LAD and Free Agency???

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1. This post was generated before learning that Scott Alexander was waived. The Dodgers appear to have an additional $1.3MM available. For the record, I do believe LAD will exceed the CBT, but not so much that they will lose draft picks or draft positions.

   1. I don’t think the draft picks or positions means as much to the Dodgers as you do. They’re also offsetting those lost and lowered picks with picks gained via the QO.

2. Golden era HOF nominees announced. 3 players with Dodger ties on the list, Dick Allen, Maury Wills and Gil Hodges. The list for old timers and negro league players also announced. Most likely candidate there in my mind would be Buck O’Neill. Lefty O’Doul and Bill Dahlen also on the list. Minnie Minoso, Billy Pierce, and Jim Kaat also on the Golden era list as is Ken Boyer who also spent a short time as a Dodger. Maris, Oliva and Murtaugh on the list too

   1. Hodges’ last chance? I remember 5 yrs. ago when the Commitee met. Hodges did not come close to the 12 votes required out of the 16 commitee members. As a matter of fact , I don’t believe any one received enough votes. I wish there was a way to contact the members and to let them know my (our?) feelings about Hodges. Here’s to hope for a miracle.

      1. Probably. You could possibly send a letter to the Hall of Fame. Hodges definitely belongs. There will be two committees, one for golden era and another for the oldtimers and Negro leagues. Ortiz and Rodriguez added to the eligible for election to the Hall. Last chance for Bonds and Clemens, and Schilling.

3. I wonder if Justin Verlander is the oldest player to get the QO?

4. Well, if there’s one thing we learned from last year is, if you’re gonna go over, you might as well go big. As far as Trevor Bauer goes, he’s a dumbass and a weirdo. But, there was no reason to believe he was going to get into the trouble that he got into at the time of his signing. Just like there’s no reason to believe he’ll do something this stupid again with all that he’s lost. The Braves won the Championship this year with a couple of hot hitters and a couple of good pitching performances. You saw what our pitching did against the Braves. It’s easy to say that signing Bauer was a mistake, just like it’s easy to say using our starters in relief was a mistake by Doc and AF and possibly cost us another Championship. But, at the time with respect to Bauer, it was absolutely the right move.

   People conveniently forget that Bauer was arguably the best pitcher in the league before he went down with that brain injury. He led the league in quality starts, innings pitched and I think K’s when he went down. Sure it was a mistake to sign him now that he got screwed out of pitching for at least half a season, but you can make that case for Mookie as well, who was a shell of what he was the year before. Just like Bauer, there’s no way you could know that Betts would have a hip injury ahead of time. One difference is “The gift that keeps giving” will be giving some of that money back once his “administrative leave” is converted into a suspension.

   Moving on…

   Big deal we if we drop 10 spots when we pick around 30 anyways. Is there really that big a difference between the 30th pick and the 40th? The biggest problem that I see is rewarding teams like the Cheaters who throw several seasons in a row and get rewarded with the top pick in the draft while punishing teams that do well with a crap pick. I would really like to see that addressed in the next CBA. It probably won’t, so I won’t spend a lot of time wishing for something the has almost no chance of happening.

   So, we’re right up against the fake cap. The way I look at this is we don’t have a CBA, so there are no rules defined as of today so I don’t want to speculate about penalties or anything like that. It would be senseless for a fan to try to plan roster moves based on fictional salaries and fictional rules which is where we are today. To me, I think spending will be less restrictive going forward than it was under the last deal. There’s no freaking way the owners are going to get their wish that salaries will go down. I don’t see any teams going bankrupt except the McCourt Dodgers who were used as a big fat ATM machine by the McCourts who drained the team in order to buy a multitude of real estate properties putting the team into bankruptcy only to make close to another billion once it was finally sold to a group that’s arguable made even more money. Wow, what a scam! Say what you want about McCourt, but that dude had the balls to pull off a heist of a lifetime and still owns the freaking parking lots surrounding the stadium.

   Let’s just say the cap maybe increases a little bit and the penalties decrease a little bit. This is what I see as ultimately happening. Is it really that far out of the realm of possibility that the Dodgers find 60 – 70 M to add to where we’re at with payroll right now?

   With Bauer’s full salary we’re just below the fake cap. If that is reduced by half we’ll have around $20M below the cap (give or take a few $M). If we start at $20 under and we add an additional $50M it’s still lower than we were last year. So, let’s go with at $70M number.

   Can we get Seager, Scherzer and Kershaw to resign for that $70M is the question. (If Bauer isn’t suspended, and we don’t get cap relief because of it, we don’t need Kershaw and Scherzer). I don’t think that’s beyond the realm of possibility either. For reference, Mookie’s luxury tax salary is just north of $25M. Can we get Corey to ink for money in the same neighborhood? What about Story, Correa, Baez or Semien? With that kind of supply, I would think the price drops a little considering Tatis Jr is at around $25M payroll salary.

   I think it’s way too early to get into nuts and bolts with the pending CBA. I agree with AC that there’s little chance that any big names are going to sign before the next CBA is settled. I just think it’s within the realm of possibility for the Dodgers to bring back Seager, Max and Kershaw if that’s what they think is needed to get back to the World Series. I will concede that I think AF is good at what he does and the team is interested in keeping the wallet open when they’re this close.

   One more note. AF and his team is running a business. In regards to Clayton, he severely underperformed his last contract. In other words, they paid him more than what he delivered. Do you really think that’s going to happen again just because he’s Clayton Kershaw? His WAR was 2.1 last year and 3.0 in the previous full season. What is a 2.0 – 2.5 pitcher worth? One that spends significant time on the IL for the last 5-6 years? I think Clayton owes the Dodgers a homeboy deal. $10M plus incentives? That would leave $30M each for Seags and Mad Max.

   1. Bauer was very good at the time he went nutzo, but he was no where near being the best in the league. He had 17 starts, a 8-5 record, 2.59 ERA, 1.003 Whip, and 137 K’s in 107 innings. He also gave up 19HR’s. deGrom pitched in 15 games, had a 7-2 record, 1.08 ERA, 0.554 WHIP and 146 K’s in 97 innings. He also gave up only 6 dingers and was at the time he went down a 5 WAR pitcher. Clearly the leader for the Cy Young at that point. Bauer was at 2.9.

      1. If you think being the 2nd best pitcher in the league is “Nowhere near being the best in the league”, I really don’t know what to say. I think that’s a completely unreasonable argument.

         The reason he was “Arguably” the best pitcher in the league is that he had more wins than DeGrom, more quality starts and more innings pitched and he didn’t miss any of his starts. Yes, the stats say DeGrom was more effective when he was out there, but IMO there’s a lot to be said for not missing your turn in the rotation and giving the bullpen a breather. So yes, he was still “Arguably” the best pitcher because he was on the hill and gave his team a chance to win every time he took the ball.

         No knock on DeGrom. He was absolutely filthy when he was out there. He was better on most days. But, nonetheless, Bauer gave his team a good shot at winning every single time he pitched, even while dealing with the “Distraction”. I’ll take any pitcher that gives his team a chance to win every time out. There isn’t many of those guys out there.

         Bauer was suspended for an indiscretion that was not 100% his fault. DeGrom missed more time due to injuries. I would much rather have a healthy, younger Bauer going into next year that a broken, older DeGrom.

      2. I will go arguably Bauer was not even the best pitcher on LAD at the time of his administrative leave. I would give the nod to Walker Buehler.

         Trevor Bauer – 8-5 (team 8-9), 107.2 IP, 2.59 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 137 K, 19 HR
         Walker Buehler – 8-1 (team 12-4), 103.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 101 K, 13 HR

         Other pitchers who I would have rated superior to Bauer other than the obvious de Grom.

         Brandon Woodruff – 7-3 (team 12-4), 101 IP, 1.87 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 119 K, 9 HR
         Zack Wheeler – 6-4 (team 9-7), 106.1 IP, 2.20 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 130 K, 7 HR
         Max Scherzer – 7-4 (team 9-6), 88.1 IP, 2.14 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 119 K, 12 HR
         Julio Urias – 9-3 (team 12-4), 93.1 IP, 3.95 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 107 K, 14 HR

         The team was 8-9 when Bauer started. The only pitcher above where the team had more losses with that pitcher than wins. After Bauer’s last game, the team was 48-31. Subsequently, the team went 58-25. The TEAM was arguably better without Bauer than with him.

         B&P wants Bauer, while quite a few of us do not. He is currently on the roster. However, AF signed him, now he has to accept the consequences. No team is going to take him off the Dodgers hands.

         1. Thanks Jeff, I knew there were others out there at the time who were doing as well if not better than Bauer. deGrom had one less win, 3 less losses in while pitching only 2 games less than Bauer, plus he gave up only 6 HR’s in almost 100 innings pitched and struck out 9 more than Bauer in 10 innings less. He was 2 WAR points ahead of him and had a WHIP that was almost .500 lower than Bauer. As for he would not do something stupid like that again? He did it twice this season with the same bimbo. I do not care how smart he might be, but on the level of common sense, he is below a moron.

5. I was listening to MLB and I would say it is a certainty that the luxury tax will go up. I would guess it will be 10% or so, with some type of escalator clause for the duration of the deal.

   MLB also wants to implement some way for superstars to get paid sooner in their careers. That is fair, in my opinion.

   I think the MLB and MiLB Minimums will go up dramatically and MLB has already announced they will house the minor leaguers. I would think that would add a couple million per team in costs.

   The best thing that can happen to the Dodgers is for Bauer to be suspended for the year, but absent an arrest, that ain’t gonna’ happen.

   The ONLY way I would sign Scherzer is to a three-year deal with a vesting option when a certain threshold of innings is met. For example, let’s say Scherzer signs a three year $105 Million dollar deal with 150 innings being the vesting option for the next season. If he doesn’t hit it, he is a free agent.

   Kershaw is going to get the QO and take it. Whether he plays next year is open for conjecture.

   1. Well, if he get’s suspended the entire year, this forces you to spend big on a front line starting pitcher just to break even. Then you’re stuck with both (and all the associated payroll) the following year, but with Bauer at a reduced salary (compared to this year) and having not pitched in a year and a half.

      If he’s suspended half the year, you probably need additional rotation help at the beginning of the year at the very least. This may create a log jam at the end of the year. If Bauer pitches well in the second half, he opts out and goes back into free agency with everything behind him.

      If he’s not suspended, you don’t need to add another ace. You can bring back Kershaw and Seager and be done with it.

      Some may prefer Scherzer over Bauer. I don’t. I look at this only from an on the field view. Bauer was better than Scherzer when he went down. I lost a little Scherzer luster when he couldn’t answer the bell in the Postseason.

      I think a lot of the narrative about players not wanting him back is overblown. Every ballplayer has had to play with teammates they can’t stand their entire lives. Moreso when you’re at the top of the talent pool and you’re playing on competitive teams. Before the infamous incident, players seemed to enjoy having him around.

      1. A little aside on “the Bauer sitch”. There were a few during discussions on him who were saying the sheeyit he got himself into was something they were SURE that he did everything in all the accusations, kind of a “who would make that shit up” kind of thing. And many of us contended that fraud attempts like the woman might have engaged in were more common than others would believe. Sure seems convenient that I saw yesterday that Dave Portnoy of Barstool Sports is being accused by a young woman of sexual assault that he contends was 100% consensual & apparently has at least a number of saved conversations to back it up. The gist is that she had shared that she wanted to experience a “rape fantasy” with him & he apparently obliged at some level. And the article I read had the gist of her complaint being that she had “felt raped” after their encounter. Talk about a head spinner, a woman asks a dude for rape fantasy, he apparently obliges, and now she is trying to go after him for making her feel raped. I swear, reality is sure stranger than fiction.
         cheers
         pb+

6. Since the Dodgers look at player payroll over multiple years, no doubt they saw this coming. So what is the plan? Probably a plan A, a plan B and a Plan C. Do they want Corey Seager back? I’m sure they do. Is that realistic? Hey, we’re talking baseball salaries, is anything realistic?

   Some were obviously surprised the Dodgers exceeded payroll projections in 2021. Yes, Trevor Bauer was excessive. But, for whatever reason, they opted to go there. Didn’t work, not because of talent. The Dodgers were right about that. Okay, the player was a little edgy, but not in their wildest dreams could they project something like this happening. Is the contract an obstacle moving forward? A little or a lot? Definitely a little, maybe not a lot. Things were written when Bauer was signed, questioning how the contract would impact the team moving forward —- what about Seager, Clayton Kershaw? They apparently tried to extend Seager this summer.

   They probably projected moving on from Kenley Jansen and Chris Taylor. I’m also certain they never saw an opportunity to trade for Trea Turner or Max Scherzer. If Bauer didn’t derail, would they still have pursued Scherzer? Maybe. Probably. It’s Scherzer, after all.

   But if Bauer had produced would the Dodgers now find themselves in this predicament? Signing Scherzer a must with a lot of uncertainty ahead. What about Kershaw. He’s different, iconic to the Dodgers and the fans. So take him out of the equation. If he wants to return, the Dodgers work it out.

   Considering payroll and all, the Dodgers are somewhat at a turning point. They have a rotation of Julio Urias, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, maybe Kershaw, then a lot of young arms. Will that be enough? MLB can free up Bauer’s money by suspending him or allowing him to play, which pretty much no one thinks will happen. So the Dodgers can take an educated guess and think Bauer will be suspended and go after Scherzer, hope he holds up in 2022 and beyond. Of course, MLB can make a decision, leaving little doubt moving forward.

   That leaves Seager. No doubt they want him back, but they have Trea to slide over and Gavin Lux to take over second. Dave Roberts even offered an earlier comment saying Lux returning to the infield would be a good thing. Second base awaits. I can’t see them trading Turner under any circumstances, too much upside. Andrew Friedman even said the Dodgers like what speed brings, steal a base, going first to third etc. But for whatever reason they simply weren’t able to cash more opportunities in … I’m sure they look hard for an answer moving forward. Maybe it’s approach.

   So if nothing changes, Seager is probably gone, unless none of this matters and the Dodgers move toward $300 million, not exactly out of the realm of possibility. Besides they need a third baseman moving forward and a great bat to boot and that’s Seager. If the money is right, would Corey resist the move. Probably not.

   Good write-up, Jeff.

   1. I agree with much of this. It looks to me like they decided they will blow past the CBA for 2-3 three years before getting back under when they signed Bauer. I think resigning Seager is in their plans since they offered him an extension during this past season. Next year, JT, Price and Trea Turner all fall off the payroll. Bauer falls off next year or the following.

      I don’t think Max, Clayton or Seager are even close to automatic signs. Lucky for the Dodgers, their two biggest needs (Starting Pitching and Shortstop with power) have a lot of supply in the free agent market. When supply is high, prices generally fall to some extent. A team like the Tigers could push off their shortstop need for another year if necessary when Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts will be free agents. This could reduce demand similarly driving price downward.

      In all, I think bringing back a top notch shortstop and starting pitcher is doable. I think bringing back a closer or utility guy for $15M per year is less doable. It sure looks to me that the Dodgers are willing to spend to fill a need, or to get elite talent.

7. It’s always interesting and fun to try to predict what will go on in the offseason. But, all is mute until the new CBA is agreed upon. If issues drag on for any length of time and cause a delay in starting the 2022 season it will be a black eye for baseball and may start the decline of interest in the game especially with younger fans. So, the sooner the better with new CBA. With that done, the fun will really start for the Dodgers. With all the recent success the Dodgers have had it’s crazy to see so much potential roster turmoil.

   Also mentioned above is how Boras will navigate the marketplace. He usually has his players wait out the market until Jan-Feb. With the CBA uncertainty he may change strategy and get his guys signed ASAP. Let’s hope for logical minds and a speedy resolution by the league and the players.\
   Carry on.

   1. Logical minds? Surely you jest Ted. What I am hoping is that they do not shoot themselves and baseball in the foot. There has not been a real cohesion between MLB and the MLBPA for years. MLB wants the game to be quicker, players want higher pay and more benefits. MLB wants expanded playoffs, players want to be substantialy compensated for the extra games. Problem lies in the fact that players have to deal with the owners shill, Manfred.

      1. Logical minds? I jest indeed!

8. 5/160 the first offer from the Houston Astros for Correa.

   1. Mr. Correa will not be playing for the Astros next year.

      1. $32M a year just doesn’t buy much anymore does it.

9. https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts/joc-pederson-atlanta-braves-mlb-baseball

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