Barring injury or some other type of Spring-Training setback the Dodgers’ Starting Rotation should look like this:
- Clayton Kershaw
- Striker Buehler
- Trevor Bauer
- David Price
- Julio Urias (providing he can overcome his first-inning blues)
However, David Price still has not pitched and with every passing day, it becomes more likely that he starts the season on the DL, which then opens up a spot for May or Gonsolin. It’s been 16 months since Price has pitched so the question is whether he can really be counted on in the rotation. I have no clue, but the Dodgers are easing him in very slowly.
We also know that Brandon Morrow will not be ready to start the season and it appears that Joe Kelly also may not be ready (or even if he will ever be ready). With the minor league season starting in May, maybe the team breaks camp with Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, and Jimmy Nelson in the bullpen. Instead of having guys who can go one, maybe two innings in the bullpen, they may have three guys who can go two, three, or four innings at a time and then let them finish their outing in the bullpen to keep stretched out. It’s an idea that could work.
The jury is still out on Scott Alexander and he did nothing in his last outing to convince anyone he should be on the team. On the other hand, Corey Knebel looked much better in his second outing, striking out two of the four batters he faced. Victor Gonzalez is the real deal but the Bazooka is being held back for reasons that are not being disclosed. It’s also possible that he will not open the season on the 26-man roster.
Garrett Cleavinger has not shown enough (as yet) to warrant a spot, but we do know that Blake Treinen and Kenley Jansen will have spots. Garrett looked good in his latest outing. Dennis Santana has done nothing to show he can’t pitch at this level this Spring.
That leaves the pitching staff looking something like this:
- Kershaw
- Buehler
- Bauer
- Price
- Urias
- Jansen
- Treinen
- Gonzalez
- Knebel
- May
- Gonsolin
- Nelson
Of course, it is early and there is a lot of ground to cover AND David Price has not pitched as yet. I could be way off in my predictions, but it’s something to think about. The bullpen includes just one lefty. If you have three guys who are capable of going multiple innings like May, Gonsolin, and Nelson, then you don’t need 13 or 14 pitchers. You could start the season with 12 pitchers (feel free to add some later) and 14 position players.
That means that this could be the roster for the position players:
- Smith
- Barnes
- Muncy
- Lux
- Seager
- Turner
- Rios
- Pollock
- Taylor
- Bellinger
- Betts
- McKinstry
- Peters
- Neuse or Davidson (which adds another arm to the pen, but they would have to create a roster spot for Davidson)
I don’t think it makes much sense to have Matt Beaty on the roster, as the Dodgers have plenty of LH hitters. I would think that Noisy makes it as he can play all over the infield and LF as well. He has logged significant innings at SS, as well as 1B, 2B, and 3B. If the Dodgers carry 14 position players, Sheldon makes it. In not, both Noisy and Beaty are not on the team.
Gavin Lux and DJ Peters have earned the right (so far) to make the team. Since Davidson is not on the 40-man, he hasn’t and Sheldon is on the bubble. There is little doubt that Rios and McKinstry are also on the squad, but it still boils down to: Will the Dodgers carry 12 or 13 pitchers?
It’s looking more and more like there will be fans at a much greater clip by May or June and I can’t wait to see the new stadium renovations. My wife and I will be getting the vaccine shortly. I was advised to wait for a while as I still have antibodies from five months ago. I guess I won’t go for the trifecta!
Gavin Lux
Speaking of Gavin Lux, he looks entirely different this pre-season. His swing seems less complicated and still. However, the biggest difference is his demeanor – he looks very confident and confidence is something that changes everything! I am seeing an All-Star 2B in the making. That’s what my eyes tell me. If he does become that guy, man is this team loaded?
You bring up good points. So far we as fans and pundits have gone on about how deep and talented the team is. We have David Price, which is like signing a free agent pitcher and having two top end pitchers on the team – Bauer and Price. On the other hand, he’s in his mid 30s, hasn’t pitched at a really high level since the 18 World Series, and hasn’t pitched in over a year.
We’re looking at very rosy scenarios because we’re fans. The reality is usually different.
I also think the Dodgers have disrupted the thinking on managing a season. I don’t think there is as much of a sense of urgency in starting the season at peak form, or even trying to win every game, and with their creative use of the DL (or whatever it’s called) with starting pitchers, their philosophy is more about tweaking, tinkering and managing performance long term and orchestrating a peak for the postseason. The Dodgers might not be operating on all cylinders by design and deliberately bring Price or Kelly along slowly or stretch out May in AAA, but in six month’s time they and the team should hopefully be at peak form.
I honestly don’t know who the last bench piece will be. I was initially thinking Noisy would be the front runner – his offensive ceiling is potentially high and he plays above average defense at multiple infield positions – and still think they would opt for a right hander in either Noisy or DJ, but management knows Beaty and knows what to expect.
I still think the bench is one weakness the Dodgers have. So what if Bellinger is not quite ready to play? What if Betts gets nicked and needs to go on the DL? Besides Taylor (who isn’t the best defensive CF), who can play center or right? I think Pollock’s CF days are over. Peters is really the only option, he’s a right handed bat with power, but he’s likely to struggle against MLB pitching.
I do think the team will miss Kike just for his defense and clutch bat, but for 8 mil it was time to let other guys play.
I mentioned this before but he drew no interest in here, but I’ll mention it again, Price did take a year off from competition, that isn’t always a good thing, especially has one gets on in years of their career. He could very likely have lost the edge required to be a top-quality pitcher. Time will tell, but his slow roll out could have to due with what I have just mentioned.
Probably add Santana.
Don’t think we’d carry Peters AND Neuse. I have Peters & Beaty competing for the last spot.
Peter’s has more upside than Beaty and he can play CF to ease Belly back in. So far he looks ready to take that last spot. A lot less swing and miss this year
Mark,
Glad to read that you plan on getting the c19 shot.
Expect Alexander will be on roster to start season as second lefty and that team will carry thirteen pitchers. I would prefer that Dodgers go with six starters at start of season and send Gonsolin to OKC to return as first DL replacement. Like Beaty, a heady player, but Neuse and Peters give them better depth in IF and OF respectively.
IT’S very important to win the division since there will only be 5 teams make the playoffs. Really liked last years eight team playoffs. Also in favor of DH in both leagues.
Good article, Mark. I agree with the majority of your choices. I would add Beautiful ty to your bench though. I like his bat.
Oops , I meant Beaty, not Beautiful although his hitting is.
David Price will follow Urias on the mound today. They are being careful with him, but the videos of him throwing have been impressive. I think he will be ready by opening day. Gear for cold weather. Colorado has warmed up some, but Denver got snow just the other day. April in the Rockies is not a warm place. Santana is quietly making a case to be on the team and Alexander is pitching himself off. But Vesia looked much better his second outing. Price as it stands right now would pitch game 4. Kershaw has stated he prefers to pitch the home opener. Vaccine is a snap Mark. I got mine a couple of weeks ago and have had no ill effects at all. I have seen the improvements to the old ball yard on TV, but I really hope to see them in person sometime.
Good start to today’s game. 4 hits and 3 runs in the first. Pollock and Beaty with RBI hits. For those of you who think Beaty is simply a bubble guy, his career BA with RISP is over .350. Valuable piece off of the bench, and one of the better PH the Dodgers have. Urias has had two really quick innings.
Perfect game through 4. Seager with a 3 run shot in the 2nd. Both Price and Urias looked great.
Mark, Julio was checking in to see what you thought of that first inning!
It took him 4 pitches – he should have done it in 3! 😉
He’s a bum!
Bear, thanks for the updates on our Dodger players who left us this year. I just saw that today so far, Joc is hitting 364with 6 RBI’s and one of his hits today off of a LHRP. Not bad eh? Hernandez also wowing them in Boston.
Joc is happy to be away from the Dodgers constant use of analytics. Kike is playing like an all star. But remember it is only spring. I do wish them good luck. We only play the Cubs 6 times and they do not play Boston at all. This season they are playing the AL West.
Mark makes a good point that having several stretched out arms in the pen could be helpful. It makes me keep thinking that scheduled piggy back relievers might come in to play this season. Imagine Urias for 4/5/6 innings, then Dustin May for the rest of the game… Or Price followed by Gonsolin.
This sort of setup could keep 7 arms stretched out to where they could start, not waste the bullets of guys who belong in MLB (May and Gonsolin) and give the rest of the relievers a likely off day. Honestly, I’m surprised something like this hasn’t been tried before, but not many teams have ever been quite so deep in top-notch starting pitchers.
It could all be a moot point if Kelly, Graterol or anyone else ends up starting season on IL. It should be a long season, there is no reason to rush anybody back.
Position player bench is seems sure have Barnes, Rios and Taylor. Those three can backup all 8 positions. So, who best compliments the rest of the roster? No more David Freeze or Chase Utley types, so another question is how best to help younger players continue to develop? On MLB roster ping hitting and spot starting, or at alt sight or AAA getting regular hacks? A DH and 28 man roster sure would be nice.
Kelly will most likely start the season on the dL. What a waste! He doesn’t help us but he runs his mouth like he is important. LA can’t trade him because he has no value. AF can’t drop him because of salary. The only thing we can hope is he gets hot in the playoffs. He has a couple of times in the playoffs. Both against LA: 1. Knocked Hanley out of the playoffs 2. Killed the Dodgers in World Series vs Boston.
Don’t worry.
Be happy.
Pedro Baez placed on the IL by the Astros. They sign Jake Odorizzi. He gets 20 mil over 2 years.
Really enjoy visiting here since I stumbled upon the site just recently…
Agree that Peters deserves a shot–but Beatty continues to hit. He certainly hasn’t earned a demotion, so I hope Friedman is able to swap him for a prospect. And if Jimmy Nelson looks good, is there really room for him in Dodgers uniform?
My fondest baseball wish is for a Freeway Series in October. The Angels have a few decent prospects, so….???
Oh, good call on the vaccine. As with masks, public health works best with the public on board.