Outfield is Set
Cody Bellinger in CF is is allegedly healthy and should be ready for another “monster season” after shoulder surgery. Mookie Betts has RF nailed down for the next dozen years, so that is set. LF belongs to AJ Pollock as long as he can stay healthy. He hasn’t done that much, but when he did, he was All-Star Caliber. The outfield is set. The only question is who will be the 4th outfielder. That equation might be decided by who wins the job at the only position that is not set!
Catcher is Set
Catcher is set with Will Smith and Austin Barnes. If one goes down, there is Kaybear Ruiz. C is set. Will Smith is in the discussion when you decide who the top catcher in baseball is… and he might be the very best! End of discussion.
Infield is Almost Set
Three positions are manned by All-Stars – Justin Turner at 3B, Corey Seager at SS, and Max Muncy at 1B. All could be Solid to Spectacular in 2021. That leaves the only position to be decided as second base. There are several candidates and I will list them in the order of probability:
Chris Taylor – About 2/3 of the teams in baseball would improve their lot at 2B with a CT3. He is probably one of the Top 10 2B in baseball… except that he is so much more than a second-baseman.
Gavin Lux – While not technically a rookie, he might as well be one. He has been rated a TOP PROSPECT, but for parts of two seasons, he has struggled to fulfill that promise, while showing “flashes” of greatness. Gavin Lux could be an All-Star or a Big Bust. 2021 seems to me to be the year that defines him. The Dodgers would love for Gavin to step up this Spring and win the second base job, but it won’t be “handed” to him. He will have to get the job the old-fashioned way: He will have to earn it!
Sheldon Neuse – In case you don’t know, his name is pronounced “Noisy.” Don’t count this guy out! He has reached the point in his career where he is ready to rake. He could be a Justin Turner/Max Muncy-type turnaround project. He has a great chance of making the team.
Michael Busch – This guy has a “hit tool” that is near the TOP of al second basemen, but is seems very unlikely that he will have the opportunity to win the 2B job this Spring. If Gavin Lux tanks, then he has a shot.
Zach McKinstry – It seems very unlikely to me that McKinstry wins the 2B job, but you never know. Zach is an underdog and will be 26 in April. He’s a LH hitter and a guy who can play all over the IF and OF, but not at the defensive level of Kike… however, it would not be from a lack of trying. I personally root for guys like this. I think Zach’s best shot is to share the super-sub job with a RH hitter like CT3 or Noisy.
Who Prevails? I hope it is Gavin Lux and that he steps up and wins the 2B job and harnesses all his potential, but if he doesn’t, there are several viable options. If Lux wins the 2B job, then CT3… and probably McKinstry become the RH/LH “supersubs.” However, as we all know, ths is baseball where almost anything can happen. That’s what makes it magical!
My goal for this season is simple: I want to go to at least one game at every level and see the Dodgers win a second straight World Series. That’s it! Maybe we will see fans in the stand sooner than later. I am sick of this pandemic crap! If you are honest, there is not much difference in death rates between the states who are “closed” and “open.” Be smart, be safe, and think for yourselves.
Dodger Photos
These photos are compliments of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Jon SooHoo:
The rest of the photos can be found HERE.
Great piece, Mark. A+.
I can’t tell how much of JT’s thinning out is his beard but I see it too.
Also, I think that’s Victor Gonzalez with Urias in that photo.
My goals are to repeat and keep developing the prospects.
You are right. I didn’t look closely enough. V-Gon is mad at me!
Rumor is that Preller is working on a major deal. Some discussion about Hadler and possibly Yellich.
Yelich has a comparatively team friendly deal for an MVP caliber player at 26 mil till 2028. If I’m the Brewers I’m asking for Mackenzie Gore plus a lot more.
The Padres already have Manny and Tatis under expensive long term deals for a smaller market team.
Preller might be crazy enough to make that deal.
Now that would be something! They have the prospect capital to get that done. But Brewer fans would be up in arms. That’s a winnable division
Very pleased to see Kenley looking trim. Always believed he Pitches better when he’s lighter.
That being said, he always turns up for ST looking fit, and then puts on the weight over the season.
Same really regarding JT. Hamstrings are his Achilles Heal (sorry), so conditioning is very important.
At times watching him run the bases is a scary experience.
If Julio makes the Rotation, is he or Price our 4 or 5? May 6, Gonzo 7???
What a great dilemma.
I’m rooting for Gavin Lux big time.
I don’t think it matters much who is 4 or 5 at the beginning of the season, only in the playoffs – #5 is in the bullpen in the playoffs. The playoff rotation will depend on who is healthy and how they are pitching.
I would expect the initial rotation to be
Kershaw
Buehler
Bauer
Price
Urias
though Doc may do some variation of
Kershaw (L)
Buehler (R)
Price (L)
Bauer (R)
Urias (L)
? 6. Gonsonlin (R)
for the R/L thing.
If those five is not ready to start the season due to an injury (a la Kershaw 2020 etc) than May or Gonsolin takes the spot. If all five are healthy than May likely starts in OKC to work on his off speed pitches.
I expect Gonsolin as the long swing man in the BP with whether he starts game 6 determined by how long our starting pitchers lasted in Colorado where we open with a 4 game series. If Doc initially plans a 6 man rotation then Gonsolin could be on the traveling squad and activated for game 6 in Oakland. I would not be surprised if we start with a 9 man BP and a 4 man bench.
There are off days on the schedule after 7 and 10 games but then there are 22 games with only 1 off day. I would look for some variation of a 6 man rotation during that stretch.
Injuries and “injuries” will take care of a lot of these questions. There will be plenty of innings available and I would expect the usual number of about 8 starters with significant starts. Interested to see how Nelson is this year. Gray may also get some starts later in the summer.
If the Brewers could get their Top 6 prospects , they should do it
Rumors are just that until they aren’t Funny, Smith is rated one of the best in the league, and after his rookie year many were questioning if he was the real deal or not. Ruiz still not in camp with visa problems. All the numbers have been assigned now. Neuse is #56, Fed-Ex got #18. Morrow is #23 now. I thought I recognized the guy driving the truck in the video. It is Cy from Duck Dynasty, Rucker does a good job on this tune, but I like the original by Old Crow Medicine Show. Song was co-written by the founder of Old Crow and Bob Dylan in 1973.
Great analysis, Mark!
Concise and to the point.
I believe in Gavin Lux to win the second base job, but he absolutely needs to earn it. The good news is there are solid options if Gavin is not ready, especially with CT3 as a proven major leaguer. I also enjoy watching some of the young and new players in spring training. There will be fierce competition for the 25th and 26th roster spots. My guess would be McKinstry and Neuse. But a spot could just as easily go to Beaty, Reks, Raley, Ruiz, Peters or an extra pitcher. And Matt Davidson could be a sleeper as a former first round pick who hit 46 HRs in two seasons with the white Sox. Maybe the Dodger system can turn him into a right handed Max Muncy.
Justin is still overweight, he just looks thinner because he trimmed his beard so much. ☺☺☺
Good stuff Mark. Sure looks to me like that 4th outfielder spot would be the 13th position player and battled between Reks, Rayley, Beaty, DJ Peters and Neuse who I hear can play some outfield. Or maybe someone out of the blue. Pretty had for those mid 20″s players to earn a job on this team and time’s running out.
I can see 13 pitchers without batting an eye. The 13th to me looks like Alexander initially, if Kelly is sore. (or gone)
Bill Ripkin on MLB was talking about Belli yesterday saying he injured his shoulder on the homer celebration. We all know this isn’t the whole story as it’s happened before and moved him to center to keep him from diving at 1st.
Juan Toribio reports on MLB that Belli is done forearm bumping for good and the following:
Bellinger barrelled the ball 13% of the time in 2019, but that number dropped to 9.4% last season. His average exit velocity also decreased from 91.1 mph in ‘19 to a career-low 89.3 mph in ‘20. A healthy shoulder should help.”
I hope so. I’m on record here of mentioning that with Belli’s complicated swing with lots of moving parts he relies so much on timing and athleticism. A healthy shoulder can’t hurt.
I case you are wondering, I didn’t omit McKinstry. Here are my 12 position locks:
1 Betts R
2 Seager L
3 Turner R
4 Bellinger L
5 Smith R
6 Muncy L
7 Pollock R
8 Lux L
9 Barnes R
10.Taylor R
11. Rios L
12. McKinstry L
13. ????????????????????????
Neuse over Beaty. He’s shown decent defense
With 25 games of big league experience? Give me a break. He has a lot more to show to convince me he is even ready.
Nonsense. Even though Neuse has barely played, can only play 3rd and 2nd base and can’t play the outfield, he’s going to be the next Max Muncy. Beaty needs to be cut.
Nonsense to you maybe, he hasn’t proved anything. Beaty can hit. He has proved that. He has to prove he can be that player. Ain’t gonna happen just because you say so. He might be that guy, and he might not. Leave the brainstorming to the guys who know what they are doing.
I have been a long time reader and started rooting for the team in Brooklyn, Duke Snider was my favorite when growing up. I’ve enjoyed all of the Championships. My wife and I saw World Series games in 2017 and 2018 which had been a long time dream of ours. Really looking forward to another great season this year.
Duke was my favorite too Jim. One of my prized possessions is an autographed 8X10 I got of him at a card show in Orange county back in the 80’s. He was really nice and fun to talk to.
I think there will only be a four man bench with an added pitcher in the pen. Pitching depth is the key to 21 season. Tough break for Beaty and company.
If they keep the 13 pitcher limit for the 26 man roster, that is not happening. I do not like the idea of only a 4 man bench without the DH, which so far it looks like that is going to be the case.
I’ve read in at least two or three different places that there will be no limit on number of pitchers this year and anyone (including position players) can be used to pitch.
Still makes no sense to me to be that short on the bench.
Thanks for the very good write-up, Mark. While I am rooting for Lux and believe he can turn it around and be the 2nd base starter, I absolutely love CT3. I admire his playing skills, personality and value to the team which is huge.
Would someone please educate me as to why Ruiz is having a problem with his visa? Did he apply too late to make it on time for ST? Did he not pay enough “under the table” to get his visa? Do players like Ruiz have to apply for a visa EVERY YEAR? Can a visa be granted for MORE than ONE YEAR? How many players are there in total for the 30 teams AND their minor league teams? etc etc etc!!!
US Water Systems graphic designer is Venezuelan, so I have a little insight into this.
Venezuela is a Communist-leaning country with a great disdain for the USA, although their people would love to come to the USA. They use every opportunity to “mess with” people going to the USA and it is very common that officials have to get bribed. If they deem that the bribe is not encompassing enough, then they “slow walk” you.
I used to be on a non-profit that did work in Haiti and we carried a lot of money to bribe the police, airport inspectors, and other officials. It is distasteful, but a fact of life in many countries. It happens here too…
They have to apply every year, and every year it seems one or more of thier Latin players end up having visa problems. This year it is Ruiz and one of thier pitchers.
Thank you Mark and Bear. It gives me a lot more understanding of the situation. I assume Ruiz is not the only one with that problem.
Mike Kickham will be starting Sunday’s game against the A’s. Baseball is almost back.
Hey Bear my wife bought me a surprise spot for the Dodger’s fantasy camp in 2010. They canceled because not enough people signed up. I got to go in 2011 and it was fantastic but Duke had died earlier that year so I didn’t get to meet him. They had his locker decked but I got to meet many other Dodger greats including Sandy Koufax.
That is totally cool. I moved up here to Colorado in November of 2010. I did get to go to Camelback ranch a couple of times when I lived in Arizona. Met Rick Monday and even had a short chat with Tommy.
First time contributor and I love this site. I read the comment above about the Brewers-Padres trade rumors and had this thought.
If the Brewers are serious about trading those 2 guys I think the Dodgers should get involved and at least push the prospect price up for the Padres….if it is possible for the Dodgers to pick up those 2 guys they should do it……Muncy, Pollock, Kelly, Gonsolin and 3 prospects….perhaps Ruiz, Gray and White or Miller…..too little, too much??? The current Dodgers being offered offset Yelich’s salary a bit for the first 2 years. Jansen off the payroll next year, probably CT3 also helps set the payroll back. Yes, resigning Seager will raise payroll but Kersh resigning should lower his impact on payroll because he won’t get 32 million a year again. I am sure I have missed a lot of things to think about but I think to be able to get these two players would elevate the Dodgers to a level that would be difficult for all teams to overtake for many years…..Looking forward to another great year for the Dodgers!!!!⚾️
Gutsy trade. If you were to put yourself in the Brewer’s shoes, what would make them go for it? Not dumping on your proposal, but thinking aloud.
The Brewers are a small market team, but the’ve been consistent playoff contenders in recent years, they just signed Yelich to a long term deal, so they obviously like him and aren’t trying to get out of a contract. I personally think Yelich signed for slightly under market value for an elite player, so I guess he likes Milwaukee. I’m not sure that I see any team really being able to pry him loose.
Never would happen. 7 for 2? Not a snowball’s chance in hell. AF does not trade prospects like that.
My previous comment (if accepted) reminds me of the steals the Yankees made with the Athletics (KC) in the 50’s and 60’s…… and a little bit like the Dusty Baker trade in the 70’s…of course this also could be I am the only one that see’s things this way….⚾️⚾️
Dodgers look scary. They dominated in the short, weird 2020 season despite subpar performances from Bellinger and Muncy. Now the SPs include two more Cy Young winners.
If this team hits on all cylinders… yikes.
As for covid, “if you are honest about it,” remember that the failure is nationwide. Instead of comparing “open” and “closed” states, try comparing nations.
I grew up in OC and lived in LA for many years. But for the past four years I’ve lived in Hong Kong, just 570 miles from Wuhan, with frequent flights.
Most HK residents lived through the SARS epidemic, so people here started wearing masks LAST JANUARY. The mask has never been a political statement here, simply a public health measure. And masks actually enabled most of HK to remain “open.” (This is common throughout Asia: Just about every Asian country has managed the pandemic much better than the West. )
Masks are a big reason why HK–with a densely-packed population more than double that of OC– has recorded only 198 covid deaths. (Just looked it up.) OC, meanwhile, is approaching 3,889 deaths. When I crunch the numbers, I figure my chances of surviving covid in HK is about 40X the chance of a typical OC resident.
So please wear a mask, people. Get a blue one with a Dodgers logo.
The Asian countries that went though SARS learned from the experience. Taiwan also have fared very well, and I think when we look back at the mistakes and the success stories, we’ll have to take a close look at what they did (but no one will b/c of political pressure). On the other hand, there’s Sweden, so go figure.
I’m not an anti-masker (though I can’t stand using the mask as a symbol of virtue), and it makes sense to me that the collective use of them, especially indoors, can help slow the overall spread, I would have to think there is more to HK’s success than just mask use. The estimated U.S. mask usage is 77% vs 86% for HK. I’m sure it makes a difference, but a 9% difference matters that much? (Sweden peaked at 7% and they’ve fared pretty well, too)