“Yeah, but it was against a AAA pitcher”

You can say that and you would be correct, but you would not be right. There is a whole lot more to it than “it was a AAA pitcher.” Failure causes doubt. Success breeds confidence. It doesn’t matter whether it was a AAA pitcher or Cy Young, when a player or a team breaks out and scores runs. The fact that they broke out is the prime consideration.

Confidence breeds confidence. Confidence is king! Even if it was against an AAAA pitcher. Julio Urias pitched 7 innings and allowed just 1 run while striking out 10 and walking NO ONE! OK, that is good, but what about the offense? 16 Runs! Sixteen! Wow! Beaty drove in 7, but Pollock drove in 8! Holy Mackeral!

It doesn’t matter if you score 16 runs against an AAAA, AAA, AA, or A Pitcher. The end result is that you scored 16 runs. Period! The Dodgers have not done that in a couple of years. What are the odds that (at a minimum) AJ Pollock and Matt Beaty have a little more confidence right about now? Confidence is a real thing. I proclaim that this slump is over. (I hope)

I am headed up to “the region” today. For the uninitiated, that is Northwestern Indiana, which is on Chicago time. It’s business and my GM and I have to visit a dealer in St. John, Indiana. As we speak, the Dodgers have traveled from Milwaukee to Chicago for a three-game series. I am sure they were on a luxury bus. It’s a short one-hour trip! I love Milwaukee… Chicago, not so much! Normally, I would attend games in Milwaukee and Chicago, but I refuse to do so this year. Rob Manfred and MLB are dumbasses… however, I digress!

No one has more wins than the Dodgers this year. Forget the moaning and the groaning! This is still the best team in baseball. That’s what I believe. After yesterday’s onslaught, the Dodgers are just 3 runs behind the Reds for the most runs in baseball and they improved their team BA to .240. They still lead all of MLB in OB%.

Even after the rough stretch, the Dodgers are still #1 in the power ratings. Here’s what MLB said:

1. Dodgers (1 last week)

The Dodgers have had a rough past couple of weeks, but even with the injuries piling up and the losses coming in bunches, it wasn’t enough to deter our panel from sticking to the theory that overall, the Dodgers are still the best team in baseball (though this time it wasn’t a unanimous selection). The Dodgers did have a good day Sunday, piling up 16 runs while watching Julio Urías strike out 10 Brewers batters over seven innings. But prior to that, over that stretch, the Dodgers went 3-10 and slashed .185/.310/.308 while scoring 3.4 runs per game. And their injured list looks a little like a CVS receipt — it goes on for a while.

What About 2022?

  1. Betts RF
  2. Muncy 1B
  3. Turner 3B
  4. Bellinger CF
  5. Smith 2B
  6. Busch DH
  7. Ruiz C
  8. McKinstry LF
  9. Amaya SS

In the above scenario, Corey Seager walked and I put Max at #2 because of his high OB%. Who knows, but it could happen…

Hypnotized

This article has 52 Comments

  1. The first couple of weeks of the season I was hoping AF would give Seager a ten-year $30+ million per contract to remain a Dodger for his entire career. However, if the Seager we’re seeing the past two weeks is the Seager he is I might have to reconsider that logic.

    His defense is suspect and he will definitely need to make a position switch within the next two seasons if he’s to remain a Dodger. 3b or 1b, but he’s too big and lumbering for the position and his range doesn’t look so good to the naked TV eye.

    Good win yesterday now lets attack the Cubs.

    1. Seager will not commit to 10 years with a team that plans to have him move off shortstop in the next couple of years. He wants to be a shortstop and some team will give him the money and the chance to do just that.
      I don’t think that team will be the Dodgers.

    2. A player who only hits cannot be worth 30M per year, the players who are worth that are the players who are good at hitting and fielding.

  2. LF & SS are way off.

    I think you have to re-sign Taylor [at the All-Star break] and probably bring back Kershaw.

    You can put Smith at 2b if you slide Lux to SS.

    If you bring back Seager it’s probably for 3b; Turner to DH or job-share at 1b with Muncy, who can also slide to 2b.

    I like the forward thinking.

    Only Britain soldiers on.

    1. It’s unusual, but I think Lux is better at short than 2nd. I haven’t seen him that much at short but I like what I see. He looks less stiff and mechanical there and plays more confidently. Either way, he needs to hit.

  3. Dylan Hernandez of the Times disagrees:
    “Never mind their 16-4 victory over the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday, which was only their fourth win in 14 games. The Dodgers have major league problems.

    ‘Their bullpen is still unreliable, their bench is short on weapons, their defense is shaky and their offense is reverting to the feast-or-famine approach it displayed before they acquired Mookie Betts.

    “The offense will come around when Betts and Corey Seager resume hitting. But the other areas? Those could require outside help. Long term, the most obvious problem is in the bullpen.

    “The Dodgers have also been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball, as they rank near the bottom in several metrics. Seager has looked particularly limited at shortstop. He has never been a Gold Glove contender, but the Dodgers had made him an adequate defender in previous seasons by positioning him where opposing hitters are likely to bat the ball.

    “So long as Betts recovers physically and Seager rediscovers his offensive rhythm, the Dodgers will score runs again, even if they aren’t facing a rookie who hadn’t pitched in an official game in two years. That, combined with the best rotation in the majors, should be enough for them to win another division title.

    Except success here is defined by a World Series championship, and realizing this larger ambition will require them to focus on the small details — their relief pitching, their pinch-hitting, their defense. They have five months to figure them out.”

  4. When Bellinger and Mckinstry come back, the bench becomes more formidable. I can see Beaty and Pollock Sharing left field.

    At what point do the Dodgers put Taylor in as Seager’s late inning replacement at short?

  5. I am beginning to wonder about Muncy. I like him and I want him to play. He really did not hit last year and he is not hitting this year. He needs to bat 8th until he finds his stroke. In the mean time Beaty needs to play at first, third and the outfield. Taylor need to play the outfield, second and ss. Rios should only pinch hit. Barnes plays once every five days. Only when Kershaw pitches.

    Our pitchers need to do a better job of holding runners on. Right now teams are going to run on us. Every single by San Diego turned into a double. Jansen especially cannot hold runners close. The good news is that our flaws are being exposed early.

    I still do not like Doc and probably never will. He just over manages for me to like him.

    It is good that we have depth. Most teams could not of survived with the injuries we had so far. I am afraid May is gone for the year. So Gonsolin will probably take over the5th starter position.

  6. Boston was absolutely terrible last year. They are in the midst of a tear down and rebuild. They fired the GM and started blowing up the team, shedding payroll and stars owed big money (Betts) for prospects or young players under team control (Verdugo). It’ll be years before they even sniff at being competitive again.

    Oops.

    They’re 17-12, same record as the Dodgers, and I personally think the power rankings are wrong and they are the best team in baseball right now (although it’s pretty close). They are 4th in ERA, and 3rd in FIP. They are 5th in team WAR and 3rd in wRC+.

    They are consistently good across all categories. I also never would’ve guessed CIN would have the best offense in baseball. They couldn’t hit their way out of a paper bag last year. Ok, I guessed right that PIT would be terrible, but their relief corps has been pitching well.

    Baseball is hard to predict.

    The Dodgers offense has been pretty bad the last couple of weeks. It’s cratered. The season’s over. Seager’s done. Best to let him go in free agency and put offensive juggernaut Lux in as SS and play a catcher at 2nd. The Dodgers wRC+ the last couple of weeks has been 92. That’s pretty bad, good for 20th in baseball during this stretch.

    For comparison’s sake, however, the Padres have had a wRC+ of 80 over that span. They’ve completely tanked. Houston, who were destroying the ball at the beginning of the year and seemed like they were back to form have had the same wRC+ as the Dodgers. The Cubs have led baseball in offense the last couple of weeks, as have the Diamondbacks. Who would’ve guessed that? The Cubs were dead last a couple of weeks ago.

    The Giants are leading the Dodgers in the division race by .5 games. The rivalry is back. Zaidi has worked his sabre geek magic and constructed an ace pitching staff and scrappy offense out of spare parts and retreads. Meanwhile, AF blew it again by not properly building a reliable relief corps. The Dodgers relievers are terrible because they don’t pitch “clean innings” every time, or something. Anything less than “clean innings” every time (perfection) is an unmitigated failure. If the Dodger pitchers would just pitch “clean innings” every single inning in every single game, they’d be pretty good. …oh, and hit lots of grand slams, too.

    For the year the Dodgers are 2nd in relief corps ERA at 2.74 (right behind Oakland’s 2.72), They are 2nd in FIP and 2nd in reliever WAR.

    Ok, but they’ve been really bad the last couple of weeks. True. They are 10th in reliever WAR, 15th in ERA and 11th in FIP at 3.73.

    Meanwhile, the Padres relievers have had a 4.26 FIP, and the Giants, our pitching nemesis, have had a FIP of 5.50 – good for dead last in all of baseball.

    For the year, the Giants offense ranks 22nd out of 30 teams. The win/loss record of the Giants you’re looking at right now is a mirage. It is unsustainable. The underlying statistics suggest this won’t last. I’m not even convinced the Padres are that good. They have struggled worse than the Dodgers.

    Still really bummed about May. Watching his progress was one of the things I liked most about watching the Dodgers. The Dodgers still have the best string of four starting pitchers in baseball, IMO – all four are capable of shutting down an opposing team. Gonsolin is the natural guy to take May’s spot. “But we need him as a closer!” He’s a starting pitcher, and he was good at it last year.

    1. i dunno about lux. besides the current lack of hitting, to me his throwing arm is suspect. seems like AT LEAST half his throws to first even from second are just plain bad or at least cause 1b to reach for them. he has A LOT to clean up b4 i trust him.

  7. Beaty struggled the first part of the year but has been on a tear since returning, maybe Rios could benefit the same way. Beaty makes the majors at a relatively later age, has a game that very few major leaguers will ever achieve with 7 rbi’s and yet doesn’t lead his team in rbi’s that game. Baseball is a strange but wonderful game.

  8. Predictions, speculation, pessimism, optimism, a month from now a good deal of it will have been crushed by reality. That CIN has the best offense in baseball is exhibit A .

  9. I’m getting a little tired of all the dumping on Seager. I want to see you all eat it when he gets hot again. Which he will SOON.

  10. I agree. Seager isn’t this bad defensively, the contract year or his current slump could be getting into his head. I also agree that Lux has looked good at SS in limited action. It took Verdugo a couple of years to figure out how to hit MLB pitching. Lux just played in his 61st MLB game. I think Lux will be fine eventually on both sides of the ball and might have to take over for Seager at short if he signs elsewhere.

    Muncy is not a good defender at any position, but is at least passable at first base because of his range, then reach and digging abilities could be better making an average defender overall. Maybe he can handle third if he spent a lot of time there, but he’s never going to be even a good defensive second baseman. If he was, he would already bee there.

    Zmack and Taylor are serviceable middle infielders who have the chance to be very good to great utility guys. If you want to look at the future of the infield, maybe Seager moves to first or third after Turner retires. Lux and Busch up the middle. Hoese or Vargas should take the other corner spot.

    Taylor is good insurance at SS or Second Base, but he’s most valuable as a utility guy who also plays outfield. Turner and Muncy are both signed through 2022 and both have club options for 2023, so they will be here for a couple of years. I don’t see a lot changing in the infield anytime soon. They just need the guys they have step up and play to their ability. Seager is barely 27 years old, so there’s not a lot of reason to suggest his defensive decline should be this steep. I would like to see him dive for a ball or two.

    I wonder if the Padres fans are looking at Tatis’ lead leading errors and are talking about moving him off the position?

    I am looking forward to the game tonight and starting a winning streak. At least get out of there with 2 of three and repeat that formula against the Angels this weekend.

  11. Dodgers Claim Phil Bickford, Designate Mike Kickham
    By Mark Polishuk | May 3, 2021 at 1:50pm CDT

    The Dodgers have claimed right-hander Phil Bickford off waivers from the Brewers. Both teams have announced the move, with the Dodgers designating left-hander Mike Kickham for assignment to create roster space.

    1. Bickford pitched just one inning for the Brewers in 2021, to go along with his lone inning for the team last season. Twice a first-round draft pick (for the Blue Jays in 2013 and, after opting to attend college, with the Giants in 2015), Bickford’s career has been stalled by injuries and a 50-game suspension for a drug of abuse in 2017.

      The righty is still only 25 years old, however, and has yet to pitch in either Double-A or Triple-A ball. It could be that some time in a proper minor league game environment will help hone Bickford’s potential as a relief pitcher, since he recorded a whopping 53 strikeouts in 32 2/3 bullpen innings (with a 2.48 ERA) for Milwaukee’s high-A affiliate in 2019.

      1. Seems like “trading” Kickham for Bickford is a worthwhile move, and on his way out Kickham did his bit by saving us from using anyone else in the bullpen yesterday. Giving up those runs didn’t make a bit of difference in the long run, except that it probably helped remove him from a Dodger uniform.

  12. Jon Morosi
    @jonmorosi
    ·
    20m
    Source: Dustin May has some UCL damage in his right elbow, according to initial examination. #Dodgers will make official decision on how to proceed in the next 24 hours.

  13. Kickam was on the 25 man and Bickford will be on the 40 man. Who will take Kickam’s place on the 25 man before today’s game? Do they need 14 pitchers with an off day coming on Thursday? Is there any pitchers left on the taxi squad? Are they going to bring up K-Bear, Peters or Raley for an additional bat?

  14. Some UCL damage != Grade 3 sprain?

    Bobby Miller, Miguel Vargas, Andy Pages and Clayton Beeter will open at High-A Great Lakes for the Dodgers. Also on the roster: 2017 2nd-rounder Morgan Cooper, who has not pitched in four years due to repeated shoulder injuries.

    1. Tulsa’s roster (Double-A) includes IFs Busch, 2B, and Hoese, 3B.

      Others who are also on the 40 include pitchers Carillo and Andre Jackson.

      Other of note:
      Michael Grove
      Spring Training Fad Ryan Popiot
      Nolan Long
      Gus Varland
      Sleeper catcher Hunter Feduccia
      James OUtma
      Jacob Amaya
      and
      Bluto’s pet favorite: Devin Mann.

    1. Terrible news though to be expected. It looked bad from t he moment he waived to the dugout. Probably out until the 23 season. I just threw up in my mouth.

      Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Good, I hate it when they try to “treat it” like the platelet rich plasma routine. That completely ruined Chad Billingsley and Garrett Richards. Rip off the band aide, get the surgery over with and we’ll see him towards the end of next year. Thank Goodness they signed Bauer. Did they know something?

      Gonsolin coming back in a few weeks after a sore shoulder, I wonder how long he’s going to be able to last before he gets cut on. And then we still have Price and Nelson. I guess the odds on seeing Gray debut this season are pretty favorable.

      1. Price has been AWOL , since day one. That man has to start earning his paycheck.

  15. Tonight’s lineup is out. Beaty is on the bench, I assume because he had less than 8 RBI yesterday.

    Roberts is an ex-player and should know by now that a hot hitter can hit any pitcher, and to compound the problem, the Cubs are throwing a righty pitcher tonight who specializes in soft stuff. If anything Pollock should be the one to sit and Beaty should start in left.

    1. Dodgers won last year not because of Roberts but despite of him.
      Bad manager.

      Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    2. Yeah I called that out yesterday. This is a very normal lineup today sans Bellinger. Would you have sat Muncy to have Beaty in? Taylor, Lux?

      1. Probably Lux. I would play Beaty until he cools off. Maybe that’s a day, maybe a week but he’s hit well since he got back.

        1. The left side is pretty bad on D with Seags and Turner covering no ground. Right side says “hold my beer” and fields Muncy and Beaty. Max is hitting 059 and Lux 111 over the last 5 games.

  16. Yeah I just saw it on MLB TV. We All we’re hoping and praying, but pretty much knew what was going to happen. Good thing is he’s a young and strong kid and if anybody could make it back I’m sure he’ll be able to
    Godspeed BIG RED

  17. Shame about May. Pitching really well. Still has a promising future.

    Dylan Hernandez pretty much nailed the issue or should I say issues. But the Dodgers have been there before, still had pretty good seasons. Really help when Bellinger and McKinstry return.

    As for the bullpen, there is always the trade deadline. May be a pitcher or two in the minors, but tough to figure out until the minors get under way.

    Hard to know what to expect from David Price. It would be nice if he stepped up and became a go to pitcher as a starter or in the pen.

    But it’s just the beginning of May. If this is still the case in July, might be a different story.

  18. May will hurt. We will really need our depth.

    Yesterday’s game was very enjoyable. I typically will never cheer an opposing player hitting bombs off the Dodgers. But my buddy’s brother (Jay Nottingham) hit two out yesterday for the Brewers. Southern CA kid. He was claimed off waivers earlier in the week by Seattle. About the time his plane landed in Seattle they had DFAd him and sold him back to the Brewers. He was barely back to Wisconsin when he was penciled into the starting lineup. It was great to see him hit two out. I can only say that because we scored 16 lol.

    Great game all around.

  19. Game postponed due to inclement weather. Double-Header tomorrow. Geez.

    1. The good news is with 7 inning games, we could likely get complete games out of Striker and Kersh. No need for bullpens.

  20. DODGERS CLAIM RHP PHIL BICKFORD
    LHP MIKE KICKHAM DESIGNATED FOR ASSIGNMENT

    LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles Dodgers claimed right-handed pitcher Phil Bickford from the Milwaukee Brewers and designed left-handed pitcher Mike Kickham for assignment.

    Bickford, 25, has appeared in two Major League games in his career, allowing six runs on six hits in 2.0 innings with the Brewers (2020-21). The right-hander was originally drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the first round (18th overall) of the 2015 First Year Player Draft out of the College of Southern Nevada. The former Oak Christian High School standout has posted an 11-8 record with a 2.98 ERA (75 ER/226.2 IP) and 277 strikeouts in five minor league seasons.

    Kickham, 32, pitched 2.0 innings for the Dodgers yesterday, allowing three runs on five hits with two strikeouts. The southpaw has spent parts of the four seasons in the Major Leagues, going a combined 1-4 with a 10.10 ERA (52 ER/46.1 IP) and 49 strikeouts with San Francisco (2013-14), Boston (2020) and Los Angeles (2021). He was originally drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the sixth round of the 2010 First Year Player Draft out of Missouri State University.

  21. The Dodgers’ probables for the series at Wrigley Field were Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw and Bauer. The team has since announced Kershaw will start the first game of the doubleheader, and Bauer gets the ball in the second. Buehler has been bumped back to series finale.

  22. The Tulsa Drillers AA complete Opening Roster is below.

    Pitchers: Yadier Alvarez_, Michael Boyle_, Justin Bruihl, Gerardo Carrillo, Max Gamboa, Michael Grove, Justin Hagenman, Andre Jackson, Nolan Long*, Darien Nunez, Aaron Ochsenbein, Ryan Pepiot, Nick Robertson, John Rooney, Gus Varland, Bryan Warzek, Mark Washington, Zach Willeman and Guillermo Zuniga.

    Catchers: Steve Berman, Hunter Feduccia and Juan Zabala#.

    Infielders: Jacob Amaya, Michael Busch, Clayton Daniel, Kody Hoese, Devin Mann and Ryan Noda.

    Outfielders: Donovan Casey, Romer Cuadrado, Jeren Kendall, and Carlos Rincon.

    1. Yadier Alvarez ??? I thought he was out of the system. I met him in 2017. Didn’t think he was still with the Dodgers.

      1. Yeah, was wondering what happened to him. Was there a single Cuban player the Dodgers signed that actually panned out? I don’t even consider Puig as he’s out of baseball while in his prime.

      2. Yadier Alvarez:

        I admit I may not have all my facts correct but I seem to recall about a year ago he pretty much decided to throw in the towel on his career. Got his money and he just didn’t want to play the game any more. He’d always been very immature and at that point the Dodgers were ready to say good-bye to him as well.

        Sometime after that, after having talked to some people he respected and realizing he missed the game, he decided to give it another try with an improved attitude and the Dodgers were willing to take him back. Unfortunately, while trying to get back in shape he suffered an injury which pretty much put an end to things last year, and of course there was no minor league season anyway.

        Looks like he’s going to give it another try again this season and, as mentioned above, he’ll start at Tulsa. He’s still only 25 so you never know. He may be the first player to be voted Comeback Player of the Year without ever having been there in the first place.

        1. Alvarez might have had the best are talent wise I have ever seen in the minors. Electric. Could have been a true superstar but the mindset ruined him. If he gets it together this time and the arm is still as it once was look out. Frontline starter or closer talent.
          Still bummed over May and Graterol will get an MRI today too. Would not be surprised if Dr.Elatrrache will perform double duty on big Dodgers arms next week.

          Go Dodgers!!!!!!!!!!!

      1. C Will Smith:
        354 AB, 67R, 93H, 24 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 76 RBI, 3 SB, 50 BB, 87 SO, .263 BA, .367 OBP, .556 SLG,145 0PS+
        3.8 WAR, 0.6 DWAR.
        Ruiz has to match or exceed that, can he do it?

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