Going into last night’s game, Clayton Kershaw had the highest ERA I can remember at this juncture. His ERA was 3.33 before the game and 3.66 after he gave up 5 ER. However, his WHIP sits at 1.01 which is barely above his career average of 1.00. He is now 33 years-old and has started 369 games and pitched 2,403 innings with 2,603 strikeouts. He has 77 strikeouts in about 1/3 of a season, so it seems very likely that he will get the 85 more strikeouts he needs to pass the late Don Sutton and hold the Dodgers All-Time strikeout record.
Clayton also has the lowest ERA of any pitcher in the modern ERA and even if he puts up an ERA as he has right now, at the end of this year, he will still have the lowest career ERA of any pitcher since 1920! That would be quite an accomplishment and he would be a certain first-ballot Hall-of-Famer… if he retires at the end of this season, which is precisely what I think he will do. To have the lowest ERA in the modern era of baseball is something no one can ever take away.. and Clayton did it the right way. There has never been a player more “squeaky clean” with such character as Clayton Kershaw.. which is precisely why I think he will retire as the Dodger’s greatest pitcher of all time.
Sandy Koufax was the Dodgers’ greatest pitcher for a five-year period – no one even comes close to his “otherworldly” stuff and statistics, but over a 14-year career, no one comes close to Clayton. Now, don’t get me wrong, Clayton is still a very, very good pitcher and what he is going through right about now may just be a blip on the radar. However, come playoff time, Clayton could be the #4 starter. Julio has struggled a little lately, but by playoff time, Bauer or Buehler will likely be #1 and the other will be #2. Julio Urias could move up to #3 and Clayton may have to accept being #4.
I will take that, and I am going to enjoy watching Clayton pitch is his final year, but he will be 34 next year and the only thing he can do to his legacy is tarnish it. He has three young children and is involved in a bunch of charitable work. Clayton may even be planning to play another year, but whether the Dodgers win or lose this year, I think he will hang it up. There is nothing more for him to prove.. except that he is not the greatest pitcher in the modern era. Why do that? Go out on top with a record that will never be equaled: The All-Time Modern era ERA Leader!
Of course, Clayton is declining, but he is still damn good! I am not burying him yet! However, he is no longer the Workhorse… although he is still a horse. Currently, he has the highest starter ERA on the team, but I do believe he will be near 3.00 by season’s end. Dustin May will likely miss next season (or a good portion of it), but then there is Josiah Gray and Bobby Miller to take a spot in the rotation. In 2022, the rotation could look like this:
- Trevor Bauer
- Striker Buehler
- Julio Urias
- Tony Gonsolin
- Bobby Miller or JoJo Gray
While we are at it, the Dodgers are likely going to lose Chris Taylor and Corey Seager to Free Agency, but they also have McKinstry, Raley, Reks, Ruiz, Casey, Busch, Amaya (pick ’em), and others who can step up in 2022. Could this be the lineup in 2022?
- Betts RF
- Lux SS
- Bellinger CF
- Smith 3B
- Muncy 1B
- Pollock LF
- Ruiz C
- McKinstry 2B
The Dodgers then have the $$$ to sign Bellinger and Buehler long term.
Dodgers Minor League Report
There is a lot going on within the Dodgers Minor League System. As we look at last night’s games, I will give my 35,000-foot view of the top players on each team over the next few days. Today I will start with the OKC Dodgers. A minor league team is in constant churn, working with the various players and separating the pretenders from the contenders. Remember, that progress is not linear and for years, a player like Jeren Kendall looks lost and you wonder “What are the Dodgers thinking?” At AA Tulsa, he hit .176 in May, albeit with a .349 OB%. However, at the start of June, he started heating up and in 5 games has hit .381 with a .435 OB%. It’s a small sampling, but it appears there is hope. On the other hand, you have players like Starling Heredia who have just evaporated. It’s a complicated and inexact science, developing boys into men and baseball players, but if the Dodgers don’t have the best development process and team in baseball, I don’t know who does.
OKLAHOMA CITY DODGERS – The Dodgers did not play as the game was postponed due to rain. After a horrid start, they are now 11-15 and playing well. Players to watch:
- Rangel Ravelo 1B/3B – .413/.520/.775/1.295 OPS Those are otherworldly numbers and he has been in the minors for eleven years, but if he keeps this up, surely he will get a shot.
- Keibert Ruiz C – .308/.345/.635/.980 OPS The Dodgers Top Prospect and #44 on the MLB Prospect List.
- Josiah Gray RHP – he has only pitched 5 innings but is the Dodger’s #2 Prospect and #45 in MLB. He was scheduled to start May 12, and was scratched from that start and has not been seen since then due to a shoulder injury. The Dodgers are close-lipped on this stuff, so who knows, but they were going to call him up when May, Price, and Gonsolin went down. He is likely going to be Workhorse #3 or #4-Type Starter.
- Luke Raley RF – .370/.433/.796/1.230 OPS Just like Ravelo, those are amazing stats, but he was not able to execute on the major league level… yet. To me, he projects as a #4 or #5 outfielder but could be ranked higher on another team. He has great power and a rocket arm.
- Zach Reks LF – .342/.447/532/.978 OPS While he does not have the arm Raley has, he is well-suited for LF. The Dodgers certainly do not need both Raley and Reks and Matt Beaty is very similar… maybe with less power.
- DJ Peters OF – So athletic and talented, but his strikeout rate is off the charts. I am of the opinion he will never make it, but if he does, it would be awesome.
- Sheldon Neuse 2B/3B/LF – He only has 12 ABs at AAA, but the Dodgers are very high on him, seeing him as a player in the style of CT3 and Kike. He has a “soft glove” and will surprise you with his defense. I think he will be a .250-.260 hitter with POP from the RH side.
- Andy Burns C & Steven Souza, Jr. – Both are doing well, but are not prospects (both are over 30) – they are “organizational depth” and there in case of catastrophe!
- Omar Estevez SS/CF – He is not fast, doesn’t have a great arm, and is hitting .198. However, he is a player and at age 23 there is plenty of time. I just don’t have high hopes for him.
- Darien Nunez LHP – 3-0/2.25 ERA/1.11 WHIP/ 15.1 IP/7 H/10 BB/22 K and the league is hitting .140 against him. On the pitching side, there is not a lot to like beyond Darien Nunez, who would be on the LA Dodgers, not the OKC Dodgers if he could harness his control a little better. If he can cut down on the walks (just a little) we will see him soon.
- Mitch White and Dennis Santana RHP – Both of these guys have great stuff. White is 26 and will likely pitch a lot in LA, while Santana is 25 and may need another year in AAA. I expect to see both on Major League Rosters in the future.
Phil Bickford is already up and has put up 6 shutout innings. I have not seen him enough to make any determination, but he is a different look than some of the other bullpen pieces. Edwin Uceta, to me is the 13th guy on the pitching staff. You use him in blowouts and to eat innings.
Of the names I mentioned above, I believe 7 or 8 of the players will be solid major leaguers with two having a shot at being All-Stars: Ruiz and Gray. It is not an exact science, but talent is undeniable – the question is “can they harness it?”
TULSA DRILLERS BOXSCORE – Tulsa won 4-2 and had 12 hits! Kendall had 2 and Carlos Rincon had and everyone else had 1 hit. John Rooney went 4.1 innings and allowed 1 hit while striking out 7. Mark Washington went 1.2 innings and was credited with the win, while Nate Robertson went the last 2.1 innings allowing 1 hit to go with 4 strikeouts.
GREAT LAKES LOONS BOXSCORE – The Loons got 14 hits an scored 11 runs are they beat the Whitecaps like rented mules. Vargas was 2-5 with a double. Andy Pages hit his 8th HR and Ryan Ward hit 2 HR’s. Ching also hit a bomb. Vargas, Ching, Outman, and Valera all had 2 hits an Ward had 3. Bobby Miller pitchd 4.1 1 hit innings and Martinez, Cantleberry and Fink closed the game out.
RANCHO CUCAMONGA QUAKES The Quakes are now 15013 after beating the 66’ers 4-3. They knocked 10 base hits and Mateo, McWilliams, and Lewis all had 2 hits each. Choi went 5.1 innings for the win, allowing 1 hit, 0 Runs and striking out 8.
In Memory of D-Day
C K has flashes of his former self. There are games where he is in complete control. Then there are games like yesterday where one inning dooms him. He also has become very susceptible to the HR ball. It did not bite him last night, but it has in the past. Trienen gave up a homer last night to a guy hitting so far below the Mendoza line he needed a telescope to see .200. Pitiful. This is not vintage Kershaw, and probably never will be again.
Treinen also had a groin pull recently and had a streak of 10 games in a row without giving up an ER. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and then. That was the 2nd HR he’s given up this year. The other was Josh Fuentes in CO. You can expect every reliever to be perfect, but I don’t think that’s a realistic expectation.
I do not see how they can seriously keep Raley, Reks and Beaty over the long haul. At least one will have to go. Beaty has had the most success at the MLB level. Reks has not made it yet, and Raley did nothing to state his case. As for Ravelo, Souza and Burns, chances are slim any of those guys gets the call. Ravelo would have the first shot I think, but that would mean a roster move involving someone on the 40 man. My most likely candidate to be off of the roster would be Tsutsugo. I do not think the hitting coaches have a clue how to turn this guy around.
That proposed lineup and pitching staff will be lucky to win 85 games, so we had better hope that it is a good deal stronger than that.
If no one is going to develop or get better.
“To have the lowest ERA in the modern era of baseball is something no one can ever take away.”
Records are made to be broken, so of course someone could take it away, deGrom for example.
Unless I misunderstood your comment Mark, you indicate that among other things not signing CT3 will help us accumulate the money to sign Bellinger. In my opinion, right now, Taylor is more valuable to this team than Bellinger is and would be far, far less expensive to sign. I really don’t know that signing both of them is mutually exclusive, but if it is, I think that ultimately AF might choose Taylor, just because of the vast difference in contracts.
Jacob DeGrom will be 33 next week and has half the innings Clayton has. He will never get there. He might pull ahead of Clayton, but he will not qualify because he does not have the requisite innings.
Taylor over Bellinger? Seriously? Then CT3 is also better than Mookie.
Chris Taylor has put up 14.4 WAR in his career and is OPS’ing .788. He is also 5 years older than Cody.
Cody has put up 18.8 WAR in his career and is OPS’ing .906.
On no planet would a rational person chose Taylor over Bellinger. I like CT3, but there is no comparison.
I agree that no rational person would choose CT3 over Cody, but there may not be enough money to sign everyone (Seager, Belli, Buehler, Kershaw, Bauer for more years, etc.). If AF decides he’s rather have some of the others, he might choose to spend less on Taylor so he can spend more on someone else and Belli might not be that someone.
Yep, Clayton is slipping a bit. He’s given up 5 ER in 4 games so far this year. He’s also given up 2 ER or less in 7 games this year. That’s an uncharacteristic roller coaster ride of a season so far. I would expect to see those 5+ runs to be less frequent going forward. It almost feels like he loses focus at times.
There was talk yesterday about resigning him at about 25M. I’m not sure how many pitchers are making 25M, but it seems a little steep for a guy with a 3.50+ ERA and trending in the wrong direction who has a history of pitching much worse than his regular season stats during the post-season.
I’m not ready to move on from Clayton, but at the same time, I’m not willing to pay top dollar going forward for his past accolades and to feel good about him only playing with one team. Maybe he should wind down his career in Texas pitching in front of family and friends, or take a reasonable team friendly deal to stick around. $15M with incentive to bring it to $20?
I was amazed yesterday, in a 6-4 loss that the bullpen was called out. So, if the bullpen isn’t perfect, we’re going to hear how they suck? We lose by 2 runs, the bullpen give up one, but the bullpen is the problem. Someone complained about Kenley walking two guys the night before that can’t hit, but failed to give him accolades after he retired the top of the order, in order after those two walks. By the way, that’s one of the best 1-3 hitters in any lineup in baseball.
More injuries. Just when you think the lineup is starting to look like the beast that AF has assembled, Max and Austin come up with sprained ankles. I don’t care what Austin’s medical test results say, put him on the IL and bring up Keibert. Maybe Ruiz can Wally Pip him. It’s hard to make a case that Barnes needs to be Clayton’s personal catcher when he’s had 4 starts of 5 runs. It’s time to nip that personal catcher thing in the bud.
Why is Yoshi still taking up a roster spot? Talk about warm body. He did hit a liner yesterday, right to Freddie Freeman. Did that buy him more time? It sure would be nice having a hot RH bat to go against Max Fried today with Muncy on the bench. I guess we’ll have to settle for Albert.
Comparing Yoshi to Belli was an interesting comment yesterday. Since coming off the IL, Belli is 4 – 13 (307) with 7 RBI, 4 runs, a homer and a stolen base in 4 games. Not a bad start back from the IL for someone who’s missed half of Spring Training and only played in a handful of rehab games. If Yoshi could do that, he would have a full time job.
Less than 2 1/2 hours before gametime and the Dodgers haven’t submitted their lineup yet. More roster changes?
I’ve commented before that I feel the best scenario is for the Dodgers to win the WS this year and for Kershaw to then retire on top. His desire to play for another two years would make for an uncomfortable decision for the Dodgers.
He will not want to take a pay cut and his performance will continue to decline, and if the Dodgers have to continue to fork over 31 million AAV that seriously puts a damper on their ability to sign over key players and keep their younger core. But if he wants to continue to play how do the Dodgers say no?
… Best thing is a WS parade where he’s honored and Clayton Kershaw Night next year where he’s honored on a ring ceremony and given a good sendoff for his career. … and if he’ stubbornly refuses to retire, kick him to the curb and just give him a bobble head night.
Saw a familiar name in a Fangraphs article. Hope he makes a comeback.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-jharel-cotton-is-on-the-comeback-trail-and-has-a-snow-blower/
I concur, he didn’t really justify his last contract. We already overpaid him, no need to continue. I don’t think other teams are going to line up to offer him 25M per year.
1. Betts RF
2. Turner 3B
3. Taylor 2B
4. Pujols 1B
5. Pollock LF
6. Bellinger CF
7. Smith C
8. Lux SS
9. Bauer P
Kershaw is a good pitcher a very good pitcher. However, he has one great pitch the slider. The rest of his repertoire is average at best. I am glad Mark has finally conceded he is not our number 1. He hasn’t been for a couple of years. But that is no shame because buehler is quite good.
The reason I was on the bullpen last night is that a 1 run game late is easier to overcome than a 2 run or more obviously. We just needed the bullpen to hold but no. I think treinen is hurt mb not enough for dL but enough to slow his performance. Yes Jansen did a great job of getting Atlanta’s best but it wasn’t necessary. We consistently walk weak hitters or give up a homer to guy hitting 120. We have to dominate those guys so the best hitters don’t beat you. The best pitch in baseball is strike one to get ahead. Every time a bullpen guy comes in it’s time to bite your nails. If honest that is the truth.
I agree CK should call it a career after this season. Hopefully we can win another WS title and he could go out in style.
It would save us a lot of money and combined with some other huge contracts coming off the books (Kelly, Jansen) we could afford to resign Cory if the Dodgers wish too.
I would be just fine to go into 22 with a rotation of Bauer, Walker, Julio, Catman and Gray (or Miller, who looks terrific and should be on the very fast track). Lineup would be not too shabby either even if we should lose CT3:
Betts
Muncy
Turner
Cory
Cody
Smith
Pollock
Lux
I go to war with this rotation and lineup every day.
On a different note: What is wrong with Busch?Haven´t seen his name in the Tulsa lineup for some time now?
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0erRWlKlWM
Early in the year Kershaw was having a bit of a renaissance. His ERA was well under 3.00 and he was a top five pitcher in spite of the fact he can’t throw a 93-95 four seamer anymore. His slider has emerged this as an almost unhittable out pitch. I wonder if the spin rate on it had changed, and I wonder what the spin rate was on it in his last couple of starts.
I think what doesn’t get mentioned in the whole sticky controversy is the role of the new ball this year. If the seams are in fact different – if they’re a little more raised than before – then that can have an effect on movement and can aid in the ability to grip the ball and create more spin.
That 2022 lineup looks vulnerable to me. Unless Lux develops into an all star and Bellinger returns to his pre 2020 form then that lineup won’t win a WS. With our pitching it’s better than an 85 win team but not a championship team
I seriously doubt that will be the lineup and rotation. If you take CK, CT3 and Seags off the books, AF will certainly spend some cash to offset those losses. Kenley isn’t going to make 20M in 2022 either and Kelly and his 8M is also gone.
CK = 31M
CT3 = 7.8M
Seags = 13.7
KJ = 20M
JK = 8M
That’s 80M coming off the books. I’m sure they’ll find a way to augment that lineup.
If we’re going to put together a fake lineup, why not pencil in Smith at 1B, Muncy at 2B and Turner at 3B?
Betts RF
Muncy 2B
Turner 3B
Bellinger CF
Smith 1B
Ruiz C
Pollock LF
Lux SS
This looks contender worthy to me and they haven’t spent any of the 80M that’s coming off the books.
Well, I think Turner is ticketed for 1B or DH because he doesn’t have the range he once had. He knows this and wants to win. Remember that he volunteered to move when the Dodgers were courting Rendon.
It’s interesting to see how Seager’s absence is making the heart grow fonder… for Lux. Seems that the crowd here is increasingly embracing the idea that, one way or another, Seager will be moving on. If AF feels the same way, then notions like Seager for Gleyber Torres seem feasible.
When Seager is hot, he is a thing of beauty–at least at the plate. The problem with throwing megabucks at him is evident now: He is injury prone. I don’t think the Cal Ripkens or Steve Garveys stayed in the lineup because of pure luck. Is Lux the future SS? Certainly possible. I even saw him dive for a ball!
The thought of Smith moving over to 3rd has me thinking about Ron Cey, a fine player who similarly lacked the stature of a Schmidt of Machado or Bryant. Smith may have more value at C but moving could lengthen his career. (Didn’t Joe Torre make the same move?) That said, I’m not sure Ruiz would be a defensive or offensive upgrade at C–and then Cartaya is waiting in the wings. If the Indians ever decide to take offers for Jose Ramirez, say, Ruiz could be a centerpiece in an offer.
I love it when guys like McKinstry and now (maybe) Donovan Casey move from longshot late draft pick to rising prospect status. The Angels’ Jered Walsh might be the best example going right now…but it’s hard to imagine anybody topping Lasorda’s godson in that category.
Well we can’t get Almonte and Adrianza out. We continue to fail against the bottom of the lineup. Of course, it won’t matter anyway since we can’t score.
Unbelieveable how this team can’t capitalize on a first and second with nobody out inning. AJ and Belli lead off an inning to only see Smith and Lux pop up and K. CK and Bauer are supposed to BIG DOGS, but came up small in hotlanta.
Albert still gotta bit of pop.
Both RBIs are his today.
Did Doc give up on this game. Why take out Gonzalez and bring in another lefty Price. An inferior lefty. I swear I hate Doc’s management of the bullpen.
I think V-Gon is dealing with something. He has not pitched much lately. You don’t have enough information to make a rational decision about that. Jumping to conclusions is not an Olympic Sport.
These Dodgers had better find a passion well to tap into because games like this are nearly unwatchable A single run is pretty telling things are very dry and much more of the same will have effect for a declining fanbase. At least play with an energy that all that money should of bought. It doesn’t look like there’s a lot of enjoyment just passing it on for the next guy. Take control pass that on.
This is just not a very good team right now. Starting pitching has slowed considerably. No offense. Atlanta made 4 errors yesterday trying to give the game away but LA wouldn’t accept. And the bullpen well once u get there the game is over for sure.
Atlanta with a below 500 record. Acuna did nothing in the series but the power group of Almonte, enciarte, adrianza, and some other guy I can’t even think of smoked us. Kershaw and Bauer didn’t give up a homer there is that.
This was Atlanta’s World Series.
The Dodgers were FLAT!
A lot of people whine about our bullpen being the weak link but it’s our lack of no offensive production that is this teams weakness. Since our fast start, 19 times we’ve scored 3 or less runs. That’s not going to win a championship. Fried comes into today and hasn’t been able to get anybody out all year but slices through us like a hot knife through butter. And Lux is looking like nothing more than league average player and possibly a platoon player. He looked absolutely lost against lefties today.
They may have to re-sign Seager.
Absolutely have to resign him! Especially if Bellinger doesn’t return to his first three years production.
If you can only sign one and not the other, sign me up for the Corey Seager fan club
Kershaw the last 3 years is a very good pitcher but he is definitely not a 30 million AAV pitcher anymore, the Dodgers have overpaid him the last three years. I think he should sign one-year contracts with the team, until he runs out of gas and now he has to give the team a discount, he must understand that he is no longer a 30 or 25 million pitcher, 1/15 more Incentives would be great, but pride is involved.
Well, I think Turner is ticketed for 1B or DH because he doesn’t have the range he once had. He knows this and wants to win. Remember that he volunteered to move when the Dodgers were courting Rendon.
It’s interesting to see how Seager’s absence is making the heart grow fonder… for Lux. Seems that the crowd here is increasingly embracing the idea that, one way or another, Seager will be moving on. If AF feels the same way, then notions like Seager for Gleyber Torres seem feasible.
When Seager is hot, he is a thing of beauty–at least at the plate. The problem with throwing megabucks at him is evident now: He is injury prone. I don’t think the Cal Ripkens or Steve Garveys stayed in the lineup because of pure luck. Is Lux the future SS? Certainly possible. I even saw him dive for a ball!
The thought of Smith moving over to 3rd has me thinking about Ron Cey, a fine player who similarly lacked the stature of a Schmidt of Machado or Bryant. Smith may have more value at C but moving could lengthen his career. (Didn’t Joe Torre make the same move?) That said, I’m not sure Ruiz would be a defensive or offensive upgrade at C–and then Cartaya is waiting in the wings. If the Indians ever decide to take offers for Jose Ramirez, say, Ruiz could be a centerpiece in an offer.
I love it when guys like McKinstry and now (maybe) Donovan Casey move from longshot late draft pick to rising prospect status. The Angels’ Jered Walsh might be the best example going right now…but it’s hard to imagine anybody topping Lasorda’s godson in that category.
dodgers look flat and somehow desinterested. WS hangover and complacnecy after finally winning it all ?
If they continue like this they will miss the postseason.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1