Well, let the bidding begin. A number of publications have put out their top 50 Free Agents list. MLBTR is one of my favorites to follow. They are no better with their prognostications than are any other publication. They run contests every year, and many of the readers have turned out better with picks than the writers. One year I got 12 out of 50. Not bad, but there were others that were better.
Now as a precursor…yes, I know there may not be a lot of action on the top FA until the CBA is signed, and all of this conjecture will probably be a bunch of hooey. However, if you do not want to contemplate the what if scenarios, then feel free to ignore this post. My feelings will not be hurt.
Anyway, let’s begin this post with what the Dodgers have done. Will this be the last year that LAD will have Seager and /or Kershaw, and/or KJ? It will be a very empty feeling next Spring without them. Please note that I was writing this before AF signed Andrew Heaney for a head scratching amount of $8.5MM. More on that later. The Dodgers have 11 free agents, and have presented a QO to two players: Corey Seager and Chris Taylor. The Dodgers will be compensated for losing these two FA with a draft pick. But once again, thanks to Trevor Bauer, the draft pick will come after the 4th round. Below are the draft pick compensation rules for teams losing a free agent with a QO.
Compensation for losing players who reject their QO
• If a team gives a qualifying offer to a player who then signs elsewhere, the club that lost the player is eligible for Draft pick compensation. The 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement rules state that if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection — if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million — will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2022 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round.
The following 13 teams currently qualify for these picks: Brewers, Cleveland, D-backs, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers and Twins.
• If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player’s contract doesn’t matter in this case.
The 15 teams in this category: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox and Yankees.
• If the team that loses the player went over the luxury-tax threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the fourth round has been completed (as with the previous scenario, it doesn’t matter how much the player signs for).
Two clubs exceeded the threshold in 2021: the Dodgers and the Padres.
Seems like very little consolation for a LAD team losing Corey Seager. Of course 5th round selections have gone on and become All Star players (Mookie Betts), but most turn out like the following ten drafts for LAD:
2012 – RHP Ross Stripling (Currently with Toronto MLB)
2013 – RHP JD Underwood (Released / Restricted List)
2014 – 3B Jared Walker (Elected FA after going to Australia and signed MiLB contract with Texas AAA)
2015 – 3B Brendon Davis (Currently with LA Angels AAA after being waived by Texas)
2016 – RHP Devin Smeltzer (On Twins Roster – out with elbow injury for almost all of 2021)
2017 – RHP Riley Ottesen (Released)
2018 – 2B Devin Mann (AA Tulsa)
2019 – RHP Jack Little (A+ Great Lakes)
2020 – RHP – Gavin Stone (A+ Great Lakes)
2021 – RHP Ben Casparius (A Rancho)
From that group, only Ross Stripling and Devin Smeltzer have reached MLB, and only Strip has pitched more than 70 innings. Of the others, none figure to be regulars on any roster. Of the group, only Gavin Stone shows any true promise, but he is destined to be a reliever at best (IMO). Casparius is too new for any real evaluation, but I was not impressed at all with the Dodgers 2021 draft. Again, just my opinion.
The one apparent snub was to Clayton Kershaw. Why no QO? Some have speculated that his arm is worse than he is letting on, and that the PRP injections will not be successful. Clayton is not a stupid person, and if AF guaranteed him $18.4MM without knowing the true status of his elbow, Kershaw would have accepted. Now the team can at least look at an incentive laden deal for one year and a vesting option for year 2. CK could make more than $18.4MM, but it will not be guaranteed up front. Some are speculating that AF and the owners wanted Kersh to be able to pursue his options to Texas unencumbered as a favor to CK and Ellen. I guess that is possible, but I am more inclined to believe that AF wants to sign CK, but not for a guarantee of nearly $20MM.
Interestingly, Corey Seager is rated the #2 FA by most publications, following Carlos Correa. However, both are projected to be presented with 10 year $300MM+ contracts. MLBTR projects Correa to earn $320 MM. Two writers project Correa to sign with Detroit and one has him projected to sign with Philadelphia. I think he will sign with Detroit. They are ready to make a run, and they will need a new face of the franchise once Miggy retires. MLBTR has projected Seags to earn $305MM and all three writers predict he will sign with NYY. I have said all along that I believe Seager will sign with NYY, and if NYY offers $300MM Seags will be wearing pinstripes in 2022. I cannot see AF signing Seager to a 10 year $300MM deal.
One thing we do know is that AF is not shy about paying his own FA. We can go back to his Tampa Bay days and his Evan Longoria extension. But with LAD, he has paid good contracts for KJ, JT, Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, and Mookie. He made a fantastic offer to Zack Greinke only to be outbid by the lunatics in Arizona. So I would not be shocked to see, AF bidding up the Corey Seager contract. But I also believe that NYY will be heavily involved and Corey grew up a NYY fan (ala Gerrit Cole). One potential stumbling block for NYY is that Aaron Judge is one year from FA of his own. I am sure that NYY has penciled in an amount they are willing to spend on Judge (a NYY favorite). They also need pitching this year and that could also impact the level of spending they anticipate for Seager. NYY is already projected to be a $220MM AAV payroll before Seager. I still believe that it is no better than 50/50 for Seager re-signing with LAD. Although, I am hopeful.
As most pundits and fans point out, one of the primary reasons for the trade for Trea Turner was to mitigate the loss of Seags in FA. They will worry about 2023 at a later time. There will be options, including home grown Gavin Lux and maybe Eddys Leonard(???).
MLBTR predicts that CT3 will sign a four year $64MM deal. If that is what he is offered, I will wish him good luck wherever he lands. That is the exact contract that JT signed as a 32 year old (one year older than CT3). This after JT had three consecutive seasons with an OPS better than .830. CT3 had one year with an OPS above .800, and that was for the 60 game 2020 season. I like CT3, but not at that price. The three MLBTR writers predict that he will sign with Miami, Boston, or Seattle. Miami is going to have to overpay to get CT3 to sign there. Both Boston and Seattle are logical choices. But my choice would be Washington. He is from Virginia and the Nationals have a need for a SS and 2B. Carter Kieboom will land at 3B once he figures out MLB pitching. CT3 can go home and start.
Who does MLBTR predict LAD will sign? The writers certainly predict that the Dodgers will make one big signing, and that will be just about it. All three writers expect Max Scherzer to be offered and sign a three year $120MM deal with the Dodgers. $40MM per year for three years? I would pass on that deal. AF would do that deal before another 10 year contract. Then again, it is not my money.
There was not any other FA where more than one writer predicted LAD would sign. And only five in total were mentioned as a possibility by only one of the three writers. It is easy to speculate that there is no real chatter coming from the LAD front offices. Nothing new there.
Marcus Semien
Marcus Stroman
Raisel Iglesias
Kendall Graveman
Danny Duffy
I am not convinced that AF will sign any FA with a QO. I cannot see AF sacrificing his 2nd and 5th round pick, plus $1MM in international bonus money to sign any of the FA with QO. That would eliminate Marcus Semien and Raisel Iglesias from that list. They are also at a disadvantage because of the uncertainty of the availability of Trevor Bauer. He is currently on the roster. Will he stay there? How long?
IMO, not counting on Trevor Bauer, the Dodgers have two Aces in Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. Of course another Ace would be fantastic. Marcus Stroman would project to being at near the top of any team’s rotation, but not necessarily at the Ace level. MLBTR predicts he will sign a 5 year deal at $110MM. That actually seems reasonable when compared to teammate Zack Wheeler who signed a 5 year $118MM deal two years ago. But it does not figure to be in the LAD comfort zone.
I am a fan of Kendall Graveman, and he could possibly be the best setup reliever in MLB. He is projected to sign a 3 year $27MM deal. That seems steep for AF, especially just coming off the questionable Joe Kelly contract, and considering he signed Blake Treinen for two years and an option for just about the same price. LAD has two top setup guys coming back this year in Caleb Ferguson and Tommy Kahnle, and will be hoping for a resurgence of Victor Gonzalez and Brusdar Graterol. Alex Vesia and Phil Bickford were also fairly efficient in high leverage innings. Graveman would be a luxury, but not one that AF will offer $27MM to.
KJ is projected to sign a 2-year $26MM deal by MLBTR, and the two teams projected to be interested are Toronto and KC. I understand Toronto. They are very close, and they signed Kirby Yates to be their closer last year, and he went down with TJ surgery. Maybe with a closer in the KJ realm, they could have overtaken NYY and/or Boston. They will also have George Springer for the entire year next year. If KJ wants to give the Dodgers a home team discount, he might re-sign with LAD, but probably not two years and $26 MM. Two years $22MM???
The other LAD FA reliever is Corey Knebel who MLBTR projects will sign a 2-year $18MM deal, and the favored teams are Boston, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. All three teams need relievers, but that is more guarantee than Blake Treinen’s contract last year, and I doubt that AF would sign Knebel to that level of a deal.
The remaining player that one writer is predicting LAD will sign is Danny Duffy. I can see where AF would have an interest at a reasonable price tag. MLBTR envisions a 1-year $10MM deal. Based on what AF signed Andrew Heaney for, that could be a bargain.
I do not see LAD being very active in the FA market, especially for a front line player. I think the signing of Andrew Heaney for $8.5MM foretells what AF may be looking at. IMO, AF must believe that his rotation is deeper than it was when he had just Kershaw and Greinke, thus prompting him to sign Brett Anderson, Brandon McCarthy, Kenta Maeda, and Scott Kazmir the following year, all for depth. Is he going back to that premise? Andrew Heaney, Tony Gonsolin, David Price, Mitch White, and Andre Jackson. AF believes in his organization’s development team so why spend $120MM for Scherzer or $110MM for Stroman? I think AF will make a concerted effort to re-sign Alex Wood. My darkhorse pitcher FA would be Steven Matz. Throw in Danny Duffy and AF will have his rotation. Regardless, when Dustin May comes back next year, he will not be counted on to be any real help until 2023. The Dodgers will be extra extra careful with him upon his return. He will be lucky to get 50 innings next year.
What was AF looking at with Heaney. It is certainly a head-scratcher for me. But here is one writer’s thinking. “But look below the surface, and you’ll see an interesting reclamation project. Among those with at least 250 innings over the last three seasons, Heaney’s 27.1 K% ranks 24th in the Majors. His K-BB% ranks 21st. The skills are there for a 4.00 ERA starter. Always a flyball pitcher, Heaney was undone in 2021 by allowing 18% of his flyballs to leave the yard. A team with a big ballpark might wind up with a bargain.” Why would the Dodgers be interested in a starter with skills for a 4.00 ERA? At $8.5MM? Heaney is a Pittsburgh Pirate reclamation project, not LAD. I assume that there was more interest than for a one year MiLB deal with an ST invite. That would make sense to me. Heaney has never pitched at the Kevin Gausman level, so I do not see any kind of comp there. Outside of his pre-rookie season (2013) and 2019, Gausman has been a pretty good pitcher. Heaney has never been a good pitcher since his 2015 rookie season. I can remember certain people on this site who wanted nothing to do with Chris Archer at $4MM, but Heaney at $8.5MM is acceptable?
Heaney now takes the projected LAD AAV above the current Competitive Balance Tax Threshold.
I think the Dodgers will stay in-house with relievers. They may bring back KJ on a team friendly deal, but they are not going to hand out massive deals for any reliever this winter. I can see multiple MiLB deals with ST invites. Jimmy Nelson?
The Dodgers are not in the need for a starting position player. Some have speculated (hoped) that AF might look at some top RH bats that could fit in their lineup. Potential game-changers and their projected FA contract:
Kris Bryant – 6 years and $160MM
Javy Baez – 5 years and $100MM
Starling Marte – 4 years and $80MM
I doubt that AF even kicks the tires on any of those players. They could look into a bat that could replace a lot of CT3 ABs. A much more reasonable price tag would be Eduardo Escobar (switch-hitter) projected to be 2 years and $20MM. Escobar is not the defender that CT3 is. But he can play 2B, 3B, and 1B or DH/PH. He has power, and makes more contact than CT3. CT3 is the better option, but at $40MM+ more guaranteed money? Eduardo is a much better option coming off the bench in 2022 than, McKinney, Reks, Raley, Neuse, and whoever else the Dodgers currently have in their organization.
One team that some are projecting will sign a big bat is the SD Padres. They are apparently looking at Nick Castellanos and Nelson Cruz. However, they are currently at $206MM and it would seem almost assuredly that they will have to unload the Hosmer contract to consider signing Castellanos. The Giants figure to have Brandon Belt accept the QO, and they are likely to re-sign Kevin Gausman to a lofty multi-year $125MM+ deal. MLBTR projects him to be at 6 years and $138MM. They still need more pitching, and they will have to hope that the old men (Crawford and Longoria) can continue to produce at the same level as 2021, and without Buster Posey. Good luck Farhan.
Again, if you think it is a waste of time and gray matter to predict any roster moves without the lack of a CBA, then by all means, don’t play along. But I enjoy looking at possibilities, no matter how inconceivable they may be. I will undoubtedly play along with MLBTR.
Is it any wonder that the four players who have already rejected their QO are all Scott Boras clients?
Castellanos, Conforto, Seager, Semien
All of them will make more than 18.4 and will get multi-year contracts. I don’t think this has anything to do with Boras.
Okay, I’m not totally surprised the Dodgers would ink Andrew Heaney to an upside deal. Seems like Danny Duffy and Alex Wood would fit as well. The more the better, build some depth in the rotation. At times Heaney looks dominate, other times not so much. Maybe the Dodgers found a flaw they think can be easily fixed. But I agree the money seems to be on the high side.
I’d really like to see Max Scherzer back and maybe that will happen, but it’s a lot of risk. Still think Clayton Kershaw returns, but on less risky deal. Everybody says the Dodgers really want Corey Seager back, they tried to extend him this summer. I’m guessing that’s true and the bat is important moving forward. But maybe they should walk if the numbers get too crazy. Most of the big contracts don’t seem to turn out all that well. Hard to deliver stats worthy of that kind of money.
The Dodgers have some good young arms in the minors and no question Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin could be a good three fifths of the rotation.
Maybe Andrew Friedman wants to try a different approach.
Heaney is the inning eater at the bottom of a rotation/swing man I predicted AF to sign. However I am surprised he paid that much to Heaney.
If TB is not suspended and the Dodgers think they can work him back into the clubhouse I do not think they will attempt to resign Max or sign another frontline starter.
I see another middle of the rotation starter plus an incentive laden deal to Clayton to round out the rotation.
Walker, Julio, Bauer, Clayton, Heaney, free agent like Graveman or Duffy or Wood, Price, White, Jackson gives the Dodgers quite a few options. Plus Miller and Knack and Pepiot are not far from being ready too. And Dustin should help come September/October as well.
I do not see Kenley back. Nor Knebel. But our bullpen should be very good again with Treinen being the new closer and maybe Kelly back.
Dodgers need a big RH bat somewhere in the lineup especially if the DH comes to the NL for good next season. Not sure who it will be but we have a clear and big need for it that has to be filled.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
To bad we didn’t consider MVP JORGE SOLER. Didnt he have 48 home runs two years ago? The Braves got him for peanuts. I’m not sure why he wasn’t considered. Of course, hindsight is always right.
TM
His slash line before the trade…
.192/.288/.370/.658
Bellingeresque!
Did you ever get your soundbar to put out acceptable sound?
I see no big FA acquisitions this off season for the Dodgers. Just like the Andrew Heaney contract we will see AF sign many one-year deals and many ST invites to round out his staff. If Bauer is not charged and not suspended, AF will bring him back into the fold and make every effort to make him apart of the club in 2022.
Some contracts I can foresee for AF:
Danny Duffy–one year
Corey Kluber–one year
Zach Grienke–one year
Verlander–one year, perhaps a two-year contract
Kenley Jansen–one year w/a lot of performance incentives
Last offseason many of us thought the glut of Dodger pitching was “over the top” and some of us speculated how some on the staff would get playing time. Unfortunate injuries, some unexpected ineffectiveness by V-Gone , Graterol arriving at ST out of shape, along with some “bone head” decisions ( read TB) impacted AF’s plan requiring him to give up some substantial talent to acquire TT and Max.
I think this year he will work to get as much veteran arms under one-year contracts to round out his staff, allowing the likes of Miller, Pepiot, Jackson and Knack to continue their development. Does that veteran talent include CK… I certainly hope so.
The window for post season play is still wide open for the Dodgers and I strongly feel the NL West crown goes through LA for the foreseeable future. The window might be a bit closed with the unexpected advance of the Giants, but AF will build around Betts, Muncy, Bellinger, Smith, TT, Lux while continuing to infuse new talent with the likes of Busch, Leonard, Pages, Vargas over the next couple of years, By the way Kody Hoese seems to be a bust.
I just don’t see the Dodgers bringing Seager, Kelly, Knebel, CT3, or Scherzer back, but I would love to be wrong. Seager needs to be a Dodger!
Regarding the contracts you suggested AF might go after:
Duffy – his arm problems last year were very similar to Kersh’s. I think signing both of them would be taking a huge risk since they might both wind up with TJ sooner than later.
Greinke – I’m a huge fan but he may be substantially past his prime. On the other hand, you can never count out ZG.
Verlander – he’ll get two years from someone, so if we want him we’d better be prepared to offer that. On the other hand he lives in L.A. so that might be to our advantage (as well as the Angels who are more desperate for pitching than we are).
Kenley – he’ll get at least two years if not three from someone. If we’re only prepared to give him one, it’s adios.
Just my opinions, and you’re as likely to be correct as I am, but that’s what we do here, throw around ideas and respond to one another’s posts.
I see the Dodgers as having close to the same payroll as they did last year. As AC pointed out, they’re already past the threshold and I think if they’re willing to go over, they might as well go big. This season makes it particularly difficult to gauge because there is no CBA to operate under. I think the Heaney signing is for a guy they really liked. They see something that makes him attractive. I can see him starting out as a starter and flipping over to the pen once May comes back. I agree that May won’t be leaned on heavily, but they do plan to use him in the postseason. AF also knows that Bauer is coming back at some point next year and the tippy top free agent pitchers will not sign until after the new CBA is in place.
With that said, the Dodgers will probably go after one of those good pitchers, unless they get good news that Bauer is timed served. Remember that they are only just over the threshold if Bauer is on the roster from day one. If he is to be suspended further, they will get money back to spend on a pitcher. It’s a waiting game. If Clayton comes back, Heany might go straight to the pen. They are not going to bring back Woody or any other 3-4-5 type starter. I’m thinking Mad Max is a strong possibility to return. It’s top shelf or nothing and a lot of that depends on Bauer.
They’re in an interesting situation with Seager. I think they bring him back. This might be my heart thinking for my brain. I can see him as a guy who can take the Gold Glove away from Nolan in a year or two and I think they can deal with him at Shortstop for a year or two. I don’t think they fully trust Lux to take over any position on a full time basis just yet. If they fail to resign Seags, I can see them going after a shorter commitment like Semien, projected at 5 years and 110M or bringing back CT3 to help out at second base in a platoony role playing matchups with Lux.
I really don’t see Kenley or any other bullpen piece coming back with a fully stacked bullpen. Not unless they bring back Nelson as a budget option.
I would imagine they improve the bench, but after seeing the Heaney signing, I have no idea what they’ll be looking for. Part of me wants to believe that James Outman will be a factor next year especially after a red hot showing in the AFL, but after just 39 games at AA I just don’t think that’s likely. They’re going to need some bench help.
Needs…
1 Reliable Starting Pitcher and perhaps another project type Starting Pitcher
1 Hitter – Seager or a replacement for his production
1 – 2 Bench Pieces
1 – 2 Broken relievers to fix like Jimmy Nelson
After adding their rule 5 guys, they’ll have to clear roster space for 4-5 free agents or by filling these needs with trades.
Some projections have the Giants getting Scherzer and Verlander. I don’t see them getting either of these guys. I don’t see them trying to compete and running up the payroll just yet. I can’t see Belt accepting a QO from the Giants unless he really loves it there especially coming off a career year and a chance to cash in. There’s no reason to prolong the inevitable. The Giants were projected as a <500 team last year. How the hell do they expect to compete with Buster moving on and an entire pitching staff that needs to be replaced? They're just not ready to go all in and compete for a title. Last year was a miracle season. If he accepts the QO, he runs the risk of being traded at the deadline anyways, or not being picked up the following year. If he does accept, he's probably thinking retirement soon.
I disagree with your premise that the Giants won’t try to compete next year. They have tons of money to spend and could easily sign Scherzer, Verlander and Semien along with bringing back Gausman and Belt. Well maybe they couldn’t do it easily, but they could do it if they wanted to and since they fill up the ballpark on a regular basis, they just might want to.
AC, any chance we go after the Japanese outfielder? There’s no qualifying pick to work around there.
Bobby, everything about him says he can play at the MLB level. But so did Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama. Fast hands with a quick stroke through the ball. He is a RH hitter with power. He should be on the list, but probably more as a DH than as a fielder. He is a relatively poor defensive 3B, and is not a stellar OF. He apparently has a decent arm which makes him a RF candidate for some teams (not LAD). Yes, he could play LF, but I still prefer AJ Pollock. He will get more than enough offers that the need for a RH power bat off the bench will not be enough to entice him to come to LAD. The chatter is that the Rays are interested, but they liked and signed Tsutsugo. Texas apparently is also one of the favorites to land him.
Not sure we should be writing off Yoshi Tsutsugo just yet. He had a really nice run with Pittsburgh at the end of last season which will probably lead to a contract for 2022. Let’s see how that goes. We may yet be sorry we let him go for nothing.
Hello Dodger fans. My 2022 offseason plan is below:
1. Sign Semien to 5y/ $125m contract with opt-out after two seasons.
2. Sign Stroman to 3y/$72m contract
3. Sign Knebel to 2y/$14m contract
3. Address bench later in the offseason [not reflected below]
26 man roster
C-Smith
1B-Muncy
2B-Semien
SS-Turner
3B-Turner
LF-Pollock
CF-Bellinger
RF-Betts
BC-Barnes
BIF-Rios
BIF-Neuse
BOF-Lux
PH-Beaty
SP-Buehler
SP-Urias
SP-Stroman
SP-Heaney
SP-Gonsolin
RP-Treinen
RP-Knebel
RP-Graterol
RP-Vesia
RP-Bickford
RP-Price
RP-Gonzalez
RP-Nunez
With all the complaining I’ve heard about Jansen through several years, there’s gonna be a real reason to gripe if he doesn’t return regardless of who you think can step into his part. I was watching Dodgers pre-Kenley and the bullpen was always in great need. Maybe Kenley won’t be able to fill his own shoes forward, but what he has been is on the small list of one of the all time greats and I hope the Dodgers are smart enough secure him moving. I surely can’t imagine Kershaw playing elsewhere. But baseball isn’t really all that important and in the gist of what it’s worth I’m finding more and more things to dislike connected to the nation’s pastime. And besides, it’s someone else’s lives and agents and commission and fantasy and accomplishments and failures. Just walking is hard enough for me.
And from the rumor mill;
ESPN’s @kileymcd writes that “the Yankees are the most motivated” to give Carlos Correa an offer in the $300 million range before December 1st.
I bet Andrew would love to see the Yankees sign Correa before December 1st since the Yankees are by far his greatest competition for Seager.
The Tigers and Phillies both need shortstops but I’m not sure Corey wants to move to Detroit and play for a team which is still a year or two away from the playoffs and also not sure that the Phillies are going to spend 300 mil on a shortstop when they’ve already given Harper a huge deal and are desperate to improve their pitching. They’re much more likely to sign Baez/Story/Semien at a lower amount.
The Mariners are another possibility for Corey but after the way his brother’s time there ended, I think that might be a deal killer.
So…………………………..if the Yanks sign Correa that makes Seager’s return to L.A. a much stronger possibility.
CK, Seager and his brother all go to Texas!. Just kidding, but one story I read a while ago suggested it was the most logical landing spot where Corey and Kyle could play on the same team.
I never was any good at predictions. So jumping into that is something I am not prepared to do. I think CK will go where his heart and family tell him. Corey is going to be very expensive to keep, and as much as I would love to see him stay, I have seen far too many favorites leave over the years to shed any tears over any player that leaves. I wish all of them well unless they sign with SF or the Padres. Then I put a hex on them and the team they signed with. Heaney is a typical AF low risk high reward signing. He has good stuff, maybe a new approach is needed. Remember how much better Julio got when he quit trying to be so fine and got aggressive. Same with Maeda. We may see some minor trades made to shore up the bench. Sorry Dreamweaver, none of those signings are going to happen. And until they get some definitive info on the Bauer situation, nothing of major importance outside of their own free agents will transpire.
The Dodgers payroll heading into 2022 is such that absent major restructuring, they will not likely be able to sign major free agents, including their own.
Players under contract:
Bauer – $35,333,333 (AAV $34MM)
Price – $32MM (Dodgers pay 1/2) – (AAV $31MM)
Betts – $22,916.000 (AAV $25,554,000)
J Turner – $20MM (AAV $17MM)
Pollock – $13MM (AAV $12MM)
Treinen – $8MM
Heaney – $8,5MM
Muncy – $13MM – (AAV $8.6MM)
Buehler – $4.25 MM
Kahnle – $3.25MM
Barnes – $2.65MM
Total AAV – $154MM
Arb eligible players –
T Turner – $19.8MM (est)
Bellinger – $16.1 MM
Urias – $8.8 MM
Ferguson – $700K
Total – $49.4MM
Estimates for pre-arb players – total $9.1MM
Add $4MM for Kelly buyout
Total est payroll – $206MM (data courtesy of Fangraphs)
The idea that Kershaw, Scherzer, Seager, Kelly, Taylor, Knebel, Jansen, Puljols et al are all returning (or mostly returning) is just not happening.
I expect that Kershaw will be back on an incentive-laden deal. Scherzer is gone – they aren’t going to pay him the $35MM+ deal to bring him back unless they get out from under the Bauer contract. Seager is likely gone – so too is Jansen.
No one knows what the new CBA will look like, but the Dodgers are likely going to want to re-set if the luxury tax remains a part of it. There are only so many $30MM+ AAV contracts that the Dodgers can carry.
No need for speculation. Apparently, OldBear48 can see the future. Our work here is done.
I don’t understand why Price’s AAV is listed at 31MM if we’ve never paid him more than 16MM.
They only count 1/2 as our salary commitment as part of the $154 MM – the Sox pay the rest and it’s their hit against the cap.
Got it. Thanks.
If you aren’t into Dodger prospects, ignore what I’ve written below, but if you are, the link I’ve included here is well worth the read. It’s column 1 of 3 on the excellent website Future Dodgers. A very complete rundown on prospects you know plus lots of names you may never have heard of. This one is on the offense, the next will be pitchers and the third will be misc. stuff.
If you’re a prospect nerd or even have casual interest, go here:
https://futuredodgers.wordpress.com/2021/11/05/2021-milb-review-part-one-offense/
One of my go to sites.
How much is this player worth in the upcoming FA market with these career stats?:
Season avg games played – 116
Games played % – 66%
AVG – .297
OBP – .367
SLG – .504
OPS – .870
Hits – 133
HR’s – 21
RBi -70
SO% – 20%
BB% – 11%
These are Corey Seager’s stats. The talk of 10 yrs @ $300-325M is to me doesn’t make sense. As a comparison Arenado signed an 8 year $260M contract at the same age (27) as Corey is now. Arenado has been much more productive offensively, far superior defensively, and has a 99 games played %. Seager has a 66 GP% which could be a red flag when it comes to signing him for 10+ years. Arenado with a 99 GP% gets 8 years and Seager with a 66 GP% projected to get 10 years? This was what teams have been shying away from in recent years. Odds are that Corey is not going to age well considering his past injury history. I know some of his injuries were out of his control, but it is what it is. With Mookie breaking down already I don’t think they can afford to have two high priced position players potentially breaking down on the payroll.
But, it’s not my money and stupid signings happen all the time. Resign with the Dodgers for 8 years/$225M or sign with someone else 12 years/$500M. Let’s see what happens.
I cannot disagree. Seager is my favorite player, and I would like for him to return to LAD , but not at $300MM. That is just an albatross contract waiting to happen. Some do not believe that the CBT is a legit barrier, and I was certainly wrong about it last year. But what has happened to Mookie and Bauer I am sure is giving AF pause when it comes to big contracts. I still believe that the Dodgers will exceed it, but not like last year, and they should be in a position to drop below it after 2022. LAD does not need a SS. They have one in Trea Turner. They need starting pitching and I think that is where their focus and $$$ will be concentrated on. They need bench support, but that will come later, especially after the non-tenders. IMO, if LAD fans are looking for big name FA contracts, they will be disappointed. Again, IMO, Andrew Heaney is exactly the type of FA the Dodgers will be signing. Someone they can polish and try to see if there is a diamond underneath. If not move on. I also think they will be looking hard for the next Max Muncy, CT3, and JT off the waiver wire.
Next year?
1. Betts RF
2. Muncy 1B
3. Turner SS
4. Bellinger CF
5. Smith C
6. Rios/Turner 3B
7. Lux 2B
8. Pollock/Pederson LF
Zero chance. AF will do something.
Are you saying Pederson is nothing?
Last year…
Joc v LHP .265/.348/.378/.726
Joc v RHP .230/.298/.435/.733
AJ v LHP .288/.360/.512/.872
AJ v RHP .301/.353/.548/.902
Zero chance, AF will do something better. I’ll take Joc over McKinney.
That lineup will be difficult to put on the field because I included Rios and Busch in the trade for Matt Chapman. This might not seem logical due to the Dodger needing depth in their rotation but I would also be willing to trade White or Gonsolen along with Rios for Chapman. Okay, my final offer is Rios and Muncy for Chapman.
I also traded Trea Turner to the Twins for Buxton. The Twins shortstop Andrelton Simmons, is now a free agent and the Twins therefore need a shortstop. Like Turner, Buxton is a Free Agent in 2023.
2B Betts
SS Lux
CF Buxton
1B Bellinger
C Smith
3B Chapman
RF Pederson until Pages takes over LF.
LF Pollock until Vargas takes over 1B and Bellinger moves to RF
DH Turner
This assumes Seager gets a mega contract elsewhere.
Buehler, Urias, Heany, and eventually May, Miller, Jackson, Pepiot, Knack
Bums, you have outdone yourself on this one. What is it about Chapman that you like? I know he is a GG 3B, but his offense is atrocious.
For 2021 – .210/.314/.403/.716 – 27 HRs, 15 doubles, 3 triples and a whopping 202 strikeouts. Outside of the defense, I am betting that Rios can match those numbers quite handily. And you want to add Busch or White or Gonsolin for a hitter with 202 Ks?
The Dodgers would not take Chapman straight up for Muncy. Muncy hit .249/.368/.527/.895 – 36 HRs, 26 doubles, 2 triples and 120 K’s. I am comfortable that LAD will exercise their $13MM option for 2023, and he will be a FA in 2024, just as will Chapman. Muncy has a 2022 salary of $11.5MM, but an AAV of only $8.67MM. Chapman is expected to earn $9.5MM in arbitration. So the Dodgers will get a much lesser hitter and have a higher AAV. Nearly 200 OPS difference. Muncy is better in all three BA/OBP/SLG. And he has more HR. But Chapman does have 82 more K. And you want to include Rios. I do not think this is going to happen.
I do not know where to begin with your rotation. Bobby Miller just got lit up yesterday in his 2nd bad outing in the AFL. In 10 IP, his ERA is 9.90 and a WHIP of 1.700. He has 10K/7BB and given up 3 HR. I will say it again, Bobby Miller is not ready. I think he will be good, but not in MLB in 2022. Jackson may in fact be in the rotation by default (along with White and Gonsolin). May will be an opener type pitcher in August, but will not be a regular rotation member next year. The Dodgers will not push him. They want him ready for 2023. They could have pushed both Ferguson and Kahnle for Sept/Oct and chose not to. They just do not take chances with their prospects. Knack and Pepiot may be more suited for relief than starting in 2022, although I am still hopeful that Pepiot will get his command that was waaaaay off in AAA. He needs work on his delivery to stay consistent. He still pencils out to a #3 rotation ceiling. His change will be a money pitch as a reliever. Knack dominated with younger players in Great Lakes and competed in AA. But he is not ready to join the LAD rotation. He is a strikeout pitcher and minimal BB, and looks to be an ideal reliever.
Not even worth commenting on. It makes no sense. Might was well just trade for Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna, and Nolan Arenado, Sign Correa, Verlander and Scherzer.
2B T Turner
RF Betts
CF Acuna Jr.
LF Judge
1B Belli
SS Correa
DH Muncy
3B Arranado
C Muncy
Bueller
Urias
Scherzer
Verlander
Who cares with these 4
Not enough that we forced Muncy to play a below average second and third along with his above average time at first base. Now you want to make him a catcher and DH him at the same time? I don’t think Manfred will let you do that.
Chapman has a career 120 OPS+
In 2019 he had 36 home runs and a 127 OPS+
It’s always nice to be able to talk things over with someone and after hearing your thoughts AC, I will withdraw my third option and not offer Muncy in a trade for Chapman. Instead, I will ask for Montas to be included with Chapman.
So now it’s Rios, Muncy, White for Chapman and Montas.
Looks like the A’s are going to be trading a bunch of their players. Some think their payroll will get as low as 40 million. One reason they let Melvin go with no compensation. So both Chapman and Olson going to be on the market. I do not think AF will make that kind of trade.
SS T.Turner
RF Betts
CF Bellinger
C Smith
1B Muncy
DH J.Turner
3B Ríos / Vargas
LF Pollock / Outman
2B Lux
Miguel Vargas is just 21, but at least he played 83 games at AA. I think there’s a chance he gets called up during the season. James Outman is 24, but he only played 39 games at AA. It would be a stretch to expect him to contribute next year.
A’s offering both Manea and Montas as trade possibilities. Two very good pitchers.
A’s are offering Manea and Montas for trade possibilities.
AF is feeling nostalgic; he’ll trade for Montas.
LAD MiLB Free Agents:
C Hamlet Marte
C Tony Wolters
C Anthony Bemboon
IF Matt Davidson
IF Elliot Soto
IF Carlos Asuaje
IF Cristian Santana
OF Romer Cuadrado
RHP Yefry Ramirez
LHP James Pazos
RHP Nick Tropeano
RHP Aaron Wilkerson
RHP Brock Stewart
RHP Markus Solbach
RHP Andrew Schwaab
RHP Brandon Morrow
RHP Austin Bibens-Dirkx
LHP Michael Boyle
RHP Bryan Brickhouse
RHP Nolan Long
RHP Jesus Vargas
Wow, Brock Stewart has been with us for a long time!
He left and came back as a minor league free agent. In 2019 he was claimed by the Blue Jays from the Dodgers, At the end of 2019 he was claimed by the Cubs in the rule 5 draft from Toronto. May of 2020 Cubs released him. No minor league ball in 2020, but the Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal last winter. He spent all season inactive.
How about Gonsolin, Jackson, Price(we pay half) and Pages for Suarez and Castillo but only if we get the DH. JT would be DH/3B.
I actually like that deal. Suarez can play some third. Their fielding avgs are not very far apart. The only thing I do not like is that you are trading 3 starting pitchers. I doubt AF would trade that much of his depth at that position.
Price has ZERO value, but if they will take him… pull the trigger!
They won’t!