Since 2009, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been Clayton Kershaw’s team. Excluding his rookie year of 2008, Clayton has NEVER had an ERA over 3.00 but once (3.03). His career ERA is 2.47. Until Monday, he had not pitched since early July this year due to injury, but this year his ERA is 3.33. Those are pretty good stats, maybe even worthy of being a #2 starter on most teams. However, the 2021 Dodgers are not just any team.
Max Scherzer has a career ERA of 3.15, and while 3 years older than Clayton, is now the Dodgers’ ace. Actually, earlier in the season, Striker Buehler had surpassed Clayton as the Dodger’s ace, and recently, Julio Urias has moved ahead of Clayton on the Dodgers’ Ace Meter. If Trevor Buer were still pitching, Clayton would be the Dodgers #5 Starter.
On Opening Day, Clayton was the starter. That role is traditionally reserved for the “Ace” of the staff, although it could be argued that Striker Buehler and Trever Bauer (reigning Cy Young winner) should be ranked ahead of Clayton. The fact that Clayton and not Buehler or Bauer did not start should not be lost on us. Clayton still is a very good pitcher and his career ERA of 2.47 ranks him #1 in ERA for the modern ERA. The only one close is Jacob deGrom, but his prospects moving forward are not rosey.
What is not said by anyone close to the Dodgers is that Clayton Kershaw may need Tommy John Surgery. As I write this, I do not KNOW that, but there is certainly a lot of evidence that points to that:
- Clayton missed two months with what the Dodgers said was “forearm tightness.” Forearm tightness is a presurser or an indication that one needs Tommy John.
- During that time, Clayton and others also called it “elbow issues.”
- Clayton has a boatload of innings on that left arm.
- Clayton’s velocity is certainly down.
That evidence would not meet the threshold of “reasonable doubt” but in a civil court, I think it could sway you with a “preponderance of the evidence.” I think Clayton has a torn UCL and has nothing lose by pitching. I think he is trying to help win a second championship in any role needed. I think this is Clayton’s last season. It could end at any time if that UCL lets loose, but he is here for the present.
Clayton has three young children at home and a platform and the money to successfully run his charities. I think that right after the Dodgers win the World Series, Clayton will announce his retirement. He will retire as a Dodger. AJ Ellis recently said that “Clayton is a one-team pitcher.” Why not end that tenure as the Modern-Day ERA Leader?
As I said, I do not know any of this for sure, but this is what the evidence says. I am watching every start as if it is his last… it might be!
The Trevor Bauer Debacle
Count me in the camp that conventional wisdom is usually wrong and many (if not “most” or even “all”) national writers and bloggers do not know their rear-end from their face (Maybe there is s resemblance). Now, if the DA charges Bauer, that changes everything, but every day that passes makes it less likely that will happen. If Bauer is not charged, MLB has a huge problem. Many writers say that “Bauer has admitted….” I do not think they have a clue what the threshold for “evidence” might be.
If Trevor Bauer is not charged, I know that MLB can still suspend him, but this case is entirely different. Does MLB really want to get involved with what happens behind closed doors by consenting adults? Insofar as the facial damage to the woman accusing Bauer of beating her, she has accused him, but he has not admitted that he was the cause of those bruises. I am not arguing as to his guilt or innocence. I am saying that absent proof he beat the woman (not just an accusation) then there is no case. If the DA doesn’t charge him, Manfred will have a decision to make and it is clear to me that his decision-making ability is less than that of a chimp!
PHOTO CREDIT: LA DODGERS
CK has certainly not been ” The Man” for a few years. At least last season he was able to exorcise his post season demons by posting a 4-1 record in the playoffs. Including 2 wins in the World Series. His last ERA title was in 2017. His record over the last 4 years is a pretty decent 40-14. But those are not the numbers of an Ace. Pretty interesting story in MLBTR this morning about Chris Taylor and how he could command a 5 year 80 million dollar deal. They compare him to Ben Zobrist. But Zobrist was 35 when he signed that 56 million dollar deal with the Cubs, Chris is 31 right now. Zobrist also was not as versatile as Taylor. It was great to pick up a game on the Giants finally. I watched the end of their game, and I will say this, there is no give up on that team. They fought right up until the last out. They hit 4 solo homers and still lost by 3. Pagan’s outing was both hard to watch and impressive. He walked the first two hitters and then got the next 3. He also threw more balls than strikes. Congrats to Julio on his 18th win, Not a great pitched game, but good enough. HR bug has bit Bickford. Lets hope he finds his sea legs again before the playoffs. Going to meet up with Ted for lunch today. He is visiting a friend in our little corner of the world.
True, so true Mark. You barrelled this one. Short, but sweet like a liner off Will Smith’s bat. Clayton is one of our all time greats. I would hate to see him retire at such a young age especially when we’re seeing Mad Max do his thing at 37 years young. Clayton has been compared to the great Sandy Koufax his entire career, I guess it’s only fitting that he hang ’em up a little early.
The Bauer situation feels a hell of a lot more like political theater, than justice. More like a cross between the “Me too” movement and Manfred’s personal grudge payback from constantly calling him out on his stupid decisions. People are so blinded by politics these days they don’t care for right and wrong or justice. The sportswriters all jumped the gun and declared man guilty, women victim without considering the facts. I’ll always remember my wife calling this situation extortion as soon as the news broke. She’s often right about this sort of thing.
The Padres won a game! There’s hope as we pull within one and a half. Can the Padres make it two in a row?
Urias was good enough last night. Good enough to get the W. Good enough to keep his ERA below 3. Bickford is getting bit by the home run bug lately and Vesia is a freaking stud! Kelly got his guy, and Treinen was wild, but dirty. Kenley made a statement by striking out the bottom of the order in order. To say the pitching on this team is great is an understatement.
The bats did enough to get the job done. 5 runs just about guarantees a victory with this team. I freaked out a little bit when JT he that humpback liner off the end of the bat! Don’t break Tio’s magic bat!!! I think they hide that stick from Belli so he doesn’t cancel out the good in it.
Trea Turner is freaking fast! That RBI infield hit was fun to watch. I still don’t understand why he and Mookie don’t bat back to back. They’re way too stuck on the lefty righty thing.
I love seeing Gavin Lux do his thing. Just stick to that line drive swing and take what they give you! Belli is still chipping in with a hit here, a walk there and great defense everywhere in the outfield. The team is really coming together at the right time. Who said they can’t just flip the switch?
Best of all, the D has been solid. It’s really hard to beat this team when they don’t give anything away.
It was a perfect time to sweep a perfect home stand against two division rivals. Now, we go back out on the road for three series with bookend off days and another after the Reds series. C’mon Padres. You help us and we’ll help you by smashing the Reds!
Whoever made the schedule this year needs to be fired. How the hell do the Padres and Giants play more than half of their games against each other over the last 20 games of the season? And how the hell to the Dodgers play out of division on the last series of the year? I hope that doesn’t happen again for a long time.
In case nobody noticed or cares, there’s a three way tie for the American League Wild Card(s). The Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox all knotted up 8 games behind the division leading Rays. The National League has three teams within a game and half of the second Wild Card. What a wild finish to a wild season!
Lost in all the excitement was Julio Urias starting and winning on a night where we honored another great Mexican Left Hander, Fernando Valenzuela. As there are a lot of similarities between another pair of lefties in Kershaw and Koufax, Urias and Valenzuela should be linked together in the same manner. Urias and Valenzuela share the same cool demeanor on the hill and both had great breaking balls. They both handled the bat and fielded their positions extremely well for a pitcher. Both started their careers in Dodger Blue as teenagers at the ripe old age of 19 years.
Congratulation Julio on becoming the first 18 game winner on a special night dedicated to another Dodger great and fellow countryman.
On another note, how about the great catch Henry Ramos made on Mookie’s drive to left? I thought a few years ago when he was in spring with the Dodgers, that they should have kept him on the roster. He popped a couple of long homers in spring and looked very good in the outfield. But that was 2017, Bellinger’s rookie season. Gausman pitching for the Giants today against Pierce Johnson. Padres own 2 HR’s against Gausman this year, Marisnick and Tatis. Giants have none against Johnson. Giants stay home to play the Braves. Then they go on the road to San Diego and Colorado, before 3 with the D-Backs and finishing with SD. Dodgers weekend series with the Reds features, Buehler-Castillo, Scherzer-Gray, Kershaw-Miley.
Yes.amazing catch by Ramos on Mookie. One of the best catches all year. I feared it could change the game right there. Good thing the Dodgers held on for the W.
Lets go Padres today. Gausman still has a very good era of 2.65 but he has been vulnerable for a few weeks now. Hopefully the Friars can beat them again.
Tough series coming up for the Dodgers in Cincy. They are fighting for their playoff lifes just like the Padres.
Good to see Lux keep hitting and reaching base. Nice shot in the arm from left field.
Keep it up, kid!
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!
Padres are using an opener. So it will be on him and their pen to keep SF at bay.
Muncy has a bruised knee from his ill conceived steal attempt of 2nd base. He will be back in the lineup on Friday. When those idiots ran out on the field last night, they were protesting the relocation of the people who lived in the Chavez Ravine area before Dodger Stadium was built. Little late in the game to voice that objection. And that was on the City of Los Angeles, and Mayor Poulson. Not the Dodgers. LA ceded the land to them. Lots of protest on Twitter today about the way security took them down. Also some video’s there since the Dodger broadcasts refuse to give those people air time. Rengifo in trouble in his native Venezuela. A warrant for his arrest has been issued. Allegedly he and his family forged papers to sell a property that was jointly owned by him and his exe wife. A violation of Venezuelan law. His father has already been arrested. He is the lawyer who forged the documents….
The lack of sliding skill at this level is remarkable. I’ve seen better slides in beer league softball games. In fact, if anybody on my softball teams ever slid as badly as we’ve seen the Dodgers slide they would have been laughed off the bench and made to buy the first pitcher after the game. Show some professional pride people, learn how to slide. Hey, a slogan. “Show some pride, learn to slide.” Pass it around. Maybe it will get to Doc. We know the guys on Dodger Talk read here. Yeah, sure they do.
Couldn’t agree more on guys not knowing how to slide. It’s a lost art since head first sliders became standard. We used to slide feet first on either hip to keep your face from being exposed to the throw either from the outfield or infield. I don’t see Muncy’s steal attempt “ill conceived” at all. He slide too late and crashed into the base. He actually had it stolen until the stupid replay ruled he was off the bag. I hate the use of replay to see if any body part separated from the base in super slo-mo. That was never the intent of replay.
If Bauer is not charged, Manfred has another huge can of worms on his plate. Ozuna, who had a situation close to Bauer’s, but for domestic violence, has not been charged, but had to enter a program for that kind of behavior. Still remains to be seen how that will all play out.
This doesn’t track for me.
If Bauer isn’t suspended, then the following hypothetical is probably going to happen:
1. Dodgers cut Bauer (still pay him his guaranteed $, but he’s a Free Agent.)
2. Then every owner has to deal potentially with a fanbase that will in part call for the team to sign him. Then every GM will have to answer questions about signing him. Then every baseball player could be asked if they want Bauer as a team-mate. NOBODY wants that.
The only contrary is Bauer is upset. And only BAUER doesn’t want that. The MLB Players Union will fight for Bauer, but they’re not going to wage a PR campaign about representing Bauer. It’ll just be a courtroom case.
If Bauer isn’t suspended and the Dodgers don’t cut him and the Dodgers play him.
1. Well, this will never happen, but….
2. Guggenheim will lose their shit.
3. Friedman will lose his shit.
4. The fans and media will lose their shit.
If Bauer isn’t suspended, and the Dodgers don’t cut him and don’t play him
1. Well, this won’t happen either.
So, either Bauer is suspended or everyone who Mandfred reports to or represents will be in a bad situation. Hard to see why it’s a hard decision for him.
You live in fantasy land with all your assumptions. I’m a fan, and I won’t lose my shit if they keep him, play him and pay him. For every you, there’s a me.
That’s exactly my point. If even 50% of fans lose their shit….
If even 25%……
And as for living in Fantasy Land…
I do live in the city of angels.
Bluto,
I know you are not speaking for me when you say “the fans will lose their shit” because I am a fan and I definitely won’t lose my shit because he has not been convicted of anything.
My gosh people….aren’t you innocent until PROVEN guilty? If no one is taking him to court, then that means he is not a criminal and I don’t care what some Padres gold digger says…..although she did say, “bring me all the pain you have.”
And for the record, MLB investigation is not the law. They have no authority to convict in criminal court.
Lastly, what Trevor does in his house behind closed doors is none of yours and my business. If he has broken a law, charge him and take him to court. Don’t convict him only in the media. Rise above this kind of mentality.
TM
I have no interest in seeing him convicted in court.
I have no problem with him being convicted in the media.
Neither, however, are important to this discussion. Which is about whether or not he’ll be suspended, or (on another level) whether he’ll play for the Dodgers again.
I don’t give a hoot what the guy gets his rocks off with. Nor what he does behind closed doors. That’s irrelevant. As is your reference to a “gold digger.”
None of that matters.
90% chance he’s suspended for next season. The percentage will probably wax and wane with more reporting but I doubt it’ll change a great deal.
The only time those words have any real meaning is from jury selection to verdict. Courts behave much different before and after. But at least those words ring true for time though members of the jury might have already made their minds. But the courts try follow rules to the letter. How that stands is pretty remarkable, outside of Charles Manson anyways. I don’t like Manson in any part of the way but they broke their own rules convicting him.
The Ozuna case is different. Ozuna was seen by the police to have attacked his wife (May 29) after responding to a 911 call. He was then charged with aggravated assault, strangulation – which is a felony. In July, the Fulton County DA decided to drop the felony charges to battery and simple assault, both misdemeanors.
Now the Fulton County DA has indicated that those charges will be dropped if Ozuna meets certain conditions within six months. Ozuna was placed on six months’ supervision and must undergo a 24-week family violence intervention program, which includes an anger management course and a psychological assessment component. He also must complete 200 hours of community service, refrain from illegal drug use and avoid any contact with his wife. The six-month supervision would be terminated after three months if Ozuna completes all of the requirements early.
Ozuna has entered into a Court dictated settlement (for lack of better legal term) but Ozuna has obviously agreed that there was domestic violence. This was not a MLB condition, but a DA. MLB is still free to suspend Ozuna without pay because of the CBA domestic violence clause.
With Bauer, the DA has not concluded that a crime was committed, even a misdemeanor. Bauer has not agreed that he committed a crime, just consensual rough sex. If the DA chooses not to charge Bauer, then what MLB (Manfred) will do, is to decide if Bauer’s preferred sexual proclivities should warrant a suspension in MLB. I do not think MLB wants to go down that road. If the DA decides not to press charges, that does not mean that Bauer is innocent, but it could mean that the DA does not think they can get a conviction. Regardless, Bauer will not be asked by the Court to enter into any conditional release. At that point, because MLB waited, they will have to decide to suspend without pay, and that suspension would be construed as a challenge to Bauer’s sexual preferences. If MLB wants a fight with MLBPA, they will get one. MLBPA may not agree with Bauer’s choices, but they will defend him as his sexual preferences would not have been considered criminal. MLB does not get to decide if it is moral. That is for the public and for his next employer. I am assuming that his current employer can also make that decision, except if they release him, it will cost LAD whatever his contract calls for. They may very well be willing to do that.
Maybe one of our attorneys can respond. How long between the completion of a police investigation does the DA typically take to issue a warrant or move on from the incident?
No matter which direction Manfred chooses to go, he is going to piss off someone. Either fans, MLBPA or women in general. It is not going to be an easy decision for him. For LA< I have a feeling they are going to listen to the fans one way or another.
I don’t think that’s just LA, Bear. I think it’s MLB and every major league club.
You can think all you want, but the fact of the matter is Ozuna the reliever and many others are still playing and being paid. The big difference is none of their significant others asked for the tough love.
We’ll see!
I think Bauer could end up being paid. Even for this year but
As stated previously from my POV there’s 100% chance he doesn’t play this season.
And there’s, oh, um, (today I think) 90% he doesn’t play next season.
Just me and my % of certainty.
He is already ruled out for this year. His administrative leave is extended through the WS. So good for your 100% prediction.
The two choices for your 90% of not playing next year to be true: 1-Suspended by MLB and 2-Released by LAD. I do not see how #1 happens if there are no charges, if #2 happens there is better than a 50-50 shot that some team (Houston) picks him up with the Dodgers paying him.
Houston already traded for woman beater Roberto Osuna (not to be confused with Ozuna). They are unscrupulous cheaters that are going to need starting pitching. If Bauer is not suspended, he will hook up with some team. BTW, I do not think he will pitch for LAD again, but I could be wrong.
Thanks Jeff.
I meant to reference that since the ruling about the Temporary Restraining Order, I had been thinking there was no chance he would pitch this season. Obviously, it’s a sailed ship at this point. Thanks for pointing out how that was poorly put.
Totally agree with everything you say in the middle graf, except (of course) where we disagree. But we disagree with a smile on my face.
Does anybody know what’s holding up the Pasadena PD deciding whether to file charges or not? What could they possibly still hope to discover? I know the “wheels of justice” turn slowly but this is ridiculous.
I agree, which is why I asked above for help from an attorney to opine as to whether this delay between the end of investigation and what the DA ultimately decides is “normal”.
Reds aren’t playing particularly well. Lost 4, 3-7. San Diego, as bad as they’ve looked, are still in the playoff picture. At the moment, St Louis is the team that looks like they want it.
As it stands the second Wild Card team is 17 games behind and a strike three called on a pitch 4” outside could move them into the Divisional Series. Yes, it is what it is. But it’s also not right. We will hear a lot more about this going forward.
CK22 is certainly not the same as before but it is very good, you just have to put it in the right place, as No.4 facing guys with 4.00 ERA or more, it would be almost a game won every time he pitched. I think the Dodgers should sign him to one-year contracts from now until Clayton wants to play, respect.
* So we’re 1.5 back. I still think we’ll win the Division. Our pitching has carried up and now the line up is missing only AJ and Lux is filling in nicely. Who wants to face our line up?
* How fundamentally bad are the D-Backs? I typically don’t criticize MLB teams much. But the D-Backs are an exception for me after watching them fail to execute basic stuff all series. You don’t have to be that talented to play the game the right way.
* I was wondering how Ramos stayed in the minors for 11 years. Who does that? He had a nice RBI base hit in the 4th and made a great catch in left. Then I watched him throw 15 feet wide of 3rd on Will’s base hit to try to get JT, allowed Will to go to 2nd. Now it makes more sense.
* Then there was Merrill Kelly’s 3 attempted bunts in the 5th. Do the D-Backs actually coach pitchers, like Kelly, how to bunt? What a pitiful effort. That effort in a 1 run game. If you wrote a book on how not to execute the fundamentals of bunting, he would be the example. Brutal.
* Bellinger’s swing looks better. He doesn’t do it every time yet, but you can see a concerted effort to keep his posture and not collapse his head, eyes and spine. We used to call that “staying stacked”. Even if you stand tall, like Belli, you don’t collapse the head and spine angle. You keep your posture and stay balanced. Your hands take the bat to the pitch, low or high. The long, upper-cut swing is hopefully gone with a shorter path to the baseball. Remember the tree chopping video some time back? I like it and i should produce better contact.
* The Home Plate Umpire, Erich Bacchus, did a nice job. He uses more of the old American League style, setting up over the catchers head versus Alan Porter, who sets up with the standard inside position. I would think setting up over the catcher’s head gives a better view of both corners. But that spot directly over the catcher’s head supposedly creates more hits by foul balls.
* It was interesting the other night when Orel was talking about Max using Albert’s bat. He mentioned that Alberts wood was going to be the best and not available to just every player. Max typically uses a birch MaxBat that are beautiful in my opinion. A piece of furniture. But Albert’s Marucci Pro Maple has to be perfect in specs and the best maple they can find. You’re not shipping any crap to a HOF’er.
* I knew TT was fast but damn. I timed TT to 1st base last night just for the hell of it, 3 times actually, as I didn’t believe my watch. It was 3.61 from the right side. I know his swing on the pitch helped him out of the box, but 3.6? That’s unbelievable
A welcome day off before the home stretch today.
Rooting for an opponent to lose is like hoping a spelling bee competitor will misspell a word. You just need to keep plugging along and eventually if it’s meant to be it will happen.
Even though it was one game, last night’s gain feels important, as now SF is only a two-game slip-up away from losing hold on a division they probably feel like is there’s for the taking.
The significance of winning the division is everything right now. I’d be managing this team like second place doesn’t even get you in. Of course guys need rest; that’s not the point. But we have to treat this last two weeks as if they are our playoffs.
It’s a two-step process: just keep winning and wait for the other guy to flinch.
News from Internet
Spoiler:
Love this from Goldstein:
Appa Yip Yip: If you took the Dodgers team as currently constituted and dropped them into the 1970s how many games would they win in a season?
Kevin Goldstein: 130?
Baseball America previews the next International Signing period. ($$$) https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2021-22-mlb-international-prospects-big-board/
Dodgers are not associated yet with anyone, but it’s good to get a grasp on names and trends.
Blast from the past, via Future Dodgers:
Yadier Alvarez, who was DFA’d in February 2020 and pitched just 3.2 innings in 2019, began a rehab assignment tonight in Arizona. He struck out the side in a 1-2-3 first inning.
FB at 97, according to someone.
Also in Arizona is Jhan Zambrano, acquired from the Rangers for Josh Sborz, he’s working out starting for ACL Dodgers tonight.
Baseball America’s Emily Waldron recently noted:
Gavin Stone just hit 98 MPH for @greatlakesloons. First time he’s touched that high since arriving in High-A. Across his past 4 starts for Great Lakes:
17.0 IP, 10 hits, 5 walks, 29 Ks, 1.59 ERA
Since July 26:
28.2 IP, 18 H, 5 R (3 ER), 20 K, 9 BB
BEN CLEMENS CHAT
Joe: What are the Giants’ odds against the Dodgers in the NLDS of the Giants win the west? 55% favored?
Ben Clemens: Sadly not. The Dodgers will be favored… And I don’ think it matters who wins the West (contingent on whichever team it is winning the WC game)
Like, the starting pitching matters a LITTLE
But the Dodgers are a much better team by the projections, and I think that’s reasonable
Appa Yip Yip: Which wild card contenders do you think would make the deepest post-season run AL/NL?
Ben Clemens: Dodgers
Matt Zach: Which upcoming SS FA are the yankees most likely to go out and get? what skills would they prioritize?
Ben Clemens: Carlos Correa
I think they will prioritize the skills of being either Carlos Correa or Corey Seager
But I think Seager is gonna stay in LA most likely and I also like Correa’s profile a bit better
Farhandrew Zaidman: Glasnow to the Dodgers for some package of McKinstry/Andre Jackson in the off-season, who says no? Dodgers will cover the arb cost and Rays get two major league ready players.
Ben Clemens: I think the Rays say no here. They don’t need more 25-year-old marginal major leaguers who will clog up their 40-man
Sorry, McKinstry is 26
It’s just the wrong kind of thing for Tampa Bay to be trading for, and obviously the Dodgers would snap accept if that was offered
Dodgers get a mention in this FanGraphs article on International scouting:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-international-scouting/
Several Dodger prospects are named in this annual survey of minor leaguers with the best tools ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2021-minor-league-prospects-with-the-best-scouting-tools/
I won’t list all, but an appetizing portion includes:
Best batting prospect for ALL of High-A Central: Ryan Ward, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
Best breaking ball for ALL of Low-A West: Carlos Duran, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers)
Best defensive OF for ALL of Double-A Central: Donovan Casey, Tulsa (Dodgers)
Most exciting player for High-A Central: Andy Pages, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
In all fourteen (14) Dodger prospects were cited.
Since being promoted to Rancho Cucamonga, 18-year-old Yeiner Fernandez is hitting .625 with 3 RBIs. He put on a hitting display in the ACL and you can check out his talent at the plate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6k78hItvQA&feature=emb_logo
KEVIN GOLDSTEIN CHAT
Erik: Gabe Kapler thriving in San Francisco immediately after bombing in Philadelphia continues to confuse me. Did he suddenly become a far better manager, or was he always a great manager and the support system is so bad in Philly that he still failed?
Kevin Goldstein: Not really. SO many managers looked bad in their first go-around and used the lessons learned to become really good managers. See Joe Torre with the Mets or AJ Hinch with Arizona.
Jefferson: It’s going to be a shame that one of LAD/SFG has to deal with a single elimination wild card game. If you are running those teams, are you pushing 110% for the division until the very last day? Or maybe hedge your bets a bit and lineup a well-rested starter for a WC game?
Kevin Goldstein: Division all the way. Compared to winning the division, earning a wild card spot basically cuts your World Series probability in half.
DJ: Are there any specific organizations you look at currently and think they are likely onto something ahead of the rest of the industry?
Kevin Goldstein: Plenty. Giants, Dodgers, Rays, Yankees, Brewers come to mind, but there are more.
Guest: please rank: ET, Close Encounters, Captain Marvel, Alien, Contact, Gremlins 2
Kevin Goldstein: Close Encounters and Gremlins 2 the real standouts here. ET is not good, Contact is ok, I haven’t seen Captain Marvel or any comic book movie.
Tal: What do you see the Dodgers doing with Cody Bellinger this offseason? Do they still feel like it’s reasonable to view him as a core piece (or a significant piece at all) going forward?
Kevin Goldstein: Such a tough question for them. He just can’t get to velocity at all. I think you start him in 2022 but have a short leash and a solid backup plan.
Appa Yip Yip: If you took the Dodgers team as currently constituted and dropped them into the 1970s how many games would they win in a season?
Kevin Goldstein: 130?
Nate: I know indicated you think Correa is the best fit for the Yanks, and it’s hard to argue just because he’d be a great fit anywhere. But wouldn’t Seager arguably be more desirable just as a similarly talented LH bat though? Or given Hal’s inclination to hover around the luxury tax (Cole signing aside), wouldn’t it make sense to try for a guy more like Simmons/Didi (or similar) and splurge on more pitching? Not a wrong answer I guess, just a random thought I’ve had
Kevin Goldstein: You’re not wrong, I just think Seager stays in LA in the end.
Tom: KG – You don’t think Bauer will EVER pitch again?
Kevin Goldstein: I don’t THINK so. I think it’s the most likely outcome, but not an absolute one.
Baseball America updated their top 100 again. ($$$)
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2021-top-100-prospects/
The Dodgers now that 6 players (that’s 6%!) With Andy Pages adding his name to the 5 that were there last update.
The early returns on two 2021 draft picks are quite good.
On the season at Low-A
Nastrini: 21 Ks in 9.1 IP
Sheehan: 27 Ks in 13 IP
Both recently threw 3+ scoreless innings with 6+ strikeouts for Rancho.
The proposed trade with Tampa is interesting. As I mentioned previously, I’d add Bauer to the trade for Glasgow.
Well, that’s quite a leap, Mark. Who knows? Maybe you’re right and it’s a UCL. Then again. Not like we haven’t seen tightness and elbow issues before and they don’t always lead to surgeries. It was reported just recently that Clayton Kershaw still feels the competitive fire and wants to continue playing.
Most of the speculation I’ve read about Trevor Bauer indicates he will not play for the Dodgers again and there seems little doubt that he will receive a lengthy suspension. If I’m the Dodgers, I don’t want him back. Been reports the other players don’t want him back. You’re trying to win a second World Series and this guy is out doing something that is pretty edgy, somewhat crazy and off the wall. Hey, what could go wrong?
The police have finished their investigation. It’s in the DA’s office. Up to them to decide whether to press charges or not.
With regards to Bauer, I have seen a lot of speculation that Trevor Bauer will get a long suspension as you believe. There are no charges as of yet, so in your opinion what will be the basis for MLB suspending him? I am not asking whether LAD should release him, but why will MLB suspend him? Because of rough sex? Because as of right now, that is all he is guilty of. He will not play for LAD this year. That has already been determined. So he will not be a distraction.
I am not speculating that you and others are wrong. I just want to know what you think MLB’s basis for a suspension will be.
BTW, I do not think he will ever pitch for the Dodgers again, and I have no problem with that.
He doesn’t have to be guilty of anything in the court of law. In a literal sense, guilt is irrelevant. (What I mean is nobody cares, now that we’ve reached this point) if he’s guilty or not.
Mickey Callaway was suspended for more than a year for what? Lewd behavior? Salacious texts?
That pales in comparison to what we’re talking about with Bauer.
anyway, I’m off for Temple. Maybe I’ll atone for Bauer too! He was fun to watch pitch.
If Bauer ends up suspended it would likely be due to a violation of the league’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.
As we know, Trevor Bauer is under investigation for assault. MLB does not need a guilty verdict from the court to impose a suspension. I am only speculating, but I can see the commissioner’s office using the performance of violent acts without her consent and/or while she was unconscious as the basis of the suspension; hence, sexual assault.
Number one is precedent, Jeff. Sam Dyson got a 162 games without being charged. But I think MLB is very sensitive to violence against women issues and they want to send a strong message. Over the past few years there have been numerous issues regarding the treatment of female writers for example. Several female writers complained about Bauer’s treatment of women on social media before and after he signed.
Trevor Bauer is a high profile player, the Cy Young winner, and I’m guessing MLB wants to send a strong message. Most writers, based on sources, think Bauer will be suspended for one, even two years. Jeff Passan explored this in depth. Others have reached similar conclusions, including LA Times writers.
As to the DA’s office, I’m guessing there is an internal debate, some arguing that they need to prosecute. Others reminding all involved that high profile prosecutions often end up going off the rails. Some history favoring that argument.
Padres ahead in the secound inning 1-0.
Now 2-0 middle of 3rd Tatis homered
Same score end of 4. GO FRIARS! …… ugh, just threw up in my mouth 🙂
Rooting for those guys goes against every instinct you might have. But they are in the 9th inning now. 3 outs to go for the Dodgers to be one game back of the hated ones with 15 to play. Cincy is a hitters park. So it would be nice to see the offense go bonkers for a few games. Castellanos BA down to .310. Now 7 points behind Trea Turner for the batting title.
Padres up 4-0 in the 5th.
Met Ted for lunch at Mugs a small coffee shop here in Canon. We had a great visit and talked about a lot of things. Gave him a Kershaw and a AJ Ellis bobbleheads.
Bauer is judged, for the people, as if he were a normal guy and that is a mistake, anyone who feels pleasure, fun or excitement for a sexual behavior of that type, even if it is consensual, is not right of their mental faculties, this also includes women We know that if she has them, it seems that she is a member of Alcoholic Anonymous.
Then as everyone speculates I will too:
1 the Dodgers as a class organization will try to help Bauer with some therapy or psychological treatment, they will not leave him alone, he won’t give it up, the guy is sick and the Dodgers will support him.
2 they will try to cancel the contract and let Bauer look for other opportunities
That is you projecting on your take on right and wrong, moral and immoral. Not your job. Although you are certainly also allowed your opinion. And me? I truly do not see the draw some have to this kind of behavior. But my wife did some research when this all started and we were both surprised to find that around 40% in his age group practice some kind of BDSM. I reckon almost everyone has some peccadillo they deal with in their lives. And why would he ( or anyone ) submit to any counseling if no charges are filed?
cheers
pb+
I knew it, today LA one game behind, Musgrove is an asshole, but not one of those who give up, he is their best pitcher, and with high spirits, SD is going to fight until the last day, which hurts for those idiots who will not reach them, Cardinals will be the second wild card
Giants have scored their first run on a wild pitch. They have men on 1st and 2nd.
Friars got out of it ….. WHEW! 4-1 bottom of 7th 1 out. La Stella just got a PH single.
Nail biting time! YIKES now 7-2 bottom of 7th …… 2 out, man on 2nd. COME ON you brown clad turds, TIGHTEN IT UP!
HAHA I said 7-2 meant 4-2 but now IS 7-2 top of the 8th!
4-2 Padres top of the 8th.
I’m not sure how many times CK has to say he has no intention of retiring. His injuries may be a precursor to a UCL injury in the future but I recall CK saying how relieved he was at the results of his forearm exam. He throws more sliders than anyone these days. He may have just had the injury that was reported and nothing more.
I see CK breaking Sutton’s K record. I see CK crossing 3000 K’s as a Dodger. It would be nice if he was around long enough to break Sutton’s W record too.
I agree with Bluto. A 90% chance of Bauer being suspended seems correct to me. I think he gets a year with no charges. More if he’s charged. I tend to think he won’t be charged in criminal court. The photos. The woman saying he went too far and waking up to being rear ended will be enough for Manfred.
Quite frankly, I think the Dodgers are hoping for a long suspension so they can put his money toward Scherzer and CK. I think they will take a run at Seager too if Bauer’s money is off the books.
Manfredo is an expert at rear ending ….. so …………
Kersh at 184 wins, Sutton at 233. 49wins away, He would need to average 16 wins a year for 3 seasons. He has won 40 over the last 4. I do not think he is getting a 3 year deal. I think they are going to make a concerted effort to re-sign Scherzer. The big 3 will be Scherzer, Urias and Buehler. Kersh and Gonsolin would be 4 and 5 if Kersh is retained. No way they give Kersh 20 mil a year. Pasadena PD has supposedly turned over all of the evidence in the investigation to the DA, but no decision whether or not to prosecute has been reached. I think Manfredo suspends him for at least a year with no pay. In that case the MLBPA is going to file a grievance. Dodgers are going to sit back and see where the case goes before they take any action on trying to void his contract.
I think Kershaw knows he hasn’t put up the innings in recent years. I also think his legacy is important to him and he’s a one team player even if that is as the veteran #4 or #5. There aren’t many one team players these days but I expect the Dodgers and Kershaw will make it work like the Cardinals have with Molina and Wainright.
Padres score 3 in the 8th. 7-2 the score.
7-3 now. Giants just keep chipping away. 2 outs though.
The story in MLBTR concerning what kind of contract Taylor might get this winter is very interesting. They feel he could get 5 years in the 80 million dollar range.
If he gets offers in that vicinity ,then my guess is he’ll be playing for someone else
Not to say he wouldn’t be worth it, but the Dodgers have too many other priorities
I do not think LA offers him anything close to that, and certainly no more than 3 years. They will give Seager a QO simply to make sure they get a draft pick if he goes elsewhere.
Agreed that would be the prudent thing to do all around as far as the Dodger’s, stuation goes
Pads showing some spine! It’s ours for the taking now! Bring the big boy bats tomorrow! Wouldn’t it be something if Lux continues to lead the charge!
Did not think they had it in them. But they look like they are winning 2 in a row and helping the Dodgers close the gap to 1 game. Giants have the Braves this weekend. They are facing Atlanta’s best 3. Anderson, Morton and Freid. Dodgers need to just whack the blazes out of the Rockies and Arizona next week. Giants still battling in the 9th with one out and two on.
Fingers crossed dude. Wild pitch 7-4, man on 2nd two outs, Belt up to bat.
Brown suits are trying to make it TOO interesting.
EDIT …… they did it! 25 pitch 9th …… they REALLY tried to give the midgets a chance.
Yahoo! Only one behind now.
cheers
pb+
One back with 15 to play. Dodgers and Giants schedules almost the same as far as competition goes. LA has better pitching though than the Giants lately.
Really just need the bottom of the order to have competitive AB’s an occasional knock and productive outs when the team needs contact. The way the Reds are playing anything less than a sweep would be a bit disappointing.
Sigh of relief. Padres playing for their life and they pulled it out
Momentum is in our court and now we have to take advantage of it
Pressure is all on the hated ones now
1 game back with 15 left to play!
With the rainout in Atlanta today the Giants will now face Ian Anderson who will start Friday’s series opener at Oracle Park. Charlie Morton and Max Fried are scheduled to start the final two games of the series.
My last comment on Trevor Bauer. I never wanted LAD to sign him. So I am not emotionally attached to him as a Dodger. I know, I know, I know, I know that he does not have to have committed a crime to be suspended. I know that MLB only needs to find that he has violated the domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy to suspend him.
I thought that I would go to the CBA to see if I could get a better understanding. It is all legalese (as you might expect). The agreement calls for the player to be on administrative (paid) leave while all of the investigations are ongoing. Even though the leave is with pay, the player has the right to appeal before a Grievance Arbitration Panel if he wants to. Bauer chose not to appeal, and while the Pasadena Police investigation was ongoing, IMO he would have had a difficult time prevailing. The Agreement does allow for the Commissioner to defer a penalty until the criminal or civil suit has been determined, but that would be administrative leave. At the conclusion of the legal proceedings, the Commissioner could exact a suspension and make it retroactive. There is no maximum or minimum length of the suspension, and it is at the discretion of the Commissioner. The Commissioner can refer the discipline to the Club but only after MLB’s investigation is concluded.
The CBA defines sexual assault thusly; “Sexual assault refers to a range of behaviors, including a completed nonconsensual sex act, an attempted nonconsensual sex act, and/or nonconsensual sexual contact. Lack of consent is inferred when a person uses force, harassment, threat of force, threat of adverse personnel or disciplinary action, or other coercion, or when the victim is asleep, incapacitated, unconscious or legally incapable of consent.”
I think here is where the Commissioner has some latitude, but the last “or legally incapable of consent” portion is what may be a defining issue. I am no attorney, and I never played one on TV, but my novice understanding is that the clause “when the victim is asleep, incapacitated, unconscious or legally incapable of consent” would coincide with the law’s intent. If the DA concludes that this did not happen, then how can MLB? Again, I acknowledge that Bauer does not have to be charged, and what the DA may or may not do is not binding for the Commissioner. Which brings another question, has the Commissioner deferred the penalty until the legal proceedings are complete? The Commissioner does need to advise the player if that is what they are doing, but I have not heard any commentary on that.
People have brought up Mickey Callaway and Sam Dyson. Both acknowledged that they should have been suspended and have agreed to the evaluation and treatment program described in the agreement. As did Marcell Ozuna and Roberto Osuna. None of the prior players suspended under this Agreement appealed their suspension and accepted it. I doubt that Trevor Bauer will accept the suspension and treatment.
Based upon my reading of the Agreement, I am guessing that the case currently sits at Section III C 2 a…
“In certain cases, the Commissioner may decide that he is not in a position to impose discipline until the
resolution of a criminal or legal proceeding, but that allowing the Player to play during the pendency of
the criminal or legal proceeding would result in substantial and irreparable harm to either the Club or
Major League Baseball. In such exceptional cases the Commissioner may suspend the Player with pay
pending resolution of the criminal or legal proceeding (or until the Commissioner determines that he
has just cause to impose an unpaid, disciplinary suspension).”
Unless there is change in the new CBA language, my new guess is that the Commissioner will suspend Bauer at least for 2022, but that Bauer will appeal to the Arbitration Panel saying that it was all consensual. I am also guessing that since the burden of proof is on MLB, they are going to need more than he said she said to convince the Arbitration Panel. It has never gone this far, so there is no precedent.
To me, that is why this case is interesting, and admittedly has got my attention. It is the process and not the act that has my interest piqued.
For those of you who are interested, below is the CBA, and the pertinent section is Attachment 52, CBA pages 308-227.
https://d39ba378-ae47-4003-86d3-147e4fa6e51b.filesusr.com/ugd/b0a4c2_95883690627349e0a5203f61b93715b5.pdf
I would still like an attorney’s view of the Attachment, and an answer to whether there is a delay in the DA’s actions or if this is normal period of time to make a decision.
Okay I am done with this. If Trevor Bauer never throws another pitch, I will not lose any sleep.
That makes two of us.
Wow, the baseball gods must be pulling for us with the rain. It could be that game never gets made up if it doesn’t have any bearing on the final standings. Rested bullpen for Atlanta. Hopefully Joc will bring his bat.
The Dodgers just need to keep up their roll and things should take care of themselves. I don’t want to see us in a tiebreaker game, then have to play a wild card game afterwards. What a horrible disadvantage. How do the powers that be make such stupid decisions without looking forward and analysing all possibilities?
I’m not too happy about having back to back day games during the Reds series either. Saturday’s game was originally scheduled as a night game. Go figure we get screwed some more.
Nobody knows crap about the Bauer situation and what the Dodgers will or won’t do. I’ll say this, AF isn’t going to give him away for nothing. Kasten was already dismissive when commenting about him. You all read too many tabloids and need to work on identifying fact from fiction.
In case you haven’t noticed, but the sportswriters today are all in the same journalism class where their sources are all “multiple anonymous sources”. No one does any verification or fact checking. To say that “Two anonymous sources who aren’t players or coaches, but are familiar with the inner working of the clubhouse say that “most” players don’t want him back”. That statement has more red flags than Tiananmen Square. Let me list them…
Anonymous – Won’t list the name because they don’t matter. Not a coach, not a player. Is he the jockstrap washer?
Aren’t players – Can’t get a single player to confirm, that’s pretty lazy
Aren’t coaches – See above
Familiar with the inner workings of the clubhouse – If you aren’t a player or on the coaching staff, you aren’t that familiar.
Most players don’t want him back – Did they take a survey? Did they actually hear 15 players (26 man roster, plus IL, plus taxi squad) say that? I call shenanigans.
This is a non-story and the ONLY story that makes this claim. Every other writer is just regurgitating their own opinion.
Did anybody do any kind of analysis to see…
If any other players that were banned under the same rule get blackballed from baseball for life?
How many players that received suspensions went back to their team?
How many were on expired contracts?
I haven’t seen anyone write an article with those important points.
So far the longest suspension was one year. The player was in a long term relationship with his girlfriend and physically and emotional abused her repeatedly where she was basically a captive. He got 1 year. Are you all telling me that having rough sex twice is equivalent to that? Aroldis fired six rounds from a gun after already getting physical with his significant other during a blow out, shit show of a fight. Bauer worse than that?
People assume the Dodgers passed on Aroldis because of his character. But, no one really knows this. The facts are the Dodgers were in dire need of a closer and they had no idea how long the suspension would be. It makes sense that they passed on him for that reason. There are no facts either way.
I’ll stand by what I said earlier. If the Dodgers think they’re gonna contend next year, they’re gonna do what they think will get them the most wins. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise. In fact, the only statements I’ve seen the Dodgers make was Kasten’s joke and AF giving a very canned line that the Dodgers stand behind the player until all the facts come out.
So far, a judge made a ruling and made a statement saying, paraphrased that Bauer did what was asked and stopped when asked. Coming from a liberal, female Los Angeles judge is a very strong statement.
Twitter is fantasy land. It is not representative of the fan base and the sportswriters are all a big part of the twittersphere. I don’t care about their opinions any more that I care about yours when they get 80% of all trade and free agent predictions wrong.
I saw guys wearing Bauer Jersey’s in the stands after the incident. If there was the backlash that the sportswriters are claiming, this wouldn’t happen.
Who knows, maybe Bauer and his agent request a trade because he wants to start over somewhere else. Maybe he wants to stay. Maybe AF wants to trade him, maybe Kasten won’t let him. Maybe the Guggenheims override everyone and make the final call. He’s a Cy Young winner in the prime of his career and was arguable one of the best pitchers in the league up until this happened.
A lot of people will lose steam over the offseason and forget about this. That’s the reason why everyone involved agreed to his PAID suspension until the end of the year and the postseason. If Bauer thought he was gonna get screwed, I doubt he would agree to this.
Everyone has an opinion, but I don’t see anyone putting any kind of reasoning behind it, doing any kind of analysis, showing precedence, or having inside information. You’re just repeating what some sportswriter wants you to think.
Good post.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Aren’t players – Can’t get a single player to confirm, that’s pretty lazy;
do you really think a player would go on record?
The facts are the Dodgers were in dire need of a closer;
they had Jansen. They were not desperate. They may have walked away because they didn’t know the suspension time but they were not desperate for a closer.
Aren’t players – Can’t get a single player to confirm, that’s pretty lazy; do you really think a player would go on record? The facts are the Dodgers were in dire need of a closer; they had Jansen. They were not desperate. They may have walked away because they didn’t know the suspension time but they were not desperate for a closer.
Yes, players went on record to complain about Puig.
The year they traded and then cancelled the Chapman deal, Jansen was in his final year of control and just came off a solid year, but started the season injured and missed all of April and half of May. He had never been an all star at the point in time of the trade. Maybe they just wanted a better option. But, they did desperately need bullpen help.
Over the years, some players have openly complained about others. Most notable was Don Sutton’s blast at Garvey that ignited a club house fight. He was openly critical of Garvey’s self promotion and claimed the real MVP of the team was Reggie Smith. Jeff Kent was none to nice about how he felt about Matt Kemps work habits when Kemp first came up. There have been other less publicized beefs. But quite a few players went on record about Yasiel. Not so out in the open were complaints about Hanley Ramirez when he was there. He was not considered a great team mate. And when he was there, there were some cliques in the Dodger clubhouse. I think the uncertainty about Chapman’s possible suspension affected the trade.