Oh wait… maybe you aren’t!
Here we are: 50 games into the season and one win away from having the best record in baseball, even though the injury bug has arguably hit the Dodgers as hard as any team in baseball… probably harder. It seems to me, that is a reason to be happy, even excited for the future of this team, right here, right now, and in the future. However, what I read is that the Dodgers have no depth, AAA players are playing in the majors, the farm system is bare, and the sky is falling. I think those of you who cannot enjoy what is happening and can only focus on the wild imaginings in your head should seek professional help.
I will not beat this horse as I discussed this yesterday, but all I wills say is “SCOREBOARD!“
I continually hear that the Dodgers bullpen is horrid, the farm system is not deep and all sorts of other negative things based upon irrational fear! Pure, unadulterated irrational fear! In a year where we are approaching the one-third point with a team that is not hitting and has as many injuries as any team in baseball, the Dodgers are still the team that is most feared and are generally ranked as the #2 team in baseball behind the Padres.
Early in the season, Kenley Jansen was the whipping boy – “The Dodgers will never win with Jansen as the closer.” I am not going to prolong this, but I am going to say that if those of you who said such drivel were given an enema, you could be buried in a shoebox! I wanted to word that as delicately as possible so as not to offend anyone. Now Kenley is one of the best closers in baseball.
People have gone to great lengths to post the stats of Dodger players and how poorly they have performed in a few appearances or at-bats. All I can say is “SCOREBOARD!” Small samplings are something that we all would be advised to stay away from because even Mike Trout looked horrible in his first 40 or 50 AB’s. It’s a “knee-jerk reaction” that means ZERO, ZILCH, NADA! This is especially true this year in the Manfred Dead-Ball ERA. Many players are hitting 30 or 40 points below their normal averages. It’s something they have to live with and adjust to, but if Noisy, Peters, Raley, Tsutsugo, and others were hitting 30 or 40 points higher, nobody would be complaining. The way we measured in the past is skewed this year. Write that down and remember it. SCOREBOARD!
Now, the team is going to get some of their walking wounded back and you will have to search for something else to complain about. However, I am confident, you will invent something… not real, but imagined! Take a double dose of reality! It might feel good!
Dodger News
- Albert Pujols doesn’t do much, but the Dodgers just win when he plays. Refute that! I could have cruised into 2B standing, but the team loved his double. He was hustling in slow-motion.
- Is there a better back-end of a bullpen than Gonzalez, Treinen, and Jansen?
- Alex Wood has two losses, both to the Dodgers – We own you, Alex!
Bulto’s Report
The Dodgers have scored 108 runs with 2 outs this year, tops in Baseball.
Leonel Valera, SS, Dodgers
Age: 21
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
Carson Williams
Torrey Pines HS, San Diego
Muncy Maxing out
From Kevin Goldstein chat:
Jacques Pederson: How well do internal prospect rankings line up with public lists? I assume the Astros had their own rankings for other teams.
Kevin Goldstein: Everyone has their own rankings, and they tend to wildly differ from public lists.
Jason: Are organizations preparing for the possibility of robo umps? (For example, drafting poor pitch framers higher.) Or will most wait until it’s closer to happening?
Kevin Goldstein: Yes. Many are preparing for automated strike zone. Over/under is probably 2023.
From Ben Clemens Chat
Guest: Are we seeing max Muncy? He’s been on a hot streak.
Ben Clemens: This might even be super-max Muncy. He’s locked in at the plate in a way I haven’t seen someone in quite a while. Not just hitting the ball hard, but swinging where he can do damage and such. It’s quite impressive
Appa Yip Yip: If Mike Trout was teleported, as is, back to the 1920s what would his slash line look like?
2:13
Ben Clemens: Oh man, I have no idea how to think about this but I’m going to say something absurd. Like .450/.550/1.200
Baseball Prospectus takes a look at Bullpen usage, with the Dodgers as a prime example:
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/67116/we-need-a-restrictor-plate-for-pitching/
From Twitter’s Future Dodgers:
RHP Cameron Gibbens is a strong candidate for an early season promotion. In seven games for Low-A Rancho: 10.1 IP, 23/4 K/BB, and just one run allowed. The 6’8” 25-year old came over from Australia this past offseason.
Dodger MiLB wRC+ leaders after three weeks (min 40 PA)
189 Rangel Ravelo (AAA)
163 Carlos Rincon (AA)
156 Ryan Ward (A+)
153 Michael Busch (AA)
150 Edwin Mateo (A-)
146 Joe Vranesh (A+)
140 Miguel Vargas (A+)
136 Zach Reks (AAA)
126 James Outman (A+)
122 Leonel Valera (A+)
120 Jorbit Vivas (A-)
118 Brandon Lewis (A-)
116 Alex De Jesus (A-)
115 Andy Pages (A+)
107 Ryan Noda (AA)
104 Keibert Ruiz (AAA)
101 Devin Mann (AA)
89 Jake Vogel (A-)
88 Jacob Amaya (AA)
31 Omar Estévez (AAA)
14 Kody Hoese (AA)
PLEASE note that (a) THREE weeks, (b) players go through cold patches (c) For guys like Estévez and Hoese, they’re also seeing new levels for the first time.
Dodgers Minor League Report
- OKLAHOMA CITY DODGERS BOXSCORE It is painful to watch Yasiel Sierra with his 29.25 ERA and 6.25 WHIP (how is that even possible?). Logan Salow is really coming into his own (2.00 ERA/0.89 WHIP in 9 IP) and is looking like a viable option for the Dodgers bullpen. Will the Dodgers ever give Rangel Ravelo a chance?
- TULSA DRILLERS BOXSCORE MIke Busch broke out of his mini-slump and went 3-7 with a HR and a double. Donovan Casey went 3-6, and five Drillers pitchers looked very good: Carillo, Willeman, Bruihl, Zuniga, and Watson.
- GREAT LAKES LOONS BOXSCORE Miguel Vargas continues to rake as he went 2-4 (.306 BA). He is playing 3B. Ryan Ward continues to turn heads (.290), and Valera is breaking out! Jesus Vargas went 5 innings and allowed 1 run. Morgan Cooper followed him with 2 perfect innings and Ryley Widell pitched the final two scoreless innings.
- RANCHO CUCAMONGA QUAKES BOXSCORE 6′ 7″ RHP 19-year-old Carlos Duran started the game and pitched 3 scoreless innings. What is most notable is the of his 9 outs, 8 were by strikeout. Here is a video from 2 years ago:
Kenley actually looked like the Kenley of old. Like …. “what offspeed, I don’t need no stinkin’ offspeed”. Just mostly 92-96 and right where he wanted it.
Treinen, HOLY COW, the movement on his hard stuff ( and off speed ) is something to behold. I still say he has been the victim of mostly bad luck when he has gotten into trouble. Either guys just sticking their bats out and dinking something, and also a lot of missed strikes extending the AB. Umps have had a hard time following the movement on his fb, especially when it is a strike but is not where the catcher set up & has to move his glove across the plate ( roboump will fix that, though the umpiring last night was pretty darn good ).
Fun game, do not usually make it to the end of home games as I am in MST, but glad I did last night.
cheers
Treinen looks unhittable when he is on. Man, what movement on that one strikeout pitch. And at 98mph.
Have to admit I was wrong on KH. Thought he was done. Looks like the KJ of old . Maybe even better with the high heat topping out at 97 mph. Sheeez, those two arms look terrific at the end of a game.
Hope they can stay healthy.
DJ Peters-Finally we saw that immense raw power the kid has. I hope they keep him up when Belli returns and sent Tsutsugo down .
Why did Roberts take Price out with the pitcher coming out ? Had only 35 pitches and looked fantastic. I thought he would stay with him at least one more batter at this time of the game. Nothing big here just wondering.
Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yeah that whole “theory” about bringing guys in mid inning to replace guys who were in the “groove” really did not work out so well. I “kind of” understand the logic, but it sure did not work out.
Yep, people come up with some crazy observations. Not long ago, everyone wanted Lux in the outfield, now he looks like our best infielder.
Is this the real Max Muncy, or will he revert back to career norms? He’s hot right now, but K’s are not far off his normal pace and doubles are curiously infrequent for a guy with his overall power.
The bullpen is a lot better than people give them credit for. But, why not just finish an inning and bring in a fresh arm to begin next inning? Vesia at the plate with a bat in his hand was one of the ugliest things I’ve ever seen.
Would we be better off with Rangel Ravelo as a right handed power bat at 1st base rather than Albert? Or, is it worth the shot to see if Albert can get it going?
Does V-Gone suck now because he gave up a homer last night?
Did I see Kenley’s cutter at 95? Is he fixed, or will he forget his mechanics again?
I’m fantasizing about Albert working with Belli on his swing and Belli coming back with an MVP type second half.
The backend of the pen is starting to look elite – Jansen, Treinen, v-Gone. Knebel, Graterol, Nelson wouldn’t be too far off. Add in Price, Jones, Kelly and this pen is looking unstoppable later in the year. Will Kahnle make it back?
It seems like Price would have been able to slot into that 5th spot in the rotation sooner than Gonsolin. I don’t understand the decision to pull Price after 35 pitches, one out short of 3 innings, after facing the minimum with Woody coming to bat. Is he intentionally creating time for more commercials?
Dave Roberts changed pitchers in the middle of the inning, with nobody on 4 times last night. Twice, immediately following a strikeout.
Belli set to make his homecoming tomorrow night. Who’s going down? Nuese or Peters?
– Lux apparently suffered from the Steve Sax throwing yips in the minors, but I’ve seen no evidence of that since he’s been with the club. He’s been solid. People were saying the same about Will Smith being moved off of catcher, but if the pitchers give him a chance he’s got a good throwing arm.
– Max says he’s been seeing the ball well all season. I don’t see why he can’t be 2019 Muncy. I think JT’s issues are due in part to the dead ball. He’s putting wood on the ball, but he’s hitting lots of fly balls just short of the warning track. Maybe last year a lot of those are off the wall for doubles. He’s evolved his swing into an upper cut/launch angle style that’s not working for him right now.
– I was thinking about Ravelo. He’s raking right now, but I think the Pujols experiment was due in part on AF recognizing the need for some veteran stability, especially when the Dodgers were in a bit of a free fall with all the kids flailing around. They only have really JT and Betts as guys with that leadership presence, and you need that when the team isn’t playing well.
Lux seemed to struggle at times with throws from 2nd, but his throws from SS have mostly been spot on.
Probably Peters,
LOL.
The league average BA for 2021 is .236
The league average BA for 2020 is .245
Adding that nine point difference to Neuse’s BA brings it up to a whopping .188. Ks are up about 3.5% over last year. Neuse and DJ are both striking out nearly 40% of the time.
I’m glad you ranked the players above based on wRC+. As a rate stat, wRC+ is adjusted to the league average for each year, the average normalized to 100. So if a guy has a wRC+ of 110, that means he’s 10% better than league average FOR THAT YEAR. This eliminates the variability from year to year when making comparisons.
wRC+ for the Warm Body Brigade is as follows:
52 Neuse
17 Rios
29 Tsutsugo
26 Raley
69 Pujols
103 Peters
After ZMac and Beatty, the Dodger Warm Body Brigade hasn’t gotten it done. Even someone with half a gnat’s brain and Ray Charles’ eyesight can see that.
Glad Pujols legged out that double, but after seeing him make that crash landing into second base I thought he was going to need supplemental oxygen.
The range I’ve seen that rank farm systems put the Dodgers from around 10-16, which is the first time they’ve dropped of the top ten since 2015. The Padres are still really good at around 6, and still have Mackenzie Gore and CJ Abrams on the verge of making the club. The biggest jump is the Giants, who I’ve seen ranked as high as #4. Farhan has done a pretty good job in a pretty short time up there.
I have been watching minor league games and the Dodgers have some sleepers who are going to surprise us. Busch is settling in…. Hoese is struggling…
I thought I was on yesterday’s post when I read this. A half game out of best record in the league and you’re still complaining about our third line. It sounds like you need a nice long bike ride and a slice of zero zero when you get to DTHB. 😉
Enjoy the winning. Rios isn’t coming back until next year, he’s on the 60 day, doesn’t take up a roster spot. You suggesting we cut him for no reason whatsoever? You’re ignoring his previous two seasons of 162 and 149 OPS+ to dwell on a year when he clearly was hurt? What’s the point?
Who suggested cutting Rios?
DTHB has been pretty calm the last few weeks. I rolled through there a few weeks ago and there was a BLM protest and all kinds of craziness. What’s zero zero? Is that Zero Zero 39 (I just looked that up…looks good)?
https://photos.app.goo.gl/MuWJY11p5uotALSJ6
The Dodgers have a good team. I am enjoying the winning. They Dodgers will likely get much better when injured players come back. At the same time I’m not going to be a Pollyanna. Those guys aren’t “depth.” Depth is when you have substitute players who actually play well. And of course I don’t want to cut Rios. Honestly I’d rather they cut Pujols, but that’s tricky now because he’s Pujols. The Dodgers now have the same dilemma the Angels had. If Ravelo continues to play well and deserves a shot, how does that work with Pujols stuck on the roster?
Zero Zero is really good. The owners are from Rome, so they make their pizza Roman style. The slices are great, even better when you get the whole pie.
And I keep hearing that Doc can’t manage or can’t manage the bullpen. Yeah right. SCOREBOARD.LOL I can’t wait to get some of our stars back off the IL. Then we’ll really see some scoreboard.
I’m Bulto!
Who knew?
Looking at the schedule the Dodgers play the d-backs /Rockies 11 times in July. Talk about an all-star break.
Did Roberts give any explanation for his strategy behind his pitching changes after the game? I too thought Price should have continued to finish the inning and maybe try for four. He had only pitched 4 innings since he came back from the IL ten days ago. He was outstanding. Kelly really looks like he is improving his control of the fastball and changeup is becoming a weapon. I have to give Kenley and the coaching staff credit. They have dialed in his pitching motion to a repeatable delivery. That’s been the main issue for Kenley in the last few years. It’s very exciting to see him be dominating again. When Treinen is locked in he is unhittable and sometimes not umpirable (I know, it’s not a word). dodgerpatch, we may have a solid BP put together before your August deadline! LOL.
Price said that the decision to pull him at that time had to do with him getting his 2000th strike out. Price thought it was pretty cool and he was grateful Roberts did what he did.
Treinen needs roboumps more than most for sure.
Many fans hate Bull Pen games. They would prefer a 5th starter, even if that means a AAA guy comes up for a start. But it appears the Dodgers have no interest in that approach and prefer Johnny Wholestaff. Until Gonsolin comes back I doubt we will see anything else.
I count 4 Bull Pen games since Dustin May went down and we’re 2 and 2. Not so bad. Price, as a former starter, and has become the obvious choice of “openers”. Kelly is a former starter as well, so he’s an option.
It’s interesting to watch Doc navigate through the Bullpen options and try to put the best guy in a situation to succeed. But they’re committed to matchups and not complete innings.
Doc didn’t have much luck with his situational match ups last night.
Price gave way to Vesia with 2 outs in the 3rd who promptly walked the pitcher and the leadoff guy.
Vesia was replaced by Kelly in the 4th with 2 outs to match up with Longoria. He hit a bomb.
In the 6th Kelly gives way to V-Gon, after a strikeout, for a situational match up with Yaz, who’s bunt single set up Solano’s 2 run homer.
Nate Jones happily broke the bad luck substitution streak in the 7th after replacing V-Gon, with 2 outs.
So Doc had no luck with situational relief pitching but he did get the game to where he wanted it for the 8th and 9th. Treinen and KJ were the 2 guys Doc wanted with a 1 run lead and “All’s Well That Ends Well”.
KJ is relying on some high velo cheese instead of constantly relying of the cutter. More speeds and more to looks. That has been a great adjustment.
A couple of you have commented about Rangel Ravelo above. Once we get Belli and ZMac back this weekend that’s adding two more left handed hitters and almost definitely one or both of Neuse and Peters will be sent to OKC making us even more skewed toward lefty hitters.
Except for the fact that he isn’t on the 40-man, this would be the perfect time to add Ravelo (and probably subtract Tsutsugo or add Nelson retroactively to the 60 day IL). He has plenty of experience, not only at first base where Albert is now in his way, but also in the outfield and third base. He deserves a shot.
Can’t remember if I’ve pointed this out here, but he’s Cuban and he’s an ex-Cardinal. Arozarena and Adolis Garcia ain’t doin’ half bad these days.
Two pitches I love this year are Kenley’s slider and Kelly’s change up. Also less sliders Joe and more 99 cheese. You’re healthy now so let it rip!
So, here is a classic case-in-point of how you cannot judge a player in fewer than 100 to 250 AB’s.
May Muncy:
2015 (112 AB’s) .206 BA
2016 (133 AB’s) .186 BA
2017 -Went to OKC (AAA) in 481 AB’s hit .309 with 12 HR
2018 – March & April – He hit .207
At that point, a bunch of Dodger fans were calling him an “AAAA Player” and begging to send him down. I’d say it turned out pretty good. There is no way we can tell how good Noisy, Peters, Raley and others at this point… unless we are psychic and I have seen no proof of that. If I remember correctly AC was high on Max!
You’ve been saying this all along and tempering criticism of guys like Lux who’s looking more big league everyday. Of course that nasty losing streak kind of magnified everything negative. I for one appreciate your longer term perspective.
Mad Max retooled his swing (like Turner and Taylor before him) and so was a different player with the Dodgers than he had been with the A’s. It’s possible for the Dodgers’ non-performers to learn something new, but they are not there yet. That’s sort of the point. The stats that I cited yesterday don’t lie – the bench guys/AAA guys aren’t producing (except Beaty) and the same is true with most of the bullpen flotsam like Santana (who was mercifully sent down yesterday).
Yes – the Dodgers are winning. But they are winning mostly because the starting pitching is better than everyone else’s. It’s great that they are winning – and when Bellinger, Seager, McKinstry, Gonsolin et al return they will obviously improve.
Just because a player is on the Dodgers doesn’t make him good. Being a fan doesn’t mean checking your brain in at the door. Just because they are winning doesn’t mean that a Dodgers’ player is good either.
Agree, the bench players thrust into these roles aren’t as great as those in the past (Joc, Kike, Freese, etc.)
But they will improve. Other guys will get healthy. The younger people will develop.
Even though these bullpen games are working, they are tough on the games on both sides of ’em.
There’s been so much contrast in the way I see things and what I’ve read from some posters that my comments of late are rarer and not so much about baseball. I’ve gotten tired of defending Kershaw and Jansen and others. Stats are one thing but I’ll put my eyes up against any and know I can read pretty damn good. I’m not saying I know baseball better than anyone but I can see who to dance with. Sometimes I’ll take a shining to an overachiever but there’s a lot that can come from that sort. Dodgers have proven they can beat the best as well as be beaten by the worse. This tean is probably the best ever Dodgers but they’ve always been the team I cheered for even when they were the worse. I don’t rate Padres as #1! They’re only visiting that mark momentarily.
It is not the same to be the best team and have the best record, right now the SD assholes have the best record, but they are not yet at the level of being the best team!
And I still don’t understand why so many complaints about Pujols’ signing, he didn’t come to LA to be the savior, the clean up batter, or to be an RBI machine, he came to be part of the team, to be a mentor, a leader
Unlike previous seasons, the Dodgers don’t need a veteran player who’s been there before and won the World Series to show the team how to win. They’ve been to the Series 3 times in the past 4 years and won it all last year. They have several seasoned veterans, including the likes of Kershaw, Turner, Jansen and Betts who can serve in the role of mentor.
What the Dodgers need now is a player who can hit or play the field or run the bases. Pujols unfortunately doesn’t appear to be able to do any of these things any more. He has been a -2.3 bWAR player since the beginning of 2017 and has already posted a -.3 bWAR since joining the Dodgers.
I would agree that he hasn’t been there very long and is playing more than anticipated, but the reason that the negative assessment of Pujols probably isn’t premature is that he hasn’t been good since 2016.
Dodgers: Doc Confirms Cody Bellinger Will Be in the Lineup on Saturday
by Brook Smith
Dodgers fans have been waiting a long time for their lineup to be back at full health. With so many injuries that have torn through their entire roster, getting the key guys back has long been a goal for the franchise. They’re getting a step closer to that this weekend.
The Dodgers announced on Friday afternoon that Cody Bellinger will be making a return. The former NL MVP is going to be in the Dodgers lineup on Saturday and Sunday playing against the Giants. This will be his first appearance since the second series of the year against Oakland.
Bellinger will immediately slot back into centerfield to give Chris Taylor some time away from the outfield. CT3 has spent most of his time out there since he went down with the fracture in his leg. That also allows Dave Roberts to shift some guys around as necessary
Gross matchup of the day: Padres at Astros.
I have to root for the Padres to clean their clock. There is no team I hate more than the Asswipes of Houston. For the rest of the year(if they don’t play Asswipes) I’ll root against the Padres.
likewise
No matter what, even if the bullpen gets on a somewhat roll like recently, this is not a good bullpen, it’s got it’s flaws. Especially without Gonsolin joining it.
Just got home this evening. Watched the game and a couple of things really stand out. Mookie is not Mookie right now. Nuese, Tsutsugo, Peters, do not belong in the majors. At least Pujols gets a hit now and then I am not the least impressed with any of these guys. Tsutsugo went ofer again. Has yet to hit anything hard. Nuese had a ball hit over his head that sealed the loss tonight. An outfielder probably would have caught it. Jansen was a bit wobbly and it cost them. Treinen had a bad outing too. But other than that the BP looked ok. Offense missed a lot of opportunities. But McKinstry and Belli should both be back this weekend. Albert almost hit it out, put props to Tauchman for a great catch.
Couldn’t have said it better myself. You were right on the money.
The Giants awarded the game ball for their 8-5 extra-inning victory over the Dodgers to the one who contributed the most to the win, Dave Roberts.
Dave still hasn’t figured out that the worst MLB pitcher to bring in in an extra-inning game these days is Kenley Jansen, the MLB-worst at holding runners, and worries until he loses control of the game.
Dave also got big extra points for managing to have Sheldon Neuse in right field defensively in the 10th inning instead of Gold Glove right fielder Mookie Betts (who would absolutely have caught that ball that scored 2 runs).
But Dave really got genius points for having ALBERT PUJOLS deployed as the gift runner on 2nd base in the 10th. I heard that several Giants players and coaches actually peed their pants in the dugout, trying not to laugh.
Unwashed
Just read your post and had to do a double take.
I went to bed at the top of the 9th thinking it was done. ((about 6am here).
Just been on Dodgers.com to watch the highlights. Barnes comes through massively only for his moment to be ruined.
What a deflating defeat.