Please excuse the timing of this post. It was written early last week, however I was rushed to the ER with what turned out to be a TIA or mini stroke. I was in the hospital being pricked and probed for nearly three days, but came away with a clean bill of health. So now I am publishing, albeit a tad tardy.
IMO there was very little difference between LAD and ATL. SP was poor for both teams, although LAD was putrid. RP was okay for ATL and very good for LAD. Overall team pitching and team hitting were pretty much identical.
ERA – LAD (4.50), ATL (4.67)…WHIP LAD (1.365), ATL (1.385)
Batting slash lines – LAD (.250/.330/4.25/.755), ATL (.260/.321/.422/.743)
But when you break down the starting vs relief pitching, that is where the differences are highlighted.
Starter ERA – LAD (7.71), ATL (4.56) – WHIP LAD (1.98) ATL (1.56) – IP LAD (18.2) ATL (23.2)
Reliever ERA – LAD (2.70), ATL (4.76) – WHIP LAD (1.02) ATL (1.24) – IP LAD (33.1) ATL (28.1)
I am sure the nerds are going to have a gazillion algorithms to identify what went wrong with the pitching, but to most observers it was clear…the LAD starters were gassed. What will that mean for 2022? How many 7-8 IP starts are we going to see? How many starters will reach 33 games started or become qualified for ERA titles (162 innings pitched)? The Dodgers development team are already putting big restrictions on IP and # of pitches for their MiLB pitchers.
The bench? The Atlanta bench was no better than LAD. Atlanta bench of Ehire Adrianza, Guillermo Heredia, Jorge Soler, Orlando Arcia, Cristian Pache, and Johan Camargo went a combined 2-17. The Dodgers bench of Austin Barnes, Matt Beaty, Andy Burns, Gavin Lux, Albert Pujols (games he did not start), Steven Souza Jr. went a combined 1-21.
The problem as I saw it was the poor LAD starting pitching, Atlanta clutch hitting (see below), and Eddie Rosario. BTW, the Atlanta cost for Rosario? Eddie Rosario plus cash from Cleveland for Pablo Sandoval. Braves other deadline transactions:
Joc from Cubs for 23 year old 1B/DH who has reached A+ with a career line of .255/.368/.482/.850 and a 39% K rate.
Jorge Soler from KC for 23 year old RHRP who has reached A+.
Adam Duvall from Miami for 25 year old backup catcher Alex Jackson with a career line in 173 PA of .132/.243/.225/.468
What I find surprising was that there was not much returned from the Braves for four decent to good Major League OF. And yet after the trade deadline, DJ Peters was simply released by LAD. Would Cleveland, Cubs, Miami, or KC made their same deal to LAD for Peters. I cannot believe that Peters’ was so devalued by other teams that he fell below the return those teams got from Atlanta. He wasn’t worth a low valued lottery pick? If I were granted an interview with AF that is one of the questions I would absolutely ask.
The number 1 change I would want if I were King of LAD and could make uninformed decisions, I would terminate the contract of RVS. When he first signed to be a hitting coach with LAD, I said that I would wait and see. I have seen enough. The Dodgers are too one-dimensional. It is expected that with their talent, the offensive numbers could be extraordinary in blow out games. But their ability to come back and win in close games was an achilles heel for LAD this year. How much was written this year (on this site and others) about how lucky teams were with balls that were hit and somehow found the outfield grass for a hit. That is the point…the balls were actually hit. In Game 6, the Dodgers had runners on 2nd and 3rd with nobody out and the next three RHH batters struck out against a LHRP. For my memory, that was fairly emblematic for the team during the season. In further examination of clutch performances of the NLCS, the LAD batting line WRISP was .244/.370/.444/.815 (11-45), while Atlanta had a batting line WRISP of .343/.442/.571/1.013 (12-35). The Braves got one more clutch hit with 10 less ABs.
One other observation…while as a fan, I have no regrets for not re-signing Kike’ and Joc, however I think the Dodgers missed their personalities. Both Kike’ and Joc are kids having fun playing a game. The current LAD roster is chock-full of serious and stoic personalities. Tio Albert kept them lose, but who else? They could use a Frankie Lindor type personality to keep the game more fun than a business.
LAD Free Agents:
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Kenley Jansen
Max Scherzer
Chris Taylor
Tio Albert
Corey Knebel
Steven Souza Jr.
Jimmy Nelson
Cole Hamels
Danny Duffy
Currently there are 50 on the 40 man rosters with 10 players on 60 Day IL, leaving 39 after the above players are granted FA after the 5th day post World Series. This considers that Trevor Bauer will still be considered restricted and not part of the 40 man. Of the 11 free agents, IMO the Dodgers will consider a QO offer to Corey Seager and Clayton Kershaw. The current qualifying offer is $18.4MM.
Clayton Kershaw – Depending on the health of Clayton Kershaw’s elbow, AF will offer a QO to Kersh. For what Kersh means to LAD, he is worth the risk of not being able to pitch next year. Or the Dodgers can do what they did for his last two contracts…extend him now. Kershaw has technically never been a free agent, thus he is eligible for the QO. Seager is a no-brainer. He will get the QO and he will reject it.
Corey Seager – I know that there was an interview with Seager where he says he wants to stay with LAD. When asked if he wanted to stay in LA, his response…”Absolutely. I grew up here, I’ve spent a lot of time here, I believe in what these guys do. I believe in how we go about it. Yeah, absolutely.” Well Duh!!! Of course Seags is going to say he wants to stay in LA. This is a Scott Boras negotiation tip #1…never eliminate a high budget team like LAD or NYY. IMO what Corey said does not clearly indicate that he wants to stay a LAD. Since he is my favorite player, I am hoping he stays, but I put the odds at less than 50/50. If I were forced to pick a team he will sign with, it would be NYY. NYY needs a SS, needs a LH hitter, much closer to his North Carolina home, they have the dollars, and he grew up a huge NYY fan. Compared to Gleyber Torres, Seags is a gold glove SS. The other four elite FA SS, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, and Marcus Semien are all RH hitters. The Dodgers will stay in the bidding as long as they can, up to their max point, and then move in another direction. If that happens, the Dodgers are going to need to replace a .900+ OPS bat in the lineup. I have no idea how much Seags/Boras value the importance of Seager staying at SS is. It may require an overpay for him to transfer to 3B. Will AF and the owners consider this? I am sure that will be examined in full. But NYY will keep him at SS until their #1 and #3 prospects (Anthony Volpe age 20 and Oswald Peraza age 21) are ready to take over.
I cannot see Seager going to SF especially after home grown Brandon Crawford was extended. I cannot see him signing with the Asterisks. Philadelphia needs a SS and will get into the bidding, but it will be one-sided. If Detroit gets an elite SS, it will be Carlos Correa reuniting with AJ Hinch. Of the remaining top 12 salaried teams, he is not going to sign with LAA. NYM, SD, Boston, Toronto, and Atlanta are not in the market for an elite SS. St. Louis could get into the bidding but cannot stay as long as LAD, NYY, or Philadelphia. The Nationals also could be a player, especially with their relationship with Boras. But in all likelihood, this is going to come down to LAD and NYY.
One of the reasons players sign with Scott Boras is, more than any other Agent, he takes the emotion out of the decision. With Boras, $$$ is what talks. Of course there are exceptions. Strasburg told Boras he did not want to leave Washington, and yet he still got a great deal. Altuve wanted to stay with Houston and got his extension. This is something else that Scott Boras is not known for. Do not expect Julio Urias or Cody Bellinger (additional Boras clients) to sign extensions.
Max Scherzer – Another Scott Boras client. He will be expensive and want to sign for three years. He wants to pitch until he is 40. Everything I read tells me he likes pitching in LA. He knows he would be pitching for a contender all three years with LAD. However, there will be no favorable deals for this Boras client. The Dodgers will wait and see what Manfred does about Trevor Bauer after the WS, and that could indicate whether LAD will be in on Max. I have no idea what is to become of Bauer, but there are too many connected MLB sports journalists who believe he will be suspended for all of 2022. For so many to make that observation, there has to be some kind of chatter. We should not have too much longer to wonder.
CT3 – The Dodgers will make him a legit offer, but will not guarantee him a starting position. There is no doubt how valuable CT3 has been, especially without Kike’. However, IMO, he will not get a $18.4MM QO. I keep reading that CT3 is going to get $50-$60MM deal, and I have to ask why? Kike’ Hernandez got two years and $14MM. Two years ago, LAD extended Max Muncy for 3 years $26MM. Will they pay CT3 more at an older age? Maybe, because of his versatility, even with less power and less OBP. IMO, he is not going to get Ben Zobrist money. It is hard to know what the Dodgers dollar limits will be for CT3 not knowing what they are expecting out of Gavin Lux or Zach McKinstry. If the Dodgers re-sign Seags, then LAD does not need CT3 as they have Lux and McKinstry as their utility players. If they do not re-sign Seags, CT3 becomes more of a consideration, and more of a larger contract consideration. As a utility player, I cannot see how they offer CT3 more than Max Muncy, knowing Muncy can play 2B and 3B as well. I was shocked at how little Kike’ got last year, so I am not expecting the Dodgers to make an over-aggressive offer. They do need his RHB. Maybe LAD re-signs CT3 and Marcus Semien for less $$$ than LHH Seags. Not my preference, but one to consider. Although I am a Marcus Semien fan.
KJ – KJ has made it clear that he wants to retire as a Dodger. He is borderline HOF. With 350 saves, he is currently #13 with only Craig Kimbrel as active and with more saves (372). Hoyt Wilhelm was the first reliever to be inducted to HOF (1985). He had 228 saves when saves were far less prominent. There have been seven more relievers inducted since.
Hoyt Wilhelm – 1992 (341 saves)
Dennis Eckersley – 2004 (390 saves)
Bruce Sutter – 2006 (300 saves)
Goose Gossage – 2008 (310 saves)
Trevor Hoffman – 2018 (601 saves)
Lee Smith – 2019 (478 saves)
Mariano Rivera – 2019 (652 saves)
I think it is probable that KJ will get 400+ saves and then it will get interesting. To date, only John Franco (424 saves) has 400+ saves and not be inducted into the HOF. Billy Wagner has four more years to go from 46.4% to 75% (115 additional votes). I think he eventually gets there. Francisco Rodriguez has 437 saves but will not be eligible until 2023. Does KJ have another 88 saves in him which would put him either 4th or 5th all-time, depending on where Craig Kimbrel finishes up? Regardless, I would like to see him get those 88 saves for the Dodgers and then make a convincing case for induction as a LAD. He will not get 5 years, but maybe 2 plus a team option. It has already reported that LAD will not exercise Joe Kelly’s option. This past winter LAD Director of Player Performance, Brandon McDaniel, “suggested KJ tweak his winter workout regimen, scrapping some heavy weight-lifting for more distance running, jumping and agility drills in an effort to be more flexible and athletic,” per LA Times staff writer, Mike Digiovanna. His velo and vertical movement are favorably compared to his 2017 magical year. He is continuing to evolve and I would welcome another three years of KJ. Did he have some clunkers, especially in mid-July? Absolutely. But something clicked after that breakdown, because he was near unhittable after that stretch of bad outings. KJ has been a great Dodger, and IMO Blake Treinen is a perfect setup guy. I am not about to give the closer job to Brusdar Graterol, or Tommy Kahnle, or Caleb Ferguson, or Alex Vesia…With the addition of Kahnle and Ferguson and a resurgence of V-Gon, the LAD bullpen could be the best in MLB without much tinkering. It all depends on what KJ wants.
Jimmy Nelson – I read conflicting reports. Some say Nelson will be ready by Spring Training, while others say he is out for all of next year. Nelson was arguably the best reliever the Dodgers had for much of 2021 where he had a 0.9 WAR in 2021. He signed a $1.25MM contract, thus Nelson earned his $1.25MM. Will Nelson sign another $1.25MM deal? If so, the risk is low. If he cannot pitch next year, there is nothing to consider.
Corey Knebel – I like Knebel, and I hope he can be reasonably re-signed.
Tio Albert – Needs to sign with St. Louis and retire as a Cardinal. He likes LA, but he belongs in St. Louis.
Steven Souza, Jr., Cole Hamels, and Danny Duffy – They will not be re-signed by LAD.
My personal preference order would be:
Corey Seager
Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
Kenley Jansen
Chris Taylor
Corey Knebel
I have no clue what the Dodger budget will be after a CBA is negotiated and signed. Much of what the new CBA states will dictate how high of a salary budget LAD will go. What happens with Trevor Bauer will also dictate what FA can be considered. And yes, I am watching the World Series. I enjoy baseball, and there is no better baseball than the World Series.
In the meantime, take a look at Dustin May with his first day of throwing.
Great write up. Posts like this are LADT at it’s best. Lots of good info!
It was obvious the entire playoffs that the starters were gassed. They all looked tired. The offense was really in the dumps too. The Dodger bench was a black hole most of the season. Pujols was their best pinch hitter, so that should tell you something. After the way things turned out, in hind sight it would have been smarter to rest some players than try and catch the Giants. Especially with the way they were playing and the constant comebacks they had. But it is what it is. I expect Albert and Taylor to move on. Most likely Seager will to, although I wish he would stay. I think they can afford both Kersh and Scherzer, depending on if Max wants to stay. Bauer is the elephant in the room, but now that the Pasadena police have concluded their investigation, maybe we will get some resolution of the situation in the next couple of weeks. I would like to see them make some sort of deal with Jansen. Personally, I am ok with Treinen slipping into that role, but I prefer they have at least 2 guys with closer chops. Hopefully Gonzalez is healthy next year. I also think they might try and get Kelly back at a lower price, but that is nothing more than a guess. I would love to see Knebel return. I also wonder what their plan is for Evan Phillips. The guy had a couple of decent outings at the end. I really hope every player they had on the bench at the end of the season are GONE. McKinney, Reks, Raley, and Souza were worthless. Maybe they can get a new start in another organization. Barnes will be Smith’s backup for at least one more season. I do not see them bringing Duffy back either.
AC , great to hear you’re in tip top shape, but I’m sure 3 days in the hospital made your mood ring dark…
Matt’s post summed it up for me…Great stuff… Keep coming back…
Great to see Dustin warming up…
Good coverage AC. Glad to hear you are doing well.
I would like to continually remind everyone that progress and results are not linear. I hear fans complain about Gonsolin, Raley, Reks, McKinney, Souza, and others. While Souza is now getting a little long in the tooth, he is a guy who has hit 30 HR and played at a high level in the past. He has not been the same since his injury, and maybe he never will be the same, but… Out of that group of players I mentioned, I think at least two will be solid contributors… for someone.
How much did Gonsolin’s injury cause him to have a subpar season? Let me remind you that in 142 IP in the Major Leagues, he has a 2.85 ERA and has allowed just 99 hits while striking out 148. His WHIP is 1.089. Not bad for a guy who is worthless. V-Gon had a lost year, but he is a very good LH relief pitcher in my mind.
James Outman could be the 4th or 5th OF’er next year. He could make Raley and Reks and McKinney excess baggage, but I would not throw all of them out. The Dodgers got very little from Major League Ready Talent last year. It should be different this year with Vargas, Amaya, Busch, Miller, Knack, Pepiot, and maybe Beeter next year, in addition to Outman, White and Jackson. Don’t forget Cleavinger.
I love Gonsolin, but he’s had shoulder problems in two of the last three years now. That concerns me. He also has a propensity to not go deep into games and that’s been a concern since he was drafted.
Recks has always hit at every level and Raley’s shown good pop at every level. Both are worse than I expected with the glove. I don’t see a future for either of these guys.
McKinney is a diamond in the rough. I think he’s going to be fine with all the great praise he received and his production before getting injured. He’s the next Chris Taylor, albeit not as great with the glove, but will probably be a better hitter when it’s all said and done.
Souza looked lost last year. He won’t be back and no one will remember him.
V-Gone is going to be a stud. He was pitching hurt all year and was effective even if he was a bit wild.
Outman has some potential. I don’t see the Dodgers using a rookie as a bench player next year.
I think Vargas is a sure thing. He’s got the bloodlines and he’s finished each minor league season as a 300 hitter. He just finished his age 21 season with a .319/.380/.526/.906 slash overall and an even better .321/.386/.523/.909 slash at Tulsa AA.
I think there’s a chance we see Outman, Vargas and to a lesser extent Busch next season with the big club. But none are likely to make an impact. Sometimes someone pulls a Belli and arrives sooner than expected.
All of those pitchers are very good, great, or elite and wouldn’t count any of them out. All of them have the potential to be a 2 or 3 in the rotation and Miller and Pepiot could be very special.
Every time I see Cleavinger, he reminds me of Tony Cingrani. I think he’s got closer or setup potential.
“McKinney is a diamond in the rough.”
Can I assume you meant McKinstry?
With all do respect to Billy if he happens to read this blog, I think McKinney is more cubic zirconia than diamond.
Yes, I meant McKinstry. I think he’s got a solid bat and good on base skills, but he’ll never be Kike or CT3 defensively.
I have never complained about Gonsolin. I know his shoulder has impeded his progress. And for a while in 2020 he did ok. As for Reks, Raley and the rest, they added nothing when on the MLB roster. Any and all of them are replaceable easily.
I always love your posts AC and I’ll keep you in my prayers in regards to your health.
I couldn’t agree more about Kenley. It sure seems like something clicked. I don’t know if I’ll ever fully trust him again, but the alternatives aren’t attractive. He’s a lifelong Dodger just like Kershaw and deserves at least a little bit of the Kershaw treatment. The Dodgers have to give him at least the opportunity to come back. Although, I wouldn’t have a problem going with Treinen as the closer and Khanle in Treinen’s current role. They sure stacked the bullpen this year and I can’t wait to see more of Evan Phillips. He really came out of nowhere and made a hell of an impression on me.
Nelson is an interesting name for me. An arm injury to shut him down for the rest of the season will no doubt reduce his value significantly. It seems like he’s going to be in the same place he was when he signed his just completed deal. I can’t imagine other teams opening up the checkbook for a guy with so much risk.
The same can be said about Danny Duffy. With only two reliable starting pitchers currently slated to open the season, I could see the Dodgers taking a flyer on him as a depth move. Especially for a guy that’s had a taste of the postseason and grew up a Dodgers fan. Another area where I disagree is with Trevor Bauer. Without a case, there is little reason to think he’ll get a year suspension in addition to the half year he already served. I spilt a lot of ink on this subject and it boils down to one thing for me. Sam Dyson is the only player to ever get one year, I doubt you can jump to a year and a half with the very next player to be suspended. That’s especially the case when the judge for his restraining order ruled in the way she did with the commentary that she didn’t have to write.
Right now the Yankees are in the cat bird seat when it comes to free agent shortstops. Carlos Correa has come right out and said he wants to play in pinstripes. They’ve been limping along with a shortop that was not defensively up to par, so I’m sure defense will be a contributing factor with their decision on who to throw all that money towards. I hate to say it, but with all things being equal Correa is the better shortstop. If I’m the Yankees he’s my choice. I also hate to say this, but the Dodgers should consider the Correa upgrade as well if Seager chooses to bolt.
Internally, I’m most excited to see Eddie Rios return next year. Yes, he’ll be coming back from shoulder surgery just like Belli had to do this year and Kemp before him. The good thing is he’ll have much more time to recover than each of his predecessors did so it shouldn’t take as much time to get his mojo back.
I don’t expect too much help from the minor league system this year unless McKinstry or Nuese take a step forward. I can see a situation where Outman is called up if he starts hot and someone needs an IL stint. I don’t see him as a 4th outfielder. That’s a place where they should absolutely focus some attention this offseason.
Priorities
1 – Starting Pitching
1a – Corey Seager
1b – Kenley Jansen
2 – Bench / Outfield Depth
I can’t believe the AJ Pollock trades are already in the air. Please stop it, please. He was one of our best hitters, one of the best against lefties, he’s up for a Gold Glove and he’s relatively cheap.
Good to hear you’re out of the hospital and have a clean bill of health. As usual, Jeff, excellent analysis and opinions on possible transactions for the Dodgers in the offseason. It should be very interesting for all of baseball and especially for the Dodgers. Continued good health.
Glad to hear you’re doing ok. Take care.
Last week Alanna Rizzo said she didn’t think Seager would sign with the Yankees due to his personality. Washington is an interesting option. Most likely rebuilding but DC is closer to his NC home. Time will tell.
Carter Kieboom is a natural Shortstop. That’s why they traded Trea Turner in the first place. You’re thoughts about their rebuild is more likely correct.
Kieboom is a work in progress hitting wise.
Detroit will be hot and heavy on the trail of a SS
Always enjoy reading your insightful comments Jeff. I am a big fan of your writing skills. Stay healthy my friend.
JEFF– GREAT THAT YOU ARE OK.
So the team struggled against good pitching in the playoffs. But I guess that’s why they are good pitchers. So we probably (along with everyone else) struggled against them all year. If all batters did better against good pitchers, then they would not be good pitchers. So if we had a different strategy for hitting, and Roberts wasn’t such a poor manager how many regular season games would you expect we could have won? I guess 25 more games. So that would be 131!!!!wow!!!
I’m still not convinced the Yankees will go all in on Corey Seager and I actually believe that he wants to stay in LA. He knows the organization and the city. New York seems like a very uptight place for Seager. But if I’m the Dodgers I want him to slide over to third sooner rather than later. That will solve third moving forward. I’d be curious if the Dodgers are looking at a future with Trea Turner at short with Gavin Lux at second and Max Muncy at first. Not a bad infield.
As to the Yankees, other shortstops available.
I’m not sure geography will play any role. Dodgers win consistently and other teams do not.
Good articles this morning in the LA Times on Trevor Bauer, lot of minefields for Rob Manfred and MLB. Whatever happens no doubt Bauer fights it. Unless, of course, they reach an agreement moving forward.
I agree with BP on LA priorities this winter, pretty clear picture moving forward. I also agree on AJ Pollock, not going anywhere. Why would anyone want to trade one of Dodgers most productive hitters?
I agree with Jeff on Cory Knebel, would like to see him back. I’m guessing Chris Taylor moves on and I would certainly prioritize Seager over Taylor. If the Dodgers allow Seager to move on, I’m thinking regret will soon follow. Whatever they do with Taylor, they need to come up with a player to replace his skill set.
I think Kenley wants to be back. If they work out a deal moving forward that would be okay. The changes he made were very effective.
As to Max Scherzer, the Dodgers need his top of rotation skills, but will age dimmish those skills? Lot of upside with a lot of risk. It would be helpful if the Bauer situation is resolved.
No idea how the Dodgers will approach the season financially, but I think they won’t be satisfied until they actually get to host a parade. Since the team is apparently very profitable and LA is hosting the all-star game and continuing to add improvements to the stadium, payroll may not be as big of a concern as some would like to believe.
Hey, they lead baseball in attendance, have a massive TV deal and continue to develop additional revenue sources.
I would probably wait to move Seager off the position until there’s a clear replacement. If they still think they want to keep TT after they sign Seager, at least for next year. If they think that TT is expendable after they sign Seager, there’s no reason to move him over just yet.
Let’s say we get the DH next year. The lineup would look something like this…
Mookie RF R
TT 2B R
Seager SS L
Turner DH R
Muncy 1B L
Smith C R
Belli CF L
Pollock LF R
Rios 3B L
Outfield Defense is great. Muncy and TT should provide plus defense on the right side and Rios will be an improvement over Turner on the left side. Seager, Turner and Lux are all pretty comparable at SS.
If you move Seager to 3B, you lose Rios and / or JT’s bat at 3B and you’ll lose Lux as a utility guy. So at a minimum, I would kick that can down the road for a year. Then, it would be a matter of who’s available on the farm that might make an impact to replace TT and possibly JT.
Perhaps then, either Vargas or Busch will force the Dodgers hand to make a move. But, Vargas is also playing second base and Busch is mostly playing second. Maybe one of them takes over at second, Lux to SS, Seager to 3B. It can just as easily go Vargas to 3B, Lux to 2B and Seager stays at SS for another year until Eddys Leonard can take over at SS.
I don’t think Seager is as bad as the defensive metrics make him out to me. He’s by no means a great defensive shortstop, but he’s steady, usually makes the plays he’s supposed to and sometimes makes some plays that other don’t mostly due to his rocket arm. He has all the tools to be a GG third baseman, but they really need a defensive wiz that can handle the bat in order to displace him. I don’t see that on the current roster.
Assuming the DH is added next year, I don’t think you can go into the season expecting to fill the DH and 3rd base positions on a daily basis with just JT and Rios. For all we know Rios will have a Bellinger-type year after his surgery and JT gets more injury prone as he ages. One more reason for trying to keep CT3.
Vargas may be the ultimate answer but I don’t think he’s going to be ready next year.
And for those who say we should prioritize Seager over Taylor, that’s an apples and oranges comparison as Seager is probably going to cost about 200-250 million more than Taylor.
If we re-sign Seager and tell him he’ll be playing shortstop next year, I would definitely trade Trea. He’s not going to be a happy camper if he’s forced to play second again and would definitely leave after next year. He would bring something good back in a trade and I would deal him rather than have him here and unhappy.
If we don’t sign Corey, slide Trea over to short where he’ll be much happier and, if he has a normal TT year hope to extend him. I don’t see any way we keep them both over the long run, even if Corey moves to 3rd. That’s just way too much money when we have lots of other needs/extensions to worry about.
Sorry STB, but I don’t agree with anything you said here.
Rios and JT sharing DH and 3B looks like a match made in heaven for me. They need a 4th outfielder that can take some of that DH time share in the event one is injured. JT played more innings at 3B this year than just about any other year in his career, so any time at DH should allow him to continue to play the position at an acceptable level. Rios had surgery at the very beginning of the season, instead of at the end. Both Kemp and Belli showed up at the beginning of the following year. No need to think Rios won’t be ready with 5 more months to recover. They will not sign a full time third baseman or a full time DH unless Seager moves on. Then I could see an interest in Kris Bryant because he can play multiple positions.
Vargas will get a look if needed, or possibly when rosters expand in September. He looks the most ready out of anyone they have in the minors. I think I would take the over on 50/50 odds that we see him at some point during the regular season next year.
Apples and Oranges is not an argument here. Seager is an impact player and Taylor is a very good utility guy that strikes out way too much. Seager is a priority, CT3 is not.
You might trade Trea if Seager returns, AF will not. He values depth and Lux hasn’t shown that he will be a full time player next year. He did make a case to take CT3’s spot.
The more I think about CT3, the more I think he’ll be moving on. If I’m AF, I absolutely pin the QO to Taylor and overpay for a year. You’ll know if he wants to stay and be a highly paid utility guy, or if he wants to be a full time player by whether or not he accepts. He can always accept and renegotiate a longer term deal with a lower yearly after accepting the QO.
I disagree with your disagreement.
Rios/JT – if we have CT3, problem solved. Otherwise I want someone else who can play third on a regular, or at least semi regular basis. Not Muncy, not Lux. Rios barely has 170 lifetime at bats over 3 years and has a .207 lifetime average. I would love to see him grab a permanent spot as our third baseman, but I’m sure not going into 2022 assuming that will be the case.
Vargas – I’m willing to concede that we might see him in September but I don’t see him contributing for most of 2022. I hope I’m wrong about that, by the way. I think he’s going to be great going forward.
You say Seager is an impact player, CT3 is not. Therefore, I say comparing apples and oranges (or kumquats and pomegranates if you prefer).
I would have no problem with pinning a QO on Taylor. I would assume he would reject it and then we either get an extra draft pick or it discourages others from signing him. Win-win.
Yes, I would reluctantly trade TT if Seager comes back to play short, but I agree that AF probably wouldn’t. Based on my track record and Andrew’s, we’re probably better off going with his decision.
The LA Times article on Bauer was the most fair and balanced one I have read.
Which article? Can you post the link?
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2021-11-01/what-comes-next-trevor-bauer-dodgers-sexual-assault-case
I think this article is still pretty slanted, just not as slanted as anything else I’ve read.
Well, it is less slanted!
Jeff, great to see that you are okay.
I think it is important to note that San Diego’s new manager Bob Melvin, is very good. That means that there may well be two managers in this division who are better than Roberts, Kapler and Melvin. Others will disagree, of course. I would rather have Kapler or Melvin than Roberts. What it means to me, is that we have to have appreciably better talent than those teams, or they will beat us.
I agree that Seager is our most important free agent. But I don’t expect him to sign with us, someone will offer more, it only takes one team. Boras clients always go for the money.
I want us to sign Scherzer, because I do not see any other good options out there. Lose Scherzer, and we have only two presumably reliable starters, Buehler and Urias. We need four. In line with what I wrote above, we need a better rotation than anyone else, or we will not be better than anyone whose starters are better.
I don’t have much expectation that Kershaw can regain even his early season form of last year, but if he wants to stay, I hope that a deal can be worked out to have him try.
I like Knebel, and very much hope we can keep him, but many speculate that the can get a closer role and salary somewhere else. I would actually prefer that we keep Treinen and Knebel as 8th and 9th inning relievers, rather than sign Jansen for a large sum. There is a risk that he will start pitching like he did the first part of last year, and then we’re stuck. Of course, he could continue his fine pitching of late season, but that is a lot of money to risk. It is strange, and not his fault, that once again we lost a playoff series where he didn’t really play any kind of major part. We won two routs, lost the close games, and the only time he came in wit h a chance to make a difference, he gave up the game-winning hit. Maybe we could find a closer who could pitch more than one inning sometimes? Some actually do. Assuming that we have a budget, I would rather spend the money on Seager, Scherzer and Knebel, than Jansen. But I figure that we will sign Jansen.
If we sign Seager, Taylor is sort of a luxury, but we would like to keep him. I would want us to have a nucleus for the next five years. Lose that nucleus (Turner is probably in his last year; Seager could well leave) and then we are competing with organizations to grab available talent. Our minor league system seems to have few likely hitting stars in it. We need an upgrade in talent, though I know that many think that we are just fine with what we have. The San Diego club is not going to resemble the bumbling team of last year. And San Francisco has a lot of money to spend, and a very good organization. And Atlanta probably has more talent than we do, when Acuna returns. We are not going to win with mirrors, or by outmanaging anyone during games.
I intend to do a longer post at some point, but to me the most obvious thing that the Dodgers need to address right now is the starting rotation. If the season were to start today, the only 2 sure things that they have for the rotation are Buehler and Urias. Gonsolin wasn’t healthy all season and at this point, he has to show that he can stay healthy and go 5+ innings per start, so you can’t say that he’s a sure thing.
The article on May indicated that he has started throwing but won’t likely be ready to start pitching in games for close to 16 months post surgery. He won’t be ready for the start of the season and you don’t know for sure that you’ll get.
The Dodgers’ top pitching prospects (Miller, Knack) aren’t ready yet. Jackson or White might be able to be 5th starters but again aren’t sure things.
Bauer is a giant question mark.
And if no Kershaw or Scherzer, that leaves the cupboard pretty bare.
If I were to guess, I assume that they will work out some kind of incentive-laden deal with Kershaw and will make a good try to bring Scherzer back. That leaves them with 4 starters and assume that one from Jackson, White and Gonsolin will hold down the 5 spot until May is ready.
If Kershaw or Scherzer go down, that doesn’t leave them with much depth. So I suspect that they will add a bargain basement arm or two – someone that used to be good but has been injured or someone that they think has undiscovered upside. And it isn’t a sure thing that Scherzer returns.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see AF sign Noah Syndergaard. He’s 29 years old. Somewhat injury prone but great upside.
I was thinking the same thing last night, but I’m guessing he’d like to stay in NY and Steve Cohen will probably pay him to do so.
Sorry to hear about your recent hospital stay Jeff. Glad you’re back in the saddle and have a clean bill of health. I really enjoy your write-ups–they are measured, fair and free of politics and extraordinary fluff. Hope you can continue to regale us with your expertise. Stay healthy.
Kevin Gausman is available and so is Robbie Ray. What do you gentlemen feel about them? I would be ok with considering Syndergaard.
Gausman is 30. This season was the first time he ever had an ERA below 3. He is usually up above 4. His career record is below .500. And the word is the Giants are very interested in bringing him back. If I wanted any of the Giants free agents, it would be Wood. Better career numbers. Ray would be more intriguing. A year younger and better overall numbers. He is also a power pitcher who strikes out a lot of hitters. Led the AL in K’s this year. Dodger Blue insider suggested Marcus Stroman. Stroman is also 30, but has one less year of wear and tear on his arm as he opted out in 2020. I would consider him before Gausman, but the best choice would probably be Ray. Problem there is that he is going to get a big payday.
Hey Jeff. Happy to hear you’re doing better after your medical situation. I don’t know if you realize how much people here respect your contributions to the site. When you’re up to it, I’d love to see you post more often.
With that in mind, you and I have gone through prospective relievers we would like the team to get through the years. Now that we know the bench needs improving and aren’t sure we’ll have CT3 next year, how about a rundown on some bench guys you see as being worthwhile potential additions.
I agree 100% that the team we call the L.A. Dodgers is more like the L.A. Stoics. Seems like every one of our starting position players has a similar personality. Low key, friendly, hard working, etc. I not only think we need to add a Kike-type personality but we also could use a guy with a Scherzer personality as a position player. Maybe AF has put the team together this way purposely, but I think they could add a couple of outliers without disrupting the clubhouse (in other words, I’m not asking for Puig back). Sometimes when the hitters are lethargic, it pays to have someone who would (at least verbally) kick them in the ass. Someone like a Gibby, v.2.
That is a good idea. I will start to review the rosters and FA lists. I have a couple of players on my hunt list. I was on record saying that I wanted the Dodgers to look into both Eddie Rosario and Adam Duvall at the trade deadline…one or the other. Duvall more because of his RH bat, but Rosario has a tendency to put the bat on the ball. Not many K’s or BB’s. Somehow he generally puts the ball in play. The Dodgers needed that. Last year Duvall led NL in RBI’s with 113 but still had a sub .800 OPS because of his poor OBP. Adam struck out 174 times and walked 35. Not good. A sub .290 OBP is not one to be favored, but for a playoff run, with his power potential, why not? There are bench guys for the season, and bench guys for the deadline. Duvall is a deadline bench guy.
I was never in on Joc or Soler.
I’ll be interested to see what your list of potential in-season bench players looks like.
We need those guys who strike out a lot. It’s what creates those beautiful cool breezes at the stadium.
Jeff – thanks for your post and I hope you get feeling better. You are one of the reasons that I read LADT. No other blog offers information like this!
Life happens again. Our pickin on the porch group suffered another loss when the wife of Wade Knight, our keyboard player’s brother passed away yesterday. She was diagnosed with a very aggressive form of brain cancer on the 22nd of September. She was a wonderful person, very bubbly and full of life and love for her husband and family. She will be missed. RIP Bobbie.
Sorry for your loss Bear. I was at a water convention a few months ago and my COO texted me and asked if I’d seen “my old cronies.” I replied, “ most of them are dead!”
Thank you Mark, I can say the same. Every year one or more of my musician friends passes on. It is life. I accepted that a long time ago. Bobbie was a younger person though and you hate to see that happen. She was in her late 40’s.
Sorry to hear that Bear. Sounds like she had a good life and one that included others. That is always a sign of a life well lived.
Thank you DC, she was always willing to do what she could to help out. I have even seen her help load up the band after we were done. She had a wonderful personality and a great sense of humor.
I very sad for you Bear.
Thank you BP….seems my circle of friends is shrinking….
Cleveland took Indians logo down from their scoreboard and name on the outside of the stadium as they start rebranding the franchise. Still have to clear up the suit with the roller derby team that claims they stole their nickname.
Mike Trout is supposedly pushing for the Angels to sign Scherzer. Moreno is not that smart, and the Angels are a long way from being a competitive team. Doubt Max wants to go there.
I disagree Bear. I think they’re very close to being competitive if Moreno will just spend the money to sign a couple of the top free agent starters (Scherzer, Ray, Stroman, Thor, Verlander) and beef up the bullpen a little.
Their offense last year operated without Trout and Rendon for most of the year. You add those two back and get some pitching and you become very competitive.
That is your right, but everything I have seen is that this team is NOT CLOSE to competing with the A’s or the Astro’s. I think the Mariners are closer to competing than they are. True, they missed Rendon and Trout, but anymore than we missed the real Bellinger, Seager, and many others for long stretches of time? It is okay for the Angels to use that as an excuse? The Dodgers lost a lot of firepower during the stretch where they went 5-15. Ultimately, that stretch cost them in the long run.
I agree that the Mariners should be very competitive next year, especially with DiPoto already announcing he plans to be active in the free agent market. They’ll be very interesting to watch.
The Astros will almost certainly lose Correa which will be a big blow but they always seem to find a way to be in the middle of things.
The A’s look like they’re ready to go into a rebuild. I think that’s one reason they let Melvin go to the Padres.
We won 106 games last season, the Angels won 77, so yes, they missed Trout/Rendon more than we missed Belli/Seager.
I still maintain that if the Angels fix their starting pitching, they’ll be competing with Seattle and Houston for a playoff spot. Forget the A’s and Rangers for 2022.
I disagree simply because Angel pitching sucks big time. It sucked last year and it sucks now. They have some young untested arms, and a coaching staff that has no clue how to develop those arms.
I am not sure how far away they are. A team with Trout, Rendon, Fletcher, Ohtani, and Walsh is a good offensive start. Jo Adell could flip the switch any day. He is supposedly a can’t miss OF. Max Stassi is back for another year behind the dish, and if they re-sign former Cal St. Fullerton catcher Kurt Suzuki, they have a good catcher corps. They need a SS, but there will be plenty to choose from. They have three top ten SS prospects that may be used to get an established SS (does not need to be elite with their offensive talent). Maybe re-sign Andrelton Simmons for his glove.
Their pitching is young but supposedly very talented.
Ohtani (26)
Jose Suarez (23 LHP)
Patrick Sandoval (24 LHP)
Griffin Canning (25)
Reid Detmers (21)
Jaime Barria (24)
Sam Bachman (22- MiLB AA)
What they could use is a top of the rotation starter like Max Scherzer to push everyone else down one slot. Maybe they can also get a #3 guy ( Gausman, DeSclafani, Zach Davies, Steven Matz). They could use relievers, but can’t most teams? One year the bullpen sucks, the next year it is unhittable. Thus the story line of a reliever in MLB.
The big problem with the Angels is that Moreno cannot get out of his own way. Just shut up and let your baseball operations people do their jobs. That is why he hired them, right?
Great article, AC!
Love your writing, and great to hear that you are healthy!
From readings like this, an excellent analysis of the team, is that LADT is the best and unique blog in baseball, not only of the Dodgers, of all of baseball, even better than those of journalists or professional news media. All those who write here, I will not give the names because I could omit some, they make LADT like a great gourmet meal, each one contributes an ingredient and in the end the result is the best dish on the menu, if this site is closed it will be a great loss for all; that is, LADT, a daily reading every day and that one day that is gone will hurt and we will miss it, it will be hard.
Angels have had crappy pitching for years.
Team ERA 2021 – 4.69
2020 – 5.09
2019 – 5.12
2018 – 4.15
2017 – 4.20 (2017 was the last time that the Angels’ team ERA was below average).
They seem to bring up prospects who get hurt every year. You have to wonder what they are doing in their system that results in so many injuries.
Glad you’re feeling better AC!
Sorry about my Phillip Glass post yesterday was meant for a different community
No worries. I was thinking of George. George Glass.
I assumed you were asking if the Dodgers should trade Dieter Ruehle for Phillip Glass.
Joc Pederson two championships in a row. N o bad
Braves piling on the Astroholes tonight. 7-0 in the 7th inning. Official offseason will begin tomorrow.
Joc Pederson two championships in a row, No bad
Every time we lost, the team that beat us won the world series. Hats off the the Braves. Congratulations Joc. I happy for the city of Atlanta after getting screwed by Manfred. I’ll take a Championship over an All-Star game any day of the week.
Game six had quite the moment, in case you missed it:
Max Fried pitching to Alex Bregman who flies out to Joc Pederson in the World Series… a gigantic moment in Jewish history