 reserves
    Boatswains mate
    Portland Maine,
    Vietnam, New York,
    Kodiak Ak, South Portland Maine.
    San Diego, Ca.

    1. Thank you for your service!

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